7/31/2015 AnalyticalGuidance:TurkeyIntensifiesItsRoleinSyria|Stratfor

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/analyticalguidanceturkeyintensifiesitsrolesyria 1/6

Tweet 7 1

Analytical Guidance: Turkey Intensifies Its Role inSyriaAnalysis JULY25,2015|00:00GMT Print TextSize

SummaryTurkeyischangingbothitsmilitarypostureanditspoliticalpolicytowardSyria.Formanyyears,astheSyrian

100Like

TurkisharmyvehiclesandpersonnelwaitatanassemblyareainSuruc,neartheSyrianborder,Feb.23.(ILYASAKENGIN/AFPPhoto)

7/31/2015 AnalyticalGuidance:TurkeyIntensifiesItsRoleinSyria|Stratfor

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/analyticalguidanceturkeyintensifiesitsrolesyria 2/6

civilwarraged,Turkey'sprimaryfocuswasonremovingBasharalAssad'sgovernmentratherthanbattlingtheIslamicState.AnkaraavoideddirectparticipationinthefightagainsteitheralAssadortheIslamicState,limitingitsrolelargelytosupportingcertainSyrianrebelfactions.OnereasonforthisstancewaswhatamountedtoanunofficialtrucewiththeIslamicStateunderwhichAnkaraturnedablindeyetoIslamicStateactivitiesinTurkeyaslongasthemilitantsstayedquietwithinitsborders.TurkeyalsorefusedtohostanysubstantialU.S.ledcoalitionairpower.ThelackofaccesstoTurkishairspace,combinedwithAnkara'shandsoffpolicytowardtheIslamicState,conflicteddirectlywiththeprimaryU.S.missionofdegrading,ifnotdestroying,theIslamicStateastheperceivedmainthreatintheregion.

AnalysisAfterseveralrecenthighlevelpoliticalandmilitarymeetingsbetweenTurkeyandtheUnitedStates,thetwocountriesappeartohavesettledtheirdifferences.Inrecentweeks,Turkeyhasmovedconsiderableforcessouth,closingoffthefinalsectionsofitsborderadjacenttoIslamicStatepositionsinSyria.Inaddition,AnkarafinallyopenedIncirlikairbaseandpossiblyotherairbasesforprimaryoremergencyusetoU.S.ledcoalitionaircraft.Moreover,TurkeybegancarryingoutitsownairstrikesagainstselectIslamicStatepositionsinSyria.

Aswellassealingtheborder,internalsecurityforcesbeganrollingupIslamicStatenetworks(andKurdistanWorkers'Partymilitants)inTurkey.ThetimingoftheseactionssuggeststhatAnkaraisexpectingabacklashfromthejihadists.OnceTurkeydecidedthatactivelycombatingtheIslamicStatewasinitsbestinterests,itwastednotimetoact.BynegotiatingadealwithWashingtonthatinvolvesworkingproactivelyagainsttheIslamicState,Ankarawillhavetoaccepttheconsequences.ThatanticipatedbacklashmanifestedinarecentcarbombattacknotfarfromKobaniandaborderclashbetweentheTurkishmilitaryandtheIslamicState.Butsofar,theretaliationhasbeenrelativelylimited.

7/31/2015 AnalyticalGuidance:TurkeyIntensifiesItsRoleinSyria|Stratfor

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/analyticalguidanceturkeyintensifiesitsrolesyria 3/6

The Impact in Syria

ThoughexactdetailsofAnkara'sdealwithWashingtonarestillemerging,thereisnodoubtthatincreasedTurkishinvolvementwillhaveasignificanteffectonthewarinSyria.

Firstandforemost,theTurkishmilitarymovingtosecurethebordersectionsabuttingIslamicStatepositionsinSyriashouldseriouslydegradeavitallogisticallinefortheIslamicState.Thejihadistgrouphasconsistentlybeenembroiledinfightingalongtheentireperipheryoftheterritoryitcarvedoutlastyear.ThisuncompromisingstrategyallowedtheIslamicStatetoexpandaggressively,butthejihadistshavestagnatedoverallandarenowonthedefensiveinmanyareas.DefendingprovedtobeanunexpecteddrainonIslamicStateresources,atatimewhentheyarealreadytakingheavylosses.

