analyst meeting q4 and fy 2011 - listed...
TRANSCRIPT
Analyst MeetingQ4 and FY 2011
Contents2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
2011 Highlights
Performance & Roadmap
Investment
2012 Outlook2012 Outlook
PTT Group Stress Test
1
2011 Highlights
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Economy
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
• European Financial turmoil leading to credit rating downgrade in Italy, Spain, and other 7 European countries
• Exceptionally low Fed rate at 0 – 0.25%; however, improvement of employment rate and CPIExceptionally low Fed rate at 0 0.25%; however, improvement of employment rate and CPI shown
• Lower Chinese demand from tight monetary policy, however, increasingly gloomy global outlook and slower growth forced China to start easing monetary policy in December
• NESDB estimated that devastating flood led to contracting Thai economy by 9.0% in Q4/2011 and FY 2011 growth only at 0.1%
Operations
• Flood caused NG sales volume to decrease by 7.7% QoQ, while only 1% effect in oil business
• Yetagun closed to install compressor platform lead to lower NGV supply
• Gradually increasing NGV retail price structure implemented since January 16, 2012
ESP d ti f t h td i Q3/2011
2
• ESP resumed operation from warranty shutdown in Q3/2011
• Improvement of coal sales volume from 2.5 to 3.1 MTon in Q4/2011
2011 – Year of Record Profit2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Unit : THB Billion
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Record Year
• Increasing sales volume 926
1,2141,508
2,0011,586
1,898
2,428
Revenue~USD 80 bn
from ESP, GSP6, Ethane cracker (PTTPE)
• Stock gain as crude oil price surged
386 400 490 645926 USD 80 bn
~USD 60 bn
surged
Effective BCM
Eff ti B i C ti it
~USD 10 bn
Effective Business Continuity Management lead to minimal impact from flood in Q4/2011
Stress Test
Net Income
62 7
85.595.5 97.8
59 5
84.0
105.3
55% Stress Test
Group-wide Stress Test to prepare for future uncertainties21.6 24.5
37.6
62.751.7
59.5
19% 38% 45% 41% 63% 43%45%50%
37% 58%
57%
55%
62%55%
59%
59%
36% PTT
Affiliates
3
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
19%81%
38% 45% 41% 63% 42%43%
41%64% 50%36%
Strong Contributions from All Businesses
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Unit : THB Billion+25%
Prices Drivers
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
17.8Petrochem
84 0
105.3Net Income
+75%
Prices Drivers
• Crude oil 106 $/BBL (+40%)• Accounting GRM 6.08 $/BBL (+26%)• Spread HDPE 443 $/Ton (‐13%)
9.4
13.410.2
PTTEP
84.0 Refinery+43%
• Spread HDPE 443 $/Ton (‐13%) • Spread PX 647 $/Ton (+93%)
Volume Drivers
28.7
30.6 PTTEP+7% • Ethane cracker 1 MTA (Q4/10)
• HDPE 300 KTA & LDPE 300 KTA (Q1/11)• Bis‐Phenol‐A 150 KTA(Q2/11)
36.147.8
PTT+32%
• PP/PDH 300/310 KTA (Q3/10, Q1/11)• TDAE 50 KTA (Q1/11)• Oil Sands KKD 15,000 BOED (Q1/11)• Vietnam 16 1 32 000 BOED (Q3/11)
-0.4 -4.3 Others
2010 2011
• Vietnam 16‐1 32,000 BOED (Q3/11)• ESP 0.76 MTA (Q3/10)• GSP 6 1.8 MTA (Q1/11)• LNG Terminal capacity 5 MTA (Q3/11)
4
2010 2011
Dividend 10.25 13.00(THB/Share)
2010-2011 AccoladesPTT is widely recognized among business communities both international and local2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
h h
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Asia Talent Management10th Asia Business Leaders Award 2011
7th Top Asia Energy Companies of 201035th Top Global Energy Companies of 2010
128th Fortune Global 500 of 2011- 155th in 2010 - 118th in 2009
171th The Biggest Listed Companies in the World 2011-196th in 2010 -244th in 2009
Dow JonesSustainabilityIndex # 17
Best CEO 2010Best CFO 2010
Asian Corporate Director Recognition Awards 2010 & 2011
Thai BMA Best Bond Awards 2010
The winners of The Asset’s Platinum Awards in 2011Best CFO 2010
Best Managed Company 2010Best Corporate Governance 2010Best Investor Relations 2010Best Corporate Social
Recognition Awards 2010 & 2011• Asia’s Best CEO• Asia’s Best CFO• Best IR Website/Promotion • Best Environmental
Responsibility
2010• Deal of the Year• Most Creative Issue• Best Investor Relations Issuer
Platinum Awards in 2011
Best Corporate Social Responsibility 2010Best Commitment to Strong Dividend Policy 2010
Responsibility • Best Investor Relations• Best Investor Relations
ProfessionalBoard of the year Award 2010/11
SET Awards• Top Corporate Governance Trusted Brand 2011 Best CEO for Energy Sector 2011 Outstanding State Enterprise
Report Award 2010 & 2011• Best Corporate Social
Responsibility Awards 2011
• Thailand’s Top Brand in Platinum Award for Service Station
gy g pAward 2010• Best State Enterprise of the
Year, Best of the Best• Outstanding Leadership• Outstanding Innovation 5
Contents2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
2011 Highlights
Performance & Roadmap
Investment
2012 Outlook2012 Outlook
PTT Group Stress Test
6
Exploration & Production Performance : PTTEP (65.29%)
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Product Prices Net Income (100%)
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
101.7 102.7
73.8
102.2
Liquid (USD/BBL) 1,468
Unit: MMUSD
1,380
6%
5.91 6.64 5.52 6.00
55.4 61.3 44.8
55.5
G (USD/MMBTU)
Weighted Avg.(USD/BOE)
489250
96%
Sales Volume Key Activities
5.91 6.64 5.52 6.00
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
Gas (USD/MMBTU)
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
250
Sales Volume Key Activities
265 262
Unit: KBOED
0.2%
265
5%
QoQ• Sales volume dropped from flood (i.e. Arthit
North, Bongkot, MTJDA B-17, Yadana, Yetagun),
86 78
265 265251Liquid
G
265, g , , , g ),
whilst sales price sharply increased from periodic gas price adjustment
• Net Income increased from FX gain on USD debts against stronger CAD currency
165 187
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
Gas
7
g g y
YoY• Avg. selling price increased by 24%• Success ratio in 2011 was 11:25
Exploration & Production Roadmap : PTTEP
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Target Sales Volume Proved Reserves
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Unit: KBOEDTotal 969 MMBOE
Overseas
284
330345
326 324
AustraliaMiddle East & AfricaNorth America7%
16%
44%56%
265South East Asia
Australia
Policy
DomesticThailand
Reserves Replacement Ratio 1.10 > 1
Reserve Life Index (year) 9 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201620152011 CF 2012 2013 2014 2016
8
BKT South,Montara
Zawtika Algeria
Gas Business Performance : Natural Gas
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
NG Sales Volume Gas BU EBITDA
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
2011
2010 3,802
4,0554,152
4,1484,1454,330
4,249
3,919
Unit: MMSCFD AVG.
