annual national workshop for dairy economists and policy analysts
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Annual National Workshop for Dairy Economists and Policy Analysts Session II: International Markets and Policy Developments and Status of European Dairy Markets Véronique Pilet , CNIEL, France Boston, May 13 & 14 2013. Recent developments in the world. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Annual National Workshop for Dairy Economists and Policy Analysts
Session II: International Markets and Policy
Developments and Status of European Dairy Markets
Véronique Pilet, CNIEL, FranceBoston, May 13 & 14 2013
Recent developments in the world
World dairy production (all categories included)
Geographic breakdown of world milk production in 2012 (million tonnes)
World total: 760 million tonnes
Europe 21929%
EU-27 159Russia 32Ukraine 11Belarus 7
Asia 282 37%
India 132 China 45Pakistan 33Turkey 17Africa 39
5%Sudan 8Egypt 6Kenya 4
Central America 17 2%
Mexico 11
N. America 9913%
United States 90 Canada 8
S. America 71 9%
Brazil 33Argentina 12Colombia 8
Oceania 29 4%
New Zealand 20Australia 9
FAO Food Outlook November 2012, IDF-DCANZ for NZ
Asia still biggest contributor to milk output increase
Evolution of dairy production (all categories included) 2007 to 2012
World total: + 84 million tonnes
Europe + 6 Mt
Asia + 44 Mt
Africa + 8 Mt
South America + 15 Mt
Oceania + 4 Mt
CNIEL / IDF, FAO Food Outlook Mt: million tonnes
North & Central America + 6 Mt
World average annual growth rate
+ 2.4%
Growth dynamics in main dairy producing countries (1/2)
CNIEL / FAO Food Outlook
05 06 07 08 09 10 11(e) 12(p)70
80
90
100
80.3 82.5 84.2 86.2 85.9 87.5 89.0 90.2
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
Million tonnes
+ 1.7% / year
USA
05 06 07 08 09 10 11(e) 12(p)140
150
160
147 146
152154 153
155158 159
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
�
+ 0.9% / year
EU 25, 27
- 0.6%
Million tonnes
05 06 07 08 09 10 11(e) 12(p)10
14
18
22
14.6 15.2 15.9 15.617.0 17.1
18.920.4
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
+ 4.9% / year
New ZealandMillion tonnes
05 06 07 08 09 10 11(e) 12(p)25
30
35
40
29.731.2
33.2 33.1 34.4 35.5
31.8 32.5
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
+ 3.6% / year
Pakistan
- 4.3% / year
+ 1.3% / year
Million tonnes
CNIEL / FAO Food Outlook
05 06 07 08 09 10 11(e) 12(p)20
25
30
35
24.726.7 27.1 28.1 28.9
30.4 31.5 32.8
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
+ 4.1% / year
BrazilMillion tonnes
05 06 07 08 09 10 11(e) 12(p)80
100
120
140
95 100108 112 116 122 127 132
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
+ 4.8% / year
IndiaMillion tonnes
05 06 07 08 09 10 11(e) 12(p)20
30
40
50
32.337.5 39.9 40.2 40.4 41.2 43.1 45.3
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
China
+ 5.0% / year
+ 11% / year + 1.1% / year+ 4.9% / year
Million tonnes
05 06 07 08 09 10 11(e) 12(p)28
30
32
34
31.1 31.332.2 32.5 32.6
31.9 31.6 32.0
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
+ 0.4% / year
Russia
+ 1.1% / year - 0.6% / year
Million tonnes
Growth dynamics in main dairy producing countries (1/2)
NB : deliveries in Europe and Japan
CNIEL / USDA, ZMB, PZ, Alimentos argentinos, DCANZ, Dairy Australia
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000Million tonnes
2010 2011 2012
Japan
2013
83,000
85,000
87,000
89,000
91,000
93,000Million tonnes
2010 2011 2012
United States
2013133,000
135,000
137,000
139,000
141,000
143,000Million tonnes
2010 2011 2012
EU 27
201315,000
17,000
19,000
21,000Million tonnes
2010 2011 2012
New Zealand
2013
30,000
31,000
32,000
33,000Million tonnes
2010 2011 2012
Rus-sia
2013
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000 Billion litres
2010 2011 2012
Australia
2013
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000Billion litres
2010 2011 2012
Argentina
2013
Growth dynamics in main dairy producing countries – rolling 12 month basis
