annual and special meeting of the shareholdersin addition, reference is made to oil and gas in...
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1
Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
THE PREMIUM VALUE DEFINED GROWTH INDEPENDENT
Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ2
Canadian Natural’s Mission StatementCanadian Natural’s Mission Statement
To develop people to work togetherto create value
for the Company’s shareholdersby doing it right
with fun and integrity.
To Live By While Creating ValueTo Live By While Creating Value
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Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ3
Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein by reference constitute forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “plan”, “estimate”, “target”, “continue”, “could” “intend”, “may”, “potential”, “predict”, “should”, “will”, “objective”, “project”, “forecast”, “goal”, “guidance”, “outlook”, “effort” “seeks”, “schedule” or expressions of a similar nature suggesting future outcome or statements regarding an outlook. Statements relating to “reserves” are deemed to be forward-looking statements as they involve the implied assessment based on certain estimates and assumptions that the reserves described can be profitably produced in the future. There are numerous uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of proved crude oil and natural gas reserves and in projecting future rates of production and the timing of development expenditures. The total amount or timing of actual future production may vary significantly from reserve and production estimates.
These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks and the reader should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements as there can be no assurance that the plans, initiatives or expectations upon which they are based will occur.
The forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about Canadian Natural Resources Limited (the “Company”) and the industry in which the Company operates, which speak only as of the date such statements were made or as of the date of the report or document in which they are contained and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among others: general economic and business conditions which will, among other things, impact demand for and market prices of the Company’s products; volatility of and assumptions regarding crude oil and natural gas prices; fluctuations in currency and interest rates; assumptions on which the Company’s current guidance is based; economic conditions in the countries and regions in which the Company conducts business; political uncertainty, including actions of or against terrorists, insurgent groups or other conflict including conflict between states; industry capacity; ability of the Company to implement its business strategy, including exploration and development activities; impact of competition; the Company’s defense of lawsuits; availability and cost of seismic, drilling and other equipment; ability of the Company and its subsidiaries to complete its capital programs; the Company’s and its subsidiaries’ ability to secure adequate transportation for its products; unexpected difficulties in mining, extracting or upgrading the Company’s bitumen products; potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; ability of the Company to attract the necessary labour required to build its thermal and oil sands mining projects; operating hazards and other difficulties inherent in the exploration for and production and sale of crude oil and natural gas; availability and cost of financing; the Company’s and its subsidiaries’ success of exploration and development activities and their ability to replace and expand crude oil and natural gas reserves; timing and success of integrating the business and operations of acquired companies; production levels; imprecision of reserve estimates and estimates of recoverable quantities of crude oil, bitumen, natural gas and liquids not currently classified as proved; actions by governmental authorities; government regulations and the expenditures required to comply with them (especially safety and environmental laws and regulations and the impact of climate change initiatives on operating costs); asset retirement obligations; the adequacy of the Company’s provision for taxes; and other circumstances affecting revenues and expenses. Certain of these factors are discussed in more detail under the heading “Risk Factors”. The Company’s operations have been, and at times in the future may be affected by political developments and by federal, provincial and local laws and regulations such as restrictions on production, changes in taxes, royalties and other amounts payable to governments or governmental agencies, price or gathering rate controls and environmental protection regulations. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should any of the Company’s assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary in material respects from those projected in the forward-looking statements. The impact of any one factor on a particular forward-looking statement is not determinable with certainty as such factors are dependent upon other factors, and the Company’s course of action would depend upon its assessment of the future considering all information then available.
Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed in this report could also have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that the expectations conveyed by the forward-looking statements are reasonable based on information available to it on the date such forward-looking statements are made, no assurances can be given as to future results, levels of activity and achievements. All subsequent forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, attributable to the Company or persons acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Except as required by law, the Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements should circumstances or Management’s estimates or opinions change.
