Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Centre of Excellence for Advanced Silicon Photovoltaics and Photonics

- supported by the Australian Research Council

“Renewable Energy And Its Potential”

Martin A. GreenUniversity of New South Wales

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

World Primary Energy Consumption

Use

1 day1 week

1 year

Yearly consumption= 12 billion tonnes of oil equivalent= 18 billion tonnes of coal equivalent

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Yearly Energy Use/Year versusOne Day’s Solar

Use

Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Sustainability Challenge

. tap into a small fraction (0.01%) of

incident solar to provide commercial

energy requirements

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Wind/Photovoltaics

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Carbon Fuel Electricity Prices/Sydney

SUPPLY COSTc/KWh 2003 PRICES

80

60

40

20

01910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Learning Curve100

4

2

10

64

2

110 100 1000

1981

Progress ratio 77.2%

2000

Global cumulative MW produced

6Parente et al.,Prog. in PV,Vol. 10, 2002,p. 555

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Installed Capacity

0

10

20

30

40

5019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Cap

acity

, GW

WindPhotovoltaics (x10)

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Wind: Turbine Size

1983: 55 kW (

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

First Generation Wafer/Ribbons

Strengths. reliable, durable, etc.Weaknesses. material intensive. < US$1/Wp unlikely. energy payback only 4 yrBUTzero energy if growth > 25%/yr(Lysen, PV in Europe)

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Second Generation Thin-Films

. low materials cost

. large manufacturing unit

. fully integrated modules

. aesthetics

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Thin Film Discriminators

. market acceptability (toxic?)

. stability, durability

. manufacturability

. efficiency/cost trade-off

. size of competitive factory

. investment risk

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Which Thin-Film?α-Si/µc-Si +materials, maturity

- stability, efficiency, cost?

CIS + efficiency potential- manufacturability? robustness? toxicity?

CdTe + manufacturability- toxicity, robustness?

Titania dye + simplicity, uniqueness- liquids, stability, efficiency? toxicity?

Poly-Si/glass + materials, robustness, manufacturability- demonstrated efficiency

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

My favourite (of course!)

0.0 .50 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

CIS

Manf A c-Si

Manf B c-Si

Manf C c-Si

Manf D mc-Si

CSG MkI

CSG MkII

CSG MkIII*

Combined Cycles for 20% Degradation

Metal

Resin

n+

Textured glass'Crater' 'Groove' 'Dimple'

Light In

p Siliconp+

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

“Dawn of a New Solar Era”First CSG factory, Germany, April, 2005

Eliminates wafer cost/availability constraints

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

II. Efficiency/cost

II

100

80

60

20

0 100 200 300 400 500

US$0.50/W

US$1.00/W

US$3.50/W

Cost, US$/m2

US$0.10/W US$0.20/W

Present limit

Thermodynamiclimit

40

I

Effic

ienc

y,%

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Efficiency Limits

Tc .

ES

EC

.

Q

S = Q/TA

SG > 0

TA

SS

SC

W

. .

.

.

.

.

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Third Generation

?. thin-film. high efficiency

(> single junction). abundant materials. non-toxic. stable, durable

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Percentage of World Electricity

20%

10%

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040

PV x 10

wind

PV

Source: European Wind and PV Associations. Greenpeace

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Actual vs Projected

0.1

1

10

100

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Ann

ual p

rodu

ctio

n, G

W

EPIA/ G'peace projection

Actual

1% milestone

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

Green Visions

. Energy efficiency promoted

. 1% electricity by wind by 2007

. 10% by 2020, 20% by 2032

. 1% electricity from solar by 2020

. 10% by 2032, over 25% by 2040

Centre of Excellence for Advanced Silicon Photovoltaics and Photonics - supported by the Australian Research CouncilWorld Primary Energy ConsumptionYearly Energy Use/Year versus One Day’s SolarSustainability ChallengeLearning CurveInstalled CapacityThin Film DiscriminatorsWhich Thin-Film?Percentage of World ElectricityActual vs Projected