andean region fixed income weekly - adcap colombia · bbva continental’s higher operating...

9
1 Informe Diario de Cierre Andean Region Fixed Income Weekly February 16 th 2016 What’s inside Colombia update: S&P revised its rating outlook to negative (from neutral)........................................P. 2 Peru update: Central Bank to keep policy tightening, concerned about inflation…………...……...…......P. 2 Trade Idea 1: Overweight ECOPET ‘43 Vs. Underweight ECOPET ‘45.......…………………………..………....P. 3 Trade Idea 2: Overweight INKENE ‘21 Vs. Underweight TRANSM ‘23.......………………………….………....P. 3 Andean corporate news…………………………………………………………………..………………………….………….… P. 4 What-to watch: Economic and Corporate calendar next week…………………………………………….………. P. 4 Indicative prices……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…..…… P.P 5-8 Local View: Colombia BanRep released the minutes of its last Board meeting. Board confident that inflation will converge to 5%. This Friday, BanRep will hold its ordinary meeting. Expected +25 bps. Local View: Peru Central Bank (BCR) increased its benchmark rate by 25bps, third time in a row; increasingly concerned about inflation. Higher than expected DEC15 GDP brings some optimism to local markets, but we remain cautious on 1Q16 perspectives, as growth still led by primary sectors and domestic demand remain relatively weak. Trade Idea 1: Overweight ECOPET ‘43 Vs. Underweight ECOPET ‘45 Spread between Ecopetrol ‘43 and Ecopetrol ‘45 has decreasing since Feb. 3rd, after hitting 108.4bps. We consider that the abnormal spread widening could normalize in coming weeks, and our base scenar- io depicts a spread reduction of around 30-25bps. Trade Idea 2: Overweight INKENE ‘21 Vs. Underweight TRANSM ‘23 Spread between INKENE ‘21 (Inkia Energy) and TRANSM ‘23 is 471bps, reflecting an increase of Inkia Energy’s yield, which should reverse in the short term as improving sector dynamics translates into lower risk perception. We aim at a spread reduction of 30bps (1-year average spread: 316bps). Andean Region — Fixed Income

Upload: others

Post on 06-Jun-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Andean Region Fixed Income Weekly - AdCap Colombia · BBVA Continental’s higher operating expenses in 4Q15 was the main driver of its 6.2% YoY drop in net income (barely +2.1% 2015

1

Informe Diario de Cierre

Andean Region Fixed Income Weekly February 16th 2016

What’s inside

Colombia update: S&P revised its rating outlook to negative (from neutral)........................................P. 2

Peru update: Central Bank to keep policy tightening, concerned about inflation…………...……...…......P. 2

Trade Idea 1: Overweight ECOPET ‘43 Vs. Underweight ECOPET ‘45.......…………………………..………....P. 3

Trade Idea 2: Overweight INKENE ‘21 Vs. Underweight TRANSM ‘23.......………………………….………....P. 3

Andean corporate news…………………………………………………………………..………………………….………….… P. 4

What-to watch: Economic and Corporate calendar next week…………………………………………….………. P. 4

Indicative prices……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…..…… P.P 5-8

Local View: Colombia

BanRep released the minutes of its last Board meeting. Board confident that inflation will converge to

5%.

This Friday, BanRep will hold its ordinary meeting. Expected +25 bps.

Local View: Peru

Central Bank (BCR) increased its benchmark rate by 25bps, third time in a row; increasingly concerned

about inflation.

Higher than expected DEC15 GDP brings some optimism to local markets, but we remain cautious on

1Q16 perspectives, as growth still led by primary sectors and domestic demand remain relatively weak.

Trade Idea 1: Overweight ECOPET ‘43 Vs. Underweight ECOPET ‘45

Spread between Ecopetrol ‘43 and Ecopetrol ‘45 has decreasing since Feb. 3rd, after hitting 108.4bps.

We consider that the abnormal spread widening could normalize in coming weeks, and our base scenar-

io depicts a spread reduction of around 30-25bps.

Trade Idea 2: Overweight INKENE ‘21 Vs. Underweight TRANSM ‘23

Spread between INKENE ‘21 (Inkia Energy) and TRANSM ‘23 is 471bps, reflecting an increase of Inkia

Energy’s yield, which should reverse in the short term as improving sector dynamics translates into lower

risk perception.

We aim at a spread reduction of 30bps (1-year average spread: 316bps).

Andean Region — Fixed Income

Page 2: Andean Region Fixed Income Weekly - AdCap Colombia · BBVA Continental’s higher operating expenses in 4Q15 was the main driver of its 6.2% YoY drop in net income (barely +2.1% 2015

2

06 de Marzo de 2015

Informe Diario de Cierre

LOCAL VIEW: COLOMBIA

S&P revised its rating outlook for the country to negative (from neutral), reflecting risks

that Colombia's external position could deteriorate further, particularly if the government

fails to undertake timely fiscal measures to contain its budget deficit.

Decision based on oil price forecasts ($40/b in 2016, $45 in 2017, and $50 in 2018)

that weakened S&P projections for Colombia, particularly for economic growth, fiscal

balances and external deficits.

S&P expects that government makes progress with fiscal adjustment measures and suc-

cessful peace negotiations; otherwise, fiscal slippage would cause further external

weakness, worsening Colombia's credit standing.

On Friday, BanRep released the minutes of its last Board meeting, which show that

Board is still confident that inflation will start converging dramatically to 5% in 4Q2016;

impact of El Niño and weaker FX much larger than previously expected.

In 2016, slower activity will cool down demand, reducing current account deficit.

25bps hike was taken by majority; majority cited need be predictable in monetary policy

(gradual rate rises seen as prudent move in this scenario). Minority that voted for 50bps

cited a need to send a strong message to markets and to further slowdown economy.

BanRep survey to analysts also showed a rise in 2016 inflation expectations, +66bps to

5.49%. In line with these forecasts, analysts expect +25bps in BanRep's next meeting.

LOCAL VIEW: PERU

As expected, last week the Central Bank (BCR) increased its benchmark rate by 25bps

to 4.25% (third consecutive monthly hike). In its statement, BCR expressed a heightened

concern that current pressures on prices could reinforce inflationary inertia.

Given this latest action and the tone of its statement, we strengthen our conviction that

BCR will do whatever it takes to reign on inflation expectations; given inflationary inertia

risks and pressures on PEN, we expect sooner rather than later additional rate hikes.

We believe an extra 25bps hike in its March meeting is now more likely; moreover, due

to the lag with which monetary policy actions take effect in the economy, we would not

rule out an additional hike in 2Q16.

As a reaction to higher short term rates expected in coming months, the USD sovereign

curve flattened since last week, mostly as yields in the short end rose.

DEC15 GDP came higher than expected (6.4% vs. 5.2% YoY), positively surprising mar-

ket participants (on the heels of better than expected mining activity) and bringing some

optimism on 1Q16 performance.

However, since DEC15 growth was led again by primary sectors, and investment and

consumption remain subdued, we recommend caution on 2015 year-end numbers.

