“Never leave that till tomorrow which you can do today.”

Ben Franklin

PAF 101Module 2, Lecture 1

Class Agenda

• Announcements• Community Service• Selecting a topic –Ex. 2.6• Quick Intro. to Ch. 3 • Exercise 3.1 • Fighting Procrastination • Assignment for Next Class

Lunch with Coplin•Monday and Wednesday from 11 to 11:30

•Email me to determine which day and meet me at 11 in 102 Maxwell

•We can talk about anything•We pay for our own lunches

Community Service Opportunity

Community ServicePolicies and Requirements

PAF 101Community Service Director

Eliza Buergenthalejbuerge@syr.edu

Community Service

• 5 hour requirement• Prospective community service

e-mail to your TA due 2/28• Final Community Service Form due

4/23• More info on the PAF 101 Website:

https://paf101.expressions.syr.edu/community-service/

Competition Points

Winners

LosersAs of 2/2/18

Group # Points

4 6

7 6

9 6

17 6

1 5

6 5

11 5

13 5

3 4

10 4

12 4

14 4

15 4

16 4

18 4

5 3

2 1

8 1

Introduction to Module Two

Exercises for Chapters 2-4

Due 2/23

One of Seven Topic Areas from Module 1

Not Too Specific

Introduction to Module Two

Chapter 2: Use the library (guest lecture on Monday)

Chapter 3: Find players to interview

Chapter 4: Design a survey on a societal problem or policy in a specified geographic area

Choose a Societal Problem & Location

•Exercise 2.6 requires you to select a societal problem WITHIN YOUR TOPIC

•Exercise 3.1 requires you to choose a local geographic area: Syracuse, Onondaga County, or your home town or county

#1 Rule in Defining a Societal Problem •Always start with societal condition that needs to be ameliorated as the problem.

•NEVER define a problem as some policy you don’t like

•Starting with the problem rather than the solution is the essence of ???

For Exercise 2.6: A Societal Problem is Not A Policy You Don’t Like

Gun Control Gun Related Crimes

Focus on Specific Problems for 2.6

• A problem is an undesirable societal condition that is at an unacceptable level

• Either too low (such as graduation rates) or too high (such as unemployment rates)

• Be sure to indicate geographic location

Problem Selection Ex. 2.6• Choose a specific societal problem within the one of the following topics:

• Crime• Education• Environment• Health• Housing• Jobs and Economic Development• Poverty

Crime

•Too many arrests for drug sales, theft in the City of Syracuse

•DWI/DUI arrest rate is too high

•Too many incidents of police brutality

Environment•Recycling levels are too low

•Air Pollution is too high

•Carbon footprint is too big

Education•High school graduation rates are too low

•Too many students fail state-mandated tests

•Students are late too frequently

Health

•Too many adolescent pregnancies

•STD rates are too high

•The nursing shortage is too great

•Too many people don’t have health care insurance

Housing •Too many vacant lots

•Not enough low income housing

•Too many mortgage defaults in the City of Syracuse

Jobs/Economic Development

•Loss of jobs is too high

•Not enough workers with the necessary skills

•Too many business bankruptcies

Poverty •Too many children go to sleep hungry

•Too many people live under the poverty line

•Too much welfare fraud

Focusing on a Societal Problem

•Very difficult because “to generalize is to be an idiot.” -Wm. Blake, 18th

century poet

•What’s wrong about this quote?

•Which leads to the two most important quotes of the course…

Quote #1

“Life is an aggregation problem.”

Dealing with “Life is an Aggregation Problem”

Canada Goose–a beautiful bird

versus a flying crap

machine

When you can take a 3 page paper and:

•Reduce it to 1 page•Reduce that to 3 paragraphs•Reduce that to 1 paragraph •Reduce that to 1 sentence, or in the case of POTUS, a tweet

You will understand that life is an aggregation problem.

Be Both Kinds of a Person Correctly decide when to be:

•A Tree Person

•A Forest Person

Life is an Aggregation Problem in PAF 101

•Your answers have to be not too general and not too specific

•How do you decide?

#2 Most Important Quote

“B.S. RULES”All statements are speculation for a purpose.Some statements are closer to the truth but we can never be sure.

This is reality; learn to deal with it.

Example: The Magna Carta

QUOTATION OF THE DAY

"The myth of Magna Carta lies at the whole origin of our perception of who we are as an

English-speaking people, freedom-loving people who've lived with a degree of liberty and under a rule of law for 800 years. It's a

load of tripe, of course. But it's a very useful myth."

NICHOLAS VINCENT, a professor at the University of East Anglia and author of a book on the document.

BS in Policy Discussions•Declaration of Independence•Cold War •Trickle Down Theory•Social Justice •Order, Freedom, Equality

BS and Truth •Truth is a goal; not a reality •Actions are reality •BS can lead to action•Action can lead to BS•The More Abstract the BS, the less it can be true

BS is the fertilizer of life • Good

• Can lead to good decision • It serves as play • It drives business-a.k.a. known as advertising • It drives do-gooders • Substitutes for warfare-a.k.a war of words

• Bad –too much:• Can lead to bad decisions• Pollutes the political atmosphere • Destroys the news media • Makes brown spots in lawns and stinks

BS is •BS is as essential to the human condition as air is to human life

•Actions are the beautiful and ugly flowers that grow out of BS

Reason for BS•Rationalizes decisions •Sales•Generates jobs for elites•Gets votes •People feel better about themselves •Generates culture

BS restores faith to its proper place

•With only speculation, actions can only be based on faith

•Speculation cannot eliminate uncertainty not matter how much theory, data and logic

Antidote to BS Excesses•Avoid groupthink •Avoid cognitive dissonance •Always admit that it is speculation •Use analysis rather than rhetoric •Be ????

Procrastination

What are the causes of procrastination ?

• Fear of failure • Fear of success • Priorities are a bitch • Thinks it is more efficient

• and …

Peer Pressure is EVIL

The Ultimate Vaccine

If your friends told you to stick your head in a

bucket of $#!+, would you?

Elysa B. Wolfe

Litigation Associate

Tulane University School of Law - Class of 1996Sports Law Certificate

Syracuse University, B.A. – Class of 1993Policy Studies and Political Science

elysabwolfe@gmail.com

42

Kelley A. Warner

• Senior Director, Client Experience, Fidelity Corporate Actions Solutions

• Syracuse University, B.A. in Policy Studies, Class of 1993

• Boston University, MSM, Class of 2007

• Boston University Metropolitan College, Guest Lecturer, Project Risk and Cost Management Conference, 2006

• Boston’s Future Leaders Class of 2014, Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce

• Member, Board of Directors, ALS Association of Massachusetts

Email: kwsu44@gmail.com

For Next Class

1. Read Chapter 2 for next class

2. Bring a copy of Module 2 to follow along with the librarian lecture

3. New seats