anant raj industries
TRANSCRIPT
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1January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539November 24, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 1
Anant Raj Industries
Initiating Coverage
Stock Info
BUY
Price Rs 139
Target Price Rs 189
Investment Period 12 months
Sector Real Estate
Market Cap (Rs cr) 4,105
Beta 0.8
52 Week High / Low 164/38
Avg. Daily Volume 310590
Face Value (Rs) 2
BSE Sensex 17,131
Nifty 5,091
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 61.4
MF / Banks / Indian FIs 7.8
FII / NRIs / OCBs 27.5
Indian Public / Others 3.3
Abs. 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex (%) 9.6 92.4 25.0
Anant Raj (%) 4.1 199.1 (44.0)
BSE Code 515055
NSE Code ANANTRAJ
Reuters Code ANRA.BO
Bloomberg Code ARCP@IN
Param Desai
Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 310
E-mail: [email protected]
Mihir Salot
Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 307
E-mail: [email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: * Net Sales = Sales - (Construction & Land cost); ** Assuming
dilution of warrants
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E
Net Sales* 604 251 278 481
% chg 190.2 (58.5) 10.7 73.4
Net Profit 436 207 240 382% chg 247.8 (52.5) 15.9 59.2
FDEPS (Rs)** 13.9 6.6 7.6 12.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 93.1 88.0 94.7 94.5
P/E (x) 10.0 21.1 18.2 11.4
RoE (%) 21.5 6.7 7.0 10.1
RoCE (%) 24.8 6.5 6.7 10.9
P/BV (x) 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.3 16.7 14.5 8.4
Real (Estate) Value
Anant Raj Industries (ARIL) is a prominent and well-diversified Real Estate player in the NCR
region. We expect ARIL's two super premium Residential projects of Hauz Khas andBhagwandas, located in the heart of Delhi, to drive its near-term operational visibility and help
register Rs600cr Profit over the next three years. Further, ARIL has 70% and 30% pre-lease
commitments at its Manesar IT Park and Kirti Nagar mall respectively, coupled with five hotels
getting operational by FY2011E wihich will improve rental visibility. At Rs139, the stock is
trading at 37% discount to our 1-year forward NAV, 11.4x FY2011E EPS and 1.1x FY2011E
P/BV. We Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation and Target Price o
Rs189, which is at 15% discount to our 1-year forward NAV.
Land acquisition at discounted price: Almost all of ARIL's land bank (872 acres) is
exclusively located in the NCR within 50km of Delhi, with approximately 525 acres in Delhi
This land bank has been acquired at an historical average cost of Rs300/sq ft with recent
transactions by ARIL executed at Rs450/sq ft and Rs130/sq ft in high-growth areas like Manesaand Sonepat. ARIL's successful land acquisition strategy is attributed to its acquisition through
allocation route from DDA at significantly lower prices compared to prevailing rates and being
a focused NCR player, which helps in identifying areas with high economic potential in Delhi
Super premium Residential projects to drive near-term visibility: We expect ARIL's
super premium residential projects of Hauz Khas and Bhagwandas, located in the heart o
Delhi, to drive its near-term operational visibility and help register Rs600cr Profit over the nex
three years. Further, ARIL has 70% pre-lease commitments at its Manesar IT Park (1.2mn sq
ft) at Rs32/sq ft where 30% of lessees have already acquired fit-outs and another 40% wil
move in by March FY2010. Nearly 30% of its Kirti Nagar retail mall is pre-leased out at an
average rentals of Rs150/sq ft with Bharti Walmart as anchor tenant. It will also have five
hotels operational by FY2011E with transfer of occupancy risk to third party in return of fixed
rentals.
Well-capitalised Balance Sheet: ARIL's land bank is fully paid and it has net cash
balance of Rs550cr. This augurs well for it even in a downturn and gives headroom to leverage
at reasonable costs for timely execution of projects. Further, recent issuance of 2cr warrants
to promoters (Rs87/share), will further strengthen its cash balance by Rs175cr on conversion.
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Investment Arguments
Land acquisition at discounted price and at prime locations
Ananth Raj Industries (ARIL) has total 60mn sq ft saleable area out of which 67% is Non-Residential
Almost all of ARIL's land bank (872 acres) is exclusively located in the NCR within 50kms of Delhi
while approximately 525 acres is in Delhi itself, making it one of the largest land owners in Delhi.
Pertinently, the company has acquired the land bank at an average cost of Rs300/sq ft, which
provides high comfort and scope to reduce prices even amidst a downturn. Also, around 50% of
the land bank is in high growth areas like Manesar, Greater Noida, Gurgaon and Sonepat.
Ahead of competition
ARIL's focus on NCR helps it to identify and acquire attractive land parcels ahead of competition,
and obtain timely approvals to launch its projects. Unlike competition, it does not acquire land
through auctions, but through the allocation route at significantly lower prices compared to prevailing
rates. A well-capitalised Balance Sheet also facilitates ARIL acquire distress land. Recently, ARIL
bought land at Manesar and Sonepat at attractive rates of Rs450/sq ft and Rs130/sq ft respectively
while competition acquired land at higher rates. ARILs in-house construction arm with a development
capacity of 6-7mn sq ft annually also ensures timely execution of development plans.
ARILs land bank of 60mn sq ft
has been acquired at
Rs300/sq ft
ARIL has acquired land
through allocation route at
significantly lower prices
compared to prevailing market
rates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Manesar Delhi Nazafgarh Sonepat Greater Nodia
Others*
Commercial Residential Hotels
35.0% 28.7% 6.6% 5.2% 4.6% 19.4%
(%)
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Includes Faizalwas, Jaipur, Chandigarh etc.