S&P revised Colom-

bia´s outlook

Central Bank minutes:

El Niño’s negative

effect and devaluation

more than expected

More repo hikes to

come

CPI expectations high-

er than before

Oil dependency is a key

factor

Fiscal pressure becomes

the central point

Andean Region — Fixed Income

BCR hikes key rate,

third time in a row

BCR shows growing

concern about infla-

tion pressures

We expect at least

another +50bps in

coming months

DEC15 GDP surprises

to the upside, but we

remain cautious

Page 3: Andean Region Fixed Income Weekly - AdCap Colombia · BBVA Continental’s higher operating expenses in 4Q15 was the main driver of its 6.2% YoY drop in net income (barely +2.1% 2015

3

06 de Marzo de 2015

Informe Diario de Cierre

TRADE IDEA 1

Overweight Ecopetrol 2043 Vs. Underweight Ecopetrol 2045

We want to highlight an investment opportunity based on two long

term Ecopet Bonds that have similar duration.

Spread between Ecopetrol ‘43 and Ecopetrol ‘45 has decreasing

since Feb. 3rd, after hitting 108.4bps.

We consider that the abnormal spread widening could normalize

in coming weeks, and our base scenario depicts a spread reduc-

tion of around 30-25bps.

Entry/Current spread is 87. Average spread: 27.3.

If spread widens above 110bps, we recommend to close the

trade idea and realize the loss.

More about the bonds:

ECOPET 7 ⅜ 09/18/43 Bloomberg: EJ8286159 <Corp>

ECOPET 5 ⅞ 05/28/45 Bloomberg: EK2885771<Corp>

Overweight INKENE ‘21 Vs. Underweight TRANSM ‘23

Spread between INKENE ‘21 and TRANSM ‘23 is 471bps,

mostly due to an increase of Inkia Energy’s yield, which

should reverse in the short term as improving sector dynam-

ics would translate into lower risk perception.

We aim at a spread reduction of 30bps. Average spread:

315.95. If spread widens above 489bps, we recommend to

close the trade idea and realize the loss.

More about the bonds:

INKENE 8 ⅜ 04/04/21 Bloomberg: EI6274183 <Corp>

TRANSM 4 ⅜ 05/07/23 Bloomberg: EJ6603033 <Corp>

Ideas tracking record

Note: Positive trades Blue / Negative trades Red

Source: Bloomberg, Calculated by AdCap Colombia and Peru

06 de Marzo de 2015

Informe Diario de Cierre

Low: -15.8

High: 108.5

Ave: 27.3

-50

0

50

100

150

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Jun

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ba

sis

Po

ints

Spread Ecopet 43 Vs Ecopet 45

Average 1 year

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Ma

y-1

5

Jun

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

De

c-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

(%

)

ECOPET 43 ECOPET 45

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Ma

y-1

5

Jun

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

De

c-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

(%

)

INKENE 21 TRANSM 23

Low: 188.6

High: 489

Ave: 315.95

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Jun

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ba

sis

Po

ints

Spread INKENE 21 Vs TRANSM 23

Average 1 year

TRADE IDEA 2

Andean Region — Fixed Income

Page 4: Andean Region Fixed Income Weekly - AdCap Colombia · BBVA Continental’s higher operating expenses in 4Q15 was the main driver of its 6.2% YoY drop in net income (barely +2.1% 2015

4

06 de Marzo de 2015

Informe Diario de Cierre

06 de Marzo de 2015

Informe Diario de Cierre

This report is delivered for information only and does not constitute an offer or sale of securities nor shall it be construed or interpreted by any person as a solicitation to effect, or

attempt to effect transactions in securities. Further, this report does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the advisability of investing in any securities.

None of the entities or individuals named herein will be liable to any person for any reliance on this report when making or omitting to make any investment decision, or when taking or

omitting to take any action which has legal consequences.

CORPORATE NEWS LAST WEEK

(PACIFIC EXPLORATION) HARBOUR ENERGY LTD., INVESTMENT VEHICLE OF EIG, is offering to buy Pacific’s dis-

tressed bonds for 16 cents on the dollar with no accrued interest. The offer is less than a previous bid in January of

17.5 cents plus interest that failed and had no support.

(ECOPETROL) JP MORGAN CHANGED ITS ADR TARGET PRICE FROM $ 9.5 TO $ 6.5. Also, it changed the target price

for the local currency denominated stock from COP$ 1480 to COP$ 1030.

(ECOPETROL) REPORTED THAT IN 2015 THE CORPORATE GROUP ACHIEVED ITS SAVINGS GOALS FOR A TOTAL OF

COP$2.8 TRILLION, of which COP$2.2 trillion corresponded to the parent company. Given the challenging price envi-

ronment in 2016, ECOPETROL announced that it will seek additional COP$1.6 trillion savings in 2016.

(AVIANCA) CARGO OPERATED MORE THAN 150 FLIGHTS FOR VALENTINE’S DAY, During the 2016 season, the Com-

pany recorded the highest volume of cargo to Miami, mobilizing 821 tones of flowers in one single day. Avianca Car-

go’s itinerary for the season was satisfactorily followed, reaching 95 percent reliability for scheduled transfers.

(ISA) “SUPERINTENDENCIA FINANCIERA” AUTHORIZED AN INCREASE IN QUOTA OF PUBLIC DEBT OF COP$3.5 BIL-

LION. These resources will be destined for issue and placement of shares, in order to cash flow requirements.

METALS & MINING: SOUTHERN COOPER CORPORATION AND VOLCAN RELEASED THEIR 4Q15 RESULTS. Perfor-

mance of both firms has been affected by the downtrend in metals prices. Nevertheless, Southern increased the

volume of copper and zinc sold, but that was not enough to beat last year’s net income ($736.4 MM vs. $1,333

MM). Volcan had a net income in 4Q15 of US$ 1.1 MM; less than the US$ 10.3 MM.

PERUVIAN FINANCIALS REPORTED MIXED RESULTS: Credicorp Ltd. recorded a 4Q15 recurring net income of PEN

769.6 MM (+3.3% QoQ, +23% YoY). On the other hand, IFS reported a net profit contraction of 18.5% YoY and

45.9% QoQ in 4Q15 (on higher operating expenses and negative performance in subsidiary Interseguro). Finally,

BBVA Continental’s higher operating expenses in 4Q15 was the main driver of its 6.2% YoY drop in net income

(barely +2.1% 2015 vs. 2014, underperforming BCP, Interbank and Scotiabank).

CEMENTOS PACASMAYO WITH HIGHER REVENUES, THOUGH NET INCOME FELL IN 4Q15. Revenues grew 8.7% YoY

on enhanced preventive public investment due to El Niño, but net profit was PEN 59.8 MM, 1.9% less than 4Q14.

WHAT-TO-WATCH. ECONOMIC AND CORPORATE CALENDAR

Date Country US Eastern Time Event Period Expected Previous

17/02/2016 COL 14:00 Retail Sales YoY Dec 0.40% -0.30%

COL 14:00 Industrial Production YoY Dec 4.20% 4.80%

19/02/2016 COL 14:00 CIF Total Imports Dec 4243

COL Interes Rate overnight 6.25% 6.00%

PER GDP YoY 4Q15 2.90%

PER Current Account Balance (% GDP) 4Q15 -4.90%

PER Fiscal Balance (% GDP) 4Q15 -3.30%

23/02/2016 COL 17:00 Celsia Earnings Report 4Q15

Andean Region — Fixed Income

Page 5: Andean Region Fixed Income Weekly - AdCap Colombia · BBVA Continental’s higher operating expenses in 4Q15 was the main driver of its 6.2% YoY drop in net income (barely +2.1% 2015

5

06 de Marzo de 2015

Informe Diario de Cierre

COLOMBIA—Indicative prices

Source: Reuters; Bloomberg, calculated by Ad Cap Colombia.

