analysis of multi-year global evapotranspiration datasets and ipcc … · 2011-12-13 ·...
TRANSCRIPT
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Analysis of multi-year global evapotranspiration datasets
and IPCC AR4 model simulations:Results from the
LandFlux-EVAL project
Brigitte Mueller
S. I. Seneviratne, C. Jimenez, T. Corti, W. Dorigo, M. Hirschi, G. Balsamo, P. Ciais, P. Dirmeyer, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, C. D. Kummerow, F. Maignan, M. F. McCabe, R. Reichle, M. Reichstein, M. Rodell, W. B.
Rossow, J. Sheffield, A. J. Teuling, K. Wang, and E. F. Wood
HESSS2 International ConferenceLandFlux-EVAL session
ETH Zürich
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
ET in the climate system (1)
● Land-atmosphere feedbacks (link to precipitation, temperature)
● Impact of climate change on hydrological cycle
● Representation of global water cycle in IPCC models?
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
● Few datasets
– In-situ measurements scarce
– Satellite retrievals and models: Uncertainty? Validation?
– Reanalyses not considered reliable (not well constrained)
● ET has received little attention so far
ET in the climate system (2)
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Dataset groups
● 'Diagnostic' datasets
● Land-Surface Models (LSMs)
● Reanalyses
● Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations assessed in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), 20th century conditions
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
'Diagnostic' Datasets
Name Provider/Reference Information
UCB Fisher et al. (2008) Priestley-Taylor, ISLSCP-II (SRB, CRU, AVHRR)
MAUNI Wang and Liang (2008) Empirical, calibrated with Ameriflux, ISLSCP-II (SRB, CRU, AVHRR)
PRUNI Sheffield et al. (2010) Penman-Montheith ET, ISCCP, AVHRR
MPI-BGC Jung et al. (2009) Empirical, global upscaling of FLUXNET data, CRU, GPCC, AVHRR
AWB ETH Mueller et al. (2010) Atmospheric water balance (GPCP, ERA-Interim)
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Land-Surface ModelsGS-COLA(-SSiB) GS-CLMTOPGS-NOAH GS-HY-SSIBGS-NSIPP GS-LADGS-VISA GS-MOSAICGS-ISBA GS-MOSES2GS-BUCKET GS-SIBUCGS-SWAP
GSWP(COLA)
13 GSWP LSM simulations, forced with ISLSCP-II and/or reanalysis data
GL-NOAHGL-CLMGL-MOSAIC
GLDAS LSM simulations
EI-ORCHCRU-ORCH
ORCHIDEE(LSCE)
ERA-Interim forcingCRU-NCEP forcing
VIC VIC(U.Arizona)
model/observation forcing
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
ReanalysesERA-INT ECMWF (ERA-Interim)
MERRA NASA/GSFC
M-LAND MERRA-LAND from NASA/GSFC
NCEP NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD
JRA-25 JMA
ECHAM, IPSL, NCAR, MRI, MIROCMED, GFDL, INMCM, HADGEM, HADCM, GISS, CCCMA
IPCC AR4 simulations 20c3m
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Annual means in ET 89-95Means Std. deviations Rel. std. deviations
Diagn.
LSMs
Rean.
IPCC
0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40mm/d mm/d
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Difference IPCC-Reference dataMeans Std. deviations Rel. std. deviations
0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 30 20 10 0 10 20 300.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4mm/d mm/d %
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Global analyses
● Similar spatial patterns
● LSMs and IPCC models lower ET in Amazon region
● Low standard deviations in LSMs in many regions
● IPCC models high standard deviation in India and Australia
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Analysis on river basin scale
Mississippi
Amazon
Central EUbasins
Volga
Nile
Changjiang
MurrayDarling
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Annual means river basins: 89-95
Amazon Mississippi Central European basins
Volga Changjiang Nile MurrayDarling
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Δ E
T [m
m/d
]
UCB MAUNI PRUNI MPI AWB GS-COLAS GS-NOAH GS-NSIPP GS-VISA GS-ISBA GS-BUCKGS-CLMTOP GS-HYSSIB GS-LAD GS-MOSAIC GS-MOSES2 GS-SIBUC GS-SWAP GL-NOAH GL-CLM GL-MOSAIC EI-ORCHCRU-ORCH VIC ERA-INT MERRA M-LAND NCEP JRA25 ECHAM5 INMCM IPSL HADGEMNCAR HADCM MRI GISS MIROC-MED CCCMA GFDL P-R
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
River basin analyses
● Spread between single datasets comparable in all 4 dataset groups
● Large spread in Murray-Darling and Nile basins in IPCC models
● Diagnostic mean close to P-R
● Below average ET in LSMs and IPCC models in Amazon region
● Overestimation of ET in reanalyses and IPCC models in Changjiang basin
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Cluster analysis:Annual means
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Similarities between datasets
● IPCC models and LSMs build clusters
● Diagnostic datasets and reanalyses more distinct from each other
● Strong influence of forcing data
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Spatial uncertainties:Triple collocation method
● Collocation of 3 datasets
● Each dataset corresponds to observations of a linear systematic deviation from the reality plus a random error, i.e.
● For random errors + for different error magnitudes
● Application of method?
