analysis article 5(18), april - june, 2019 climate change · advisories prepared in local language...

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ANALYSIS

Weather and agro advisory services to farmers and

its benefits

Kailash Chand Pandey1, Ajay Kumar Singh2 This study estimates the benefits that Indian farmers derive from agriculture and weather information delivered to their mobile

phones by GEAG. Climatologist conducted a controlled randomized experiment of 20 villages in East U.P. The farmers associate

information with a number of decisions they make, and we find some evidence that treatment affected spatial arbitrage and crop

grading. But the magnitude of these effects is good. We find statistically significant average (10-25 %) effect of this information on

the crops and input cost reduced by farmers, crop value-added, crop losses resulting from rainstorms, or the likelihood of changing

crop varieties and cultivation practices. The purpose of this study is to ascertain whether agricultural and weather information

distributed through mobile phones generates economic benefits to farmers. We implement a randomized controlled trial of GEAG

offered by the largest and best-established private provider of agricultural weather information in U.P and Bihar at the time of the

experiment. Operating in U.P. and Bihar GEAG distributes weather, and crop advisory information through SMS messages. We

offered free subscription to a random sample of farmers to test whether they obtain higher yield for their agricultural product using

this information. Results are satisfactory.

INTRODUCTION

Climate change could hurt farmers’ income by up to 20%-25% in the

medium term, according to the India government latest annual economic

survey. Extreme weather events, temperature rise and lower rainfall all

threaten to derail the India government’s agenda of doubling farmers’

income across the country [Indian Annual Economic Survey 2016-17].

Agriculture is central to Indian economy. It accounts for 50% of the

country’s employment and 18% of its GDP. And in India about 80% of

farmers are small land holders – which are generally considered to mean

they have two hectares or less of land. The main crops are wheat, maize,

rice, millets, pulses, sugarcane and oil-seeds [Indian Council of

Agriculture Research].

Climate change trend in the recent India Meteorological Department

report shows that average temperatures are rising across the country and

annual rainfall is declining. It also shows a rise in the number of days

with extremely high temperatures and a corresponding decline in the

number of days with low temperatures [India Meteorological Report

2015 “Climate Change Trend India“]. Extreme temperature shocks,

when a district is significantly hotter than usual, results in a 4.7%

decline in agricultural yields. Similarly, when it rains significantly less

than usual there is a 12.8% decline. Areas lacking in irrigation are worst

affected by these extreme weather conditions. A temperature shock in an

area that is not irrigated reduces yields by 7.6%. Similarly, the effects of

extreme rainfall shocks are 14.7% higher in areas without irrigation

much larger than the effects these shocks have in irrigated districts

[National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) 2015

report]. Lower yields mean lower incomes for farmers. The report

estimated that extreme temperature shocks will reduce farmers’ incomes

by 4.3% and extreme rainfall shocks will reduce incomes by 13.7%. In a

year where temperatures are 1℃ higher, farmers’ incomes would fall by

6.2% in unirrigated districts. Similarly, in a year when rainfall levels

were 100mm less than average, farmers’ incomes would fall by 15%

[Climate Change and Agriculture, 2014]. Temperatures in India are

likely to rise by 3℃ to 4℃ by 2100 [Chaturvedi et al. 2012]. It follows

that in the absence of any adaptation by farmers, farm incomes will be

lower by 20 to 25% on average in the coming years, especially in the

unirrigated areas [International Journal of Scientific and Research

Publications, Volume 4, Issue 4, April 2014, ISSN 2250-3153]. Weather

and climate are some of the biggest risk factors impacting on farming

performance and management. Extreme weather and climate events such

as severe droughts, floods, or temperature often shocks the farming

community leading to decline in agricultural production, particularly in

arid and semiarid zones. Factors such as excessive rainfall variability

and large change in temperature contribute to the vulnerability of

individual farms, as well as on whole rural communities.

