ANALYZING FIREFIGHTER INJURIES AT

VACANT AND ABANDONED BUILDING FIRES

IN FLINT, MICHIGAN BEFORE AND AFTER

IMPLEMENTATION OF A RISK MANAGEMENT POLICY

By

Andrew Graves

Capstone Project

In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of:

Master of Public Administration

Eastern Michigan University

Committee Members:

James Ivers, Ph.D.

Joseph Ohren, Ph.D.

December 2012

Ypsilanti, Michigan

ii

Table of Contents

vi

Acknowledgemen vii

iv

.... v

SECTION 1: 1

1

Statement o 2

3

5

6

9

SECTION 2: LITE 10

Firefighting and Abandoned 10

The Effect of Abandoned Properties 15

19

SECTION 3: METHODOLOGY AND RESEARCH DESIGN 20

20

Research Design 21

Data Collection and Ana 22

SECTION 4: FINDINGS - 25

Structure Fire Volume and F 25

Civilian Life Safety and Preservatio 29

iii

30

Complete Work Restriction and Light D 32

37

41

SECTION 5: FINDINGS - 43

43

43

44

45

Comparison of Complete Work Restriction Hours and Costs 47

Comparison of Light Duty Restriction Hours and Costs 50

51

52

53

Post- 56

59

SECTION 6: FINDINGS - GIS 59

Introduction 59

GIS Maps 60

Pre-Policy Fires 61

Post Policy Fires 62

Total Fires 63

Pre-Policy Injuries 64

Post-Policy Injuries 65

Total Injuries 66

iv

Summary 67

SECTION 7: CONCLUSI 67

.. 67

Recommendations for Futur 70

SECTION 8: REFERENCE 72

SECTION 9: APPENDICE 74

Appendix A: Glossary of 74

Appendix B: Sample of MI-OSHA 300 Log of Work- 75

Appendix C: Sample of Excel 76

LIST OF FIGURES

1. Vacant / Abandoned and Occupied Building Fires, 2002 - 26

1. Pre-Policy Tactics at Vacant and Abandoned Building Fires 27

2. Post-Policy Tactics at Vacant and Abandon 27

3. Percentage of Offensive Attacks at Vacant and A 28

4. 28

5. Post-Fire Property Status, 2002 - 30

6. Rate of Firefighter Injury at Vacant and Abandoned 31

7. Total Cost of Injury-Related Work 33

8. Cost of Injury-Related Light Duty 34

9. Cost of Injury- 34

10. Cost of Burn-Related Complete Wo 39

11. Cost of Burn-Related Light Duty Restriction 39

12. Total Cost of Burn-Related Work R 40

13. Histogram of Pre-Policy Firefigh 54

v

14. Histogram of Post-Policy Firefight 55

15. Histogram of Post-Fire Property Status, Pre-Po 57

16. Histogram of Post-Fire Property Status, Post- 58

17. Pre-Policy Fire Density GIS M 61

18. Post- 62

19. 63

20. Pre- 64

21. Post-Policy Injuries and Fire 65

22. 66

LIST OF TABLES

1. Table of Injury Types an 36

2. Table of Projected Injury Type

vi

Abstract

Fires in vacant and abandoned buildings are frequently the sites of firefighter injuries.

Reducing risk to firefighters during vacant and abandoned building fires was the focus of a 2007

City of Flint Fire Department policy. Many departments across the United States have enacted

similar policies. There is a lack of research to determine if such policies are actually effective in

reducing firefighter injuries.

This study examines quantitative data collected from City of Flint records. The study

focuses on a ten-year period from August 2002 to August 2012. The frequency and cost of

injuries has been calculated during this period. Data from the five-year period preceding the

policy and the five-year period after the policy has been compared and contrasted. This analysis

frequency, severity, and cost of firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires.

vii

Acknowledgments

A special thank you to my wife, Sabrina, and my daughters, Emily and Erica. Their

patience, love, understanding, and support have been wonderful throughout my graduate school

experience and the writing of this capstone.

Thank you to Dr. James Ivers and Dr. Joseph Ohren, the professors for my capstone

committee and frequent teachers throughout the MPA program. It has been a pleasure working

with you.

This capstone would not have been possible without the 2007 policy implemented by the

Flint Fire Department after my initial study of this issue. Thank you to retired Fire Chief Richard

Dicks, retired Assistant Chief Dandre Williams, Dwyna Dunlap, and Alicia Alfaro for assisting

me in the project that became the impetus for this capstone study.

1

Introducti on

Abandoned building fires have become a significant problem for fire departments across

the country. Abandoned buildings present a ready target for arsonists and a hazardous

environment for firefighters. Abandoned buildings have a minimal value to the community even

before they are damaged by fire. Abandoned buildings are havens for crime, blight, and

vandalism that reduce the value of nearby properties.

Firefighters frequently suffer injuries at abandoned building fires. Many fire departments

have addressed this problem through local policies. Norman (2004) expresses concerns that this

problem is only addressed at a local level. There has been little discussion at the state or national

level to inform other fire departments of abandoned building fire issues that are addressed at the

local level.

Flint, Michigan is plagued by frequent fires in vacant and abandoned buildings. Annual

FBI crime statistics gave the city the dubious distinction of being ranked number one in per

capita arson for cities over 100,000 in population in 2010 and 2011 (Harris, 2012).

A high rate of firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires was identified in

a 2007 study that examined fires occurring in Flint over a one-year period. The rate of firefighter

injury at abandoned building fires in Flint far exceeded the national average cited by Ahrens

(2007). The Flint Fire Department responded to the study by creating and implementing a policy

to manage firefighter risk at vacant and abandoned building fires.

2

Statement of the Problem

Fire departments experience a high rate of firefighter injury at vacant and abandoned

building fires. In order to reduce firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires, risk

management policies should be implemented by fire departments. A risk versus reward analysis

should be conducted by incident commanders prior to committing firefighters to interior

operations at vacant and abandoned building fires.

Many fire departments have addressed vacant and abandoned building fires at the local

level. There is a great body of research linking vacant and abandoned building fires to a high rate

of firefighter injury. However, there is very little research to determine the effectiveness of local

fire department vacant and abandoned building policies.

Without a risk management policy for vacant and abandoned buildings, fire departments

will continue to expose firefighters to unnecessary risks and incur a high rate of injury. Adopting

risk management policies for vacant and abandoned building fires will reduce firefighter injuries

and improve departmental efficiency.

This research project examines the effectiveness of the 2007 Flint Fire Department risk

management policy for vacant and abandoned buildings. The findings of this study show a sharp

decrease in the both the frequency and severity of firefighter injuries after the policy was

implemented.

3

Background

Flint, Michigan is an urban city covering a 34.1 square mile area located 70 miles north

of Detroit. The city was incorporated in 1855. Flint began an ascent from modest beginnings to

become a major hub of the automotive industry in the early 1900s. Flint became the home of the

Buick Motor Company, General Motors, AC Spark Plug, and several other automotive

companies. It was a major site of Chevrolet automobile manufacturing.

factories once employed 80,000 people. In the late 1960s, a pattern of downturn began.

Manufacturing jobs moved away from Flint and the city began experiencing economic pressure

amidst declining population and tax base.

Many automotive factories were closed and eventually demolished. The General Motors

workforce dwindled to an estimated 8,000 employees by

decreased nearly in half, with the 2010 Census finding 102,434 residents. Population loss

and income tax decreased 36% in East Cleveland, Ohio following a decade of population loss.

The Flint Fire Department protects the city. The Department has seen a similar pattern of

stations with nearly 300 fire suppression personnel. The diminishing tax base caused numerous

layoffs, station closings, and staffing reductions through attrition.

Today, the Department staffs four fire stations with 86 fire suppression personnel, 39

funded by a federal grant due to expire in 2014. The city is currently seeking a public safety

millage to retain the federally funded staff in case the grant expires. Without the millage or an

extension of federal funding, the Department will likely see further reductions in staffing and

services.

4

Structure fire call volume has steadily increased over the last several decades.

Department records show that it responded to 369 structure fire calls in 1970. In 2011, the

Department responded to 945 structure fire calls. One of the most significant factors in the sharp

increase in fire volume is the dramatic rise in the number of abandoned buildings.