P=
P
Pr
P
M=
M
Mr
M
G=
G
Gr
G
Error in each dataset
1. Solve for α,β2. Calculate errors3. Iterate (1) until errors do not change with further iteration
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Triple collocation: Diagn. ET
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Summary
● Large scale patterns consistent
● Range large in some regions, i.e. tropics, rainforest
● Range similar in all dataset groups
but mostly smallest in LSMs
● Importance of forcing data
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Open questions
● Inter-dependence of datasets?
● Approach to evaluate products - standard?
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Thank you!
www.iac.ethz.ch/url/research/LandFlux-EVAL
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Supplementary
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Triple collocation: DS-groupsDiagnostic datasets
LSMs/Reanalyses
IPCC simulations
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Annual means in ET 89-95Means Std. deviations Rel. std. deviations
Diagn.
LSMs
Rean.
IPCC
0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40
0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 30 20 10 0 10 20 300.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
IPCC Reference
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Seasonal means: Dec-Jan-FebMeans Std. deviations Rel. std. deviations
Diagn.
LSMs
Rean.
IPCC
0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40
0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 30 20 10 0 10 20 300.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
IPCC Reference
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Seasonal means: Mar-Apr-MayMeans Std. deviations Rel. std. deviations
Diagn.
LSMs
Rean.
IPCC
0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40
0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 30 20 10 0 10 20 300.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
IPCC Reference
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Seasonal means: Jun-Jul-AugMeans Std. deviations Rel. std. deviations
Diagn.
LSMs
Rean.
IPCC
0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40
0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 30 20 10 0 10 20 300.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
IPCC Reference
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Seasonal means: Sep-Oct-NovMeans Std. deviations Rel. std. deviations
Diagn.
LSMs
Rean.
IPCC
0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40
0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 30 20 10 0 10 20 300.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
IPCC Reference
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Seasonal means: DJF
UCB MAUNI PRUNI MPI AWB GS-COLAS GS-NOAH GS-NSIPP GS-VISA GS-ISBA GS-BUCKGS-CLMTOP GS-HYSSIB GS-LAD GS-MOSAIC GS-MOSES2 GS-SIBUC GS-SWAP GL-NOAH GL-CLM GL-MOSAIC ORCH-IORCH-CRU VIC ERA-INT MERRA M-LAND NCEP JRA25 ECHAM5 INMCM IPSL HADGEMNCAR HADCM MRI GISS MIROC-MED CCCMA GFDL P-R
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Δ E
T [m
m/d
]
Amazon Mississippi Central European basins
Volga Changjiang Nile MurrayDarling
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Seasonal means: MAM
UCB MAUNI PRUNI MPI AWB GS-COLAS GS-NOAH GS-NSIPP GS-VISA GS-ISBA GS-BUCKGS-CLMTOP GS-HYSSIB GS-LAD GS-MOSAIC GS-MOSES2 GS-SIBUC GS-SWAP GL-NOAH GL-CLM GL-MOSAIC ORCH-IORCH-CRU VIC ERA-INT MERRA M-LAND NCEP JRA25 ECHAM5 INMCM IPSL HADGEMNCAR HADCM MRI GISS MIROC-MED CCCMA GFDL P-R
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Δ E
T [m
m/d
]
Amazon Mississippi Central European basins
Volga Changjiang Nile MurrayDarling
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Seasonal means: JJA
UCB MAUNI PRUNI MPI AWB GS-COLAS GS-NOAH GS-NSIPP GS-VISA GS-ISBA GS-BUCKGS-CLMTOP GS-HYSSIB GS-LAD GS-MOSAIC GS-MOSES2 GS-SIBUC GS-SWAP GL-NOAH GL-CLM GL-MOSAIC ORCH-IORCH-CRU VIC ERA-INT MERRA M-LAND NCEP JRA25 ECHAM5 INMCM IPSL HADGEMNCAR HADCM MRI GISS MIROC-MED CCCMA GFDL P-R
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Δ E
T [m
m/d
]
Amazon Mississippi Central European basins
Volga Changjiang Nile MurrayDarling
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Seasonal mean: SON
UCB MAUNI PRUNI MPI AWB GS-COLAS GS-NOAH GS-NSIPP GS-VISA GS-ISBA GS-BUCKGS-CLMTOP GS-HYSSIB GS-LAD GS-MOSAIC GS-MOSES2 GS-SIBUC GS-SWAP GL-NOAH GL-CLM GL-MOSAIC ORCH-IORCH-CRU VIC ERA-INT MERRA M-LAND NCEP JRA25 ECHAM5 INMCM IPSL HADGEMNCAR HADCM MRI GISS MIROC-MED CCCMA GFDL P-R
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
Diagn LSMs
Rean IPCC
-2.75
-2.25
-1.75
-1.25
-0.75
-0.25
0.25
0.75
1.25
1.75
Δ E
T [m
m/d
]
Amazon Mississippi Central European basins
Volga Changjiang Nile MurrayDarling
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Cluster analysis: Dec-Jan-Feb
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Cluster analysis: Mar-Apr-May
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Cluster analysis: Jun-Jul-Aug
Introduction
Preliminary results
Outlook
Supplement.figures
IACETH LandFlux-EVAL, 24 June 2010 B. Mueller
Cluster analysis: Sep-Oct-Nov