Forward Looking StatementsForward Looking Statements
CNQ4
Special Note Regarding Currency, Production and ReservesIn this document, all references to dollars refer to Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated. Production data is presented on a before royalties basis unless otherwise stated. In addition, reference is made to oil and gas in common units called barrel of oil equivalent (“boe”). A boe is derived by converting six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of crude oil (6 mcf:1 bbl). This conversion may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation, since the 6mcf:1bbl ratio is based on an energy equivalency at the burner tip and does not represent the value equivalency at the well head.Canadian Natural retains qualified independent reserve evaluators to evaluate 100% of the Company’s conventional proved, as well as proved and probable crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas reserves and prepare Evaluation Reports on these reserves. Canadian Natural has been granted an exemption from National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101”), which prescribes the standards for the preparation and disclosure of reserves and related information for companies listed in Canada. This exemption allows the Company to substitute United States Security and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) requirements for certain disclosures required under NI 51-101. There are three principal differences between the two standards. The first is the requirement under NI 51-101 to disclose both proved, and proved and probable reserves, as well as the related net present value of future net revenues using forecast prices and costs. The second is in the definition of proved reserves; however, as discussed in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (“COGEH”), the standards that NI 51-101 employs, the difference in estimated proved reserves based on constant pricing and costs between the two standards is not material. The third is the requirement to disclose a gross reserve reconciliation (before the consideration of royalties). Canadian Natural discloses its reserve reconciliation net of royalties in adherence to SEC requirements.The Company has disclosed proved conventional reserves and the Standardized Measure of discounted future net cash flows using year-end constant prices and costs as mandated by the SEC. The Company has elected to provide the net present value of these same conventional proved reserves as well as its conventional proved and probable reserves and the net present value of these reserves under the same parameters as additional voluntary information. In addition to the constant price and cost scenario, Canadian Natural has also elected to provide both proved, and proved and probable conventional reserves and the net present value of these reserves using forecast prices and costs as voluntary additional information.Conventional reserves and net present values of these reserves presented for years prior to 2003 were evaluated in accordance with the standards of National Policy 2-B which has now been replaced by NI 51-101. The stated reserves were reasonably evaluated as economically productive using year-end costs and prices escalated at appropriate rates throughout the productive life of the properties.
Canadian Natural’s independent reserve evaluators utilize the proved conventional reserve definition as prescribed by SEC in Regulation S-X 210.4-10 and the conventional proved and probable reserves definitions as prescribed under NI 51-101 in COGEH. Mining reserves are evaluated as prescribed in SEC Industry Guide 7. Internal estimates of Contingent Resources also utilize the definitions as prescribed under NI 51-101 in COGEH.
In this presentation Canadian Natural may disclose contingent resources as additional information. These are internal estimates that utilize the definition within section 5 of the COGE Handbook as prescribed under NI 51-101. Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Additionally engineering and geotechnical appraisal through drilling, testing and/or production is required before the contingent resources can be classified as reserves. There is no certainty that any portion of the resources will be commercially viable to produce. Estimated Ultimate Recovery ("EUR"), as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers/ World Petroleum Council/ American Association of Petroleum Geologists/ Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers Petroleum Resources Management System ("SPE-PRMS"), is the potentially recoverable accumulation that includes reserves, resources and quantities already produced. In this presentation, the EUR Canadian Natural discloses includes only reserves and contingent resources. Canadian Natural also discloses discovered petroleum initially in-place which is the quantity of petroleum that is within a known accumulation prior to production. There is no certainty that any portion of these volumes will be commercially viable to produce.Special Note Regarding non-GAAP Financial MeasuresManagement's discussion and analysis includes references to financial measures commonly used in the oil and gas industry, such as cash flow, cash flow per share and EBITDA (net earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation depletion and amortization, asset retirement obligation accretion, unrealized foreign exchange, stock-based compensation expense and unrealized risk management activity). These financial measures are not defined by generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) and therefore are referred to as non-GAAP measures. The non-GAAP measures used by the Company may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. The Company uses these non-GAAP measures to evaluate the performance of the Company and of its business segments. The non-GAAP measures should not be considered an alternative to or more meaningful than net earnings, as determined in accordance with Canadian GAAP, as an indication of the Company's performance.Volumes shown are Company share before royalties unless otherwise stated.
Reporting DisclosuresReporting Disclosures
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Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ5
Strong Track Record; Even Brighter FutureStrong Track Record; Even Brighter Future
CNQ6
Production Mix (2009)
North Sea7%
Offshore West Africa6%
NorthAmerica
87%
• Canadian based E&P company with international exposure
• ~US$50 billion enterprise value• 575 mboe/d - 2009
– 62% crude oil weighted• ~605 - 662 mboe/d – 2010F • Returns focused • Major oil sands player
– Major in-situ producer with several projects in inventory
– Major mining project currently ramping production
The Premium Value, Defined Growth IndependentThe Premium Value, Defined Growth Independent
Canadian NaturalCanadian Natural
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Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ7
A History of Value CreationA History of Value Creation
$0$2$4$6$8
$10$12$14$16
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009$0
$20$40$60$80
$100$120$140
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
3
6
9
12
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Pretax Net Asset Value Per Share*Cash Flow Per Share*
Daily Production Per 10,000 Shares (boe/d)
Gross Reserves Per Share* (boe)
Gas Oil Mining SCOGas Oil
*Refer to page 1 of the 2009 Canadian Natural Annual Report for a detailed description of notes. Reserves include proved and probable. 2009 oil reserves include Horizon SCO.
