annual case study portfolio review july 1 2018 dec 31 … · the boq cfd trade returned 101.7%. the...
TRANSCRIPT
January 18th, 2019 A publication of Guppytraderscomsg Pte Ltd since 1996 CRN200409379K. Copyright © 2015
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Weekly for Saturday January 18th, 2019. Based on Thursday’s Close
CONTENTS
NAVIGATING 2019 pg1 ANNUAL CASE STUDY PORTFOLIO REVIEW July 1 2018 – Dec 31 2018 –
27.12% RETURN pg4 NO FLASH IN THE PAN pg11
NEWSLETTER OUTLOOK: RALLY TREND CHANGE pg12 READERS’ QUESTIONS: CASE STUDY PORTFOLIO SET-UP pg13 TRADE GALLERY pg15
PORTFOLIO CASE STUDIES: MONEY MANAGEMENT pg25
NAVIGATING 2019
How to navigate what promises to be an even bumpier ride in 2-019
than it was in 2018? There are four competing approaches. One approach is to apply database research based on technical analysis
features to develop a list of potential candidates. This includes stocks compatible with Bollinger band breakouts, RSI divergence etc. We will apply
some of these searches in the coming weeks. The second approach is to ride on the back of research done by others.
This provides an opportunity to trade with, or against, a market crowd. The
wider the publicity around the list, the greater the potential for a sizeable crowd to develop. This provides liquidity and it means you can buy and sell
the quantity you wish without pushing around prices. There is nothing more frustrating that becoming the major player in a low liquidity stock.
These initial search lists are published around the Christmas break, and
then again around midyear. They provide a starting point for further technical analysis. We will be using this list below as a starting point for
analysis and we will show you the methods we use.
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The third approach is to move away from equities and focus on other market types. We favor Foreign Currency trading – FX – because it offers
high liquidity, lower volatility than stocks, and leveraged returns. It has other disadvantages, and we will show how these risks are mitigated.
The fourth approach is the use of CFDs for two reasons. The first reason is the ability to easily short trade. We think this will be a key advantage in 2019 as markets fall. The second advantage is the leverage
available. This asymmetricity makes CFDs suitable for aggressive hedging strategies designed to protect open, long term, investment positions. We
introduced this concept with the case study RMD trade in November/December 2018. We will explore these strategy applications with more examples in 2019.
Here’s a reminder of the factors that influence our 2019 strategy. The surprise announcement by Apple downgrading forecasts is, we suspect, the
first of many such announcements.
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January 18th, 2019 A publication of Guppytraderscomsg Pte Ltd since 1996 CRN200409379K. Copyright © 2015
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You can download the ATR indicator for MT4 at https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/29683 Use this to improve your trade risk management.
CASE STUDY EQUITY CURVE
The case study portfolio return is $27,122 or 27.1% for the period starting
July 1, 2018 and ending June 30, 2019.
For the year starting July 1, 2017-2018, the case study portfolio return is $115,330 or 115.3%. For the year starting July 1, 2016-2017, the case study
portfolio return is $92,464.15 or 92.5%. For the year starting July 1, 2015- 2016, the case study portfolio return is $156,450 or 156.45%.
Equity trade size is generally kept constant at $20,000 in the case study
portfolio so it is easier to compare the case study trades over this and other years. Unless otherwise noted in the trade management notes, all equity case study trades
are managed on an end of day basis, with the exit taken at the best reasonable price on the day after the stop loss is triggered.
Warrant and CFD trades are generally kept constant at $10,000. Warrant and
CFD trades are closed on an intraday basis using a guaranteed stop loss as this is a primary method of managing derivative risk.
FX trades are generally kept constant at $5000. Stops are managed intraday. This capital allocation reflects the risk in each of these asset classes.
ANNUAL CASE STUDY PORTFOLIO REVIEW July 1
2018 – Dec 31 2018 – 27.12% RETURN By Daryl Guppy
In the past six months the market collapsed. Strong trends broke rapidly. Whipsaw volatility was extreme. This delivered less trades than usual, 11 for the 6 month period. Trades were open on average for 28 trading days. The success rate was
63.64% which is worse than the long term average.