4,040
4,161
Unit: MMTHB
62,195
32%
2009
2010
3,280 3,6063,677 3,686
, ,
3,562
47,212
9,88016,83241%
NG Customer Profile Key Activities
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
550237246
Industry (13%)NGV (6%)
3% Unit: MMSCFD
4,0404,249 4,161
3,9198%
QoQ• NG sales volume declined in all customers as a
result of flood except sales volume to GSPs
763 866430 486860
867559
5503
IPP (21%)
SPP (12%)
GSP (21%)
Industry (13%)increased due to the resumption of ESP & GSP 6
• Higher average gas cost from price adjustment
YoY
1,070 1,146
763 866
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
EGAT (27%)
( )
9
YoY• NG sales volume slightly increased due to gas
leakage and flood
Gas Business Performance: GSPs & NGV
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
GSP - Reference Product Prices NGV EBIT Loss
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
PP HDPE
Unit : USD/Ton
1,399 1,3291,364
1,6061,423
1,340
1,585
Unit : MMTHB
3 164
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
Naphtha
333 333 333 333
869805 660
8531,222
Domestic LPG -7,323
-3,259-3,164
10 556
3%
GSP Sales Volume Key Activities
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
-10,55644%
y
Propane (9%)
Unit : KTon
542
5,820
36% QoQ• GSPs sales volume increased mainly due to the
resumption of GSP 6 and ESPPropane (9%)
NGL (11%)
Ethane (31%)
647
1,798
542
1,5001 381
4,289 YoY• GSP volume increased by 36% from COD of ESP
in July 2010, and GSP 6 in Jan 20119%
LPG (49%)
712
2,833167
467154
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
,1,381
10
y ,• NGV price increased by 0.50 Baht/Kg a month
starting from Jan 16, 2012
Gas Business Roadmap
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
6,000
Unit : MMSCFD
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
4,000GSP
IndustryNGV
21%
13%
7%
6%18%
16%7%
0
2,000Power
- EGAT- IPP- SPP
60%
21%
59%
New Supply
PTTEP (Bongkot
PTTLNG PTTEP(M9)Chevron
02011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PipelineCapacity
Supply South)
4th Onshore Offshore
Compressor
Chevron(Plathong)
Capacity(MMSCFD) 4,380
GSP
5,580 6,980 6,980Compressor
6,980
GSP#6
6,980
GSPCapacity
(MTA)6.7 6.7 6.7 6.76.7
GSP#6
6.7
11
Oil Business Performance : PTT
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Contribution Margin* Oil BU - EBITDA
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
11,973
Unit : MMTHB
0 730.77 0 75
Unit : THB/Liter9%
12,12613,224
Oil
0.72 0.73 0.75 11%
3,236 2,874
291 1,251 2,583
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
Non-OilQ3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
* Exclude non–oil business
Sales Volume Key Activities
Unit : MM Liter 5%QoQ• Sales volume returned to normal in Q4 after more
5 590 5 536
20,762 21,807 FO import in Q3 to compensate gas leakage
YoY• Sales volume increased due to the increase in
2%
5,590 5,536
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011 12
domestic demand and fuel oil demand during gas leakage
• PTT stations 1,326 (+6 stations from Q3)• Café Amazon 634 branches (+29 branches)
International Trading Business Performance : PTT
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Contribution Margin Trading BU - EBITDA*
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
2,188 2,209
Unit : MMTHB
0.04 0.04 0.04
Unit :THB/Liter1%
612283
0.03
54%
283
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011* PTT Only
Sales Volume Key ActivitiesUnit : MM Liter
y
QoQ• Lower sales volume from the turnaround of
2%
16 098 13 736
60,256 59,145
15%
Lower sales volume from the turnaround of IRPC
• Contribution margin slightly decreased due to the decrease in condensate margin
16,098 13,736
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011 13
YoY• Lower sales volume, specially crude volume,
due to schedule shutdown of affiliate refineries
Refining Business Performance
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
GRM/GIM Net Income (100%)
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
23,414
32,455
Unit : MMTHB 39%
BCP
IRPC
Unit : USD/BBL
6.875.90
7.379.40
6.08 A/C GRM
A/C GIM
3,935 1,396
65%
IRPCSPRC
TOP
4.66
3.40 3.81
4.53
3.25
3.854.82 Mkt GRM
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011Source : PTT, Refining AssociatesNote: Weighted Avg. GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP, SPRC, BCP, and IRPC)
Weighted Avg. GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries (TOP and IRPC)Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
93% 85% 90% 89% 100%900
1000
Total Intake Key ActivitiesUnit : KBD
AggregatedUtil
QoQ• Market GRM decreased following European debt
0%
50%
400
500
600
700
800 652 686 684704
BCP
SPRC
Util. crisis• For Aromatics, PX spread margin dropped due to the
resumption of PX plants
YoY
IRPC
‐50%
0%
0
100
200
300
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
SPRC
TOP
14
YoY• Market GRM improved from higher demand due to
global economy recovered• Higher stock gain due to crude oil price surged
Refining Business Roadmap