06 de Marzo de 2015

Informe Diario de Cierre

AV

ALC

B 1

7

AV

ALC

B 2

2

BA

NB

OG

17

BA

NB

OG

23

BC

OLO

17

BC

OLO

20

BC

OLO

21

BC

OLO

22

DA

VIV

I 1

8

DA

VIV

I 2

2

GN

BS

UD

18

GN

BS

UD

22

GR

UP

OS

21

SU

AM

SA

24

BA

NG

AN

25

EC

OP

ET 1

8

EC

OP

ET 1

9

EC

OP

ET 2

3

EC

OP

ET 2

5

EC

OP

ET 2

6

EC

OP

ET 4

3

EC

OP

ET 4

5

OC

EN

SA

21

EE

BC

B 2

1

EE

BC

B 2

2

EE

PP

ME

19

TE

LE

FO

2

2

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

(%

)

Duration

Financials

Oil & Gas

Utilities

Airlines

CO

LOM

45

CO

LOM

44

CO

LOM

41

CO

LOM

37

CO

LOM

33

CO

LOM

27

CO

LOM

4 2

4C

OLO

M 2

3

CO

LOM

8.1

25

24

CO

LOM

21

CO

LOM

20

CO

LOM

19

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 6 11

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

(%

)

Duration

Daily Week ly 3M YDT

AVALCB 5.25 17 102.125 0.00% 0.03% 0.12% 0.27%

AVALCB 4.75 22 90.35 0.00% -2.06% -4.14% -4.07%

BANBOG 5 17 101.75 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.39%

BANBOG 5.375 23 96.77 0.00% 0.41% -1.20% -0.49%

BCOLO 6.875 17 104.75 0.00% 0.48% 0.86% 0.24%

BCOLO 6.125 20 102.24 1.05% -0.86% -0.25% -0.25%

BCOLO 5.95 21 104 0.00% 0.10% 0.19% 0.97%

BCOLO 5.125 22 94.75 0.00% -1.51% -2.14% -1.81%

DAVIVI 2.95 18 97.4 0.00% 1.07% -0.87% -2.11%

DAVIVI 5.875 22 98.5 0.00% 1.81% -1.43% -2.43%

GNBSUD 3.875 18 96.44 0.00% 2.05% 0.15% -1.04%

GNBSUD 7.5 22 99.34 0.00% -0.06% -2.89% -1.64%

GRUPOS 5.7 21 102.188 0.00% 0.18% -2.21% -2.54%

SUAMSA 4.875 24 97 0.00% 0.26% -4.43% -4.90%

BANGAN 4.875 25 92.5 0.00% -1.07% -3.29% -3.39%

ECOPET 4.25 18 97.473 0.00% -0.92% -1.32% -3.20%

ECOPET 7.625 19 103.5 -0.54% -0.24% -4.25% -4.61%

ECOPET 5.875 23 88.132 0.00% 1.59% -4.72% -5.92%

ECOPET 4.125 25 75.5 0.00% 2.03% -7.08% -5.92%

ECOPET 5.375 26 82 0.00% 4.46% -3.42% -5.75%

ECOPET 7.375 43 76.428 0.00% -2.95% -8.19% -9.21%

ECOPET 5.875 45 68.05 0.00% 1.19% -4.15% -5.16%

OCENSA 4 21 90.5 0.00% 0.00% -5.55% -6.70%

PRECN 5.375 19 16 0.00% 4.92% 10.34% -28.89%

PRECN 7.25 21 15.25 -1.61% -6.15% 1.60% -15.28%

PRECN 5.125 23 15.825 0.00% 43.86% 7.65% -14.46%

PRECN 5.625 25 16 0.00% 6.67% 6.67% -21.18%

EEBCB 6.125 21 98.03 0.00% -1.60% -3.89% -3.89%

EEBCB 5.7 22 96.01 0.00% -0.56% -5.13% -4.94%

EEPPME 7.625 19 110 0.00% -0.90% -2.09% -2.18%

TELEFO 5.375 22 88.98 1.29% -0.58% -1.68% -4.83%

TELEFO 8.5 49 81 0.00% -1.22% -7.43% -6.36%

PFAVHC 8.375 20 80.875 0.00% -0.77% 12.72% 23.95%

Total Return (%)Corporate Price

Daily Week ly 3M YDT

COLOM 5 45 79.466 -0.09% -0.88% -2.61% -5.47%

COLOM 5.625 44 85.473 -0.15% -1.42% -3.84% -6.59%

COLOM 6.125 41 90.563 0.02% -1.46% -4.33% -6.89%

COLOM 7.375 37 102.533 -0.18% -1.70% -5.34% -7.43%

COLOM 10.375 33 131.075 -1.18% -1.73% -4.91% -5.82%

COLOM 11.85 28 153.982 -0.31% -1.16% -3.51% -4.49%

COLOM 8.375 27 126.22 0.97% 0.98% 0.38% 0.37%

COLOM 8.125 24 116.72 -0.06% -1.00% -2.54% -3.37%

COLOM 4 24 92.11 -0.10% -1.05% -2.57% -3.46%

COLOM 2.625 23 85.878 -0.26% -0.96% -2.23% -2.75%

COLOM 4.375 21 99.085 0.04% -0.57% -1.10% -1.58%

COLOM 11.75 20 127.05 0.16% -0.17% -1.53% -1.70%

COLOM 7.375 19 110.418 -0.01% -0.47% -1.28% -1.52%

COLOM 7.375 17 104.753 0.09% -0.02% -0.33% -0.56%

COLOM 8.66 16 104.134 -0.02% -0.15% -0.55% -0.76%

COLOM 8.7 16 100.25 0.00% -1.89% -2.05% -2.05%

Total Return (%)Colombia Gov USD Price

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

Weekly Total Return

-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%

Weekly Total Return

Andean Region — Fixed Income

Page 6: Andean Region Fixed Income Weekly - AdCap Colombia · BBVA Continental’s higher operating expenses in 4Q15 was the main driver of its 6.2% YoY drop in net income (barely +2.1% 2015

6

06 de Marzo de 2015

Informe Diario de Cierre

Source: Bloomberg, Calculated by Ad Cap Colombia.

06 de Marzo de 2015

Informe Diario de Cierre

COLOMBIA—Indicative prices

Daily Week ly 3M YDT

COLTES 7.75 30 85.565 0.15% -0.91% -2.85% -4.48%

COLTES 6 28 75.122 -0.21% -0.89% -3.15% -4.08%

COLTES 7.5 26 88.545 -0.01% -0.91% -2.43% -3.55%

COLTES 10 24 105.811 -0.23% -1.42% -3.03% -4.12%

COLTES 7 22 91.39 -0.09% -0.93% -2.52% -3.33%

COLTES 11 20 109.198 -0.04% -0.90% -1.84% -2.63%

COLTES 7 19 96.111 -0.12% -1.03% -1.56% -2.15%

COLTES 5 18 93.092 -0.06% -0.66% -1.08% -1.40%

COLTES 11.25 18 107.718 0.00% -0.82% -1.13% -1.67%

COLTES 5.5 16 99.709 0.02% 0.04% 0.07% 0.08%

COLTES 7.25 16 100.289 -0.01% 0.00% -0.11% -0.20%

Total Return (%)Colombia Gov Cop Price

CO

LTES

28

CO

LTES

30

CO

LTES

26

CO

LTES

24

CO

LTES

22

CO

LTES

20

CO

LTES

19

CO

LTES

5 1

8

CO

LTES

11

.25

18

CO

LTES

5.5

16

CO

LTES

7.2

5 1

6

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

0 2 4 6 8

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

(%

)

