apex 2005 annual conference disney’s boardwalk inn, florida

APEx 2005 Annual ConferenceDisneys BoardWalk Inn, FloridaCO 2

Torger LienPresident & CEO, Nord Pool ASA

Kyoto protokollETS and EUA quota system

EUs Kyoto obligationKyoto gap

Ways to close the Kyoto gapNon-ETS measures (domestic)Own abatementETSResidual:Government purchasesDomestic policies & measures: Taxes Financial support command-and-control Negotiated agreements Own abatementImports: EU allowances (EUAs) Credits from developing countries (CERs) Credits from Russia/Ukraine ((ERUs) Kyoto units Assigned amount units Governments decide how to share the burden. Ultimately Kyoto commitment rests with governments

Allocation to individual installations

Gap ETS sector 2005-2007EU 15605040203010EU 1O (New)CDMBaU EU 25Reductions ETS sectorWeatherEconomical growthEnergy prices Mil ton CO2

Gap ETS sector 2008-2012EU 2525020015050100Reductions ETS sectorDemandImport of creditsImport of credits:CDM/JI or ETS-sector reductions Competition over CDM/JI credits: Public fund, buyers outside EuropeSupply

Marginalcost powergeneration -Continental EuropeCoalprice$64/tonCarbon price16/tonGas price$5.75/mmbtuCarbon price16/tonCoalGas

Coalprice, gasprice & carbonprice30252010155Carbon price (/tonn)Gasprice/CoalpriceUKMay 2005E ContinentMay 2004E ContinentMay 2005

Fuelcost, gas & coal

Trading EU Allowances at Nord Pool

To start in 2005 Forward contracts physical deliveredTicker code: EUA (1 EUA = 1 tCO2)Min. lot: 1000 EUAStarting with three contracts:EUADEC-05 (last trading day 1st Thursday in December 2005)EUADEC-06 (last trading day 1st Thursday in December 2006)EUADEC-07 (last trading day 1st Thursday in December 2007)Closing price set every dayUse existing infrastructure; PowerCLICK ETS, Clearing Desk Application, SECUR clearing system etc

Link to national registries for transition of EUA

EUA spot contract

Chart1

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7.25

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9.45

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9.68

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9.25

9.71

10.85

10.35

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11.68

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13.8

13.65

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14

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17.55

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15.65

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1716.85

17.417.45

17.0317.15

16.616.35

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16.516.5

16.7516.85

16.816.95

16.816.75

16.3516.75

16.3516.65

16.3516.75

16.3517.05

17.3517.05

17.6517.3

18.4518.55

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18.6518.95

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18.5518.85

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2220.65

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20.2520.4

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2020.05

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2222

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22.7522.8

22.522.4

EUADEC-05

Prices: CFI-DEC05

EUR/ tCO2

EUA Prices

Graphics&results

Graphics & results1000 tCO2MarketshareCorr otc/np

NoPrices:Volum tradedAccumulated traded volumeMarketMarketshareSUM NP3,91512.9 %0.998

DaysDateEUA05 OTCEUADEC-05CFI-DEC05Spot EEXOTCNP ex otcECX ex EFPEEXSUMOTCNP ex otcECX ex EFPEEXSUMNP OTCECX EFPNP tradeNP ClearingSUM OTC30,342

