analysis of passenger traffic in polish airports in in … · • slide 7 seasonality of traffic...

ANALYSIS OF PASSENGER TRAFFIC IN POLISH AIRPORTS ANALYSIS OF PASSENGER TRAFFIC IN POLISH AIRPORTS

IN IN THE THE FIRST HALF FIRST HALF OF OF THE YEAR THE YEAR 20142014

1

Review: Statistics and Analysis Division

Warsaw, 24th September 2014

• Slide 3- 4 Summary

• Slide 5 Total number of passengers

• Slide 6 Total number of flight operations

• Slide 7 Seasonality of traffic

• Slide 8 Airports results- comparison with ACI

• Slide 9 Airports- individual results

• Slide 10 Domestic and international traffic - comparison with ACI• Slide 10 Domestic and international traffic - comparison with ACI

• Slide 11 Scheduled traffic

• Slide 12 Charter traffic

• Slide 13 RPKMs, ASKMs, LF YTD - comparison with IATA data

• Slide 14 RPKMs, ASKMs, LF quarterly

• Slide 15 Air carriers- business models

• Slide 16 Low-cost carriers- comparison with European data

• Slide 17 Network carriers- comparison with AEA carriers

2

• The results of Polish airports in the H1* should be considered as good. The positive trend in travel volumes and seat factor

has followed the developments in the first three months of the year. Although Ryanair, the hitherto growth leader, has

downsized its network, this has been offset by the increases of Wizzair, Germanwings and, subsequently, Norwegian and

EasyJet. The gap left after the withdrawal of LOT Polish Airlines’ international operations from regional airports has been filled

by Lufthansa group, although as shown by the example of German market, it took place at the cost of the number of

operations available, especially to Munich. You can also notice the positive effects of the restructuring of the LOT Polish

Airlines network.

• Passenger traffic at Polish airports in the Q2* by approx. 6.7%, year-on-year. In the entire H1 this value was moderately lower

and equalled to 6.6%. Air travel market rose in spite of no change of the number of operations in the Q2 and moderate

decrease in the H1 respectively. Notably, as in the Q1*, also in the Q2 and consequently in the H1, airlines increased average

aircraft capacity. As a result, the capacity rose by 2% in the Q2 and the H1. In the Q2, seat factor reached the level of 79,5%,

which is 3% increase, year-on-year. For the entire H1 this value was 75,9%, which was also 3% higher compared to a year ago.

SummarySummary

which is 3% increase, year-on-year. For the entire H1 this value was 75,9%, which was also 3% higher compared to a year ago.

• Polish airports recorded higher increases in comparison to European airports associated in ACI Europe. Warsaw Chopin

airport itself achieved also higher growth in comparison to its benchmark airports. However, regional airports with the

exemption of Warsaw/Modlin airport, saw a lower traffic increase in comparison to airports welcoming less than 5 million

passengers per year. Expansion in domestic and international air traffic volumes also outperformed the results achieved by

airports associated in ACI Europe.

• Likewise in the Q1, in the H1, Polish market reported higher growth of RPKMs in comparison to passenger volumes, mainly

due to a lengthening of the flight stage by approx. 24 km. The expansion in RPKMs was also higher compared to European

and Worldwide results presented by IATA. The growth of ASKMs was however noticeably lower in comparison to IATA

benchmarks. As a result, the load factor recorded a result of +3,1%, close to the growth of the seat factor. The growth of LF

was also higher compared to European and Worldwide results.

3H1- the half of the year, Q2-the second quarter, Q1- the first quarter

• If we exclude from analysis Ryanair’s operations moved to Warsaw/Modlin airport, Polish market in terms of quantitative

growth was led by Warsaw Chopin airport in the Q1 and the entire H1. In the Q2 among the regional airports the highest

growth was observed at the airport in Gdańsk. It was also another consecutive quarter of robust growth at airport in Kraków.

As a result this airport reported the highest traffic expansion in the entire H1. Both in the Q2 and the H1 the largest drops in

traffic were recorded in Łódź.