Geographical variations of dairy product consumption
Apparent dairy product consumption levels in 2012 (kg per capita)
CNIEL / IDF, FAO Food Outlook, PRB
World average: 108
kg/capita Less than 50 kg
50 to 100 kg
100 to 200 kg
More than 200 kg
China 38
India 105
Indonesia 13
Japan 71
Philippines 10
Iran 90Algeria
153Mexico 108
Argentina 237
Brazil 173
USA 276
Canada242
EU287
Russia 245
Australia 309
Geographical variations of dairy product consumption
CNIEL / IDF, FAO Food Outlook, PRB
Apparent per capita consumption (kg – in milk equivalent)
2006 2012 %
World 101 108 +7
Asia 61 71 +16
Africa 42 48 +14
Latin America 129 151 +17
Russia + Ukraine + Belarus 253 255 +1
EU + North America + Australia+ New Zealand
290 284 -2
Income and dairy consumption in the BRIC countries
NB : Human consumption of dairy products, butter excluded, in milk equivalent ; losses and dairy used as animal feed excluded.
CNIEL / FAOSTAT, FMI
0
4000
8000
12000
0
50
100
150
200
GNP per capita (USD) Dairy product consumption per capita (kg)
Russia (USSR before 1992)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
10
20
30
40
GNP per capita (USD) Dairy product consumption per capita (kg)
China
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
80
GNP per capita (USD) Dairy product consumption per capita (kg)
India
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
0
50
100
150
GNP per capita (USD) Dairy product consumption per capita (kg)
Brazil
*Russian imports do not account for volumes originating from Belarus NB: Evolution of imports based on volume
CNIEL / Ubifrance, national customs
Demand is sustained on main markets
Recent import tendencies on substantial markets
United StatesImport January 2013 / 12 months 2012
Cheese : - 1% / + 8%Caseins : + 15% / - 3%
Japan Import 2 months 2013 / 12 months 2012
Cheese : + 1% / + 9%
ChinaImport 2 months 2013 / 12 months
2012 SMP : - 34% / + 29%
WMP : + 50% / + 27% Whey : - 6% / + 10%
RussiaImport* 2 months 2013 / 12 months 2012
Butter : + 60% / - 8%Cheese : + 12% / + 7%
BrazilImport 2 months 2013 / 12 months 2012
WMP: - 37% / + 29%Cheese : - 22% / - 29%
AlgeriaImport 11 months 2012
SMP: - 12%WMP: - 8%
Presence on the world marketRecent export tendencies among major suppliers of the world market
NB: Evolution of exports on a volume basis
CNIEL / USDA, Dairy Australia, Commission, ZMB, Ubifrance, national customs
AustraliaExport January 2013 / 12 months 2012
SMP: + 4% / + 21%WMP: - 54% / - 3%
Cheese : + 5% / stable
United StatesExport January 2013 / 12 months 2012
SMP: - 19% / + 2%Cheese : + 13% / + 16%
ArgentinaExport January 2013 / 12 months 2012
WMP: - 27% / - 1% Cheese : - 10% / - 10%
EU - 27Exports 12 months in 2012
Skim milk powder: +1%Whole milk powder: -1%
Butter: +8%Cheese: +14%
Whey: +7%
New Zealand Export 2 months 2013 / 12 months 2012
SMP: + 17% / + 9%WMP: + 21% / + 15%Butter : - 14% / + 8%
Butter oil : + 26% / + 33%Cheese : + 17% / + 25%
Global dairy product tradeGlobal trade structuration of Dairy Products in 2012*
(in milk equivalent – FAO methodology)
53 million tonnes
7% of global production
* Except intra-EU trade
Main supplying countries (%)
New Zealand 32
European Union 24
United States 10
Australia 6
Argentina 4
Belarus 4
Top 2 : 56 %Top 5 : 76 %
Main markets (%)
China 12
Russia 6
Saudi Arabia 6
Mexico 5
Algeria 5
Indonesia 3
Top 2 : 18 %Top 5 : 34 %CNIEL / FAO
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
WMP
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
World market prices booming
FOB price in Oceania US$ 1,000 / tonne up until April 2013
CNIEL / USDA
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Butter
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
SMP
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Cheddar cheese
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Farmgate milk prices throughout the world…
NB: fat and protein content references differ from one country to another.
