analysis of ozone modeling for may – july 2006 in pnw using airpact3 (cmaq) and camx
DESCRIPTION
Analysis of Ozone Modeling for May – July 2006 in PNW using AIRPACT3 (CMAQ) and CAMx. Robert Kotchenruther, Ph.D. EPA Region 10 Nov. 5 2006. Current AIRPACT3 12km domain. CMAQ O 3 Prediction 7/22/2006 00Z. Background: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Analysis of Ozone Modeling for May – July 2006 in PNW using AIRPACT3 (CMAQ) and CAMx.
Robert Kotchenruther, Ph.D.EPA Region 10Nov. 5 2006
CMAQ O3 Prediction7/22/2006 00Z
Current AIRPACT3 12km domain
Background:
The basis of the Model Runs was WSU’s AIRPACT3 air quality forecast system.* Daily 24 hour prediction of air quality (gases and aerosols).* 95 x 95 grid at 12km resolution.* CMAQ v4.4 model with SPARC99 chemical mechanism.* MM5 12km meteorological forecasts from UW.* Uses the SMOKE emissions model with emissions files developed by WSU.
For this retrospective run, AIRPACT3 was used as above except:* Archived MM5 forecasts were concatenated into a continuous meteorological dataset using hours 12-23 from each UW run.* The CAMx (v4.31) model was also run by converting CMAQ IC, BC, and emissions files into CAMx input format.* CMAQ and CAMx were run for the period May 8 – July 31, 2006.* First 4 days of run were removed for model spin-up.
Some CMAQ and CAMx differences:* CAMx uses SAPRC99, but does not include aerosol chemistry.* Differences in formulation of chemistry numerical solvers* Differences in treatment of vertical and horizontal advection and diffusion (minor)* Differences in treatment of plume rise from elevated point sources (minor)* CMAQ and CAMx user different MM5/met pre-processors.
Background(2):
The motivation for this retrospective run of AIRPACT3 was that Washington & Oregon experienced exceedances of the 8 hour ozone standard at 5 sites this summer. Provided and opportunity to explore how well AIRPACT3 is performing for O3
Max 8hr average O3, WA & OR sites, 2006 (ppbv)
Main purpose of presentation• A snapshot of current AIRPACT3 ozone performance.• A lead in to a discussion of where we should place efforts to improve
- our understanding of model’s current performance- where best to place efforts at improving model performance
Date Enumclaw(WA)
Pack Forest(WA)
Issaquah(WA)
Carus(OR)
Turner(OR)
16-May 87
26-Jun 100 88
21-Jul 108 93 87 108 87
22-Jul 112 109 88
WA & OR O3 monitoring sites available for analysis
This analysis will focus on the five sites with 8hr O3 exceedances: (WA Sites)ISSLKSAMENUMUDMTPAC_FOR
(OR Sites)CARUSTURNER
Ju
l 14
Ju
l 15
Ju
l 16
Ju
l 17
Ju
l 18
Ju
l 19
Ju
l 20
Ju
l 21
Ju
l 22
Ju
l 23
Ju
l 24
Ju
l 25
Ju
l 26
Ju
l 27
Ju
l 28
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
CMAQ
CAMx Obs Data
Ozo
ne
, 1
h
ou
r a
ve
ra
ge
(p
pb
v)
Ju
l 14
Ju
l 15
Ju
l 16
Ju
l 17
Ju
l 18
Ju
l 19
Ju
l 20
Ju
l 21
Ju
l 22
Ju
l 23
Ju
l 24
Ju
l 25
Ju
l 26
Ju
l 27
Ju
l 28
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 Obs Data CAMx CMAQ
Ozo
ne
, d
aily
1
hr m
ax
(p
pb
v)
The plots on the following slides show daily max (and min) ozone (and temperature). The maximum 1hr average was taken for both models and monitor, unpaired in time. This example is from Enumclaw, Mud Mountain Road.
Daily Max O3, 2006
Hourly Average O3, 2006
ENUMUDMT (WA) – Enumclaw, Mud Mountain Road * = exceedance dayPlots show daily max and min ozone, 1hr average, model and monitor unpaired in time.
Daily Max O3, 2006
Daily Min O3, 2006
**
* *M
ay 5
May 12
May 19
May 26
Ju
n 2
Ju
n 9
Ju
n 16
Ju
n 23
Ju
n 30
Ju
l 7
Ju
l 14
Ju
l 21
Ju
l 28
Au
g 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150 Obs Data CAMx CMAQ
Ozo
ne
, d
aily
1
hr m
ax
(p
pb
v)
May 5
May 12
May 19
May 26
Ju
n 2
Ju
n 9
Ju
n 16
Ju
n 23
Ju
n 30
Ju
l 7
Ju
l 14
Ju
l 21
Ju
l 28
Au
g 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 Obs Data CAMx CMAQ
Ozo
ne
, d
aily
1
hr m
in
(p
pb
v)
ENUMUDMT (WA) – Enumclaw, Mud Mountain Road * = exceedance dayPlots show daily max ozone and temp, 1hr average, model and monitor unpaired in time.
