“free” media and information · – this presentation tracks “free” content consistently...

21
“Free” Media and Information Rachel Soloveichik BEA Advisory Committee Meeting May 10, 2019

Upload: others

Post on 20-May-2020

6 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

“Free” Media and Information

Rachel Soloveichik

BEA Advisory Committee Meeting

May 10, 2019

Page 2: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

Media and Information Content in the NIPAs

•A small amount of content is sold explicitly– Currently tracked in the NIPAs directly

•Other content is bundled with sold products– For example, a flour bag might include recipes– Currently tracked in the NIPAs indirectly

•Most content is offered “free”– “Free” content is currently not tracked in the NIPAs  – Some researchers have argued that tracking “free” digital content would reverse the recent productivity slowdown (Brynjolfsson and Oh 2012, Dean et al. 2012, Brynjolfsson et al. 2017, Chen et al. 2014) 

– This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content

2

Page 3: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

Experimental Methods to Track “Free” Content

•Content as household production

•Content as a barter transaction– Media users view advertising in return for “free” media– Information users view marketing in return for “free” information– Shoppers listen to sales pitches in return for “free” experiences– Some users provide personal data rather than viewership/listenership

•The Advisory Committee saw early work on advertising‐supported media in 2015– Jon Samuels and Leonard Nakamura have since joined the project– We study marketing, productivity and user‐generated content

3

Page 4: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

User‐Generated Content in 2016

User‐Generated Content is a one‐way transaction:• Volunteers offer content to the public without any expectation of payment• Like other volunteer services, user‐generated content is considered 

household production and is out of scope for GDP• Including user‐generated content in GDP would raise the nominal GDP level 

by 51 billion in 2016 and the growth rate by 0.04 percentage points per year

6486

99115121127

170192

224

0 50 100 150 200 250

Create personal graphics/presentationsShare videos you have made online

Post a comment on other's blogLike/Recommend/Share/+1 a product

Post a comment or reviewPersonal status updates/microblog/Twitter

Share photos onlineUpload photos for your social network

Comment on someone else's social media

Millions of American Adults• Source: Technology User Profile

4

Page 5: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

GDP Impact of “Free” Content

Nominal GDP level

(2016)

Real GDP Growthpercentage points per year

2005‐2017 1995‐2005 1929‐1995

Digital Content 159B 0.11% 0.11% ‐

Audiovisual Content 236B 0.05% 0.06% 0.03%

Print Content 59B ‐0.04% 0.01% 0.02%

Shopping Experiences 524B 0.03% 0.06% ‐0.03%

Total 978B 0.16% 0.24% 0.03%5

Page 6: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

Productivity Impact of “Free” Content

Nominal GDP level

(2016)

Productivity Growthpercentage points per year

2005‐2017 1995‐2005 1929‐1995

Digital Content 159B 0.12% 0.04% ‐

Audiovisual Content 236B 0.02% 0.04% 0.01%

Print Content 59B ‐0.04% 0.04% 0.04%

Shopping Experiences 524B 0.08% 0.12% ‐0.03%

Total 978B 0.18% 0.24% 0.02%6

Page 7: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

Treatment of Bartered Content in NIPAs

•Current Treatment:– GDP accounts don’t track bartered content as industry output, industry input or personal consumption expenditures

– Measured GDP rises when sold content replaces bartered content

•Experimental Treatment:– Content providers and users are assumed to engage in a barter transaction

• Value of viewership/listenership/personal data = value of content

– Experimental NIPAs track “free” content consistently with sold content• “Free” content appears as industry output, industry input, and personal consumption expenditures

– “Free” content is valued based on production costs

7

Page 8: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

Experimental Treatment of Bartered Content

•Content providers and users engage in barter:– Media users view advertising in return for “free” media– Information users view marketing in return for “free” information– Shoppers listen to sales pitches in return for “free” experiences– Some users provide personal data rather than viewership/listenership

•Experimental NIPAs track bartered content as industry output, industry input and consumption

•Content values are based on production costs– Value of viewership/listenership/personal data = value of content

8

Page 9: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

Derivation of Nominal Content Values in 2012

Data Source Used: Source Value

Multiplier to Get Content

Content Value

Sold Advertising: Product Line Detail in Economic Census for NAICS 51 $171B 1 $171B

In‐House Advertising: Industry Literature ‐ ‐ $8B

Sold Marketing: Product Line Detail in Economic Census for NAICS 54  $102B 1.36 $140B

In‐House Marketing: Occupational Employment Survey (OES) Data on 

Marketing Specialist Earnings$29B 8.46 $247B

Verbal Shopping Experiences: OES Data on Sales Specialist Earnings $317B 0.87 $276B

Display Shopping Experiences: BEA Data on Real Estate by Category $711B 0.32 $225B

Tactile Shopping Experiences: National Retail Federation and Industry Literature $260B 0.5 $130B9