21% CAGR21% CAGR
8% CAGR8% CAGR
17% CAGR17% CAGR
27% CAGR27% CAGR
Consistent GrowthConsistent Growth
CNQ8
Revenue
Net earnings
Adjusted net earnings from operations
Cash flow from operations
Net capital expenditures
Long-term debt
Debt to book capitalization
$ millions 2008
16,173
4,985
3,492
6,969
7,451
12,596
41%
2009
11,078
1,580
2,689
6,090
2,997
9,658
33%
2009 Financial Highlights2009 Financial Highlights
Strong, Disciplined Financial PerformanceStrong, Disciplined Financial Performance
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Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ9
2008
3161,495
565
1,9601,946
12,053
990
96%
Daily production, before royaltiesCrude oil and natural gas liquids (mbbl)Natural gas (mmcf)Barrels of oil equivalent (mboe)
Proved reserves, after royaltiesCrude oil and natural gas (mmboe)Mining, SCO (mmbbl)
Core undeveloped land (net acres 000’s)
Drilling activity (net wells), excluding strat/service
Drilling success rate
2009
3551,315
575
3,557N/A
10,993
799
94%
2009 Operating Highlights2009 Operating Highlights
Production and Reserves GrowthProduction and Reserves Growth
CNQ10
Daily production, before royalties
Crude oil and natural gas liquids (mbbl/d)
Natural gas (mmcf/d)
Barrels of oil equivalent (mboe/d)
Net earnings ($mm)
Adjusted net earnings from operations ($mm)
Cash flow from operations ($mm)
Debt to book capitalization
Q4/09
366
1,250
575
455
667
1,703
33%
Q1/10
406
1,226
611
866
658
1,505
31%
Q1/09
330
1,369
558
305
727
1,516
41%
First Quarter HighlightsFirst Quarter Highlights
Disciplined Production GrowthDisciplined Production Growth
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Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ11
Our StrategyOur Strategy
• Capital allocation to maximize value• Defined growth / value enhancement plans
by product / basin• Balance
–Product mix–Project time horizons–Drill bit and acquisitions–Strong balance sheet
• Opportunistic acquisitions• Control costs through area knowledge and domination of core
focus areas
A Proven, Effective StrategyA Proven, Effective Strategy
CNQ12
Canadian Natural’s OperationsCanadian Natural’s Operations
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Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ13
Canadian Natural’s PositionCanadian Natural’s Position
• Strong, low-risk asset base– Includes world class oil sands in-situ and mining developments
–Largest producer of heavy crude oil in western Canada
–Largest net undeveloped land base in western Canada
–Second largest producer of natural gas in western Canada
• Balanced and large size reduces risk
• Track record of value creation
• Proven / committed management, strong teams
• Winning exploitation-based strategy
• Defined plan for profitable growth
• Focused on value creation
Consistent History of Value CreationConsistent History of Value Creation
CNQ14
Balanced Asset BaseBalanced Asset Base
• Strengths–Allows optimal capital allocation to generate high returns–Mitigates commodity price risk–Technical, operational expertise across assets
• Low Cost Producer
–Allows opportunistic counter cycle acquisitions–Provides more diverse opportunities for value growth–Allows a more mid to long term perspective on capital allocation
• Challenges–More difficult to manage–Not a pure play investment–Management allocates capital versus investors
Consistent History of Value CreationConsistent History of Value Creation
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Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ15
• Strong oil prices
• Narrow heavy differentials solid heavy oil pricing
• Weak and projected weaker natural gas pricing
• Uncertainty in the economic recovery
–US$ weakness
–Expected increases in interest rates
• Increasing environmental uncertainty / costs
Today’s EnvironmentToday’s Environment
Balanced Portfolio Favorable in All Economic CyclesBalanced Portfolio Favorable in All Economic Cycles
