annual simulations of models-3/cmaq: issues and lessons learned pat dolwick, carey jang, norm...
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Annual Simulations of Models-3/CMAQ: Annual Simulations of Models-3/CMAQ:
Issues and Lessons LearnedIssues and Lessons Learned
Pat Dolwick, Carey Jang, Norm Possiel,
Brian Timin, Joe Tikvart
Air Quality Modeling Group
USEPA/OAQPS/EMAD
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
M3 User Workshop, 10/21/2002
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OUTLINEOUTLINE
Applications and evaluations of
Models-3/CMAQ at USEPA/OAQPS
Issues related to annual modeling of
ozone and PM
Preliminary comparison results between
CMAQ-2002 and -2001 releases
On-going and upcoming activities
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Models-3/CMAQ Applications Models-3/CMAQ Applications and Evaluations at EPA/OAQPSand Evaluations at EPA/OAQPS
Western U.S. ApplicationWestern U.S. Application• Episodic O3, July 96, 36/12 km, evaluation, (AWMA 2001)
Annual Continental U.S. ApplicationAnnual Continental U.S. Application • 1-atmosphere, annual 1996, 36-km, evaluation &
diagnostics, on-going for 2001, (AWMA 2001 & 2002) Eastern U.S. ApplicationEastern U.S. Application
• 1-atmosphere, July 95, urban applications, 36/12/4-km, emissions control & growth (on-going)
Intercontinental Transport modelingIntercontinental Transport modeling• Trans-Oceanic transport of air pollutants and nested U.S. &
Asia/China modeling for year 2001
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12 km western US ozone domain
36 km western US ozone domain
36 km eastern US domain
Models-3/CMAQ Modeling: Domain Maps
36 km Annual National US domain
12 km domain
4 km domain
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Annual Continental U.S. ApplicationAnnual Continental U.S. Application
Features :Features :• Annual CMAQ modeling Annual CMAQ modeling over the continental U.S.,over the continental U.S., ““One-Atmosphere”One-Atmosphere”
Model Setup :Model Setup :• Annual PMAnnual PM and O and O3 3 (1996)(1996)• 36-km, 8/12 vertical layers36-km, 8/12 vertical layers• Meteorology : MM5Meteorology : MM5• Emissions Processing: SMOKEEmissions Processing: SMOKE• Model Evaluation: Compared against observed data Model Evaluation: Compared against observed data
(IMPROVE & CASTNET) & REMSAD(IMPROVE & CASTNET) & REMSAD• Papers published in AWMA (2001 & 2002)Papers published in AWMA (2001 & 2002)
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July 1, 1996
NOx Emissions SO2 Emissions
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Run Time & Disk Space Requirementfor Annual CMAQ Simulation
CMAQ annual run time was ~14 daysCMAQ annual run time was ~14 days• 4 CPUs (400 MHz) Sun Workstations (Enterprise 450); 4 CPUs (400 MHz) Sun Workstations (Enterprise 450);
Running 4 quarters of the year concurrentlyRunning 4 quarters of the year concurrently• ~4 hours/model day (8 layers)~4 hours/model day (8 layers)
Model-Ready Inputs/Outputs (entire year)Model-Ready Inputs/Outputs (entire year)• Emission (SMOKE/ECIP) : 40 GBEmission (SMOKE/ECIP) : 40 GB• Meteorology (MM5/MCIP) : 100 GBMeteorology (MM5/MCIP) : 100 GB• Outputs (M3/CMAQ) : 250 GB, compressed to 9 GBOutputs (M3/CMAQ) : 250 GB, compressed to 9 GB
The model runs >4 times faster on new Linux PCsThe model runs >4 times faster on new Linux PCs• 1.6GHz AMD Athlon MP (single CPU)1.6GHz AMD Athlon MP (single CPU)
Current modeling are transitioned to Linux PCsCurrent modeling are transitioned to Linux PCs (parallel processing on the PC/Linux cluster is (parallel processing on the PC/Linux cluster is being investigated)being investigated)