The population exodus from Flint has left behind thousands of vacant and abandoned

buildings; 2010 US Census data showed that Flint was second only to hurricane-ravaged New

Orleans in population loss since 2000. Abandoned buildings present a readily available,

unguarded target for arsonists. Flint has seen vacant and abandoned building fires rise from 35%

of total structure fires in 2003 to 60% of total structure fires in 2012.

Abandoned buildings are a drain on community resources and services. Accordino (2002)

describes a steadily worsening pattern when population loss occurs. Neighborhoods transition

from owner-based homes to landlord-based rental occupancies. Less valuable properties are

eventually abandoned, resulting in mortgage foreclosure and / or property tax default.

The abandoned buildings still demand police, fire, and code enforcement services while

providing little or no tax revenue to the community. Rule (2001) argues that abandoned buildings

have no value unless they are repaired to an inhabitable condition or demolished. Griswold and

Norris (2007) found that a demolition program targeting abandoned buildings in Flint increased

the property tax base by over $112 million.

Abandoned building fires represent a significant hazard to firefighters. Abandoned

buildings are neglected and commonly in a state of disrepair. Exposure to the elements,

vandalism, looting, and recurring fires cause structural hazards and instability. Fires in

abandoned buildings are often intentionally set using accelerants. The lack of legal occupants

5

and incendiary ignition create more advanced, more dangerous conditions for firefighters than

would be typically be found in an accidental occupied building fire.

Ahrens (2007) found that vacant and abandoned buildings were the source of 6% of

national fire calls, but were the source of 13% of firefighter injuries. Graves (2007) found that in

Flint, 62% of firefighter injuries over a one-year period occurred at vacant and abandoned

buildings. As a result of the Graves study, Flint implemented a policy to reduce firefighter risk at

vacant and abandoned building fires.

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to determine the effectiveness of a 2007 City of Flint Fire

Department policy on vacant and abandoned building fires. Advocating for the more frequent use

of defensive operations (See Glossary, Appendix A) at vacant and abandoned buildings has been

very controversial within the fire service. Critics within the fire service argue that defensive

operations cause undue risk of injury or death to civilians who may be trapped in a burning

vacant or abandoned building. Critics cite that there is no way to know if a burning building is

truly vacant unless firefighters immediately search it.

Advocates within the fire service argue that defensive operations balance the risk that

firefighters are exposed to against the minimal chances of civilians being in a burning vacant or

abandoned building. Advocates cite that all buildings are searched for potential victims, but in

the vacant or abandoned building, searches take place after the fire has been largely controlled

and risk concerns addressed.

There has been discussion at the national level regarding minimizing firefighter risks at

vacant and abandoned buildings. Notably, the National Institution for Occupational Safety and

6

Health released a safety alert to the fire service in 2009. The alert issues recommendations on

firefighter risk management at unoccupied buildings. However, at the local level, many fire

departments have not addressed vacant and abandoned building fires through policy change.

Norman (2007) expressed concerns that policy change at the local level is typically borne from

tragedy.

This study furthers the knowledge on the subject of firefighter injuries at vacant and

abandoned building fires. Based on this case study of Flint, Michigan, it is hoped that

information gained within this locality can be used to foster discussion of this issue among fire

service professionals and public administrators at the local, state, and national level.

Research Questions

The goal of this study is to collect and analyze data on fires and firefighter injuries in

Flint to assess the effectiveness of the 2007 risk management policy. The study utilizes

quantitative analysis to determine if any measurable changes have occurred in Department

injuries and operations after the policy was implemented. The following research questions serve

to guide the analysis:

1. Did the 2007 risk management policy have any measurable effect on the frequency of

firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires?

This question is a primary focus of this study. In 2007, the Graves study found that

7

writing for the National Fire Protection Association, found that the national average rate of

firefighter injury at vacant buildings was 3.7 injuries per 100 fires.

2. Did the 2007 risk management policy have any measurable effect on the severity of

firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires?

This question is also a primary focus of this study. The 2007 Graves study found that

vacant and abandoned building fires constituted 40% of Department fire call volume and that

vacant and abandoned building fires caused 62% of firefighter injuries. The study found that 21

injuries at vacant or abandoned building fires caused 3,112 hours lost to injury compensation

time. Correspondingly, 13 injuries at occupied buildings caused 768 hours lost to injury

compensation time. This study assesses fifteen categories of firefighter injuries to compare and

contrast severity before and after the policy.

3. Did the 2007 risk management policy have any measurable effect on the cost to the City

for firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires?

This question is also a primary focus of this study. The City incurred a high rate of cost

from injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires in the 2007 study. In this study, the hours an

injured employee spent on complete work restriction and light duty restriction have been

collected from city records. Quantitative analysis will examine whether costs related to injury

have changed after the policy was implemented. The issue of cost is of interest beyond the fire

8

service; municipal risk managers, budget officials, and workers compensation officials have a

considerable interest in this question.

Collection of injury cost data did not include overtime costs that may have been incurred

due to a firefighter injury. Records of daily staffing levels and overtime costs are not complete or

available for the period of this study. An attempt to recreate daily staffing levels and potential

overtime costs would be likely be purely speculative.

ee were also not

assessed in the study. The City utilizes a third party claims service, Eagle Claims Management,

a written release would need to be obtained from the City and each individual employee subject

to inquiry. For the 10-year timeframe of this study, obtaining releases from 155 employees who

suffered an injury would be incomplete and overly burdening on time needed to complete this

project.

4. Did the 2007 risk management policy have any measurable effect on firefighting

strategies used at vacant and abandoned building fires?

The goal of the policy was to reduce firefighter injuries by altering firefighting strategies

at vacant and abandoned building fires. Using internal fire records, the firefighting strategy used

at each vacant and abandoned building fire during the study period was quantified. The analysis

is designed to determine if there has been any measurable change in firefighting strategies, and

whether there is a correlation between a change in firefighting strategies and firefighter injuries.

9

The implementation of the policy was a cultural change for the Department. Prior to the

policy, all buildings were treated the same regardless of state of occupancy. There was some

initial resistance to this cultural change. The research aims to answer whether a six-page policy

and three one-hour training sessions can affect decades of existing Department culture.

5. What has happened to vacant and abandoned properties in Flint after a fire incident?

The two primary goals of firefighting are saving lives and preserving property.

Firefighters take personal risk upon themselves to accomplish those two goals. Risks are taken

by firefighters to preserve property with the unspoken expectation that a property owner will

benefit from that risk and effort.

In Flint, there is a high frequency of fires in vacant and abandoned buildings. Utilizing

City property tax records and site visitations, vacant and abandoned properties that burned during

the study period were assessed. The status of property affected by fire was quantified, and the

analysis is designed to examine whether vacant and abandoned buildings that burn are repaired

and re-occupied or if they are demolished. This question is important to answer since it will help

guide fire incident commanders in risk management decisions at vacant and abandoned building

fires.

(NFIRS) records. The NFIRS system allows buildings to be classified by code number as under

construction, occupied, idle and not routinely used, under major renovation, vacant and secured,

10

vacant and unsecured, being demolished, other, or undetermined. There is no specific

classification to identify an abandoned building. There is no widely accepted standard way to

identify an abandoned building among NFIRS users. Fires in abandoned buildings are most often

classified by reporting officers in Flint as vacant and secured or vacant and unsecured.

that has an owner

but no permanent occupants, with reasonable efforts being made to preserve its value and

legal occupants and is negle

Flint, 2007).

abandoned buildings. Abandoned buildings are the prime focus of this study. However, there is

no certain way to know if a property was actually vacant or abandoned under the 2007 policy

Literature Review

Firefighting and Abandoned Buildings

well known to firefighters across the United States and the world. Brannigan wrote his treatise on

building construction to warn firefighters of the danger of structural collapse. First published in

1971, his work emphasized a thorough knowledge of building design and construction in order to

improve firefighter safety. Today, his lesson can be applied to a scourge of unsafe structures

11

plaguing communities: the abandoned building. A byproduct of economic downturn, population

loss, collapse of the housing market and other factors, abandoned buildings present a unique

challenge to firefighters.

