Animal Agriculture InAnimal Agriculture InThe Coming DecadeThe Coming Decade

Balancing social pressures in wealthy countries Balancing social pressures in wealthy countries with increasing global demand for meat proteinwith increasing global demand for meat protein

Three Major US DriversThree Major US Drivers

Anthropomorphism/Animal RightsAnthropomorphism/Animal Rights AffluenceAffluence Agriculture AlienationAgriculture Alienation

April 2004, April 2004, Delta Delta SKYSKY MagazineMagazine

“My fur-babies are an integral part of my daily life. I’m told we even look alike…They sense my moods, never judge, know when to play and when to comfort me…”

Entities Enacting GuardianshipEntities Enacting Guardianship Wanaque, NJ ,May 2004Wanaque, NJ ,May 2004

Woodstock, NY, February 2004Woodstock, NY, February 2004

San Francisco, CA, January 2003San Francisco, CA, January 2003

Amherst, MA, April 2002Amherst, MA, April 2002

Menomonee Falls, WI, March 2002Menomonee Falls, WI, March 2002

Sherwood, AR, September 2001Sherwood, AR, September 2001

West Hollywood, CA, February 2001West Hollywood, CA, February 2001

Berkeley, CA, February 2001Berkeley, CA, February 2001

Boulder, CO, July 2000Boulder, CO, July 2000

State of Rhode Island, State of Rhode Island, July 2001July 2001

States Considering Non-Economic States Considering Non-Economic Damages – Wrongful Injury/DeathDamages – Wrongful Injury/Death

Legislation Introduced:Legislation Introduced:• CaliforniaCalifornia• ConnecticutConnecticut• MarylandMaryland• New YorkNew York• New JerseyNew Jersey

•MassachusettsMassachusetts•MinnesotaMinnesota•MississippiMississippi•Rhode IslandRhode Island•TennesseeTennessee

McDonald’s Five DriversMcDonald’s Five Drivers Democratized LuxuryDemocratized Luxury

• More consumers can afford items formerly considered More consumers can afford items formerly considered luxuriesluxuries

AuthenticityAuthenticity• Consumers desire fresh unprocessed or minimally Consumers desire fresh unprocessed or minimally

processed foodsprocessed foods WellnessWellness

• Demand is rising for food products that promote healthier Demand is rising for food products that promote healthier lifestyleslifestyles

Time ConstraintsTime Constraints• Americans are working longer hours, both mom and dadAmericans are working longer hours, both mom and dad

TechnologyTechnology• Consumers are growing more accustomed to new Consumers are growing more accustomed to new

technology and to more sophisticated levels of ittechnology and to more sophisticated levels of it

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Share of personal consumption expenditures spent Share of personal consumption expenditures spent on food consumed at home by selected countrieson food consumed at home by selected countries

The Consumer DynamicThe Consumer Dynamic American’s spend such a small percentage American’s spend such a small percentage

of their income on food that they can of their income on food that they can demand food –demand food –• Where they want itWhere they want it• When they want itWhen they want it• In the portion they want itIn the portion they want it• Prepared in the manner of preferencePrepared in the manner of preference• Produced in a socially responsible manner Produced in a socially responsible manner

as defined by the individual consumeras defined by the individual consumer

The Result?The Result? A market opportunity, not a regulatory A market opportunity, not a regulatory

requirement.requirement.• Companies and producers respond by filling niche Companies and producers respond by filling niche

markets.markets. Organic, antibiotic free, family farmed, free range, welfare Organic, antibiotic free, family farmed, free range, welfare

friendly, etc.friendly, etc.

• Regulatory role is to ensure safety and access to Regulatory role is to ensure safety and access to markets for both producers and consumers.markets for both producers and consumers.

• Market role is to respond quickly and effectively to Market role is to respond quickly and effectively to rapidly changing consumer dynamics.rapidly changing consumer dynamics.

Attitude Statement Agreement• Respondents strongly believe that their choices shouldn’t be dictated to by activists – very

few support animals having the same rights as humans.