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144144127127
194194
132132
126126119119
134134
1391397676
5656
107107
113113
149149 6262
137137
215215 131131
9999
Annual Continental U.S. CMAQ Modeling: O3
(July Max in ppb, 1996)
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2626
1919
2626
2424
2424
2222
1616
22222424
2626
1414
1414
1010
1515
1818
991616
99
2323
1111
1212
Annual CMAQ Modeling: Visibility (January Average in Deciview)
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Annual CMAQ Modeling: Wet Deposition
Sulfur Wet Deposition Nitrogen Wet Deposition
(January average)
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Models-3/CMAQ Simulation: Annual Average
PM 2.5 Sulfate PM
Organic PMNitrate PM
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Observation (IMPROVE)
Mo
del
Annual Average: Total PM 2.5 mass
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Observation
Mo
del
NO3
SO4
OC
Annual Average: PM 2.5 Species (SO4, NO3, OC)
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Models-3/CMAQ : Monthly Average (July)
PM 2.5 Sulfate PM
Organic PMNitrate PM
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Observation
Mo
del
NO3
SO4
OC
Summer Average: PM 2.5 Species (SO4, NO3, OC)
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Models-3/CMAQ : Monthly Average (January)
PM 2.5 Sulfate PM
Organic PMNitrate PM
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Winter Average: PM 2.5 Species (SO4, NO3, OC)
Observation
Mo
del
NO3
SO4
OC
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Annual CMAQ Modeling:
CB4 vs. RADM2
Nitrate PM (January avg, 1996)
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Annual CMAQ Modeling:
CB4 vs. RADM2
Sulfate PM (July avg, 1996)
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NH3 Sensitivity Modeling
BaseBase 50% NH 50% NH33 reduction reduction
1.161.16
0.620.62
1.241.24
0.530.53
0.700.70
0.080.081.691.690.090.09
Nitrate PMNitrate PM : : (January Avg, 1996)(January Avg, 1996)
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On-going and Upcoming Modeling On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMGActivities at OAQPS/AQMG
Continue model evaluation and sensitivity test for Continue model evaluation and sensitivity test for the annual 1996 continental US runthe annual 1996 continental US run
• Examine nitrate and organic PM issues
–Emissions issues (NH3, BEIS3, Fire, CA emis. etc.)
–Vertical layer sensitivity (8-14 layers)
–Nitrate nighttime chemistry issue– “N2O5 + H2O --> 2HNO3” and “NO2 + OH --> HNO3”
–Dry deposition Issue
–Vertical diffusion sensitivity
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Modeling support for regulatory analysisModeling support for regulatory analysis Clear Skies Initiative (on-going) PM Transport Rule (2002/03) Nonroad Rule (2002/03) Section 812 CAAA Prospective Update (2003) 8-Hour Ozone Implementation Guidance
(2002/03) PM NAAQS Review (2003) Regional Haze Rule (on-going)
On-going and Upcoming Modeling On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG Activities at OAQPS/AQMG (contd.)(contd.)
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Improvement of base model simulationImprovement of base model simulation• Increase vertical resolution (from 8 to 12 layers)• Monthly NH3 emissions adjustments from animal
husbandry & fertilizer operations (based on ORD inverse modeling)
• BEIS-3/BELD-3• NOx emissions from new Nonroad model• California NOx & VOC emission adjustments• Updated plume rise algorithm in SMOKE• Upgrade to latest Models-3/CMAQ release (July
2002)
On-going and Upcoming Modeling On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG Activities at OAQPS/AQMG (contd.)(contd.)