CNQ16
Canadian Natural2010 Overall PlanCanadian Natural2010 Overall Plan
1) Pay down debt2) Achieve reliable Horizon Oil Sands production
–Lessons learned, progress expansion cost estimate3) Conserve our land base
–Expiries–Drainage
4) Significant primary heavy oil program5) Progress thermal development6) Prepare Kirby for sanction7) Progress Pelican Lake polymer flood8) Increased focus on EOR in light oil projects9) Leverage technology10) Focus on value growth not production growth
Focus on Value GrowthFocus on Value Growth
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Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ17
InternationalInternational
CNQ18
International OperationsInternational Operations
• North Sea–Exploitation based value creation–Delivering field life extension–Generates significant free cash flow–Opportunity for acquisition in future years–Leveraging technical strengths in Africa
• Offshore West Africa–High return, long lead projects–Generates significant free cash flow–Mature Olowi exploitation project
• First production achieved April 2009Progress South Africa
Focus on Free Cash Flow While Setting Up For Future ExpansionFocus on Free Cash Flow While Setting Up For Future Expansion
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Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ19
International North SeaInternational North Sea
• Exploitation base similar to WCSB
• Operate ~99% and own ~80% of production
• Infill drilling / recompletions & waterflood optimization
• 1 drill string operating in 2010 - April
• 1 well and 3 well interventions
Value Creation Through Exploitation ApproachValue Creation Through Exploitation Approach
NinianMurchison
Strathspey
Columba
Lyell
TiffanyToniThelma
Kyle
Banff
NorthernNorth Sea
CentralNorth Sea
CNQ Lands Oil Field
Playfair
Edinburgh
Hutton
ScotlandAberdeen
CNQ20
International Offshore Côte d’IvoireInternational Offshore Côte d’Ivoire• East Espoir
– First oil achieved in 2002– 4 infills drilled in 2005/6– FPSO expansion
progressing in 2010• West Espoir development
– First oil achieved July 2006increased to ~13 mboe/d in 2007
• Baobab development– First oil achieved in 2005– Sand handling and infill
drilling program in 2008/9• 4 wells back on production
Area for Light Oil BalanceArea for Light Oil Balance
Acajou
Atlantic Ocean
West EspoirEast Espoir
KossipoBaobab
Foxtrot
Mantra
Panthere
CNQ Lands Oil FieldGas FieldProspects
Acajou
Jacqueville
Côte d’Ivoire
11
Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ21
International Offshore GabonInternational Offshore Gabon
• Successfully installed all 4 platforms at the Olowi Field
– Full commissioning expected in 2010
• Completed drilling on the CSP in Q4/09 and currently drilling on Platform B
• First oil delivered from CSP– April 2009 - 3,500 bbl/d current
• First Oil delivered from Platform B– April 2010 - 8,500 bbl/d
THEMIS
OLOWI
GabonBIGORNEAU
Atlantic Ocean
Libreville (~545km)
Platform A
Platform B
Platform C (CSP)
Platform D
CNQ Lands
Olowi Field – Rough Start But Continue to Maximize Future ValueOlowi Field – Rough Start But Continue to Maximize Future Value
CNQ22
South Africa – Big E PotentialSouth Africa – Big E Potential
Aghulas Current
1000m water depth
CNRI 11B / 12B
• Challenging conditions• Finalizing Fiscal Terms
100km
CNRI Prospect
Existing production
P50 STOIP of 3 Billion BarrelsP50 STOIP of 3 Billion Barrels
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Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ23
North America OperationsNorth America Operations
Defined Growth Plan - Disciplined DevelopmentDefined Growth Plan - Disciplined Development
CNQ24
Canadian Natural Gas AssetsCanadian Natural Gas Assets
NW AB433 mmcf/d
NE BC304 mmcf/d
Northern Plains302 mmcf/d
SE SK3 mmcf/d
Southern Plains
151 mmcf/d
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Note: Reflects Q1/10 actual production, before royalties.