Dunn writes that the abandoned building presents more significant hazards to firefighters

than occupied buildings. He warns that complacency among firefighters in their approach to

abandoned building fires can have deadly consequences. Dunn argues that firefighters have not

sufficiently recognized that abandoned buildings are a specific hazard. A retired New York City

Successful risk management requires identifying workplace hazards as a first step. Dunn

points out that abandoned buildings are frequently the site of multiple fire incidents. With each

Ahrens (2009) surveyed vacant and abandoned building fires occurring nationally

between 2002 and 2006. He found that 4,500 firefighters suffered injuries at vacant and

abandoned buildings during the period. Nationally, vacant and abandoned buildings represented

6% of total structure fires, yet caused 13% of total firefighter injuries, and 15 firefighters were

fatally injured. Ahrens also found that 57% of fires in unsecured vacant and abandoned buildings

were intentionally set.

Abandoned buildings are subject to decay, may not comply with building codes, and are

to rapid fire spread into load-bearing components. Ahrens recommends that fire departments

partner with local housing organizations to help identify abandoned properties.

12

Karter (2012) studied firefighter injuries occurring nationally between 2005 and 2009.

Karter utilized NFIRS data that is the same format as utilized by this researcher. He identified

33,950 firefighter injuries during that period; 27,170 of these injuries, 81%, occurred at

properties that were occupied, and 4,635 injuries, 13%, occurred at vacant properties. Karter and

Ahrens found a national injury rate that is consistent between two separate studies.

Norman writes that the most dangerous building for firefighting is the vacant or

abandoned building. He states that the rate of firefighter fatality is five times higher for vacant

and abandoned buildings than occupied buildings.

Norman mentions that the Fire Department of New York City changed its policy towards

381).

The life hazard at a vacant or abandoned building fire is almost always exclusively to the

firefighters called to respond to it. Norman laments that the lesson of vacant and abandoned

son

has only been learned locally, for it is still common in some areas for casualties to occur in

buildings that are in such poor condition that they were barely standing prior to the fire and

p. 11).

The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) issues standards for many facets of

firefighting. NFPA 1500 addresses firefighter occupational safety and health. It was the first

standard to directly address risk management for firefighters operating at building fires. NFPA

1500 applies to all buildings, whether occupied, vacant, or abandoned. The standard recommends

that all fire departments utilize the following rules of engagement:

13

1. What is the survival profile of any victims in the involved compartment?

2. We will not risk our lives at all for a building or lives that are already lost.

3. We may only risk our lives a little, in a calculated manner, to save savable

property.

4. We may risk our lives a lot, in a calculated manner, to save savable lives

(NFPA, 2002).

The standard suggests that when there is no savable life or property involved, the

implementation of defensive strategies is the appropriate choice. At fires in vacant and

abandoned buildings, the chance of firefighters encountering a savable life or savable property is

minimal.

Rule discusses a particularly tragic fire that occurred in Worcester, Massachusetts in

1999. In this incident, firefighters responded to a fire in an abandoned cold storage warehouse.

Firefighters received reports that two homeless people may have still been in the building. Six

firefighters were killed as a result of searching for the homeless persons.

The homeless persons were later found safely away from the building and were charged

with arson. Rule states that the conditions in Worcester at this fire are a nationwide phenomenon.

from vacant buildings unless they are renovated to co

and abandoned buildings pose a direct threat to the safety of firefighters. Rule argues that fire

departments must manage that risk by having plans and policies in place to address vacant and

abandoned buildings.

Jones (2001) advocates fire prevention as the best practice for reducing vacant and

abandoned building fires. Communities should seek to properly secure access to abandoned

buildings. Locking or boarding up entryways prevents trespassing and the potential for arson.

Once secured, a community should focus on rehabilitation of viable properties and demolition of

properties that are not salvageable.

14

Jones suggests that fire companies keep a list of abandoned properties that are located

within their response districts. Abandoned buildings should be clearly marked with an

abandoned building is safe for firefighters to enter.

refighting operations can be conducted

operations can be conducted with extreme caution. Jones echoes Dunn and Norman, stating

he most important concept that firefighters and command officers must understand when

responding to fires involving vacant and abandoned buildings is that the buildings themselves are

inherently dangerous

Graves studied firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned buildings in Flint, Michigan.

Examining a one-year period of fires, Graves found that vacant and abandoned buildings

accounted for 40% of fire call volume. Vacant and abandoned buildings were the source of 62%

of total firefighter injuries in Flint, far exceeding the 13% finding of Ahrens and the 14% finding

found by Karter in a national study of data from 2005 through 2009. Ahrens also found a

national average of 6% vacant and abandoned building fire volume in a national study examining

data between 2003 through 2006.

Vacant and abandoned building fires in Flint resulted in 3,112 hours lost due to

firefighter injury in the timeframe of the 2007 Graves study. In contrast, occupied buildings

resulted in 768 hours lost due to firefighter injury. Exposing firefighters to the risk of vacant and

abandoned buildings did not yield a significant preservation of property. During the period

surveyed, firefighters made 136 offensive attacks (See Glossary, Appendix A) at vacant and

15

abandoned building fires. All but five of those properties were still abandoned or had been

demolished at the time of the study.

Graves advocates that firefighters utilize risk management procedures published in

National Fire Protection Association industry standards. Fires in vacant and abandoned

properties must be treated differently than fires in occupied buildings. He argues that fires in

that is waiting to injure and

The Effect of Abandoned Properties on a Community

Communities experiencing growth in abandoned properties follow a consistent pattern

that has been identified in the literature. As people move out of a community, their former homes

are left behind. A transition occurs from an owner-based occupancy to a renter-based occupancy.

As a neighborhood continues to deteriorate, rent amounts that can be demanded by landlords

decrease. Valuable properties are acquired and lower valued properties end up abandoned.

.

302). A house that has no owner falls into disrepair. Mortgage obligations are left unmet,

resulting in default or foreclosure. Property tax obligations are not paid, also leading to a loss of

ownership. Abandoned buildings represent a net loss to a community. They present a need for

services from police, fire, and code enforcement departments while providing little or no revenue

to the community via taxes.

Griswold and Norris (2007) published a study on the effect of vacant buildings on the

property values of neighboring houses in Flint, Michigan. The automotive industry and post-

16

World War Two economy propelled Flint to become one of the most prosperous cities in the

ation

eroded from a high of nearly 200,000 in 1960 to just over 100,000 today.

The Genesee County Land Bank (GCLB) began a program of acquiring abandoned

housing property in 2002. The GCLB obtains title to properties via auction. Viable properties are

rehabilitated and returned to the property tax base. Dilapidated properties are demolished.

Griswold and Norris They

found that an abandoned property has a negative effect on any other property located within

1,500 feet. During the 2002 2005 period of study, the GCLB demolished 434 houses which had

a 1,500 foot field of effect on 26,197 other properties. The GCLB spent $3.5 million on

demolition efforts. Griswold regression stud

program increased property values on 26,197 affected properties by a total of $112,528,793. The

demolished.

Rule (2000) also found a connection between the local tax base and abandoned buildings.

Vacant buildings represent a minimal tax revenue base and demolition should not be delayed by

the perception that the tax base will erode. Instead, he argues that the land is more valuable for

economic development if it's vacant than if a dilapidated structure sits there

The City of Flint has an active demolition program. Inspectors visit vacant and

abandoned buildings in response to citizen complaints. Inspectors are also notified by the Fire

17

to repair exceeds the current market value of a structure, the decision is made to proceed with

Zook examined abandoned properties and their effect on East Cleveland, Ohio. He argues

This hazard must be reduced, if

reduce the tax base. Local government revenues are affected by a diminishing tax base, straining

the ability to provide government services.

The property tax base of East Cleveland decreased 24% between 2000 and 2008 as the

city suffered population loss and property abandonment. Income taxes fell 36% during the same

juries occurred during

operations at vacant building fires.

Ley (2010) studied vacant building fires in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. He mentioned that a

spike in arson rates typically follows a wave of foreclosures. Milwaukee, like numerous cities,

has suffered from the current and ongoing foreclosure crisis. Milwaukee has had a series of

policies developed to address vacant buildings. The first policy, implemented in 1967, focused

on elimination of blighted buildings.

A 1989 policy focused on boarding up unsecured abandoned buildings. Ordinances were

adopted in 2001 to tighten restrictions on vacant and abandoned buildings. Milwaukee has seen a

progressive decrease in frequency of abandoned building fires. Peaking at 758 incidents in 1968,

vacant building fires dropped below 100 for the first time in 2002.