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National 1996 CMAQ Modeling:
Peak Ozone (July 1996)
8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQ
Old Base vs. New Base
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Sulfate PM (Monthly average, July 1996)
8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQ
Annual CMAQ Modeling:
Old Base vs. New Base
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Nitrate PM (Monthly average, January 1996)
8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQ
Annual CMAQ Modeling:
Old Base vs. New Base
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AnthropogenicSOA
BiogenicSOA
(BEIS2 vs. BEIS3)
8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQOrganic PM (July 1996)
Annual CMAQ Modeling:
Old Base vs. New Base
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CMAQ Seasonal Ozone (8-hr max) Evaluation
Spring
Fall
Summer
WinterObservation
Mo
del
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CMAQ Seasonal Sulfate PM Evaluation
Spring
Fall
Summer
WinterObservation
Mo
del
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CMAQ Seasonal Organic PM Evaluation
Spring
Fall
Summer
WinterObservation
Mo
del
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CMAQ Seasonal Nitrate PM Evaluation
Spring
Fall
Summer
WinterObservation
Mo
del
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CMAQ Seasonal
Total NO3 (HNO3 + Nitrate PM)
Evaluation
Spring
Fall
Summer
WinterObservation
Mo
del
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IMPROVE PM Species National East WestPM2.5 8% 3% 16%Sulfate Ion -2% 5% -19%Nitrate Ion 200% 262% 150%Elemental Carbon 14% -2% 28%Organic Aerosols 1% -30% 26%Soil/Other 80% 204% 43%
CMAQ vs. IMPROVEModel performance : Annual average
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CB-IV SAPRC-99CB-IV SAPRC-99
((JanuaryJanuary Average) Average)
Nitrate Nighttime Chemistry Sensitivity“N2O5 HNO3” rxn rate (sensitivity test)
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Base KvBase Kv(min) (min) = 5= 5 Kv(min) = 1, StableKv(min) = 1, Stable up to 3up to 3rdrd layer, ~230 m layer, ~230 m
((JanuaryJanuary Average) Average)
Kv (vertical diffusion) Sensitivity
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((JanuaryJanuary 19, 2002) 19, 2002)
NH3 Dry Deposition Issue in CMAQ
NHNH33 Dry Dep. (V Dry Dep. (Vdd) Air Temp.) Air Temp.
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Improvement of base model simulationImprovement of base model simulation• Increase vertical resolution (from 8 to 12 layers)• Monthly NH3 emissions adjustments from animal husbandry &
fertilizer operations (based on ORD inverse modeling)• BEIS-3/BELD-3• NOx emissions from new Nonroad model• California NOx & VOC emission adjustments• Updated plume rise algorithm in SMOKE
• Upgrade to latest Models-3/CMAQ release (July 2002)–Computer time issue (runtime doubled)–Nitrate PM overprediction issue–Organic PM/Biogenic SOA issue
On-going and Upcoming Modeling On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG Activities at OAQPS/AQMG (contd.)(contd.)
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((JanuaryJanuary avg.) avg.)
Difference (CMAQ/2002 – CMAQ/2001)
PM 2.5 PM 2.5
Nitrate Nitrate PMPM
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((JanuaryJanuary avg.) avg.)
Nitrate PM
CMAQ-2001 (AE2)CMAQ-2001 (AE2) CMAQ-2002 (AE3) CMAQ-2002 (AE3)
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((JulyJuly avg.) avg.)
Difference (CMAQ/2002 – CMAQ/2001)
PM 2.5 PM 2.5
Biogenic Biogenic SOASOA
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CMAQ-2002(AE3)
CMAQ-2001(AE2)
Anthropogenic SOA Biogenic SOA
(July avg.)(July avg.)
2 ug/m3 6 ug/m3
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Annual National CMAQ run for Annual National CMAQ run for year 2001year 2001• 2001 MM5 & NEI emissions thru SMOKE
• Model evaluation against expanded PM speciation network (TREND, IMPROVE, etc.)
