announcements urban forestry project for one more week. turn in your writing assignments today and...

Announcements

Urban Forestry project for one more week.

Turn in your writing assignments today and submit the identifications of the other group's photos to Cici.

Discussion on readings on Thursday – the two short Science articles about rice domestication.

Review examples from students

Urban Forestry project

Be organized!!!

Spend the extra minute to improve the photo and digital photos are cheap!! Take a lot and throw away a lot!

Is the plastic working??

October 28, 2011 – 7 PM – Allen Theatre

At a global scale, we are At a global scale, we are using natural resources using natural resources

faster than they are being faster than they are being renewed by natural renewed by natural

processes.processes.

Conservation BiologyConservation Biology

At a global scale, we are At a global scale, we are using natural resources using natural resources

faster than they are being faster than they are being renewed by natural renewed by natural

processes.processes.

The Conservation EndgameThe Conservation Endgame

There is a global There is a global imbalance imbalance between between consumption and consumption and biodiversity.biodiversity.

The rich and developed The rich and developed countries are driving this countries are driving this ‘natural resource debt’ ‘natural resource debt’ through excessive and through excessive and pointless consumption.pointless consumption.


How do we explain the importance of the natural world to people who only know and understand a human urban environment?

Now, more people live in cities than on farms.

So, we have an imbalance between city and rural people.


Jared Diamond, a famous scientist who has written several internationally best-selling books, presented several examples of how societies choose to collapse or choose to prosper in his book entitled, “COLLAPSE”.

He hoped to discover what makes societies succeed and fail, as they reach the limits of their traditional use of resources.

East Asian Monsoon

东亚季风Fossil evidence of climate change and rainfall patterns is highly correlated with the rise and fall of civilizations in China.

Yancheva et al. Yancheva et al. demonstrated that demonstrated that sudden changes in sudden changes in climate led to the climate led to the downfall of downfall of civilizations on civilizations on both side of the both side of the Atlantic Ocean.Atlantic Ocean.

Yancheva et al. Yancheva et al. NatureNature (2007) (2007)

Civilizations are most Civilizations are most vulnerable to climate changes vulnerable to climate changes when they are near the natural when they are near the natural limits.limits.

If most of the population can If most of the population can barely find enough water, a barely find enough water, a prolonged drought can be prolonged drought can be disastrous. disastrous.

Al Gore, recent Nobel Prize Al Gore, recent Nobel Prize winner, has warned about the winner, has warned about the dangers of global climate dangers of global climate change.change.


In Western Chess, In Western Chess, the player that the player that captures the other’s captures the other’s king wins.king wins.

Many books of Many books of strategy have been strategy have been written.written.

We can learn deep We can learn deep strategy from these strategy from these simple games. simple games.

Chess has two distinct Chess has two distinct phases:phases:

- the opening- the opening 开局开局- the endgame- the endgame 终局终局


If one player does not easily win, If one player does not easily win, the game will reach the 'endgame'.the game will reach the 'endgame'.

The endgame:The endgame:Each player has only a few pieces left.Each player has only a few pieces left.The pieces are balanced in power.The pieces are balanced in power.

The situation can last for a long The situation can last for a long time and can result in a ‘draw’, time and can result in a ‘draw’, where no player can win.where no player can win.

The endgame requires a radical shift in The endgame requires a radical shift in strategy:strategy:

the loss of a single piece can be fatalthe loss of a single piece can be fatal each move has high impact and major consequences.each move has high impact and major consequences.


The conservation endgame is not a The conservation endgame is not a match between equal competitors.match between equal competitors.

Human population and Human population and consumption are still exploding.consumption are still exploding.

Most people do not know Most people do not know anything about natural resources.anything about natural resources.

We obviously need a radical We obviously need a radical change in strategy and we must change in strategy and we must actively manage these resourcesactively manage these resourcesWe are obviously reaching We are obviously reaching

the limits of our ability to the limits of our ability to generate wealth from generate wealth from traditional ways of natural traditional ways of natural resource use.resource use.