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PTT 49 10% PX & BZ Upgrading HCU Revamp Benzene Power Plant Power Plant
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
PTT 49.10%
Refining Cap. 275 KbpdPX 489 KTAMX 90 KTA
PX & BZ Upgrading • PX 100 KTA• BZ 100 KTAEthanol UBE400 KLiter/day
HCU RevampPhase I & IIPSA & HVU revamp
Benzene Derivatives• LAB 100 KTA
Power Plant 110 MW
Power Plant 110 MW
BZ 177 KTATol 144 KTA
PTT 38.51%
Refining Cap. 215 KbpdA ti 367 KTA
Propylene Booster • Propylene
100 KTA
ABS/SAN Expansion• ABS/SAN
PP Compound and Specialties100 KTA
Propylene 320 KTA
Aromatic 367 KTAOlefin 728 KTA Polyolefin 615 KTA
100 KTA • ABS/SAN 61 KTA
100 KTA
PTT 27 22% Solar Power Plant Tail Gas Treating Solar Power Plant ContinuousPTT 27.22%
Bangchak
Refining Cap. 120 Kbpd
Solar Power Plant Ph I38 MW
Solar Power Plant Ph II
Tail Gas Treating Unit
Solar Power Plant Ph III 48 MW
Continuous Catalytic Reforming Unit(CCR) 12 KBD
Cogeneration P Pl tPh II
32 MW
Ethanol UBE400 KLiter/day
Power Plant 15 MW
Palm Plantation 3,300 Rais
Expansion project15
Petrochemical Business Performance
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Spread Margins Net Income (100%)
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
638 647
Unit : MMTHBUnit : USD/Ton
37,086
PTT Phenol
71%
HMC PolymersOthers
21 731
HDPE-Naphtha PX-Naphtha
7% 13%
13%
93%
462 429511
443
554
335
PTT Phenol
PTTGC
47%21,731
8,3254,449
7% 13%
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011 Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
Sales Volume Key Activities
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011Note : PTTGC- Pro-forma income statement.
89% 88% 90% 86%
Unit : KTon
23%
QoQ• Sales volume and average selling price dropped from
lower demand following China’s tight monetary policyAggregated
Util.
HMC Polymers
1,2641,550 YoY
• Sales volume increased from the commercial operations of
• PTTGC’s Ethane Cracker 1 MTA in Dec 201012%
Q3/11* Q4/11* 2010 2011PTTGC
HMC PolymersPTT Phenol 222 196
16
• PTTGC’s HDPE 300 KTA & LDPE 300 KTA in Q1/11• PTT Phenol’s Bis-Phenol A 150 KTA in Q2/11• HMC Polymers’s PP/PDH 300/310 KTA in Q3/10
and Q1/11, respectively* PTTGC sales volume not available due to the merger of PTTCH & PTTAR during the period
Petrochemical Business Roadmap
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
PTT 48.92%
Refining 280 KTAOlefins 2,888 KTAA ti 2 259 KTA
NatureWorks 50%PLA 70 KTA
Aromatics 2,259 KTAPolymers 1,590 KTASpecialty 826 KTA
Perstorp 51%TDI 125 KTAHDI 45 KTA
PTT 40.00%PTT 40.00%
Phenol 200 KTAAcetone 125 KTABPA 150 KTA
Phenol 250 KTAAcetone 154 KTA
PTT 41.44%
PP 750 KTAPropylene 310 KTA
PTT 48 50%PTT 48.50%
AN 200 KTAMMA 70 KTA
PTT 50 00%PTT 50.00%
PBS 20 KTA
17
Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (45.6%)
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Average SAR Selling Price Net Income (100%)
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Unit : MMUSD 116%
100
Unit : USD/Ton
190
94
100
73
93
3773 8897%
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
Sales Volume Key Activities
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
y
Unit : KTon
10 726
QoQ• Started production at Northern Lease, Sebuku• Higher average selling price from higher quality coal
from Northern Lease0.1%
2 494 3,077
10,726
Jembayan
Sebuku10,712
23%
from Northern Lease
YoY• Sales volume maintained at same level as previous
year, despite a collapse of the Kutai Kartenegara
Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011
2,494 ,
18
gbridge that obstructed the coal transportation
• Increased in average selling price following global coal price surged
Coal Mining Roadmap
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Target Production Volume Resources & Reserves
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Unit : MMTon
14 0 2%
SebukuReserves 146 MMTon
12.0
14.0
Sebuku
2%
98%
8.59.0
10.7 10.7
98%
Jembayan
JembayanJembayan
Resources 1,505 MMTon
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 E 2013 E60%
40%
19
60%
Sebuku
19
PTT Consolidated Performance : 20112011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
78106
4%Others
PTTEP
Dubai (USD/BBL)
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Unit : MMTHB 28%
1,898,6822,428,165
16%
6%4%
PTT - Gas
Revenue
2010 2011
74%
PTT - Oil & Trading
Others
Revenue
170,330210,748
24%
56%30%
8%6%PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT GPTTEP
EBITDA170,330
2010 201125%
30%PTT - Gas
Others
EBITDA
83,992 105,296
25%
45%17%
13%‐4%
PTT
PetChem
Refining
Net IncomeNet Income
2010 201129.58 36.91 29%
PetChem
PTTEP20
co eNet Income
EPS (THB/Share)
PTT Group Performance : 20112011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
% share
Unit : MMTHB 2010 2011 YoY 2010 2011 YoY
PTT Company Only 54,457 73,434 35% 54,457 73,434 35%
Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Less: Dividend Received 18,316 24,275 33% 18,316 24,275 33%
Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates and other adjusting 1,913 n.m. 1,913 n.m.
