anz commodity daily 603 130412

8/2/2019 ANZ Commodity Daily 603 130412

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ANZ RESEARCH

COMMODITY DAILYContacts: Mark Pervan +613 9273 3716 | [email protected] Robertson +613 9273 3415 | [email protected]

MARKET HI GHLI GHTS OVERNI GHT WRAP

Oi l f i rm ed on im proved r i s k appe t i t e ahead o f Ch ina da t a Gold rose on fur ther dec l ines in the US do l la r Base m e t a l s ga ined on pos i t i ve Ch ina g row t h p rospect s Coa l down , subdued dem and & r i s i ng f r e igh t con t r i bu t i ng

OVERNI GHT RANKED PRI CE MOVES (% )

(0.6)

0.0

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.4

1.7

1.8

2.2

2.3

2.5

3.3

(1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

USD (DXY)

Co al (NEWC)

Aluminium

Gold

Tin

WTI Oil

Platinum

S&P 500

Baltic F reight

Lead

Zinc

Copper

Silver

Nickel

WEEK-TO-DATE RANKED PRICE MOVES ( % )

(2.3)

(1.4)

(0.9)

(0.8)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.1)

0.3

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.7

3.4

(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

Tin

Copper

USD (DXY)

S&P 500

Aluminium

Co al (NEWC)

Platinum

WTI Oil

Nickel

Lead

Silver

Zinc

Gold

Baltic F reight

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy

Overn igh t Them es Commodities tracked the positive tone inwider markets after a Chinese government researcher

suggested that Q1 GDP could be as strong as 9.0%y/y (mkt:

8.4 y/y). ANZ is forecasting an above consensus read of

8.6%y/y. We are also expecting domestic activity indicators to

have remained upbeat, with industrial production growth

forecasted to have growth to 12.0%y/y (last: 11.4%y/y; mkt:

11.5%y/y) As the global economic outlook remains uncertain,

Chinas data dump will certainly impact commodity demand

sentiment and provide guidance on Chinas near-term policy

actions. Yesterday, Chinas bank lending in March increased by

RMB1.01trn, much higher than market expectations

(+RMB797bn). These data suggest that Chinese economic

activity in March could have accelerated and that the central

banks open market operations, often ignored by the market,

have been quite effective so far. With Q1 monetary conditions

being more accommodative this year than in the same period

last year, we think that the March monthly economic indicators

should turn out to be quite strong.

Crude benchm ark s f i rm ed , supported by an improvement inrisk appetite ahead of Chinas GDP read. In addition, last

nights US trade data boosted sentiment for first quarter

growth, helping drive WTI back towards the US$104/bbl level.

Although this time Brent outperformed, widening the Brent-WTI

spread above US$18/bbl. Prices firmed despite an IEA oil

market report suggesting that oil markets were oversupplied in

the first quarter, with oil stocks up 1.2mbbls/day. It appears

that risk-on/risk-off trade flows are influencing oil prices more

than fundamentals at the moment with market participants

likely to have already fully priced in a supply risk premium.

Gold rose 1 . 0% t o US$1 , 676 / oz, after a breakdown in theUS dollar to a fresh 7-day low. Silver and palladium were the

outperformers, with CME Group margin cuts for silver (-13%)

and palladium (-10%) futures on Comex & Nymex

(respectively) contributing to gains in both markets.

Base meta ls s t rengthened , with bell-wether copper draggingthe rest of the metal complex higher as Chinese growth

expectations turned positive. The firmer Euro against the dollar

also supported the rally, as concerns over Europes debt crisis

eased after a drop in Italian and Spanish bond yields. The boost

in Chinas bank lending in March was encouraging, while

stronger March car sales in China added to the upbeat tone in

base metal markets. Comex copper received an additional

boost after CME Group cut margins by 20% to US$5,400 for

copper futures.

