analyzing demand of e-learning professor: dr. kimiagary student: arman daneshvaran

AnalyzingAnalyzing Demand of E-Learning Demand of E-Learning

Professor: Dr. KimiagaryProfessor: Dr. Kimiagary

Student: Arman DaneshvaranStudent: Arman Daneshvaran

The Economic of EducationThe Economic of Education

►HistoryHistory

USAUSA

19601960

Theodore SchultzTheodore Schultz

The Economic of EducationThe Economic of Education

►SubjectsSubjects

Human CapitalHuman Capital

Performance RatePerformance Rate

Human resource expectationsHuman resource expectations

Cost of educationCost of education

KPIKPI

Market for teachers & Students Market for teachers & Students

AgendaAgenda

►Problem DefinitionProblem Definition►Targets of researchTargets of research►Research StakeholdersResearch Stakeholders►Iran today’s conditionIran today’s condition►Problems of researchProblems of research►Designing ModelDesigning Model► Validating ModelValidating Model► ConclusionConclusion

Problem DefinitionProblem Definition

► What are Our Problems in learning?What are Our Problems in learning? High level of demand for learning in Iran.

The capacity of learning Institute can not satisfy demand of learning in all over The country.

There are poor restrictions where learning service is not available.

Request to learn for people who have no time to attend in Learning institute.

Traditional methods for learning are inefficient and time consuming. They can not receive feed back from work area and change thyself dynamically.


It should be sensitive enough to receive feed

Back from environment.

It has no limitationin time, distance and number of learner

By using of new technologies, it should

improve learning process

It should be flexible enough to update itself by new expectations

Solution


►E- Learning may be good solution for these E- Learning may be good solution for these problems, but how?problems, but how?

►What are the advantages and disadvantages of What are the advantages and disadvantages of this solution?this solution?

►Which Factors constraint our ability to design Which Factors constraint our ability to design and implement efficient learning system?and implement efficient learning system?


E-Learning LMS Multiagent

LCMS

WebBase

Advantage:No limitation in time, distance & location

disadvantage:It is not possible to every learner having Access to internet

Advantage:No limitation in time, distance & location

disadvantage:It is not possible to every learner having Access to internet

Advantage:Unlimited capacity for leaner!

disadvantage:Cost of production Needing to high technology

Advantage:Unlimited capacity for leaner!

disadvantage:Cost of production Needing to high technology

Advantage:Flexibility Content management!

disadvantage:Cost of productionNeeding to high technology

Advantage:Flexibility Content management!


Advantage:Improve learning process.


Advantage:Improve learning process.


AgendaAgenda


Targets of researchTargets of research

►Identifying effective factor on demand ofIdentifying effective factor on demand of

E-Learning.E-Learning.

►Develop model to estimate demand of Develop model to estimate demand of

E- Learning.E- Learning.

►Finding the solutions for extending E-Learning.Finding the solutions for extending E-Learning.

AgendaAgenda


Research StakeholdersResearch Stakeholders

►E-Learning Portal ProducerE-Learning Portal Producer Market expectationsMarket expectations Expected IncomeExpected Income

► Learning InstituteLearning Institute Learning PlanLearning Plan InvestmentInvestment

► GovernmentGovernment Strategic PlanningStrategic Planning

AgendaAgenda


Iran today’s conditionIran today’s condition

►There is no master plan to develop E-Learning.There is no master plan to develop E-Learning.

►People are not familiar with E-Learning and its People are not familiar with E-Learning and its functionalities.functionalities.

►Just few universities and institutes deliverJust few universities and institutes deliver

E-Learning services.E-Learning services.

►There is not basic infrastructure for E-Learning. There is not basic infrastructure for E-Learning.

AgendaAgenda


Problems of researchProblems of research

►There is no enough data for statistical analysis.There is no enough data for statistical analysis. There is not aggregated data from all centers.There is not aggregated data from all centers.

There is not validated reference for data gathering.There is not validated reference for data gathering.

The number of data gathering periods are less than expected The number of data gathering periods are less than expected number for statistical analysis. number for statistical analysis.

……


►Analyzing a country with similar conditions.Analyzing a country with similar conditions.►What conditions:What conditions:

CulturalCultural PopulationPopulation DevelopmentDevelopment GNPGNP Available data for researchAvailable data for research

► The reference of research are:The reference of research are: Internet ( Educational website)Internet ( Educational website) MagazinesMagazines


NameName DataData CultureCulture PopulationPopulation DevelopmentDevelopment GNPGNP

MalaysiaMalaysia MM LL HH LL LL

UAEUAE MM MM LL LL LL

TurkeyTurkey MM HH HH HH HH

1. L: Low

2. M: Medium

3. H: High


NameName DataData CultureCulture PopulationPopulation DevelopmentDevelopment GNPGNP