Hollander (2008) studied land use changes associated with population loss in Flint,

Michigan. He argues that population loss is a widespread problem for major cities. Shrinking of

cities is an alternative strategy Hollander examines.

18

Through calculation of housing unit density in three Flint neighborhoods, Hollander

found that individual neighborhoods react to population loss differently. Hollander suggests that

census data, updated every ten years, is not sufficient to measure population changes that happen

on a much faster scale. Hollander ties population loss to neighborhood stability.

Neighborhoods that do not downsize in accordance with population loss see a rise in

number of abandoned buildings. The

2010, p. 137). Demand for housing in deteriorating neighborhoods falls to the point that many

homeowners simply abandon their properties. In addition to becoming havens for crime,

abandoned buildings become targets for arson.

Two of the three neighborhoods Hollander studied reacted to population loss by changing

from high-density to low-density neighborhoods. Dilapidated housing stock was removed. Land

formerly occupied by dilapidated housing was acquired by neighboring property owners to

expand their individual lots. Block clubs and community groups also acquired empty land to use

for gardens and parks. These two neighborhoods experienced lower crime rates and higher levels

of community involvement.

The third neighborhood examined did not react quickly to population loss. It remains

high-density, unstable, and with a prevalence of abandoned houses. High crime rates and a

prevalence of landlord-

housing density in concurrence with population loss led to more stable, safer, and more

satisfactory neighborhoods.

Hirokawa and Gonzales (2010) assessed methods used by cities to regulate vacant

property. The study analyzed cities that had identified a correlation between vacant property and

19

the onset of blight. They argue that the public cost of vacant property is persistent and

unaffordable. City policies and ordinances are a means of controlling the public cost of vacant

property.

A primary aim of many vacant building ordinances is to identify and track vacant

property. A property owner is required by these ordinances to register the vacant property with

their local government. A registration fee is paid, with funds assisting in paying for inspection

and code enforcement.

Ordinances require property owners to maintain vacant buildings or face fines and

penalties. Some ordinances require the property owner to carry general liability insurance on the

vacant property. Ordinances on vacant buildings are a strikes an appropriate

balance between the rights of property owners and t

and Gonzales, 2010, p 637).

Summary

Vacant and abandoned buildings are a significant problem to fire departments and

communities across the country. The value of an abandoned building within its community has

changed. An abandoned building formerly represented a potentially repairable structure. The

downturn in the housing market and depopulation trends in urban centers has caused abandoned

buildings to now primarily represent a drain on tight budget resources and danger to firefighters.

Abandoned buildings are havens for crime and reduce property values of neighboring occupied

properties.

Fire departments, either individually or as a whole in the fire service, should proactively

address abandoned buildings within their community. Risk management procedures are

20

advocated for fire operations at abandoned buildings throughout the literature. Systems to

identify and mark abandoned buildings with visible warnings to firefighters have been

implemented in some communities. The NFPA has created national standards for operations at

abandoned buildings. Local fire departments are encouraged to adopt these standards to improve

fireground efficiency and firefighter safety.

Communities can enhance their neighborhoods by proactively and aggressively

responding to abandoned buildings. Griswold and Norris found dramatic improvements in

property values in Flint, Michigan after blighted, abandoned buildings were demolished. There is

an agreement in the literature that abandoned buildings reduce the property tax base. Ordinances

and policies to track abandoned homes are effective. Hollander identified that prompt

community reaction to depopulation can prevent blight during the transition from high-density

housing to low-density housing. Demolition of abandoned housing stock should be conducted to

improve property values, reduce blight, reduce crime and arson, and enhance the quality of life in

urban neighborhoods.

Methodology and Research Design

Introduction

This study examines firefighter injury rates and frequency at vacant and abandoned

building fires before and after implementation of the vacant and abandoned building policy. The

Department began implementation of its vacant and abandoned building policy on August 28,

2007. The study examines a 10-year period of structure fires from August 27, 2002 through

August 27, 2012.

21

A limitation of this study is that it is a case study. The study examines a limited

population within one fire department. Fire departments in urban environments are similar. The

results of the study, while sampling a limited population, may be generalized to the broader

population of other urban fire departments.

Research Design

This project utilizes a pre-test / post-test group research model design. This research

model was the best option for this project based on available data. The research examines two

population groups.

The pre-test group, Group A, existed chronologically before the post-test group, Group B.

There is a relationship existing between Group A and Group B. Both groups are samples of the

same population performing during separate time periods. Group A and Group B are

interdependent and could not exist without each other. Data from both groups were easily and

reasonably measurable. Group B was subjected to a treatment, in this case, the 2007 risk

management policy.

The population of the study is firefighters working for the City of Flint Fire Department.

The study surveys structure fires and firefighter injuries occurring between August 27, 2002 and

August 27, 2012. The pre-test group, Group A, is structure fires and firefighter injuries occurring

between August 27, 2002 and August 27, 2007. The post-test group, Group B, is structure fires

and firefighter injuries occurring between August 28, 2007 and August 27, 2012. The study

examines what happened to the groups before and after the treatment.

22

There is a research theory existing between the two groups that the treatment policy

caused measurable changes. The model theory in this case is that there is a measurable change in

injuries between the two groups. The relationship between the groups has been controlled for all

other foreseeable factors.

Data Collection and Analysis

For this study, data were collected from the City's New World Systems AEGIS Fire

Records software. Upon conclusion of a structure fire incident, the reporting officer enters data

about the fire incident into the records system. The data were reviewed and compiled into an

Excel database. Data were recorded into Excel about the following subject areas:

The date of the incident

The time the incident occurred

The internal Department run number for the incident

The street address or intersection of the incident

Whether the affected structure was vacant or occupied

What firefighting strategy and tactics were utilized at the incident:

An offensive fire attack at a vacant building

A defensive fire operation at a vacant building

A transitional fire operation at a vacant building

An incipient stage fire at a vacant building

Fire affecting only the exterior of a vacant building

Fire occurred at an occupied building

Whether the incident occurred before or after the 2007 policy

23

Whether a firefighter injury occurred during the incident

The number of firefighter(s) injured during the incident

The rank of the injured firefighter(s)

The hourly pay rate of the injured firefighter(s)

Injury data were collected from the City's Employee Health Clinic. The Clinic records

data about firefighter injuries on the MI-OSHA 300 Log of Work-Related Injuries and Illnesses

Form. Data were recorded from these forms into Excel in the following areas:

The type of injury suffered by the firefighter(s)

The number of 8-hour days the firefighter was on complete work restriction and

unable to work

The number of 8-hour days the firefighter was on a light duty work assignment

The total cost of complete work restriction time

The total cost of light duty work assignment time

The combined total cost of complete work restriction and light duty time

The cost of injuries was calculated by multiplying the affected employee's hourly pay rate

by the total number of hours on work restriction or light duty. Injuries were separated into one of

fifteen different categories depending on the nature of the injury.

The City's property tax website (http://cityofflint.com/propertytaxes/search.asp) was

reviewed between August 29, 2012 and September 4, 2012. The City lists the current status of

properties on this website. For each property classified as vacant by the reporting officer, the

property tax records were reviewed. The status of the property was entered into Excel as follows:

The affected property has been demolished

The affected property is currently on the City's Demolition List

24

The affected property is posted as not inhabitable until repaired to code

The affected property still contains an improved structure

The property status review comprised 2,095 separate properties; 213 properties were

listed as improved. To determine the status of improved properties, site visits were conducted at

each of the 213 improved properties between August 29, 2012 and September 4, 2012. The

properties were visually inspected from the street or sidewalk. Properties listed as 'improved' in

the database were re-categorized in Excel as follows after site visits:

The affected property is currently occupied by residents

The affected property is currently vacant and reasonably maintained

The affected property is currently abandoned and dilapidated

During site visits, assumptions were made to determine if the property was vacant or

abandoned. Properties that showed any reasonable sign of recently being cared for were listed as

vacant. Properties that were found unsecured, boarded up, lacking energy utility connections, or

in a visible state of dilapidated disrepair were listed as abandoned.

Within the Excel database are 2,578 fire incidents at 2,095 separate vacant or abandoned

properties. Many properties were the site of multiple responses.