• The airports’ results were driven by multiple factors. Firstly, it was another quarter of notable increase of charter market,

which saw a robust result of +19%. In the H1 the growth reached the level of 16%. Unlike in the Q1 the market expansion

was mainly driven by the destinations in the Mediterranean region. In case of scheduled traffic it is worth noting that there

was a strong decline in passenger volumes to United Kingdom.

• Domestic traffic reported a robust growth in the H1. It was mainly driven by an impressive growth by 22% in the Q2. It is

worth noting that the results of the Q2 were influenced by two dominant factors. Firstly, mainly due to Ryanair’s activity,

there was a significant increase in domestic flights bypassing Warsaw Chopin airport. Secondly, one can see the positive

SummarySummary

there was a significant increase in domestic flights bypassing Warsaw Chopin airport. Secondly, one can see the positive

results of network restructuring by LOT Polish Airlines, resulting in the higher seat factors on domestic flights. As a

consequence the seat factor on the whole domestic market grew by 0,5%, despite the modest ratio recorded on the routes

bypassing Warsaw Chopin airport. What is more, the growth of seat factor was possible besides the robust growth of

average aircraft capacity.

• In the H1 there was a soft change in the structure of the market shares between airlines representing different business

models. Network carriers increased their share at the expense of low-cost airlines due to the difference of growth ratio

which amounted to 5.1% and 9.1% respectively. In the Q2 the stoppage of the expansion of LCCs was even more evident in

comparison to the first three months of the year. While the LCCs, the main drivers of growth in recent two years, reported a

soft growth of 3,6%, network carriers increased traffic by 11%. The results of low cost carriers were mainly affected by the

Ryanair’s decision to downsize the capacity. Importantly, it was offset by the accelerating growth of Wizzair and

subsequently Germanwings, Norwegian and EasyJet. The network carriers, which reported the highest increases in

passenger traffic are as follows: Eurolot, Lufthansa, LOT Polish Airlines, SAS and Austrian Airlines. It is worth noting that

expansion of LOT Polish Airlines and Eurolot was mainly driven by the charter operations.

4

• In the H1 Polish airports served over 12 million passengers which constitutes an 6.6% increase compared to a year ago and

almost equal result compared to 2012. In the Q2 passenger traffic reported a growth of 6,7% which was slightly better

compared to the Q1.

• In the Q1 airline operations decreased slightly by 1%, as a consequence of decrease and no change of this figure in the Q1

and Q2 respectively.

• In the Q1 and the Q2, and consequently in the entire H1 the capacity rose by 2%. In both quarters air carriers increased the

average aircraft capacity, but the scope of this increase was different among quarters. The average capacity grew by 3% and

4% in the Q2 and the H1 respectively.

• In the Q2, the trend in seat factor, calculated as the ratio between the number of passengers and available seats, has

followed developments in the Q1 of the year. Seat factor amounted to 79.5%, 3 percentage points more compared to the

year ago. In the entire H1 seat factor reached the level of 75,9%, also +3%, year-to-year.

TOTAL NUMBER OF AIR PASSENGERSTOTAL NUMBER OF AIR PASSENGERS

Number of passengers (millions) YTD*

7,143

6,696

6,939

6

7

7

7

7

2014 2013 2012

12,066

11,324 11,324

11

11

11

11

12

12

12

12

2014 2013 2012

Number of passengers (millions) - YOY*

Source: CAA of Poland5

* Please note the difference in scale on the vertical axis between charts

• As a result of the above changes, the average number of passengers per operation increased in the Q1 and the Q2 and as a

consequence in the entire H1. In the Q2 and the H1 this value amounted to 103 and 96 respectively (+6 and +7 passengers

more compared to year ago).

• In the Q1 and the Q2 and as a consequence in the H1, the network carriers reported a greater increase in the average

number of passengers per operation. While low-cost carriers carried on average 3 and 4 passengers more in the Q2 and the

H1 respectively, in case of network carriers the growth amounted to 7. It was driven by the fact that in the Q2 as in the Q1

legacy airlines were operating aircrafts on average with 7 seats more, year-to-year. At the same time the number of seats on

board of LCC’s aircrafts felt by 5 and 4 in the Q2 and the H1 respectively.

