and developing economies pressure on inflation (%) real...

Developing Trends: July 2012

Overview

Developing Trends was prepared by the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) of the World Bank. The team is coordinated by Allen

Dennis (Overview, High-income and Trade), and is comprised of Ekaterine Vashakmadze (Industrial production, Business sentiment and Inflation),

John Baffes (Commodities), Dilek Aykut and Eung Ju Kim (Finance), Sanket Mohapatra (Exchange rate and Inflation) and Adil Islam (Annex). The

report was prepared under the guidance of Andrew Burns.

This note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group.

Recent perturbations in financial markets spilled over to the real economy, slowing economic activity globally, as economic uncertainty prompted consumers and investors to hold back on spending, thereby slowing activity in the real economy. Even excluding the Euro Area, where output has been contracting, global industrial production decelerated to a 2.0% annu-alized growth in the three months ending in May compared to 7.9% the previous month. Similarly global trade flows, which in general are more sensitive to such demand shocks than industrial production, contracted at a pace of 0.8% in the three months ending in May—a sharp decline from the 12.4% growth posted in April. Further, latest business sentiment indi-cators suggest that the deceleration in economic activity is likely to continue through July. Indeed the Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Manager’s Index published by JP Morgan and Markit in July recorded an easing of overall economic activity, with activity in the manufacturing sector contracting.

The deceleration of economic activity across regions is however mixed. With the Euro Area being at the epi-center of the recent financial market flare-up, not surprisingly, economic activity there has taken the hardest hit with the contraction in industrial production deepen-ing in May at an annualized pace of minus 7.1% (3m/3m, saar) - its weakest in six months and well below its historical average growth of 2.3%. Headwinds from Europe have also hit the US, with the pace of industrial production slowing to 5.9%. However, thanks to ongoing Tsu-nami-related reconstruction works and government incentivized boosts to consumption eco-nomic activity in Japan is recovering modestly leading to a recent upgrade in growth fore-casts by both the Bank of Japan and the IMF. Even though on a trend basis activity is decoup-led, business cycles between developing and high-income countries remain highly synchro-

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-10

0

10

20

30

40

2010M09 2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05

High-income Imports

Developing Imports

High-income Industrial production

Developing Industrial production

Real economy slows down for both high-income

and developing economies(volume percent change, 3m/3m saar)

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Datastream

(%)

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2006M02 2007M05 2008M08 2009M11 2011M02 2012M05

Developing

High-income

Weakened global demand contributes to downward

pressure on inflation(GDP-weighted year-on-year inflation)

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Datastream

July 18, 2012 page 2

Developing Trends: July 2012

nized, hence along with the slowdown in high-income industrial production, industrial produc-tion in developing countries fell sharply to 3.3% in May (3m/3m) from 8.9% in April. Indeed, with the exception of East Asia which benefitted the most from robust activity in Japan (Japan import demand was up 8.1% in May, 3m/3m), activity in all other developing regions for which data is available show a contraction in both industrial production and exports in May. With the exception of China, available business sentiment indices suggest that economic activity in devel-oping countries will remain subdued in the near term.

Although disinflationary trends prevail globally, local factors are driving-up inflation in some re-gions. The weakening of global demand in recent months has dampened industrial commodity prices, including oil prices, thereby contributing to disinflationary pressures across regions. Headline inflation rates have fallen to 1.9% on aggregate among high-income countries in June from 2.5% at the beginning of the year, and in developing countries it has fallen to 5.6% from 6.6% in January. Nonetheless, significant differences remain among regions. While headline in-flation trends in East Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe are consistent with global trends, idiosyncratic factors such as poor precipitation in India, and delayed harvest and droughts in Central Asia, political unrest-related supply shortages in some Arab Spring countries have in-creased domestic food prices, thereby leading to an inching up of headline inflation rates there in contrast to overall global trends. The duration of current global disinflationary trend remains uncertain, as barring any further major disruption activity is likely to strengthen somewhat in Q3 and Q4, supported in some developing countries by the recent loosening of policy rates (China, Brazil). Indeed, in the first half of July oil prices have firmed up by some 7%, and internationally traded grain prices have continued to tick-up, due to supply-side shocks in some major grain producing areas (see next bullet point). With food and fuel carrying a heavy weight in the devel-oping country inflation basket, the recent increases could lead to a lagged increase in inflation, particularly in those economies where output gaps are small.

Adverse weather conditions lead to spike in food commodity prices. Excessive heat in the US Midwest, drought in Central Asia, and poor monsoon conditions in India are pushing some food commodity prices to levels not seen since the 2007/08 price spike. Futures prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange continued the rally that began in mid-June, with maize and wheat prices up 60% and 45%, respectively, in less than a month. Maize and soybean prices have surpassed their 2007/08 peaks. On the positive side, the rice market remains well supplied. Separately, metals and some agricultural raw material prices continued to slide for a fourth consecutive month on concerns about global demand. Aluminum, copper, and lead prices declined 5.9%, 6.7%, and 7.9%, respectively in June—the metal price index is down 11% in the past three months and has lost one-quarter from its early 2011 peak.

Developments in the Euro Area will continue to impinge on the evolution of global economic activity in the second half of 2012. Following the massive sell-offs in May, markets have partially rebounded somewhat following the formation of a pro-bail out government in Greece and agreement by Euro Area finance ministers on aid package for ailing Spanish banks. Since early June the S&P has gained 5.3%, and CDS spreads for Spain are down 67 basis points in mid-July compared to mid-June levels. Similarly borrowing costs for Spain and Italy have come down from their early-June highs, nonetheless they remain at elevated levels. And in developing countries, bolstered by a pick-up in corporate bond issuance from Brazil and Russia, capital flows to devel-oping countries increased by 8.5% in June, a turn-around from the 45% slump in May. Nonethe-less, markets remain sensitive to changing sentiments, as evidenced in the rise in yields for Italian 10-year bonds following Moody’s downgrade of Italy’s rating by two notches above junk status.


High income (1)

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0

10

20

30

40

Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12

Euro AreaUSAJapanOther high income

High-income industrial productionPercent change, 3m/3m saar

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Datastream Last updated: Jul. 12, 2012

Euro Area contraction deepens

Spillovers from the recent escalation in financial market tensions in the Euro Area (arising from increased political uncertainty in Greece and banking sector problems in Spain) to the real economy has intensified in recent months.

Weighed down in particular by weak activity in periphery Euro Area economies, industrial pro-duction contracted for the second consecutive month by 7% (3m/3m, saar) in May. Purchasing Manager’s Indices for the Euro Area continue to point to declining output through June and at a pace of contraction last observed some three years ago. Further, with unemployment rising (11.1% in May) consumer spending has further weakened (retail sales fell by 1.2% in May).

Economic expansion in the US continues, but at a weaker pace.

In contrast to the Euro Area where industrial pro-duction is contracting, output in the US economy continues to expand, albeit at a slower pace. On a three-month moving average basis US indus-trial production growth slowed to 5.9% in May down from a 21-month peak of 6.6% in April.

With external headwinds from weak Euro Area demand, slowing economic activity elsewhere in the global economy, and softening domestic de-mand (e.g. weaker jobs growth), prospects for Q2 US GDP growth remain weak (Q1 growth was 1.9%, saar). In the July update, the IMF shaved off 0.1 percentage points from its earlier forecast on 2012 US GDP growth.

Japan continues modest economic recovery

Although its pace of output expansion deceler-ated in May, in general, real side activity in Japan over the past three months has surprised on the upside, in contrast to the growth slowdown ob-served elsewhere in high-income countries.

The strengthening of economic activity in Japan continues to be supported by post-Tsunami re-construction activity as well as a pick-up in do-mestic consumer spending particularly with auto-sales, which has benefitted from a government subsidy program as well as exports to the United States where auto sales have remained robust.

Unlike the US, where forecasts were lowered, the IMF most recently upgraded its 2012 Japan GDP growth forecasts by 0.4 percentage points to 2.4%.

Economic activity among high income countries in recent months has been mixed. Held back by negative spillovers from the ongoing debt crisis, the contraction in the Euro Area has deepened. Although economic activity has continued to expand in the US, it appears to have hit a slow patch. In contrast, supported by ro-bust investment and consumer spending economic activity in Japan has surprised on the upside.

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-10

0

10

20

30

40

50


Euro AreaUSAJapan

High-income export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


40

44

48

52

56

60

64

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12

Euro AreaUSAJapanGermanyItaly50-line

Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI)Diffusion Index

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Markit Last updated: Jul. 13, 2012


High income (2)

Equity markets have bounced back from April-May sell-off, but remain volatile; U.S. and Ger-man government bonds have performed well in July amid renewed risk-aversion.

Benchmark G-3 bourses have been rebounding since early-June, with the S&P 500 gaining 5.3%, TOPIX climbing 5.5%, and DAX significantly out-performing its G3 counterparts with a gain of about 10%. Strong gains in Germans stocks was helped by a formation of Greece’s new govern-ment and EU agreement on Spanish bank bailout.

Both U.S. Treasuries and Bunds have performed well July-to-date, with their yields approaching record lows reached in early-June, as renewed concerns about Europe’s debt crisis boosted de-mand for perceivably safe-haven assets.

Credit default swap spreads for high-beta Euro-pean economies have tightened recently, but they remain at elevated levels.

CDS spreads for Spain are currently at 556 basis points, down 67 basis points from historic high levels reached in mid-June. The latest EU agree-ment on the parameters of Spanish bank bailout was a positive development, but uncertainty re-main over the who will shoulder the burden of the bailout.

Spreads for Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Belgium have also eased between 59 and 172 basis points since mid-June. But perceived risk of Italian gov-ernment bonds has risen slightly after the coun-try’s credit rating was cut by Moody’s Investors Service on June 13th.

Borrowing costs for Spain and Italy remain ele-vated, as investors remain doubtful their finances are on a sustainable path.

Lingering concerns over Spain and Italy have kept their borrowing costs elevated, with the Spanish 10-year yields again heading toward the 7% level, which is perceived as a unsustainable level in the long-term.

In the wake of Moody’s downgrade of Italy’s credit rating to 2 notches above junk status, the yield on Italian 10-year government bonds climbed above 6% once again.

Meanwhile, debt costs for more creditworthy euro-zone countries, such as France, Germany, and the Netherland, have fallen to record lows as investors have parked their money into safe-haven government debt.

German stocks have outperformed its G3 counterparts since early-June, helped by a creation of new Greek government and EU agreement on direct recapitalization scheme of Spanish bank bailout. The cost of insur-

ing high-beta European government debt has eased, but they remain elevated. Lingering concerns over Spain’s and Italy’s finances have kept their borrowing costs elevated. Meanwhile, debt costs for more credit

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12

Italy

Spain

Yields (percent)Yields (percent)

Daily yields on 10-year government bonds since Jan 1 2011

Source: World Bank Group and Bloomberg.


Industrial Activity

Weakness in economic activity in high-income coun-tries spillover to developing regions.