In addition, farmers are expected to manage the more insidious

effects of long term climate change that may now be occurring at an

unprecedented rate. These existing pressures will demand the

development and implementation of appropriate methods to address

issues of vulnerability to weather and climate. These will be need to

assist farmers to further develop their adaptive capacity with improved

planning and better management decisions. More effective approaches

to delivery of climate and weather information to farmers through

ANALYSIS 5(18), April - June, 2019 Climate

Change ISSN

2394–8558 EISSN

2394–8566

1&2Climatologist, G.E.A.G. Gorakhpur, India, Project Coordinator (Agriculture) G.E.A.G. Gorakhpur, India Corresponding author: Climatologist, G.E.A.G. Gorakhpur, India, Project Coordinator (Agriculture) G.E.A.G. Gorakhpur, India Email: [email protected], [email protected]


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Map1 Intervention Areas in U.P. and Bihar

participatory, cross disciplinary approach is being carried out through

enhancing awareness of information user groups. For effective planning

and management of agricultural practices such as selection of cultivar,

sowing, need-based application of fertilizer, pesticides, insecticides,

efficient irrigation and harvest, weather forecasts in all temporal ranges

are desirable. Weather forecast in short and medium ranges greatly

contribute towards making short-term adjustments in daily agricultural

operations which minimize losses resulting from adverse weather

conditions and improve yield and quantity and quality of agricultural

productions [Agro Meteorological Services of India Met Department].

Farmer Field School/ Farmers Club

Village Resource Center


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Broad Spectrum of Weather Advisory

Growing weather and climate uncertainties pose a major threat to India’s

food security. The combination of long term changes and greater

frequency of extreme weather events are likely to have an adverse effect

on food production in the coming decades. In this regard agro

meteorological services, an innovative step meant to contribute to

weather information-based crop/livestock management strategies and

operations dedicated to enhancing crop production by providing real

time crop and location specific agro-meteorological services with a

village level outreach. So a mechanism was developed to integrate

weather forecast, climatic and agro-meteorological information to

prepare agro advisory for enhancing farm productivity in the

intervention areas (Map 1). Weather information should reach the last

mile to create impact, enough information. There is a great need to

convert the weather information into actionable information for farmers.

Linking the weather information with the available technologies and

best farming practices is required. Customized, location and crop

specific actionable information is the requirement of the small farmers.

The agro met advisory available has a very limited access to farmers,

and very generic in nature, not so specific. Considering challenges of

small farmers, the broad spectrum of agro met advisory is to make it

more easily accessible its advantages are as follows.

1. Sowing/ transplanting of kharif crops based on onset of monsoon.

2. Fertilizer application based on wind conditions.

3. Delay in fertilizer application based on intensity of rain

4. Irrigation at critical stage of the crop.

5. Quantum and timing of irrigation using meteorological threshold.

6. Advisories for timely harvest of crops

7. Location specific block level weather advisories

8. Prepared in local language (Hindi) and send by text messages

9. Suggest measures to minimise the loss

10. Optimise input in irrigation, fertiliser or pesticides.

11. Early warning function

12. Alerting the implications of various weather events like extreme

temperatures, heavy rains, floods, and strong winds.

Objective

To inform and guide the farmers in advance to undertake various

farming activities based on the expected weather in the intervention

areas to reduce losses and lowering input costs in agriculture.

METHODS

To meet the mentioned objectives, GEAG has established two

Automatic Weather Station and 12 rain gauges with conventional

forecasting system and WRF weather model for assimilation and

forecasting System. This mainly consists of three components i.e. (i)

Data Processing, (ii) Quality Control, (iii) Objective Analysis. The final

local weather forecast for the surface weather parameters is obtained by

using information from weather model and the prevailing synoptic

situation around the location of interest. On the basis of weather forecast

crop advisory obtained from Agriculture University and suggested by in

house agriculture expert for five days is also included in the services.