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The BOQ CFD trade returned 101.7%. The CVN equity trade returned 46.1%. We did not include any FX trading examples in the case study portfolio. This underlines the importance of using a variety of trading instruments.
The purpose of the newsletter is to model for readers the methods used by professional traders in all market conditions. Our twenty one year average returns of
98.94% for the case study portfolio are testimony to the effectiveness of this approach. Our objective is to teach readers the methods of success so readers can apply these techniques with confidence to help boost their trading returns.
SIX MONTH REVIEW
We start this annual review of the case study notional portfolio with several observations. First is our absolute aversion to losses. We acted very quickly to cut losses where losses were reasonable. High volatility meant prices sometimes crashed
below stops and we used the RMD case study to illustrate hedging strategies. This was a lower than average trading period with 11 trades. This reflects the collapsing
and unstable market. Normally the case study portfolio includes around 13 trades per six month period. The success rate is less than our long term average, with 63.64% of trades turning into winners.
Return for the six month period is 27.12%. This added $27,122 to the case study portfolio. (Note Spreadsheet extract below uses rounded figures) Trades were
open for an average of 28.6 days, or a little over 5 weeks. Most successful trades were around 7 days. This is shorter than in 2017 and reflects an increase in market volatility.
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The second observation is the integrity of the case study portfolio. We are
careful about the integrity of the case study portfolio results. People are often quick
to point out trades that are fast moving and which deliver large profits are often some of the short term trades. They suggest that these are somehow manipulated, or
carefully chosen. They conveniently ignore the * which shows that some of these trades are personal trades. They also fail to mention the trades which were closed for a small profit. And they ignore the sometimes large hits taken when price gaps down
as with the second trade in oil. We close these trades because it is consistent with the trade plans that were being modeled in the case study. Our intention is to show
you the realistic operation of trading – warts and all. The third observation is the frequency of trading. It reflects the volatility
behavior of the market. We used 42 trades open for an average of 23.9 days. In this
six month period the win/loss ratio was 83.33% and the return was 115.33 % on capital for the period.
We still see the common pattern of trading results where two or three trades contribute disproportionately to the overall portfolio results. One of the objectives in
trade and portfolio management is to know how to most effectively manage the trades that turn out to be big fish. Although we always hope that every trade will turn out
to be the big one, the reality is that most of our trades are much smaller fish.
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All of the case study trades for the past six months are included in the Trade Gallery section of the newsletter. These simply give a summary of each trade. Readers should always refer to the individual issues of the newsletter for a more
complete discussion of the management techniques applied to each case study trade. The TRADE OPEN date shown refers to the newsletter issue in which the case study
trade was first opened. It does not refer to the day the case study trade was entered.
PORTFOLIO REVIEW
The notional case study trade portfolio is an integral part of the newsletter because this is used to demonstrate, in contemporary time, the application of
particular strategies. However, we also run a wider mix of articles. They include: Coaching style articles where readers are asked to apply analysis and
then compare their notes with ours.
Discussions of trading strategies and approaches that tackle contemporary issues. This includes parabolic trends, trading bands and
price spike analysis. These articles provide the tools necessary for a better understanding of market activity, although we do not generally include this in the notional case study examples.
New indicators and revision of classic indicators. The objective is to understand how to more effectively apply the tools that appear in your
charting programs. Case study trades that show selection, assessment, management and
exits steps. These form the core of the notational case study portfolio. Other articles showing how indicators and trading strategies are applied
to effectively analyze selected stocks. To ensure these retain their
educational function and do not become investment advice, these discussions are based on recent price charts.
Several features should be noted when examining the case study portfolio.
These returns in the case study trades were not the maximum returns available
from these trades. They generally extracted about half to two thirds of the available price move.
The case study trades also illustrated some effective ways to deal with made markets where traders can use the market makers obligation as an additional tool to manage entries and exits. These techniques are applied in these trades
in a falling market, but they apply equally to all warrant trades. These case study trades included several personal trades. Usually we avoid
using this in case studies because of the potential for conflict of interest. However, in these examples, the personal trade was completed before the newsletter containing the example was published. The techniques were
discussed in advance, but the case study examples were historical by the time traders found them in the newsletter.