• 2010 plan–Maintain development of
growth projects–Expand inventory–High grade
drilling program and optimize production
Disciplined Development of Strong Gas AssetsDisciplined Development of Strong Gas Assets
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Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ25
Natural Gas Core Area SummariesNatural Gas Core Area Summaries• North and South Plains
– Conventional exploitation• Shallow gas and HSC CBM
resource projects• Low risk, low cost, highly
profitable• Foothills
– High impact exploration
• NW Alberta– Resource projects - Deep
Basin and Montney• Repeatable, large scale
Balanced, Cost Effective GrowthBalanced, Cost Effective Growth
• NE British Columbia– Unconventional - Muskwa
and Montney• Low cost entry
Northern / Southern Plains
NE BC
Foothills
NW AB
CNQ Land
SKAB
BC
CNQ26
Heavy Oil AssetsHeavy Oil Assets
• Reliable conventional production – record ~ 600 wells
• Pelican Lake EOR development– Proved reserves of 255 million
barrels of oil equivalent– Probable reserves of 108 million
barrels of oil equivalent– Contingent resources of 198
million barrels of oil equivalent• Thermal in-situ development
– Significant resource potential in current plans
– ~285,000 bbl/d of additional in-situ production over next15 years
• Canadian Natural has competitive advantage via its vast land base
Birch Mountain(W. Horizon)
Gregoire
CNQ Land
Primrose(76 mbbl/d)
300 miles
Conventional Heavy Oil
(91 mbbl/d)
Kirby
Note: Reflects Q1/10 actual working interest production.
ABSK
Pelican Lake(37 mbbl/d)
Technology OptionTechnology Option
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Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000Ja
n-95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
Jan-
16
Jan-
17
Jan-
18
Jan-
19
Primary Waterflood Polymerflood
Pelican Lake Production ProfilePelican Lake Production Profile
(bbl/d)
CNQ28
Thermal Oil SandsPotentialThermal Oil SandsPotential
Estimated Bitumen in Place33 billion barrels total
Primrose11 billion barrels
KirbyGrouseLeismer
Birch MountainGregoireJackfish
Athabasca 22 billion barrels
33 Billion Barrels of Bitumen in Place33 Billion Barrels of Bitumen in Place
Contingent Resources4.5 billion barrels
Probable Reserves0.7 billion barrels
Proved Reserves0.7 billion barrels
Produced to Date0.3 billion barrels
15
Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ29
Thermal Heavy Oil Growth PlanThermal Heavy Oil Growth Plan
Oil Production TargetPhase Facility Capacity Timing
(bbl/d) (year)
1 Primrose North/South 80,000 On Stream2 Primrose East 40,000 On Stream3 Kirby 45,000 20134 Grouse 60,000 20145 Birch Mountain East 60,000 20166 Gregoire 1 60,000 20187 CSS - Follow-up Process 30,000 20188 Leismer 30,000 2020
405,000
• 30,000 - 60,000 bbl/d addition every 2 - 3 years
Growth for DecadesGrowth for Decades
CNQ30
Heavy Oil Three Pronged Marketing PlanHeavy Oil Three Pronged Marketing Plan
Cum
ulat
ive
Incr
emen
tal V
olum
e
DilSynbitWCS (Western Canadian Select)Synbit
Blending
Pipelines
Short TermUp to 5 years
Medium Term5 to 10 years
Long Term>10 years
Conversioncapacity
Total blend is 260 mbbl/d
CNQ 52%
Keystone (Patoka June 2010 and to Cushing Q4 2010)
Alberta Clipper June 2010
West Coast options (Gateway, TMX)
Texas Access USGC
Additional refinery conversion capacityRefining: cokers / hydrocrackersUpgrading: bitumen / heavy oil
CNQ has committed 100 mbbl/d to USGC
refiner
Access to Incremental Markets Over the Short, Medium and Long TermAccess to Incremental Markets Over the Short, Medium and Long Term
Keystone XL (Port Arthur Q4 2012)CNQ has
committed120 mbbl/d
NWU-1 12,500 B/D
16
Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ31
Heavy OilKeystone PipelineHeavy OilKeystone Pipeline• Transportation
– CNQ committed 120,000 bbl/d to the Keystone XL Pipeline Expansion to USGC for 20 years
• Mitigates logistical constraints– Narrows heavy oil differential
• Significantly reduces market risk for incremental production
• Alternative routing in the event of pipeline apportionment
• Supply– CNQ Committed 100,000 bbl/d to a major
US Gulf Coast refiner for 20 years– Keystone XL received NEB approval
March 2010
• Expandable to 1.5 million bbl/d
Q4 2010Q1 2013
Pipeline Access to New Markets is AvailablePipeline Access to New Markets is Available
Jun 2010
2012
CNQ32
Canadian Natural’s Mineable Assets -Horizon Oil SandsCanadian Natural’s Mineable Assets -Horizon Oil Sands• Mining resources
–16 billion barrels in place*, with best estimate recoverable of 6 billion barrels**• Phased development (SCO)
110 mbbl/d capacity(Phase 1)Expansion to 232 to 250 mbbl/dcapacity targetedFuture expansions to ~500 mbbl/d
• Significant free cash flow generation for decades
*Discovered initially-in-place estimate.**Includes mineable reserves and contingent resources.
