antipoverty transfers and the post-2015 development agenda

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Antipoverty transfers and the post-2015 development

agenda

Armando Barrientos, Brooks World Poverty Institute, the University of Manchester, UK

[email protected]

Post-Graduate Conference 2014, School of Social and International Studies, University of Bradford,

October 31st 2014

mailto:[email protected]

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http://www.post2015hlp.org/the-report/

Is a zero extreme poverty rate target for 2030 achievable? What is the potential

contribution of antipoverty transfers?

http://www.post2015hlp.org/the-report/

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1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Global P0 Exc. China 40.5 39.1 38.1 37.2 36.6 34.3 33.6 31.5 27.8 25.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

Po

vert

y h

ead

cou

nt

rate

(%

)Global Poverty at US$1.25 (%)

WB data

-0.4 pps per year

- 1.0 pps per year

ambitious

pessimistic

optimistic

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Reasons to be cautious….

Stronger performance will be

required precisely in those regions

which have underperformed so far

Reaching zero targets will require unprecedented growth with redistribution

Table 2. Global poverty headcount projections for selected regions (millions)

Ravallion (2012) Optimistic Scenario

Hillebrand (2012) Market First Scenario

2015 2015 2050 Sub-Saharan Africa 397 395 205 South Asia 418 249 14 East Asia and Pacific 159 126 15 Latin America and the Caribbean

33 35 7.8

Data Source: (Hillebrand, 2011, Ravallion, 2012)

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The presentation:

The growth of antipoverty transfers in developing countries

Reach and diversity

Current practice

Programme focus: design, implementation, and impact

Sustainability

Institutionalisation

Financing and Politics

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Growth of large scale programmes providing income transfers to households

in poverty in the South

Social assistance: tax-financed programmes addressing poverty

Globally ~ 0.75 to 1 billion people reached

by transfers

Diversity in design

In middle income countries transfers

programmes reach a significant fraction of

the population

In low income countries progress has been slower

0.5

0.25

0.25

0.1

South Africa

Brazil

Mexico

Ethiopia

Fraction of households reached by social assistance

Fraction of households reached by social assistance

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What explains the growth in antipoverty transfers?

Crises and adjustment in the 1980s and 1990s led to structural deficits in

wellbeing and protection in developing countries

Democratisation and an expanding fiscal space have created favourable

conditions in which governments can address these structural deficits

Poverty research has developed knowledge and tools for innovative and

effective antipoverty transfer programmes

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Programme focus: Diversity in design and objectives

pure income transfers Social pensions, child grant, family allowances [South Africa’s Child

Support Grant and Older Person Grant]

income transfers and asset accumulation Human development [Mexico’s Oportunidades, Brazil’ Bolsa Família]

Infrastructure and asset protection [India’s National Rural Employment

Guarantee, Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme]

integrated poverty eradication programmes [Chile’s Chile Solidario, BRAC’s CFPR-Targeting the Ultra Poor]

Resource: Social Assistance in Developing Countries Database version 5 – available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1672090

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1672090

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

cum

ula

tive

pro

gram

me

sta

rts

Cumulative series of flagship transfer programme starts by type

In Kind HD-CCT Employment Categorical-pension Categorical-Other

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The contribution of poverty research

Programme design and implementation informed by developments in poverty

research:

Depth and severity of poverty, not just headcount

...ranking of the poor (extreme - moderate poverty)

Poverty is multidimensional,

...duration matters (intergenerational persistence)

Focus on households (agency and productive capacity)

Information and incentives (conditions and co-responsibility)

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Implementation capacity varies across low and middle income countries

Village committee in Kalomo District in Zambia responsible for the implementation of the Social Transfer Pilot Programme

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Pension day in Lesotho

Katherine Vincent/2007

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Ensuring services provision for low income households in Uruguay

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Short run effect on poverty

17.36

36.13

45.63

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Poverty headcount Poverty gap Poverty gap squared

Difference in difference estimates of the poverty reduction effectiveness of Progresa/Oportunidades in Mexico two years after its introduction

Poverty reduction (%) 1997-1999

Data source: Skoufias, E. 2005. Progresa and Its Impacts on the Welfare of Rural Households in Mexico, Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute

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Child labour outcomes from selected child-focused programmes

Bono desarrollo Humano (Ecuador)

CSG (S. Africa)

RPS (Nicaragua)

PRAF (Honduras)

Familias Accion (Colombia)

Oportunidades (Mexico)

PATH (Jamaica)

SCT (Malawi)

Tekopora (Paraguay)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Re

du

ctio

n in

ch

ild la

bo

ur

(pe

rce

nta

ge p

oin

ts)

Value of transfers as percentage of total household income

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Transition from ‘development projects’ to ‘institution building’

Transition involves:

Legal status – budget, operations, entitlements

Strengthening implementation capacity

Institutional coordination within government

Domestic financing

Ministries of Social Development – social protection networks

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Financing

Most countries spend between 1% and 2 % of GDP in social assistance

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Au

stra

lia(O

ECD

)

Djib

ou

ti(S

SN)

Mal

awi(

SSN

)

New

Zea

lan

d(O

ECD

)

Ukr

ain

e(SS

N)