PTT Net operating Income 36,141 47,246 31% 36,141 47,246 31%
E&P PTTEP 43 774 44 748 2% 65 29% 28 722 30 558 6%E&P - PTTEP 43,774 44,748 2% 65.29% 28,722 30,558 6%
Petro. Business 21,731 37,086 71% 10,158 17,753 75%
- PTTGC* 16,320 30,033 84% 48.92% 7,922 14,465 83%
- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC5 411 7 053 30% 40-48% 2 236 3 288 47%/ PTTME/PTTTANK 5,411 7,053 30% 40-48% 2,236 3,288 47%
Refining 23,405 32,455 39% 9,377 13,445 43%
- TOP 8,956 14,853 66% 49.10% 4,201 7,514 79%
- IRPC 6,100 4,107 -33% 38.51% 2,250 1,443 -36%
- SPRC 5,553 7,885 42% 36.00% 2,116 2,960 40%
- BCP 2,796 5,610 101% 27.22% 810 1,528 89%
Others Business 1,335 -2,114 n.m. -406 -4,276 n.m.
Inter - PTTI group-2 923 -6 922 -137% 100% -2 922 -6 922 -137%Inter (PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE -2,923 -6,922 -137% 100% -2,922 -6,922 -137%
Gas & Utilities
-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 3,008 2,927 -3% 20-100% 1,783 933 -48%
Oil & Oth. - PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE//PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo 1,250 1,881 50% 33-100% 733 1,713 134%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 90,245 112,175 24% 47,851 57,480 20%
21
Add Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates0 570 n.m. 0 570 n.m.
PTT Conso. Net Income 126,386 159,991 27% 83,992 105,296 25%
*PTTGC performance from Pro-Forma Statement
Statement of Financial Position : Solid and Secured2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Unit: MMTHB Increased assets :• GSP#6 Strong Financial Position
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
11.2 12.1
• GSP#6• PTTLNG• WIP of 4th pipeline• Platform compression• 40% KKD Oil Sands
ICR
Strong Financial Position
116,132
366 060Other 1,229,109
1,402,41214%
Treasury policy
0.4 0.4 1.4 1.3
2010 2011228,132
265,025 135,801
392 403
300,666
366,060 Liabilities
OtherCurrentAssets
L/TLiabilities
Cash & S/T Invest
Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0
Net Debt/Equity < 1.0
2010 2011368,515
419,914 371,029
392,403 Others
Non-currentAssets
(incl. due within 1 yr)
PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level
496,661 601,341 557,414 643,949
PP&E
TotalEquity
PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB)
− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A), FITCH (A-)
31 Dec10 31 Dec 11
22
Dividend Policy & Historical PaymentsPTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
EPS DPS % Dividend Payout
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
25% 25%
32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0%43.6% 40.4%
35.0% 35.2%
30.5734.14 34.82
29.26
36.9125% 25%
PTT’s minimum payout ratio
22.4018.33
21.06UNIT : Baht / share
7.71 8.75
13.43
4 006.75
9.25 10.50 11.508.00 8.50 10.25
13.00
2.50 2.85 4.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
23
Contents2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
2011 Highlights
Performance & Roadmap
Investment
2012 Outlook2012 Outlook
PTT Group Stress Test
24
PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries)PTT plans to invest ~Bt 358 bn ($12bn) during 2012-2016
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Unit: MMTHBCAPEX B kd 5 Y
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
R&DJV & Investment in SubsidiariesOil & Trading
CAPEX Breakdown : 5 YearsBy Business Unit
Gas 33%Coal 2%
Power 2% LNG 5%
gGas
85,48491,467
JV & Others 41%
32 383
,81,513
61,148
JV & Investment in Subsidiaries
50%
Oil & Trading 14%R&D 3%
55,49241,279 32,383
26,880 38,384
27,163 31,831 35,812
16,6537,611
23,134
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
25
PTTEP: 2012-2016 CAPEX
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Total Expenditures (2012-2016) = US$ 20 Billion**
CAPEX = US$ 12 Billion
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
5,168
CAPEX = US$ 12 Billion
OPEX = US$ 8 Billion
3 295 3,479
4,129
3,5533,495*1,571
3,295
1,174
1,397
1,473 1,522 1,747
3,5972,732
1,822 1,957 1,8062,321
20142011 2012 2013 2015 2016
* Exclude KKD Oil Sands Acquisition cost of US$ 2.28 Billion** Exclude expenditure for M&A opportunities
26
PTT Group CAPEX 2012 – 2016 ~ THB 900 BN*2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
P&R**R & D
• Biochemical• Specialty
Upstream – E&P41%
Other opportunities
P&R**16%
2%• Thailand 54%• SE Asia 22%• North America 15%• Australasia 5%
• Coal• Palm Oil 41%
GasOil&Trading
opportunities19%
Australasia 5%• ME & Africa 4%• FLNG
• Power
Gas16%
6%
LPG facilities
• Onshore Pipeline• LNG Terminal• NGV Stations
* Excluded M&A of Affiliates, ** PTTGC excludes new initiatives
• NGV Stations• Offshore Spur Lines
27
Contents2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
2011 Highlights
Performance & Roadmap
Investment
2012 Outlook2012 Outlook
PTT Group Stress Test
28
Economic Outlook : 20122011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Positive Negative
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
• Fed planned to keep interest rate exceptional low until late 2014
• Iran’s threat to the Strait of Hormuz will cause supply disruption and crude oil price surged
Global • US economic data indicates upward momentum
surged
• Greece debt may prolong and tend to be more severe possibly leading to contagion among EU community
fl d i l d i
Thailand
• Post-flood construction lead to increasing in domestic consumption and investment
• Concern on repeating great flood
• Argument on ConstitutionThailand• More stability of the
government
Argument on Constitution amendment
29
Market Outlook
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
• Global oil demand in 2012 is
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Global oil demand in 2012 is forecasted to grow 1.0 MMBPD, reaching 90.0 MMBPD, according to IEA’s report in January 2012.