““Intercontinental Transport of Climatic Intercontinental Transport of Climatic Effect of Air Pollutants” (Effect of Air Pollutants” (ICAPICAP) Project) Project• Modeling of trans-oceanic pollutant transport
• Nested modeling over East Asia/China Region
Upcoming Modeling Activities at Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG OAQPS/AQMG
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“Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants
(ICAP)” : USEPA Modeling Initiative
NASA/MOPPIT: CO Transport
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Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants
(ICAP)
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Air Quality Modeling over China : Ozone
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PM 2.5 Sulfate PM
Organic PMNitrate PM
Air Quality Modeling over China : PM
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Visibility (Deciview) Sulfate Wet Deposition
Air Quality Modeling over China
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PM 2.5 modeling more complex than O3 modeling• Multi-species vs. single species
• SO2, NOx, VOC, or NH3-limited vs. VOC or NOx-limted
• Annual vs. summer pollutants
• Day + nighttime chemistry vs. daytime chemistry
• “Gas + aqueous + aerosol” chemistry vs. gas chemistry
• Organic PM modeling is still a research issue
• Emission (e.g. NH3, fire, Biogenic) & monitoring issues (e.g., OC/EC, nitrate) and provide further modeling challenge
O3 and PM are highly linked, “one-atmosphere” modeling is necessary
Take Home MessageTake Home Message
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Nitrate PM Nitrate PM Sulfate PM Sulfate PM ---- (decrease) -- (decrease)(decrease) -- (decrease)
((JulyJuly Average, 1996) Average, 1996)
50% NOx reduction
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Formation of Secondary PM (PM2.5):
Sulfate PM formation: H2SO4 + 2 NH3 ---> (NH4)2SO4 (s)
Gas Phase: O2,H2O
SO2 + OH ---> H2SO4
Aqueous Phase: H2O
S(IV) + H2O2 ---> H2SO4 (Dominate over low pH)
S(IV) + O3 ---> H2SO4
Nitrate PM formation: HNO3 + NH3 <---> NH4NO3
(aq,s)
Gas Phase : (daytime)
NO2 + OH ---> HNO3
Gas &Aq Phase : (nighttime)
N2O5 + H2O ---> HNO3
Organic PM formation:
(Gas-Particle conversion)
VOC + OH ---> SOA O3, NO3 (semi-volatile)
(Long-chain VOC, Aromatics, Biogenic VOC)
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Ozone Ozone Sulfate PM Sulfate PM ---- (decrease) -- (decrease)(decrease) -- (decrease)
((JulyJuly Average, 1996) Average, 1996)
50% NOx reduction
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Ozone Ozone Organic PM Organic PM ---- (decrease) -- (decrease)(decrease) -- (decrease)
((JulyJuly Average, 1996) Average, 1996)
50% NOx reduction
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Nitrate PM Nitrate PM Sulfate PM Sulfate PM -- (decrease) + (increase)-- (decrease) + (increase)
((JanuaryJanuary Average) Average)
50% NOx reduction
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Ozone Ozone Sulfate PM Sulfate PM + (increase) + (increase)+ (increase) + (increase)
((JanuaryJanuary Average) Average)
50% NOx reduction
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Air ToxicsAir Toxics
OzoneOzone
Acid RainAcid Rain
VisibilityVisibility
PMPM2.52.5
Water Water QualityQuality
..OHOH
..OHOH Role in Linking Pollutants Formation : Role in Linking Pollutants Formation : One-AtmosphereOne-Atmosphere
NOx + VOC + OH + hv ---> O3
SOx [or NOx] + NH3 + OH ---> (NH4)2SO4 [or NH4NO3]
SO2 + OH ---> H2SO4
NO2 + OH ---> HNO3
VOC + OH --->Orgainic PM
OH <---> Air Toxics(POM, PAH, Hg(II), etc.)
Fine PM(Nitrate, Sulfate, Organic PM)
NOx + SOx + OH (Lake Acidification,
Eutrophication)
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