“the future depends on what we do in the present.” — mahatma … · 2020. 6. 27. · domestic...
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“The future depends on what we do in the present.”
— Mahatma Gandhi
GMS_Leadership
www.gmsinc.net GMS Inc.
GMS,Inc.
Whilst the various recycling destinations remain far from fully open today, the anticipation
of subcontinent markets opening within the month / before June has once again motivated
Cash Buyers to take speculative positions and commit vessels at some firmer levels over the
recent weeks.
It is true that there have been some easing of restrictions in both India and Bangladesh,
however, there are still restrictions on vessels arriving both locations with foreign crew
onboard, in addition to domestic crew flying overseas for ‘as is’ take overs, as all
international flights in and out of the subcontinent markets are still grounded at present.
There may be further easing of restrictions in the coming week(s) on international tonnage,
however, for now, only those vessels that have received special exemptions and have
domestic crew on board are being allowed to beach in India and Bangladesh.
India is allowing ships with Indian crew to beach whilst anchoring and beaching permissions
are not being granted for vessels with international / foreign crew for the time being. The
same is true in Pakistan and Turkey as well.
In Bangladesh, foreign crew cannot disembark without getting special permissions from the
police and immigration departments and this is causing some confusion for those vessels that
have arrived locally and are waiting to beach for some time now.
There is a lingering anticipation that the markets may start to improve once the official
notification on reopening comes through, as Indian steel plate prices & sentiments have
started to firm this week on the back of Mr. Modi’s expansive stimulus package for the
economy, in addition to a recently announced ban on the export of steel scrap from UAE for a
period of 4 months.
For week 20 of 2020, GMS demo rankings / pricing for the week are as below.
Demo
Rank Location Sentiment
Dry Bulk
USD / LDT
Tankers
USD / LDT
Containers
USD / LDT
1 India Weak 300 / LDT 320 / LDT 330 / LDT
2 Bangladesh Weak 290 / LDT 310 / LDT 320 / LDT
3 Pakistan Weak 280 / LDT 300 / LDT 310 / LDT
4 Turkey Weak 160 / LDT 170 / LDT 170 / LDT
,l’ -+Ali / +N
Highlights:
• Speculative sales.
•Restrictions ease.
• Exemptions.
• Local crews.
• Improvement due?
• Prices low.
CONFUSION REIGNS!
May 15th, 2020
Volume 213, Issue 930
Week 20
“That it will never come again is what makes life so sweet.”
- Emily Dickinson
MARKET COMMENTARY
BANGLADESH
BANGLADESH
BANGLADESH
BANGLADESH
BANGLADESH
BANGLADESH
BANGLADESH
BANGLADESH
SPECIAL PERMISSIONS!
As cyclone Amphan closes in on Chattogram (expected to hit by Wednesday of this
week), special permissions have been granted for the beaching of a handful of vessels
that had arrived Chattogram anchorage some time ago. These units have
unfortunately missed their canceling dates & subsequently faced the new (lower)
market realities and the Owners can finally put an end to the saga, having idled
outside for over a month now.
Notwithstanding, the repatriation of foreign crews still cannot completed, given that
all flights out of Bangladesh will remain grounded until May 30th at the very least
and many of those crew will have to undergo a mandatory 14 day quarantine on
board the vessels after beaching, despite the waiting time already incurred since
arrival of the units in territorial waters.
It seems clear from some of the recently concluded deals intended for a Bangladesh
redelivery that prices have lost almost USD 100/LDT and are settling in around the
low 300s/LDT (and below) for any new vessels that may be discussed in the coming
weeks.
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NO MARKET SALES REPORTED
GMS Weekly
Lower realities.
Handful of beachings.
INDIA
INDIA
INDIA
INDIA
INDIA
INDIA
INDIA
INDIA
Steel surge.
RAYS OF HOPE!
Steel plate prices have surged by about USD 50/Ton this week in India, off the back of
an anticipated stimulus package for the economy set to be implemented by Mr. Modi
in response to the ongoing coronavirus crisis.