Given the synchronization of business cycles be-tween high-income and developing countries, the recent weakening of economic activity in high-income countries, in particular the Euro Area, has contributed to a weakening of eco-nomic activity across developing regions. Indeed, of the six developing regions industrial output contracted in four of them, with the sharpest de-clines occurring in ECA, South Asia and LAC.

Industrial production continues expanding in East Asia and the Middle East and North Africa.

Industrial production in East Asia has continued expanding through May, albeit at a slower pace. The continued growth in East Asia output is sup-ported by the strong rebound in Thailand where activity continues to recover from last year’s flood. Further, with domestic demand holding firm in Japan, supported by Tsunami-related in-vestment spending and increased autosales, ex-ports to Japan has supported economic activity in the region notwithstanding the headwinds from elsewhere in the global economy.

Industrial production in the Middle East and North Africa has rebounded to double-digit growth rates (15% in April), as production inches towards normalization in some countries affected by earlier unrests.

...but declines in other developing regions

ECA industrial production contracted by 5% in May (3mma, saar) reflecting decline in IP in ECA’s two largest economies, Russia and Turkey.

IP decline in Brazil and recently in Mexico led to a 3% IP contraction in LAC in May. IP growth eased in Chile from, but remains robust at 6.5%.

South Asia’s IP declined to 5.2% in May (3mma, saar) reflecting a 6.3% decline in India’s IP, a turnaround from a robust 10% expansion in in Q1 of 2012. Contraction of IP deepened in Sub-Saharan Africa reflecting a 5.6 percent contrac-tion in South Africa in the three-months to May.

The recent escalation of financial market tensions, and the resultant weakness in demand has impacted activ-ity in developing countries. Indeed of the six developing regions, output contracted in four of them with the sharpest declines occurring in Europe and Central Asia, South Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. Ro-bust activity in Thailand and Japan has supported activity in East Asia, and output in the Middle East and North Africa is rebounding from earlier political unrest-related sharp declines.

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0

10

20

30

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12

East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

Regional industrial productionPercent change, 3m/3m saar


-20

-10

0

10

20

30


ChinaEAP excl . China & ThailandEurope & Central AsiaMexicoLAC excl. Mexico

EAP, ECA & LAC industrial productionPercent change, 3m/3m saar


-40

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-20

-10

0

10

20

30


Middle East & North AfricaIndiaSouth Asia excl. IndiaSouth AfricaSSA excl. South Africa

MENA, SAS & SSA industrial productionPercent change, 3m/3m saar



Business Sentiment

Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s survey indices (PMI) showed a marked deterioration in expectations for growth and production over the coming period.

The global PMI index declined to 50.9 in June from 53.1 recorded in April, to its weakest level since September 2009. This is in response to weakening momentum in the global economy.

PMI in the Euro Area declined to 44.9 in June, the lowest since 2009. Germany, which proved to be quite resilient to weak demand, recorded large decline in PMI (5 points since Feb, 2012).

PMI in June deteriorated in other G3s, including in the U.S. declining to 52.4 from 54 in May but was still the highest among G3 countries. In Japan PMI declined below 50 in response to slowing global demand indicating to a potential contrac-tion in industrial output over the coming months.

As of June 2012 developing country PMIs are below 50 in three out of six developing regions (EAP, LAC and SSA) and heading down in ECA.

PMI indices remain below 50 in East Asia and Pa-cific since November 2011 over concerns about the economic slowdown in the rest of the world which may cause Chinese growth to weaken. China’s Markit PMI dropped to 48.2 by June and the official NBS PMI also moved closer to the 50 growth-no-growth mark.

In LAC, PMI declined below 50 in Q2 of 2012 re-flecting deteriorating prospects in Brazil but also in Mexico both affected by Euro zone crisis and the slowdown in Chinese economic activity.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, the PMI fall 48.2 in June, reflecting South Africa’s deteriorating outlook.

Business sentiment remain well below its year-ago level in other regions.

PMI continues to decline in ECA but remains above 50. In Russia and in Turkey PMI dropped by over 2 points between May and June, on account of renewed concerns about the Euro Area.

South Asia is the only region where PMI is above 54. This is mainly due to India’s PMI which is often at variance with actual IP outcomes.

Business sentiment continued to deteriorate across most of the countries in June further to a negative turn-around in May in reaction to resurgence of tensions in the Euro Area and slowdown of growth in China. In-creased uncertainty and financial market volatility translated to declining industrial production growth to 0.3% in May (3mma, saar) far below than 9.4% recorded in Q1, 2012. Business sentiment has faltered in most developing regions, including in China, and stepped down markedly in the Euro Area.

40

44

48

52

56

60

64


Euro AreaUSAJapanGermanyItaly50-line



44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

J an-10 May -10 Sep-10 J an-11 May -11 Sep-11 J an-12 May -12

East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa50-line



-8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0

Europe & Central Asia

South Asia

Latin America & Caribbean

High Income Countries

Developing Countries

East Asia & Pacif ic

Sub-Saharan Africa

Euro Area

Business sentiment has weakened

January-to-date

Year-on-Year

Change in Purchasing Managers' Index

Source: World Bank and Haver Analytics


International Trade (1)

Spillovers from recent financial market perturba-tion is impacting global trade.

After registering double digit growth rates be-tween February and April 2012, global trade flows began contracting once again, with import demand falling by 0.7% (3m/3m) in May. Indeed, global trade has now contracted in seven of the last twelve months, thereby making it the weak-est period for global trade since the post-crisis recovery.

The slowdown in global trade is occurring in both high-income and developing countries. None-theless with much of the current weakness ema-nating from the Euro Area crisis, import demand from developing countries (0.1%) though much weaker than earlier months, is still stronger than demand from high income countries (-1.5%).

There is broad-based deceleration in developing country import demand, but trends differ.

With Central and Eastern European economies heavily integrated with Euro Area economies (thanks to various preferential trade agreements), not surprising spillovers from the Euro Area has significantly impacted economic activity there with trade in the region contracting by as much as 12.5% in May. However, given the relatively stronger performance of the Central Asian economies, trade in Europe and Central Asian region as an aggregate was down by only 4% in May.

Mainly on account of a slow down in the large economies in the region (India and China) trade in East Asia and South Asia contracted in May.

Besides headwinds from the external environment, domestic factors are also contributing to slow down of economic activity in some developing countries.

While weak demand in the Euro Area has contrib-uted to the slow down of activity in Asia, there are other domestic factors at play including the lagged effect of earlier monetary policy tighten-ing and in some cases, policy uncertainty con-cerning stalled reforms. .

The recent loosening of policy rates in some of the larger developing countries (China, India, Brazil) may serve to boost real side activity to the extent that capacity constraints are not breached. If this occurs, it could help offset some of the weakness coming from the weakness in import demand from the Euro Area.

With financial market tensions escalating in May , spending by consumers in high-income countries and in-vestments by firms have been held back, thus leading to a slump in global trade. This is particularly the case for the world’s largest trading bloc—European Union where unemployment is on the rise. Nonetheless, in an increasingly interlinked global economy , developing country trade has also fallen in particularly in Eastern Europe where ties to the EU are much stronger.

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WorldHigh incomeDevelopingDeveloping excl. China

Global Import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Datastream Last updated: Jun. 18, 2012

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Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12

East Asia & Pacific EAP excl. ChinaEurope & Central Asia Latin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North Africa South AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

Regional Import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


-50

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0

25

50

75

100

125

150


BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaSouth Africa

Selected country import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar



International Trade (2)

The deceleration in global exports is broad-based.

With high-income Europe trading predominantly among each other (thanks to the existence of a Customs Union) and with the Euro Area being the epi-center of the recent financial market pertur-bations , momentum growth of exports from the Euro Area has contracted in double digits for the three months ending in April and May. This has served to drag high-income exports also down by some 12% in May.

Excluding China, whose exports have surprisingly strengthened in recent months, developing coun-try exports growth has also decelerated (from 11.7% in April to 4.2% in May).

Export performance among regions is mixed.

While developing country imports continue to remain important to many developing countries, increased south-south trade in recent years has served to cushion some of the effects of the weakness in demand emanating from the Euro Area.

These effects are however dependent also on the commodity composition of exports (for example industrial goods exports are more likely to fall sharper than that of agricultural goods).

Data available in May suggest that exports in Eastern Europe, South Asia and Latin America , whereas in Central Asia and East Asia exports have sustained an expansionary trend through May.

Developments among the major developing countries diverge.

While exports for China, and Turkey continued expanding briskly through May, exports in India South Africa, Brazil and Russia contracted in May. The differences in performance may reflect coun-try’s being at different stages of the business cy-cle.

The escalation of financial market tensions and the subsequent drop in business and consumer confidence in high-income countries is likely to suppress demand there and broadly dampen de-mand for developing country exports. Hence, the current strong export performance of both China and Turkey is unlikely to be sustained in the cur-rent global economic environment.

Consistent with the weakening demand in the global economy, developing country exports (excluding China)commenced decelerating in May. The strengthening of exports in China in May most likely reflected strong imports from Japan, and is unlikely to continue given the weak global demand environment. Nonetheless, with domestic demand in developing countries relatively stronger than in high-income countries, increasing South-South trade will help to mitigate some of the weakness coming from weak E uro Area demand .

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WorldHigh incomeDevelopingDeveloping excl. China

Global export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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40

80

120

160


East Asia & PacificEAP excl. China & ThailandEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North Afr icaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

Regional export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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40

80

120

160


BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaSouth Africa

Selected country export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar



Commodities (1)

Oil prices rebound on supply concerns.

Following three months of steady declines, crude oil prices reversed course. The World Bank aver-age gained 7% during the first two weeks of July, closing above $98/bbl on July 17. Brent, the in-ternational marker, is traded at 16% premium above WTI, the US barometer.

Supply constraints played a key role to the re-bound. Iranian oil exports are in free-fall, ex-pected to decline by as much as 1.1 million bpd in July.

A strike at some Norwegian offshore oilfields re-duced Norway’s exports by 15% in early July. In Libya, tribal militias closed down exports in three of the country’s most important terminals. Mean-while North Sea oil production continues to suf-fer from operational problems.

U.S. natural gas and coal prices strengthen; LNG prices in Japan weaken.

U.S. natural gas prices jumped 17% in early July on further reduction in the inventory overhang due to rising demand for power at the expense of coal, and less gas flowing into storage.

After two years of steady increases due to lost nuclear capacity, LNG prices in Japan began weakening in July following news that the country may regain some of its nuclear capacity. Euro-pean natural gas prices also remain firm on lagged oil-linked contacts, but the share of spot gas is rising and could exceed 50% this year.

Following several months of declines due to large stocks and weak demand, coal prices strength-ened in July, a sign that the substitution by gas may be ending as gas prices rebounded.

Metals and mineral prices continue to weaken on worries about global demand.