The newsletter has also grown and changed over the past 21 years. The
notional case study trade portfolio will remain an integral part of the newsletter
because this is used to demonstrate, in contemporary time, the application of particular strategies. However, we have also included a wider mix of articles. They
include: Case study trade management notes have changed format to show how the
trading plan evolves over time as the trade develops. To make it easier to read,
new notes are highlighted so regular readers can just read the updates if they wish.
Coaching style articles where readers are asked to apply analysis and then compare their notes with ours.
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Discussions of trading strategies and approaches that tackle contemporary issues. This includes trading CFDs, parabolic trends, trading bands, and price spike analysis. These articles provide the tools necessary for a better
understanding of market activity, although we do not generally include this in the notional case study examples.
New indicators, such as Trend Volume Analysis, different applications of standard indicators, such as the articles on Fibonacci and triangles by Sunniel, and revision of classic indicators. The objective is to understand how to more
effectively apply the tools that appear in your charting programs. Case study trades that show selection, assessment, management and exit
steps. These form the core of the notational case study portfolio. Other articles showing how indicators and trading strategies are applied to
effectively analyze selected stocks. To ensure these retain their educational
function and do not become investment advice, these discussions are based on recent price charts.
PAST RESULTS
The average of case study success rate is 83.33%. This is above the 70%
average we aim for. This means that around 8.3 out of 10 trading choices develop into profitable trades.
However, this is not the win/loss ratio that leads to success. The real basis of success lies in the way that unsuccessful trades are handled. We rode losses very
tightly over this period, with all losses being under 1% of total trading capital. The largest loss was $2,143 or 2.1% of total trading capital. This was in a trade in an ordinary stock. This caution and tight risk management is reflected in the low dollar
value of the loss in losing trades.
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Total return for the period was 27.12% on capital. This is a realized profit of $27,122. This means we started out with $100,000 and added $27,122 during the six months. Most equity trades were around $20,000. Derivative trades were around
$10,000. Full detailed results for all previous years are available on http://www.guppytraders.com/gup15.htm.
Are these still exceptional returns? We don’t think so. The twenty one year results show a consistent level of return that is substantially better than the performance of the broad market index. On an thirteen year basis, we can
realistically aim for around a 75% return or more on capital or better from the market. It is achieved by careful and disciplined risk management. It is not achieved
by ‘hot tips’ or by pretending that we can select stocks more successfully than others. The single most important lesson that traders can learn from these portfolio results is that success rests on the trader’s ability to cut losses quickly. Even if the stop loss exit
subsequently turns out to be incorrect this does not destroy good trading results. This report sheet includes all of the case study trades discussed during the last
six months. We do not hide losing trades, or poor performers. We do no conveniently forget to include some trades in the hope that readers will have forgotten about them. These results are achievable. They can be duplicated. You might not achieve the same
level of return, but the case study trades show what is possible. They are also a powerful reason for not accepting poor trading results.
MEASURING RETURNS
We measure our returns by money in the bank. It is an old fashioned measure that gives the trader a realistic idea of just how well he is doing. We avoid false measures of success. There are four false measures.
Counting open profits
Open profits are calculated by taking the last traded price and turning this into a portfolio value. This can make us all instant millionaires – on paper. Readers will know how some sample trades have been very profitable, but have later been closed
at a smaller profit because the exit conditions are not triggered until much later.
Annualized returns This is the industry standard and we believe it is misleading. The sample trade
might return
48% in just one month of trading. An annualised figure takes this realised return – the return that was actually banked – and calculates what it would have been for the
twelve months. This translates into a whopping annualised return of 576%. This is an ‘in your dreams’ return because the trade will not be at the same price in twelve months as it was when we made the exit.
Pretending losses don’t count
We have been disturbed by the trend with some market commentators who pretend that losses do not count. This approach ranges from the comment that in 10 years time, the September 11 drop will show as a minor blip to some writers who
include many stock tips, but only track those that work out. We believe these approaches are misleading. Failed trades have a significant
impact on trading results. We get much better returns if we exclude the three losing trades. We also exclude honesty if we do this.
