analytical work to support the development of of policy ... 29.05... · perú’sindcs 1....
TRANSCRIPT
Analytical work to support the development of
of policy options for mid-and long-term mitigation objectives in Perú
May, 2015
1. Peru’s INDCs
2 Where we started: Input
3. INDCs analyses work- PMR
4. Further work
Content
Perú’s INDCs
1. Participatory work including othersectors.
2. Build upon what’s been advanced andplanned.
3. Adopt the contribution at a techinicaland political level.
4. Create a Long Term Action Plan(implement and control the iNDC)
Estrategia
Solid and voluntary, technically validated and
with political support for its implementation
Perús INDC (II) : Institutional arrangements
DGCCDRH
Interinstitutional coordination to determine the potential of GHG
emissions reductions
Economic analysis of the mitigation
options
Analysis of the iNDC’s macroeconomic
impact
Peer review of the
technical inputs
Development of guidelines for the implementation
of the iNDCs
Continued facilitation of the process by the Ministry of Environment
Perú
TIM
EL
INE
TO
PA
RIS
Complementary analysis
Meetings of the Milti- Sectoral Comission
Public consultation
Stakehiolders participation
Regional workshops
*Updated: April, 2015
Perú’s INDC (III) : Technical and participatory process
Deadline
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1 Nov 30
Where we started : Input
Sectorial Programs Sectorial Projects
National and sectorial strategies NAMAs
National plans forPlanCC Project – Phase 1
iNDCs
Where we started (II): Input
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Fast Sc. ↓ 10%
Sustainable Sc. ↓ 41%
Saving Sc. ↓ 20%
BAU 9,932
MM
Required
by science
Millones de Tn
de CO2eq
INDCs analyses work
Private sector
Public sector
Civil Society
ContributionsMitigation
Transparent & quantifiable
Relatedreductions
Nat
ion
alIn
tern
atio
nal
Financial analysisCo-benefits
Enabling conditions Macroecoomic Simulation
Graduality
INDCs analyses work- PMR (II)
Assess the macro-economic aspects of emission reduction pathways
Build emission-reduction pathways from the list of GHG mitigation options
Broaden the scope of the analysis of selected mitigation options: Quantified financialanalysis
Assess the macro-economic aspects of emission reduction pathways : GDP Projections
INDCs analyses work- PMR(III)
INDCs analyses work- PMR(IV)
Assess the macro-economic aspects of emission reduction pathways : CGE simulation
Soccial Accounting
Matrix(SAM)
BAU scenario
projection
GDP and
population
projection
Emission
Invenntory
Emission
projections
IO MAtrix,
National
accounts
Emissions
SAM Calibration
General Equilibrium ModelMitigation
Scenarios
Emission
reduction
Socioecono
mic impacts
Results
Model
Structure
Mitigation
options
GEM
BAU scenario replica
SAM 2007 with sectorial
emissions.
bottom-up and top-down
methodology
Pseudo-dynamic MEG including
USCUSS sectorScenarios
• Equilibrated Government budget balance – no fiscal deficit in the LT
• No transaction costs
• Governent revenue are allocated to public investment, consumption
and transfers
• Endogenous capital accumulation.
• Exogenpuos productivity and labor supply growth
• Land as a factor of production
• Emission intensity factors
• 25 economic activities included in the model.
Model Assumptions
Assumptions
of the Governmen’s
Model
characteristics
INDCs analyses work- PMR(IV)
Assess the macro-economic aspects of emission reduction pathways : CGE simulation – key assumptions
INDCs analyses work- PMR(V)
Build emission-reduction pathways from the list of GHG
mitigation options : Maccinert
Source : Vogt-Schilb et al (2014)
Aim : seek both quantity and quality of abatement, by combining a “synergy
approach” that focuses on the cheapest mitigation options and maximizes co-
benefits, and an “urgency approach” that starts from a long-term objective
and works backward to identify actions that need to be implemented early.
INDCs analyses work- PMR(VII)
Broaden the scope of the analysis of selected mitigation
options: Quantified financial analysis
Initial list ofmitigation
options)
Estimation of main financial
indicators
Review of estimated costsand projected
cashflows
Identification of domestic financial
resources & instruments
Further work
Presentation of the iNDCs proposal– May 28
Public consultation– June- & July 31
Presentation of the iNDCs proprosal to the internacional community– June 5
iNDCs submission– August 31
Assessment of the potential and the graduality of implementation of the iNDCs proposal - Macinert
Simulation of the CGE model including the INDCs proposal and carbon pricing alternatives
Final simulation of the CGE model (EE+ cobenefits+ adjusted information )
Results of the financial analysis of the selected mitigation options
Thank [email protected]