Metals prices continued to slide for a fourth con-secutive month on concerns about global de-mand, with focus on China and Europe. Alumi-num, copper, and lead prices declined 5.9%, 6.7%, and 7.9%, respectively in June. The metal price index is down 11% in the past three months and has lost one-quarter from its early 2011 peak.

Nickel and tin have fallen most due to weak de-mand and ample supplies while for tin, a wave of new supplies is expected to come online which may put even more downward pressure on prices.

Among precious metals, silver and platinum have declined 20% and 30% since a year ago, while gold has held strong at $1,600/toz.

Oil prices gained 7% during the first half of July supply concerns, especially by Iran whose exports are ex-pected to fall by 1.1 million bpd as well as labor disputes in Norway and Libya. US natural gas prices jumped

in early July on further inventory reduction. Metals prices continue to slide on macro concerns, especially in Europe and China.

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12

BrentWest-Texas Intermediate

Oil pricesUSD per barrel


0

4

8

12

16

20

24

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

WB CrudeLNG JapanNG EuropeThermal CoalNG U.S.

Energy Prices$ per mmbtu


80

90

100

110

120

130

140


TinCopperNickelAluminium

Metal and Mineral pricesIndex, January 2012=100



Commodities (2)

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) low-ered its global grain supply assessment for the 2012/13 crop season.

In its July 11 assessment, the USDA lowered its maize global outlook compared to June, with production down 4.7% and stocks down 13.9%. Persistent drought in the Midwest United States is expected to lower yields by about 20 bushels per acre, in turn pulling the US stock-to-use ratio below 10%. Much of the production declines are likely to be associated with cuts to demand.

The outlook for wheat was lowered, marginally though, with production and stocks down 1% and 1.8%, respectively. The rice outlook was reduced marginally as well, production and stocks down 0.3% and 1.6%, respectively. On soybeans, only 40% of the US soybean crop is in good condition.

Maize and wheat prices rallied due to persistent drought conditions.

Maize futures have gained nearly 50% since mid-June, exceeding the all time high of September 2011. The rally has been driven by persistent drought conditions in the Midwest US. More than three quarters of US maize is currently in areas suffering from drought. Most of the price risks for maize are on the upside.

Wheat prices rallied as well, gaining almost 40% since June 15, approaching levels similar to the spike created by the 2010 Russian drought (and subsequent export embargo).

Contrary to maize and wheat, rice prices have been relatively stable, averaging around $600/ton. The rice market appears to be well-supplied, with most of the price risks on the downside.

Edible oil and oilseed price join the rally.

Soybean prices gained more than 25% since the beginning of June; they reached $630/ton in early July, nearing the historic highs of 2008. The oilseed and edible oil markets were already tight due to adverse weather in South America and production slowdown of palm oil in South-East Asia—due to cyclicality.

Sugar prices have come under upward pressure as well, reflecting a disappointing monsoon in India and too much rain in Brazil—these 2 countries account for one third of global sugar supplies.

Separately, raw materials prices have been stable (cotton) or declining (natural rubber) due to good supply conditions and persistent fears of further weakening in global demand.

Led by grains, agricultural prices rallied in July. Persistent drought conditions in the US pushed maize and wheat prices almost 30% and 40% up since mid-June. The USDA lowered its global grain supply assessment

for 2012/13. Soybean prices are up as well, now exceeding the historic highs of 2008. For the most part, prices of raw materials have been quite stable.

200

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WheatMaize

Grain pricesUS$ per metric tonne

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and CME Last updated: Jul. 17, 2012

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400


Soybeans [Left]Soybean oil [Right]

Edible oil and oilseed pricesUS$ per metric ton

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and CME Last updated: Jul. 17, 2012

US$ per metric ton

-16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%

Maize, production

Wheat, production

Rice, production

Maize, stocks

Wheat, stocks

Rice, stocks

USDA lowers 2012/13 global grain outlook

July/June % change

Source: US Department of Agriculture (July 11, 2012 update)


International Finance (1)

Developing country CDS spreads have tightened considerably since the beginning of June as risk-aversion eased.

CDS spreads for developing countries have tight-ened by about 77 basis points on average since the beginning of June amid improving risk appe-tite.

Meanwhile, current CDS spreads are about 60 basis points higher than the levels seen at the end of July last year.

Emerging Europe and high-beta Latin America countries (such as Argentina and Venezuela) posted the biggest tightening in their CDS spreads.

Global equities bounced back from April-May sell-off but remain volatile as the uncertainty about European debt crisis continues. The global stock markets rebounded from their

low levels in early June with mature market and developing country stocks posting gains of 6.3% and 3.5%, respectively.

The extent of recovery was limited due to the uncertainty related with the implementation of EU summit decisions and growing concerns over slowing China growth.

Developing-country equities underperformed mature markets as emerging markets suffered a seven consecutive decline through mid-July .

Stock markets across all developing regions have registered gains that pared some of earlier losses.

Stock markets in all developing regions experi-enced gains since early June, with 8.5%, 3.7% and 3% advances in Emerging Europe, Latin America, and Emerging Asia, respectively.

Emerging Europe equities significantly outper-formed other regions, with Turkey and Russia climbing 12.4% and 8.7%, respectively. Easing monetary policy by the central bank supported Turkish stocks, while rising oil prices boosted de-mand for shares in the world’s biggest energy exporter.

CDS spreads have tightened considerably since early-June as risk-aversion eased following the progress to-wards Spanish bank capitalization plans and monetary easing in several countries. As a result, global equities

have also recovered from their April-May sell-off. Emerging Europe equities outperformed other developing regions. Nevertheless, markets remain volatile on lingering concerns about European debt crisis.

July 18, 2012 page 10


Further policy easing in key developing countries as the risk seems to shift from inflation to growth.

Policy rates for key developing countries, includ-ing Brazil, China, and India, were cut over the past few months as policy concerns shift from in-flation to growth.

In particular, Brazil continued to respond aggres-sively to growth concerns and cut the policy rate to a record low of 8% in July, bringing the cumu-lative monetary easing to 300 basis points this year.

China also cut its policy rate twice between June and July by 56 basis points. Recent rate cuts were following the cut in bank reserve requirements and new fiscal measures.

Flows to emerging-market equity and bond Mu-tual funds picked up since mid-June amid easing risk aversion.

Emerging-market equity funds posted inflows of about $1.1 billion between mid-June and mid-July, rebounding from $8.4 billion outflows for the week of April 11 to June 6.

Meanwhile, investors put about $3.9 billion into developing-country bond funds during the same period, bringing year-to-date flows to $17.5 bil-lion.

The rally of emerging-market funds can be partly ascribed to growing expectations of further stimulus in the U.S. and Europe and China’s rate cuts.

During the first half of 2012, gross capital flows were about 23% below compared to the like pe-riod of 2011. Gross capital flows to developing countries re-

bounded slightly in June, up 8.5% from previous month, as emerging market shrug off concerns over global growth and the euro-zone debt crisis.

The rebound in June was mostly due to a pick-up in bond issuance. Equity flows and bank lending remained subdued in the month.

Total capital flows during the first half of 2012 stood about 23% compared to the first half of 2011, though bond flows were down just 3.8%.

Regionally, Latin America accounted for the lion’s share of capital flows benefiting from strong bond issuance.

Several key developing countries cut borrowing costs in the past months as policy concerns shift from infla-tion to growth. Flows to developing-country equity and bond mutual funds picked up recently amid easing risk aversion. Over the first half of 2012, gross capital flows to developing countries were 23% below their level during the same period of last year.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Bond IssuanceEquity IssuanceSyndicated Bank Loans

Gross Capital Flows to Dev eloping Regions$ bil l ion, 3-mon. m.a.


-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

Jan

-10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-

10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0

Jan

-11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-

11

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1

Jan

-12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Inflows to EM bond funds Inflows to EM equity funds

Weekly flows to developing-country equity and bond funds

$ million

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


Brazil Romania South Africa

Philippines China India

Central bank policy rates

Percent

Source: Bloomberg and the World Bank staff

July 18, 2012 page 11


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14



International Equity Issuance$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14



International Bond Issuance$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLat in America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

Source: Deallogic, DEC Prospects Group Last updated: May. 15, 2012

Bank Lending$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)

June equity flows were down slightly on account of China.

Equity placements (a combination of IPOs and follow-on issuance) fell slightly to $5.2 billion in June because of a drop in flows to China.

As a result, year-to-date equity flows were down about 34% compared to the like period of 2011, with IPO markets remaining subdued.

A total of 59 IPO deals raised $8.2 billion so far this year, compared with 104 deals in the like pe-riod of 2011, when $21.4 billion was raised.

Bond issuance activity picked up in June, after faltering considerably in previous month.

Bond flows bounced back in June as companies from Brazil and Russia—mostly in the finance and oil & gas industries—issued increasing number of international bonds.

The easing since April came after the record issu-ance by developing-country borrowers (especially Latin American corporates) as firms took advantage of the low funding costs and ro-bust investor appetite for emerging market debt.

Preliminary figures suggest bond flows remain strong in July, with Bulgaria coming to the sover-eign bond market for the first time in a decade.

The first-half volume of syndicated bank loans is down 39% compared to the first half of 2011, due to a sharp drop in flows to SSA and MENA.

Syndicated bank lending to developing countries in June was 33% lower than its May level with the largest decline in Emerging Europe, especially Turkey.

Year-to-date flows were about 39% lower than the like period of 2011, with sharp declines in lending to SSA and MENA (down by 65% and 63%, respectively).

Though overall syndicated loan volumes remain subdued, they have been surprisingly held up well in recent months, the declining supply from Euro-pean banks was somewhat offset by the pick up in lending by developing market banks.

Equity flows fell slightly in June reflecting the lower activity in China, and year-to-date flows were down 34% compared to the same period of 2011. On the contrary, bond flows rebounded last month with the rise in cor-porate bond issuance in Brazil and Russia, mainly in the finance and oil & gas sectors. The first half volume of bank lending was down 39% from last year, mostly due to faltering flows to SSA and MENA.

July 18, 2012 page 12

Exchange Rates

Euro Area policy actions provided temporary res-pite, but euro has continued to weaken

The successful Greek government formation and agreement on policy actions at the Eurogroup Brussels summit (including direct aid to Spanish banking sector and a Europe-wide banking super-visor) provided temporary support to the euro.

But weakening Euro Area growth, heightened investors’ nervousness, falling inflation, and monetary easing have combined to accentuate the downward trend in the euro, with the Euro down 7.5 percent vis-à-vis US dollar since May 1.

The US dollar and Japanese yen have continued to benefit from safe haven status, despite a weak labor market and waning business sentiment in the US, and a likely deceleration of the robust growth experienced in the first quarter in Japan.

Developing countries’ currencies remain weaker after steep depreciation during resurgence of Euro Area tensions in May and decline in interna-tional commodity prices

A broad-based slowdown in economic activity, weaker capital flows, and US dollar strength have maintained downside pressures on EM currencies.