23

52

55

79

86

0 50 100%

Q: Please tell me how much you agree with each of the following statements. (SHOW STATEMENTS) Would you say you…? Base: Total Sample (n=1002)

%

% Agree Strongly or Somewhat

Consumers should have the right to choose what they eat and not be dictated to by a small minority of activists

While it is important to be concerned about how farm animals are raised, there is nothing wrong with raising

animals solely for food purposes

It is only a small minority of farmers and ranchers who fail to take proper care of their animals’ well being

Farmers and ranchers treat their animals well routinely

Animals have the same rights as human beings

%

Q: Would you be willing to pay ___ more for food that is labeled ‘humanely raised’?Base: Total Sample (n=1002)

11

2331

0

50

100

5% 10% 20%

% Cumulative willingness to pay

more

Premium Level

Cumulative Percentage

Willingness to Pay More For ‘Humanely Raised’ Food

• Three in ten are willing to pay 5% more, only one in ten 20% more.

Advocate Believability–Food Quality and Safety

Top Two Box %

20

21

22

22

23

27

33

34

34

36

39

46

47

0 50%%

A family physician

The Food and Drug Administration

American Dairy Association

A dietician

The US Department of Agriculture

Physicians Committee on Responsible Medicine

An FDA representative

A USDA representative

The National Cattleman’s Beef Association

The Center for Science and the Public Interest

An agricultural extension agent

Consumer Advocate Groups

A farmer or rancher

Q: Now please think about various people and organizations in the U.S. that occasionally speak publicly and/or issue public statements concerning

THE TREATMENT OF FARM ANIMALS ON FARMS AND RANCHES AND IN FOOD PROCESSING. How believable would you view each of the following types of individuals or groups using a scale from 1 to 7 where 1 means not believable at all and 7 means extremely believable? How believable would you consider…?Base: Total Sample (n=1002)

• A family physician and a dietician are the most believable advocates for food quality and safety.

Advocate Believability – Food Quality and Safety (cont’d)

Top Two Box %

%%

3

4

7

9

10

11

15

15

17

19

0 50

The National Pork Board

The Animal Agriculture Alliance

The United Egg Producers

An environmental activist

A grocery store representative

A restaurant representative

A well-known Hollywood actor or actress

A beef, pork, poultry, or dairy food processor

A politician

An animal rights activist

Q: Now please think about various people and organizations in the U.S. that occasionally speak publicly and/or issue public statements concerning

THE TREATMENT OF FARM ANIMALS ON FARMS AND RANCHES AND IN FOOD PROCESSING. How believable would you view each of the following types of individuals or groups using a scale from 1 to 7 where 1 means not believable at all and 7 means extremely believable? How believable would you consider…?Base: Total Sample (n=1002)

• A politician and a well-known Hollywood actor or actress are the least believable advocates for food quality and safety.

Influence of Animal Rights Groups• The activities of animal rights groups have little influence on respondents food

choices.

3 4 19 31 39 4

0% 50% 100%

Extremely influential Very influential Somewhat influentialNot very influential Not at all influential Unsure

Q:. How influential are the activities and/or advertisements of animal rights groups on your decisions about what products to buy? Would you say…?Base: Total Sample (n=1002)

Increased Global DemandIncreased Global Demand From 2002 – 2025, a 25% increase in From 2002 – 2025, a 25% increase in

population, 1.6 billion more mouths to feed.population, 1.6 billion more mouths to feed. If per capita meat consumption were If per capita meat consumption were

constant we would see a 25% increase in constant we would see a 25% increase in demand.demand.

Per capita incomes are projected to rise, Per capita incomes are projected to rise, fueling an increase in meat consumption.fueling an increase in meat consumption.

Year Global populationActual population

increase

% population increase

1965 3,334,674,000 - -1970 3,692,492,000 357,618,000 10.71975 4,068,109,000 375,617,000 10.21980 4,434,682,000 366,573,000 9.01985 4,830,979,000 396,297,000 8.91990 5,263,593,000 432,614,000 9.01995 5,674,380,000 410,787,000 7.82000 6,070,581,000 396,201,000 7.02005* 6,453,628,000 383,047,000 6.32010* 6,830,283,000 376,655,000 5.82015* 7,197,247,000 366,964,000 5.42020* 7,540,237,000 342,990,000 4.82025* 7,851,455,000 311,218,000 4.1

*Projected

U.N. Global Population Estimates and Projected Growth

Source: U.N. World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, Feb. 26, 2003, medium growth scenario