One example of multiple responses is 1921 Burns. Firefighters responded to this

abandoned building for fire incidents on fifteen separate occasions. This structure has been

demolished. Within the property status section of the database, 1921 Burns is recorded as

demolished only once so as not to skew final statistics on property status.

Each building that received multiple responses was classified to show a property status

once. Other property status entries for that property were left blank. An exception to this

procedure is occupied houses that burned once, were subsequently vacated, and then burned

25

again as a vacant structure. Those were classified once as an occupied structure and once as a

vacant structure. Multiple occupancy structures like apartment buildings and trailer parks were

classified individually for each incident.

A limitation of the property review is that the status of properties is dynamic and can

change. The property status listed in the database is a snapshot of time reflecting data collected

between August 29, 2012 and September 4, 2012. Structures listed for demolition will eventually

be demolished. Structures listed as posted may be either repaired and reoccupied or demolished.

Properties that have had structures demolished may at some time in the future have a new

structure built upon them. The property status information is intended to illustrate what happened

to a vacant or abandoned property within the 10-year timeframe of the study.

The Excel database was converted for use with SPSS. Alphabetical data was reclassified

as numerical data. Variables were added to represent all data over the ten-year period. Separate

variables were added to split the total data into pre-policy and post-policy sections. A variety of

statistical analyses were conducted on the data.

Findings - Excel Analysis

Structure Fire Volume and Firefighting Tactics

Analysis of the data in Excel shows distinctive changes between the pre-policy and post-

policy periods. The City of Flint Fire Department responded to 5,233 working fires during the

10-year survey period. 2,578 working fires occurred in vacant or abandoned buildings; 2,655

working fires occurred in occupied buildings. There was a marked increase in vacant and

abandoned building fires in the post-policy period; 1,623 vacant and abandoned building fires

occurred in the post-policy period compared to 955 in the pre-policy period, a 70% increase.

26

Vacant and abandoned building fires represented 41% of total structure fires in the pre-

policy period. Vacant and abandoned building fires increased to 56% of total structure fires in

the post-policy period. Vacant and abandoned building fires at their lowest annual frequency

represented 35% of total structure fires in 2003. Vacant and abandoned building fires at their

highest annual frequency represented 63% of total structure fires in 2010. The following chart

depicts vacant, abandoned, and occupied building fires during the survey period.

Firefighting tactics utilized at vacant and abandoned buildings changed in the post-policy

period. Offensive attacks at vacant and abandoned buildings decreased from 68% to 45%.

Defensive operations increased from 15% to 30%. Transitional operations (See Glossary,

Appendix A) increased from 3% to 10%. Structure fires at which incipient or exterior fire

conditions were found were essentially unchanged between pre- and post-policy periods. The

charts below illustrate the change in firefighting tactics at vacant building fires before and after

the policy.

0

100

200

300

400

500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Vacant / Abandoned and Occupied Building Fires, 2002 - 2012

Vacant / Abandoned Occupied

27

Offensive attacks have decreased from being the primary strategy of choice. An

examination of tactics over the 10-year study period shows a steady change in firefighting

strategy. In 2003, offensive attacks were used 77% of the time at vacant and abandoned building

fires. By 2012, offensive attacks decreased to 33% at vacant and abandoned building fires. The

68%15%

10%4%

3%

Pre-Policy Tactics at Vacant and Abandoned Building Fires

Offensive Defensive Incipient Exterior Transitional

45%

30%

10%

5%10%

Post-Policy Tactics at Vacant and Abandoned Building Fires

Offensive Defensive Incipient Exterior Transitional

28

year 2012 was the first in which defensive strategies were the most frequently used strategy at

vacant and abandoned buildings. The following charts illustrate the changes in firefighting

tactics over the 10-year survey period.

Percentage of Offensive Attacks at

Vacant and Abandoned Buildings 2002 - 2012

52%

77% 77%

63%67%

60% 57%

48% 46%38%

33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Percentage of Defensive Operations at

Vacant and Abandoned Building Fires 2002 - 2012

21%

13%

8%

13%

19% 20%23%

26%

31% 30%

37%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

29

Civilia n Life Safety and Preservation of Property

The two primary goals of firefighting are saving lives and preserving property. A review

of fire records finds that the chances of a civilian being injured or killed during a vacant or

abandoned building fire in Flint are exceedingly minimal.

In the survey period, there were 2,578 working fires at vacant and abandoned buildings.

There were four documented records of a civilian injury or fatality at a vacant or abandoned

building fire during the ten years studied. These four cases represent 0.16% of all vacant and

abandoned building fires. At the remaining 99.84% of vacant and abandoned building fires

occurring in the study period, the life hazard risk is exclusively to the firefighters that respond.

Firefighters responded to 2,578 separate fire incidents at 2,095 vacant or abandoned

properties. A review of City property tax records and site visits to these properties found that:

1,352 properties have been demolished (64.5%)

412 properties are currently on the active City demolition list (19.7%)

118 properties are posted as uninhabitable until brought up to code (5.6%)

77 properties were found in a dilapidated, abandoned condition (3.7%)

113 properties were found in a reasonably maintained vacant condition (5.4%)

23 properties were found to be occupied (1.1%)

The following chart depicts the status of a vacant or abandoned property experiencing a

fire during the study period.

30

Fires in vacant or abandoned buildings represent a minimal chance of preserving a viable

property. During the study period, 93.5% of vacant buildings suffering a fire incident were not

repaired or rehabilitated.

The findings of this study emphasize that fire command officers should utilize NFPA

1500 recommendations on risk versus reward when committing firefighters to interior operations

at abandoned buildings. Over the 10-year period of this study, an abandoned building fire

represented a 0.16% chance of a civilian involvement and a 6.5% chance of a property being

preserved.

Firefighter Injur ies at Vacant and Abandoned Building Fires

During the 10-year survey period, a total of 155 firefighters suffered injuries at vacant or

abandoned building fires. The number of firefighter injuries was nearly evenly split before and

after the policy; 76 injuries occurred in the pre-policy period, and 79 injuries occurred in the

post-policy period. At first glance, this would appear to indicate that the policy was not effective

1352

412

118 77 113 23

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Demolished Demolition List

Posted Abandoned Vacant Occupied

Post-Fire Property Status 2002 - 2012

31

in reducing firefighter injuries. A closer examination reveals that there has been a notable change

in the frequency and severity of firefighter injuries

The National Fire Protection Association reports that the national average for firefighter

injuries is 3.7 per 100 vacant building fires. In Flint, the rate of injury during the survey period is

represented in the following chart.

Rate of Firefighter Injury per 100 Vacant and

Abandoned Building Fires

3.6

6

10.5

7.5

9.6

6.4

7.8

5.6

44.5 4.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

There has been a decrease in the rate of firefighter injuries. With the exception of the 4-

month portion of 2002 within the survey, the lowest rates of injury were encountered in the post-

policy period. During policy implementation, there was some initial resistance to increasing

defensive operations by some firefighters and command officers. Over time, the acceptance of

the change to defensive measures being the best tactical option has been successful. As

evidenced in the above chart, injury rates remained high through 2008 and then have shown a

stable pattern of reduction.

It should be noted that while the number of injuries remained consistent in the pre- and

post-policy periods, the number of vacant and abandoned building fires did not. There were 76

injuries at 955 vacant and abandoned building fires before the policy, an injury rate of 8.0 per

32

100 vacant and abandoned building fires. There were 79 injuries at 1,623 vacant and abandoned

building fires after the policy, an injury rate of 4.9 per 100 vacant and abandoned building fires.

Complete Work Restriction and Light Duty Restriction

Firefighter injuries result in two types of injury-related time off duty. The two types are

complete work restriction and light duty restriction.

Firefighters on complete work restriction are not able to work in any form. Firefighters

on light duty restriction may work in a reduced capacity but may not engage in firefighting

activities. Light duty work restriction involves administrative or clerical assignments until the

injured firefighter has recovered completely and is restored to firefighting duties.

Employee Health Clinic -

Related Injuries and Illness forms were collected. The number of eight-hour days on complete

work restriction and light duty restriction is entered on the OSHA 300 form. The injured

urly salary was multiplied by the number of hours listed as being on complete or

light duty restriction. The results were tabulated for complete work restriction hours, light duty

restriction hours, and total hours for each injury.