TOTAL NUMBER OF FLIGHT OPERATIONSTOTAL NUMBER OF FLIGHT OPERATIONS

Number of flight operations (thousands) - YTD*Number of flight operations (thousands) YOY*

69,392 69,201

77,367

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

2014 2013 2012

125,503126,738

135,193

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

2014 2013 2012



• By contrast to the first quarter, the growth of the traffic was unevenly distributed in the subsequent months of the Q2. The

increase amounted to 2,1%, 6,6% i 10,4% respectively.

• It was mainly driven by the performance of charter market. The dynamics of the charter traffic was 0,7%, 12,7% i 28%

respectively. It is worth noting that in June Polish airports recorded growth of 110 thousand passengers compared to year

ago. The impressive growth in June, but also in May, was driven also by Wizzair as well as Lufthansa and Germanwings group.

Traffic dynamics*

SEASONAL CHANGESSEASONAL CHANGES

Traffic dynamics*Air passengers monthly

2014 vs 2013

2014 vs 2012

Source: CCA of Poland7


6,3%

6,3%

Cumulatively

I - quarter

14,0%

14,0%

Cumulatively

I - quarter

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Th

ou

san

ds

2014 2013 2012

AIRPORTS RESULTS AIRPORTS RESULTS –– COMPARISON WITH ACI EUROPECOMPARISON WITH ACI EUROPE

• Regional airports in Poland reached the traffic dynamics distinctly higher than the benchmark of ACI airports, despite the airports

associated in this organisation recorded the acceleration of expansion in the H1. However the results of the regional airports are

still to be seen through the lens of the Ryanair’s decision to move operations from Warsaw Chopin to Warsaw/Modlin airport. If

one excluded Warsaw/Modlin airport from the analysis, this growth rate would be 3,3 %, which is about 3 percentage points

lower than that for comparable ACI airports. Only in the Q2 this value was 2,8%.

• In the H1 domestic traffic in regional airports recorded higher growth (+11%) in comparison to international traffic (+2.5%). Over

the same period network carriers reported robust growth of +12.6%, while in case of LCCs traffic volume remained almost

unchanged (+0,4%).

• By contrast to the Q1, in the Q2 in regional airports (excluding Warsaw/Modlin) the expansion of domestic traffic (+19%) was

stronger compared to international traffic (+1,2%). This record breaking growth on domestic market was mainly driven by

Ryanair’s new routes, although it also worth noting that the traffic increases were also reported by LOT Polish Airlines and Eurolot.

It should also be noted that, as in the Q1, the growth to a greater extent was driven by network carriers which increased the

Dynamics of WAW*The dynamics of the entire market* The dynamics of regional airports*

Źródło: ULC i ACI EUROPE8

It should also be noted that, as in the Q1, the growth to a greater extent was driven by network carriers which increased the

traffic by a staggering 17.4%. It was another quarter when the decrease of LOT‘s traffic was evident, but at the same time it was

offset by the increase brought primarily by Lufthansa and secondly by Eurolot, SAS and Austrian Airlines.

• In the Q2, for the first time in more than two years in regional airports LCC’s traffic recorded decline (-2.1%), mainly due to the

Ryanair’s traffic drop. This was partially compensated by Wizzair’s growth. The result of regional airports was also significantly

driven by charter traffic, which reported growth of +24%.