7/31/2015 AnalyticalGuidance:TurkeyIntensifiesItsRoleinSyria|Stratfor

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/analyticalguidanceturkeyintensifiesitsrolesyria 4/6

AlthoughtheIslamicStatewasabletogainmuchduringitsrapidexpansion,includingcapturedmilitarymateriel,thegroupalsoreliedheavilyonextendedsupplylines.TheselinesallowedtheIslamicStatetoexchangecapturedresourcessuchasoilandhistoricartifactsforweaponsandequipmentaswellasmoneytopayitsfighters.ThesupplylinesalsokeptasteadystreamofforeignfighterscomingintoreplenishtheIslamicState'sranks,whichallowedittosustainahighattritionrate.CuttingoffthesupplylinethroughTurkeywillhittheIslamicStatehardonallfronts,especiallyastheeffectsofthecutoffaccumulateovertime.

TheopeningofTurkishairbasesmakestheaircampaignagainstIslamicStatepositionsinSyriamassivelymoreefficient.ThepreviousdistancesinvolvedforU.S.ledcoalitionaircraftfromvariouslocationsinthelowerArabianPeninsulaensuredmidairrefuelingandlongerflighttimes.GreatlyreducingthedistancefromtakeofftotargetsinnorthernSyriagivesthecoalitionmoreoptions.Theseincludevaryingweaponspayloads,sortierates,thenumberofaircraftthatcanbeonstationand,mostimportant,persistenceoverenemyterritorythatwillimproveresponsiveness,intelligenceandsituationalawareness.Inshort,theaircampaignwillbecomeeasiertoconductinthisregionandcanbegreatlyexpandedifneeded.But,itwillnotbecomemoreeffectiveunlessthecoalitionincreasessurveillancecoverageandtrainedaircontrollersontheground.

TheincreasedthreattoIslamicStateterritoryinbothSyriaandIraqisnotlostonjihadistcommanders.Muchofthegroup'ssuccessdependedonthequickmovementofforcesandmaterielbetweentheaters.Thefracturingofsupplylinesdegradesthiscapabilityovertime.Anditwillonlygetworse.Theaircampaign'sgreaterreachintonorthernSyriawillinevitablydegradeIslamicStateforcesoverall,pinningsomeelementsinplace.Improvedloitertimealsomeanslesssanctuaryforhighvaluetargetshuntedbyincreasinglyeffectiveairassets.Inturn,theseeffectsarelikelytoimpacttheIslamicState'scommandandcontrol.

Turkey'spolicychangetowardtheIslamicStatesolvestwoproblemsatonce.Turkey'sprimaryfocuswasonremovingthealAssadgovernmentinSyriaandavoidingafullscalefightwiththeIslamicState.ThiskeptdomesticsecurityrelativelystableearlyonintheSyrianconflict.ButtheIslamicState'sexpansiveterritorialgrowthandaggressivenesstowardotherrebels(includingmanyTurkishbackedgroups)eventuallybecameintolerableforAnkara.TakingmilitaryactionagainsttheIslamicStateshouldeventuallybringreliefforthenorthernSyrianrebelsfightingboththeIslamicStateandSyriangovernmentforces.ThisbringsU.S.andTurkishinterestsintoalignment,andAnkaralikelyhopesthatthedegradationoftheIslamicStatewillleadtoacoherentrebelforcethatcanfocussolelyonSyriangovernmentforces.ThecostofAnkara'spolicychange,however,isthattheIslamicStatewillstrikeback.SomeattacksonTurkishsoilhavesucceeded,butinternalsecurityforcesareworkinghardtomitigatetheireffectiveness,andTurkeyhastheforcestructureandexperiencetohandleinternalmilitancy.

Quid Pro Quo

Aswithanydeal,thereisreciprocation.TurkeyhasgiventheUnitedStateswhatitwantstofighttheIslamicState,butWashingtonhasmadeconcessionsofitsown.TheselikelyinvolvegreatersupportforTurkishsponsoredrebelfactionsinnorthernSyria.Theissueofreciprocityraisesaseriesofquestionsaboutwhatotherchangesmightoccurintheongoingfight.

RumorsemergedrecentlythatTurkeycouldsendinafullscalemilitaryforcetocreateabufferzonethatwoulddisplacetheIslamicState(oranySyrianregimeforces)andserveasasafespacefromwhichrebelfactionscouldprojectpower.Technically,theactionsTurkeyhasalreadytakencouldaccomplishthisinalongertimeframe,butsuccessisnotassuredandTurkey'spatienceisbeingtested.ThemainquestionwouldbehowTurkey'sdomesticpopulationwouldreceivetheestablishmentofabufferzone.Turkeyisverypoliticallydivided,andanyovertTurkishmilitarymovescouldconceivablyoverlapwithAnkara'sKurdish

7/31/2015 AnalyticalGuidance:TurkeyIntensifiesItsRoleinSyria|Stratfor

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/analyticalguidanceturkeyintensifiesitsrolesyria 5/6

conundrum.TurkeyisfrustratedbytheamountofpositivepresstheKurdsreceivedastheonlytrustworthyoreffectiveforcefightingtheIslamicState.