Exhibit 1: Location-wise contribution of Land Bank (60mn sq ft)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: Around 67% exposure to Non-Residential Sector
33mn sq ft
7.2mn sq ft
19.8mn sq ft
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Hauz Khas
Bhagwandas
Residential Segment - 33% of Total Saleable area
Super premium projects to drive near-term operational visibility
ARIL's Residential Segment accounts for 33% of its overall Saleable area. The company plans to
launch premium properties in the heart of Delhi in Hauz Khas and Bhagwandas by end of FY2010E
and FY2011E, respectively. ARIL has appointed DTZ for marketing these projects. Average
residential capital values are in the range of Rs25,000-35,000/sq ft. We expect Revenues from
Hauz Khas and Bhagwandas to start contributing from FY2010E and FY2012E, respectively. The
properties will comprise 80 flats each and contribute around Rs1,300cr and Rs600cr to Top-line
and Bottom-line respectively, over the next three years.
Source: Google Map, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Super Premium Residential Projects in the heart of Delhi
Key mid-income launches over next two-three years
Recently, ARIL bought land at Manesar and Sonepat (Rai) at attractive levels of Rs450/sq ft and
Rs130/sq ft, respectively. The Manesar property of around 10.6 acres is adjacent to DLF's Express
Green property, which DLF sold at Rs1,850-2,000/sq ft. ARIL will have 1mnsq ft of saleable area
and plans to launch it as mid-income residential apartments by FY2011E. The Rai property located
near its upcoming IT SEZ will also be launched as mid-income residential apartments. It also
intends to launch mid-range residential apartments at Kapashera near the Delhi Internationa
Airport in FY2011E where the projects have received all the necessary approvals. This is in lieu ofdevelopers' focus across the country on mid-income projects as it brings upfront cash by way of
customer advances. The Segment can also not be ignored as the middle class constitutes
60-65% of the population and home loan rates are also quoting at attractive levels currently.
We expect Revenues from
Hauz Khas and Bhagwandas
to start contributing from
FY2010E and FY2012E,
respectively
ARIL recently bought land at
Manesar and Sonepat (Rai) at
attractive rates of Rs450/sq ft
and Rs130/sq ft, respectively
where it intends to launch mid-
income projects.
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
ARIL banking on fast-growing Tier I cities
ARIL has seven IT SEZs/parks, of which three are at Manesar, and one each at Japiur, Sonepat
Chandigarh and Greater Noida. The IT/ITES Sector, which earlier confined itself to the larger
canvas of Delhi and adjoining areas such as Gurgaon/Noida, Mumbai - the financial capital of the
country and Bangalore - the largest commercial hub, is now targeting Tier I and II cities and the
smaller towns where real estate is cheaper, infrastructure is on a growth curve and manpower
availability is not much of a problem.
Commercial Segment - 55% of Total Saleable area
Post the sharp decline in the past few quarters, capital values have started to strengthen and
registered marginal appreciation across most micro markets in the NCR. Industry participantshave indicated that surge in leasing enquiries have come on the back of renewed interest from
corporates. Recovery in the Commercial and Retail Segments generally lag recovery in the
economy. Accordingly, we believe demand in office space will start picking up 2H2011E onwards.
Cushman and Wakefield estimates pan-India cumulative demand for office space during
CY2009-13 to be 196mn sq ft.
Surge in leasing enquiries
have come on the back ofrenewed interest from
corporates
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Residential Projects in the Pipeline
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Pan-India Commercial Demand over next five years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Commercial Space
mnsq
.ft
Project Segment Saleable area Selling price Revenue Revenue EBIDTA
(mn sq ft) (Rs/ sq ft) schedule (Rs cr) (Rs cr)
Hauz Khas-South
Central Delhi Super-Premium 0.27 25,000 FY10-12 687 408
Bhagwandas-
Central Delhi Super-Premium 0.26 25,000 FY11-13 653 411
Manesar Mid-income 1.02 1,800 FY12-14 214 42
Kapashera-Delhi Mid-income 0.30 3,500 FY11-13 113 27
Rai, Sonepat Mid-income 0.80 1,800 FY13-16 180 40
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
IT/ITES companies are now
focusing on Tier I and II cities
and smaller towns where real
estate is cheaper,
infrastructure is on a growthcurve and manpower
availability is not much of a
problem
Manesar: Manesar has undergone a sea change from being a mere village to transforming into a
lavish industrial and commercial trade center. Commercialisation in Manesar has presented the
perfect example of growth especially post development of the IMT Manesar Industrial area. Manesar
has traditionally been a manufacturing centre, with the manufacturing plants of India's largest
carmaker and bikemaker, Maruti Suzuki and Hero Honda respectively, situated there. Going ahead,connectivity to Manesar is also set to dramatically improve once the Kundli-Manesar-Palwal (KMP)
expressway gets operational, which will connect Manesar to West Delhi. Besides, the Delhi Metro
project will connect Manesar to South Delhi and Gurgaon. Thus, gauging the high potential of
Manesar's real estate market, real estate majors players like Anant Raj, DLF, Reliance Industries
and Unitech have shifted their focus to the city.
Greater Noida: It is an emerging hot spot destination owing to development of the Taj Expressway
and a proposal to set up a new airport in the area. IT majors (Wipro, HCL and NIIT Technologies)
have acquired land to set up their SEZs in Greater Noida. Major real-estate developers such as
Anant Raj, Jaypee, Unitech, and Ansal Group have also acquired land to set up IT SEZs.
Jaipur: Known as the pink city of India, Jaipur has been fast transforming into an IT/ITES outsourcing
hub following GE Capital Corporations decision to set up its latest contact centre there. The city
has an annual addition of over 11,500 engineers and over 200,000 graduates across the state.