Duration

Daily Week ly 3M YTD Rate Type Date Type Moody's S&P Fitch

AVALCB 5.25 17 Financial GRUPO AVAL LTD 101.63 3.49 0.92 280.69 -20.45 29.06 -9.10 300.47 5.25 FIXED 2/1/2012 2/1/2017 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 600,000,000$ Ba1 BBB

AVALCB 4.75 22 Financial GRUPO AVAL LTD 90.15 6.61 5.40 532.15 -3.87 25.50 56.89 514.51 4.75 FIXED 9/26/2012 9/26/2022 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 1,000,000,000$ Ba1 BBB

BANBOG 5 17 Financial BANCO DE BOGOTA SA 101.75 3.02 0.88 234.14 -9.45 -9.45 -9.45 254.34 5 FIXED 12/19/20111/15/2017 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 600,000,000$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB-

BANBOG 5.375 23 Financial BANCO DE BOGOTA SA 96.75 5.95 5.73 462.11 16.55 -8.74 53.27 442.32 5.38 FIXED 2/19/2013 2/19/2023 AT MATURITY Subordinated 500,000,000$ Ba1 BBB

BCOLO 6.875 17 Financial BANCOLOMBIA SA 105 2.82 1.20 211.72 -119.37 -24.10 41.53 226.27 6.88 FIXED 5/25/2007 5/25/2017 AT MATURITY Subordinated 199,512,000$ Ba1 BBB

BCOLO 6.125 20 Financial BANCOLOMBIA SA 101 5.86 3.83 481.25 14.67 42.85 94.38 472.84 6.13 FIXED 7/26/2010 7/26/2020 AT MATURITY Subordinated 620,000,000$ Ba1 BBB

BCOLO 5.95 21 Financial BANCOLOMBIA SA 103.03 5.28 4.46 413.43 -1.40 35.01 43.34 401.42 5.95 FIXED 10/27/20116/3/2021 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 995,643,000$ Baa2 BBB+

BCOLO 5.125 22 Financial BANCOLOMBIA SA 93.9 6.27 5.32 498.62 0.10 12.26 33.71 480.98 5.13 FIXED 9/11/2012 9/11/2022 AT MATURITY Subordinated 1,424,513,000$ Ba1 BBB

DAVIVI 2.95 18 Financial BANCO DAVIVIENDA SA 97.55 4.28 1.86 350.27 -0.85 51.63 55.96 355.52 2.95 FIXED 1/29/2013 1/29/2018 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 500,000,000$ Baa3 BBB BBB-

DAVIVI 5.875 22 Financial BANCO DAVIVIENDA SA 96.625 6.53 5.19 526.47 -0.56 30.35 71.97 509.17 5.88 FIXED 7/9/2012 7/9/2022 AT MATURITY Subordinated 500,000,000$ Ba2 BBB-

GNBSUD 3.875 18 Financial BANCO GNB SUDAMERIS SA 94 6.85 2.04 605.38 22.36 14.03 63.47 608.6 3.88 FIXED 5/2/2013 5/2/2018 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 300,000,000$ Ba1 WD

GNBSUD 7.5 22 Financial GNB SUDAMERIS BANK SA 98.7 7.76 5.00 650.24 -10.12 18.48 58.61 631.38 7.5 FIXED 7/30/2012 7/30/2022 AT MATURITY Subordinated 250,000,000$ B1 WD

GRUPOS 5.7 21 Financial GRUPOSURA FINANCE 101 5.48 4.43 433.09 -7.53 27.00 98.77 421.31 5.7 FIXED 5/18/2011 5/18/2021 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 300,000,000$ BBB- BBB

SUAMSA 4.875 24 Financial SUAM FINANCE BV 96.345 5.43 6.51 399.90 29.21 29.21 82.03 381.01 4.88 FIXED 4/17/2014 4/17/2024 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 500,000,000$ Baa1 BBB+

BANGAN 4.875 25 Financial BBVA COLOMBIA SA 92.5 5.95 7.09 443.50 12.06 12.06 55.92 423.68 4.88 FIXED 4/21/2015 4/21/2025 AT MATURITY Subordinated 400,000,000$ Baa3 BBB

ECOPET 4.25 18 Energy ECOPETROL SA 97.166 5.44 2.36 459.86 19.94 24.20 50.85 460.68 4.25 FIXED 9/18/2013 9/18/2018 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 350,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

ECOPET 7.625 19 Energy ECOPETROL SA 104.08 6.28 2.98 534.88 -19.43 -36.68 -0.10 530.68 7.63 FIXED 10/2/2009 7/23/2019 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 1,496,855,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

ECOPET 5.875 23 Energy ECOPETROL SA 88.75 7.87 5.74 650.14 -5.97 -42.82 -15.60 629.74 5.88 FIXED 9/18/2013 9/18/2023 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 1,300,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

ECOPET 4.125 25 Energy ECOPETROL SA 75 8.12 6.97 662.49 -6.37 0.48 5.51 643.34 4.13 FIXED 9/16/2014 1/16/2025 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 1,200,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

ECOPET 5.375 26 Energy ECOPETROL SA 80.4 8.22 7.38 664.72 -0.61 -27.63 8.41 642.69 5.38 FIXED 6/26/2015 6/26/2026 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 1,500,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

ECOPET 7.375 43 Energy ECOPETROL SA 76.829 9.82 9.47 798.11 -14.64 -12.73 23.54 728.16 7.38 FIXED 9/18/2013 9/18/2043 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 850,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

ECOPET 5.875 45 Energy ECOPETROL SA 68.66 8.90 10.84 700.45 -16.09 -21.01 -36.27 628.31 5.88 FIXED 5/28/2014 5/28/2045 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 2,000,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

OCENSA 4 21 Energy OLEODUCTO CENTRAL SA 89 6.52 4.52 537.00 -9.59 -0.51 193.79 526.12 4 FIXED 5/7/2014 5/7/2021 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 500,000,000$ Baa3 BBB

PRECN 5.375 19 Energy PACIFIC EXPLORATION AND 15 97.40 1.55 9653.10 -803.48 201.48 -2374.62 9650.1 5.38 FIXED 11/26/20131/26/2019 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 1,300,000,000$ Ba3 B+ BB

PRECN 7.25 21 Energy PACIFIC EXPLORATION AND 13.5 68.04 1.90 6697.88 0.98 641.97 -326.97 6669.3 7.25 FIXED 12/12/201112/12/2021CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 690,549,000$ Ba3 B+ BB

PRECN 5.125 23 Energy PACIFIC EXPLORATION AND 13 52.48 2.43 5128.59 0.53 671.94 -990.48 5094.5 5.13 FIXED 3/28/2013 3/28/2023 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 1,000,000,000$ Ba3 B+ BB

PRECN 5.625 25 Energy PACIFIC EXPLORATION AND 15 45.63 2.85 4437.93 -3.02 253.61 -1556.53 4394.6 5.63 FIXED 9/19/2014 1/19/2025 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 1,113,651,000$ Ba3 B+ BB

EEBCB 6.125 21 Utilities EMPRESA DE ENERGIA DE BO 98.75 6.39 4.68 519.13 -7.50 39.78 84.10 505.05 6.13 FIXED 11/10/201111/10/2021CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 749,000,000$ Baa3 BBB BBB-

