anurandha annaswamy: computation model of the nexus between natural gas and electricity...
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A Computation Model of the Nexus between Natural Gas and Electricity
Infrastructures
Active-adaptive Control Laboratory Department of Mechanical Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Anuradha Annaswamy
Joint work with Neha Nandakumar
EnergyTech 2015, Cleveland, November 30, 2015
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Natural Gas and Electricity Infrastructures
β’ Gas-fired units are increasing due to: o reduced footprint and increased efficiency compared to coal, o higher penetration of volatile renewable power, and o the need to reduce energy imports from foreign sources.
β’ Efficient interaction between the two infrastructures is therefore highly important!
Interdependence between the two
infrastructures
EnergyTech 2015
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From the Boston Globe
September 25, 2014
1
Cold weather High penetration of natural gas
β’ The price of electricity increases as the electric generation mix encompasses more natural gas
ISO-NE fuel mix on October 29, 2015, 7:10 PM
EnergyTech 2015
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Consumption of Gas by the Electricity Sector
November 2015 Monthly Energy Review http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/mer.pdf
β’ Electric consumption of gas increased over the past few years and trends expected to increase
β’ Electric consumption greater than consumption of every other individual sector
Electric consumers not a trivial participant in gas markets
Electric consumer
RCI Consumers
EnergyTech 2015
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Implications of Renewable Generation
ππππππ πΊπ = πΊππππ + πΊππ’πππππ + πΊπππ + πΊπππ + πΊβπ¦πππ +πΊπ ππππ + πΊπ€πππ
β’ With greater retirement of fossil fuel generation and increased penetration of renewable generation into the electric grid, the reliance on natural gas as a flexible fuel to accommodate fluctuating renewable generation is increasing
Gas
Renewable
Coal
Nuclear
Generation Mix (as of Nov 28, 2014)
EnergyTech 2015
Gas
Renewable
Oil
Potential Generation Mix with increasing renewables
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Interdependency between NG and Electricity Networks
Natural Gas Network IEEE 118-bus Electricity Network
Gas Marketer
Natural Gas Power Plant
(NGPP)
ISO-NE Electric
Dispatch
Renewable Penetration
β’ Interaction is affected by o Material flow o Market flow
β’ Material flow β Pipeline architecture, Linepack, Storage β’ Market flow β Access to gas for NGPP is primarily in
spot/secondary markets via non-firm contracts
EnergyTech 2015
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RCIT
Natural Gas Infrastructure β Market Model
Marketer (or Pipeline Operator)
Gas Producers
Main
Local Distribution Companies (LDC)
RCI Consumers
Interstate Pipelines
Marketer (or Pipeline Operator)
Local Distribution Companies (LDC)
RCI Consumers
Distribution Pipelines Commodity Contracts
Capacity Contracts
Our focus: To develop a computation model depicting market transactions within the NG-E combined network
NGPP
NGPP
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Interdependency between NG and Electricity Networks β Market Flow
Gas Marketer
Natural Gas Power Plant
(NGPP)
ISO-NE Electric
Dispatch
Renewable Penetration
Bilateral transaction between marketer and NGPP
NGPP bids to ISO
NGPP gets dispatched amount to produce
Adjustments to dispatch in real time markets
IEEE 118-bus Electricity Network
Two main issues: β’ Market misalignment β’ Unequal access to gas between NGPPs (GenCos) and RCITs (LDCs)
EnergyTech 2015
Natural Gas Network
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Market misalignment in Day Ahead Market
12:00 am
6:00 am
12:00 pm
6:00 pm
12:00 am
Timely Nomination
Evening Nomination
Electric Day
Gas Day New
β’ Less uncertainty in DAM due to FERC 809 ruling - Genco knows how much gas they need, and nominate accordingly on the gas day (B occurs after A)
β’ Unequal access due to non-firm contracts β gas is available only if RCITs release gas
Bids to ISO Schedule
Posted
A
B
EnergyTech 2015
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Market misalignment in Real-time Market
12:00 am
6:00 am
12:00 pm
6:00 pm
12:00 am
Intraday Nomination 1
Timely Nomination
Intraday Nomination 2
Intraday Nomination 3
6:00 am
12:00 pm
6:00 pm
12:00 am
Evening Nomination
Electric Day
Gas Day New
β’ Only 3 instances when NGPPs find out if additional gas will be available β’ Unequal access β gas is available only if RCITs release gas β’ NGPPs may not be able to meet their dispatch
Bids to ISO
Schedule Posted
Schedule Reposted
Re-bid for gas
EnergyTech 2015
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Implications of Renewable Generation
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 35049.88
49.9
49.92
49.94
49.96
49.98
50
50.02
50.04
T ime [s]
Bu
sF
requ
enci
es[H
z]β’ If gas plants cannot meet their dispatch needs hourly and make up for renewable
generation fluctuations, there can be a power imbalance, leading to frequency errors
ππππππ πΊπ = πΊππππ + πΊππ’πππππ + πΊπππ + πΊπππ + πΊβπ¦πππ +πΊπ ππππ + πΊπ€πππ
EnergyTech 2015
Gas
Renewable
Oil
Potential Generation Mix with increasing renewables
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Interdependency between NG and Electricity Networks β Unequal access
Natural Gas Network (MA)
Gas Marketer
Natural Gas Power Plant
(NGPP)
ISO-NE Electric
Dispatch
Renewable Penetration
Bilateral transaction between marketer and NGPP
NGPP bids to ISO
NGPP gets dispatched amount to produce
Adjustments to dispatch in real time markets
IEEE 118-bus Electricity Network
Two main issues: β’ Market misalignment β’ Unequal access to gas between NGPPs (GenCos) and RCITs (LDCs)
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Marketer 1
Computational Model
π’(π, π, β )
π’(π, π, β )
Valuation function of customer provided to each seller Quantity
of gas Price for gas
Preference type
π£1(π, π, β )
π£2(π, π, β )
WTP for secondary release capacity
Price setter for firm capacity
Price setter for different contract types
Marketer 2
Marketer 3
Pipeline Company
Producer
Consumer
1
Consumer 2
Consumers/LDCs can be on interruptible or firm contracts for commodity and capacity
Marketer-consumer bilateral transactions (with or without bidding)
Transactions regarding sale of capacity
Transactions regarding sale of commodity
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Computational Model (contd.)