Among the incentives available to the IT industry in Jaipur include rebate of up to 60% on land
charges, exemption from Stamp Duty for land registration, 50% exemption from electricity duty for
seven years and simplified labour regulations and procedures
Rental income will provide visibility
ARIL's Commercial Segment accounts for 55% (33mn sq ft) of its overall saleable area, out of
which it intends to lease out around 32mn sq ft. Of this 33mn sq ft, 12.3mn sq ft is under 50:50 jointventure (JV) with the Reliance ADA Group at Manesar where it intends build an IT SEZ. The
company's first IT Park at Manesar (1.2mn sq ft) is ready for fit-outs where almost 70% have
already been pre-leased out atRs32/sq ft. The rentals started kicking in from 1QFY2010 with 30%
of space given for fit-outs and another 40% of lessees moving in over the next six months. The
company has also leased out its hotel (0.1mn sqft), which is a part of its Manesar IT Park, to the
Hilton management (Hampton) for 30 years at Rs24/sq ft (excluding maintenance cost) with 15%
escalation in the lease rental every three years. Currently, besides its Manesar IT Park, ARIL
derives its commercial rental income from three of its properties located in Delhi. Further, the
company intends to complete first phase of its ongoing project, IT SEZ at Rai, Sonepat by
3QFY2011E, post which it will have leasable area of around 1-1.5mn sq ft. By 2QFY2011E, ARIL
intends to start two more IT Parks in Jaipur and Panchkhula. Consequently, we expect visibility of
the company's Commercial Rental Income to improve from Rs12cr in FY2009 to Rs95cr in FY2012E.
The visibility of ARILs
Commercial Rental Income willimprove from Rs12cr in
FY2009 to Rs95cr in FY2012E
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
ARIL has two premium Retail malls (Karol Bagh and Kirti Nagar) in Delhi aggregating 6,40,000
sq ft. The Karol Bagh property is already leased out at Rs150/sq ft, while the Kirti Nagar property
is nearing completion and would be ready for fit-outs by March 2010. ARIL has already pre-leased
out around 30% of the Kirti Nagar property at average rentals of Rs150/sq ft. ARIL has signed
Bharti-Walmart as anchor tenant at its Kirti Nagar mall for Rs80/sq ft. It may be noted here thatthere are no Retail malls within a radius of 2-3km of the ARIL mall, and it is close to DLF's Capita
Green residential project as well. ARIL also plans to develop an amusement park on its 180 acre
land at Pur, North Delhi. We estimate rentals at the Retail malls to increase from Rs4.5cr in FY2009
to Rs67cr in FY2012E.
Rentals at the Retail malls to
increase from Rs4.5cr in
FY2009 to Rs67cr in FY2012E
with Kirti Nagar Mall being
ready for fit-outs by March2010
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: Kirti Nagar mall to be ready for fit-outs by March 2010
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10:Rental Income Retail Malls
Project (Rs cr) FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Karol Bagh 4.2 4.4 4.7
Kirti Nagar - 29.7 62.1
Total 4.2 34.1 66.8
Hotel Segment - 12% of Total Saleable area
The upcoming Commonwealth Games 2010scheduled to be held at the NCR has seen a rush by
many developers to come up with hotel sites. However, the recent cash crunch situation and
falling tourist levels have delayed the execution cycle for most upcoming hotel properties. The
average room rent (ARR) declined by 25% yoy to Rs8,321 during April-Sept 2009 as hotels slashedrates to arrest declining occupancy rates. However, we expect ARRs to remain stable at current
levels over the next six months as both leisure and corporate demand is showing signs of picking
up. Delhi witnessed occupancy rate of 61% during April-Sept 2009. According to Cushman &
Wakefield, pan-India demand for the Hospitality Sector is estimated to be over 690,000 room
nights by 2013E, of which 15% of the demand will be led by the NCR region. We believe that ARIL
will be a key beneficiary as it will have five hotels operational by FY2011E near the Delhi airport.
We expect ARRs to remain
stable at current levels over
the next six months as both
leisure and corporate demandis showing signs of picking up
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Transferring occupancy risk to third party
ARIL has 16 hotel properties in the NCR with around 4,500 rooms getting operational by FY2015E
Currently, the company has two hotel properties operational (Exoticaand Retreat) near the Delh
airport adjoining Chattarpur where ARIL has transferred occupancy risks to third parties in return
of fixed rentals of Rs6.5mn and Rs7.5mn on a monthly basis for the next six years, with price
escalation after three years. This works out to Rs70 and Rs80/sq ft rental for the two hotel properties
Further, three more hotel properties would be completed by 2HFY2011E. These hotel properties
are located on the main NH-8 near the Delhi airport and will add another 250 rooms. ARIL
management has indicated to work on a Revenue-sharing model or Fixed Rentals and transfer
the occupancy risk to a third party. Consequently, we believe that ARILs Hotel rental income
would increase from Rs17.6cr in FY2010E to Rs49.6cr in FY2012E.
We believe that ARILs Hotel
rental income would increase
from Rs17.6cr in FY2010E to
Rs49.6cr in FY2012E
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Hospitality
(000)
Rooms
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11: Pan-India Hospitality Demand over next five years
Source: Google Map, Angel Research
Exhibit 12: Five hotel properties to get operational by FY2011E
Hotel Properties
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Project (Rs cr) FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Exotica 7.5 7.5 7.5
Retreat 8.8 8.8 8.8
Grand - 6.7 7.0
Papillon - 4.4 4.6
Tri-color - 4.8 6.7
Manesar 1.4 2.7 2.7
Rai - - 3.6
Green Retreat - - 8.6
Total 17.6 34.9 49.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 13:Rental Income from Hotel Properties
Strategic alliances and fund raising temper risks
To temper risks of long gestation and high cash outflow projects, ARIL has tied up with reputed
businesses and raised funds at the parent and project levels on a regular basis. This strategy has
helped ARIL reduce commitment of upfront equity. For instance, it has formed a JV with the
Reliance ADA group for its Manesar SEZ and hotel project near the Delhi airport. The Government
of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC), which has 5.9% stake in ARIL at Rs246/share has the
first right of refusal for every JV that ARIL is involved. ARIL also has 50:50 JV with Monsoon
Capital for development of its Panchkhula IT Park and sold 26% stake to Taib Bank at its Kirt
Nagar Mall for Rs17,000/sq ft. In the last four years, ARIL has raised Rs20bn till date and has
pedigreed investors like Citigroup, GIC, Taib Bank, Goldman Sach, ABN Amro, etc.
