analysis of annual forest inventory data in me and pa
DESCRIPTION
Analysis of Annual Forest Inventory Data in ME and PA William H. McWilliams, Carol A. Alerich, Tonya W. Lister, and Randall S. Morin USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis. Show You What We Have Found Out About Penn’s Woods. Examples of New Analyses - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Analysis of Annual Forest Inventory Data in ME and PA
William H. McWilliams, Carol A. Alerich, Tonya W. Lister, and Randall S. MorinUSDA Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis
Show You What We Have Found OutAbout Penn’s Woods
Examples of New AnalysesFor the 5-Year Report
Progress Update - Inventory
Regeneration Study: 2001
Associated Vegetation
Tree Seedlings
Exotics Survey: New in 2003
Progress Update - Reporting
Five-Year Reporting:
Penn State Issues Conference, April 26-27, 2005
Comprehensive Report
Annual Reporting, 2001 and 2002
Annual Reporting, 2003/4
Mega-Trends: Land-Use Change
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1630 1907 1938 1955 1965 1978 1989 2005
Year
Mill
ions
of A
cres
Forest Land Base is Stable
Mega-Trends: Land-Use Change
Nonforest01-2525-5050-100100-250250-500500-1000>1000Urban area
Forest
Population Density
UrbanizationParcelization Fragmentatio
n
Forestland Dynamics
Parcelization
Fragmentation
Fragmentation
Mega-Trends: Structure
Distribution of Forest Land by Stand-size Class
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sapling-seedling Poletimber Sawtimber
Pe
rce
nt o
f Fo
rest
La
nd 1955
2004
23%
49%
28%
11%
49%
59%
Mega-Trends: Structure
Number of Growing-Stock Trees Per Acre
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
1965
19781989
2002
Mega-Trends: Composition
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1955 1965 1978 1989 2004
Pe
rce
nt
of
Cu
bic
-Fo
ot
Vo
lum
eOak
Red Maple
Oak is Decreasing and Red Maple is Increasing
Mega-Trends: Composition
Sawtimber
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
Tho
usan
ds o
f Tre
es
Mega-Trends: Composition
Poletimber
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
Tho
usan
ds o
f Tre
es
Saplings
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
Red Maple
Black birch
Black cherry
American Beech
Sugar maple
Blackgum
Striped maple
White ash
Hawthorn
Eastern Hemlock
Th
ou
san
ds
of
Tre
es
Sawtimber
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
Tho
usan
ds o
f Tre
es
Mega-Trends: Composition
Effects of Urbanization, Parcelization, and Fragmentation Reduce Management Options
Composition and Structure are Changing
Alien Pests are Here and More are on the Way
Current Threats
Invasive Plants are Here and Expanding Their Influence
Ailanthus vs. Oak
Inventory is Increasing at a Slower Rate than in the Past
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
1955 1965 1978 1989 2004
Mill
ion
Bo
ard
Fe
et
+ 15%+ 77%
+ 57%+ 19%
Advance Regeneration is Lacking and OptionsAre Expensive
Management and Policy Implications
Financially Mature, High-Value Stands Predominate PA’s forested landscape
“Timber Availability” is less than FIA Data Imply
Timber Industry Will Need to Adapt to SpeciesLike Red Maple
Recreation Value is Approximately Equal to Timber Value in Many Areas
Methods to Project Current Conditions into the Future Need to be Developed
Better Wildlife Habitat Models Would Help Gauge Prospective Trends
Stand Rehabilitation will be Needed in Disturbed stands with Poor Regeneration
Sustainable Forestry on Private Lands Needs Assessed
Prepare Management Strategies for Late Successional and Old Growth Stands
Strategies for Invasive Plants and Pests Need Further Development
Castanea dentata Map
Regional Study Examples
Frequency of Spruce Budworm DefoliationWhat, Where, and When of the Next Spruce/Fir Forest?
Principal Findings: The Next Generation of Spruce/Fir Forest (Where and When?)
Low
High
Current Distribution of Saplings
3-inch Class
10 Years
2-inch Class
15 Years
1 inch Class
20 Years
4-inch Class
5 Years
Next 20 Years of Ingrowth
Principal Findings: Inventory (Where?)
Balsam Fir Eastern White Pine
Paper Birch Beech Northern Red Oak
Where are the Major Species Concentrated?
Red Spruce
% BA/AC
Forest Health: Balsam Fir
Forest Health: American Beech
Forest Habitat Types
Forest Diversity
Late-Succession Forests
?
The End
What We Can’t Tell You Now
Less Than 50% of Plots Were Remeasured
Old Design New Design
Only Central Portion Remeasured!
Only About 10% of Trees Remeasured the First Time Through
We Will Remeasure More Trees This Season Than We Did in the First Five Years!
Growth, Removals, and Mortality Are Not Statistically Sound, Yet
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1952 1970 1987 2000 2020 2040
Arboreal
Understory
Floor
Soil
1015 grams by eco-component
Tree Carbon Per Hectare by U.S. County
Carbon Stocks and Accumulation
National Reporting Examples
Quercus spp. Map
Distribution of Mixed-Oak Stands in the Eastern US
Mixed-Oak Stands by Stand-Size Class
Nonforest01-2525-5050-100100-250250-500500-1000>1000Urban area
Forest
Population DensityPennyslvania
0 10 20 30 40
> 1000
501 - 1000
251 - 500
101 - 250
51 - 100
26 - 50
<= 25
Po
pu
lati
on
Den
sity
Percent of Forestland
Urbanization
PA
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
1-99 100-199 200-499 500-999 1000+
Parcel Size
Th
ou
san
d A
cres
1978
1993
Parcelization – Private Forestland(Source National Woodland Owner Survey, 1994)
NE PA
0
500
1000
1-99 100-199 200-499 500-999 1000+
Parcel Size
Thou
sand
A
cres
1978
1993
Fragmentation
Forestland Area by Patch Size - PA
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 - 1010 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 500
500 - 1000
1000 - 5000
5000+
Patch Size (Acres)
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f A
cre
s
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Dee
r P
op
ula
tio
n E
stim
ate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Tu
rkey
sig
hti
ng
s/10
00km
02000
40006000
800010000
1200014000
1600018000
20000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Bla
ck B
ear
Po
pu
lati
on
Est
imat
e
Habitat Concerns?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Elk
Po
pu
lati
on
Est
imat
e
Migrants
Habitat Concerns?
Forest Interior
Specific
Threatened
Generalists
Late-Successional and Old Growth Forests
Quantify Extent and Character
Spatial Distribution
Age / Size(After Whitman and Hagen, 2004)
Mixed Oak
200
300
100
0
For Major Forest Community Types (follow Fike and Jenkins)