Further good news (for both India and Pakistan) saw the UAE announce measures to
ban the export of scrap steel for about 4 months (thereby not undercutting local steel
inventories in those countries) and this saw the price of local melting scrap jump by
nearly USD 20/LDT.
There is still a ban on foreign vessels arriving and beaching in India as the government
looks to slowly curb some of the harsh lockdown restrictions and only those vessels
with Indian crew on board are allowed to beach at present, although these restrictions
look set to be eased in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, much of the workforce from Alang has already travelled back to their
home towns, leaving only about 20% – 30% of the labor force at local yards. As such,
recycling activity in Alang has reduced tremendously for the time being.
NO MARKET SALES REPORTED
Ban on foreign vessels.
Page 3 of 8 GMS Weekly
GMS Weekly
GEARING UP!
Like the other subcontinent recycling destinations, only vessels with Pakistani crew on
board are currently allowed to beach in Gadani, as the lockdown measures continue
throughout the country and all incoming and outgoing flights remain grounded.
However, signs of market optimism and a return to business are emerging, with some
more enquiries coming through over the recent week. Moreover, in further positive
news, the state bank has cut interest rates to 8% (reaching a 19 month low), subsequently
encouraging local Recyclers to pick up a unit or two. It is anticipated that the cut in
interest rates will reduce the debt burden by PKR 330 billion (about USD 2.065 billion).
Adding to local encouragement has been the recent announcement on the ban of steel
exports from the UAE, which is likely to spike the demand for ship’s steel in the coming
week(s), given the shortage of raw materials from imports.
PAKISTAN
INDIA
INDIA
INDIA
INDIA
INDIA
INDIA
INDIA
Buyers ready to acquire
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NO MARKET SALES REPORTED
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NO MARKET SALES REPORTED
Interest rates cut.
Local crews only.
GMS Weekly
No activity until June.
NO MARKET SALES REPORTED
STUMBLING!
Local steel plate prices remain lingering between USD 230 – USD 235/Ton, while the
Turkish Lira fell from TRY 7.05 down to TRY 6.8X as the week ended. The weakened
levels for ships too remained the same as last week, with no news of fresh fixtures being
reported locally.
Notwithstanding local fixtures, news of several units being proposed for deliveries June
(and beyond) has come forth, as local players anticipate that the Turkish market will
open post Ramadan and Covid-19 restrictions are eased in early June.
It is expected that Turkey will remain closed until May 20th due to corona measures and a
further shutdown due to Ramadan holidays is expected between May 23rd – May 26th.
As such, a really quiet month is expected for the Turkish market.
TURKEY
Fundamentals weaken.
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INDIA BANK HOLIDAYS BEACHING TIDES
May 07 – Buddha Purnima
May 24 - Eid-ul-Fitr
May 05 – May 12
May 21 – May 28
BANGLADESH BANK HOLIDAYS BEACHING TIDES
May 06 – Buddha Purnima
May 21 – Shab-e-Qadar
May 22 – Jamatul Wida
May 24 – May 26 – Eid-ul-Fitr
May 07 – May 10
May 23 – May 26
IMPORTANT BANK HOLIDAYS CHINA PAKISTAN TURKEY
May 01 – May 05 – Labor Day
May 07 – Buddha Purnima
May 25 – May 27 – Eid-ul-Fitr
May 23 – May 26 - Ramadan
IMPORTANT DATES
Miscellaneous i
Unusual death: Aeschylus, a Greek tragedy playwright, was killed in 455 BC when an eagle, mistaking his bald
head for a convenient rock, dropped a tortoise on it. According to Pliny, Aeschylus was spending a lot of time in
the open to avoid a prophecy that he would be killed by a falling object.
In Germany, you are allowed to drive your car naked if mood takes you that way, but you may not get out of it
naked.
In India, kissing in public is not allowed.
It was forbidden to buy or sell condoms in Ireland up to the 1990s.
A stamp that you lick gives you a 0.1 calorie.
Bruce Lee moved with such speed in fights they had to slow down the movie so people could see his moves.