Trade-weighted real effective exchange rates of commodity exporters such as Brazil, Russia and South Africa declined 7 percent or more between March and June together with the weakening of commodity prices. But those of Chile and Peru rose amid strong growth and low inflation.

Policy actions in developed countries led to oil and commodity prices edging higher in July, giv-ing support to commodity exporters’ currencies.

Emerging market exchange rates are likely to remain under downward pressure as global eco-nomic activity slows

Along with weaker commodity prices, interest rate cuts and weakening of capital inflows kept the Brazilian real depreciated. The Indian rupee remains depreciated against the US dollar due to policy concerns and weaker capital inflows.

By contrast, the Mexican peso, Chilean peso and Turkish lira have risen 8.2%, 6.2% and 2.8% re-spectively from robust (albeit slowing) domestic activity and continued capital inflows as investors searched for yield in markets with relatively good growth prospects amid global weakness.

Weak global demand, US dollar strength and lower and more volatile capital flows are likely to see EM currencies remaining under pressure.

A temporary relaxation of tensions following Greek government formation and the Eurogroup’s Brussels Sum-mit provided a brief respite for the euro; but weakening economic activity, continuing debt crisis, and flight to safe havens saw the euro continue its downward trend. Developing countries’ currencies fell during resur-gence of Euro Area tensions in May and continue to remain depreciated (with a few exceptions), reflecting heightened investors’ risk aversion, weaker capital flows, US dollar strength, and country-specific factors.

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12

USD/EuroUSD/YenEuro/Swiss franc

High income nominal exchange ratesIndex, Jan 2011 = 100


85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125


Brazil ChinaIndia IndonesiaRussia TurkeySouth Afr ica

Dev eloping real effectiv e exchange rateIndex, Jan 2010 = 100


88

92

96

100

104

108

112


Brazil ChinaIndia MexicoMalaysia RussiaTurkey South Afr ica

Dev eloping nominal exchange ratesIndex, Jan 2012 = 100


July 18, 2012 page 13

Inflation

Despite monetary policy easing, inflation has moder-ated in both high income and developing countries due to slowdown in economic activity.

In high-income countries, inflation has dropped below 1% in June (3m/3m saar), the lowest price increase since September 2010, reflecting weaker growth and the ongoing European debt crisis. Japan, where CPI moved from “deflation” in H2, 2011 to 2.2% increase in Q1, 2012, experi-enced lower inflation of 1.1% in May.

In developing countries, inflation has declined to 5.7% in June (3mma, saar) helped by easing of oil prices. Lower food inflation was contributed to moderating price pressures across developing regions until February, after which food prices and supply side constraints resulted in a rapid increase in several countries in MENA, South Asia and Sub Saharan Africa.

Slowdown in global demand and decline in commod-ity prices are moderating inflationary pressures in EAP, ECA and LAC

China’s inflation eased from average 5% (3m/3m saar) in 2011 to 2.5% in June, despite interest rate cuts. In EAP excluding China, CPI trended to 4.2% in June, with Indonesia on the high side (6.2%) and Malaysia low (0.7%).

CPI inflation declined in ECA from 11% (3m/3m saar) in Dec 2011 to an average of 5.7% in H1 of 2012, but rose to 6.1% in June reflecting upswing in food prices in Russia due to a delayed harvest.

LAC inflation continued to ease from an average 7% (3m/3m saar) in 2011 to 4.6% in June 2012, led by Brazil (4%) and Mexico (2.6%). There is an indication of deflation in Chile of -0.2% (saar) in June.

Inflation levels in MENA, South Asia and Sub Saharan Africa continue to remain high due to food price in-creases and supply side bottlenecks.

Inflation momentum remains high in South Asia of 18.5% in May (3m/3m saar) due to persistently high food inflation and supply-side bottlenecks.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, inflation eased slightly to 8.7% in May (3m/3m saar), after falling below 10% in April for first time since November 2011, partly in response to monetary tightening in some countries. But inflation momentum remains high.

Inflation momentum remains high across many MENA countries due to high food prices. Algeria and Iran saw particularly high upswings in infla-tion related to reduction of price subsidies, but also due to international sanctions in the latter.

A broad-based slowdown in economic activity and easing of oil prices are contributing to moderation of infla-tionary pressures in high-income countries and in developing regions, in particular EAP, ECA and LAC, in Q2, 2012. However inflation momentum remains high in MENA, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, partly due to increase in food prices and supply side bottlenecks. Further monetary easing and pick up in growth may gen-erate price pressures in H2.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


Developing CPI inflationHigh-income CPI inflation

Dev eloping and high income inflationPercent change, 3m/3m saar

Source: World Bank Prospects Group Last updated: Jul. 17, 2012

0

4

8

12

16

20

24


Middle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSouth AfricaSSA excl. South Africa

MENA, SAS & SSA inflationPercent change, 3m/3m saar


0

2

4

6

8

10

12


ChinaEAP excl. ChinaEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & Caribbean

EAP, ECA & LAC inflationPercent change, 3m/3m saar



Average 2011 2012 20121999-08 2009 2010 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May

World 2.8 -8.2 9.1 4.4 7.1 0.0 3.2 1.3 1.9 -1.3 -0.7 1.3High - in come cou n tries 1.4 -12.8 8.2 2.8 5.2 -2.2 2.2 0.1 1.9 -2.2 -0.4 1.4

Industrial countries 1.4 -13.1 7.8 2.5 4.3 -2.1 2.3 -0.3 1.4 -2.1 -0.3 1.3

United States 1.3 -11.4 5.4 4.1 5.5 2.0 3.3 5.3 0.8 -0.1 1.1 -0.1

Japan 1.1 -21.5 16.2 -2.4 -1.4 -15.3 14.6 -2.6 2.2 -1.6 -1.2 0.9

Euro Area 1.2 -14.6 7.2 3.3 6.0 1.1 -3.3 -7.4 0.4 -2.8 -1.4 3.2

United Kingdom -0.4 -9.1 1.8 -1.2 -2.2 -4.6 -0.9 -6.4 2.7 -4.3 -0.5 ..

Other high income 2.1.. -13.1 7.8 2.5 -2.1 2.3 -0.3 8.6 1.4 -2.1 -0.3 1.3

Hong Kong (China) .. -8.4 3.4 0.8 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5 -4.3 0.1 0.3 .. ..

Singapore 6.3 -4.3 29.7 7.7 45.7 -16.9 -2.0 21.4 8.0 -4.5 -5.7 6.0

Taiwan (China) 4.7 -8.2 28.8 5.2 14.1 -17.5 -9.5 -2.0 28.6 -10.7 -1.4 1.6

Dev elopin g cou n tries -210.3 1.2 10.7 7.3 10.5 3.8 4.8 3.3 1.9 0.1 -1.3 1.1East Asia and Pacific 20.8 8.5 14.5 11.6 16.7 8.2 10.0 4.7 1.8 1.8 -2.1 1.1

China 15.2 11.2 15.5 13.7 19.5 9.9 10.5 11.5 0.9 2.6 -2.5 1.1

Indonesia 3.4 1.3 4.7 4.0 3.7 10.8 7.9 -6.6 2.7 -1.3 1.6 -0.5

Thailand 8.6 -7.2 14.5 -9.4 -7.7 -9.4 13.0 -80.0 11.2 -2.7 1.0 5.9

Malaysia 5.8 -7.6 7.2 1.2 5.7 -8.2 4.4 8.3 7.5 -5.4 -0.3 1.5

Europe and Central Asia 5.1 -10.1 9.5 5.9 8.6 -1.9 1.1 7.0 1.4 -2.4 -0.8 1.5Russian Federation 5.5 -9.5 8.3 4.8 5.8 3.6 0.4 3.3 2.9 -3.7 -0.5 2.0Turkey 3.7 -10.3 13.1 9.1 17.4 -10.8 2.3 19.6 1.0 -2.0 -1.7 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 1.5 -6.9 6.7 3.2 5.7 1.8 -0.1 -1.6 1.2 -1.2 -0.9 0.5Brazil 3.3 -7.3 10.6 0.4 2.8 -0.3 -2.7 -6.6 1.2 -0.8 -0.4 -0.9Mexico .. -7.7 6.2 4.0 6.1 1.9 2.7 3.0 1.1 -1.5 -0.7 1.2Argentina 2.7 -5.0 8.8 4.4 6.8 7.4 -1.6 -0.8 2.3 -1.8 -3.5 0.8Colombia 2.7 -5.2 4.6 4.9 11.2 2.7 3.4 0.1 1.1 -2.1 -2.4 ..

Middle East and North Africa 1.6 -2.8 1.6 -9.8 -20.6 -17.1 -3.3 9.8 0.4 2.1 1.6 ..Saudi Arabia 1.0 -10.9 7.9 6.3 13.2 -2.4 16.0 10.2 0.3 2.1 -0.3 ..Iran 1.1 -0.3 1.1 -0.6 3.4 -0.8 -3.4 -6.5 -1.5 -1.3 -4.4 ..Egypt .. -3.4 10.0 -6.4 -50.1 48.7 1.6 17.5 1.2 -1.0 0.9 -2.6Algeria 3.9 -7.0 -2.8 0.0 4.1 -1.0 -0.9 -1.9 0.1 0.1 -0.2 ..

South Asia 6.8 -0.2 9.9 5.0 11.9 -4.4 -2.9 0.8 3.1 -3.9 -1.0 2.2

India 6.7 0.2 9.7 4.8 12.4 -3.3 -4.7 1.3 3.1 -3.5 -1.0 2.4

Pakistan 6.7 -4.8 11.0 6.4 4.5 -16.9 8.4 0.9 4.4 -9.0 -1.4 1.1

Sri Lanka .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 0.7 4.2 4.0 6.4 10.6 -3.5 -2.6 4.5 -3.4 1.2 ..

South Africa 2.5 -13.0 5.0 2.5 12.0 -7.2 -1.7 6.9 3.6 -4.5 0.0 2.6

Nigeria .. 2.0 11.2 2.9 5.0 14.4 -3.5 -25.4 3.3 1.4 3.0 ..Memo:

OECD 1.5 -12.8 7.8 2.7 4.6 -2.1 2.2 0.1 1.4 -2.1 -0.3 1.3

Developing excl. China 3.5 -4.8 7.2 2.3 3.7 -1.1 0.0 -3.4 2.7 -2.1 -0.2 1.2

Developing oil exporters 0.8 -5.1 5.2 1.0 0.4 -1.5 1.4 2.3 2.6 -1.8 0.2 0.9

Dev. non-oil exporters -213.7 4.2 13.0 9.7 14.6 5.8 6.0 3.7 1.6 0.8 -1.8 1.2

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are

in percent change over previous month a/)

a In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing,

mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often

manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.


Weight Average 2011 2012 20121995 1999-08 2009 2010 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May

Real GDP

High - in come cou n tries .. 2.3 -3.7 3.1 1.5 0.6 3.1 1.6 2.2 .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries .. 2.3 -3.7 2.9 1.5 0.6 3.1 1.6 2.2 .. .. .. ..