Value addition to crop advisory is added by this organization. We

promote low external input agriculture based on ecological principle.

Process Mechanism

Step.1: Collection of weather data from the available sources and this

weather data/information and their departure from normal value at

different temporal and spatial scale is useful information for preparation

of weather advisories.

Step.2: In view of GEAG generating the meteorological products at

block level on five days’ basis, for the parameters temperature

(maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and

diurnal temperature variation), maximum and minimum relative

humidity, cloud and wind direction/speed, rainfall with the help of

mathematical model (WRF) and conventional forecasting system. On

the basis of weather forecast crop advisory obtained from Agriculture

University and suggested by in house agriculture expert for five days is

also included in the services. Value addition to crop advisory is added

by this organization.

Step.3: These advisories are location specific (block level) and

advisories prepared in local language (Hindi) containing description of

prevailing weather and suggestions for taking appropriate measures to

minimize the loss and also, optimize input in the form of irrigation,

fertilizer or pesticides. The advisories also served as an early warning

function, alerting producers to the implications of various weather

events such as extreme temperatures, heavy rains, floods, and strong

winds. These advisories are disseminated through text messages to

farmers, field staff and motivator on their mobiles. Field staff further

explores this information on a display board which is placed at village

resource centre and farmers field school so that whole village will be

able to get this advisory.

Feedback & Awareness of Weather Services

In order to improve the quality of the weather and agro advisory

services, regular direct interactions are being made by the Project

Officers/Climatologist of this organization with the farmers. They have

been regularly participating in Farmers Field School and farmer’s

gatherings etc., to interact with the farmers personally and collect the

feedback from farmers. Using this information farmer plan their

agricultural activity and benefit from expenses on irrigation, pesticides,

harvesting, sowing etc.

GEAG also creates awareness about usefulness of weather/climate

information; agro met advisory services among the farming community.

It is a participatory perception where farmers are involved at data

collection, recording, dissemination and feedback process (Figures 1-6).

Periodic feedback on worthiness of forecast and usefulness

Feedback is obtained weekly, monthly & annually.

Documentation on whether farmers have adjusted day-to-day

farming ops in response to the advice

Annual review meetings held at different locations

In each village, near about 250-300 farmers are getting this information

through display board placed at village resource center (VRC) and 10-15

% farmers use this in their agricultural practices (Table 1).

Assessment of the weather advisory services

Analysis of the agro meteorological services work was carried out in the

intervention areas. It included structured interviews and group

discussions with farmers and staff from fields. as well as direct

consultations with communities involved focus group discussions and

visits to community-managed interventions as planned using

participatory vulnerability and capacity assessment. A focus on agro-met

services was prioritised although this was more explicit in the

Gorakhpur district. Four communities were interviewed in each block

including women farmers ranging from peri-urban to rural. On the basis

of four year experiences the results are as follows.


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Table 1 Farmer’s information through display board placed at village resource center (VRC)

District No. of Blocks No. of Village Male Farmers Female Farmers

Gorakhpur 4 60 3800 1700

Maharajganj 1 15 1000 550

Kushinagar 1 15 750 450

Santkabirnagar 1 15 750 360

Mahoba 1 15 950 350

West Champaran 2 30 980 560

Total 10 150 8230 3970

Fig.1. Temperature data recording by model farmer

Fig.2 Rainfall data recording by model farmer

Fig.3.Information dissemination through display

board at village resource center

Fig.4. Information dissemination at farmer field

school

Fig.5. Onsite advisory message received on farmer phone

Fig.6. Onsite advisory message received by women farmer


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Climate perceptions and spontaneous adaptation

There was a high degree of continuity in the perceptions of changes in

climate over the past 5 to 10 years from all villages. Summer

temperature and particularly heat waves are perceived to have increased.