In the last four years, ARIL
raised Rs20bntill date and has
pedigreed investors like
Citigroup, GIC, Taib Bank,
Goldman Sach and ABN Amro,
among others
Well-capitalised Balance Sheet
ARIL's land bank is fully paid and the company also has Net Cash Balance of Rs550cr. Thisaugurs well for it even amidst a downturn as would give it headroom to leverage at reasonable
cost for timely execution of projects. Further the recent issuance of 2cr warrants to promoters at
Rs87/share, would further strengthen the companys Cash Balance by Rs175cr on conversion.
We believe that ARIL will require Rs2,200cr for execution over the next three years, which would
easily be met through internal accruals. ARIL's high debtors of Rs241cr include receivables of
Rs115cr for the property sold to IIPM. The money will be received by ARIL after six years during
which time it will be paid 15% coupon on annualised basis.
Company (Rs cr) Net Worth Debt Cash Net Debt/Equity (x)ARIL 3,460 100 650 (0.16)
DLF 25,004 14,729 634 0.56
H D I L 6,644 3,271 110 0.48
IBREL 4,515 339 1,622 (0.28)
Parsvnath 2,072 1,936 207 0.83
Sobha 1,641 1,459 21 0.88
Unitech 5,545 6,500 740 1.04
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 14: ARIL - Strong Balance Sheet v/s Peers (2QFY2010)
ARIL has Net Cash Balance ofRs550cr. We believe that ARIL
will require Rs2,200cr for
execution over the next three
years, which would easily be
met through internal accruals
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 15: Fund raising till date (2QFY2010)
Date Source of Amount Issue price
Fund raising (Rs cr) (Rs/share)
Sep-05 Private placement 44 35
May-06 Private placement 243 120
May-07 Private placement 678 246
Feb-08 GDR 608 300
Jun-08 Sells 26% stake to Taib Bank in Kirti Nagar 216 Rs17,000/sq ft
Aug-09 Warrants to promoters 175 87
Sep-09 Sell 25% stake in Dhamaspur project 80 Rs850/sq ft
Concerns
High exposure to Non-Residential Segment
ARIL's 67% of saleable area is non-Residential - commercial and hotels. The company intends to
adopt a lease model for these assets. The property market slowdown in FY2009 resulted in a
decline in asset prices and rentals by 20-40% across micro markets in the NCR along with lower
occupancy levels. However, owing to softening Interest rates and improving Employment outlook,
a surge in demand has been witnessed in the Residential Sector unlike in the Non-Residential
Sector. Nonetheless, historically it has been seen that demand in the Non-Residential Sector lags
improvement in the economy. Besides, around 70% of demand for Commercial space comes from
the IT/ITES Sector, which has been impacted by the global slowdown. Our interaction with industry
participants indicates that leasing enquiries have improved with the overall IT/ITES Sector looking
at expanding its employee base. Further, ARRs for hotels are also likely to remain stable in the
medium term with the Commonwealth Gamesscheduled to be held in the NCR region in 2010.We have assumed recovery in the Non-Residential Segment in 2HFY2011E. However, any delay
will impact our pricing assumptions.
Fall in property prices
In FY2009, pan-India property prices fell 20-50%. However, in the last six months, prices have
increased by 5-20% from their bottom lows especially in Mumbai and Delhi. For valuation purposes,
we have assumed 5% increase in the Residential prices and 5% decline in the Commercial and
Hotel rentals from current levels in FY2011E, but 5% increase thereon. Thus, a more-than-expected
correction in the prices will impact our NAV.
Delay in Execution
We have assumed ARIL's premium projects at Hauz Khas and Bhagwandas to be launched by
end of FY2010E and FY2011E respectively. We have assumed its Kirti Nagar mall to be ready for
fit-outs by March 2010. In the Hotel Segment, we expect another three hotels to get operational by
2HFY2011E. We expect first phase of ARIL's Rai IT SEZ to get operational in 3QFY2011E. However
delays in execution or new launches will impact our estimates and in turn our NAV.
Around 70% of demand for
Commercial space comes
from the IT/ITES Sector, which
has been impacted by the
global slowdown
Delays in new Residential
project launches will impact
our estimates and in turn our
NAV
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Financials
We expect ARIL to deliver 38.5% Revenue CAGR over FY2009-11E to Rs481cr. We expect the
Residential Segment to record Income of Rs460cr over the next two years driven by Premium
Residential launches in Delhi. Rental income visibility would increase from Rs16cr in FY2009E to
Rs124cr in FY2011E as two of the companys IT Parks will be leased out and five hotel properties
will get operational by FY2011E. We expect EBIDTA Margins to improve from current levels of
88.0% to 94.5% in FY2011E on account of low land cost and premium residential launches.
Consequently, we estimate ARIL to register 35.8% CAGR in PAT over FY2009-11E.
