Analytical Tools

TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING

M A R K W . R O S E G R A N TENVIRONMENT AND PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY DIVISIONINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, WASHINGTON, DC

analytical toolsTO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015

productivity

resilience/adaptation

low GHGemission

CLIMATE-SMARTAGRICULTURE COMPONENTS

analytical toolsTO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015

TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

climatesmart?

Yield risk under CC

Yield bounce after shock

GHG emission against baseline

Technology characterization

CLIMATE-SMARTNESS

ProductivityResilience

GHG Emission

analytical toolsTO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015

CLIMATE-SMARTNESS

ProductivityResilience

GHG EmissionOverall

Decision-makers will need to choose technologies or investments accounting for tradeoffs.

TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

Need for multi-objective decision-making tools that rationalize the evaluation of choices.

analytical toolsTO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015

WHAT DOES CSA MEAN FOR… the country as a whole? other non-ag land-uses? the global economy?

ECONOMIC FEASIBILITYASSESSMENT

analytical toolsTO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015

Economicallyviable?

Large-scale effects+ other land-uses

Wide uptake ofCSA options

Policy scenario analysis

CLIMATE-SMARTNESS

ProductivityResilience

GHG EmissionOverall

Global economic forces

ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT

analytical toolsTO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015

WHEREGeospatial Baseline & Targeting

WHICHCommodity Priority Setting

WHATTechnology Characterization & Inventory

+Integrated Impact Assessments

SUPPORTING TOOLS

HOWPolicy Simulation & Scenario-Making Tools

analytical toolsTO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015

POLICY SIMULATIONEXAMPLE

Simulating the aggregate effects of crop choices by individual risk-averse farmers due to climate change.

analytical toolsTO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015

AdoptionForum SustainabilityPrioritization

1

2

3

Prioritizingagricultural

commodities according to CSA criteria

Stakeholder engagement and scenario exploration

Economic effects of wide-scale adoption of

CSA

Evaluation of long-term

economic & financial

sustainability

POLICY-MAKING ENABLING ENVIRONMENT

analytical toolsTO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015

Rainfall and Drought History

Commodity Priority

Setting Tool

Agritech Toolbox

SUPPORTING TOOLSEXAMPLES

analytical toolsTO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015

CSA INDICATORS FOR COUNTRY LEVELEXAMPLES

Water efficientmanagement

Soil fertility management

TECHNOLOGY

Road quality and density

Accuracy of weather and climate forecasts

INFRA-STRUCTURE

Social safety nets

Planning with CC risk assessment

POLICY

analytical toolsTO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015

CONCLUDINGREMARKS

CSA forces us to shifts the emphasis from policies that aim at a single targets to policies that have multiple objectives.

CSA changes the planning time horizon: policies and analyses necessarily spanlong time periods of 20-30 years.

analytical toolsTO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015

CONCLUDINGREMARKS

Therefore, CSA requires the use of integrated modeling frameworks thatwork at multiple geographical scales to:

1) Prioritize investments and provide an accurate understanding of tradeoffs

2) Design long-term economically and politically sustainable policies

analytical toolsTO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015

CONCLUDINGREMARKS

More importantly, given its complexity, CSA requires an even closer collaboration between policy makers and research community.