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Annex E Lambeth Residents concerns on NLE transport modelling

Transport for Londons document Northern line extension Factsheet G:Impact of the Northern line extension on the Northern line and Kennington

Station states that The Northern line extension (NLE) has beendeveloped so that it meets [the Mayors] vision for London and fits withthe future transport network whereas in fact there is a risk that it willcause important sections of the Northern Line to cease to be a viabletransport solution, due to serious over-crowding.

Chapter 6 of the NLE TWA Environmental Statement shows that theBank branch of the Northern Line from Clapham Common to Moorgate iscurrently in the worst category for over-crowding, with more than 4people standing per square metre at peak times. The NLE is predicted tocarry 8,200 passengers from the new Nine Elms station to Kennington atwhich point trains from Kennington to Bank are expected to carry only1,200 of these passengers (14.6%).

Current observation of the numbers of passengers changing from aNorthbound, Bank branch train at Kennington would indicate thatconsiderably more than 14.6% of passengers opt to remain on the Bankbranch and TfL has yet to make a convincing argument as to why futurepassengers originating on the NLE would contradict the current trend. Infact TfL claims that once the NLE is running there will be only a 3%increase in peak traffic heading North on the Bank branch and state that

"the NLE results in only a small increase in usage on the Bank branch buta larger increase on the Charing Cross branch. Analysis shows that theseadditional passengers will not significantly effect crowding on the existingNorthern line" However in the same document they state "At Kennington,forecasts suggest an increase in the number of passengers interchangingbetween the Bank and Charing Cross branches". In fact, presumably withthat in mind, they now propose "To improve passenger flows between theplatforms we are seeking powers to construct up to two additional crosspassages linking each pair of platforms"

Contrast the supposed 3% increase in traffic with a proposed potential

increase of cross platform access by 50%.

TfL further state "As can be seen, although the increased demand doeslead to higher flows on these links, the increases themselves are smalland the overall flows still fall within the capacity of the line. As such, it isconsidered that these additional flows can be accommodated withouthaving a detrimental impact on the line or the wider network." These areadditional flows on a line already within the worst category forovercrowding.

The picture is confusing to say the least. But it becomes even moreconfusing when compared with previous passenger estimates within the

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same project. The SKM VNEB Transport Study Report, publishedDecember 2009 and once posted on the now defunct NLE website,predicted additional peak-time passengers heading North on the Bankbranch to be a more credible 7,000. However, in August 2010 the Multi-criteria Assessment of Route Options (NATA) report, published on the

same website, suddenly reduced that number to 1300. The currentestimate is 1200.

If the Northern Line is to remain a viable transport option for existingusers it is vital that the NLE does not introduce additional demand thatcannot be supported by the existing upstream infrastructure. The figuresabove show that TfLs latest predicted demand is not corroborated bytheir proposed action to increase cross platform access at Kennington.Equally, there have now been 3 different predictions of those numberswith the difference between the highest and the lowest being of amagnitude of more than 500%. These figures and the rationale behindthem need to be scrutinised.