6,39%

4,60%

0,00%

2,00%

4,00%

6,00%

8,00%

Poland ACI airports

16,33%

5,00%

0,00%

5,00%

10,00%

15,00%

20,00%

Poland ACI airports-5,51%

5,57%

-10,00%

-5,00%

0,00%

5,00%

10,00%

Poland ACI airports

AIRPORTS RESULTS AIRPORTS RESULTS -- INDIVIDUALLYINDIVIDUALLY

• In the Q2, the airport in Gdańsk was the leader of the passenger growth among regional airports with the exemption of

Warsaw/Modlin. It recorded the highest LCC’s passenger growth and second best results in terms of charter traffic. It was

also another consecutive quarter of robust growth in airport in Kraków, driven mainly by expansion of EasyJet and

subsequently Norwegian. As in the Q1, the airport in Łódź recorded the biggest drop of passengers which was driven by

significant reduction of Ryanair’s capacity. As far as the entire H1 is concerned airport in Kraków and subsequently in Gdańsk

were the leaders of passenger traffic expansion.

• To the greatest extent the outcome of the Chopin airport was influenced by the transfer of Ryanair’s operations to the

airport in Modlin. If you exclude Ryanair’s traffic the airport recorded the increase in traffic of +11% (+ 475 K passengers)

which was the best result in the country and higher growth in comparison to benchmark ACI airports. In the Q2 the airport

recorded the growth of +12%. If you take into account the outcome of both airports serving Warsaw city, they reported

traffic increase of +12% and +11% in the Q2 and the H1 respectively. To the greatest extent the result of Warsaw Chopin

Change in the passenger market - YOY* Change in the passenger market - YTD*

Source: CAA of Poland

9


-6%

11%

3%1%

6%

-3%0%

23%

-37%

-9% -8%

24%

-10%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-200000

-100000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

Per value Per percentage

-6%

11%

3%1%

6%

-3%0%

23%

-37%

-9% -8%

24%

-10%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-200 000

-100 000

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

WA

W

KR

K

GD

N

KT

W

WR

O

PO

Z

WM

I

RZ

E

LCJ

BZ

G

SZ

Z

LUZ

IEG

Per value Per Perrcentage

traffic increase of +12% and +11% in the Q2 and the H1 respectively. To the greatest extent the result of Warsaw Chopin

airport was driven by reorganization of LOT Polish Airlines’ network and the growth associated with the development of the

Warsaw hub. With the exception of Ryanair’s operations LCC’s reported the staggering growth of +42.5%. Wizzair, the leader

of the passenger growth, increased frequency on part of the directions, but also operated on new routes. The growth was

also driven significantly by Germanwings and Norwegian. In the entire H1 charter traffic recorded also a significant growth of

+16%.

• In the H1 international traffic reported a higher growth (+5.8%) compared to ACI airports. Over the same period operations

recorded the decline of 0.6%. In the Q2 the growths amounted to 5.1% in case of passenger traffic and 0.4% in case of

operations.

• In the H1 domestic traffic reported a robust growth of 13.5% despite the fall in the number of operations by over 2%. It was

possible thanks to the record breaking increase in the average aircraft capacity up to 10 seats and parallel rise of S/F by

around 0.5%. The good outcome of the H1 was mainly driven by an impressive growth by 22.5% in the Q2. Over this time the

capacity increased by 21.5%. While the average aircraft capacity rose by around 15 seats the S/F was up to 0.5%. The

outcome of domestic market was mainly driven by the growth of Ryanair’s and to lesser extent Eurolot’s flights bypassing

Warsaw Chopin airport. Approx. 60% of new domestic passengers were travelling on the new routes. It is evident however

that new routes are being operated with a low S/F. LOT Polish Airlines reported also significant traffic rise. What is important

the LOT’s sharp growth of S/F contributed to the whole market in this regard.

DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL TRAFFICDOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC--

COMPARISON WITH ACICOMPARISON WITH ACI

International traffic* Domestic traffic*

Source: CAA i ACI EUROPE10


6,67%

4,30%

0,00%

2,00%

4,00%

6,00%

8,00%

Poland ACI airports

3,47%

5,80%

0,00%

2,00%

4,00%

6,00%

8,00%

Poland ACI airports

• In the Q2 the scheduled destinations which reported the highest increases in passenger traffic were as follows: the

Netherlands, Norway, Israel and Greece. In case of first three mentioned markets the growth was driven by the low cost

airlines. However in case of Greece the offer of these carriers was complemented by Aegean Airlines. The largest declines

were reported to United Kingdom, Ireland, Hungary and Ukraine.

