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© 2009 IBM Corporation

Intelligence Analysis for Smarter DefenceLesson’s Learned from 1,512 Days in Iraq and Afghanistan

Michael McCracken, Major, USAFR and Military Intelligence Strategy Leader, IBM

10 October 2012


To help intelligence drive operations, build a bigger box.

41,512 days

422,680 hours410 unforgettable missions


Organize information the way you want it to be found(Visually, Verbally, or Numerically)

• Atlas

• Maps

• Latitude and LongitudeL

A

T

C

H

by Location

by Alphabet

by Time

by Category

by Hierarchy

• Dictionary

• Maps

• Latitude and Longitude

• Historical timeline

• Time Magazine

• History Novel

• Encyclopedia

• Department Store

• Yahoo Search Engine

• Largest to Smallest

• Darkest to Lightest

• Densest to Least Dense


August 2006 – February 2007

MNF-I CJ2X Detainee Operations, Bagdad, IraqOfficer-In-Charge, Combined Review and Release Board (Capt, USAFR)

• Vetting Detainees Scheduled for Release

• Determine AQ-IZ

• Coordinate with TF-134 CG

• Mission 3x with NO additional resources

• Rising Political Pressures

• High Intelligence Analysts Turnover

1

2

Mission

Problem

3 Lesson• Controlled Vetting Process

• Shop Standards

• Performance-based Metrics


June 2008 – August 2008

MNC-I Counter-Improvised Explosive Devices Cell, IraqExplosively Formed Projectile Intelligence Analyst (US DoD Contractor)

• Analyze C-IED Tactics, Techniques and Procedures

• Analyze EFP Tactics, Techniques and Procedures

• Develop link analysis of IED cells in MNF-Ds

• Analysis miss-aligned with analysis areas of focus

• Duplicative efforts of MNF-I Intel Teams

• Lack of cohesive intelligence strategy

1

2

Mission

Problem

3 Lesson• C-IED Cell disbanded / realigned with area teams

• MNC-I / MNF-I combined

• Comprehensive C-IED efforts imbedded across AO


August 2008 – March 2009

MNSTC-I Intelligence Transition Team, Green Zone, IraqInformation Technology / Intelligence Analyst (US DoD Contractor)

• Branch of MNF-I

• Develop, Organize, Train and Equip MoD/MoI

• Build sustainable intelligence model for IZ forces

• IZ forces lacked basic technical / intelligence skills

• IZ skeptical of western assistance

• Rapid build-up of capabilities pushed by CF

1

2

Mission

Problem

3 Lesson• Progress requires host-nation buy-in

• Fundamental education required to build forces

• Sustainable capabilities require financial foundation


March 2009 – February 2010

NTM-A RC-North Coordination Center, Mazar-e Sharif, AFIntelligence Mentor to RC-North Coordination Center for ANA/ANP/NDS (US DoD Contractor)

• Branch of ISAF-A

• Develop, Organize, Train and Equip MoD/MoI

• Build basic intelligence skills of 209th Corp

• ANA/ANP lacked skills / desire to learn

• AF Forces have weak vetting process

• Challenged by basic intelligence skill sets

1

2

Mission

Problem

3 Lesson• ISAF/USFOR-A unable to measure results

• DoD/DoS difficulty developing training program

• Security efforts continue to plague training mission


March 2010 – June 2010

Biometric Enabled Intelligence, Kandahar (RC-S), AFBEI Intelligence Analyst for 2 SCR Brigade HQ/FOBs in RC-S (US DoD Contractor)

• Easiest method to establish positive identification

• Develop comprehensive biometric program

• Build base of biometrically enrolled AF citizens

• Lack of priority and conflicting mission requirements

• ANA/ANP contamination of IED Explosions / F&C

• Slow reach-back support and low bandwidth

1

2

Mission

Problem

3 Lesson• Improved training and leadership buy-in

• Stronger education / combined C-IED efforts

• Enemy tactics discovered and exploited across AO


July 2010 – February 2012

Deputy Chief of Staff, Intelligence ISAF HQ, Kabul, AFIntelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Analyst for US ISR-Task Force (US DoD Contractor)

• Support COMISAF on all Intelligence matters

• Develop comprehensive ISR mission

• Train and equip ISAF-A/USFOR-A on all intel

• Personality lead efforts / Fix Intelligence

• Intelligence Assessments / Tactical Employment

• Intelligence Fusion or Hidden Agendas

1

2

Mission

Problem

3 Lesson• Right person for the right job

• Aerostats / Continue to ISR Surge / Build capes

• Be careful what you ask for (and get)


Intelligence Assessment

External focus(Intelligence Community)

Collaboration

Internal focus(agency)

Interconnected objectives

TrainingDataDiscoverability

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