In the 10-year survey period, 155 firefighter injuries at vacant building fires resulted in a

cost of $374,272 for complete and light duty restriction hours. In the pre-policy period, 76

injuries cost a total of $236,905 for complete and light duty restriction. In the post-policy period,

79 injuries cost a total of $137,367 for complete and light duty restriction.

The average pre-policy cost of complete and light duty restriction was $3,117 per injury.

The average post-policy cost of complete and light duty restriction was $1,739 per injury. The

33

post-policy period saw a reduction of $1,379 in the average total cost per injury. The following

chart depicts pre-policy and post-policy total costs.

The City incurred a total cost of $235,301 for light duty restriction hours. In the pre-

policy period, light duty restriction cost a total of $121,482 or $1,598 per injury. In the post-

policy period, light duty restriction cost a total of $113,819 or $1,441 per injury. The post-policy

period saw a reduction of $157 in the average cost of light duty restriction per injury. The chart

below depicts pre-policy and post-policy light duty costs.

64%

36%

Total Cost of Injury-Related Work Restriction

Pre-Policy Post-Policy

34

The City incurred a total cost of $138,971 for complete work restriction hours. In the pre-

policy period, complete work restriction cost a total of $115,423 or $1,519 per injury. In the

post-policy period, complete work restriction cost a total of $23,548 or $298 per injury. The

post-policy period saw a reduction in the cost of complete work restriction of $91,875. The

average cost of complete work restriction decreased by $1,221 in the post-policy period. The

chart below depicts pre-policy and post-policy complete work restriction costs.

52%

48%

Cost of Injury-Related Light Duty Restriction

Pre-Policy Post-Policy

84%

16%

Cost of Injury-Related Complete Work Restriction

Pre-Policy Post-Policy

35

Injuries in the post-policy period were less frequent and less severe than in the pre-policy

period. The drastic reduction in the cost of complete work restriction time while structure fire

volume dramatically increased illustrates the effectiveness of the policy.

Firefighter injuries were classified into 15 measurable categories, including abdominal

strains, back strains, burns, cardiac conditions, contusions, debris in eye, dental injuries, electric

shock, extremity strains, fractures, heat exhaustion, lacerations, multiple injuries, puncture

wounds, and smoke inhalation.

The following table details pre-policy and post-policy injuries and costs by injury

category. In each paired column, green indicates the lower cost or value. Yellow indicates no

change in cost or value, while red indicates a higher cost or value.

36

Injury

Type

Number,

Pre-

Policy

Number,

Post-

Policy

Average

Cost,

Pre-

Policy

Average

Cost,

Post-

Policy

Total

Cost,

Pre-

Policy

Total

Cost,

Post-

Policy Abdominal

Strain 5 0 $710 $0 $3,550 $0

Back Strain 6 7 $3,400 $1,221 $20,400 $8,546

Burn 24 10 $2,272 $656 $54,533 $6,564

Cardiac 0 1 $0 $2,608 $0 $2,608

Contusion 7 7 $45 $941 $318 $6,592

Debris In

Eye 1 3 $217 $145 $217 $435

Dental 0 1 $0 $994 $0 $994

Electric

Shock 2 1 $0 $0 $0 $0

Extremity

Strain 19 27 $5,845 $3,273 $111,058 $88,377

Fracture 0 1 $0 $1,988 $0 $1,988

Heat

Exhaustion 2 6 $79 $26 $159 $159

Laceration 1 8 $797 $177 $797 $1,420

Multiple 6 3 $7,380 $5,740 $44,280 $17,219

Puncture 3 2 $0 $0 $0 $0

Smoke

Inhalation 1 2 $1,593 $1,231 $1,593 $2,462

Totals 76 79 $3,071 $1,739 $236,905 $137,367

37

The average cost per injury decreased in nine categories. There was no change in average

cost per injury in two categories, and there was an increase in average cost per injury in four

categories. The four categories that showed increases were cardiac conditions, contusions, dental

injuries, and fractures. There was a total of one cardiac condition, one dental injury, and one

fracture in the post-policy period. There were no cardiac conditions, dental injuries, or fractures

in the pre-policy period. The rarity of and singular occurrences of cardiac conditions, dental

injuries, and fractures suggests that they are likely statistical outliers.

The only category of injury that has notably increased in post-policy cost is contusions.

There were fourteen total contusions in the survey period. Seven contusions occurred before the

policy and seven occurred after the policy. In the post-policy period, three contusions resulted in

no time lost due to injury. Of the $6,592 in contusion total costs, $5,709 (86%) of the total was

caused by two separate contusion injuries.

Burn Injuries

Given the nature of firefighting, firefighter burn injuries are worthy of specific attention.

Thirty-four burn injuries occurred in the survey period, and 24 burn injuries (71%) occurred in

the pre-policy period. In the pre-policy period, 24 burns resulted in 168 days lost on complete

work restriction. Pre-policy burns resulted in 171 days lost on light duty restriction.

Every burn in the pre-policy period caused some form of injury-related time off. Burn

costs in the pre-policy period were $54,533; $29,193 for complete work restriction and $25,340

for light duty restriction. The average burn in the pre-policy period resulted in 7 days on

complete work restriction at a cost of $1,216. The average burn in the pre-policy period resulted

38

in 7.125 days on light duty restriction at a cost of $1,056. In the pre-policy period, there were

two instances in which more than one firefighter was burned at the same incident.

In the post-policy period, burn injuries have sharply decreased. Just 10 burns occurred in

the post-policy period. The total cost of time lost to burn injuries was drastically reduced in the

post-policy period. In the post-policy period, 10 burns resulted in nine days lost on complete

work restriction. Post-policy burns resulted in 32 days lost due to light duty restriction. One of

these burn injuries resulted in 8 days on complete work restriction and 9 days on light duty

restriction. Three post-policy burn injuries resulted in zero time lost to complete or light duty

restriction.

Burn costs in the post-policy period totaled $6,564. Post-policy burns resulted in costs of

$1,434 for complete work restriction and $5,130 for light duty restriction. The average burn in

the post-policy period resulted 0.9 days of complete work restriction at a cost of $143. The

average post-policy burn resulted in 3.2 days of light duty restriction at a cost of $513. There

were no instances of multiple firefighters being burned at the same incident during the post-

policy period. The cost of complete work restriction, cost of light duty restriction, and total costs

for burn injuries is depicted in the following three charts.

39

Cost of Burn-Related Complete Work Restriction

95%

5%

Pre-Policy Post-Policy

Cost of Burn-Related Light Duty Restriction

83%

17%

Pre-Policy Post-Policy

40

Total Cost of Burn-Related Work Restriction

89%

11%

Pre-Policy Post-Policy

The cost of burn injuries decreased by a total of $47,969 in the post-policy period. A

firefighter suffering a burn in the post-policy period spent 6.1 fewer days on complete work

restriction and 3.925 fewer days on light duty restriction average. The cost of complete work

restriction decreased by $1,073 per burn injury, on average. The cost of light duty restriction

decreased by $542 per burn injury, on average. The most severe pre-policy burn resulted in a

cost of $12,109 for complete and light duty restrictions. The most severe post-policy burn

resulted in a cost of $2,709 for complete and light duty restrictions.

Burn injuries decreased as firefighters adjusted to using defensive and transitional

operations at vacant and abandoned buildings. Prior to the policy, all structures received

offensive attacks whether occupied, vacant, or abandoned. The only exceptions to this method

were fully involved vacant and abandoned buildings, or buildings with obviously hazardous

structural instability. Firefighters were repeatedly exposed to avoidable risks during offensive

attacks that resulted in more frequent and more serious burns in the pre-policy period.

41

Offensive attacks present the highest level of risk of injury for firefighters. The policy

directs firefighters to only use offensive attacks for minimal to moderate fire conditions, or if

there is a confirmed civilian life in jeopardy at a vacant or abandoned building. Offensive attacks

decreased at vacant and abandoned buildings from 648 (68%) pre-policy to 721 (45%) post-

policy. The frequency of burn injury dropped from 1 in 40 vacant and abandoned building fires

pre-policy to 1 in 161 vacant and abandoned building fires post-policy.