• Dubai crude oil price in 2012 is expected to be aroundUS$ 100 -110 per barrel.
Supply disruption from Iran’s reaction to the sanction
US economic data indicates upward momentum
An increase in oil supply from the exporting countries
The fragile European economic situation
Source: IEA
30
Source: IEA
Market Outlook
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Si GRM i 2012 i ti t d t
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
• Singapore GRM in 2012 is estimated to be at around US$ 6-7 per barrel
– A result of narrowed refining capacity surplus
– Lower global petroleum products demand caused by economic slowdown.
• Olefins price is on a declining trend• Olefins price is on a declining trend
– Restocking after Chinese new year and annual schedule shutdown
O l d l t h i l d tUSD/Ton USD/Ton
– Oversupply and lower petrochemical products demand caused by economic slowdown
• Aromatics price tends to be improved p p
– PX demand remains strong from the delay of new PX supply
– The start up of new PTA plantsp p
– Lower demand caused by economic slowdown
31Source : DB, KBD, Reuters, FACTS, IEA (Jan’11), Thaioil, OIM and PIM
Contents2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
2011 Highlights
Performance & Roadmap
Investment
2012 Outlook2012 Outlook
PTT Group Stress Test
32
PTT Group Financial Stress Test
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
RationaleWe are operating under VUCA* circumstances
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
p g
• European debt crisis• Double dip economy in the U.S• Natural disasters
1 T t th ili d th l f th
Natural disasters
2 Provide transparency and confidence to investors on
1. Test the resilience and manage the solvency of the company
Objectives
2. Provide transparency and confidence to investors on PTT’s health
Scope
* Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity33
7-Step Approach
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
1 3 52 4
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
External scenarios
Industry ecosystem
Company risk model
1 3 5
Transmission to industry
linkages
Transmission to company
model
2 4Build stresstesting engine & capability
linkages model
7 6
Build mitigation
plan
Run model and measure
impact
7 6Iterate for
mitigation plansOperate
▪ Monitor & Modify
Th i th h l di i di t– The scenario through leading indicators – Stress scenarios to reflect the new uncertainties and changes
to levels of macro-economic indicators in existing scenarios– Transmission mechanisms to reflect new linkages to industry
and compan
Maintain
and company
34
Stress Scenarios
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Europe ▪ Orderly defaults of ▪ Euro zone
Extreme stress
StressImpending crisisSigns of weakness
Business as usual
▪ Recapitalization of bank balance sheets in progress
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Europe Orderly defaults of PIIGS
▪ Eurozone intact due to Focus on fiscal transfers as adjustment mechanism
breakdownin progress▪ Manufacturing and service sectors in
contraction zone▪ All countries cost of borrowing
increased▪ Deteriorating financial health of Italy▪ Partial arrangement on Euro zone fiscal mechanism
▪ Trade and FX imbalances: Deterioration of fiscal situation
TodayUS
▪ Debt deleveraging increases pace, reducing capital availability
Partial arrangement on Euro zone fiscal union
▪ Decline in housing prices▪ Inflation falls to lowest
levels since march 2011▪ Retail sales increasing
China
and increasing imbalances
▪ Further downgrade of US
Todayy
▪ Unemployment remains at 8-9%
▪ Consumer spending weakens
▪ Real estate transaction
▪ Retail sales increasing pace
▪ Unemployment improves to 9%
China ▪ Credit crunch from –NPA’s in real estate–Refinancing of past stimulus program
▪ Export decline due to developed world
▪ Social unrest in China due to rural and urban economic divide
Today
volume declined in Oct▪ Trade surplus
increased, but slowdown in exports in October
▪ M1 and M2 growth developed world slowdown
▪ The flood repeats in this year and FDI
Thailand
M1 and M2 growth remained on downward trend
▪ Impact of flood affects GDP growth Thailand
▪ On top of flood, Social and politicalslows down as several
industries move to other ASEAN countries
Today
gin Q1-2 , 2012, no industries relocate
political tensions and rise to civil unrest
35
Mitigation Plan to Ensure Resilience
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Range of impact of stress
Stress caseBase case (from business plan 2012)
Actions to take before the stress scenario materializes
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
Business as usual
Monitor scenario through lead indicators; incorporate into investment approval decisionsAA
Performance decline
No regret operational
Operational mitigation:
Launch opex and capex excellence to achieve top quartile
Build cash buffer e g max debt capacity
b1
b2
B
decline pmitigation Build cash buffer e.g. max debt capacity
Create a pre-emptive and contingency operational plan – Crisis plan for capacity optimization
b2
b3
Financial Health issue
– Optimal hedging strategy
Strategic mitigation: C
B C
Crisis
g g
Prepare for divestments of non strategic assets
Review and prioritize capex
c1
c2Crisis Review the trade off of early major additional debt or
equity issuancec3
36
"ปตท. ตองแสวงหาพลังงานใหพอเพียง
และลงทนอีกมหาศาลกับพลังงานใหมๆ เพื่ออนาคตของคนไทยทกคน"แล ลงทุนอกมหาศาลกบพลงงานใหมๆ เพออนาคตของคนไทยทุกคน
การลงทุน สังคมสิ่งแวดลอมเพื่ออนาคต
Thank youThank youPTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department
Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected]://www.pttplc.com, http://www.twitter.com/PTTIRp // p p , p // /
The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such
Disclaimer
information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.
