15/03/2012

Philippe Pegorier

Analyst day – Russia & CIS

Overview

Agenda

Why be in Russia?

Challenges for Alstom

2

Economic prospects

• Good economic and financial situation − GDP growth at around 4%− 3rd reserves of hard currency in the world− balanced budget− inflation at 6%

BUT decisive role of oil prices

− $90 per barrel: dangerous zone− $60 per barrel: problematic zone

Good business conditions for Alstom

3

Modernisation plan

• Need to modernise its industry as Russia approaches WTO accession

Modernisation plan based on:− Foreign investment− Localisation of production and transfer of technology − Organisation of large international events: Winter Olympic games, Football Worldcup, new Silicon Valley (Skolkovo)− Creation of zones to facilitate trade between chosen members

• Customs Union: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan Russian pressure on Ukraine to join

• New Free Trade Zone between major CIS membersincluding Ukraine

Russia’s modernisation plan is crucial to face upcoming competition from other countries

4

Political prospects

• Parliamentary elections in December 2011

− V. Putin’s United Russia: 50% of the votes compared to 64% in 2007 − Street protests in major Russian cities to demand fair elections

and a change in politics

• Presidential elections of 4 March 2012

V. Putin was re-elected with over 60% of the votes (vs. 70% in 2004)− No major changes in political and economic priorities:

• Country modernisation• Achievement of the infrastructure development

programmeBUT large reshuffle of the government

How will Putin now rule Russia?

Re-election of V. Putin ensuring political stabilitybut need to address the young educated generation’s demands

5

French-Russian relations

Good French-Russian relations although impacted by presidential elections

• France-Russia political relations development:

V. Putin: “Relationships with France are now at the same levelthan with Germany”.

− Alstom part of all French/Russian political bilateral forums (CEFI, Intergovernmental Seminar, State projects as Skolkovo…)

However− Presidential elections in both countries causing turbulences− Adaptation period for both governments, probably till September 2012

6

Agenda

Why be in Russia?

Challenges for Alstom

7

Size of the country

Krasnoyarsk:JV Grid-Rusal manufacturing site

St.Peterburg:Alstom Turbomachine,JV Alstom-AtomenergomashRegional Grid office, Service business

Alstom Ltd, Alstom Stavan, Alstom Uniturbo, TRTrans, Railcomp, Alstom Grid, Automation & Service businesses

Novocherkassk:TRTrans,Railcomp

Yekaterinburg:JV Grid-Rusal,Grid regional office

Irkutsk:Grid regional office, Automation business

Surgut:Grid regional officeService business

HoldingPower ThermalPower

RenewableTransportGrid

MOSCOW

St.Petersburg

Ufa: (in project)JV RusHydro

Rostov on Don:Grid regional office

8

Alstom’s footprint

NevinnomyskAlstom Hydro office

Localisation and partnerships

• Stake in a Russian market player− TransMashHolding with Alstom holding a 25% share (Transport)

• Joint Ventures with Russian partners

• Product localisation and attraction of Alstom’s suppliers to Russia

Product localisation and partnerships: key factors for success

9

THERMAL POWER RENEWABLE POWER TRANSPORT GRID

• Rusal• KER• Soyuz• RTSoft

• TransMashHolding• Promelectronica

• Rushydro• Atomenergomash

FY 09/10 FY 10/11 FY 11/12*

Key figures in Russia & CIS

A step-change in all Sectors since 2010

10

FY 09/10 FY 10/11 FY 11/12*

GridTransportRenewable PowerThermal Power

In € billion

0.1

1.6

1

* First nine months (from April to December 2011)

Orders by destination Headcount** evolution

From 200 employees in 2010 to over 550 today…

Thermal PowerRenewable PowerTransportGrid

** Without partners

Sales by destination

0.1

0.30.4

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