Newcas t l e coa l f r on t m on t h f u t u res f e l l s l i gh t l y . Buyingfrom Australia still appeared to be soft, while rising freight

rates exacerbated the pull-back in activity. Instead,

competitors appear to be picking up exports, with reports

suggesting Q1 2012 coal supply from Colombia up 19% y/y on

increased demand from Brazil and China.

Apr i l 13 , 2012


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COMMODITY DATA

Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

LME BASE METALS (US$/t) LME BASE METALS (kt)

Aluminium 2,065 0.2 (0.3) (6.5) (6.0) Aluminium 5,060 0.2 0.0 (0.3) 1.1

Copper 8,266 2.3 (1.4) (3.7) (1.1) Copper 266 (0.4) 0.5 (0.6) (24.2)

Nickel 18,635 3.3 1.6 (3.4) (7.5) Nickel 98 (0.9) (1.7) 1.3 7.2

Zinc 2,045 2.2 2.3 (1.7) 1.6 Zinc 900 (0.0) 0.6 3.8 7.1

Lead 2,098 1.8 1.9 0.1 (2.7) Lead 374 (0.3) (0.3) 2.3 7.1

Tin 22,588 1.0 (2.3) (4.5) 3.5 Tin 13 0.6 1.2 14.3 23.1

PRECI OUS METALS (US$/oz) Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

Gold 1,676 1.0 2.7 1.0 1.1

Gold (A$/oz) 1,606 (0.2) 1.5 2.0 0.7 S&P 500 1,388 1.4 (0.8) (1.1) 5.6

Silver 32.4 2.5 2.1 (0.4) 5.6 VIX Volatility Index 17 (14.1) 3.0 11.5 (13.4)

Platinum 1,604 1.1 (0.1) (4.9) 5.4 CRB Index 306 1.2 (0.3) (3.3) (2.0)

Palladium 653 2.2 1.1 (7.5) (3.6) LME Metals Index 3,542 1.9 (0.7) (4.3) (2.7)

ENERGY (US$/bbl) Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

WTI Oil* 104 1.1 0.3 (1.4) 3.2

Brent Oil* 122 1.3 (1.4) (1.5) 9.1 Baltic Freight Rate 960 1.7 3.4 10.9 7.5

Sing Gasoil 0.5% 133 0.0 (1.7) (3.1) 2.1 Baltic Capesize 1,576 1.0 4.6 6.8 1.1

Sing Fuel Oil 180cst(US$/t) 731 0.0 (1.7) (2.5) 0.4 Baltic Panamax 1,110 3.5 7.1 16.0 4.9

OTHER (US$/t) Baltic Handysize 537 0.0 (1.8) 7.4 8.3

China HR Coil (RmB/t) 4,393 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.0 Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

Richards Bay Coal API4 103 0.2 0.0 (0.3) (1.9)

Newcastle Coal*** 106 (0.5) (0.3) (0.6) (7.6) DXY - USD Index 79.3 (0.6) (0.9) (1.0) (1.1)

Australia Coking Coal** 208 1.1 (0.9) (7.3) AUD/USD - Aussie 1.044 1.2 1.2 (1.0) 0.3

Iron Ore Spot 149 0.1 0.8 2.6 6.5 NZD/USD - Kiwi 0.827 1.0 1.2 0.9 3.1

Com m od i t ies I n ven t or ies% Chang e % Ch ange

% Ch a n g eCurrenc ies

% Ch a n g eK ey Ind ices

% Ch a n g eFre igh t

105

110

115

120

125

Apr Jun A ug Oct Dec Feb

NEWCASTLE COALUS$/t

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

GOLDUS$/oz

70

80

90

100

110

120

A pr Jun A ug Oct Dec Feb

W T I OI LUS$/bbl

0.94

0.97

1.00

1.03

1.06

1.09

1.12

A pr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

A UDA$

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000


NI CKELUS$/t

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000


COPPERUS$/t

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900


A L UM I N I U MUS$/t

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600


Z I N CUS$/tUS$/t

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0


SI LVERUS$/oz

Notes: * Front-month futures ** Weekly prices ***Newcastle ICE coal futures contract

