anticipating the future - vli hawaiianticipating the future: developing strategic foresight. richard...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
2020
ANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC
FORESIGHTRichard Lum, CEO
Vision Foresight Strategy
Learning Objectives:1. Review a broad array of trends and emerging issues shaping the
futures of credit unions.2. Consider alternative scenarios of the future for credit unions.3. Shift to thinking in terms of multiple possible futures, and how those
emerge.
![Page 2: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Anticipating the FutureDEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
RICHARD LUM, PHD29 JANUARY 2020
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
![Page 3: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Vision Foresight Strategy LLC
“Reframing the future.”
www.visionforesightstrategy.com
Honolulu, HI
Vision Foresight Strategy LLC (VFS) is a foresight and strategic analysis firm headquartered in Honolulu, HI.
We are a global network of trained foresight professionals that works with organizational leaders to navigate the uncertainty and complexity they face in the world today.
![Page 4: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The world is undergoing a transition
![Page 5: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Futures and ForesightNO, THEY DIDN’T GIVE ME A CRYSTAL BALL…
![Page 6: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Understand and anticipate change in society…
…and then help others reframe their expectations and preferences for the future.
![Page 7: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Futures Studies: Two Complementary Aspects
Analytic: understanding and
anticipating change
Synthetic: reframing
expectations and preferences
![Page 8: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Foresight:Insight into how and why the future could be different from the present.
![Page 9: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Forecasting, Not Prediction
![Page 10: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
A World in TransitionA BROAD RANGE OF ASSUMPTIONS IS BEING UNDERMINED
![Page 12: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
The Global Context
![Page 13: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
The Built Environment
![Page 14: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The Machine World
![Page 15: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Social Worthiness as the New FICO
![Page 16: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Privatized and Community-Based Governance
![Page 17: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Machine Charities
![Page 18: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Crossing the ChasmNEW TOOLS AND FRAMEWORKS
![Page 19: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Seeing a Transition
![Page 20: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Things You are Already Seeing
Rising crowd funding
Expanding cyber threatsAging population
Gamification of finance
Automation of Insurance
Social credits and social shaping
Cashless society
Smart contractsDigital outcasts
Blockchain and banking transparency
World without money
Financial RegulationsTax StructuresBanksLegacy InstitutionsPhysical branchesCustomer ExpectationsTraditional financial products
![Page 21: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Generic Forces against ChangePowerful stakeholders and incumbents
Physical and logistical constraints
Rules, customs, and traditions
Patterns of behavior
In the Credit Union IndustryRegulation
High barriers to entry
Legacy infrastructure and strategy
Unions
Cultural resistance
Entrenched preferences
The Future: Change and Continuity
![Page 22: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Cashless Country
The wonderfully cashless, same ‘ole economy
Fintech, Increased digitization, Increased Automation
Regulation, cyber security, culture lag
![Page 23: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Tech Economy
New products and services, strikingly similar industry
Fintech, changing values of millennials, increasing environmental concerns, increasing automation
Legacy industry
![Page 24: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Dynamic Environmentalism
Climate crisis drives innovation and economic growth
Fintech, climate change becoming increasingly costly, changing US values, crowdfunding
![Page 25: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Post-Trust
Disasters worsen trust in financial systems, pushing society to adapt and abandon
Rising cost of climate change, Coops at the End of Capitalism, deep fakes, changing values, cryptogovernance
![Page 26: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
![Page 27: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Informing and InspiringDEVELOPING FORESIGHT TO ANTICIPATE AND TO SHAPE
![Page 28: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Seeing Change
![Page 29: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Reframing for Strategic Thinking
![Page 30: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Seeing Change in Layers
![Page 31: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Nothing evolves in a vacuum: how do things interact, amplify, and dampen each other?
Exploring multiple pathways of change: scenarios to map the landscape
Exploring Change
![Page 32: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Shaping Change
Seeing connections and possibilities that are only obvious after the fact
![Page 33: Anticipating the Future - VLI HawaiiANTICIPATING THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. Richard Lum, CEO. Vision Foresight Strategy. Learning Objectives: 1. Review a broad array](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022013002/5eca6d4c3e28fa06687aab3d/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Mahalo