anthropogenic climate change for
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
1/61
Anthropogenic climate change for
1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3
model under updated emissions scenarios
T.C. Johns, J.M. Gregory, W.J. Ingram,C.E. Johnson, A. Jones, J.A. Lowe,J.F.B. Mitchell, D.L. Roberts, D.M.H. Sexton,D.S. Stevenson, S.F.B. Tett, and M.J. Woodage
Hadley Centre technical notes 22
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
2/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
3/61
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
4/61
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
5/61
-
-
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
6/61
-
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
7/61
-
- -
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
8/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
9/61
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
10/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
11/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
12/61
-
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
13/61
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
14/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
15/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
16/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
17/61
-
-
-
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
18/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
19/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
20/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
21/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
22/61
-
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
23/61
-
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
24/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
25/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
26/61
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
27/61
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
28/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
29/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
30/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
31/61
-
-
-
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
32/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
33/61
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
34/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
35/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
36/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
37/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
38/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
39/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
40/61
-
-
-
- -
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
41/61
-
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
42/61
-
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
43/61
-
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
44/61
-
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
45/61
-
-
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
46/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
47/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
48/61
Annual global surface air temperature: Control
200 400 600 800 1000Year
286.2
286.4
286.6
286.8
287.0
287.2
Tempe
rature(K)
1025 10251015
1005
1015
1015
1005995985 985
1005
1015
995
1015
1015
1015
1005
(a) HadCM3: DJF
180 90oW 0 90oE 18090
o
S
45oS
0
45oN
90oN
1010
1010
1020
10101000985
1020
1020
1000
1020
985
(b) HadCM3: JJA
180 90oW 0 90oE 18090
o
S
45oS
0
45oN
90oN
1015 1015
1015
1005
10151015100
5
1015
1005995
995
985
1015
1015
985985
1005
1025
(c) Analysis: DJF
180 90oW 0 90oE 18090oS
45oS
0
45oN
90oN 1010
1010
10101000
985
1020 1020
1020
1010
1000
1020
985
1020
10101020
(d) Analysis: JJA
180 90oW 0 90oE 18090oS
45oS
0
45oN
90oN
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
49/61
(a) DJF: Globe
90oS60oS30oS030oN60oN90oN 0Latitude
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Precipitation
(mm/day)
HadCM3CMAP
(b) JJA: Globe
90oS60oS30oS030oN60oN90oN 0Latitude
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Precipitation
(mm/day)
HadCM3CMAP
(c) DJF: Land
90oS60oS30oS030oN60oN90oN 0Latitude
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Precipitation(mm/day)
HadCM3CMAP
(d) JJA: Land
90oS60oS30oS030oN60oN90oN 0Latitude
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Precipitation(mm/day)
HadCM3CMAP
(e) DJF: Sea
90oS60oS30oS030oN60oN90oN 0Latitude
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Precipitation(mm/day)
HadCM3CMAP
(f) JJA: Sea
90oS60oS30oS030oN60oN90oN 0Latitude
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Precipitation(mm/day)
HadCM3CMAP
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
50/61
1
1
2
21
5
2
512
1
2
2510
5
2
15
10521
21
10
1
12
1
25
52
110
1
1
1
10
5
5
1
(a) HadCM3: DJF
180 90oW 0 90oE 18090oS
45oS
0
45oN
90oN
111
2
2
2
151
1
1
2
2
22
25
2 21
2
151012510
11
5
5
5
5
101021
5
2
1
5
(b) HadCM3: JJA
180 90oW 0 90oE 18090oS
45oS
0
45oN
90oN
1
122
2
5
512
5
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1 1 1 222
10
5
1
2
10
5
10
1
122
5
1
5
5
2
1
1
5
(c) CMAP: DJF
180 90oW 0 90oE 18090oS
45oS
0
45oN
90oN
1
1 12
105
11
1 22
2
2 2
2
2
5 1 1
1
10 5
1
1
10
2
5
1
21
5 11
10
11
2
1
5
(d) CMAP: JJA
180 90oW 0 90oE 18090oS
45oS
0
45oN
90oN
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
51/61
(a) Sulphate burden
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Burden(mg[S]m2)
A2
B2
A1FI
(b) Sulphate forcing
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Forcing(Wm2)
DirectIndirect
B2
A2
A1FI
B2
A2A1FI
(c) Burden to emissions ratio
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.012
Ratio:(mg[S]m2/Tg[S]yr1) A2
B2
(d) Forcing normalized by sulphur burden
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year
8
6
4
2
0
Forcing(Wm2 /mg[S]m2)
DirectIndirect
A2
B2
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
52/61
Radiative forcing
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year
2
0
2
4
6
8
W/m
2
G92GB2A2B2A1FI
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
53/61
(a) Global Mean Temperatures
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year
2
0
2
4
6
1.5mTemperature(K)
G92GB2B2A2A1FI
CTLObserved (UEAMOHSST6)
(b) Land and Sea Temperatures
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1.5mTemperature(K)
G92GB2B2A2A1FI
LandSea
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
54/61
Sea level rise due to thermal expansion
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
Sealevel(m)
G92
GB2B2A2A1FI
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
55/61
NHemi sea ice area
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year
4
6
8
10
12
14
Area(106 km
2)
G92GB2B2A2A1FI
NHemi sea ice volume
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year
5
10
15
20
25
30
Volume(103 km
3)
G92GB2B2A2A1FI
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
56/61
(a)
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
TotalPrecipitation(m
m/day)
G92GB2B2
A2A1FI
LAND
(b)
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
TotalPrecip
itation(mm/day) G92
GB2B2A2A1FI
SEA
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
57/61
(a) A2CTL (2080s): Temperature (K)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S
45S
0
45N
90N
0 2 4 6 8
(b) A1FICTL (2080s): Temperature (K)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S
45S
0
45N
90N
0 2 4 6 8
(c) B2CTL (2080s): Temperature (K)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S
45S
0
45N
90N
0 2 4 6 8
(d) B2GB2 (2080s): Temperature (K)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S
45S
0
45N
90N
1 0 1 2 3
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
58/61
(a) A2CTL (DJF 2080s): Precip (mm/day)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S
45S
0
45N
90N
2 0 2
(b) A1FICTL (DJF 2080s): Precip (mm/day)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S
45S
0
45N
90N
2 0 2
(c) B2CTL (DJF 2080s): Precip (mm/day)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S
45S
0
45N
90N
2 0 2
(d) B2GB2 (DJF 2080s): Precip (mm/day)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S
45S
0
45N
90N
2 0 2
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
59/61
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
60/61
(a) A2CTL (DJF 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E90S
45S
0
45N
90N
30 0 30
(b) A1FICTL (DJF 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E90S
45S
0
45N
90N
30 0 30
(c) B2CTL (DJF 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E90S
45S
0
45N
90N
30 0 30
(d) B2GB2 (DJF 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E90S
45S
0
45N
90N
30 0 30
-
7/28/2019 Anthropogenic Climate Change For
61/61
(a) A2CTL (JJA 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E
90S
45S
0
45N
90N
30 0 30
(b) A1FICTL (JJA 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E
90S
45S
0
45N
90N
30 0 30
(c) B2CTL (JJA 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E90S
45S
0
45N
90N
30 0 30
(d) B2GB2 (JJA 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)
180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E90S
45S
0
45N
90N
30 0 30