TurkeyTurkey MM HH HH HH HH

AgendaAgenda


Data gatheringData gathering

►Model Time scope:Model Time scope: 1998 – 20061998 – 2006

►Frequency of data gatheringFrequency of data gathering Semi-annualSemi-annual

►Model boundariesModel boundaries TurkeyTurkey

Designing ModelDesigning Model

Demand of E-Learning

Demand of E-Learning

Average of learner’s

age


age

Number of Internet

users

Number of Internet

users

E-LearningAverage

cost

E-LearningAverage

cost

Demand of

Learning

Demand of

Learning

E-LearningperformanceE-Learningperformance

Explicative VariablesExplicative Variables

Total Demand Of Learning

Total Demand Of Learning

E - LearningE - Learning

TraditionalLearning

TraditionalLearning

CapacityCapacity

CostCost

Time & DistanceTime & Distance

EfficiencyEfficiency

KnowledgeKnowledge

RestrictionsRestrictions


Demand of Learning

Population

GNP

Learning performance

Learning Services


E-LearningAverage

cost

E-LearningAverage

cost

Fixed CostFixed Cost

PortalPortal

ContentContent

PolicyPolicy

Private SectorPrivate Sector

E - LearningE - LearningDeliveryDelivery

Variable CostVariable Cost

Note:The increase in demand may lead to decrease the price of E-learning!

Note:The increase in demand may lead to decrease the price of E-learning!

GovernmentGovernment


Learner point of view

Learner point of view

Market point of view

Market point of view

Learning processLearning process

Job OpportunityJob Opportunity

WageWage

Performance of E – learning graduated

Performance of E – learning graduated

E-LearningperformanceE-Learningperformance

Note:The affection of advertisement on performance of e-learning

Note:The affection of advertisement on performance of e-learning


FeasibilityFeasibility

ExpenseExpense

CultureCulture

QualityQuality

Number of Internet

users

Number of Internet

users



age


age

Free TimeFree Time

Use of InternetUse of Internet

Developing ModelsDeveloping Models

First ModelFirst Model::Y = C(0) + C(1) * X1 + C(2) * X2 + C(3) * X3 + C(4) * X4 + C(5) * X5Y = C(0) + C(1) * X1 + C(2) * X2 + C(3) * X3 + C(4) * X4 + C(5) * X5

Second Model:Second Model:Y = C(0) + C(1) * X1 + C(2) * X2 + C(3) * X3 + C(4) * X4Y = C(0) + C(1) * X1 + C(2) * X2 + C(3) * X3 + C(4) * X4

Third Model:Third Model:Y = C(1) * X1 + C(2) * X2 + C(3) * X3 + C(4) * X4Y = C(1) * X1 + C(2) * X2 + C(3) * X3 + C(4) * X4

Fourth Model:Fourth Model:Y = C(1) * X1 + C(2) * X2 + C(3) * X3 + C(4) * X4 + C(5) Y(-1)Y = C(1) * X1 + C(2) * X2 + C(3) * X3 + C(4) * X4 + C(5) Y(-1)

Theoretical ModelTheoretical Model

Demand of E-Learning =

+ C1 (Demand Of Learning)

+ C2 (E-Learning average cost)

+ C3 (E-Learning performance)

+ C4 (Number of Internet users)

Analytical ModelAnalytical Model

E-Views Result Of Equation

Analytical ModelAnalytical Model

Actual, Fitted, Residual Graph

Linear Regression Model HypothesesLinear Regression Model Hypotheses

► E (uE (uii ) = 0) = 0

E (uE (uii ) = 0.0000428 , i = 1, 2, 3, … , 17) = 0.0000428 , i = 1, 2, 3, … , 17

►E (uE (ui i uujj) = 0) = 0 Park TestPark Test

►E (uE (ui i uuii) = ) = σσ22uu

GraphGraph

λλ11 X X11 + + λλ22 X X22++ λλ33 X X33 + + λλ44 X X44 < > 0 < > 0

ConclusionConclusion

►Regression is not suitable approach for this Regression is not suitable approach for this problem because:problem because:

E-Learning Mark is not balanced so we should modeling for E-Learning Mark is not balanced so we should modeling for short term, but the interval between data is so long.short term, but the interval between data is so long.

The past data can not support future theories for modeling.The past data can not support future theories for modeling.

As result of the complexity of problem, we can not ignore the As result of the complexity of problem, we can not ignore the

interrelationships between variables.interrelationships between variables.

System DynamicsSystem Dynamics

Casual Diagram

Thanks for yourThanks for your

attention & patientattention & patient

analyzing demand of e-learning professor: dr. kimiagary student: arman daneshvaran

Documents

demand of learning

learning processit

elearning services

capacity of learning

efficient learning system

demand of e

high level of demand

high technologyadvantage