• In the H1 the scheduled destinations which reported the highest increases in passenger traffic were as follows: Norway and,

subsequently, Italy, the Netherlands and Israel. As in the Q1, the growth was driven by low cost carriers, with the exception of

Italy, where the growth was influenced by both Ryanair and Alitalia. It is also worth noting that the network to Germany

significantly changed its composition. The largest declines were recorded to UK, Ireland, Finland and Hungary. With the

exception of Finland the market drop was driven by the reduction of low cost operations.

SCHEDULED TRAFFICSCHEDULED TRAFFIC

10,850

10,27610,095

10

10

11

11

2014 2013 2012

Number of passengers (millions) YTD* Traffic dynamics - YTD*

Number of passengers (millions) - YOY*6,235

5,936

6,048

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

2014 2013 2012

5,0%

3,1%

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

2014 vs 2013 2014 vs 2012

5,6%

7,5%

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

2014 vs 2013 2014 vs 2012

Traffic dynamics YOY*



• In the H1, the Polish charter market recorded a significant growth in traffic of 16.1%. This was mainly driven by the outcome

of the Q2 when traffic increased by 19.4%, year-on-year. The result of the first three months of the summer season was

influenced by several concurrent factors. Firstly, the market again recorded a significant decline in traffic to Egypt. However,

differently from the Q1, the growth was driven mainly by the destinations in the Mediterranean region. The destinations

which reported the highest increases in passenger traffic are as follow: Greece (+53%) and subsequently Turkey and Tunisia.

The largest increase in charter traffic was recorded by Warsaw Chopin Airport. Among regional airports the largest growth

was reported by Poznań and Gdańsk. The strongest declines were recorded by the airports in Szczecin and Bydgoszcz. Once

again, the market proved to be resistant to the turbulence of the supply side. The exit from the market by Bingo Airways as

well as significant drop in traffic of the Travel Service group was offset compensated primarily by a robust increase of Small

Planet Airlines and subsequently by Enter Air and LOT Polish Airlines.

CHARTER TRAFFICCHARTER TRAFFIC

Number of passengers (million) - YOY*

Number of passengers (millions) YTD*

Traffic dynamics - YOY*

Traffic dynamics - YTD*

0,908

0,761

0,891

1

1

1

1

1

2014 2013 2012

1,217

1,048

1,229

1

1

1

1

1

2014 2013 2012

19,4%

2,0%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

2014 vs 2013 2014 vs 2012

16,1%

-1,0%-5,0%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

2014 vs 2013 2014 vs 2012Source: CAA of Poland12


RPKM, ASKM, LF CUMULATIVELYRPKM, ASKM, LF CUMULATIVELY

-- COMPARISON WITH IATA DATACOMPARISON WITH IATA DATA

• Likewise in the Q1, in the H1, Polish market reported higher growth of RPKs in comparison to passenger volumes, mainly due

to a lengthening of the flight stage by approx. 24 km. The expansion in RPKMs was also almost 2 percentage points higher

compared to European and Worldwide results presented by IATA. The growth of ASKMs was however noticeably lower in

comparison to IATA benchmarks.

16 275

16000

1650020 542

21000 79,2%

79,0%

80,0%

RPKM (mln) - YTD* ASKM - YTD* LF - YTD*

16 275

16000

16500

RPKM - YTD* ASKM – YTD* LF – YTD*

15 086

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

2014 2013

20 542

19 816

19000

19500

20000

20500

2014 2013

76,1%

74,0%

75,0%

76,0%

77,0%

78,0%

79,0%

2014 2013

Source: CAA of Poland i IATA13


4,9%

5,9% 5,8%

4,0%

4,5%

5,0%

5,5%

6,0%

Poland Europe World

9,8%

5,2% 5,6%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

Poland Europe World

3,4%

-0,5%

0,2%

-1,0%

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

Poland Europe World

15 086

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

2014 2013

RPKM, ASKM, LF QUARTERLYRPKM, ASKM, LF QUARTERLY

• What it is important, in the H1, as in the Q2, the dynamics of passenger traffic far exceeded capacity growth. As a result, load

factor increased by more than 3 percentage points, thereby significantly more compared to the world and the Europe, as

presented by IATA.