Accept poor performance because of difficult market conditions Trading is about making the best possible use of your capital. Our capital grows
by completing profitable trades and cutting losses quickly. In the case studies, we demonstrate the difference that this approach makes to trading results. We are not prepared to accept that highly trained and well paid professionals cannot do better
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than the broad market when a consistent application of risk management shows that better results are achievable. Losing 5% when the market falls 7% is not a measure of success. We use a true hedge fund approach, using zero as the absolute
benchmark, and using positive returns from the market as a starting point against which we measure our performance.
Trading is about making our trading capital work hard. If you are able to average a 10% return on each trade, then trading capital begins to build solidly. When you maintain that steady 10% return on $50,000, then $100,000, then $150,000 and
so on, then your trading success is well established. Consistent returns enhanced by money management are the objective of trading.
As a final note, please remember that some of these trading examples are designed to fail because we want to show the adverse consequences of particular trading strategies. There are many trading styles and many trading indicators. Not all
of them work in Australian markets, and not all of them work in all market conditions. It is more instructive to show how they fail to work than it is to show only successful
strategies. Understanding why strategies fail is an important step in building successful strategies.
The information in the newsletter reflects three influences. The first is my own
trading strategies. The newsletter is effectively largely a report on my ongoing analysis and research about the current market. Some issues closely track the exact
steps I have taken in making a trading decision. It is not always something specially written for newsletter readers.
The second is influence from people who read the newsletter. Although I will not comment on individual questions about individual stocks, some of the stocks included are in response to readers’ questions. All of these influences also go into the
case study selection. The third is from writers who have contributed to the newsletter over the last
year. They illustrate many specialized techniques and new approaches. We currently do not include these in the sample trading portfolios.
These case study portfolio results do resemble real world results. The
newsletter is designed to be a useful tool to help you identify trading techniques that work and to use money management approaches that enhance your trading returns.
The case study portfolio is used as a handy running reference for these examples and shows what is possible with good trading discipline and risk management.
The same level of sample portfolio results can be achieved by readers if they
develop the discipline to act consistently on stop loss conditions. This is perhaps the most important single message in the newsletter. Trading is about money
management, not about prediction. Success comes from discipline, not from a set of fancy or expensive indicators. Exceptional success comes from the confident application of the correct trading technique at the appropriate time supported by clear
stop loss conditions designed to protect capital. It is not always easy, but if done properly, it is very profitable.
Each trade is an island. It should stand alone, contributing profits, or small losses to the overall level of trading capital. When traders consider positions in a portfolio context, there is a tendency to sell the best performing stocks to help
compensate for the losses being incurred with the weaker portfolio stocks. It is better trading practice to cut the weakest and continue to ride the profits with the strongest.
Traditionally, Christmas and the end of the financial year are good times for a portfolio reassessment, but any time when you will be away from the markets for more than a few days also demands a portfolio review. A trading review involves closing those
positions which could turn nasty while you are away. A portfolio review means taking a solid look at the poor performing stocks you have fallen in love with. Despite the
personal pain, some do have to be put down.
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NO FLASH IN THE PAN By Daryl Guppy
Thursday January 3 the AUD crashed to 0.67.41 before closing at 0.7004. This was dismissed as a flash crash, driven by algo trading rather than market
fundamentals. It’s true that the crash to 0.676 had some of the characteristics of a flash
crash, but to dismiss this as an aberration is to ignore the charts which provide a
more bearish outlook. These rapid price dips appear in many markets, and often they are a precursor to future lows. In equity markets these are spike lows where informed
traders are getting out before news hits the market. The same principle can be applied in FX markets. To suggest that this was the result of low liquidity in the most liquid market in the world may provide comfort, but it does not provide certainty.
The weekly chart of AUDUSD shows the Aussie trapped in a strong downtrend. The downtrend is well defined with the Guppy Multiple Moving Average indicator. The
long term GMMA is well separated. This suggests that the long-term secular trend is down, and that it is well entrenched. The width and consistency of the separation
shows continued selling. The rally to near 0.74 in December was quickly overwhelmed by selling. The
rally did not create any compression activity in the long GMMA, and this confirms
bearish trend strength. The Aussie retreated to a potential double bottom near 0.70, and if we conveniently ignore the spike lows, the current rally has some of the
characteristics of a double bottom rebound. But in the market, we cannot conveniently ignore aspects of price action that
we do not like. The weekly chart shows a single spike to 0.6745 but the daily chart
shows two spike lows. The GMMA shows a consistent, strong downtrend. The fall to 0.6745 may
include some overshoot but it is a prelude to continued AUD weakness. Traders watch for as retest of the previous 2016 lows near 0.69. This is a good market for shorting
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and the flash crash provides an early indication of the target areas. As the old-time gold miners knew, a flash (of gold) in the pan was a precursor to profitable mining.