EEBCB 5.7 22 Energy TRANSPRTDRA DE GAS INTL 95.25 6.66 4.91 542.68 -10.68 24.88 123.73 527.06 5.7 FIXED 3/20/2012 3/20/2022 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 750,000,000$ Baa3 BBB BBB-

EEPPME 7.625 19 Utilities EMPRESAS PUBLIC MEDELLIN 110.7 4.25 3.04 331.59 -0.99 13.11 36.43 327.36 7.63 FIXED 7/29/2009 7/29/2019 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 500,000,000$ Baa3 BBB+

TELEFO 5.375 22 Communications COLOMBIA TELECOMM SA ESP 86.5 8.05 5.22 676.18 20.89 52.84 101.65 657.86 5.38 FIXED 9/27/2012 9/27/2022 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 750,000,000$ BB BB

TELEFO 8.5 49 Communications COLOMBIA TELECOMUNICACIO 80 15.21 3.11 1419.70 122.13 1.40 259.60 1412.3 8.5 VARIABLE3/30/2015 PERP/CALL Subordinated 500,000,000$ B+ B

PFAVHC 8.375 20 Consumer, CyclicalAVIAN HLDS SA/LEASING/GR 80.34 14.78 3.23 1376.84 -17.28 6.93 -235.02 1368.2 8.38 FIXED 5/10/2013 5/10/2020 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 300,000,000$ B+ B

Z-SpdIssue

DateRank Amount (USD MM)Corporate Industry Issuer Price YTW Mdur

Var Z-Spd (bps) Coupon Maturity RatingSpd

o/Sov

Daily Week ly 3M YTD Rate Type Date Type Moody's S&P Fitch

COLOM 5 45 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 80.581 6.49 13.57 446.31 -12.93 -19.92 -9.75 382.45 5 FIXED 1/28/2015 6/15/2045 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 2,500,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

COLOM 5.625 44 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 86.778 6.67 12.63 468.97 -10.11 -19.59 -0.85 408.63 5.63 FIXED 1/28/2014 2/26/2044 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 2,500,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

COLOM 6.125 41 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 91.965 6.80 12.11 484.43 -8.05 -20.08 4.91 434.55 6.13 FIXED 10/20/20091/18/2041 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 2,500,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

COLOM 7.375 37 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 105.02 6.92 10.67 501.46 -11.85 -29.37 9.19 259.6 460.78 7.38 FIXED 9/19/2006 9/18/2037 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 1,818,400,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

COLOM 10.375 33 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 132.93 7.02 9.05 516.26 -8.23 -13.02 15.08 206.1 484.49 10.4 FIXED 1/28/2003 1/28/2033 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 340,511,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

COLOM 11.85 28 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 104.25 11.20 6.15 955.47 -18.27 2.91 18.07 924.75 11.9 FIXED 3/17/2000 3/9/2028 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 9,210,000$ BBB BBB

COLOM 8.375 27 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 116.54 6.27 7.44 441.80 -33.32 -17.25 23.84 418.56 8.38 FIXED 2/24/1997 2/15/2027 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 74,292,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

COLOM 8.125 24 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 117.8 5.42 6.09 394.65 -15.37 -24.00 13.68 219.4 372.85 8.13 FIXED 1/21/2004 5/21/2024 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 1,000,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

COLOM 4 24 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 93.363 5.02 6.59 354.46 -10.01 -25.90 10.64 201.7 336.67 4 FIXED 9/26/2013 2/26/2024 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 2,100,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

COLOM 2.625 23 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 87.045 4.81 6.22 340.68 -9.79 -26.40 9.38 198.2 323.36 2.63 FIXED 1/29/2013 3/15/2023 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 1,000,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

COLOM 4.375 21 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 99.583 4.46 4.74 324.47 -10.09 -22.15 -1.50 175.5 312.83 4.38 FIXED 7/12/2011 7/12/2021 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 2,000,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

COLOM 11.75 20 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 127.51 4.23 3.19 314.91 -19.24 -26.93 16.23 151.7 307.11 11.8 FIXED 2/25/2000 2/25/2020 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 796,059,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

COLOM 7.375 19 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 110.97 3.58 2.70 261.48 -13.07 -31.41 11.50 133.9 258.95 7.38 FIXED 1/13/2009 3/18/2019 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 2,000,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

COLOM 7.375 17 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 104.96 2.01 0.91 117.38 -22.40 -62.78 -79.38 46.27 137.12 7.38 FIXED 7/27/2006 1/27/2017 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 1,650,000,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

COLOM 8.66 16 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 104.22 1.92 0.61 87.82 -52.12 -69.16 -78.39 111.46 8.66 FIXED 10/7/1996 10/7/2016 PUTABLE Sr Unsecured 75,427,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

COLOM 8.7 16 Government REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 100.25 -20.38 0.01 ###### -5176.27 -789.48 -4818.23 -6663 -7770 8.7 FIXED 2/15/1996 2/15/2016 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 75,584,000$ Baa2 BBB BBB

MdurSpd

o/SovIssue Date Rank Amount (USD MM)Z-Spd

Colombia Gov

USDIndustry Issuer Price YTW

Var Z-Spd (bps) Coupon Maturity Rating

Daily Week ly 3M YTD Rate Type Date Type Moody's S&P Fitch

COLTES 7.75 30 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 85.565 9.62 7.74 72.93 -4.13 -7.53 12.89 0 7.75 FIXED 1/14/2015 9/18/2030 AT MATURITY Unsecured 3,251,419,992,000$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB+

COLTES 6 28 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 75.122 9.53 7.24 76.20 1.01 -7.91 -2.28 13.649 6 FIXED 4/28/2012 4/28/2028 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 10,392,929,512,000$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB+

COLTES 7.5 26 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 88.545 9.24 6.56 70.19 -7.37 -9.28 -5.39 0 7.5 FIXED 9/20/2011 8/26/2026 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 8,212,611,000,000$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB+

COLTES 10 24 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 105.81 8.97 5.37 76.73 -0.51 6.56 12.27 0 10 FIXED 3/19/2009 7/24/2024 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 21,544,007,378,000$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB+

COLTES 7 22 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 91.39 8.85 4.51 98.40 -1.54 6.62 18.11 0 7 FIXED 5/9/2012 5/4/2022 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 11,921,629,000,000$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB+

COLTES 11 20 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 109.2 8.40 3.30 94.89 -2.46 13.14 16.40 0 11 FIXED 7/29/2005 7/24/2020 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 10,004,393,135,000$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB+

COLTES 7 19 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 96.111 8.28 2.94 98.70 1.37 23.60 22.61 0 7 FIXED 1/15/2014 9/11/2019 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 8,324,945,456,000$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB+

COLTES 5 18 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 93.092 7.87 2.42 71.42 -2.13 15.33 18.98 0 5 FIXED 11/21/201211/21/2018AT MATURITY Unsecured 10,232,573,000,000$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB+

COLTES 11.25 18 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 107.69 7.92 2.23 79.32 -5.28 -1.30 7.31 10.826 11.3 FIXED 4/9/2008 10/24/2018AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 12,990,825,000,000$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB+

COLTES 5.5 16 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 99.709 6.21 0.35 -61.58 -8.66 -10.83 -40.35 0.5566 5.5 FIXED 7/1/2014 7/1/2016 AT MATURITY Unsecured 4,226,079,980,000$ Baa2

