“impact of advanced memory technologies on cmp industry”€¦ · 11/07/2018 · outlook •...

www.linx-consulting.com

“Impact of Advanced Memory Technologies on CMP Industry”

CMPUG July 11, 2018

Mike CorbettLinx Consulting Inc.


Outline

• Introduction to Linx Consulting

• Semi Industry Outlook

• CMP in Advanced Devices

• Conclusions


Introduction to Linx Consulting


Linx Consulting

North America

China

SEA & India

Europe

Japan

Korea

Taiwan

1. We help our clients to succeed by creating know ledge and developing unique insights at the intersection of electronic thin film processes and the chemicals industry on a global basis

2. The know ledge is based on a core understanding of the semiconductor device technology; manufacturing processes and roadmaps; and the global structural industry dynamics

3. This know ledge is leveraged to create advanced models, simulations and real-world forecasts

4. Our perspectives are by direct research and leveraging our extensive experience throughout the global industry value chain

Finance &Technology

Raws & Chemicals Equipment Services End-users &

Consortia


MSI Breakdown & Forecasts


Linx Consulting Service Portfolio


Semi Industry Outlook


Market Inflections

2010 2020

Materials Market Drivers

PCs and Internet

Mobile

Connected World

Connected WorldAI / Machine learning

IoT / Big data / VR / ARAutonomous vehicles / ADAS

Mfg. Inflections10/7/5 nm foundry

3D NAND China

CMP ImpactCMP Intensity Increases

New Materials


Record Levels of Capex

Vertical scaling helps drive Materials Growth and CMP


Latest MSI Forecast by ESF Model

MSI DRIVESCMP AND OTHER FAB MATERIALS


Silicon Forecast

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

MSI

NAND-3D

NAND-2D

DRAM

MPU

ASIC 300mm

ASIC 200mm

Discrete 200mm

Analog 200mm

MSI

Advent of 3D


MSI Vs. Slurries and Pads

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

MSI $M

MSISlurry and Pad Market, Semi wafer fab operations


Wafer Supply May Cause Disruption

300mm

• Brownfield Investment is being made by leaders

• 300mm contracts are in place for larger end-users.

• China producers still need 3 to 5 years to quality

• Expect 300mm wafer shortages for smaller end-users

• Suppliers may not be prepared for growth

200mm

• US and Europe have stronger than expected outlook

• Auto and IOT applications drive continued 200mm growth

• Fabs are using reclaim wafers for production

• 200mm shortages beginning in 3Q 2017

• Global Wafer has increased 200mm supply

• 200mm from China are of sufficient quality

2016 2017 2018

Shipment 300mm

Shipment 200mm

Capacity 300mm

Capacity 200mm


Linx WFM Liquidity Index

-11%

55%

16%

45%

54%

-3%

14%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

PlatformSpecialty

Entegris Inc. VersumMaterials

Cabot Micro KMG Chemicals JSR ORD TOK ORD

YOY Change(%)

YOY Change(%)


CMP in Memory


CMP is Aligned with WFM Trends

Source: Linx, IC Knowledge, Intel

Trend driven by:• Increased # of interconnect and FEOL layers• RMG process• Multi-Patterning• New materials integration


Overall Processing & CMP Cost Per Wafer

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

ASIC 28nm ASIC 10nm DRAM 26nm DRAM 15nm 3DN 24L 3DN 96L

$ Cost / Wafer CMP Cost $ / Wafer

Source: ICKnowledge, Strategic Model


CMP Costs are In-line with Wafer Processing Costs

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

ASIC DRAM 3DN

Device Cost Change (%) CMP Cost Change (%)

Source: ICKnowledge, Strategic Model


CMP Intensity in Memory, 2020

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

ASIC 10nm DRAM 15nm 3DN 96L

# CMP Steps # Wafer Starts, 2020

29%

34%

37%

# CMP Operations

ASIC 10nm DRAM 15nm 3DN 96L


Conclusions


Conclusions

• Sustainable strong growth outlook anticipated for several years

• 3D structures and new materials will continue to drive semiconductor technology advancement at 1Xnm and beyond.

• 200mm and older wafer fab is expected to remain at high levels of capacity utilization over the next several years. Productivity will be a major driver

• Memory will account for a greater share of 300mm CMP spend going forward

“impact of advanced memory technologies on cmp industry”€¦ · 11/07/2018 · outlook •...

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