Per Capita GGDP in 1995 Dollars and Global Meat Production

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

1995

per

Cap

ita,

$

Per Capita GGDP, $, 1995

Per Capita GGDP in 1995 Dollars and Global Meat Production

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

1995

per

Cap

ita,

$

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Kilos m

eat per capita

Per Capita GGDP, $, 1995Per Capita meat production

YearPer Capita

GGDP, 1995 $Per capita meat production, kg

Global population, 1,000

Total meat production, mmt

1961 2,676 23.1 3,084,155 7.181971 3,714 27.8 3,767,615 104.571981 4,376 30.8 4,513,941 139.061991 4,992 34.4 5,345,750 183.842001 5,611 38.6 6,147,190 237.062025 7,333 46.7 7,851,455 366.45% Increase 2001-25 30.7 21.0 27.7 54.00

Global Per Capita and Total Meat Production, 1961-2025 (projected)

Year Beef, Veal Lamb, Mutton Pig Meat Poultry Misc. Total Meat

1961 27.68 4.93 24.74 8.95 4.88 71.181971 38.07 5.63 39.41 15.72 5.75 104.571981 45.94 5.86 52.99 27.52 6.77 139.061991 53.90 7.11 70.90 43.15 8.78 183.842001 56.21 7.57 91.29 71.05 11.41 237.062025 73.40 7.68 147.21 123.21 14.96 366.45% Increase 2001-25 30.6 1.4 61.2 73.4 31.1 54.6

Global Meat Production by Type, 1961-2025 (projected) mmt

World Harvested Hectares Per Capita

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Har

vest

ed h

ecta

res

per

cap

ita

21% reduction 2002-25

Area per capita for all grains, oilseeds, fiber crops, pulses, tubers, fruits, vegetables and tree crops.

PerspectivePerspective Today each person eats from the products Today each person eats from the products

of about .234 hectares.of about .234 hectares. By 2025 that shrinks to .186 hectares.By 2025 that shrinks to .186 hectares. To avoid converting wetlands and To avoid converting wetlands and

grasslands into production, we must grasslands into production, we must significantly increase yields beyond significantly increase yields beyond historical trends.historical trends.

YearsPounds of corn/acre

Pounds of broiler/acre

Pounds of hog/acre

Pounds of fed cattle/acre

1969-71 4,592 1,697 1,102 4591998-00 7,560 3,386 2.268 930% change 65 100 106 103

Thirty Years of Progress in U.S. Meat Production Productivity

How can we produce 366 million How can we produce 366 million additional metric tons of meat in 2025?additional metric tons of meat in 2025?

Significantly increase the per hectare yields of Significantly increase the per hectare yields of grains and oilseeds.grains and oilseeds.

Continue to improve feed efficiency.Continue to improve feed efficiency. Reduce wastage, particularly harvest and post Reduce wastage, particularly harvest and post

harvest losses of grains and oilseeds.harvest losses of grains and oilseeds. Find effective, cost efficient ways to meet Find effective, cost efficient ways to meet

environmental and animal welfare environmental and animal welfare requirements.requirements.

Continue to invest in and embrace technology.Continue to invest in and embrace technology.

Item Current 2025 target

Corn yield (bu./acre) 135 180Soybean yield (bu./acre) 35 47Broiler feed conversion ratio 1.9:1 1.5:1Pig feed conversion ratio 3.0:1 2.5:1Fed cattle feed conversion ratio 6.5:1 5.0:1Broiler production (bill. lb.) 32 41Pork production (bill. lb.) 20 31Beef production (bill. lb.) 26 34.0

Targets for U.S. Meat Production, 2025

The political challengeThe political challenge

Quoting from the IPC animal agriculture Quoting from the IPC animal agriculture task force proposal… task force proposal…

““The problem is that scientific The problem is that scientific assessments can only take one so far. At assessments can only take one so far. At some stage an informed judgment will be some stage an informed judgment will be necessary and that is where the necessary and that is where the arguments begin.”arguments begin.”

The task aheadThe task ahead 1.6 billion new people by 20251.6 billion new people by 2025 Dramatic increased pressure for meat Dramatic increased pressure for meat

productionproduction Must be accomplished while meeting Must be accomplished while meeting

increased environmental and animal welfare increased environmental and animal welfare requirementsrequirements

We need the stability of a science based We need the stability of a science based approach to facilitate investment and trade, approach to facilitate investment and trade, balanced with support for global balanced with support for global sustainability.sustainability.