NEWSLETTER OUTLOOK: RALLY TREND CHANGE By Daryl Guppy
The very strong rally from the low near 5400 is something that would
normally develop prior to Christmas. It has progressed far enough be classed as a rally breakout. Traders wait for a retreat and retest of the upper edge of
the long term GMMA as a support area. A successful test will point the way to a new rebound and rally continuation with an upside target near 5940 and then 6120. It’s a bullish start to 2019.
The downside targets set in the last issue of the newsletter were
rapidly achieved. The XJO developed a small inverted head and shoulder pattern and the current rally breakout can be seen in this context. This
pattern target projection gives a target near 5980. This is treated as an indicative target because the historical resistance levels provide more
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reliable target areas. However, the inverted head and shoulder pattern support the bullishness of the breakout pattern.
This is the first downtrend breakout behaviour and it is remarkably
strong. The long term GMMA has compressed and turned upwards. This shows investors have stopped selling and are becoming active buyers. The
value of the lower edge of the short term GMMA will soon move above the value of the upper edge of the long term GMMA. This is usually associated with a confirmed trend breakout.
Investors and traders will watch for other individual stocks to replicate this behaviour.
READERS’ QUESTIONS: CASE STUDY PORTFOLIO
SET-UP By Daryl Guppy
At the end of each newsletter, we include a list of notional case study trades
and we provide a summary report every six months. Our returns have been excellent since 1996 and they show what is possible for private traders when trading discipline is consistently applied. The returns are also possible because of our trading size. The
average trade in our samples is $20,000. Institutional traders pay this in brokerage alone on many trades. Our smaller trading size means we can take advantage of
opportunities that larger traders avoid. It is these returns, even in difficult markets, that make trading such a successful way to make your capital work. By keeping each trading example at the same dollar size, it makes it easier to compare the results of
trading strategies and techniques used over previous years. Equity trades are kept at $20,000. Trades are managed on an end of day basis,
with the exit taken at the best reasonable price on the day after the stop loss is triggered.
Warrant and CFD trades are $10,000. Warrant and CFD trades are closed on an
intraday basis using a guaranteed stop loss as this is a primary method of managing derivative risk.
FX trades are $5000. Stops are managed intraday. These notional case studies are monitored in real time and show how various
trading strategies are implemented. The case study tracking money management
section is intended to show how specific trading approaches discussed in previous tutorials have worked out. This section is not a model portfolio, nor is it a collection of
stock tips. It is a developing example of how trading strategies are applied - and modified - how losses are controlled and how profitable exits are made - within the rules of the case study trade. The return on equity is a way of keeping score and does
not represent the best possible returns. For this reason, profits are not added to trading equity. This fails to take advantage of compound returns, but it is consistent
with the tutorial nature of the newsletter. Each case study is selected because it is typical of trading patterns common in
many stocks in the market at that time. The contemporary examples show the trading principles, and it is left to readers to apply these principles to their own stocks that are moving in similar ways.
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The date shown is the date of the newsletter where the full discussion of the
trade construction and entry is included. This makes it easy to find the relevant newsletter issue. It is not the date of the day the case study entry was made.
The sample notional trades are usually based around a single indicator or
technique which sets up the entry conditions, the stop loss conditions and the exit conditions for a profit. Trades are opened and closed according to these rules, and in
most cases other indicators are ignored. This gives readers the opportunity to see how a trade based on, for instance, moving average crossovers or a Trend Volume Analysis approach, work in reality. Readers can see the real difficulties in deciding which entry
signal is really a valid trading signal, as well as the way using some indicators delay the entry or the exit for too long.