Oil Balance Thailand: Jan - Dec 2011 Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply
I t (80%) D ti
Supply Production Sales
Imported Refined Petroleum Products 54 KBDImport (80%)
Crude/ Condensate Refined
Domestic848 KBD
Condensate794 KBD Products
919 KBD*Total Refining Capacity in Thailand:
1,099 KBD
Indigenous (20%)
787 KBD (**)Crude/ Condensate 175 KBD PTT’s Associated Refineries : 905 KBD Refined
Export207 KBD (TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)
Other Refineries : 194 KBD(ESSO, RPC)
Products189 KBD
Source: PTIT
Crude Export 32 KBD221 KBD
Sou ceRemark : (*)Refined product from refineries= 822 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 97 KBD
(**) Not included InventoryKBD = Thousand Barrels per day
39
Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Dec 2011Main driver of the Thai economy
Supply Production Sales
Indigenous (78%)3,253 MMSCFD
Petrochemical
Ethane/ Propane/LPG/NGL
Total 4,167 MMSCFD
Feedstock (14%)
IndustryH h ld
2,469 MMSCFD 867 MMSCFD (21%)Chevron28%Others
40%
HouseholdTransportation
(7%)
LPG/NGL
Methane
6 GSPsTotal Capacity 2,665 MMSCFD
PTTEP 32%
Power (59%)Industry (14%)
Pipeline 784 MMSCFD
Methane 1,602 MMSCFDImport (22%)
922 MMSCFD
LNG10%
Myanmar90%
y ( )NGV (6%)
922 MMSCFD
90%
Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3
40
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Our Major Businesses & Activities
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
E&P PTTEP 65.29% Exploration and Production
stre
am
Business Areas ActivitiesCompany PTT’s holding (%)
Gas
Ups
edia
te PTT PLC• Gas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline
Gas
Oil M k tiPTT PLC
Inte
rme • S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas
• GSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock
Oil Marketing
Int’l Trading
eam
• Oil Marketing 100% Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing
• Int’l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and petrochemical products
Dow
nstr
e
Petrochemical & Refining
PTTGC 48.92% Petrochemical FlagshipTOP 49.10% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical IRPC 38.51% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
& Refining SPRC 36.00% Stand alone Complex RefineryBCP 27.22% Complex Refinery & Retail Stations
sN
ew
Busi
nes s
International PTT Inter 100% Overseas investment arm of PTT : Coal, New energy and related businesses
41
Subsidiaries ConsolidateS b idi i C lid t Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate
Petrochemicals & Refining Business GroupE&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group
Data as of 31 December 2011
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00%Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00%PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00%PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC* 48.95%
Associates Equity
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29%PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00%PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00%Combined Heat and Power producing Co.,Ltd CHPP 100.00%
Joint Ventures ProportionateT Th i M l i (Th il d) C Ltd TTM (T) 50 00%
Petrochemical Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00%PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL 100.00%PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00%
Associates EquityPTT Global Chemical Plc. PTTGC 48.92%PTT Phenol Co Ltd PPCL 40 00%Associates Equity
Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00%Vietnam LPG Co., Ltd. VLPG 45.00%Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd. THAPPLINE 33.19%PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00%
Others CostPetroAsia (Huizhou) Co Ltd PA(Huizhou) 25 00%
Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00%Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00%District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00%
Associates EquityThai Oil Power Co., Ltd. TP 26.00%Independent Power (Thailand) Co., Ltd. IPT 20.00%PTT Utilit Co Ltd PTTUT 40 00%
PTT Phenol Co., Ltd. PPCL 40.00%PTT Maintenance and Engineering Co., Ltd.PTTME 40.00%
Joint Ventures ProportionateHMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44%PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50%PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PMBC 50.00%
PetroAsia (Huizhou) Co., Ltd. PA(Huizhou) 25.00%PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00%PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00%Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67%Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 2.76%
Others Fair ValueBangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc BAFS 7 06%
PTT Utility Co., Ltd. PTTUT 40.00%B.Grimm BIP Power Co., Ltd. B.Grimm BIP 23.00%Nava Nakorn Electricity Generation Co.,Ltd NNEG 30.00%Bangpa-in Cogeneration, Ltd BIC 25.00%
Others CostRatchaburi Power Co., Ltd. RPCL 15.00%
Refining Associates EquityThai Oil Plc. TOP 49.10%IRPC Plc. IRPC 38.51%Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00%Bangchak Petroleum Plc. BCP 27.22%PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTES 40.00%
Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%
International Trading Business Group
OthersOthers Fair ValueSubsidiaries Consolidate
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%
Associates Equity
42
Others Fair ValueDhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT International Co., Ltd. PTTI 100.00%Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00%Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00%
Remark : * Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.
