Analytical Needs

SEMCOG Travel Model Improvement Program

Donnelly, Davidson, Binkowski & Arens 12-Dec-2011

The ideal model?

Responsive Current Attainable Agile Extensible

Needs driven

Evolutionary, compatible

Life-cycle view, incremental

Data, resources

Best practice, defensible, credible

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Outline

National issues and trends Federal requirements

Certification New Starts

Local requirements Strategic uses Tactical uses Performance measures

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Motivation for advanced models

TRB Special Report 288, “Metropolitan travel forecasting: current practice and future direction” (2007)

The committee therefore recommends development and implementation of new modeling approaches to demand forecasting that are better suited to providing reliable information for such applications as multimodal investment analyses, operational analyses, environmental assessments, evaluations of a wide range of policy alternatives, toll-facility revenue forecasts, and freight forecasts, and to meeting federal and state regulatory requirements.

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Federal requirements

Model certification (FHWA) Inventory of current transportation system Key assumptions driving forecasts Model descriptions

New Starts (FTA) Asymptomatic standard practice model Internal consistency Robust mode choice model Transit path-building and assignment Standardized reporting (SUMMIT)

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Local requirements

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Modeling “strategic shrinking”

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Growing regions Shrinking regions

Where to build capacity What capacity to save

Network expansion Operations and maintenance

Population and employment growth

Jobs retention

Who benefits Who is impacted

Equity implications Equity implications

Cursory cost-benefit analysis Rigorous cost-benefit analysis

Large projects Synergies of small projects

Congestion (unreliable networks) Congestion (aging networks)

Improving transit accessibility Improving transit accessibility

Cost-effective resource allocation Cost-effective resource allocation

Broad brush Fine brush

Performance measures

Transportation-related measures:Infrastructure utilization ratesPeak service, demand, and total consumptionTransit ridershipPercentage of time in compliance with AQ standards

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Requirements recommendations

Best practice (E7+) model Best practice (E7+) model

Activity-based model

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