United States .. 2.6 -3.5 3.0 1.7 1.3 1.8 3.0 1.9 .. .. .. ..

Japan .. 1.3 -5.5 4.5 -0.7 -1.7 7.8 0.1 4.7 .. .. .. ..

Euro Area .. 2.0 -4.4 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.6 -1.4 0.1 .. .. .. ..

United Kingdom .. 2.6 -4.0 1.8 0.8 -0.4 2.4 -1.4 -1.3 .. .. .. ..

Real merch an dis e imports

High - in come cou n tries .. -16.5 10.9 7.2 11.2 -8.1 -16.0 12.4 4.7 -5.0 0.1 3.2

Industrial countries .. -16.8 10.1 7.5 13.8 -7.9 -17.6 12.1 2.9 -4.2 -0.1 3.5

United States 8.2 -16.5 14.9 3.8 2.1 -5.8 0.3 17.0 1.9 -0.6 1.3 2.8

Japan 5.2 -4.0 17.9 14.7 23.5 17.9 -6.0 9.9 -1.8 -4.6 5.8 6.4

Euro Area .. -15.2 3.1 6.7 20.3 -13.7 -28.4 5.4 4.0 -5.4 -1.3 3.0

United Kindgom 6.3 -26.0 9.6 5.7 -4.0 -17.4 0.8 12.9 1.8 -0.7 -1.6 ..

Other high income 5.5 2.9 10.1 7.5 13.8 -7.9 -17.6 12.1 23.4 -12.9 2.7 -0.1

Hong Kong (China) 6.6 -9.7 18.7 4.3 -18.8 -3.8 5.2 6.9 38.7 -19.3 0.3 4.0

Singapore 5.2 -12.7 16.0 1.3 6.6 -3.2 0.8 27.1 11.6 -8.4 -2.7 7.3

Taiwan (China) 6.2 -19.4 35.5 4.0 -10.0 -25.6 -9.9 10.3 14.5 -5.5 8.2 -8.2

I mport Prices

High - in come cou n tries .. -9.6 6.5 9.2 3.1 1.3 9.3 3.8 0.0 0.4 -1.1 -0.8

Industrial countries .. -9.9 6.8 9.2 3.4 0.5 9.3 3.5 0.2 0.0 -1.2 -0.9

United States -0.1 -11.4 6.9 10.9 8.4 0.5 9.0 2.9 -1.8 -0.1 -1.3 -1.0

Japan -1.4 -25.2 7.1 7.4 2.0 -8.2 10.7 8.4 1.0 5.1 -4.5 -2.9

Euro Area .. -10.7 8.3 9.5 1.2 1.2 7.6 4.7 0.9 -0.4 -1.0 -0.2

United Kindgom -1.1 2.2 5.8 7.9 12.8 15.5 -5.5 5.0 0.8 -0.7 -1.1 ..

Other high income -1.0 8.7 6.8 9.2 3.4 0.5 9.3 3.5 -5.1 5.6 -0.1 -0.7

Hong Kong (China) -1.2 -1.3 5.1 7.4 7.7 6.5 4.2 2.9 -0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1

Singapore -0.3 -11.8 9.2 16.1 2.1 -2.7 1.2 19.3 3.5 -2.1 -4.0 -0.9

Taiwan (China) -1.6 -9.5 7.0 7.7 7.4 -0.6 14.9 -2.7 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.0

Real effectiv e ex ch an ge rates a

Euro Area 33.5 1.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 5.5 4.3 0.4 -2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 -2.0

United States 14.4 -1.1 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -8.5 -6.7 0.5 1.5 0.8 1.8 2.8 2.8

Japan 7.4 -1.2 9.8 9.8 9.8 1.2 0.5 1.9 1.2 2.1 3.1 4.1 4.1

United Kindgom 5.4 -2.4 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 0.8 -1.7 2.0 1.7 1.6 2.6 3.6 3.6

Canada 3.5 -0.6 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 2.5 2.6 -1.6 -1.4 2.2 3.2 4.2 4.2

Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -2.7 -5.5 -5.5 -5.5 -6.4 -4.9 0.3 2.4 -0.8 0.3 2.0 0.8

Korea, Rep. 2.5 -1.7 -15.9 -15.9 -15.9 1.9 4.8 -0.8 0.1 1.4 0.9 -1.4 -0.4

Singapore 2.3 1.3 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.7 6.3 2.5 3.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Taiwan (China) 2.1 -2.3 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -0.4 0.6 -1.8 -3.3 0.4 0.9 -0.4 -0.2

Switzerland 1.7 0.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 12.2 13.3 3.6 1.6 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

a/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the

period in question.

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates

except monthly figures, which are m/m change)


Average 2011 2012 20121999-08 2009 2010 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar Apr May June

Policy RatesUnited States 3.44 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12Japan 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30

Euro Area .. 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

United Kingdom 4.80 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

Ten year bon dUnited States 4.70 3.67 3.26 3.21 3.21 2.43 2.05 2.04 2.17 2.05 1.80 ..

Japan 1.49 1.47 1.33 1.15 1.14 1.03 1.02 0.96 0.97 0.91 0.85 ..

Euro Area .. 4.36 4.03 3.79 4.47 4.28 4.20 3.65 3.29 3.39 3.53 3.41

United Kindgom 4.77 4.50 3.60 3.53 3.42 2.69 2.28 2.14 2.25 2.12 1.88 1.67

Spreads (Bas is poin ts ) b ,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..East Asia and Pacific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..China 82 126 77 193 162 199 271 271 246 262 270 211

Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Phillippines .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Malaysia 129 230 140 145 128 164 179 176 166 178 182 168

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation 262 443 229 259 209 276 344 307 284 299 310 276Turkey 404 367 221 260 209 278 350 352 314 336 335 293

Latin America and Caribbean 522 522 345 353 325 369 408 364 347 377 390 368

Brazil 551 306 202 195 173 203 231 202 186 212 219 205

Mexico 206 302 187 186 163 199 227 209 190 212 220 192

Argentina 2920 1198 690 687 573 729 910 834 966 1093 1129 1075

Colombia 370 329 189 168 148 175 197 174 147 174 173 152

Middle East and North Africa .. 578 346 369 331 397 439 446 426 459 492 485Egypt .. 134 173 371 328 362 477 542 531 559 571 536

South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Pakistan .. 1186 624 922 783 930 1171 1274 1143 1082 1122 1095Sri Lanka .. 1066 369 358 318 376 440 450 421 462 497 456

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 172 301 167 195 168 203 250 241 216 238 236 201

Gros s in flow s e

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. 353 492 0 151 97 78 118 44 43 24 27

East Asia and Pacific .. 91 144 0 43 25 14 25 12 20 6 10

Europe and Central Asia .. 72 105 0 37 25 21 24 11 12 7 6

Latin America and Carribean .. 137 161 0 46 32 35 53 15 8 6 8

Middle East and North Africa .. 4 13 0 3 2 1 2 2 1 0 0

South Asia .. 31 53 0 13 7 4 10 4 1 2 2Sub-Saharan Africa .. 18 15 0 9 6 3 4 1 1 2 1

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of daily figures. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of monthly figures.

b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.

c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.

d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.

e/In billions of US dollars.


Avg 2011 2012 201200-09 2009 2010 2011 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Mar Apr May Jun

En ergy .. 114.4 144.7 188.1 187.2 186.6 197.6 187.2 208.4 201.1 185.7 163.5

Coal, Australia 10.7 150.9 207.8 254.0 253.3 239.7 252.0 253.3 220.7 213.4 198.4 177.8

Crude oil, average 13.1 115.7 148.0 194.8 193.1 193.2 206.1 193.1 220.6 212.9 195.0 169.9

Natural gas , Europe 15.1 137.7 131.0 166.2 172.0 180.6 162.9 172.0 189.2 180.5 184.0 181.6

Non -en ergy .. 142.0 173.9 209.9 212.3 188.8 217.2 212.3 195.5 194.9 190.0 183.2

Agricu ltu re .. 149.2 170.4 209.0 209.7 190.7 215.1 209.7 195.5 195.7 192.4 187.0

Bev erages .. 157.5 182.1 208.2 210.7 183.7 218.7 210.7 165.2 163.5 165.7 159.1

Cocoa 9.8 187.8 203.7 193.7 197.3 160.5 199.8 197.3 153.4 147.4 150.4 147.2

Coffee, arabica 3.3 125.2 170.6 236.0 236.0 211.7 251.4 236.0 175.2 166.7 160.8 146.9

Coffee, robusta 1.0 147.5 155.8 216.0 218.2 193.7 235.6 218.2 204.9 201.4 211.4 209.1

Food .. 155.7 169.6 210.1 212.6 197.6 212.4 212.6 209.7 210.6 206.2 203.7

Fats an d oils .. 165.0 184.5 222.7 220.3 202.5 227.1 220.3 226.8 237.6 231.4 223.9

Palm oil 4.6 161.8 213.4 266.6 255.6 242.8 271.7 255.6 273.2 279.8 257.1 236.4

Soybean meal 10.4 190.2 176.5 185.6 186.0 166.3 186.4 186.0 196.4 216.0 231.4 234.6

Soybeans 8.0 159.1 163.7 196.8 201.4 177.5 202.7 201.4 197.7 209.3 208.6 206.1

Grain s .. 169.2 171.8 238.5 245.4 229.3 245.8 245.4 229.7 224.6 227.9 228.8

Maize 6.3 167.7 188.4 295.6 306.2 272.9 316.8 306.2 284.5 277.7 272.9 270.9

Rice, Thailand, 5% 8.4 193.9 170.8 189.7 198.3 209.6 172.3 198.3 191.4 191.3 209.8 210.0

Wheat, US, HRW 7.2 147.1 146.8 207.6 207.2 183.6 222.7 207.2 186.3 174.8 173.5 181.3

Oth er food .. 131.3 148.2 167.8 172.9 162.2 162.8 172.9 169.1 162.4 153.4 154.6

Bananas, US 8.5 140.5 144.0 160.6 158.1 157.7 166.6 158.1 189.7 170.9 158.2 158.3

Sugar, world 4.2 183.6 215.4 263.0 278.6 244.5 241.2 278.6 243.8 230.1 210.5 207.1

Raw materials .. 129.0 166.3 206.7 201.9 177.8 219.7 201.9 176.6 175.7 172.4 160.6

Cotton ("A" Index) 1.7 113.6 187.6 273.5 213.1 187.6 317.8 213.1 180.3 181.0 160.4 148.8

Rubber, Singapore 11.8 129.1 245.6 324.1 312.7 242.3 356.3 312.7 264.0 258.4 250.5 215.0

Sawnwood, Malaysia 3.0 122.2 128.6 142.5 146.4 138.3 145.5 146.4 134.4 135.9 135.3 130.9

Fertilizers .. 203.8 187.2 267.0 290.9 284.2 262.6 290.9 263.3 275.7 274.4 259.9

Triple superphosphate 5.2 127.8 189.5 267.2 277.1 280.0 270.1 277.1 219.0 219.0 240.7 240.7

Metals an d min erals .. 120.3 179.6 205.5 208.7 174.0 216.4 208.7 187.7 184.1 175.5 166.6

Aluminum 2.0 87.7 114.5 126.5 126.4 110.3 137.5 126.4 115.1 108.0 105.8 99.6

Copper 12.6 140.0 204.8 240.0 244.2 204.2 249.3 244.2 230.3 225.3 216.3 201.8

Gold 13.3 218.7 275.3 352.8 382.4 378.1 338.9 382.4 376.8 370.7 357.2 359.4

Nickel 9.3 99.4 147.9 155.4 149.4 124.7 165.2 149.4 126.6 121.7 115.8 112.2

Memo:

Cru de Oil (US$ ) 13.1 61.8 79.0 104.0 103.1 103.2 110.1 103.1 117.8 113.7 104.1 90.7

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export

values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.

b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.