• In the Q2 the RPKs increased by 6.6% and far exceeded the growth rate of ASKs (+ 2.7%). As a result, LF increased by 3

percentage points, which was similar to the result achieved in the Q1 and the H1. The average flight stage rose by approx. 19

km.

9 760

9 153

8800

9000

9200

9400

9600

9800

10000

2014 2013

11 920

11 604

11400

11500

11600

11700

11800

11900

12000

2014 2013

81,9%

78,9%

77,0%

78,0%

79,0%

80,0%

81,0%

82,0%

83,0%

2014 2013

RPKM (mln) – YOY* LF – YOY*ASKM (mln) – YOY*

Source: CAA of Poland

14


• In the H1 there was a soft change in the structure of the market shares between airlines representing different business

models. Network carriers increased their share at the expense of low-cost airlines due to the difference of growth ratio which

amounted to 5.1% and 9.1% respectively. Among air carriers that recorded the highest growth on the market in the H1 are

representing all airline business models. The largest growth of traffic was recorded by Lufthansa and subsequently by Small

Planet Airlines and Wizzair. All mentioned airlines managed to raise traffic by over 100 K passengers. The largest drop in

traffic was recorded by Ryanair and Travel Service group. In the Q2 the airlines, which reported the highest increase in

passenger traffic are as follows: Wizzair, Eurolot, Lufthansa, Small Planet Airlines and LOT Polish Airlines. The largest drop in

traffic cover this period was recorded by Ryanair.

CARRIRES CARRIRES –– BUSINESS MODELSBUSINESS MODELS

Market share by volume of air traffic- (YTD) Market share by business model (YTD)


45,1% 44,9% 49,4%

49,7% 49,3% 43,6%

5,2% 5,8% 7,0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2013 2012

Charter

LCC

Legacy

25,9%

25,1%17,6%

7,6%2,4%

2,0%

1,6%

17,9%

Ryanair

LOT Polish Airlines + Eurolot SA

Wizz Air

Lufthansa

EasyJet

Norwegian Air Shuttle

SAS

Other

• In the H1 low cost carriers in Poland recorded a lower passenger traffic growth rate compared to the European benchmarks,

but they were more efficient in terms of S/F increase. This result was mostly driven by Ryanair’s moves, mainly in the Q2.

Over this period, LCC carriers increased the traffic by 3.6% raised the LF by over 4 percentage points.

• In the Q2, for the first time since 2010 Ryanair decreased the traffic. Therefore the robust expansion of this carrier, which

managed to raise the traffic between 2010-2014, by over 80% was ceased. The data for the first three months of the summer

season shows a signs of Ryanair’s network restructuring. It increased the traffic only in case of Warsaw city and airport in

Gdańsk. However airport in Gdańsk was the only one that reported the significant raise of capacity. The largest drop of

capacity was reported by Katowice, what may be associated with the proximity of Krakow airport and possible cannibalization

of traffic. Moreover, it is clear that Ryanair decided to perform more deep cuts at airports welcoming less than 1 million

passengers. The cuts were the most evident in case of UK market. Around 50% of cuts affected this destination. What is

more, in the Q2 Wizzair started to accelerate the growth. It was also another subsequent quarter of the dynamic growth of

LOWLOW--COST CARRIERS COST CARRIERS –– COMPARISON COMPARISON

WITH EUROPEAN DATAWITH EUROPEAN DATA

more, in the Q2 Wizzair started to accelerate the growth. It was also another subsequent quarter of the dynamic growth of

Germanwings, Norwegian and EasyJet. It should be noted however that operations of these carriers are still limited to a the

selected airports in Poland.