π’π π π , π βπ = π’π πΊ, π, β = β π πΊ β π
πΈπ’0 π π , π βπ = ππ ππ β ππΊπ + ππ’(ππ’ β ππΊπ’)
πΊπ β€ π½πΆπ
5
π
πΊπ β₯ 0
55
π
πΊπ = ππππππ
5
π
β ππ πΊπ β ππ β₯ 0
β π’π πΊπ’ β ππ’ β₯ β π’π πΊπ β ππ
s.t.
s.t. π β€ ππ β ππ
NGPP/Consumer
Gas Marketer M1
M2
M3
C1
C2
π’(π, π, β )
Quantity of gas
Price for gas
Preference type
β π or β π’ are of type non-firm and firm contracts where β π = bundle (Gπ, ππ) β π’ = bundle (Gπ’, ππ’) And the marketer chooses {β π, β
π’} to maximize its profit
EnergyTech 2015
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Computational Model (contd.)
M1
M2
M3
C1
C2
β’ Posed as a constrained optimization problem
β’ Optimization objective: Marketersβ profit
β’ Constraints: Capacity, Feasibility
β’ Mass balance
β’ Demand: From NGPPs
Marketer-NGPP interaction
maxβ ππππ,π,ππ πΊπππ β πΊπππ β β πΆπππ πΊππ β(πππ β πΆππ)
NG Dispatch model
to each NGPP
Electricity Market
Spot price, Allocated
quantity
Electricity Dispatch
Overall Structure of Analysis
πΊπ β€ π½πΆπ
5
π
πΊπ β₯ 0
55
π
πΊπ = ππππππ
5
π
EnergyTech 2015
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Modeling of Unequal Access
β’ Focus on Secondary Release Capacity Market and Spot Market
ππ: Pipeline Capacity π·πΏπ·πΆ : RCIT Demand πΆπ: Spot gas on Secondary Market
π½ = 1 βπ·πΏπ·πΆ,ππ·ππ£
πΆπ = ππ β π·πΏπ·πΆ
Better models of π½ under investigation
π½: capacity available to electric consumers β measure of unequal access
EnergyTech 2015
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Massachusetts Case Study to Compute Cr, π½
Gas Node 1
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
NGPP1 NGPP2 NGPP3 NGPP4 NGPP5
Gas Node 2
Gas Node
4
Gas Node 5
Gas Node 4
Gas Node 5
β’ From actual monthly gas demand data, daily gas demand (LDC and NGPPs) calculated for state of
MA from Sept 2014 β April 2015
β’ Actual data from five main receipt point nodes from the Algonquin pipeline
β’ Assume 5 marketers of natural gas and 5 NGPPs owned by one generating firm
β’ The generating firm has equal or unequal access to gas with the marketers (as LDCs)
β’ Each marketer is tied to one node, and each of the 5 NGPPs are tied to one node where each
marketer can sell gas to any of the 5 NGPPs
EnergyTech 2015
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Gas Dispatch to Gas Bids given Equal vs. Unequal Access to Secondary Release Capacity Market (SRCM)
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Ratio of Gas Dispatch to Gas Bids given Equal Access to SRCM Sept 2014 - Jan 2015
D1/B1 D2/B2 D3/B3 D4/B4 D5/B5
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Ratio of Gas Dispatch to Gas Bids Given Unequal Access to SRCM Sept 2014 - Jan 2015
D1/B1 D2/B2 D3/B3 D4/B4 D5/B5
Zero dispatch implies inadequate pipeline capacity
Instances of zero dispatch can increase with renewable penetration
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Summary
Gas Marketer
Natural Gas Power Plant
(NGPP)
ISO-NE Electric
Dispatch
Renewable Penetration
β’ Nexus between NG and Electricity is of growing importance β’ Our computational model focuses on market and material flow β’ Market flow
o Market misalignment β can lead to power imbalance o Unequal access to gas β with growing renewables, can lead to increased instances of zero
dispatch
IEEE 118-bus Electricity Network
EnergyTech 2015
Natural Gas Network
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Work in Progress
Gas Marketer
Natural Gas Power Plant
(NGPP)
ISO-NE Electric
Dispatch
Renewable Penetration
β’ Obtain accurate data for NGPP curtailments o How often do NGPPs get curtailed the gas they bid for and canβt produce what the ISO
schedules them? o Complete or partial curtailment? On what timeline?
β’ Better modeling of market flow β’ Modeling of material flow β’ Interconnection with dynamic market mechanisms for electricity dispatch
IEEE 118-bus Electricity Network
EnergyTech 2015
Natural Gas Network