Ex port v alu es

Dev elopin g cou n tries 11.1 -22.5 30.0 26.3 82.5 -38.7 4.5 19.3 2.0 -0.4 -2.2 3.6

East Asia and Pacific 18.5 -16.4 31.0 19.8 19.0 4.7 -5.4 13.0 2.2 2.4 -0.3 5.3China 22.8 -16.4 31.6 20.2 21.9 2.3 3.5 6.7 -3.4 7.6 -0.4 6.5Indonesia .. -15.4 35.8 29.0 49.4 1.1 -18.1 5.8 4.8 -2.5 -2.0 -2.1Thailand 12.6 -14.3 28.2 17.0 0.5 11.8 -52.1 56.4 8.8 -2.4 0.8 7.4

Europe and Central Asia 18.9 -32.6 26.9 28.9 26.7 -11.0 25.8 24.2 2.0 -2.5 -2.7 1.4

Russian Federation 20.3 -36.2 32.9 30.0 40.6 -18.0 44.6 12.0 1.8 -4.4 -3.3 1.3Turkey 17.2 -23.0 11.1 18.7 11.1 6.3 -6.6 44.8 7.9 -1.4 -0.1 4.4

Latin America and Caribbean 8.3 -20.0 28.1 22.5 18.6 0.4 4.9 15.4 2.5 -4.8 -2.0 1.5

Brazil 14.5 -22.4 31.6 27.0 31.4 -2.4 4.1 -0.1 4.4 -3.2 -4.9 3.1

Mexico 9.5 -21.3 29.9 17.1 5.1 0.3 6.4 29.8 4.6 -8.0 3.4 2.1

Argentina 10.2 -20.3 21.8 23.0 30.1 12.8 -8.7 2.7 -0.3 -2.4 -8.6 2.8

Middle East and North Africa 21.8 -36.3 27.3 12.1 -10.9 -18.8 27.3 38.9 0.8 2.6 .. ..Saudi Arabia 21.7 -43.1 34.8 41.4 10.0 14.2 30.3 23.0 1.3 -0.4 .. ..Iran .. -37.6 34.1 30.0 22.3 -25.5 55.6 -11.5 -6.9 3.4 .. ..Egypt 23.3 -8.6 14.4 15.0 43.1 -10.3 14.2 -18.6 3.8 -10.3 -6.9 ..

South Asia 15.8 -12.6 32.4 101.5 5514.4 -98.8 24.5 30.5 0.8 -6.9 -14.8 -1.2

India 18.4 -13.9 35.7 116.2 8631.4 -99.3 35.7 34.5 0.4 -5.9 -18.1 -1.0

Pakistan 9.1 -13.0 21.6 19.6 -13.6 -30.2 -32.6 31.9 13.4 -10.9 11.7 -3.5

Bangladesh 11.6 6.1 14.9 40.0 61.8 3.3 -17.3 -16.8 7.0 -8.7 6.7 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 16.8 -31.0 35.4 26.2 26.2 -12.6 -6.3 37.0 1.2 1.0 .. ..South Africa 11.8 -22.6 30.2 19.1 6.7 -7.0 -15.5 14.9 -1.5 -7.6 -4.8 6.3Nigeria 21.0 -40.0 49.6 38.9 38.6 -23.2 -15.5 53.8 -1.4 16.9 .. ..

Ex port prices b,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. -15.6 9.8 13.9 -0.4 0.7 3.6 3.4 -0.1 0.1 -1.9 -0.7

East Asia and Pacific .. -8.7 5.4 10.5 2.9 3.5 0.4 -3.1 -1.8 1.1 -0.5 -0.1

China 0.0 -8.0 3.9 9.8 2.6 3.3 2.0 -3.6 -3.8 2.1 -0.1 0.0

Indonesia .. -21.0 14.5 17.6 6.1 -0.5 -0.3 -9.1 2.8 0.2 -2.4 0.1

Thailand 5.7 0.3 9.2 5.7 3.6 2.0 -1.6 0.6 -0.3 1.1 0.0 -0.2

Europe and Central Asia .. -23.7 13.1 20.5 10.4 -8.6 12.4 7.6 1.2 -1.5 -3.8 -2.0Russian Federation .. -28.9 17.8 25.7 12.8 -9.4 20.5 12.8 2.0 -1.9 -4.7 -2.3Turkey 3.8 -16.1 4.9 11.6 11.5 -9.5 -10.2 3.2 1.6 -0.6 -1.8 -0.9

Latin America and Caribbean 1.0 -14.2 14.4 16.4 6.0 -2.5 -7.6 1.7 1.7 -0.6 -3.7 -0.4

Brazil 5.4 -15.1 12.6 15.9 3.0 -3.6 -7.1 -6.1 1.2 1.2 -2.5 0.5

Mexico 5.8 -14.4 12.2 14.4 9.0 -3.1 -5.8 9.2 2.2 -1.5 -4.6 -0.4

Argentina 5.3 -12.1 5.7 16.4 2.9 7.5 -9.3 -8.4 -0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 Middle East and North Africa .. -30.8 18.1 18.6 -27.5 -8.5 30.4 68.4 6.8 -0.7 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 23.8 -43.9 36.1 33.9 90.7 -13.6 9.0 27.8 1.7 1.5 .. ..Iran .. -34.2 26.3 29.7 -8.1 -7.6 33.0 37.5 9.3 -4.4 .. ..Egypt .. -22.3 12.0 20.0 10.3 -4.7 7.4 2.7 0.1 0.9 -2.6 ..

South Asia 2.4 -11.7 10.0 10.9 -12.9 20.2 -1.6 -3.8 0.2 -0.1 -1.7 -2.4India 4.3 -14.1 10.2 13.7 -7.5 14.1 -1.5 -3.4 0.0 -0.4 -2.4 -2.5Pakistan 0.5 8.7 18.3 20.0 20.2 8.2 7.1 -24.8 -0.6 2.6 1.0 1.5Bangladesh -6.7 -6.7 3.4 9.0 2.2 3.4 2.7 -4.3 0.6 0.9 -0.6 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. -25.2 23.8 24.7 4.7 -17.9 16.7 21.1 4.4 -0.2 .. ..

South Africa 6.9 -20.5 26.4 18.4 15.6 2.0 -24.5 12.0 9.8 -0.3 -9.9 -1.1Nigeria .. -35.1 28.1 30.8 5.8 -37.2 73.5 36.5 3.6 -2.0 .. ..

Table A.5 Developing countries ' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual

rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis.

/b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were

updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by

trade weight reported.



I mport v alu esDev elopin g cou n tries 15.8 -20.7 30.2 25.1 7.9 -1.4 16.7 20.3 12.0 -7.9 -4.8 7.5

East Asia and Pacific 18.7 -15.5 37.2 24.9 -10.8 6.3 27.5 15.4 27.3 -13.6 -6.2 11.3China 23.2 -11.8 39.1 25.2 -15.8 7.4 37.8 9.4 34.8 -18.4 -7.1 13.7Indonesia 16.8 -25.0 40.5 30.8 16.3 0.0 42.6 18.0 6.1 -3.8 1.9 -0.2Thailand 15.5 -25.4 37.2 24.8 3.0 8.0 -19.2 59.6 6.8 20.3 -13.8 12.0

Europe and Central Asia 17.2 -33.6 26.0 30.1 20.0 -16.7 3.5 41.5 -1.1 -2.2 -3.7 2.9Russian Federation 17.5 -34.6 28.9 31.3 36.1 -20.3 2.7 46.4 0.4 -2.8 -5.1 2.9Turkey 16.0 -30.6 31.7 30.2 5.2 -15.2 -4.4 15.2 0.5 -2.7 -2.1 7.5

Latin America and Caribbean 10.1 -24.7 29.2 21.8 23.9 -2.6 4.1 19.4 1.2 -4.2 0.9 4.4Brazil 11.6 -26.0 42.1 24.7 50.0 -17.8 20.3 -1.8 -3.6 -1.2 3.7 2.4Mexico 9.4 -24.2 28.5 16.5 9.6 2.8 -0.2 32.0 3.8 -8.4 4.9 1.8Argentina 6.2 -32.5 45.8 30.5 30.9 10.4 -14.3 -18.2 -8.9 -6.0 -1.9 8.8

Middle East and North Africa 14.7 -6.6 13.9 15.6 10.5 5.8 17.0 4.4 0.8 5.0 .. ..Saudi Arabia 14.4 -19.0 12.6 23.2 12.1 4.1 14.9 41.1 5.0 -4.3 .. ..Iran 17.1 -14.8 33.4 41.0 17.9 40.5 -5.9 -44.8 3.0 8.7 .. ..Egypt 11.7 -6.8 17.8 11.6 93.5 -15.9 -3.2 65.9 7.7 6.1 -3.2 ..

South Asia 19.0 -19.3 32.0 31.3 44.8 -10.4 25.6 30.4 -4.6 -10.4 1.4 -5.8India 21.3 -19.2 34.0 32.2 48.5 -14.6 31.8 40.5 -1.9 -11.9 2.0 -6.5Pakistan 16.5 -22.6 19.4 16.5 28.7 23.6 -2.9 -14.6 -10.2 8.6 -4.1 2.2Bangladesh 12.3 -8.6 27.6 29.9 26.3 -12.9 -8.4 14.8 -26.2 .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 14.9 -18.3 13.9 24.5 39.4 1.0 -0.5 10.9 -0.6 .. .. ..South Africa 13.2 -28.7 23.8 24.5 34.8 -1.0 -4.2 17.0 -6.4 -0.6 7.1 ..Nigeria 21.8 -20.1 9.9 22.6 62.7 -37.3 -1.5 3.4 8.6 .. .. ..

