Anexo B6- Analisis de Riesgo.xls

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Run preferences:Number of trials run 10,000Extreme speedMonte CarloRandom seedPrecision control on Confidence level 95.00%

Run statistics:Total running time (sec) 1.87Trials/second (average) 5,351Random numbers per sec 10,702

Crystal Ball data:Assumptions 2 Correlations 0 Correlated groups 0Decision variables 0Forecasts 1

Forecasts

Forecast: VAN SOCIAL Cell: I39

Summary:Certainty level is 70.57%Certainty range is from 0 to InfinitoEntire range is from -88,216,319 to 110,543,970 Base case is 14,978,978 After 10,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 267,350

Statistics: Forecast valuesTrials 10,000Mean 14,882,442 Median 14,816,329 Mode ---Standard Deviation 26,735,028 Variance 7.15E+14Skewness 0.0360Kurtosis 2.97Coeff. of Variability 1.80Minimum -88,216,319 Maximum 110,543,970 Range Width 198,760,289 Mean Std. Error 267,350

Forecast: VAN SOCIAL Cell: I39

Percentiles: Forecast values0% -88,216,319 10% -19,014,564 20% -8,025,035 30% 434,002 40% 7,933,796 50% 14,813,830 60% 21,799,418 70% 28,777,306 80% 37,454,516 90% 49,379,808 100% 110,543,970

End of Forecasts

Anexo N B 6

Crystal Ball Report - Full

Anexo B6- Analisis de Riesgo.xls

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Assumptions

Assumption: Beneficio Cell: M45

Normal distribution with parameters:Mean 1.00Std. Dev. 0.10

Assumption: Inversin Cell: P45

Normal distribution with parameters:Mean 1.00Std. Dev. 0.10

End of Assumptions

End of Sensitivity Charts

End of Scatter Charts

Sensitivity Charts

Scatter Chart

Report