We expect ARIL to deliver
38.5% and 35.8% Revenue and
PAT CAGR respectively, over
FY2009-11E
Valuation -Trading at significant discount to NAV
Key Assumptions
Residential Segment valued at Rs49/share
We have assumed selling price of Rs25,000/sq ft for the company's premium projects of Hauz
Khas and Bhagwandas to be launched by end of FY2010E and FY2011E respectively. We have
assumed that the companys mid-income projects of Kapashera, Manesar and Rai would be
launched over FY2011-13E. We have factored in 5% price escalation from current levels FY2011E
onwards in construction and capital value for all its projects. We have assumed that ARIL wil
develop all its projects and sell them by FY2019E.Consequently, we have valued its Residentia
Segment at Rs1,548cr, translating into Rs49/share.
Commercial Segment valued at Rs124/share
We expect the Manesar IT Park to achieve 70% occupancy level (current pre-lease commitments)
in FY2011E and first phase of the Rai IT SEZ to be delivered for fit-outs by 3QFY2011E. We have
assumed that the Kirti Nagar mall will be delivered for fit-outs in FY2011E and expect 50% occupancy
in FY2011E. We have factored in 5% correction in Rentals in FY2011E, but 5% increase FY2012E
onwards. Hence, we have valued the company's Commercial Segment at Rs3,896cr,
translating into Rs124/share.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 16: Revenue and Profit Trends
85.1
93.1
88.0
94.7
94.5
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E
Revenue PAT OPM (%)
(%)
(Rs
cr)
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Hospitality Segment valued at Rs50/share
We expect the companys five hotels (situated in proximity to the Delhi airport) to get operationa
by FY2011E. We have assumed ARIL to transfer occupancy risks to third parties in return for fixed
rentals in line with its existing strategy. We have factored in 5% correction in Rentals in FY2011E
but 5% increase FY2012E onwards for the properties yet to be released. Consequently, we have
valued ARILs Hospitality Segment at Rs1,569cr, translating into Rs50/share.
We have assigned 15% WACC and 10% capitalisation rate.
Buy with a Target Price of Rs189
ARIL is trading at37% discount to NAV (much higher than its peers), which gives a margin of
safety given its low-cost land bank situated at prime locations and well-capitalised Balance Sheet
This is primarily owing to higher exposure to commercial assets (67%). However, we believe tha
near-term Revenue visibility will be driven by ARIL's super premium residential projects. We
expect demand to pick up in the Commercial and Retail Segments in 2HFY2011E. Our channelchecks suggest that leasing enquiries have picked up following renewed interest from corporates.
The ARIL stock is trading at 11.4x FY2011E EPS and 1.1x FY2011E P/BV. We have assumed
conversion of warrants to promoters (at Rs87/share) issued in August 2009. We Initiate
Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation and Target Price of Rs189, which is at
15% discount to our 1-year forward NAV and provides potential upside of 36% from current
levels.
Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 17: Valuation Summary
1 Yr forward NAV (Rs/share)
Commercial 124
Hospitality 50
Residential 49
Other income 12
Total 234
Add: Net Cash 22
Less: Present value of taxes (33)
NAV/share (Rs) 223
Target Price (Rs) 15% discount to NAV 189
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Exhibit 18: NAV Model Snapshot
Particulars FY2011E FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E FY2019E
Project Profit 501 869 861 819 1,634
Tax (96) (210) (203) (186) (362)
Profit After Tax 405 659 657 633 9,730
Discounted Cash Flow 336 476 413 345 2,640
Rentals capitalised in FY2019 8,458
WACC (%) 15
Cap rate (%) 10
PV of CF 5,482
Less Net Debt 595
Implied Market Value 6,078
No of shares (cr) 32
NAV/share 193
NAV (1-year forward) 22315% discount to NAV 189
Source: Angel Research
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Industry Outlook
The Real Estate Sector in India is now on a gradual improvement curve with new projects being
launched and liquidity position of developers improving on the back of QIPs and proposed public
issue offers. This has been supported by the government policies that allowed housing loans to
individuals carrying a risk weightage of 50% to be increased from Rs2mn to Rs3mn along with
allowing rescheduling of bank debt without it being classified as NPL. Over the last six months,
listed companies have raised US $3.5bn through QIPs and issuance of warrants. Further
US $3bn would be raised from the proposed IPO hitting markets in early 2010E. According to
Cushman and Wakefield, the forecast for Pan- India commercial office space is 196mn sq ft, while
Retail space demand stands at 43mn sq ft for 2009-13. Demand for Hospitality and Residentia
Segments is estimated at over 690,000 room nights and 7.5mn units respectively, over the mentioned
period. We expect demand from Commercial and Retail Segments to pick up in 2HFY2011E owing
to renewed interest from Corporates thereby catching up with Residential Segment.
We expect demand for
Commercial and Retail
Segments to pick up in
2HFY2011E owing to renewed
interest from Corporates
thereby catching up with the
Residential Segment
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 19: QIP Proceeds eased Liquidity
Company (US $mn)
Ackruti City 65
DLF 830
HDIL 363
IBREL 570
Orbit Corp 30
Parsvnath 36
Sobha Developers 115
Unitech 950
Total 2,959
Exhibit 20: Forthcoming IPOs in early 2010
Company (US $mn)
Ambience 200
DB Realty 400
Emaar MGF 750
Godrej Properties 100
Lodha Developers 500
Nitesh Estates 100
Oberoi Constructions 150
Sahara Prime City 700
Total 2,900
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Company Background
Though ARIL was incorporated in 1985 as Anant Raj Clay Products (ARCP), it began operations
in 1969 by offering construction business for DDA. Over the years, the company has constructed
11.5mn sq ft, and currently its construction arm has capacity to execute around 6-7mn sq ft annually
Being a reputed contractor for DDA has always helped ARIL to acquire land at cheaper cost than
competition. Gradually, it also got involved in design, manufacture and sale of ceramic tiles under
the brand name, Romano, with manufacturing facilities at Rewari, Haryana. In 1999, the company's
Ceramic business was declared sick and referred to the BIFR. Post its financial restructuring
under IDBI, ARCP was merged into ARIL in 2005 and forayed into the Real Estate development
business in its bid to achieve forward integration and economies of scale for its Ceramic Tile
business. In the same year, the company also consolidated other group companies involved in
construction and development business into ARIL in a phased manner. Post the merger, ARIL
currently has 872 acres in the thriving NCR region with 90% within 50kms of Delhi and 525 acres
in Delhi, making it among one of the largest land holders in Delhi. It intends to focus as a local real
estate developer and enhance its management expertise in understanding the local market.