Projected Injuries

For this section, pre-policy injuries and costs have been projected into the post-policy

period. Based on the actual pre-policy rates and severity of injuries, this model estimates what

likely would have happened if the risk management policy had never been implemented. In this

model, an assumption was made that injury rates and costs remained constant and unchanged for

each injury category in the post-policy period.

For each injury category, a pre-policy injury rate was calculated. The pre-policy injury

rate was then projected into post-policy data. The result was an estimated rate of injury for each

category in the post-policy period. The actual average cost of pre-policy injuries was then

multiplied by the estimated rate of injury for each category. The total of actual average costs

multiplied by the estimated rate of post-policy injuries was used to extrapolate an estimated

projection of injuries and costs had the 2007 risk management policy never occurred.

The following table details projected post-policy injuries and costs by injury category

under this model. In each paired column, green indicates the lower cost or value. Yellow

indicates no change in cost or value, while red indicates the higher cost or value.

42

Injury

Type

Actual

Number,

Post-

Policy

Projected

Number,

Post-

Policy

Actual

Total

Cost,

Pre-

Policy

Projected

Total Cost,

Post-

Policy

Actual

Total

Cost,

Post-

Policy

Projected

Cost

Savings,

Post-

Policy Abdominal

Strain 0 8.4 $3,500 $5,976 $0 $5,976

Back Strain 7 10.1 $20,400 $34,342 $8,546 $25,796

Burn 10 40.4 $54,533 $91,795 $6,564 $85,231

Cardiac 1 1 $2,608 $2,608 $2,608 $0

Contusion 7 11.8 $319 $542 $6,592 $6,050

Debris In

Eye 3 1.7 $217 $365 $434 $69

Dental 1 1 $994 $994 $994 $0

Electric

Shock 1 3.4 $0 $0 $0 $0

Extremity

Strain 27 32 $111,058 $186,954 $88,377 $98,577

Fracture 1 1 $1,988 $1,988 $1,988 $0

Heat

Exhaustion 6 3.4 $159 $269 $159 $110

Laceration 8 1.7 $797 $1,342 $1,420 $78

Multiple 3 10.1 $44,280 $74,543 $17,219 $57,234

Puncture 2 5.1 $0 $0 $0 $0

Smoke

Inhalation 2 1.7 $1,593 $2,682 $2,463 $219

Totals 79 129.6 $236,905 $404,400 $137,367 $267,033

43

Findings - SPSS Analysis

Introduction

The Excel database used in this study was converted for use with SPSS. Excel fields were

re-classified as needed to convert alphabetical data into numerical data. Fields converted to

numerical data included property status, if property was vacant or abandoned, firefighting tactics,

the pre-policy and post-policy period, injury type, and the rank of injured firefighter.

The SPSS database first lists all categories chronologically over the 10-year study period.

The database then split all categories into pre-policy and post-policy sections. SPSS was then

used to find frequencies, descriptives, and test for statistical relationships within the data.

Vacant and Abandoned Building Fires

Structure fires were categorized as abandoned in SPSS using 1 to indicate the property

was vacant or abandoned and 0 to indicate the property was occupied. The mean of the pre-

policy vacant and abandoned category was .41 for 2329 fire incidents. The mean of the post-

policy vacant and abandoned category was .56 for 2904 fire incidents. Vacant and abandoned

building fires increased in the post-policy period.

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation

PreVacant 2329 0 1 .41 .492

PostVacant 2904 0 1 .56 .497

Valid N (listwise) 2329

A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare the frequency of abandoned building

fires in the pre-policy and post-policy period. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-

44

tailed) value of .000, indicating a statistically significant difference between the pre-policy

period and the post-policy period.

Paired Samples Test

Paired Differences t df Sig. (2-

tailed) Mean Std.

Deviation

Std. Error

Mean

95% Confidence

Interval of the

Difference

Lower Upper

Pair 1 PreVacant -

PostVacant -.138 .694 .014 -.166 -.110 -9.586 2328 .000

Firefighter Injuries

In the pre-policy period, there were 67 vacant or abandoned building fire incidents that

resulted in firefighter injury. A total of 76 firefighters were injured, and 62 incidents injured a

single firefighter. Two separate incidents injured two firefighters each. Two separate incidents

injured three firefighters each. One incident resulted in four firefighter injuries. The mean of pre-

policy injuries is .03.

In the post-policy period, there were 78 vacant or abandoned building fire incidents that

resulted in firefighter injury. A total of 79 firefighters were injured, and 77 incidents injured a

single firefighter. One incident injured two firefighters. There were no occasions of more than

two firefighters being injured at a single incident in the post-policy period. The mean of post-

policy injuries is the same value as pre-policy injuries, .03.

A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy injuries.

The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .429, indicating no statistically

significant difference between the pre-policy and post-policy number of injuries.

45

Firefighting Tactics and Firefighter Injuries

A crosstab was conducted using pre-policy firefighting tactics and pre-policy types of

injury. The hypothesis for this crosstab is that a relationship exists between the policy change in

firefighting tactics and types of injury. A change in firefighting tactics should produce a

corresponding change in firefighter injuries. The crosstab resulted in an Asymp. Sig. value of

.013, indicating that a statistical relationship exists between the variables. The Phi value was

ue

was .516, indicating a medium strength of relationship. The null hypothesis is rejected.

Chi-Square Tests

Value df Asymp. Sig. (2-sided)

Pearson Chi-Square 53.593a 33 .013

Likelihood Ratio 25.626 33 .816

Linear-by-Linear Association 2.893 1 .089

N of Valid Cases 67

a. 45 cells (93.8%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected

count is .01.

Symmetric Measures

Value Approx. Sig.

Nominal by Nominal Phi .894 .013

Cramer's V .516 .013

N of Valid Cases 67

a. Not assuming the null hypothesis.

b. Using the asymptotic standard error assuming the null hypothesis.

A crosstab was conducted using post-policy firefighting tactics and post-policy types of

injury. The hypothesis for this crosstab is that a relationship exists between the policy change

and post-policy tactics and injury. The crosstab resulted in an Asymp. Sig. value of .977,

indicating no statistical relationship exists between the variables. The null hypothesis is accepted.

Crosstab analysis of tactics and types of injuries has shown a statistical relationship only

between pre-policy variables that were tested. Post-policy variables that were tested did not show

46

a statistical relationship. Based on the results of crosstab analysis, there is a very strong

probability that the change in injuries in response to a change in tactics is not coincidental. It is

reasonable to conclude that the policy change in firefighting tactics caused the resulting change

in injuries.

A crosstab was conducted using pre-policy tactics and pre-policy injury occurrences. The

hypothesis for this crosstab is that a relationship exists between the policy change and pre-policy

tactics and injury occurrences. The crosstab resulted in an Asymp. Sig. value of .000, indicating

that a statistical relation

was .231, indicating a low strength and direction of relationship. The null hypothesis is rejected.

Chi-Square Tests

Value df Asymp. Sig. (2-

sided)

Pearson Chi-Square 124.204a 5 .000

Likelihood Ratio 132.923 5 .000

Linear-by-Linear Association 118.858 1 .000

N of Valid Cases 2320

a. 4 cells (33.3%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum

expected count is .84.

Symmetric Measures

Value Approx. Sig.

Nominal by Nominal Phi .231 .000

Cramer's V .231 .000

N of Valid Cases 2320

a. Not assuming the null hypothesis.

b. Using the asymptotic standard error assuming the null hypothesis.

A crosstab was conducted using post-policy tactics and post-policy injury occurrences.

The hypothesis for this crosstab is that a relationship exists between the policy change and post-

policy tactics and injuries. The crosstab resulted in an Asymp. Sig. value of .000, indicating that

47

a statistical relationship exists between the variables

indicating a very low strength and direction of relationship. The null hypothesis is rejected.

Chi-Square Tests

Value df Asymp. Sig. (2-

sided)

Pearson Chi-Square 83.283a 5 .000

Likelihood Ratio 95.479 5 .000

Linear-by-Linear Association 69.073 1 .000

N of Valid Cases 2903

a. 3 cells (25.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum

expected count is 2.26.

Symmetric Measures

Value Approx. Sig.

Nominal by Nominal Phi .169 .000

Cramer's V .169 .000

N of Valid Cases 2903

a. Not assuming the null hypothesis.

b. Using the asymptotic standard error assuming the null hypothesis.

