annex i expert group greenhouse gas abatement policies in the transport sector gene mcglynn...

Annex I Expert GroupAnnex I Expert GroupAnnex I Expert GroupAnnex I Expert Group

Greenhouse Gas Abatement Policies in the Transport Sector

Gene McGlynn

Environment Directorate

OECD

16 - 18 February, 2000


1973-1997 - Transport +60%, Stationary +6%

1990-1997 - Transport +16%, Stationary +7%

Transport emissions around half of total increase in 1990s

OECD CO2 Emissions from Energy

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

Ind

ex

(1

97

3=

10

0)

Transport

Total

Stationary


Transport Emissions Selected EITs

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Mt

CO

2-eq

Poland

Bulgaria

Czech Republic

Hungary

Latvia

Slovakia

Estonia


Trends and DriversStationary Transport

Activity Shifts in economicstructure to lessenergy intensivestructure;increasing floorspace per capita

Rapid growth inpassenger andfreight volumes;lower load factorsin cars

Structure Electrification Increase in mostenergy intensivemodes (road and airtraffic) relative toothers


Trends and Drivers (cont’d)

Stationary Transport

Intensity Steady progress intechnical efficiencyimpeded by longturnover times;limited progress oncogeneration

Significanttechnologicalimprovementoutweighed byincrease in hedonicattributes

Fuel Lots of fuelswitching to gasand, previously,nuclear; reasonablerenewables withhydro

Limited penetrationof (somewhat)lower emissionspetroleum fuels;very littlerenewables


Issues for Policy-Makers

Dispersed sources Limited alternative fuels Direct links to lifestyles Politically charged Many policy options outside

environment and transport fields


Elements of a Policy Mix Market reforms - consider environmental

impacts Fuel pricing - structure and level Voluntary agreements - need supporting

policies Urban development - slow and difficult,

but important Address travel attitudes and behaviour Link with other policy goals

TransportStationary Energy Other

ModalShift

TransportSubstitution

FuelEfficiency

AlternativeFuels

Carbon taxes/Tradable Permits

Fuel Taxes

“Traditional” VAs

EU VA

Sectors

Measures

etc.

Technical Approaches

Social Factors Preferred Strategic Approaches

Economic Factors Assessment Criteria

Technical Factors Domestic/International Action

Strategy


Questions What are the key social, technical and economic factors driving

strategy choice in the transport sector? What is the potential to control emissions in this rapidly growing sector in the short and long term?

Is quantitative information available to assess the relative advantages of alternative transport policy options? What evaluation systems are needed to assess different policies?

How far can countries rely on voluntary agreements with vehicle manufacturers to deliver transport sector emissions abatement, in the Kyoto time frame and beyond?

Is the focus on policies to address passenger road transport at the expense of promising policy approaches in other areas of transport?

Is there a role for international collaboration in transport policy-making? If so, in what areas?

annex i expert group greenhouse gas abatement policies in the transport sector gene mcglynn...

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