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This often means the case study trade would have been more successful in real life because signals from other indicators would have been used. When case study trades are closed, they are discussed so readers can see how the trade could have
been better, or why it was closed under particular circumstances. In real life, traders use a variety of indicators and will adjust a profitable exit according to the feel of the
market. The trades in the portfolio case study section examples show the consequences of following a particular trading rule. It does not show the best trade possible.
Each week different technical analysis tools and trading approaches are discussed. Some of these examples are added to the Money Management Portfolio.
The objective is to assess how successful or unsuccessful, this trading approach is, and to see how risk management tools can be applied to limit losses. They are notional examples of trading strategies. They are not actual trades or are they trading
recommendations. In using these examples, we are trying to model how traders go about their business of both protecting profits and limiting losses.
TRADE GALLERY These are screen shots of every case study trade discussed from July 1, 2018
to December 30, 2018 showing entry and exit points. NOTE. The trade dates on the spreadsheet refer to the date of the newsletter in which these trades
appeared.
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ABC
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CVN
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BEN
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AJX*
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APX*
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RMD CFD
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BOQ CFD
XJO CFD
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IPD*
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RMD CFD short 2
RMD
Long
PORTFOLIO CASE STUDIES: MONEY MANAGEMENT
Starting cash position $100,000 - no brokerage or slippage 2% of risk = $2,000 NOTE Entered date is the newsletter date which contains the case study discussion.
OVERALL PROFIT TO DATE
The case study portfolio return is $27,122 or 27.1% for the period starting
July 1, 2018 and ending June 30, 2019. The case study portfolio return is $156,450 or 156.45% for the period
starting July 1, 2016-2017. Note that this includes 6 to 21 trade results. The case study portfolio return is $92,464.15 or 92.5% for the period starting July 1, 2015- 2016. Equity trade size is generally kept constant at $20,000 in the case study
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portfolio so it is easier to compare the case study trades over this and other years. Unless otherwise noted in the trade management notes, all equity case study trades are managed on an end of day basis, with the exit taken at the best reasonable price
on the day after the stop loss is triggered.
CUSTOMER CAUTION NOTICE AND COPYRIGHT Guppytraderscomsg Pte Ltd (CRN 200409379K) Pte Ltd is not a licensed investment advisor. This publication, which is generally available to the public, falls under the Singapore Media Advice provisions. The information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial product
advice. These analysis notes are based on our experience of applying technical analysis to the market and are designed to be used as a tutorial showing how technical analysis can be applied to a chart example based on recent trading data. This newsletter is a tool to assist you in your personal judgment. It is not designed to replace your Licensed Financial Consultant or your Stockbroker. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs because readers come from diverse backgrounds, with diverse objectives and financial
situations. This information is of a general nature only so you should seek independent advice from your broker or other investment advisors as appropriate before taking any action. The publication should not be construed by any reader as Publisher's (i) solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or (ii) provision of any investment related advice or services tailored to any particular
individual's financial situation or investment objective(s). Readers do not receive investment advisory, investment supervisory or investment management services, nor the initial or ongoing review or monitoring of the reader's individual investment portfolio or individual particular needs. Therefore, no
reader should assume that the Publisher serves as a substitute for individual personalized advice from a licensed financial professional of the reader's choosing. The decision to trade and the method of trading is for the reader alone to decide. The reader maintains absolute discretion as to whether or not to follow any portion of our content. Publisher does not offer or provide any implementation services, nor does it offer or provide initial or ongoing individual personalized advice. It remains the reader's exclusive responsibility to review and evaluate the content and to determine whether to accept or reject any strategy and to correspondingly determine whether any such strategy is appropriate for a reader's
individual situation. Publisher expresses no opinion as to whether any of strategy contained on this publication is appropriate for a reader's individual situation. The author and publisher expressly disclaim all and any liability to any person, whether the purchase of this publication or not, in respect of anything and of the consequences of any thing done or omitted to be done by any such person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of this publication. Neither Guppytraderscomsg Pte Limited nor its officers, employees and agents, will be liable for any loss or
damage incurred by any person directly or indirectly as a result of reliance on the information contained in this publication. The information contained in this newsletter is copyright and for the sole use of trial
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