While total amounts of rainfall are either not thought to have changed or

declined slightly, the rainfall pattern was cited as most significant

change, with the monsoon starting 15 – 30 days later and rainfall less

regular, more intense and with longer dry spells in between. Some

respondents feel that all seasons had shifted forward and the duration of

the winter season had declined. Others added that while summer

temperatures were higher, winter temperatures had been lower in recent

years. The main spontaneous adaptation measures have been to delay

nursery development and transplanting for rice, using earlier maturing

varieties for both wheat and rice in order to cope with a shrinking winter

season and a later monsoon onset respectively. Two main features

should be highlighted – firstly the high degree of agreement between the

perceptions of farmers and the scientific evidence of climate change for

Northern India generally and secondly the pressure that this exerts on

agricultural livelihoods. As climate changes increasingly affect

production and the cost of inputs rise, farmers are caught in a vice of

incremental stress on their livelihoods that can progressively reduce

their ability to develop resilience. The ecological alternative to

conventional chemical agriculture that GEAG promotes addresses both

sides of this equation by reducing inputs use and therefore cost and

increasing resilience, productivity and profitability through sustainable,

ecological farming methods.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

In general, very little other forecast information was used by farmers

receiving the 5-day forecast, either before the project started or

subsequently. Most referred to the one-day forecast through either

television or All India Radio but this only gave basic rainfall and

temperature data. One group knew about a 2-day forecast in a local

newspaper but indicated that this was not used for agricultural decisions.

Likewise, farmer field schools had included some general discussion

about rainfall and temperature prospects for the next 2 years but not

beyond this time frame.

Accuracy of the forecasts was considered good with a range of 85-

90%, with no transmission reliability problems that seriously undermine

access and use. Most of the groups said that, importance of weather

information is 70-75% for their agricultural practices. Operations where

farmers used this information are sowing, scheduling of irrigation,

harvesting, application of fertilizers and bio pesticides. A sizeable

number of groups said that, scheduling of irrigation is about 80%. One

group explained that they were hesitant for the first 6 months but their

initial hesitancy was overcome with increased awareness and knowledge

of how to apply the information. The multiple channels of information

and the ability to interact with the forecast providers were particularly

valued. Groups explained how they received demand for the forecast

forwarding the SMS to a variety of family members and friends in

neighbouring villages is increasingly common and the notice boards

have also generated significant interest both within the village and from

those passing through. In terms of specific decisions that farmers assess

as improved through using the 5-day forecast, these tend to be related to

timing of operations or improved targeting of inputs, including:

1. Adjusting sowing times to cope with later/more variable monsoon

onset dates, in particular when to establish rice seedling nurseries

and transplant seedlings so that planting can be synchronised with

the reliable onset of rain as well as direct planting of e.g. wheat,

potatoes.

2. Irrigation management – to avoid either unnecessary irrigation (and

therefore irrigation costs) prior to rainfall or damaging a crop with

excess moisture if irrigation is followed by heavy rain.

3. Timing of pest control measures, using humidity and wind speed

and direction information to decide bio-pesticide application e.g.

applying chilli spray to mustard with an east wind.

4. Timing of frost damage control using irrigation and smoke to

mitigate forecast frost episodes.

5. Compost/fertiliser application timed to maximise effects on crop

growth and yield e.g. avoiding application prior to heavy rainfall to

mitigate fertility loss through soil erosion.

6. Vegetable nursery development based on temperature forecasts,

especially for chillies, onions and seasonal leaf vegetables. This

includes timing of operations and management of any potential risks

e.g. heavy rainfall affected the nursery.

7. Timing the harvest so as to increase the likelihood of grain being

stored at optimal moisture content e.g. avoiding cloudy weather that

will result in higher grain moisture and therefore higher post-harvest

losses.

8. Respondents, especially women, also cited a number of decisions

about household welfare that forecasts had also assisted, including,

storing more wood, livestock feed and household goods (including

food) if there is a forecast for persistent, heavy rain (over 3 or more

days) that will reduce access to local markets and mobility locally

e.g. through water-logging. Focus on childcare to mitigate risks of

colds and other disease. Adjust any travel decisions based on the

forecast. Take pre-emptive maintenance to avoid e.g. a leaking roof

causing problems within the house.