Associates EquityPTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTICT 20.00%
PTT’s Strategic Importance to the Thai Economy
PTT has the largest market cap on the SET
PTTEP 6.6%
PTTGC 3.6%
PTT
SET Market Cap = Baht 9.3 trillion
PTT 10.9%
3.6%
TOP 1.7%
IRPC1.0%
Others 75.8%
PTT Group 24.2%
100
BCP & Others 0.4%
139
Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT
Data as of 20 February 2012
Fortune Global 500 Ranking
118
155
128
100
Need new initiatives
59.9 59.9
Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT
Rev.of 100th company in Fortune Global 500 (Billion USD)
g
64.9 65.0 68.1
155
Vayupak Fund
46.2Fund 15% Public
34%
Ministry of
Finance
2008 2009 2010 2020
Revenue (Billion USD)
43Data as of 9 September 2011
Remark: * DJSI = Dow Jones Sustainability Index
51%
PTT Aspiration
To perform listedTo perform listed company role in high returns
HPO(Technologically Advanced Green NOC)
Sustainable Growth Strategy
EconomicTo perform SOE role in public service
To perform energy company role in caring society & environment
CG CSR
StrategySocial Environmental
44
PTT Group Strategic DirectionInvestment priorities by geography and value chain
Internationalization
Non- AsiaEuropeNon- AsiaAfrica Non- AsiaAmericasNon- AsiaMiddle East
Australia, N. Asia and S. AsiaASEAN
Gas
UpstreamUpstream
UpstreamMidstream
Create P&R flagship and
Expand production to 900 kbd
Build LNG business & expand mid-/ downstream gas value chain
Support group inv.
UpstreamP&R
Oil
& G
Retail
T di
Create P&R flagship and internationalize chemical business
Expand oil station related business and spin off lubricants
Consolidate petroleum commodities and create value through international transactions
Top oil and gas player
UpstreamCoal
Adj
acen
t in
dust
ry
Trading
rsif
icat
ion
Grow coal mining to large scale
UpstreamPower Build Thailand Gas, follow int. gas value chain e pansion oppo t nistic coal
Consolidate petroleum commodities and create value through international transactions
A i E
ner
gy/
ials
Div
e
Alt. energy Build Thai clean power, monitor opport. in ASEAN
chain expansion, opportunistic coal
Plantations Develop palm oil, sugar and cassava Energy
conglomerate
sG
reen
m
ater
i
Infrastructure
Build Green business (ASEAN biohub) Bio-business
pp
Strengthen integrated hub Business
Non-oil RetailExplore opportunities in non-fuel retailO
ther
s teg ated ub(e.g. Gr. Marine) Business
conglomerate
Priority 1 Priority 3Priority 2 based on market attractiveness and potential for PTT Group to be distinctive 45
Statements of Cash Flows for Year 2011 & 2010 (PTT Only)2010 20112010 2011
Investing2010
-29,1332011
-15,270
CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset) -18,925 -24,842
Operating2010
65,7012011
72,632
Net Income 54,457 73,434
Changes in assets & liabilities 18,636 4,263Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -8,335 -32,910
Dividend/Interest Received 22,123 30,588
Others -23,998 11,894
Income Tax -14,153 -9,655
Non-Cash Adjustment 6,625 4,087
Interest-net 136 503
Free Cash flow
Financing -18,024 -67,380
Repayment Loans -26,250 -32,786Free Cash flow
36,568 57,362 Interest paid -11,932 -12,628
Dividend paid -33,447 -31,722
Received from share issue 3,185 1,698
Adjust effect of FX
-1 47
Received from loans/Bonds 50,420 8,058
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents Cash In/(Out)
1 47
46
Equivalents
61,311 51,341
Equivalents
42,768 61,311
Cash In/(Out)
18,543 -9,971
46
Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows for Year 2011 & 2010
Investing2010
-123,1262011-160,454
CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset)
-105,916 -112,525
2 672 77 033
Operating2010155,902
2011177,550
Net Income 83,992 105,296
Changes in assets & liabilities 20,629 -289Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -2,672 -77,033
Dividend/Interest Received 10,623 15,644
Others -25,161 13,460
Changes in assets & liabilities
Income Tax -43,707 -42,074
Non-Cash Adjustment 94,890 113,386
Interest - net 99 1,231
Free Cash flow
Financing 4,901 -45,423
Repayment Loans 51 452 36 284Free Cash flow
32,776 17,096Repayment Loans -51,452 -36,284
Interest paid -14,718 -18,536
Dividend paid -31,755 -41,103
Received from share issue 3,626 1,983, ,
Received from loans/Bonds 99,200 48,517
Adjust effect of FX
Ending Cash & Cash E i l t
Beginning Cash and Cash E i l t C h I /(O t)
-5,909 8,658
47
Equivalents
135,801 116,132
Equivalents
104,033 135,801
Cash In/(Out)
31,768 -19,669
47
Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage RiskManaged debt according to financial risk and policy
Debt Portfolio
ConsolidatedPTT OnlyUnit : MMTHB ConsolidatedPTT OnlyU t
: Cost of debts ~ 4.34 %: % fixed-rate ~ 82 %: Avg. debt life ~ 6.1 years
: Cost of debts ~ 5.04 %: % fixed-rate ~ 90 %: Avg. debt life ~ 7.5 years
343,138 370,262 391,696
g y
84,147114,442
229,606
USD THB,
266,185257,443 (31%)(25%)(41%)
243,153
63,979 68,30872,337(25%) (26%)(30%)
(41%)
193,454 197,877170,816
258,991 255,860
162,090 (75%) (74%)
(69%)(75%)
(70%) (59%)
31 Dec 09 31 Dec 10 31 Dec 11 31 Dec 09 31 Dec 10 31 Dec 11
Note : Data as of 31 Dec 2011 (THB/USD = 31.8319 THB/JPY = 0.4124 ) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax. 48
PTT Consolidated Performance : Q4/11
Dubai (USD/BBL)
Unit : MMTHB
107 107
4%
OthersPTTEP
648,365595,366
Unit : MMTHB8%
73%
16%
7%PTT - Gas
Revenue
Q3/11 Q4/11
Revenue73% PTT - Oil & Trading
8%PTT - Oil & Trading
Others
52,866 50,9754%
64%19%
9%
8%
PTT - Gas PTTEPEBITDA
EBITDAQ3/11 Q4/11
Others
Net Income
21,59916,645
23%63%
15%6%
‐29%
PetChem
PTTEPRefiningNet
IncomeNet Income
EPS (THB/Share)Q3/11 Q4/117.57 5.83
46%
PTT
49
PTT Group Performance : Q4/11
% share
Unit : MMTHB Q3/11 Q4/11 QoQ 3Q/11 Q4/11 QoQ
PTT Company Only 24 894 9 024 -64% 24 894 9 024 -64%
Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT
PTT Company Only 24,894 9,024 -64% 24,894 9,024 -64%
Less: Dividend Received 13,182 493 -96% 13,182 493 -96%
Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates and other adjusting 5 919 n.m. 5 919 n.m.