11/31/057.1865565576557,655

22/1/057.1337037080258,025

32/2/057.1711511581408,140

42/3/057.2122522583658,365

52/4/057.20505084158,415

62/7/057.20707084858,485

72/8/057.1930530587908,790

82/9/057.1612512589158,915

92/10/057.15505089658,965

102/11/057.287.25515455609480459,52508.0 %8.0 %

112/14/057.327.3835503559835459,88000.0 %0.0 %

122/15/057.417.353450345101804510,22500.0 %0.0 %

132/16/057.717.7045010460106305510,68502.2 %2.2 %

142/17/057.977.9281030840114408511,52503.6 %3.6 %

152/18/058.098.083400340117808511,86500.0 %0.0 %

162/21/058.278.20490405301227012512,39507.5 %7.5 %

172/22/058.788.741,015401,0551328516513,45003.8 %3.8 %

182/23/058.678.70385304151367019513,86507.2 %7.2 %

192/24/059.088.988101169261448031114,791012.5 %12.5 %

202/25/059.509.45770608301525037115,62107.2 %7.2 %

212/28/059.509.5525002501550037115,87100.0 %0.0 %8,216

223/1/059.509.50550551555537115,92600.0 %0.0 %

233/2/059.509.50300301558537115,95600.0 %0.0 %

243/3/059.739.6854005401612537116,49600.0 %0.0 %

253/4/059.559.6524502451637037116,74100.0 %0.0 %

263/7/059.439.258751301,0051724550117,746012.9 %12.9 %

273/8/0510.089.711,280701,3501852557119,09605.2 %5.2 %

283/9/0510.9410.8510.401,6651020.01,6952019058120.020,79100.6 %0.6 %

293/10/0511.0010.3511.121,4151355.01,5552160571625.022,34608.7 %8.7 %

303/11/0510.5010.7011.127051200.08252231083625.023,171014.5 %14.5 %

313/14/0510.4810.4511.125000.0502236083625.023,22100.0 %0.0 %

323/15/0510.7510.7010.604403020.04902280086645.023,71106.1 %6.1 %

333/16/0510.9510.9010.765371210.05592333787855.024,27002.1 %2.1 %

343/17/0511.2411.1010.76525800.06052386295855.024,8755513.2 %22.3 %

353/18/0511.7911.6811.456352020.06752449797875.025,550253.0 %6.7 %

363/21/0513.3813.2513.451,0593510.01,104255561,01385.026,654903.2 %11.3 %

373/22/0513.8413.8014.322,32011814.02,452278761,13199.029,10604.8 %4.8 %

383/23/0513.4513.6514.32665550.0720285411,18699.029,826107.6 %9.0 %

393/24/0513.7513.6514.3250000.0500290411,18699.030,32600.0 %0.0 %

403/29/0513.9314.0013.45250205.0275292911,206104.030,60107.3 %7.3 %

413/30/0514.1014.0013.45670200.0690299611,226104.031,29102.9 %2.9 %

423/31/0514.3714.2014.25593305.0628305541,256109.031,91904.8 %4.8 %16,048

434/1/0515.7015.5014.701,235550.11,290317891,311109.133,20904.3 %4.3 %

444/4/0517.0017.5516.951,1602014.21,194329491,331123.334,40301.7 %1.7 %

454/5/0515.9016.0316.40585800.1665335341,411123.435,068012.0 %12.0 %

464/6/0515.1515.3014.65890455.0940344241,456128.436,00804.8 %4.8 %

474/7/0515.3815.5015.05735960.1831351591,552128.536,8401011.6 %12.8 %

484/8/0514.2814.2214.20735550.1790358941,607128.637,630107.0 %8.2 %

494/11/0515.0514.2213.50580280.1608364741,635128.738,23804.6 %4.6 %

504/12/0515.5515.6515.50555504.7610370291,685133.438,847258.2 %12.3 %

514/13/0515.7515.6515.1550505.0510375341,685138.439,35700.0 %0.0 %

524/14/0515.7315.9715.74665204.9690381991,705143.340,047352.9 %8.0 %

534/15/0516.0015.8315.62700300.1730388991,735143.440,777204.1 %6.8 %

544/18/0516.0315.9015.65250280.1278391491,763143.541,056510.1 %11.9 %

554/19/0516.8516.8316.351,1701100.11,280403191,873143.642,33608.6 %8.6 %

564/20/0517.8017.6517.701,000720.11,072413191,945143.743,40806.7 %6.7 %

574/21/0517.1817.0017.505001060.1606418192,051143.844,014017.5 %17.5 %

584/22/0516.9017.0016.8516.905051801080.1793423242,231108143.944,807110022.7 %36.6 %

594/25/0517.4417.4017.4516.663851570.1407427092,246115144.045,214003.7 %3.7 %

604/26/0517.1217.0317.1516.814757580.2558431842,321123144.245,772105013.4 %15.2 %

614/27/0516.3516.6016.3516.238001421120.11,054439842,463235144.346,82620013.5 %15.4 %

624/28/0515.9316.1015.9515.9058029450.1654445642,492280144.447,4800204.4 %4.4 %

634/29/0516.1016.2516.4016.00285108200.1413448492,600300144.547,8940026.1 %26.1 %15,975

645/2/0515.4316.2516.4016.15180000.1180450292,600300144.648,074000.0 %0.0 %

655/3/0516.0816.0516.4016.002959500.1390453242,695300144.748,46455024.4 %38.5 %

665/4/0516.0816.0616.1015.85435510.1441457592,700301144.848,9052001.1 %5.7 %

675/5/0516.4316.0616.5015.85130010.0131458892,700302144.849,0360200.0 %0.0 %

685/6/0516.4816.5016.5016.052603500.1295461492,735302144.949,3310011.9 %11.9 %

695/9/0516.8416.7516.8516.0530560250.0390464542,795327144.949,7210015.4 %15.4 %

705/10/0516.9316.8016.9517.0538530411.3457468392,825368146.250,17825606.6 %12.0 %

715/11/0516.7316.8016.7516.05160050.1165469992,825373146.350,3432500.0 %15.1 %

725/12/0516.4016.3516.7516.0026525250.4315472642,850398146.750,6594007