ALL of Southeast Asia comprises one huge biodiversity ALL of Southeast Asia comprises one huge biodiversity hotspot!!!hotspot!!!

What’s so special about Southeast Asia?What’s so special about Southeast Asia?

Myers et al. 2000

Relatively few active scientists and high levels of endemism

Sodhi et al. 2004

What’s so special about Southeast Asia?What’s so special about Southeast Asia?

►Very complex geological setting►Globally important ecoregion►Biogeographic crossroads►Highly endemic vertebrate fauna

►Subject of Ecoregional Conservation Assessment by the Nature Conservancy

compiled 32 Landsat imagesDigitized geological mapDigital elevation mapComplete collections database from the National Herbarium of the Netherlands in LeidenFour week ground truthing survey of 17 locations across the islandForest change analysis for five key sitesRemote sensing analysis to determine forest condition

The island of Sulawesi in Indonesia is a good case study for developing effective strategies in the absence of detailed biotic information.

Are protected areas enough?Are protected areas enough?

Sulawesi - A poorly known biodiversity hotspotSulawesi - A poorly known biodiversity hotspot

Defined by having both major concentrations of species richness and large numbers of endemic species.

Given high priority for protection.

Remote sensing research

32 separate satellite images!

No automated classification algorithm would give reliable results across all images

Eventually, the entire island was ‘hand-classified’ using a base map of forest/non-forest, visual inspection of image, and examination of the supervised classification results.

Top Twenty Conservation

Sites

• Based upon total cumulative ranks

•A full range of portfolio sites and protected areas are included in the top twenty.

•Additionally, the ranking system can be used at smaller geographic scales to identify conservation ‘frontlines’.

Cannon et al. 2007

Human population growth near PAs

In a careful study of population change in the buffer zone around PAs, found a widespread trend of greater growth in buffer zones in comparison to rural areas in general

Wittemyer et al 2008

Human population growth near PAs

Proportion of growth was substantial and increased growth was correlated with deforestation within 50km of PA. Wittemyer et al 2008

Moth to the flame

Positive correlation between human population in PA buffer zones and Donor investment

PA staff density

Positive correlation between human population in PA buffer zone and deforestation

Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+ (REDD+)

REDD+: will it be a good or bad thing for tropical countries?

The global carbon market could potentially funnel billions of dollars into countries like Indonesia.

These dollars buy the right to pollute given the tropical country maintains its forests.

Corruption is wide and deep in many countries and corporations.

Great potential for cheating and missed targets.

Conservation Reserve Program by the USDA has been a big succcess

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)

Over-production and marginal production sites were leased by the government for fallow.

Erosion has been considerably reduced on marginal lands.

Wildlife populations have rebounded.

Most of these lands are returning to pasture and can provide good grazing. In this area, there is a problem with increased woody plant growth, which some see as negative.

Practical realities

Academic publication vs. practical action Do we need more detailed models?

More spatially explicit and site specific models Less grand generalizations

Are we looking for our car keys with an electron microscope?

Many of the pressing conservation issues are obvious: law enforcement, less consumption, breaking down the separation between ‘wild’ and ‘domestic’

The rule of law

Fundamentally, we need a new era of environmental accountability.

If current laws, both nationally and internationally, were strictly enforced, the situation would already be much better

Some form of tracking system for natural resources, e.g. DNA fingerprints or isotopic composition of tissue

Remote sensing can help fight both illegal forest conversion and the spread of forest fires

The increasing spread of democratic governments may help fight indigenous cultures of corruption and nepotism.

Conservation realitiesGeneral conservation challenges

Limited money, energy, awareness, and expertise.

Simple ignorance of major patterns of biodiversity and ecology.

International conservation programs often suffer from apparent Alzheimer’s. Local NGOs are often more effective.

General conservation strengths

Young, energetic, and concerned people can make a difference through organization and outreach.

Even in the most corrupt governments, there are pockets of honesty. Find them.

Forests are resilient and can suffer substantial damage without collapse.

http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/living_planet_report/living_planet_report_graphics/lpi_interactive/

announcements urban forestry project for one more week. turn in your writing assignments today and...

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