If you live in Switzerland in an apartment building, you mustn’t flush your toilet after 10 pm; if you’re a man,
you also may not pee standing up after 10 pm – the tinkle is just too annoying for the neighbors.
If you drink and drive in Italy and you reach over a certain limit of alcohol in your blood, you won’t lose just
your driver’s license and freedom, you’ll say good bye to your car, too, which will be seized by the state.
In Mexico escapees are not charged for anything and no extra time is added to their prison sentence.
Page 6 of 8
Prices indicated above are as reported in the market and are not necessarily accurate. This information is provided without prejudice and is given in
good faith and without any guarantees whatsoever. While every care has been taken in the preparation of this report, no liability can be accepted for
any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any person relying on the information contained herein. Opinions expressed herein may be deemed
subjective and arbitrary. This WEEKLY is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or
privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of this information by persons or entities other than the intended
recipient is prohibited.
FUN FACTS
ALANG - Port Position as of May 15, 2020
No. VESSEL NAME LDT TYPE STATUS
1 Kweilin 9,546 General Cargo Beached May 02
2 Lan Wan 3,244 Oil Tanker Beached May 07
3 Petrojarl Cidade De Rio Das Ostras (Under Tow) 13,611 FSPO Beached May 09
Total Tonnage 26,401
CHATTOGRAM - Port Position as of May 15, 2020
No. VESSEL NAME LDT TYPE STATUS
1 Berge Aoraki 21,285 Bulk Carrier Arrived March 23
2 Cape Stefanie 21,221 Bulk Carrier Arrived March 19
3 Crateus 9,135 Bulk Carrier Arrived March 31
4 FuXing 6,551 Bulk Carrier Beached May 15
5 Star of Luck 6,847 Container Arrived March 23
6 Stellar Rio 46,226 Bulk Ore Carrier Arrived March 20
7 Usolie 10,243 Bulk Carrier Arrived March 23
8 Yu Hua 7,636 Bulk Carrier Arrived March 21
Total Tonnage 129,144
GADANI - Port Position as of May 15, 2020
No. VESSEL NAME LDT TYPE STATUS
No new vessels reported.
Total Tonnage -
WHILE EXTREME CARE HAS BEEN TAKEN IN THE PREPARATION OF THIS REPORT, NO LIABILITY CAN BE ACCEPTED FOR ANY LOSS INCURRED IN ANY WAY WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON RELYING ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.
Page 7 of 8
GMS Port Report
www.gmsinc.net GMS_Leadership GMS, Inc. [email protected]
Athens, Greece Tel: +30.210.899.0669 Bhavnagar, India Tel: +91.278.300.5253
Cumberland, USA Tel: +1.301.759.9240 Dubai, UAE Tel: +971.4.423.0720
Hamburg, Germany Tel: +49.40. 3197.9963 New York, USA: +1.240.505.9716
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Singapore Tel: +65.6823.8037 Tokyo, Japan Tel: +81.3.5453.6311
DATEINDIA STEEL
PRICES USD/T
INDIA STEEL
PRICES
PAKISTAN STEEL
PRICES USD/T
PAKISTAN
STEEL PRICES
BANGLADESH STEEL
PRICES USD/T
BANGLADESH
STEEL PRICES
CHINA STEEL
PRICES USD/T
5/9/2020 280.61 21,200.00 NA NO SALES 401.17 34,300.00 324.91
5/10/2020 280.61 21,200.00 NA NO SALES 374.27 32,000.00 324.91
5/11/2020 282.55 21,400.00 NA NO SALES 374.27 32,000.00 325.00
5/12/2020 322.28 24,300.00 NA NO SALES 374.27 32,000.00 324.31
5/13/2020 323.31 24,400.00 NA NO SALES 374.27 32,000.00 332.98
5/14/2020 325.96 24,600.00 NA NO SALES 374.27 32,000.00 332.64
5/15/2020 330.99 25,000.00 NA NO SALES 374.27 32,000.00 331.28
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Steel Plate Prices