PTT Net operating Income 11 707 7 612 -35% 11 707 7 612 -35%PTT Net operating Income 11,707 7,612 -35% 11,707 7,612 -35%
E&P - PTTEP 7,450 15,150 103% 65.29% 5,176 10,433 102%
Petro Business 8,325 4,449 -47% 3,957 2,417 -39%
- PTTGC* 6,095 3,998 -34% 48.92% 3,006 2,083 -31%
- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/ PTTME/PTTTANK 2,230 451 -80% 40-48% 951 334 -65%
Refining Business 3,936 1,395 -65% 1,456 1,052 -28%
- TOP 2,518 1,862 -26% 49.10% 1,220 1,064 -13%
IRPC 177 2 195 38 51% 275 587 113%- IRPC -177 -2,195 n.m. 38.51% -275 -587 113%
- SPRC 991 1,167 18% 36.00% 339 446 32%
- BCP 604 561 -7% 27.22% 172 129 -25%
Others Buiness -106 -4,484 4130% -697 -4,869 n.m.
( G G)Inter - PTTI group(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE -445 -5,861 n.m. 100% -445 -5,861 n.m.
Gas & Utilities
-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 853 169 -80% 20-100% 269 -125 -146%
Oil & Oth. - PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE//PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo -514 1,208 n.m. 33-100% -521 1,117 n.m.
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 19,605 16,510 -16% 9,892 9,033 -9%
PTT Conso. Net Income 31,312 24,122 -23% 21,599 16,645 -23%
50*PTTGC performance from Pro-Forma Statement
Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long TermNatural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry
Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 2011-2030): Total ~ 1%: Power ~ 1%: GSP ~ 1%
6,000mmscfd
: GSP ~ 1%: Industry ~ 3%: NGV ~ 2%
NGV 7%
5,422
4,000
5,000
Industry
13%
17%
NGV
6%
3,000
GSP
21%1,970
13%18%
1 000
2,0008%
15%
0
1,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Power77% 60% 58%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Source : PTT
51
Thailand’s Projected Energy Demand
160,000
180,000KTOE
6%
163,812145,604 2%Nuclear
120,000
140,000
Hydro/Import
17%
6%
15%
Renewable
126,588
106,263
87,651 3% 15%
6%
14%4%13%
1%
60,000
80,000
100,000
14%13%
Natural Gas
Coal/Lignite
33%
2%
,
38%
14%
13%3%
35%
15%
38%
14%
20,000
40,000
,
38%
33%
Oil 27%32%
38%
29%31%
0
Source : EPPO/ PDP 2010/ PTT team analysis 2011 52
Natural Gas Price StructureGas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.
CustomersSales Price Structure
Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs+ +
Power Producers 60%
EGAT 27% 1 75%: EGAT 27%
: IPP 21%
: SPP 12%
Average Purchased Gas Price
1.75%
1.75%
9.33%
21.8 Bt/MMBtu
GSP 21% Charged at the same price structure of power producers
Petrochemicals Feedstocks
Ethane Propane LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicalsEthane, Propane, LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals
NGL Reference to Naphtha market price
Local Cooking Gas
ki
Capped at 333 USD/ton
Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price
Industry 13% Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil
NGV 6% Capped at 9.5 Baht/Kg*
Export Cooking Gas
53
pp g
* Government will increase NGV retail price Baht 0.50 /kg per month from January 16, 2012 until January 15, 2013
• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions
Future Growth of PTTPTT International
Coal Pipeline
10 712.0
14.0Unit : MM TonSAR EMG (Egypt)
8.5 9 10.7 10.7• Investing 25% in EMG
• Offshore natural gas pipeline system
from Egypt to Israel2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jembayan Sebuku
• Expansion at Sebuku Northern Leases and Jembayan• Potential development in Brunei & Madagascar
• 2011 Sales volume = 0.69 BCM/y (67 mmscfd) due to interrupted supply
PowerPalm PlantationPTT Green Energy
• Potential development in Brunei & Madagascar projects
2011 Xayaburi Hydro 1,285 MW
2012Onwards
Expanding in neighboring countries
PTT Green Energy
• 225,877 Ha land acquired
• 19,706 Ha plantedo Additional 22 650 Ha has been Onwards countrieso Additional 22,650 Ha has been prepared in 2012.
• 2 CPO Mills : 45 T/Hr & 30 T/Hr operated commercially in Mid 2011p y
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