The impact of these improved decisions were described by all

communities with an emphasis on cost savings, as a result of either more

efficient use of inputs or mitigation of damage to crops, as the most

significant reason for use of the forecast.

Twenty-five villages also described drought indicators which were

perceived as very reliable. Bamboo flowering, fruiting and dying

indicated severe drought, as did the winter temperatures – warm in mid-

January, cold nights in mid-May and heavy first rains from mid-April to

mid-May all suggested a drought year. Opinions ranged from viewing

these as very reliable so still used to dying out because (especially

younger) people were embarrassed to be seen as relying on traditional

views of weather and climate.

Communities highlighted the importance of weather services as part

of the participatory approach and action planning process. Initially,

those involved in the participatory vulnerability and capacity analysis

were not aware of the various climate services available but the increase

in risks associated with climate change such as waterlogging, increased

crop pests and diseases, livestock and human health – were the most

important categories (especially waterlogging) cited. Since the action

plans were developed, communities have been integrating climate

services into its management and implementation in order to increase

access e.g. through including registered mobile phone owners on the

community map, identifying households that have mobile phones but are

not yet registered or including communication methods that ensure those

without mobile phones still can receive the information regularly.

Monthly review of the forecast to feed back to the suppliers is also part

of the action planning process. All communities agreed that the 5-day

forecast had been a basis to increase their understanding of climate


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Irrigation Sowing Harvesting Application ofFertilizers

Application of BioPesticides

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FA R M E R S U S E I N % ( A R E A O F O P E R AT I O N S )


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science and expressed interest in considering other climate services,

such as the seasonal forecast, within the same system.

CONCLUSION

One clear feature from intervention areas, is the high demand for

weather services once end users (i.e. community members, small-scale

farmers) have developed confidence in their application through direct

training. This is more explicit in the 5-day forecast developed by GEAG,

which is now informing a range of livelihood decisions that end users

clearly assess as contributing to their resilience through both saving

costs and adding productivity to their agricultural livelihoods. Farmers

are saving 10-25% input cost by applying these advisories into their

agricultural practices. Forecasts are also used for household security

decisions, with women emphasising the importance of this value as well

as the more direction application to agriculture. SMS use has facilitated

rapid spread, with registered users forwarding forecasts on to relatives

and friends so that indirect users now outnumber direct users by 5 to 1.

The current communication methods are the two most popular (SMS

and notice boards) some forecast users also felt there was potential using

radio if it could be locally specific enough and transmitted at the right

time of day (usually evening). Regular review every month through

farmer field schools was considered a valuable way of interacting with

forecast developers, allowing user feedback on the accuracy of the

forecast and the usefulness of the related agricultural information it

contains. With users describing a change in their attitudes from initial

scepticism to considerable enthusiasm for use of weather services, this

interaction is an important and likely crucial aspect of understanding,

gaining confidence with and applying forecasts to decision-making

processes.

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Importance Usefulness Accuracy of WeatherForecast

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Article Keywords

Weather, Framers, Benefits, Climate, Agriculture

Acknowledgements

Author is grateful to the Rockefeller Foundation for the support to carry

out this study. Thanks are also due to our President Dr. Shiraz A Wajih

G.E.A.G. for his regular encouragement and valuable support during the

entire study. Special thanks to Dr. Bijay Singh for critical review.

Article History

Received: 23 December 2018

Accepted: 14 February 2019

Published: April - June 2019

Citation

Kailash Chand Pandey, Ajay Kumar Singh. Weather and agro advisory

services to farmers and its benefits. Climate Change, 2019, 5(18), 116-

123

Publication License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution

4.0 International License.

General Note

Article is recommended to print as color version in recycled paper.

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