COLTES 7.25 16 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 100.29 6.17 0.31 -62.34 -5.94 -9.90 -33.02 9E-14 7.25 FIXED 11/27/20096/15/2016 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 20,648,934,000,000$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB+

COLTES 3 33 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 79.961 4.74 12.09 -185.84 -10.13 -5.57 20.88 -488.5 3 FIXED 6/5/2013 3/25/2033 AT MATURITY Unsecured 26,512,431,730$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB+

COLTES 3.5 25 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 93.199 4.41 7.41 -137.58 -9.67 -11.62 15.07 -465.8 3.5 FIXED 5/7/2014 5/7/2025 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 8,400,140,000$

COLTES 4.75 23 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 106.7 3.65 5.68 -175.65 33.89 33.89 33.89 -524.4 4.75 FIXED 1/17/2007 2/23/2023 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 59,721,479,960$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB+

COLTES 3.5 21 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 98.048 3.93 4.38 -122.13 -10.92 -13.76 35.00 -462.6 3.5 FIXED 3/10/2011 3/10/2021 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 41,905,784,786$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB+

COLTES 3.5 19 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 100.9 3.20 2.86 -176.32 -10.00 -8.00 20.14 -487.8 3.5 FIXED 1/8/2014 4/17/2019 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 24,768,060,750$ BBB+ BBB+

COLTES 4.25 17 Government TITULOS DE TESORERIA B 103.33 1.53 1.18 -323.20 -13.80 -22.35 -19.19 -528.6 4.25 FIXED 4/26/2010 5/17/2017 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 51,302,069,920$ Baa2 BBB+ BBB+

Spd

o/SovZ-Spd Issue Date Rank Amount (USD MM)

Colombia Gov

COPIndustry Issuer Price YTW Mdur

Var Z-Spd (bps) Coupon Maturity Rating

Andean Region — Fixed Income

Page 7: Andean Region Fixed Income Weekly - AdCap Colombia · BBVA Continental’s higher operating expenses in 4Q15 was the main driver of its 6.2% YoY drop in net income (barely +2.1% 2015

7

06 de Marzo de 2015

Informe Diario de Cierre

PERU—Indicative prices

Source: Reuters; Bloomberg, calculated by Ad Cap Colombia.

06 de Marzo de 2015

Informe Diario de Cierre

Daily Week ly 3M YDT

CPACPE 4.5 23 92 0.00% 0.00% -0.27% -1.60%

UNACEM 5.875 21 94.43 0.03% -0.34% -2.13% -2.37%

AJECBV 6.5 22 34.65 0.00% 8.58% -13.38% -13.38%

MAESPE 6.75 19 104.836 0.00% -1.19% 0.32% 0.32%

ISCORP 8.375 21 94.51 0.00% -0.91% -3.95% -3.17%

TGPERU 4.25 28 92 0.00% -0.94% -0.54% -3.95%

TRANSM 4.375 23 96 0.00% 0.00% -1.06% -1.29%

BCOCPE 2.25 16 100.4 0.00% 0.00% 0.35% 0.53%

BCOCPE 5.75 17 102.25 0.00% -0.78% -0.87% -0.73%

BCOCPE 3.25 18 100.5 0.01% 0.10% 0.25% 0.00%

BCOCPE 5.5 20 105.75 0.00% -1.54% -1.60% -1.40%

BCOCPE 5 22 102.45 2.02% -0.05% 1.94% -0.41%

BCOCPE 5.25 29 93.6 0.00% -4.35% -3.60% -3.34%

BCP 4.75 16 99.9 0.00% -0.12% -0.23% -0.60%

BCP 2.75 18 99.51 0.00% -0.49% -0.49% -0.54%

BCP 5.375 20 105.5 1.79% -0.47% -1.77% -1.79%

BCP 4.25 23 98.713 0.00% -1.83% -0.63% -0.92%

BCP 6.875 26 104 -0.24% -0.81% -3.48% -3.96%

BCP 6.125 27 100.5 0.50% -0.74% -1.47% -3.37%

BINTPE 5.75 20 106.75 0.00% 0.00% -0.33% 1.18%

BINTPE 6.625 29 97 0.93% 0.93% -3.10% -3.12%

BNSCN 4.5 27 91.9 0.00% -0.11% -4.17% -3.41%

IFHBH 5.875 25 91 -3.86% -1.61% -4.71% -3.96%

HOCLN 7.75 21 90.06 0.00% 2.63% -0.73% -0.04%

MILPOC 4.625 23 75.5 0.00% -8.52% -12.21% -15.17%

MINSUR 6.25 24 80.75 -0.92% -0.62% -3.87% -12.42%

VOLCAN 5.375 22 62.75 -1.18% 1.18% 2.28% -1.73%

COFIDE 3.25 19 99.87 0.00% -0.63% -0.03% -0.01%

COFIDE 4.75 22 101.49 0.00% 0.11% -0.30% -0.01%

COFIDE 4.75 25 96.9 0.00% -0.10% -0.82% -1.62%

COFIDE 5.25 29 94.6 0.24% -1.92% -3.72% -3.76%

MIVIVI 3.375 19 99.453 0.20% 0.12% -0.32% -0.28%

MIVIVI 3.5 23 92.92 0.10% 0.13% -0.57% -1.85%

Total Return (%)Corporate Price

Daily Weekly 3M YDT

PERU 7.125 19 113.8 0.19% 0.19% 0.17% -0.30%

PERU 7.35 25 125.57 0.30% 0.02% 1.38% -0.03%

PERU 8.75 33 139.59 0.24% -0.19% 0.87% -0.89%

PERU 6.55 37 115.34 0.20% -0.16% 1.31% -0.73%

PERU 5.625 50 102.428 0.14% -0.27% 1.81% -0.31%

Total Return (%)Peru Gov USD Price

BC

OC

PE

16

BC

OC

PE

17

BC

OC

PE

18

BC

OC

PE

20

BC

OC

PE

22

BC

OC

PE

29

BC

P 1

6

BC

P 1

8

BC

P 2

0

BC

P 2

3

BC

P 2

6

BC

P 2

7

BIN

TPE

20

BIN

TPE

29

BN

SCN

27

IFH

BH

25HO

CLN

21

MIL

PO

C 2

3

MIN

SUR

24

VO

LCA

N 2

2

CP

AC

PE

23

UN

AC

EM 2

1

MA

ESP

E 1

9 ISC

OR

P 2

1

TGP

ERU

28

TRA

NSM

23

CO

FID

E 1

9

CO

FID

E 2

2

CO

FID

E 2

5

CO

FID

E 2

9

MIV

IVI 1

9

MIV

IVI 2

3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0 2 4 6 8

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

(%

)

Duration

Financials

Basic Materials

Others

Quasi-Gov Financials

-10.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0% Weekly Total Return

PER

U 1

9

PER

U 2

5

PER

U 3

3

PER

U 3

7

PER

U 5

0

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

1 6 11 16

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

(%

)

Duration

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

PERU 7.125 19 PERU 7.35 25 PERU 8.75 33 PERU 6.55 37 PERU 5.625 50

Weekly Total Return

Andean Region — Fixed Income

Page 8: Andean Region Fixed Income Weekly - AdCap Colombia · BBVA Continental’s higher operating expenses in 4Q15 was the main driver of its 6.2% YoY drop in net income (barely +2.1% 2015

8

06 de Marzo de 2015

Informe Diario de Cierre

Source: Bloomberg, Calculated by Ad Cap Colombia.