CNIEL, Alimentos argentinos, ZMB, USDA, China Dairy
jan fév mar avr mai jun jul aou sep oct nov déc250
300
350
400 € / 1000 litres
2011
USA 2012
2013
jan fev mar avr mai jun jul aout sep oct nov dec220
250
280
310 € / 1000 litres
2011
Argentina
2012
2013
jan fev mar avr mai jun jul aout sep oct nov dec340
370
400
430 € / 1000 litres
2011
Russia
20122013
jan fév mar avr mai jun jul aou sep oct nov déc300
350
400
450 € / 1000 litres
2011
China2012
2013
…Absorbed by high input prices
Eurostat, USDA, CLAL
100
300
500
70009 11 13
USD / tonne
07
Soya mealBrazil FOB
45-46% proteins
0
50
100
15009 11 13
USD / baril
07
Brent crude oilspot FOB
100
150
200
250
30013
€ / tonne
07 09 11
Feed wheatMarket price- European average
100
150
200
250
30013
€ / tonne
07 09 11
Fodder maizeMarket price – European average
Evolution of European butter and SMP stocks up until March 2013
Stocks of dairy products are unavailable
CNIEL / EU Commission
0
100
200
300
400
Public butter stocks
Private storage butter
04 06 1008 12
1 000 tonnes
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Public SMP stocks in the EU
04 06 08
1 000 tonnes
10 12
European Markets
Cow’s milk deliveries
6,0
11,7
30,2
24,5
1,9
3,0
13,6 5,4
4,9
10,9
2,9
0,9
1,40,9
0,7
0,5
0,7
0,5
0,7
1,4
9,8
Cniel / Eurostat, ZMB
More than 15 million tonnes
5 to 15
1 to 5
Less than 1
2,43,3
2,3
0,2 (Cyprus)0,04 (Malta)
0,3
Year 2012Total EU 27 : 140,7 million tonnes
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12100
110
120
130
140
150
EU15
EU 25
Cow’s milk deliveries
Million tonnes
EU 27
Ireland, Germany, Netherlands &France most dynamic countries
-22%
-16%
+1,2%
-11%
-34%
+7,1%
-3,2%
+6,0%
+8,3%
+7,4%
Cniel / Eurostat, ZMB
Strong progress (> 5%)
Moderate progress (0 to 5%)
Moderate decline (0 to -5%)
Strong decline (< -5%)
+6,4 %
Cyprus
- 0,1%
+4,1%
+6,0%
Strong ambition to grow:
Ireland (+ 50% between 2010 and 2020)Germany (+ 10 Mt within 10-15 years) The Netherlands (+ 1 Mt after the end of quotas for FrieslandCampina)Austria (+ 25% after the end of quotas )….