Comparison of dynamics (YTD)* Comparison of changes in the percentage points of LF (YTD)*

Source: CAA of Poland , Ryanair, EasyJet and Norwegian16


7,29%

5,54%

0,00%

2,00%

4,00%

6,00%

8,00%

Poland Europe

4,31%

0,37%

0,00%

1,00%

2,00%

3,00%

4,00%

5,00%

Poland Europe

• In the H1, network carriers in Poland recorded a higher dynamics in comparison to AEA carriers. This result was primarily

driven by operations in the Q2. Over this period network airlines reported capacity growth of 7%, due to the higher average

aircraft capacity and with almost unchanged number of operations. However, by contrast to the Q1 they were not able to

increase the LF. This value rose by 1.7 percentage points (S / F by 2.7 pp). As a consequence, in the H1 the LF increased by 2.3

percentage points (S / F: 2.5 pp).

• Likewise in the Q1, in the Q2 Lufthansa reported the largest traffic increase and also as in the Q1 it was mainly driven by the

new seats allocated to the routes between regional airports and Germany due to LOT’s withdrawal from this market. As a

consequence, in the Q2, the number of passenger seats offered on the market remained almost unchanged, year-on-year.

However, passengers’ choice shrank since the number of operation fell by nearly 18%. As in the Q1 Lufthansa focused its

operations on feeding hub in Frankfurt. The capacity remained unchanged due to the operations of aircraft with the larger

average capacity. In the Q2, as it was already mentioned, there are clear effects of LOT’s network restructuring around hub in

Warsaw. Among others, it raised the number of routes to Eastern, Central Europe and North America, as well as made

NETWORK CARRIERSNETWORK CARRIERS-- COMPARISON COMPARISON

WITHWITH AEA CARRIERSAEA CARRIERS

Warsaw. Among others, it raised the number of routes to Eastern, Central Europe and North America, as well as made

changes in the network to Western Europe. Despite the decline in the number of scheduled operations it managed to

increase the traffic thanks to the higher S/F. It is worth noting that the traffic growth was also recorded by Eurolot, SAS and

Austrian Airlines. The biggest traffic volume drop was reported by Emirates.

Comparison of dynamics (YTD) Comparison of changes in the percentage points of LF YTD

Source: CAA of Poland and AEA17

6,90%

0,78%

0,00%

2,00%

4,00%

6,00%

8,00%

Poland Europe

3,31%

0,68%

0,00%

1,00%

2,00%

3,00%

4,00%

Poland Europe

• Number of passengers (millions) - quarter - chart shows the total number of passengers in the quarter,

including two previous years (YOY)

• Number of passengers (millions) YTD - chart shows the total number of passengers in past quarters including

the corresponding periods of the previous 2 years

Slide 6

• Number of flight operations (thousands) - quarter - chart shows the total number of operations in the given

quarter, including two previous years (YOY)

• Number of flight operations (thousands) - chart shows the total number of operations in the past quarters,

including the corresponding periods of the previous 2 years (YTD)

Slide 7

• Air passengers monthly - chart compares the monthly distribution of air passenger traffic in given years at

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• Air passengers monthly - chart compares the monthly distribution of air passenger traffic in given years at

Polish airports

• Traffic dynamics - chart shows the dynamics for current quarter and YTD compared to with the corresponding

period year ago, and compared to the results two years ago

Slide 8

• The dynamics of the entire market - chart compares the total dynamics of air traffic in all polish airports with

European airports associated in ACI

• The dynamics of regional airports - chart compares the total dynamics of traffic at regional airports in Poland

and regional airports associated in ACI (serving less than 5 million passengers)

• Dynamics of WAW - chart compares the dynamics of traffic in Warsaw and European airports associated in ACI

(airports selected as benchmarks for the Warsaw Chopin Airport, Athens, Belgrade, Bratislava, Bucharest,

Helsinki, Lisbon, Podgorica, Prague, Riga, Sarajevo, Skopje, Sofia, Tallinn, Tirana, Toulouse, Vilnius, Zagreb)

Slide 9

• Changes on the passenger market - (YOY) - chart shows the traffic difference in absolute terms and the traffic

dynamics at Polish airports of domestic and international traffic.