Pre-policy and post-policy tactics both showed a statistical relationship with occurrences

of injury. Pre-policy injury rates showed a slightly higher strength and direction of statistical

relationship.

Comparison of Complete Work Restriction Hours and Costs

As detailed in the Excel findings, a firefighter on complete work restriction is unable to

work due to injury. In the pre-policy period, firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned

buildings resulted in $121,170 in costs for complete work restriction hours. In the post-policy

period, firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned buildings resulted in $17,053 in costs for

complete work restriction hours. Post-policy injuries resulted in $104,117 lower costs for

48

complete work restriction hours. The mean of the cost of pre-policy complete work restriction

hours is $1,594. The mean of the cost of post-policy complete work restriction hours is $215.

There was a substantial decrease of $1,379 in the mean cost of complete work restriction hours

per post-policy injury.

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Sum Mean Std. Deviation

PreRestrictedCost 76 $0.00 $33,342.55 $121,170.16 $1,594.3442 $4,382.34220

PostRestrictedCost 79 $0.00 $3,823.87 $17,053.12 $215.8623 $613.26260

Valid N (listwise) 5

A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy complete

work restriction costs. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .003,

indicating a statistically significant difference between complete work restriction costs in the pre-

policy and post-policy period. The results of the paired samples T-test indicate a strong

probability that the difference in pre-policy and post-policy complete work restriction costs is not

coincidental.

Paired Samples Test

Paired Differences t df Sig. (2-

tailed) Mean Std.

Deviation

Std. Error

Mean

95% Confidence

Interval of the

Difference

Lower Upper

Pair

1

Pre-Policy: Cost of

Complete

Restriction Days -

Post-Policy:

Number of Days of

Complete Work

Restriction

52.23690 836.11282 17.32528 18.26232 86.21148 3.015 2328 .003

49

155 firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires resulted in 791 days of

complete work restriction time, and 653 restricted duty days resulted from injuries suffered in the

pre-policy period. There were 138 restricted duty days that resulted from injuries in the post-

policy period. The mean of pre-policy complete work restriction days is 9.12. The mean of post-

policy complete work restriction days is 1.75. A post-policy injury resulted in an average of 7.37

fewer days on complete work restriction.

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Sum Mean Std. Deviation

PreRestrictedDays 76 0 177 693 9.12 24.085

PostRestrictedDays 79 0 43 138 1.75 5.904

Valid N (listwise) 5

A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy complete work restriction

days and post-policy complete work restriction days. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig.

(2-sided) value of .015, indicating a statistically significant difference between pre-policy and

post-policy complete work restriction days. The results of the paired samples T-test indicate a

very strong probability that the policy change caused the resulting decrease in complete work

restriction days.

50

Paired Samples Test

Paired Differences t df Sig. (2-

tailed) Mean Std.

Deviation

Std. Error

Mean

95% Confidence

Interval of the

Difference

Lower Upper

Pair

1

Pre-Policy: Number

of Days on

Complete Duty

Restriction - Post-

Policy: Number of

Days of Complete

Work Restriction

.239 4.756 .099 .046 .432 2.427 2328 .015

Comparison of Light Duty Restriction Hours and Costs

As detailed in Excel findings, a firefighter on a light duty assignment may work but may

not perform firefighting activities. In the pre-policy period, firefighter injuries at vacant and

abandoned buildings resulted in $121,482 in costs for light duty hours. In the post-policy period,

firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned buildings resulted in $113,819 in costs for light duty

hours. The mean of the cost of pre-policy light duty hours was $51.22. The mean of the cost of

post-policy light-duty hours was $36.88. There was a reduction of $14.34 in the mean cost of

light duty hours per post-policy injury.

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation

PreLDCost 2329 $0.00 $28,714.18 $51.2202 $839.78244

PostLDCost 2904 $0.00 $28,519.71 $36.8885 $697.37751

Valid N (listwise) 2329

51

A paired sample T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy light duty

costs. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .810, indicating no

statistically significant difference between pre-policy and post-policy light duty costs.

There were 155 firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires that resulted in

1,435 days of light duty time, and 741 light duty days resulted from injuries suffered in the pre-

policy period. There were 694 light duty days that resulted from injuries in the post-policy

period. The mean of pre-policy restricted duty days is .32. The mean of post-policy restricted

duty days is .23. There was a slight reduction in light duty costs in the post-policy period.

A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy light duty

days. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .844, indicating no

statistically significant difference between pre-policy and post-policy light duty days.

A crosstab was conducted using pre-policy light duty days and post-policy light duty

days. The hypothesis for this crosstab is that a relationship exists between the policy change and

light duty days. The crosstab resulted in an Asymp. Sig. value of .353, indicating that no

statistical relationship exists between the variables. The null hypothesis is accepted.

Comparison of Total Costs

There were 155 firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned buildings that resulted in

$374,272 in combined restricted and light duty costs. Pre-policy injuries resulted in $236,905 in

total costs. Post-policy injuries resulted in $137,367 in total costs. The mean of total pre-policy

total injury costs is $3,197. The mean of post-policy total injury costs is $1,709. There was a

substantial decrease of $1,488 in the mean total cost per injury in the post-policy period.

52

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Sum Mean Std. Deviation

Pre-Policy: Total Cost Of

Injury 76 $0.00 $33,907.68 $242,959.57 $3,196.8364 $6,402.22550

Post-Policy: Total Cost Of

Injury 79 $0.00 $28,679.04 $134,977.25 $1,708.5728 $4,259.24342

Valid N (listwise) 5

A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy total costs.

The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .371, indicating no statistically

significant difference between pre-policy and post-policy total costs.

A crosstab was conducted using pre-policy total costs and post-policy total costs. The

hypothesis for this crosstab is that a relationship exists between the policy change and total costs.

The crosstab resulted in an Asymp. Sig. value of .353, indicating that no statistical relationship

exists between the variables. The null hypothesis is accepted.

Burn Injuries

The cost and frequency of burn injuries decreased substantially in the post-policy period.

The frequencies of pre-policy and post-policy burn injuries and costs are depicted in the

following table:

Statistics

Pre-Policy: Total Cost Of Burn Injuries

Post-Policy: Total Cost of Burn Injuries

N Valid 24 10

Missing 5212 5226 Mean $2,272.2054 $656.4250 Median $1,513.6150 $557.6450 Mode $637.31 $0.00 Std. Deviation $2,652.69824 $797.16333 Sum $54,532.93 $6,564.25

53

The mean, median, mode, and sum of pre-policy burn injuries exceeds the post-policy

values in each of those categories.

A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy total burn

costs. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .083, indicating no

statistical relationship between the variables.

A crosstab was conducted using pre-policy and post-policy total burn costs. The

hypothesis for this crosstab is that a relationship exists between the policy change and burn costs.

The crosstab resulted in an Asymp. Sig. value of .277, indicating no statistical relationship

between the variables. The null hypothesis is accepted.

A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy complete

work restriction costs from burns. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of

.124, indicating no statistical relationship between the variables.

A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy light duty

costs from burns. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .551, indicating

no statistical relationship between the variables.

Firefighting Tactics

The firefighting tactics utilized at vacant and abandoned building fires changed notably in

the post-policy period. In the pre-policy period, offensive attacks were utilized at 649 (68%) of

955 working fires at vacant and abandoned building fires. The following histogram depicts pre-

policy firefighting tactics at vacant and abandoned building fires; 1 represents offensive attacks,

2 represents defensive operations, 3 represents transitional operations, 4 represents incipient

conditions, and 5 represents exterior fire conditions.

54

In the post-policy period, offensive attacks were utilized at 721 (45%) of 1,623 working

fires at vacant and abandoned buildings. The following histogram depicts post-policy firefighting

tactics at vacant and abandoned building fires; 1 represents offensive attacks, 2 represents

defensive operations, 3 represents transitional operations, 4 represents incipient conditions, and 5

represents exterior fire conditions.

55

A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy tactics and post-policy

tactics. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .000, indicating a

statistically significant difference between pre-policy and post-policy firefighting tactics. The

results of the paired samples T-test indicate a very strong probability that the policy change

caused the resulting change in firefighting tactics.

56

Paired Samples Test

Paired Differences t df Sig. (2-tailed) Mean Std.

Deviation Std. Error

Mean 95% Confidence

Interval