I mport prices b ,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. -12.3 7.9 13.3 5.5 -2.6 8.8 -1.3 0.3 -0.3 -1.7 -0.4East Asia and Pacific .. -12.9 7.8 13.2 4.5 -5.8 11.5 -3.7 1.6 -1.0 -1.6 0.2

China .. -14.6 9.1 13.6 4.3 -7.2 9.2 -5.3 3.0 -0.9 -2.1 0.7Indonesia .. -19.7 12.3 19.3 3.0 -9.2 16.3 -0.9 1.3 -0.6 -2.9 -1.6Thailand 3.9 0.3 -0.1 6.0 7.0 -2.0 23.9 2.2 -3.2 1.6 -0.3 0.4

Europe and Central Asia .. -13.0 10.0 12.5 0.0 -3.3 3.0 2.2 -0.1 0.0 -1.0 2.2Russian Federation 1.7 -8.3 5.6 10.7 0.3 2.4 1.5 -4.0 -0.8 0.3 -0.4 -0.1Turkey 5.2 -13.6 21.2 12.7 -10.5 -15.6 4.2 17.4 -1.0 -2.5 -1.6 8.4

Latin America and Caribbean 4.1 -8.9 5.3 11.0 11.5 0.6 3.6 -0.5 0.1 0.6 -0.7 -0.4Brazil 5.6 -11.0 3.9 14.2 21.3 -4.3 9.6 0.2 1.1 0.7 -1.0 -0.9Mexico 3.3 -3.8 4.3 7.2 7.6 3.2 1.2 0.0 -0.7 1.2 -0.4 -0.4Argentina 1.8 -11.8 5.4 9.7 6.3 21.7 -12.5 1.1 0.0 -1.9 -1.6 -1.0

Middle East and North Africa .. -10.6 6.3 10.7 -10.9 -1.5 14.8 4.9 -1.2 -0.1 .. ..

Saudi Arabia .. -8.4 4.8 10.8 6.4 4.2 0.6 -5.8 1.0 0.1 .. ..Iran .. -13.4 5.8 13.8 5.3 0.3 2.7 -2.9 0.4 0.5 .. ..Egypt .. -14.5 6.5 15.9 7.0 -4.7 -0.7 -3.6 1.0 0.4 -1.0 ..

South Asia 2.3 -16.2 14.5 20.9 5.8 7.8 11.8 1.5 0.4 -1.4 -3.2 -6.7

India 3.3 -18.5 16.1 21.6 7.2 6.2 10.5 8.1 0.6 -2.0 -3.7 -7.1Pakistan 9.6 -3.2 18.7 25.5 15.9 4.3 27.0 -33.0 -0.9 -2.3 -1.1 2.1Bangladesh -6.2 -11.6 6.1 14.3 3.3 -2.5 -2.9 -10.3 2.0 0.9 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. -16.4 8.2 15.4 10.4 5.2 10.3 -3.9 1.3 -2.1 .. ..

South Africa 5.8 -22.8 8.0 18.9 35.5 19.0 35.9 -6.9 2.5 -0.6 -9.9 -0.4Nigeria .. -11.3 5.0 13.1 3.2 4.6 -0.3 -4.5 2.3 -4.0 .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries ' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual

rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis.

/b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were

updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters

by trade weight reported.


US$ bn. % GDP 2011 2012 2012

2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May

World -168.7 -0.3 -100.8 -58.0 48.2 553.4 -10.2 -182.6 -255.1 -598.5 -113.2 -141.6 -246.4

High - in come cou n tries a -418.9 -1.0 -210.7 -193.8 -180.5 -276.7 -114.8 -131.1 -188.1 -176.6 -178.9 -345.5 -249.6

Industrial countries -499.8 -1.2 -313.0 -403.9 -547.5 -636.3 -493.0 -534.7 -593.2 -605.0 -544.8 -666.0 -612.2

United States -706.1 -5.0 -549.3 -690.1 -785.6 -803.4 -752.8 -796.7 -850.8 -828.2 -838.4 -850.0 -876.7

Japan 183.2 3.7 27.9 75.3 -32.3 -60.5 -27.4 -68.1 -73.2 -49.2 -58.6 -80.5 -92.8

Euro Area -19.6 -0.2 54.8 34.7 36.9 25.1 30.2 88.3 138.2 96.7 148.3 123.6 197.5

United Kingdom -73.6 -2.8 -128.8 -153.1 -161.3 -168.6 -168.9 -155.9 -164.9 -180.2 -161.9 -204.6 ..

Other high income 80.9 4.2 -313.0 -403.9 -547.5 -636.3 -493.0 -534.7 -593.2 -176.6 -178.9 -345.5 -249.6

Hong Kong (China) 30.5 12.8 -29.1 -43.3 -54.3 -58.0 -58.9 -63.9 -48.0 -80.1 -52.9 -61.7 -56.9

Singapore 26.9 13.9 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.03

Taiwan (China) 24.9 6.0 28.7 22.6 25.9 22.4 30.3 29.0 28.2 57.3 24.0 6.6 24.9

Dev elopin g cou n tries 293.5 1.8 107.9 130.5 219.9 825.2 95.5 -63.4 -79.6 -439.8 55.1 210.4 -5.3

East Asia and Pacific 469.7 9.6 254.6 241.9 187.1 286.0 279.8 84.8 73.2 -293.8 197.7 355.9 224.2

China 426.1 11.5 195.1 182.1 148.6 231.2 211.8 86.1 75.7 -321.2 231.1 351.7 254.2

Indonesia 0.6 0.1 19.5 22.0 26.0 35.7 36.3 9.8 4.6 3.0 5.5 -2.4 -6.3

Thailand -0.1 0.0 18.9 12.3 0.1 5.8 8.0 -20.6 -24.3 -5.0 -59.1 -17.7 -30.4

Malaysia 38.9 19.7 33.7 34.4 39.3 39.4 42.9 38.1 32.7 37.0 33.8 29.1 22.3

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 1.7 7.1 0.5 -16.2 -0.3 46.0 16.4 28.0 24.8 33.4 19.7

Russian Federation 102.4 6.0 110.6 154.5 197.5 194.0 186.9 233.7 217.5 225.5 210.3 209.8 207.1

Turkey -41.3 -5.7 -38.3 -71.5 -106.0 -112.0 -100.0 -99.6 -95.0 -93.2 -88.8 -83.8 -94.7

Latin America and Caribbean -21.6 -0.5 -22.4 -35.1 -37.3 -44.6 -37.0 -35.5 -45.9 -39.9 -44.5 -73.9 -105.3

Brazil -28.2 -1.7 25.3 19.9 29.5 25.2 34.9 27.0 28.0 36.6 30.9 9.7 11.7

Mexico -15.8 -1.6 -4.7 -2.9 -1.4 -2.6 -4.8 0.8 -0.7 -0.3 1.5 -3.7 -2.8

Argentina 7.6 2.6 17.1 11.5 10.0 9.5 10.2 11.2 15.3 16.8 18.9 12.9 9.4

Colombia -6.7 -3.0 0.0 -0.7 2.4 0.7 1.7 6.0 5.5 5.1 7.1 3.2 -3.9

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 9.9 45.5 41.3 46.1 22.9 31.5 59.5 61.8 55.5 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 132.9 27.3 80.5 129.0 201.2 192.9 202.4 220.5 227.4 225.0 229.8 .. ..

Iran 0.0 0.0 29.3 39.7 44.3 49.9 31.8 48.6 57.7 54.3 51.8 .. ..

Egypt -1.3 -0.8 -21.7 -26.3 -28.5 -31.5 -29.6 -28.1 -37.8 -36.5 -43.9 -43.6 ..

Algeria 0.04 0.03 4.5 16.1 10.6 12.4 11.7 7.0 13.1 11.7 17.8 .. ..

South Asia .. .. -116.0 -152.4 -7.6 508.8 -199.7 -212.2 -226.7 -224.0 -223.1 -217.3 -229.2

India .. .. -90.5 -118.3 33.8 543.9 -153.7 -162.3 -180.5 -171.8 -182.5 -181.1 -192.8

Pakistan -15.7 -9.8 -14.3 -16.6 -18.7 -16.8 -21.5 -23.4 -20.1 -21.0 -19.1 -20.0 -19.1

Bangladesh .. .. -5.3 -8.6 -9.5 -9.8 -8.5 -8.9 -11.1 -14.3 -6.5 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa -29.9 -3.0 -14.2 32.9 46.4 53.7 39.4 33.6 55.8 47.6 53.7 .. ..South Africa -21.0 -7.5 -2.2 1.2 -2.8 -2.8 -4.3 -7.2 -8.0 -9.4 -9.9 -13.7 -15.4Nigeria 20.3 9.3 8.8 30.3 49.9 51.5 51.2 47.0 58.2 52.7 66.2 .. ..

Memo:

OECD .. .. -340.7 -462.9 -644.1 -736.9 -591.8 -623.1 -682.4 -691.1 -627.8 -745.7 -710.8

Developing excl. China .. .. -86.6 -49.5 74.4 597.7 -114.9 -146.0 -151.7 -105.3 -176.8 -164.3 -265.6

Developing oil exporters 191.2 .. 180.2 312.3 392.5 399.0 373.6 408.4 433.9 439.7 445.0 414.7 379.2

Developing non-oil exporters .. .. -73.1 -183.7 -176.3 421.0 -281.2 -475.0 -516.5 -884.4 -392.4 -209.2 -394.4

CAB

Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)

a/ Seasonally adjusted


Weights Average 2011 2012 2012

1995 2000-09 2009 2010 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr May Jun Jul

World 100.0 94.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

High - in come cou n tries 78.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 70.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Japan 7.4 112.0 10.4 6.7 10.1 12.9 10.4 6.7 3.8 1.4 2.0 0.5 -0.1

Euro Area 29.5 .. -5.0 -4.7 5.0 13.3 9.2 -0.8 -4.1 -0.4 -2.8 -2.0 -1.6

United Kingdom 5.6 0.6 -14.9 -0.9 3.8 9.4 3.7 -0.5 -1.9 1.1 -0.5 -2.3 0.1

Other high income 7.7 101.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 3.7 7.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0

Singapore 2.3 1.6 -2.7 6.7 8.4 12.3 10.6 1.2 1.0 0.7 -0.9 -1.3 1.0

Taiwan (China) 2.1 33.0 -4.5 4.9 7.2 10.4 9.4 0.3 -1.3 0.2 0.0 -1.5 0.0

Dev elopin g cou n tries 21.7 115.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 7.5 100.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 2.7 7.9 1.7 0.9 4.7 5.0 5.5 4.7 4.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 0.0

Indonesia 1.1 9360.6 -7.0 14.3 3.6 6.1 4.7 -0.1 -1.8 -0.2 -1.0 -1.6 -0.1

Thailand 1.3 38.9 -2.8 8.2 4.1 7.0 5.0 -3.3 -1.4 -0.6 -1.4 -1.1 0.1

Malaysia 1.4 3.7 -5.4 9.4 5.3 7.4 4.5 -1.1 -0.4 -0.5 -1.3 -2.5 0.3

Europe and Central Asia 4.3 94.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation 1.5 28.6 -21.7 4.6 3.3 8.4 4.9 -1.6 -2.9 -0.4 -4.7 -5.8 0.7

Turkey .. 1.3 -16.1 3.2 -10.3 -1.6 -12.8 -20.3 -12.2 0.2 -1.3 -0.7 0.6

Latin America and Caribbean 5.5 142.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Brazil 1.1 2.3 -8.3 13.6 5.1 12.4 7.0 -5.7 -5.7 -3.1 -6.5 -3.2 1.0

Mexico 1.7 10.8 -17.4 6.9 1.6 7.2 3.9 -9.2 -7.1 -2.2 -4.3 -2.1 4.3

Argentina 0.4 2.7 -15.2 -4.7 -5.2 -4.4 -5.3 -6.8 -7.6 -0.9 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9

Colombia 0.3 2329.3 -8.8 13.6 2.8 8.5 2.0 -2.8 4.3 -0.3 -1.2 0.4 0.4

Middle East and North Africa 1.7 163.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Iran 0.4 .. -3.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 ..