UTS
SYN
SHC
SYN
SYN
DVN
PCASU
PCA
IOL
ECA
SU
SU
IOL
HSE
XOM
SHC
SU
SynencoSHC
XOM
ECA
ECA
Deer Creek
SU
FortMcMurray
~43
mile
s
CNQCNQ
CNQHorizon
Oil Sands
World Class OpportunityWorld Class Opportunity
17
Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ33
Horizon Production Ramp-upHorizon Production Ramp-up
• Production ramp-up plan–Ramp-up to design capacity of SCO planned by mid 2010
• Replacement / repair of equipment with premature failures and wear (Bad Actors) have delayed achieving full production sooner
• Focus is on fine tuning plant to design rates and sustained design rates
• Implementing lessons learned during 1st year of operations
• 2010 production–Guidance
• Annual equivalent daily production of 90,000 to 105,000 barrels SCO–Q1 2010 equivalent daily production was 86,995 barrels SCO –Mid-April 2010
• YTD equivalent daily production was >90,000 barrels SCO–Continuing to ramp-up to design rates
Ramp up to Reliable Production
CNQ34
Horizon 2010Horizon 2010
• Operations–Focus on reliable production, low cost producer
• Phase 2 / 3–Complete lessons learned from Phase 1–Develop a robust, yet flexible execution plan–Complete a more detailed cost estimate
18
Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ35
2009 2010F ChangeProduction (mboe/d) 575 605 - 662 10%
Cashflow ($mm)* $6,090 $6,800 - $7,200 15%
Capital ($mm)North America - Conventional $1,714 $2,761 61%North Sea $168 $233 39%Offshore West Africa $544 $260 (52%)Horizon $553 $785 42%
Total Organic Capital $2,979 $4,039 36%Property Acquisitions $18 $1,060Total $2,997 $5,099 70%
Free cash flow ($mm)** $3,093 $1,700 - $2,100
Canadian Natural2010 Capital BudgetCanadian Natural2010 Capital Budget
*2010 based on WTI US$85.00 and NYMEX US$4.60.**Cash flow less Capital.
10% Production Growth While Spending Only 73% of Cash Flow10% Production Growth While Spending Only 73% of Cash Flow
CNQ36
Canadian Natural2010 Overall PlanCanadian Natural2010 Overall Plan
1) Pay down debt2) Achieve reliable Horizon Oil Sands production
–Lessons learned, progress expansion cost estimate3) Conserve our land base
–Expiries–Drainage
4) Significant primary heavy oil program5) Progress thermal development6) Prepare Kirby for sanction7) Progress Pelican Lake polymer flood8) Increased focus on EOR in light oil projects9) Leverage technology10) Focus on value growth not production growth
Focus on Value GrowthFocus on Value Growth
19
Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
CNQ37
Canadian Natural AssetsCanadian Natural Assets
• Heavy crude oil–285,000 bbl/d incremental thermal oil–Dominant primary heavy oil position–Technology upside
• Natural gas–Ultimate drilling potential of >8,000 wells –Strong exposure to shale gas–Large land base in western Canada
• International–Baobab infill–Olowi development–South Africa exploration
• Horizon Oil Sands–Phase 1 onstream–Future - take production to ~500,000 bbl/d–Technology upside
Significant UpsideSignificant Upside
CNQ38
Canadian Natural AdvantageCanadian Natural Advantage
• Management, business philosophy, practice• Strong, balanced assets
–Vast opportunities• Balanced, proven, effective strategy• Control over capital allocation• Nimble
–Capture opportunities–Willingness to make tough decisions
• Significant free cash flow• Strong teams, excellent people• Canadian Natural culture
–Low cost–Execution focused
The Premium Value, Defined Growth IndependentThe Premium Value, Defined Growth Independent
20
Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders
May 6, 2010
THE PREMIUM VALUE DEFINED GROWTH INDEPENDENT
Canadian Natural Resources Limited
2500, 855 - 2 Street SWCalgary Alberta
T2P 4J8
phone: 403.517.6700fax: 403.517.7350
email: [email protected]
VALUE CREATION • RETURN ON CAPITAL • LOW-COST PRODUCER • RETURN ON ASSETS
THE FUTURE CLEARLY DEFINED