In 2005, the company
consolidated other group
companies involved in the
construction and development
business in a phased manner
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 21: Chronology of Events
Incorporatedas Anant Raj
Clay Products Ltd.
1985 1989 1995 2005
Commencedproduction ofCeramic Tiles
Name changedto Anant Raj
Industries
Consolidation ofthe development
andconstruction
business
US$ 16mn(@ Rs35/share)
raisedthrough Private
Placement
RaisedUS$ 66mn
(@ Rs120/share)
1st appr ovedby High CourtMerger
2nd approvedby High CourtMerger
Raised US$ 168.8mn(@ Rs246/share)
3rd Merger approvedby High Court
Raised US$ [email protected] US$/GDR
2006 2007 2008
Sell 26% stake toTaib Bank in
Kirti Nagar mall
2009
Rentals from itsManesar IT park
started
2 Hotel properties nearDelhi airport
got operational
Issued 20mn warrantsto promotersRs87/share
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Company Project Location Launch Date Price Rs/sq ft
DLF Capital Green-Phase I Delhi Mar-09 6,500
Capital Green-Phase II Delhi Sep-09 7,500
Unitech Sunbreeze Gurgaon Aug-09 2,740
Vistas Gurgaon Sep-09 2,800
Unihomes Noida Jun-09 3,000
Unihomes Greater Noida Aug-09 1,800
IBREL Centrum Park Gurgaon Mar-09 2,500
Jaypee Kosmos Noida Jul-09 3,000
Aman Noida May-09 2,100
Exhibit 22: Surge in new launches in NCR
Appendix: NCR market
The National Capital Region (NCR) covers an area of 30,242sq. km. including the states of Haryana,
Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and the National Capital Territory of Delhi. NCR is the largest Residentia
and Retail and the second largest Commercial real estate market in India. Gurgaon is the preferred
location for the IT/ITES Sector, which controls 72% of the Commercial market in the NCR owing to
its proximity to the international airport and upcoming metro terminal. The Residential market is
largely dominated by speculators as large real estate agents pick up apartments in bulk during
launch. In the last six months, we have witnessed huge activity of launches across Gurgaon,
Noida and Greater Noida in the Mid-Income Housing Segment. Retail rentals have corrected
across most segments in the NCR with West Delhi leading the way. Overall, we expect the
Residential prices to remain stable, while further correction is expected in the Commercial and
Retail Segments over 1HFY2011E, followed by a phase of consolidation, with demand picking up.
We also expect emerging locations such as Manesar and Greater Noida to be looked at by
corporates owing to cost advantage, manpower availability and overall growth in IT/ITES recruitment.
Residential Segment to witness surge in New Launches
Private developer apartment supply (vertical format high density developments) in the NCR has
been predominantly restricted to Gurgaon and Noida due to unavailability of land for development
in Delhi. There has been a sharp increase in apartment activity in the Gurgaon and Noida markets
over the last four to five years, which has led to a supply of organised apartments. The Residential
market in NCR unlike other markets is being sold through brokers sending soft mailers to know the
right pricing and actual demand. At the time of launches, the agents book apartments in bulk and
sell them out as price appreciates. We have seen a demand pick up in the first half of FY2010E on
account of new launches at discounted prices and improved liquidity thereby attracting investors.
Overall, we expect prices to remain stable at current levels with further increase expected in
2HFY2011E as demand starts picking up.
NCR is the largest Residential
and Retail and the second
largest Commercial real estate
market in India
We expect prices to remain
stable at current levels with
further increase expected in
2HFY2011E as demand starts
picking up
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Commercial Segment - Rentals to stabilise
Gurgaon, which handles around 72% of the Commercial market in NCR has seen the sharpest
rise and fall in Rentals. Office space rentals in Gurgaon have declined 31% since January 2008.
The supply in NCR is expected to reduce from 14mn sq ft in CY2008 to 10.5mn sq ft in CY2009
owing to delays in execution, subdued demand and liquidity crunch faced by the developers.
Overall, vacancy rates were recorded in the range of 11-13% due to reduced occupier demand
and lack of pre-commitments. We expect Rental values to stabilise across all micro markets owing
to renewed interest from Corporates.
Office supply in NCR reduced
from 14mn sq ft in CY2008 to
10.5mn sq ft in CY2009 owing
to delays in execution,
subdued demand and liquidity
crunch faced by developers
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009
G urgaon (Comm.) G urgaon (IT/SEZ) Noida (Comm.) Noida (IT/SEZ) CBD-Prime (RHS)
Rs
/Sq
.ft./m
on
th
Rs
/Sq
.ft./m
on
th
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Angel Research
Exhibit 24: Rentals to stabilise
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Angel Research; Note: *Does not include pre-commitments
Exhibit 23: Office Supply and Absorption Trends ( NCR)
Supply Absorption*
02002
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09
mnsq
.ft
.