06 de Marzo de 2015

Informe Diario de Cierre

PERU—Indicative prices

Daily Week ly 3M YDT

PERUGB 8.6 17 104.79 0.00% -0.04% -0.21% -0.38%

PERUGB 7.84 20 105.45 0.00% 0.32% 0.12% 0.20%

PERUGB 5.2 23 89.272 0.00% 0.44% 0.10% -0.21%

PERUGB 5.7 24 90.667 0.00% 0.08% -0.24% -0.07%

PERUGB 8.2 26 105.153 0.00% 0.82% -0.43% 0.05%

PERUGB 6.95 31 92.474 0.00% 0.72% 0.39% 0.23%

PERUGB 6.9 37 89.889 0.00% 1.35% 0.03% -0.79%

PERUGB 6.85 42 87.005 0.00% 0.98% -1.50% -2.35%

PERUGB 6.7142 55 84.068 0.00% 1.18% -0.93% -2.68%

Total Return (%)Peru Gov PEN Price

PER

UG

B 1

7

PER

UG

B 2

0

PER

UG

B 2

3

PER

UG

B 2

4

PER

UG

B 2

6

PER

UG

B 3

1

PER

UG

B 3

7

PER

UG

B 4

2

PER

UG

B 5

5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

0 5 10

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

(%

)

Duration

Daily Week ly 3M YTD Rate Type Date Type Moody's S&P Fitch

CPACPE 4.5 23 Industrial CEMENTOS PACASMAYO SAA 92 5.92 5.83 458.57 -0.32 -0.32 32.28 439.58 4.5 FIXED 2/8/2013 2/8/2023 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 300,000,000$ BBB- BB+

UNACEM 5.875 21 Industrial UNION ANDINA DE CEMENTOS 94.55 7.05 4.65 585.97 -3.40 6.50 68.66 572.09 5.88 FIXED 10/31/2014 10/30/2021CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 625,000,000$ Ba2 BB+

AJECBV 6.5 22 Consumer, Non-cyclicalAJECORP BV 34.65 30.50 3.59 2930.46 0.43 -217.06 415.41 2909.2 6.5 FIXED 5/14/2012 5/14/2022 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 450,000,000$ BB BB-

MAESPE 6.75 19 Consumer, Cyclical MAESTRO PERU SA 104.84 4.12 0.58 346.24 -1.08 186.35 -72.54 370.46 6.75 FIXED 9/26/2012 9/26/2019 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 200,000,000$ Ba2 B /*+

ISCORP 8.375 21 Utilities INKIA ENERGY LTD 94.51 9.76 3.92 864.13 -6.92 21.67 123.72 851.4 8.38 FIXED 4/4/2011 4/4/2021 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 450,000,000$ Ba3 BB BB

TGPERU 4.25 28 Utilities TRANSPORT DE GAS PERU 92 5.28 7.92 368.59 -2.12 24.29 33.94 349.41 4.25 FIXED 4/30/2013 4/30/2028 SINKABLE Sr Unsecured 850,000,000$ Baa1 BBB+ BBB+

TRANSM 4.375 23 Utilities TRANSMANTARO 96 5.04 6.01 368.71 25.19 25.19 49.38 350.02 4.38 FIXED 5/7/2013 5/7/2023 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 450,000,000$ Baa3 BBB-

BCOCPE 2.25 16 Financial BBVA BANCO CONTINENTAL 100.4 1.34 0.44 69.93 -3.19 -3.19 -77.06 96.685 2.25 FIXED 1/29/2013 7/29/2016 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 300,000,000$ A- BBB+

BCOCPE 5.75 17 Financial CONTINENTAL SR TRUST 102.25 3.23 0.89 254.58 -0.98 75.37 77.50 274.67 5.75 FIXED 1/18/2012 1/18/2017 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 500,000,000$ A- BBB+

BCOCPE 3.25 18 Financial BBVA BANCO CONTINENTAL 100.5 3.01 2.03 221.35 -1.64 -6.25 2.91 225.11 3.25 FIXED 4/8/2013 4/8/2018 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 500,000,000$ A- BBB+

BCOCPE 5.5 20 Financial BANCO CONT(CONT SR TRST) 105.75 4.15 4.12 306.09 -7.34 57.20 59.95 296.66 5.5 FIXED 11/18/2010 11/18/2020AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 350,000,000$ A- BBB+

BCOCPE 5 22 Financial BBVA BANCO CONTINENTAL 102.45 4.56 5.40 327.75 -36.80 -0.03 -8.99 310.72 5 FIXED 8/29/2012 8/26/2022 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 500,000,000$ A- BBB+

BCOCPE 5.25 29 Financial BBVA BANCO CONTINENTAL 93.6 6.22 6.60 476.14 -1.40 70.28 81.59 456.32 5.25 VARIABLE9/22/2014 9/22/2029 CALLABLE Subordinated 300,000,000$ BBB+ BBB

BCP 4.75 16 Financial BANCO DE CREDITO DEL PER 99.9 5.97 0.07 544.90 4.85 158.42 219.88 568.9 4.75 FIXED 3/16/2011 3/16/2016 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 150,286,000$ Baa1 A- BBB+

BCP 2.75 18 Financial BANCO DE CREDITO DEL PER 99.51 3.02 1.82 225.02 -0.97 25.87 40.58 231.02 2.75 FIXED 7/9/2014 1/9/2018 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 230,154,000$ A-

BCP 5.375 20 Financial BANCO DE CREDITO DEL PER 105.5 4.05 3.96 297.40 -43.83 9.79 64.98 288.78 5.38 FIXED 9/16/2010 9/16/2020 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 800,000,000$ Baa1 A- BBB+

BCP 4.25 23 Financial BANCO DE CREDITO DEL PER 97.02 4.75 5.96 340.00 27.68 58.31 65.52 321.42 4.25 FIXED 4/1/2013 4/1/2023 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 716,301,000$ Baa1 A- BBB+

BCP 6.875 26 Financial BANCO DE CREDITO DEL PER 104 6.02 4.48 484.42 5.43 16.57 99.84 470.7 6.88 VARIABLE9/16/2011 9/16/2026 CALLABLE Subordinated 476,135,595$ Baa3 BBB+ BBB

BCP 6.125 27 Financial BANCO DE CREDITO DEL PER 100.5 6.02 4.99 478.47 -9.96 13.76 54.25 462.23 6.13 VARIABLE4/24/2012 4/24/2027 CALLABLE Subordinated 720,000,000$ Baa3 BBB+ BBB

BINTPE 5.75 20 Financial BANCO INTERNAC DEL PERU 106.75 4.13 3.99 305.66 -1.93 -1.93 34.66 296.63 5.75 FIXED 10/7/2010 10/7/2020 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 650,000,000$ Baa2 BBB+

BINTPE 6.625 29 Financial BANCO INTERNAC DEL PERU 97 7.06 6.07 571.19 -15.23 -15.23 77.77 550.28 6.63 VARIABLE3/18/2014 3/19/2029 CALLABLE Subordinated 300,000,000$ Ba1 BBB BBB-

BNSCN 4.5 27 Financial SCOTIABANK PERU SA 91.9 5.96 5.68 464.68 -0.61 1.60 101.06 446.29 4.5 VARIABLE12/13/2012 12/13/2027CALLABLE Subordinated 400,000,000$ Baa2 A-

IFHBH 5.875 25 Financial INTERCORP PERU LTD 91 7.26 6.74 577.45 50.13 24.20 105.06 556.41 5.88 FIXED 2/12/2015 2/12/2025 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 250,000,000$ Ba2 BBB- BB