TheTurkishmilitaryhasalreadymovedtheappropriateforcestructureintoplacetoestablishabufferzone.AlikelyindicatorthatTurkeyisestablishingthesafeareawouldbeasignificantincreaseinaerialandartillerybombardmentofIslamicStatepositionsabuttingtheTurkishborder,thoughsuchactionmightnotbenecessary.Turkeyhasavarietyoflevelsofinvolvementtochoosefrominpursuitofabufferzone,fromnoflyzonestothemanipulationofrebelforcesusingthetalentsofembeddedspecialoperationsforces.TurkishdailyHurriyetreportedJuly24,citinganonymoussources,thatapartialnoflyzoneovertheTurkishSyrianborderwouldbepartofthebroaderU.S.Turkishunderstanding.Thevolumeandlocationofairstrikesshouldbecarefullymonitoredandreportsofforcesembeddedwithrebelsshouldbecloselywatched.

AchangeinU.S.policytowardsupportfornorthernSyrianrebelsshouldalsobelookedfor.Currently,theUnitedStatesisstrikingonlytheIslamicStateinSyria,andthetrainandequipmissionitispursuingtocreatetheNewSyrianForceisintendedtofocusonthefightagainsttheIslamicState.Potentially,Washingtoncouldsoftenitsrestrictionsonthissupport.ThefirstfewtroopsfortheNewSyrianForceenteredSyriarecently.NewlyarrivedU.S.coalitionairpowercouldbeanexcellentforcemultiplierforanygroundtroopsinthevicinity.AnysignthatsuchairpowerortheU.S.trainedNewSyrianForceisbeingwovenintoTurkishbackedrebelscouldpointtoaU.S.policyshift.Additionally,U.S.airpower,especiallythroughoperationsoutofIncirlik,couldfacilitateanyofthebufferzoneoptionsthatTurkeyiscontemplating.

Inthelongerterm,Turkey'snewpoliciescouldleadtorealmilitarysuccessnotonlyagainsttheIslamicStatebutalsoagainsttheSyriangovernment.Thisraisesthequestionofwhetherrebelpoliticalcoherenceandstructurewillaccompanymilitarycoherenceandsuccess.Adominantandsomewhatcoherentrebelfactionthatcanassumeresponsibilitygivenapoliticalresolutiontotheconflictissomethingimportanttolookforincontext.

ForthealAssadgovernment,Turkey'sshiftshouldbealarming.AlthoughAnkaraisexpandingitsfocustoincludetheIslamicState,thischangewillhelptheotherSyrianrebelfactions,andeventuallyallpathsleadbacktoDamascus.TheUnitedStates,ontheotherhand,willtrytousetheaddedmilitarypressureontheSyriangovernmenttopushforanegotiatedsettlement.Withthemomentumbehindtherebelsandtheirsponsors,however,U.S.andRussianeffortstofashionsuchanagreementwillbehighlyconflicted.ThisistheriskthattheUnitedStatesiswillingtotakeinordertoclampdownontheIslamicState.

Tweet 7 1

Sendusyourthoughtsonthisreport.

100Like

EDITOR'S CHOICE

Cuba's Problems Beyond the Embargo

7/31/2015 AnalyticalGuidance:TurkeyIntensifiesItsRoleinSyria|Stratfor

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/analyticalguidanceturkeyintensifiesitsrolesyria 6/6

RELATED CONTENT

RELATED SITUATION REPORTS

After the Nuclear Deal, a Region Recalibrates

Dokdo Island: A Case Study in Asia's Maritime Disputes

Analytical Guidance: Turkey Intensifies Its Role in Syria

Analytic Guidance: The Syria Crisis

Analytic Guidance: The Tenuous Balance Between Israel and Hezbollah Is at Risk

Analytic Guidance: Keeping an Eye on Sudan's Supporting Role in Gaza

Turkey: 11 Countries Meet To Discuss Syria

France, United States: Countries Disagree On Role Of Iran In Iraq Action

Turkey: Buffer Zone With Syria Gains Momentum