analyzing political data political science i. copyright © texas education agency 2014. all rights...

Analyzing Political DataPolitical Science I

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What role does the information gathered from polling play?


Political Data

• Information from polling plays an integral role in the political events at the local, state, and national levels

• Polls can assist decision-makers in• Determining candidates• Developing effective campaign strategies• Proposing legislation

• Political candidates, political parties, news organizations, and private organizations can all conduct polls to gather information

• Public opinion polls were first invented by George Gallup in 1932• Public opinion polls are much more accurate today compared to

1932 because they are more scientific and survey carefully selected samples


Process of Conducting Polls

• Those conducting the poll must determine the population they are targeting for the survey• Population is the group of people whose opinions

are of interest and about whom information is desired

• A sample of 1,000-1,500 people can accurately represent all potential voters


Process of Conducting Polls(continued)

• The key to conducting accurate polls is random sampling, which operates on the principle that everyone should have an equal probability of being selected as a part of the sample

• With polls this size, polls are usually 95 percent accurate of being within 3 percent of what the entire population thinks (Edwards, Wattenberg, & Lineberry, 2011)


How is public opinion measured?


Polling the Public

• Public opinion consists of the public’s expressed views about an issue at a specific point in time

• Public opinion and ideology of the public are linked because ideology is the lens through which people view political issues

• Political scientist Elizabeth Noelle-Neumann argued that public opinion itself is a socializing agent in that it provides an independent context that affects political behavior (Harrison & Harris, 2011, p. 195)


Polling the Public (continued)

• Public opinion manifests in various ways, but public opinion polls are important tools used by policy makers to get an indicator of the public’s opinion• A public opinion poll is a survey of a given

population’s opinion on an issue at a particular point in time

• Random sampling is a method of poll selection that gives each person in a group the same chance of being selected


Quota Sampling

• Is a scientifically sophisticated method of sampling rather than random sampling

• A pollster structures the sample so that it is representative of the characteristics of the target population

• This data is usually collected from census data• For example, if census data states that 40 percent of the

population is white, then 40 percent of the target sample should be considered white

• Since this might make participants uncomfortable, it is better to collect demographic information at the end of the poll


Stratified Sampling

• The national population is divided into fourths and certain areas within these regions are selected as representative of the national population

• Larger organizations and media polls now use stratified sampling

• Stratified sampling is the most reliable form of random sampling (Harrison & Harris, 2011, p. 200)


Stratified Sampling (continued)

• Nearly every major polling organization relies on US census data as the basis of its four sampling regions

• Stratified sampling is the basis for much of the public opinion data used by political scientists and other social scientists


How does public opinion polling affect politics?


Role of Polls

• Results of polls• Polls help political candidates detect public preferences• Polls help policymakers to keep in touch with changing

opinions on the issues• If the polls reflect a shift, then the government officials

can make corresponding midcourse corrections• Polls can also create a bandwagon effect, which means

that the population will support a certain candidate or legislation merely because a majority of people are doing so


Role of Polls (continued)

• Public opinion about the government• Analysts of public opinion and government officials are

concerned with public opinion about the government at all levels

• Public opinion researchers are often asked to rate their level of trust in the government in regards to domestic/international policy and the executive, legislative, and judicial branches• The responses to these questions are important for several reasons; for

instance, they measure opinions about the federal institution rather than the individual

• The levels of trust in the government often rise and fall over time depending on circumstances like the economy, war, social issues, etc.


Public Opinion and Policymaking

• Public opinion polling and democracy• Policy makers are very responsive to public opinion polls• Political scientists Shapiro and Page show that when the

public supports a policy change, the following occurs: policy changes in a direction consistent with the change in public opinion (Schmidt, Shelley, Bardes & Ford, p. 237)

• Shapiro and Page also state that when public opinion changes by 20 percentage points or more, the government policy is much more likely to follow the changing public attitudes (Schmidt, Shelley, Bardes, & Ford, 2012, p. 237)


Public Opinion and Policymaking(continued)

• Setting limits on government action• Public opinion polls cannot give exact guidance on what

the government should do in a specific instance• Given the distribution of certain results, most elected

officials would rather not try to change policy to favor either of the extreme positions

• Public opinion polls can only give policymakers a limited amount of guidance when it comes to decision making

• Policymakers must make their own choices when it comes to creating legislation


Resources

• Edwards, George, Martin Wattenberg, and Robert Lineberry. Government in America: People, Politics and Policy. 15. New York City: Longman, 2011. Chapter 17 & 21. Print.

• Harrison, Brigid, and Jean Harris. American Democracy Now. 2. New York City: McGrawHill Company, 2011. Chapter 15 & 18. Print.

• O'Conner, Karen, Larry Sabato, and Alixandra Yanus. American Government: Roots and Reform. 2011. New York City: Longman, 2011. Chapter 4 & 18. Print.

• Patterson, Thomas. The American Democracy. 9th. New York City: McGraw Hill Higher Education, 2009. Ch. 15 & 18. Print.

• Schmidt, Steffan, Mack Shelley, Barbara Bardes, and Lynne Ford. American Government and Politics Today. 2011-2012. Boston: Wadsworth Cenage Learning, 2012. Chapter 17 &19. Print.

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