Egypt 0.3 5.2 -2.0 -1.4 -5.2 -5.8 -4.4 -3.8 -2.7 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2

Algeria 0.3 73.4 -10.8 -1.8 1.1 3.1 2.0 -0.4 -2.8 0.4 -1.2 -3.8 -3.4

South Asia 1.2 107.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India 0.8 45.5 -10.1 5.9 -2.0 2.1 1.5 -11.8 -9.9 -2.6 -4.9 -2.9 1.4

Pakistan 0.2 62.4 -13.4 -4.1 -1.3 -0.8 -1.2 -2.3 -5.6 0.1 -0.8 -3.0 -0.1

Bangladesh 0.1 62.3 -0.6 -0.8 -6.0 -5.5 -6.8 -8.6 -13.8 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sri Lanka 0.1 99.8 -5.8 1.7 2.2 3.5 2.6 -0.3 -7.0 -2.2 -0.6 -2.1 -1.1

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 117.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 0.6 7.7 -2.0 15.1 0.8 11.2 2.4 -14.8 -9.7 -2.8 -4.0 -2.7 2.1

Nigeria 0.3 124.9 -20.5 -0.9 -3.1 -2.9 -2.1 -5.4 -3.6 0.2 -0.6 -2.4 0.4

Memo:

OECD 73.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China 19.0 118.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters 2.8 171.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 19.0 108.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.8 Exchange Rates (USD/LCU)(annual percent change except monthly data which is change over previous month a/)



World 4.8 2.8 3.3 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.3

High - in come cou n tries 3.3 1.1 2.1 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.4Industrial countries 3.2 0.8 1.8 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2

United States 3.8 -0.3 1.6 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.7Japan 1.4 -1.3 -0.7 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2Euro Area 3.3 0.2 1.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2United Kindgom 3.6 2.2 3.3 4.5 4.3 4.8 4.7 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.0 2.8

Other high income 6.1 0.8 1.8 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2Hong Kong (China) 4.3 0.6 2.3 5.3 5.1 6.5 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.2Singapore 6.5 0.6 2.8 5.2 4.7 5.5 5.6 4.9 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.0Taiwan (China) 3.5 -0.9 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.3 0.2 1.2 1.4 1.8

Dev elopin g cou n tries 10.4 3.9 4.5 5.7 6.4 6.2 5.5 4.9 4.6 4.9 4.7 4.3East Asia and Pacific 9.5 1.5 4.1 5.4 5.9 6.3 4.7 4.0 3.8 4.1 4.3 ..

China 5.8 -0.7 3.3 5.4 5.8 6.3 4.6 3.8 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.0Indonesia 9.5 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.9 4.7 4.1 3.7 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.5Thailand 5.5 -0.8 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 2.5 2.6Malaysia 5.4 0.6 1.6 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.2 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8

Europe and Central Asia 10.4 3.4 6.1 6.5 8.3 5.8 4.3 2.5 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.8Russian Federation 14.1 11.6 6.9 8.4 9.5 8.1 6.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6Turkey 10.4 6.2 8.6 6.5 5.9 6.4 9.2 10.5 10.4 10.4 11.1 8.3

Latin America and Caribbean 8.8 3.3 4.2 6.2 6.4 7.2 5.7 5.0 5.1 4.5 4.7 4.5Brazil 5.7 4.9 5.0 6.6 6.6 7.2 6.7 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.1 5.0Mexico 5.1 5.3 4.2 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.9Argentina 8.6 6.3 10.5 9.8 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9Colombia 7.0 4.2 2.3 3.4 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5

Middle East and North Africa 13.7 3.5 4.4 4.5 4.0 5.1 5.2 8.6 9.2 8.1 5.8 ..Saudi Arabia 9.9 5.1 5.3 5.0 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.1Iran 25.5 13.5 10.1 20.6 21.1 21.3 22.1 21.4 21.7 21.7 .. ..Algeria 0.1 5.8 3.9 4.5 4.0 5.3 5.2 9.1 9.4 10.2 .. ..

South Asia 10.9 10.8 10.0 9.6 9.8 9.4 8.3 6.9 7.4 9.0 10.2 10.1India 8.4 10.8 12.0 8.8 8.9 9.1 8.3 7.2 7.4 9.0 10.2 10.1Pakistan 20.3 12.2 12.9 11.9 12.9 11.5 10.3 10.6 11.1 10.8 11.2 12.3Bangladesh 8.9 5.4 8.1 10.3 10.4 10.0 11.2 .. .. .. .. ..Sri Lanka 22.6 3.5 6.2 6.7 8.0 7.0 4.9 3.9 2.6 5.4 6.1 7.0

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 7.5 4.0 5.4 6.0 5.4 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.5 6.7 7.1South Africa .. 7.1 4.3 5.0 4.6 5.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.1 5.6Nigeria 11.6 11.5 13.7 10.8 11.4 9.8 10.4 12.1 11.7 12.0 12.8 12.8

Memo: 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.4OECD 3.3 0.8 1.8 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.8 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.5Developing excl. China .. 4.2 4.5 5.8 6.5 6.1 5.6 5.0 3.8 6.1 4.5 4.5Developing oil exporters 12.0 5.5 5.0 4.9 5.9 4.8 5.3 3.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.1Developing non-oil exporters 10.3 3.5 4.4 6.0 6.5 6.4 5.6 5.0 .. .. .. ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

a/ The CPI aggregates are the medians of the growth rates.

Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

July 18, 2012 page 10

Weights 2011 20121995 2009 2010 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar Apr May

World 100.0High - in come cou n tries b 82.8 0.44 -1.45 -3.33 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 80.6 0.44 -1.44 -3.32 .. .. .. ..

United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 0.16 1.93 0.10 0.16 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.16

Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.30 0.70 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30

Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 .. 3.89 .. 1.00 1.22 1.47 1.31 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

United Kingdom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 0.65 4.67 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Other high income 2.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 0.50 3.13 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 0.45 1.15 0.30 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31

Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 0.12 1.93 0.34 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.40 0.40 0.48 0.51

Dev elopin g cou n tries 17.2

East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 5.31 7.18 6.34 5.95 6.30 6.54 6.56 6.56 6.56 6.56 6.56

Indonesia (Interbank 3m rate) 0.7 8.19 9.18 6.54 6.71 7.12 6.76 5.58 4.41 4.20 4.22 4.32

Thailand (14day Bilateral Repo Rate) 0.6 1.40 1.47 2.95 2.28 2.76 3.32 3.43 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00

Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 2.11 4.48 2.89 2.72 2.87 2.97 2.98 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 11.38 10.87 8.12 7.84 8.16 8.25 8.23 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 9.71 17.05 7.93 6.84 7.52 7.37 9.98 9.66 9.39 10.67 10.73

Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 10.15 12.45 11.75 11.30 12.01 12.28 11.44 10.50 9.92 9.46 8.98

Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 5.52 7.88 4.35 4.35 4.41 4.26 4.40 4.40 4.44 4.35 4.38

Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 11.59 11.43 10.78 9.41 9.61 10.12 13.96 12.44 12.08 11.63 11.36

Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 6.28 9.68 4.16 3.49 3.85 4.39 4.89 5.18 5.30 5.48 5.44

Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia (Interbank 3m rate) 0.4 0.81 2.89 0.69 0.75 0.71 0.60 0.71 0.84 0.87 0.89 0.91

Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 9.00 10.17 8.75 8.50 8.50 8.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50

Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 .. 4.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 1.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 8.90 7.90 8.76 8.33 8.71 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00

Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 12.12 10.63 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00

Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 8.93 10.50 7.01 7.02 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.45 7.50 7.71 7.75

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 8.39 11.61 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50

Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 .. 9.85 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the value on the date the

data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available).

b/ High-income aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights.

July 18, 2012 page 11

Average 2011 2012 20121999-08 2009 2010 2011 Q4 Q1 Q2 Mar Apr May Jun

World 91 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..High - in come cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..United States 89 83 99 111 109 119 .. 116 115 112 111Japan 84 62 68 68 58 61 58 63 61 57 56Euro Area 99 222 299 332 244 270 .. 298 281 245 235United Kindgom 88 65 78 84 70 75 73 76 75 72 70

Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) .. 121 156 160 126 139 135 157 153 145 139Singapore 80 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5Taiwan (China) 72 74 95 104 73 80 77 86 82 79 76

Dev elopin g cou n tries a,b 156 176 233 245 183 202 189 209 204 189 182East Asia and Pacificc 123 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 118 182 218 211 180 200 190 180 178 168 160Indonesia 207 356 582 683 469 488 467 437 446 423 395Thailand 188 201 306 382 259 298 305 288 286 277 264Malaysia 116 141 193 223 184 202 199 217 217 209 206

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 525 259 356 406 334 376 332 398 375 323 306Turkey 87 93 147 131 90 97 96 95 94 87 89Poland 168 132 175 187 123 128 119 142 137 123 124Czech Republic 354 577 601 622 461 480 440 573 544 490 482

Latin America and Caribbean 203 291 394 397 314 353 315 374 357 320 306Brazil 199 317 419 405 324 368 309 379 350 305 287Mexico 193 229 315 349 288 316 313 346 349 329 322Argentina 104 101 161 182 117 116 68 114 90 72 61

Middle East and North Africa .. 164 220 237 179 197 184 204 195 178 174Egypt 213 354 426 309 189 220 224 233 217 222 202

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India 198 242 348 326 216 229 208 260 252 226 222Pakistan 241 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh .. 447 670 524 525 426 485 460 532 494 463Sri Lanka 229 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 216 218 293 325 256 282 271 274 265 253 251

Table A.11 Stock Markets(indices, year 2000=100)

a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002

Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month. Annual

data is the average over 12 months.

b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&P

c/ East Asia Pacific including South Asia

Source: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P

EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock

Excahnge Composite Index;

All Others are IFC/S&P Indices

and developing economies pressure on inflation (%) real...

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