HOCLN 7.75 21 Basic Materials CO MINERA ARES SAC 90.06 10.37 3.91 927.64 0.24 -57.48 50.63 916.07 7.75 FIXED 1/23/2014 1/23/2021 CALLABLE Sr Unsecured 350,000,000$ Ba3 BB+

MILPOC 4.625 23 Basic Materials COMPANIA MINERA MILPO 75.5 9.43 5.56 809.55 -0.71 165.13 263.65 789.86 4.63 FIXED 3/28/2013 3/28/2023 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 350,000,000$ BBB BBB-

MINSUR 6.25 24 Basic Materials MINSUR SA 80.75 9.78 5.88 838.99 14.54 10.73 95.30 817.83 6.25 FIXED 2/7/2014 2/7/2024 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 450,000,000$ Baa3 BBB- BBB-

VOLCAN 5.375 22 Basic Materials VOLCAN CIA MINERA SAA-CM 62.75 15.07 4.56 1385.64 26.13 -24.05 -13.54 1370.1 5.38 FIXED 2/2/2012 2/2/2022 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 600,000,000$ Ba1 BBB- NR

COFIDE 3.25 19 Financial CORP FINANCIERA DE DESAR 99.87 3.29 3.19 235.06 -0.74 23.94 36.82 231.86 3.25 FIXED 7/15/2014 7/15/2019 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 300,000,000$ BBB+ BBB+

COFIDE 4.75 22 Financial CORP FINANCI DE DESARROL 101.49 4.46 5.15 323.20 -10.58 -3.29 36.12 309.12 4.75 FIXED 2/8/2012 2/8/2022 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 500,000,000$ BBB+ BBB+

COFIDE 4.75 25 Financial CORP FINANCIERA DE DESAR 96.9 5.17 7.43 363.96 -8.20 13.30 44.44 344.22 4.75 FIXED 7/15/2015 7/15/2025 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 600,000,000$ BBB+ BBB+

COFIDE 5.25 29 Financial CORP FINANCIERA DE DESAR 94.6 6.08 6.62 463.18 -5.04 53.31 90.19 443.63 5.25 VARIABLE7/15/2014 7/15/2029 CALLABLE Subordinated 300,000,000$ BBB BBB

MIVIVI 3.375 19 Financial FONDO MIVIVIENDA SA 99.45 3.56 2.90 253.25 -17.40 -17.58 19.91 251.22 3.38 FIXED 4/2/2014 4/2/2019 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 300,000,000$ BBB+ BBB+

MIVIVI 3.5 23 Financial FONDO MIVIVIENDA SA 92.914 4.71 6.04 329.92 -9.15 -9.15 30.45 311.91 3.5 FIXED 1/31/2013 1/31/2023 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 500,000,000$ BBB+ BBB+

Corporate Industry Issuer Price YTW MdurVar Z-Spd (bps) Coupon Maturity RatingSpd

o/SovAmount (USD MM)Z-Spd Issue Date Rank

Daily Weekly 3M YTD Rate Type Date Type Moody's S&P Fitch

PERUGB 8.6 17 Government BONOS DE TESORERIA 104.85 515.00% 1.37 -117.58 -6.503 8.6 FIXED 7/8/2005 8/12/2017 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 2,563,661,000$ A3 A- A-

PERUGB 7.84 20 Government BONOS DE TESORERIA 105.64 637.99% 3.70 49.35 49.35 49.35 49.35 -10.02 7.84 FIXED 7/18/2005 8/12/2020 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 6,427,234,000$ A3 A- A-

PERUGB 5.2 23 Government BONOS DE TESORERIA 89.541 701.99% 5.79 150.38 150.38 150.38 150.38 -12.15 5.2 FIXED 6/22/2012 9/12/2023 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 3,167,885,000$

PERUGB 5.7 24 Government BONOS DE TESORERIA 90.96 715.99% 6.38 172.76 172.76 172.76 172.76 -12.47 5.7 FIXED 11/7/2014 8/12/2024 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 7,128,422,000$ A3 A-

PERUGB 8.2 26 Government BONOS DE TESORERIA 105.52 745.99% 6.90 216.10 216.10 216.10 216.10 -13.73 8.2 FIXED 5/3/2006 8/12/2026 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 4,593,276,000$ A3 A- A-

PERUGB 6.95 31 Government BONOS DE TESORERIA 92.889 777.98% 8.92 282.27 282.27 282.27 282.27 -14.94 6.95 FIXED 4/24/2008 8/12/2031 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 4,290,157,000$ A3 A-

PERUGB 6.9 37 Government BONOS DE TESORERIA 90.356 786.98% 10.32 317.93 317.93 317.93 317.93 -15.29 6.9 FIXED 7/26/2007 8/12/2037 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 4,750,000,000$ A3 A-

PERUGB 6.85 42 Government BONOS DE TESORERIA 87.483 803.98% 10.89 347.72 347.72 347.72 347.72 1.7119 6.85 FIXED 1/27/2010 2/12/2042 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 4,040,273,000$ A3 A-

PERUGB 6.7142 55 Government BONOS DE TESORERIA 84.568 804.97% 11.83 377.57 377.57 377.57 377.57 2.7119 6.71 FIXED 7/9/2014 2/12/2055 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 835,293,000$

RatingAmount (USD MM)Peru Gov COP Industry Issuer Price YTW Mdur

Var Z-Spd (bps) Coupon MaturitySpd

o/SovZ-Spd Issue Date Rank

Daily Weekly 3M YTD Rate Type Date Type Moody's S&P Fitch

PERU 7.125 19 Government REPUBLIC OF PERU 113.8 249.19% 2.77 152.36 -14.27 -17.31 -2.23 149.72 7.13 FIXED 3/30/2009 3/30/2019 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 691,814,000$ A3 BBB+ BBB+

PERU 7.35 25 Government REPUBLIC OF PERU 125.58 405.57% 7.08 252.01 -8.79 -3.53 2.83 229.89 7.35 FIXED 7/19/2005 7/21/2025 AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 2,009,161,000$ A3 BBB+ BBB+

PERU 8.75 33 Government REPUBLIC OF PERU 139.62 528.27% 10.18 343.55 -7.90 -1.74 12.84 314.16 8.75 FIXED 11/21/2003 11/21/2033AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 2,245,439,000$ A3 BBB+ BBB+

PERU 6.55 37 Government REPUBLIC OF PERU 115.28 530.26% 11.46 338.33 -7.02 -1.38 10.56 148.7 306.24 6.55 FIXED 3/14/2007 3/14/2037 SINKABLE Sr Unsecured 1,201,667,000$ A3 BBB+ BBB+

PERU 5.625 50 Government REPUBLIC OF PERU 102.38 547.09% 15.19 343.90 -6.51 -1.69 9.36 145.2 280.34 5.63 FIXED 11/18/2010 11/18/2050AT MATURITY Sr Unsecured 2,545,000,000$ A3 BBB+ BBB+

Var Z-Spd (bps) Coupon Maturity RatingZ-SpdPeru Gov USD Industry Issuer Price YTW Mdur

Spd

o/SovIssue Date Rank Amount (USD MM)

Andean Region — Fixed Income

Page 9: Andean Region Fixed Income Weekly - AdCap Colombia · BBVA Continental’s higher operating expenses in 4Q15 was the main driver of its 6.2% YoY drop in net income (barely +2.1% 2015

9