Daily Max O3, 2006
**
* *M
ay 5
May 12
May 19
May 26
Ju
n 2
Ju
n 9
Ju
n 16
Ju
n 23
Ju
n 30
Ju
l 7
Ju
l 14
Ju
l 21
Ju
l 28
Au
g 4
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Obs Data MCIP (10m Temp)
Te
mp
era
tu
re
, d
aily
1
hr m
ax
(D
eg
C
)
Daily Max Temp., 2006
May 5
May 12
May 19
May 26
Ju
n 2
Ju
n 9
Ju
n 16
Ju
n 23
Ju
n 30
Ju
l 7
Ju
l 14
Ju
l 21
Ju
l 28
Au
g 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150 Obs Data CAMx CMAQ
Ozo
ne
, d
aily
1
hr m
ax
(p
pb
v)
CARUS (OR) – Carus, Spangler Rd. * = exceedance dayPlots show daily max ozone and temp, 1hr average, model and monitor unpaired in time.
May 5
May 12
May 19
May 26
Ju
n 2
Ju
n 9
Ju
n 16
Ju
n 23
Ju
n 30
Ju
l 7
Ju
l 14
Ju
l 21
Ju
l 28
Au
g 420
40
60
80
100
120
140 Obs Data CAMx CMAQ
Ozo
ne
, d
aily
1
hr m
ax
(p
pb
v)
*M
ay 5
May 12
May 19
May 26
Ju
n 2
Ju
n 9
Ju
n 16
Ju
n 23
Ju
n 30
Ju
l 7
Ju
l 14
Ju
l 21
Ju
l 28
Au
g 410
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 Obs Data MCIP (10m Temp)
Te
mp
era
tu
re
, d
aily
1
hr m
ax
(D
eg
C
)
Daily Max O3, 2006
Daily Max Temp., 2006
May 5
May 12
May 19
May 26
Ju
n 2
Ju
n 9
Ju
n 16
Ju
n 23
Ju
n 30
Ju
l 7
Ju
l 14
Ju
l 21
Ju
l 28
Au
g 420
40
60
80
100
120 Obs Data CAMx CMAQ
Ozo
ne
, d
aily
1
hr m
ax
(p
pb
v)
TURNER (OR) – Turner Cascade Jr. High * = exceedance dayPlots show daily max ozone and temp, 1hr average, model and monitor unpaired in time.
*
May 5
May 12
May 19
May 26
Ju
n 2
Ju
n 9
Ju
n 16
Ju
n 23
Ju
n 30
Ju
l 7
Ju
l 14
Ju
l 21
Ju
l 28
Au
g 410
15
20
25
30
35
40 Obs Data MCIP
Te
mp
era
tu
re
, d
aily
1
hr m
ax
(D
eg
C
)
Daily Max O3, 2006
Daily Max Temp., 2006
PAC_FOR (WA) – Pack Forest * = exceedance dayPlots show daily max and min ozone, 1hr average, model and monitor unpaired in time.
Daily Max O3, 2006*
**
ISSLKSAM (WA) – Issaquah Lake Sammamish
Daily Max O3, 2006* *
May 5
May 12
May 19
May 26
Ju
n 2
Ju
n 9
Ju
n 16
Ju
n 23
Ju
n 30
Ju
l 7
Ju
l 14
Ju
l 21
Ju
l 28
Au
g 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130 Obs Data CAMx CMAQ
Ozo
ne
, d
aily
1
hr m
ax
(p
pb
v)
May 5
May 12
May 19
May 26
Ju
n 2
Ju
n 9
Ju
n 16
Ju
n 23
Ju
n 30
Ju
l 7
Ju
l 14
Ju
l 21
Ju
l 28
Au
g 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120 Obs Data CAMx CMAQ
Ozo
ne
, d
aily
1
hr m
ax
(p
pb
v)
Scatter plot comparing daily 1hr ozone maximum observations and model predictions, unpaired in time. Combined data from 5 sites reporting O3 exceedances in OR & WA.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 1500.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Rat
io O
3(mo
del
)/O
3(ob
s),
dai
ly 1
hr
max
(p
pb
v)
Ozone obs, daily 1hr max (ppbv)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 1500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150 CAMx CMAQ
Ozo
ne
mo
del
ed,
dai
ly 1
hr
max
(p
pb
v)
Ozone obs, daily 1hr max (ppbv)
Scatter plot comparing daily 1hr ozone minimum observations and model predictions, unpaired in time. Combined data from 5 sites reporting O3 exceedances in OR & WA.
0 10 20 30 40 50 600
5
10
15
20
25
Rat
io O
3(mo
del
)/O
3(ob
s),
dai
ly 1
hr
min
(p
pb
v)
Ozone obs, daily 1hr max (ppbv)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 CAMx CMAQ
Ozo
ne
mo
del
ed,
dai
ly 1
hr
max
(p
pb
v)
Ozone obs, daily 1hr max (ppbv)
Discussion
• Ideas for where to look to understand model over prediction of ozone when ambient ozone is below ~ 80 ppb and under prediction when over ~ 80 ppb?
- Biases in pbl or other met variables?- Emissions inventories?- Nesting to a finer resolution?- ????
• Discuss above in two contexts:- Given current available measurements.- If we begin making measurements not currently available.
i.e., mobile lab to be discussed later today