Page 10: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

20171997197719571937

Print

Advertising‐Supported Media

Advertising is a three‐way impersonal transaction:• Users barter viewership for media content          • Media companies resell the viewership to outside companies      • Outside companies use the viewership to promote products to the public

AudiovisualDigital

Consumer Content as Share of Nominal GDP

Page 11: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

20171997197719571937

Marketing is a two‐way impersonal transaction:• Users barter viewership for marketing content       • Marketers use the viewership in‐house to promote products to the public

Marketing‐Supported Information

Digital

Audiovisual

Print

Consumer Content as a Share of Nominal GDP

11

Page 12: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

20161996197619561936

Sales is a two‐way personal transaction:• Users barter listenership for shopping experiences         • Salespeople use the listenership in‐house to promote products to individuals

Sales‐Supported Shopping Experiences

Tactile

DisplayVerbal

Consumer Experiences as a Share of Nominal GDP

12

Page 13: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

Sources Tracking Bartered Content

•Advertising‐Supported Media:– The Economic Census and industry sources track advertising revenue

•Marketing‐Supported Information:– The Economic Census reports purchased marketing services– The Occupational Employment Survey reports employment of marketing professionals, which is then used to track in‐house marketing production

•Sales‐Supported Experiences:– The Occupational Employment Survey is used to track verbal experiences– BEA’s fixed asset accounts provide values for the real estate used to create display experiences

– National Retail Federation reports are used to track tactile experiences

13

Page 14: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

Sources Tracking Bartered Content

•Advertising‐Supported Media:– The Economic Census and industry sources track advertising revenue

•Marketing‐Supported Information:– The Economic Census reports purchased marketing services– The Occupational Employment Survey reports employment of marketing professionals, which is then used to track in‐house marketing production

•Sales‐Supported Experiences:– The Occupational Employment Survey is used to track verbal experiences– BEA’s fixed asset accounts provide values for the real estate used to create display experiences

– National Retail Federation reports are used to track tactile experiences

14

Page 15: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

Derivation of Content Prices

Proxy Price Series Weight

DigitalCloud Services (Byrne, Corrado and Sichel 2018) 0.5Own‐Account Software (NIPA Table 5.6.4, line 5) 0.5

Audio‐visual

Television Originals (NIPA Table 5.6.4, line 24) 0.53Sporting Events (NIPA Table 2.4.4U, line 212) 0.13

PrintTelecommunications (NIPA Table 2.4.4, line 97) 0.33

Book Originals (NIPA Table 5.6.4, line 25) 0.85

Verbal Salesperson Labor Costs (CIU2010000210000I) 1

Display Shopping Center Leasing (PCU5311205311201) 1

Tactile Prices for Goods Damaged (NIPA Table 2.4.4) 115

Page 16: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

20171997197719571937

Relative Prices for “Free” Content

Ratio of “Free” Content Prices to Overall GDP Prices,2012 Base Year

Audiovisual

Print

Combined Shopping

Digital

Page 17: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

‐4.0%

‐3.0%

‐2.0%

‐1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

20171997197719571937

Real GDP Impact of “Free” ContentRevision to GDP Quantity Index as a Share of the 

Original Index, 2012 Base Year

Digital

Audiovisual

Combined Shopping

Print

17

Page 18: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

Impact on Total Factor Productivity (TFP)

•Bartered content raises both industry output and industry input– Digital content, print content, audiovisual content, verbal experiences, display experiences and tactile experiences are all tracked as new output

– Digital viewership, print viewership, audiovisual viewership and sales listenership are all tracked as new intermediate inputs

– TFP=(User Service Input Price)/(“Free” Content Output Price)

•We calculate TFP for each of the 61 private sector industries tracked by BEA and BLS in their joint production accounts– Results for individual industries or sectors are available upon request

18

Page 19: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

‐3.0%

‐2.0%

‐1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2017199719771957

TFP Impact of “Free” Content

Revision to TFP Index as a Share of the Original Index, 2012 Base Year

Audiovisual

Digital

Print

Combined Shopping

19

Page 20: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

Conclusions

•Businesses produced $1.4 trillion of “free” content in 2016:– $252 billion of advertising‐supported media– $465 billion of marketing‐supported information– $716 billion of sales‐supported experiences– Nominal GDP rises by $1 trillion when “free” consumer content is included in personal consumption expenditures

•Tracking content increases growth after 2005:– Nominal GDP growth increases by 0.01 percentage points per year

– Real GDP growth increases by 0.16 percentage points per year

– TFP growth increases by 0.18 percentage points per year

20

Page 21: “Free” Media and Information · – This presentation tracks “free” content consistently with sold content 2. ... Uploadphotos for your social network Commentonsomeoneelse's

Next Steps

•BEA’s Digital Economy Satellite Account– Contribute to the ‘Digital Media’ component

•OECD’s Initiative on Digital Supply‐Use Tables– Contribute to ‘Data and Advertising Driven Digital Platforms’ industries/products

•International Statistical Standards– Contribute to collaborative efforts with international organizations and statistical offices to introduce future improvements in economic measurement

21