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Retail Segment - Still some pain left
With the sustained supply additions witnessed since 2004, cumulative supply of investment grade
mall format retail space in the NCR stood at 13mn sq ft as of 3QCY2009. The slowdown in
demand and reduced absorption forced developers to re-schedule the completion time of their
projects with some even re-considering the development plans. The fall in Retail Rentals is
highest across segments in the NCR with West Delhi leading the way due to high vacancy noted
in existing developments over the last one year. Rentals constitute 6-10% of Revenues for
Retailers like Pantaloon, Shopper Stop and 10-15% for foreign brands. The slowdown in demand
coincided with the significant supply of the malls. We believe that the Retailers are likely to
continue to re-negotiate rentals at prevailing values to attain more sustainable levels.
We believe that the Retailers
will continue to renegotiate
rentals at prevailing values to
attain more sustainable levels
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Angel Research
Exhibit 25: Rentals have corrected 30-40% over past one year
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009
Gurgaon Noida South Delhi West Delhi
Rs
/Sq
.ft./month
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) Rs crore
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E
Net Sales 604 251 278 481
% chg 190 (58) 11 73
Total Expenditure (42) (30) (15) (27)EBITDA 562 221 263 455
(% of Net Sales) 93.1 88.0 94.7 94.5
Other Income 29 70 57 46
Share in profits of associates - - - -
Depreciation& Amortisation (8) (9) (17) (21)
Interest (3) (0) (0) (1)
PBT 580 282 302 479
(% of Net Sales) 96.1 112.3 108.9 99.6
Min. Int./EO/Prior Period Items 0 (1) (2) (1)
Tax (144) (73) (60) (96)
(% of PBT) 24.8 26.0 20.0 20.0
Reported PAT 436 207 240 382
% chg 247.8 (52.5) 15.9 59.2
(% of Net Sales) 72.3 82.7 86.6 79.4
Adj. PAT 436 208 242 383
% chg 247.7 (52.2) 16.0 58.6
(% of Net Sales) 72.2 83.1 87.1 79.7
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 59 59 59 63
Reserves& Surplus 2,842 3,261 3,511 3,966Shareholders Funds 2,901 3,320 3,570 4,029
Total Loans 58 210 110 110
Deferred Tax Liability 2 3 3 3
Minority Interest 0 69 69 69
Total Liabilities 2,961 3,601 3,751 4,210
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 1,131 1,260 1,534 1,894
Less: Acc. Depreciation (37) (45) (61) (82)
Net Block 1,094 1,215 1,472 1,812
Intangibles 141 146 146 146
Capital Work-in-Progress 386 721 721 721
Investments 149 309 309 309
Current Assets 1,437 1,331 1,276 1,545
Current liabilities 246 126 178 328
Net Current Assets 1,191 1,205 1,097 1,217
Mis. Exp. not written off 1 5 5 5
Total Assets 2,961 3,601 3,751 4,210
Balance Sheet (Consolidated) Rs crore
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Rs crore
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E
Profit before tax 580 282 302 479
Depreciation & Others (1) (55) 16 21
Change in Working Capital (460) 7 (137) (148)
Direct taxes paid (144) (74) (60) (96)
Cash Flow from Operations (26) 160 120 256
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (173) (136) (274) (360)
Free Cash Flow (198) 24 (154) (103)
Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments (36) (160) - -
Issue of Equity 1,349 233 44 131
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (282) 152 (100) -
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (76) (21) (21) (34)
Others (214) (208) (0) (1)
Cash Flow from Financing 740 (3) (78) 96
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 542 21 (232) (8)
Opening Cash balances 63 605 626 394
Closing Cash balances 605 626 394 387
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E
Per Share Data (Rs)
FDEPS 13.9 6.6 7.6 12.2Cash EPS 14.1 6.9 8.2 12.8
DPS 1.4 0.6 1.0 1.5
Book Value 92.2 105.5 113.5 128.0
Operating Ratio (%)
Cost / Net Sales (%) (6.9) (12.0) (5.3) (5.5)
Creditor (days) 97.1 179.7 90.7 76.1
Debtors (days)* 97.2 400.5 333.3 253.5
Debt / Equity (x) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Returns (%)
RoE 21.5 6.7 7.0 10.1
RoCE 24.8 6.5 6.7 10.9Dividend Payout 11.9 10.0 14.0 14.1
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E 10.0 21.1 18.2 11.4
P/E (Cash EPS) 9.8 20.3 17.0 10.9
P/BV 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1
EV / EBITDA 6.3 16.7 14.5 8.4
Note: * ARIL's debtors of Rs241cr includes receivables of Rs115cr for the
property sold to IIPM. The money will be received by ARIL after six years
during which time it will be paid 15% coupon on annualised basis.