• Changes on the passenger market - (YTD) - chart shows the traffic difference in absolute terms and the traffic

dynamics at Polish airports of domestic and international traffic

• International traffic- chart compares the dynamics of international traffic in Poland and the airports

associated in the ACI (YTD)

• Domestic traffic- chart compares the dynamics of domestic traffic in Poland and the airports associated in the

ACI (YTD)

Slide 11

• Number of passengers (millions) - (YOY) - the chart shows the number of passengers on scheduled flights in

the current year and two previous years

• Number of passengers (millions) - (YTD) - the chart shows the number of passengers on scheduled flights in

the current year and two previous years

• Traffic dynamics - (YOY) - chart shows the changes in the scheduled traffic dynamics in comparison to two

previous years

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previous years

• Traffic dynamics - (YTD) - chart shows the changes in the scheduled traffic dynamics in comparison to two

previous years

Slide 12

• Number of passengers (millions) - (YOY) - chart shows the number of passengers in non-scheduled traffic in

comparison to two previous two years

• Number of passengers (millions) - (YTD) - chart shows the number of passengers in non-scheduled traffic in

comparison to two previous two years

• Traffic dynamics - (YOY) - chart shows the changes in the non-scheduled traffic dynamics

• Traffic dynamics - (YTD) - chart shows the changes in the non-scheduled traffic dynamics

Slide 13

• RPKM (mln)- (YTD) - chart shows RPKs in current and previous year

• ASKM (mln)- (YTD) - chart shows the ASKs in current and previous year

• LF - (YTD) chart shows the LF in current and previous year

• RPKM - (YTD) - chart shows a comparison of the RPKs’ dynamics in Poland, Europe and Worldwide on the

basis of Polish CAA and IATA data

• ASKM - (YTD) - chart shows a comparison of the ASKs’ dynamics in Poland, Europe and Worldwide on the basis

of Polish CAA and IATA data

• LF - (YTD) - chart shows a comparison of changes in percentage points of LF in Poland, Europe and Worldwide,

on the basis of Polish CAA and IATA data Slide 14

• RPKM - (YOY) - chart shows the RPKs in current and previous year

• ASKM - (YOY) – chart shows the RPKs in current and previous year

• LF - (YOY) - the chart shows the LF the current and previous year

Slide 15

• Market share by volume of air traffic - (YTD) - chart shows the market share of carriers which served the

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• Market share by volume of air traffic - (YTD) - chart shows the market share of carriers which served the

largest number of passengers in Poland in a given year

• Market share by business model - (YTD) - chart shows the market share, broken down by business models i.e.

network carriers, low-cost and charter in past quarters in given years

Slide 16

• Comparison of dynamics - (YTD) - the chart shows a comparison of the dynamics of LCC carriers in Poland and

Europe, on the basis of Polish CAA data and statistics from Ryanair, EasyJet and Norwegian, which are

responsible for nearly 80% of European LCC’s traffic. CAA decided to use the data of these carriers because

these entities are continuously updating their data on monthly basis

• Comparison of changes in the percentage points of LF - (YTD) - chart shows a comparison of changes in

percentage points of LF of LCC carriers in Poland and in Europe on the basis on the basis of Polish CAA data and

statistics from Ryanair, EasyJet and Norwegia

Slide 17

• Comparison of dynamics - (YTD) - chart shows a comparison of the dynamics of network carriers’ traffic in

Poland and Europe (Europe and Middle East), on the basis of Polish CAA and AEA data

• Comparison of changes in the percentage points of LF - (YTD) - chart shows the change in percentage points

of LF of network carriers in Poland and in Europe on the basis of CAA and AEA data

analysis of passenger traffic in polish airports in in … · • slide 7 seasonality of traffic...

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