Evolution of milk deliveries between 2007 and 2012
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
10,800,000.0
11,200,000.0
11,600,000.0
12,000,000.0Netherlands
Quota
Deliveries
million tonnes
+0,5%
excess
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
4,900,000.0
5,200,000.0
5,500,000.0
5,800,000.0Ireland
Quota
Million tonnes
+1,1%
excess
Deliveries
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
27,000,000
28,000,000
29,000,000
30,000,000Germany
Quota
Million tonnes
+0,1%
excess
Deliveries
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
22,000,000
23,000,000
24,000,000
25,000,000
26,000,000France
Quota
Million tonnes
-3,6%
Under-use
Deliveries
Cniel / European Commission
Ireland, the Netherlands and Germany are for now limited by quotas. France is reacting (or used to react) differently.
Quota utilisation
Under-use and excess of milk quotas in Europe
Excess
Limited under-use (< 3%)
Significant under-use (3 à 6%)
Considerable under-use (> 6%)
Situation by member state in 2011/12
Malta
Cyprus
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
110,000,000
120,000,000
130,000,000
140,000,000
150,000,000UE
Quota
Deliveries
Million tonnes
-4,7%
Overall under-use
EU 15 23 25 27
Amplified volatility on global markets finds itsway to European internal markets
déc-01déc-02déc-03déc-04déc-05déc-06déc-07déc-08déc-09déc-10déc-11déc-12déc-13
1000
2000
3000
4000
1 000 € / tonne
European SMP prices
01 13
déc-01déc-02déc-03déc-04déc-05déc-06déc-07déc-08déc-09déc-10déc-11déc-12déc-13
1000
2000
3000
40001 000 € / tonne
World butter prices
01 13
déc-01déc-02déc-03déc-04déc-05déc-06déc-07déc-08déc-09déc-10déc-11déc-12déc-13
1000
2000
3000
40001 000 € / tonne
World SMP prices
01 13
déc-01déc-02déc-03déc-04déc-05déc-06déc-07déc-08déc-09déc-10déc-11déc-12déc-13
2000
3000
4000
50001 000 € / tonne
European butter prices
01 13
200
300
400
01
€ / 1 000 litres
13
Farmgate milk price
In Germany
NB : European quotations measured in France
CNIEL / FranceAgriMer, ZMB
Implementation of the Milk Package Milk Package Reg. 1234/2007 (Single CMO) as amended by European
Parliament Reg. 261/2012 with a specific part on « milk and dairy products ». Adopted 14th March 2012 – application 2nd April 2012 until 2020
Main aspects: Contractual relations between a milk producer and his client can be specified
in writing Negotiating power : possibility to create Producers Organisations (or PO
Associations) with or without transfer of ownership – no change for existing cooperatives which keep their status
Max. size : 3,5% of EU milk i.e. 5 billion litres POs must be declared to the Member State
Transparency : processors must declare to the Member State the collected volumes each month
Inter-branch organisations (IBO) can be recognised by Member States PDO/PGI cheese supply regulation allowed
A greener CAP 30% of subsidies linked with environmental measures
A fairer subsidy distribution Single payment per hectare per member state Moderate rebalancing of national envelopes Capping of payments per farm Targeting of support to active farmers only More funds for young farmers and small producers
More competitiveness to guarantee food security Emergency measures in case of a crisis: intervention, mutual funds Rural development support jointly funded by the Community and Member
States Simpler procedures
CAP reshaping process 2013-2020
Evolution of CAP expenditure (1980 – 2020)
Notes:- 2011 = Budget; 2012 = Budget prévisionnel; - 2013 = Sous plafonds FEAGA pour paiements direct et dépenses de soutien des marchés + engagements pilier 2. Les montants développement rural 2013 inclus la modulation volontaire UK et Article 136 “montants non dépensés”. Comme ceux-ci s’arrêtent fin 2013, les montants correspondant sont intégrés dans les aides directes à partir de 2014.
DG AGRI
Dairy Europe and its multiple faces
A region present on the global market showing a potential for growth…
…but facing a number of uncertainties: A new volatility, The end of the quotas, Reform of dairy policies with different impacts
according to the zones
CONCLUSION