Sources: Bloomberg, McCloskey, ANZ Commodity Strategy


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ANZ FORECASTS

ANZ For ecast Table 1

COMMODI TY Un i t Ju n - 11 Sep -11 Dec- 11 Mar - 12 Ju n - 12 Sep - 12 Dec- 12 Mar - 13 Ju n -1 3 Sep - 13 Dec- 13

BASE METALS

Aluminium US$/lb 1.18 1.09 0.95 0.96 1.01 1.02 1.05 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.06

Copper US$/lb 4.16 4.07 3.41 3.62 3.85 3.98 4.08 4.08 4.13 4.15 3.95

Nickel US$/lb 11.05 9.98 8.34 8.70 9.15 9.70 10.15 10.25 10.40 10.45 10.15

Zinc US$/lb 1.02 1.01 0.86 0.87 0.90 0.91 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.04

Lead US$/lb 1.16 1.11 0.90 0.94 0.96 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.05 1.06 1.07

Tin US$/lb 13.08 11.16 9.45 9.09 9.45 9.75 10.30 10.55 10.80 10.95 10.80

PRECI OUS METALS

Gold US$/oz 1,508 1,706 1,683 1,632 1,740 1,790 1,815 1,855 1,870 1,830 1,770

Platinum US$/oz 1,785 1,771 1,531 1,526 1,685 1,700 1,700 1,765 1,795 1,765 1,725

Palladium US$/oz 760 752 630 673 700 730 775 820 850 850 838

Silver US$/oz 38.5 38.9 31.8 31.2 34.8 35.3 36.2 37.4 37.5 36.9 36.3

ENERGY

WTI NYMEX US$/bbl 102.5 89.5 94.1 102.4 107.0 108.5 111.0 114.5 116.5 116.0 114.5

Dated Brent US$/bbl 117.0 112.9 109.3 115.8 123.5 122.5 123.0 124.5 125.0 123.5 121.0

Uranium US$/lb 56.4 51.8 52.6 53.1 56.0 60.5 65.0 68.5 71.5 74.0 76.0

BULKS

Thermal coal2 US$/t 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 125.0 125.0 125.0

Premium hard coking US$/t 330.0 315.0 285.0 235.0 206.0 215.0 220.0 220.0 225.0 225.0 220.0

Hard coking US$/t 300.0 290.0 265.0 225.0 196.0 195.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 195.0

Semi-soft coking coal US$/t 275.0 230.0 208.0 171.0 151.0 170.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 170.0

Iron ore lump US$/t 206.1 202.0 177.6 168.0 175.2 180.0 183.9 183.9 181.5 176.7 173.2

Iron ore fines US$/t 171.8 168.3 148.0 140.0 146.0 150.0 152.0 152.0 150.0 146.0 142.0

OTHER METALS

Alumina US$/t 326 300 262 265 278 280 288 291 288 288 291

Molybdenum US$/lb 16.7 14.6 13.4 13.8 14.8 15.8 16.3 16.5 16.8 16.9 16.7

Cobalt US$/lb 18.3 17.1 15.1 14.8 15.3 16.2 16.8 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.0

EXCHANGE RATES

AUD/USD US$ 1.08 1.05 1.04 1.06 1.05 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10

NZD/USD US$ 0.82 0.83 0.79 0.83 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90

EUR/USD US$ 1.46 1.41 1.35 1.33 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.36 1.34

USD/JPY 81.03 76.78 77.48 80.06 78.96 75.67 73.00 70.67 70.00 70.00 70.00

USD/CAD C$ 0.96 0.99 1.01 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10

USD/CNY Yuan 6.46 6.38 6.36 6.29 6.27 6.23 6.14 6.10 6.08 #/NA #/NA

Note 1: Average prices Note 2: Thermal coal prices are for JPY year starting April 1 Note 3: Historical data are actuals

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy, ANZ FX Strategy


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anz commodity daily 603 130412

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