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Disclaimer
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o change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true and are for general guidance only. While
every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of information contained, the company takes no guarantee and assumes no liability for any errors or omissions of the information. No
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o arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisorso determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance
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hat may prevent Angel Broking and affiliates from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to changewithout notice. Angel Broking Limited and affiliates, including the analyst who has issued this report, may, on the date of this report, and from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy
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Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives and Investment Advisory [email protected] Mehta AVP - Investment Advisory [email protected]
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Vibha Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom) [email protected]
Jaya Agrawal Jr. Derivative Analyst [email protected]
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Sandeep Wagle Chief Technical Analyst [email protected] Joshi AVP Technical Advisory Services [email protected]
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Commodities Research Team
Amar Singh Research Head (Commodities) [email protected]
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Research & Investment Advisory: Acme Plaza, 3rd Floor A wing, M.V. Road, Opp Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059
Buy (> 15%) Accumulate(5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
Ratings (Returns) :
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Anant Raj Industries
Real Estate
Central Support & Registered Office:G-1, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC Marol, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093 Tel : 2835 8800 / 3083 7700
Regional Offices:
Sub - Broker Marketing:
Branch Off ices:
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Rajamundhry - Tel: (0883) 3941 394
Rajkot (Ardella) Tel.: (0281) 2926 568
Rajkot (University Rd.) - Tel: (0281) 2331 418
Rajkot - (Bhakti Nagar) Tel: (0281) 2361 935
Rajkot - (Indira circle) Tel : 99258 84848
Rajkot (Orbit Plaza) - Tel: (0281) 3983 485
Rajkot (Pedak Rd) - Tel: (0281) 3985 100
Rajkot (Ring Road)- Mobile: 99245 99393
Rajkot (Star Chambers) - Tel : (0281)3981 200
Rajkot - (Star Chambers) - Tel : (0281) 2225 401-3
Salem - Tel: (0427) 3941 394
Surat (Ring Road) - Tel : (0261) 3071 600
Surendranagar - Tel : (02752) 223305
Secunderabad - Tel : (040) 3093 2600
Surat (Mahidharpura) - Tel: (0261) 3092 900
Surat - (Parle Point) - Tel : (0261) 3091 400
Udaipur - Tel : (0294) 3941 394
Valsad - Tel : (02632) 645 344 / 45
Vapi -Tel: (0260) 3941 394
Varachha - (0261) 3091 500
Vijayawada - Tel :(0866) 3984 600
Warangal - Tel: (0870) 3982 200
Varanasi - Tel: (0542) 2221 129, 3058 066
Tirupur - Tel : (0421) 4302 800
Rajkot - PCG - Tel: (0281) 2490 847
Jalgaon - Tel: (0257) 2234 832
Kolkata (P. A. Shah Rd) - Tel: (033) 3001 5100
Mangalore - Tel: (0824) 3982 140
Kota - Tel : (0744) 3941 394
Madurai Tel: (0452) 3941 394
Jamnagar (Cross Word) - Tel: (0288) 2751 118
Jamnagar(Indraprashta) - Tel: (0288) 3941 394
Jodhpur - Tel: (0291) 3941 394 / 99280 24321
Junagadh - Tel : (0285) 3941 3940
Keshod - Tel: (02871) 234 027 / 233 967
Kolkata (N. S. Rd) - Tel: (033) 3982 5050
Jamnagar (Moti Khawdi) - Tel: (0288) 2846 026
Jamnagar(Madhav Plaza) - Tel: (0288) 2665 708
Kolhapur - Tel: (0231) 6632 000
Mansarovar - Tel:(0141) 3057 700/99836 74600
Mehsana - Tel: (02762) 645 291 / 92
Mysore - Tel: (0821) 4004 200 - 30
Nadiad - Tel : (0268) - 2527 230 / 34
New Delhi (Pitampura) - Tel: (011) 4751 8100
New Delhi (Nehru Place) - Tel: (011) 3982 0900
Noida - Tel : (0120) 4639 900 / 1 / 9
Palanpur - Tel: (02742) 308 060 - 63
New Delhi (Preet Vihar) - Tel: (011) 4310 6400
Nashik - (K C Complex) Tel: (0253) 3941 394
New Delhi (Bhikaji Cama) - Tel: (011) 41659711
New Delhi (Lawrence Rd.) - Tel: (011) 3262 8699 / 8799
Nagaur - Tel: (01582) 244 648
Meerut - Tel:(0121) 4015 400
Patan - Tel: (02766) 222 306
Porbandar - Tel : (0286) 3941 394
Porbandar (Kuber Life Style) - Mob.-98242 53737
Pune (Aundh) - Tel: (020) 4104 1900
Pune (Camp) - Tel: (020) 3092 1800
Pune - (kalyani Nagar) Tel: (020) 6620 6591 / 6620 6595
Pune - (Pentagon) Tel : (020) 3093 4400 / 3052 3217
Indore - Tel: (0731) 4238 600
Jaipur - (Rajapark) Tel: (0141) 3057 900 / 99833 40004
Hyderabad - A S Rao Nagar Tel: (040) 4222 2070-5
Hubli - Tel: (0836) 4267 500 - 22
Indore - Tel: (0731) 3049 400
Ajmer - Tel: (0145) 3941 394
Alwar - Tel: (0144) 3941 394 / 99833 60006
Ahmedabad(Shahibaug) -Tel: (079)3091 6800 / 01
Amreli - Tel: (02792) 228 800/231039-42
Anand - Tel : (02692) 398 400 / 3
Amritsar - Tel: (0183) 3941 394
Ankleshwar - Tel: (02646) 398 200
Baroda - Tel: (0265) 6635 100 / 2226 103
Baroda (Akota) - Tel: (0265) 2355 258 / 6499 286
Baroda (Manjalpur) - Tel: (0265) 6454280-3
Bhavnagar - Tel: (0278) 3941 394
Bengaluru - Tel: (080) 4072 0800 - 29
Bhavnagar (Shastrinagar)- Mobile: 92275 32302
Gandhinagar - Tel: (079) 4010 1010 - 31
Gajuwaka - Tel: (0891) 3987 100 - 30
Faridabad - Tel: (0129) 3984 000
Gandhidham - Tel: (02836) 237 135
Gondal - Tel: (02825) 398 200
Ghaziabad - Tel: (0120) 3980 800
Gurgaon - Tel: (0124) 3050 700
Himatnagar - Tel: (02772) 241 008 / 241 346
Bhopal - Tel :(0755) 3941 394
Bikaner - Tel: (0151) 3941 394 / 98281 03988
Chandigarh - Tel: (0172) 3092 700
Deesa - Mobile: 97250 01160
Erode - Tel: (0424) 3982 600
Bhilwara - (01482) 398 350
Ahmedabad(C. G Road) - PCG Tel: (079)39829934
Ambala - Tel: (0171) 4091 400
Dehradun - (0135): 3058 500