andrew lippman, mit media lab [email protected] october, 2005 open innovation
TRANSCRIPT
Two Parts
Open Trends
Viral Ideas
Innovation today happens at the edgesIt happens surprisingly fast: Faster than IP!Ideas that you can see and breakthroughs you can’t predict
Organization Elements
Process Control
Communications Information
Open Organization
Open Source
Open Comms Open Knowledge
Linux
Skype?
Brazil, today
Open architecture
and marketing
Closed architecture
open marketing
Skype
Peer-to-peer VoIP application
First released October 2003
7 million users after one year, 25 million today
IM, Conferencing, voice-mail, etc
Open API; viral operation
Skype-out, 2004; Skype-in, 2005, …
$2.5/4.1 Billion acquisition by Ebay (9/05)
X50
Viral, but closed
Open Organization
Open Source
Open Comms Open Knowledge
Linux
WikiSkype?
Open architecture
Open application
Wiki
• Contributory encyclopedia, Jimmy Wales, 2001• 726K articles in English, 2.3million globally• 180 languages, 75 with > 1000 entries• Wiktionary, news, etc.• Hierarchical yet open• non-profit
Mashups
Kosher Food in Boston
NYTimes
Oct 21, 2005
Wiki updates
Open Hardware
Looking deeper
Open Source
Open Comms Open Knowledge
Linux
WikiSkype
Open Organization
Open Source
Open Comms Open Knowledge
Linux
WikiSkype
Open Organization
Scalable
Incremental
Contributory
Viral Innovation
Viral systems are innovative through modularity and distribution of capability -- the intelligence is at the ends
e.g.: Internet, (fax machines)
Viral Growth
CapacityBandwidth/Noden
CapacityBandwidth/Node
~nn
Viral radio is scalable, incremental, and value-adding.
Intelligence is at the edges, costs are low, systems are agile.
Spreadsheet: More users => more applications
Napster: More users => more music
Skype: More users => bigger exchange
Viral Examples
Education: The learners are the innovators, infrastructure makes the system rigid
Communications: The intelligence is now in the phones, will the carriers be marginalized?
Healthcare: Patients as a group already are more up-to-date than their physician; the average psychologist reads no more than one journal per month
Viral Possibilities
Radio communication normally usesone transmitter and one receiver.Throughput is understood.New systems use multiple transmitand/or receive antennas, E.g., Blast,COFDM
AB
ABA
BA
BA
BCreates Cells on-the-fly
Cells Without Towers
How far can we go with no infrastructure?
Past Mesh
Inherent Broadcast
Access
M3
M2
M4
M1
R2
R3
R1
??
!
Propagation
The world is not free space
Cooperative Propagation
Access
M3
M2
M4
M1
R2
??
Digital Radio = Intelligent Radio
Interference is a legal idea, not a physical oneMore radios means more communications, not lessMore radios mean less power, not moreBuildings and barriers help, rather than hurt
Transmitting costs less than receivingFunction costs is near-zero
Digital radio reverses 85 years of engineering
Viral Growth
CapacityBandwidth/Noden
CapacityBandwidth/Node
~nn
Viral radio is scalable, incremental, and value-adding.
Intelligence is at the edges, costs are low, systems are agile.
Radio Magic
Radio Magic
Podcasting
2004: Peers Protocol
2005: Expat TV
Lippman, Reed, Bletsas, Christakos, Vyzovitis, Cooley, Li
Vid-Torrent
Vid-Torrent
Same Things
Better
vs
Utterly New
Being Digital (1995)
HDTVDigital BroadcastDBS
TiVoScalable VideoMetadata
Open Arch breeds changes
Being Wireless (2002)
PCSSatellite Radio802.11
M2MOpen ServicesP2P
Pentland, Maes
Same Things
Better
vs
Utterly New
Being Viral (2005)
CentralizedVertical (Rigid)Slow
ScalableIncrementalValue-adding
Transparent
Same Things
Better
vs
Utterly New
Legitimate:EconomicCentralized(Scalable)
Viral:Optimized for innovationLow riskAgility
Charles Fine, 2001
Going Legitimate
Viral:Optimized for innovationLow riskAgility
When?Base Techs
The magic is when technology is in sync with society
Going Legitimate
Legitimate:EconomicCentralized(Scalable)
Licensed v Unlicensed
Golf courses rather than beachfront
Favors property owner over license holder
Comes online quickly
Grows organically
We could do it right!
Growth of the Tail
Number of programs
Number of
Viewers
HBO
Food
Whitman
Bionics
10-X: making you ten times faster, smarter…
QuickTime™ and aYUV420 codec decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