Un

ited

Kin

gdo

m(O

ECD

)

Bo

tsw

ana(

SSN

)

Irel

and

(OEC

D)

Ko

sovo

(SSN

)

St. V

ince

nt

and

th

e G

ren

adin

es(S

SN)

Arm

enia

(SSN

)

St. L

uci

a(SS

N)

Uzb

ekis

tan

(SSN

)

Mo

rocc

o(S

SN)

Cro

atia

(SSN

)

Nam

ibia

(SSI

)

Do

min

ican

Rep

ub

lic(S

SN)

Mo

ldo

va(S

SN)

Cze

ch R

epu

blic

(OEC

D)

Gre

nad

a(SS

N)

Bu

rkin

a Fa

so(S

SI)

Ger

man

y(O

ECD

)

Arg

enti

na(

SSN

)

Geo

rgia

(SSN

)

Bra

zil(

SSN

)

Serb

ia(S

SN)

Latv

ia(S

SN)

Gre

ece

(OEC

D)

Un

ited

Sta

tes(

OEC

D)

Bu

lgar

ia(S

SN)

Tan

zan

ia(S

SI)

Ban

glad

esh

(AD

B)

Net

her

lan

ds(

OEC

D)

Po

lan

d(O

ECD

)

Ecu

ado

r(SS

N)

Nic

arag

ua(

SSN

)

Vie

tnam

(SSN

)

Den

mar

k(O

ECD

)

El S

alva

do

r(SS

N)

St. K

itts

an

d N

evis

(SSN

)

Ben

in(S

SI)

Bel

giu

m(O

ECD

)

Cô

te d

'Ivo

ire(

SSI)

Mau

rita

nia

(SSI

)

Jam

aica

(SSN

)

Pe

ru(S

SN)

Ko

rea(

OEC

D)

Kyr

gyz

Rep

ub

lic(S

SN)

Ven

ezu

ela,

RB

(SSN

)

Hu

nga

ry(O

ECD

)

Swed

en(O

ECD

)

Co

ok

Isla

nd

s(A

DB

)

Luxe

mb

ou

rg(O

ECD

)

Uru

guay

(SSN

)

Nig

er(S

SI)

Par

agu

ay(S

SN)

Ind

on

esia

(AD

B)

Mal

div

es(A

DB

)

Zim

bab

we(

SSI)

Ph

ilip

pin

es(S

SN)

Cam

bo

dia

(AD

B)

Lao

(AD

B)

Mal

aysi

a(A

DB

)

Van

uat

u(A

DB

)

Ch

ad(S

SI)

Ton

ga(A

DB

)

Bh

uta

n(A

DB

)

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For many middle income countries, the issue is not larger budgets but fewer and more

effective programmes (Bangladesh has over 95 social protection programmes; while

Chile had 143 in 2002)

For low income countries, financing social assistance is a challenge because of their

low revenue collection capacity

International assistance has a limited role in supporting antipoverty transfers,

mainly to help overcome the large initial costs of new programmes

In low and middle income countries, consumption taxes and natural resource

revenues provide the fiscal space for the expansion of social assistance

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‘Narratives’ of social assistance financing in the South: Legitimacy

Chile’s return to democracy after seventeen years of dictatorship in 1990 was led by a centre-left

coalition of parties. The coalition was committed to expanding social expenditure, especially poverty

reduction. This was financed by a rise of two percent in the tax burden, distributed across rises in

corporate taxes, personal income taxation, and VAT.

In 1994, Bolivia was poised to privatise state-owned enterprises, especially in the energy sector. To

facilitate public consent, the government proposed to maintain one-half of the shares in the privatised

enterprises in a Special Fund. The returns from this Fund were to be used to finance a regular transfer to

the adult cohort (aged twenty-one or over in 1995). After further debate, the transfer became a non-

contributory pension, the Bono de Solidaridad, payable from the age of sixty-five. The government of Evo

Morales extended entitlement to the transfer to all Bolivians on reaching sixty years of age.

Non-contributory pension programmes introduced in Lesotho (2004) and Swaziland (2006) are

linked to revenues from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU).

Antipoverty transfer programmes in Zambia, Uganda and Ethiopia are financed by bilateral aid,

through a Memorandum of Understanding between donors and the government. In Ghana, the initial

financing of the LEAP (Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty) Programme was linked to HIPC debt

cancellation, but bilateral donors also contributed.

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Conclusions

Rapid growth of social assistance in low and middle income countries

Diversity in programme design – path dependence and poverty perspectives

Programme design and objectives of transfer programmes informed by poverty research

Programmes show variation in effectiveness, but well designed and implemented antipoverty

programmes have the potential to reduce poverty and inequality

Sustainability depends on:


Shift to domestic financing

Antipoverty transfers, together with growth and service provision, will make an important

contribution to a zero extreme poverty target;

…this will require strengthening domestic political processes, financing, and capacity

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Social Assistance in Developing Countries

Cambridge University Press

September 2013

ISBN 9781107039025

antipoverty transfers and the post-2015 development agenda

Government & Nonprofit

transfers diversity

poverty headcount rate

south social assistance

politics page

middle income countries

school of social

social assistancepage

extreme poverty rate