apimec belo horizonte - vale 1t15 2t15 3t15 4t15 1t16 2t16-51% 1 considers: [cash cost + royalties +...
TRANSCRIPT
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Apimec – Belo Horizonte
Rogério Nogueira
Vale S.A.
August 09, 2016
1
Dis
clai
mer“This presentation may include statements that
present Vale's expectations about future events or results. All statements, when based upon expectations about the future and not on historical facts, involve various risks and uncertainties. Vale cannot guarantee that such statements will prove correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors related to the following: (a) the countries where we operate, especially Brazil and Canada; (b) the global economy; (c) the capital markets; (d) the mining and metals prices and their dependence on global industrial production, which is cyclical by nature; and (e) global competition in the markets in which Vale operates. To obtain further information on factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and the French Autoritédes Marchés Financiers (AMF), and in particular the factors discussed under “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” in Vale’s annual report on Form 20-F.”
2
Agen
da
1. Market dynamics
2. Impact on Vale’s performance
3. Samarco
4. Paving the future
3
Market dynamics
4
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
4-Jan 4-Feb 4-Mar 4-Apr 4-May 4-Jun 4-Jul
40.5%
29.6%
Percentual price increase from
Jan 4, 2016 to July 29, 2016
Commodities prices increased year to date reflecting a more positive sentiment, mainly in China
Source: Bloomberg.
US$/ton
Iron Ore
Nickel Copper
Metallurgical Coal
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
4-Jan 4-Feb 4-Mar 4-Apr 4-May 4-Jun 4-Jul
7500
8200
8900
9600
10300
11000
4-Jan 4-Feb 4-Mar 4-Apr 4-May 4-Jun 4-Jul
22.7%
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
4-Jan 4-Feb 4-Mar 4-Apr 4-May 4-Jun 4-Jul
4.5%
5
The positive sentiment is significantly based on the credit expansion in China with a record of bonds’ issuance by the Chinese government
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Local government bond
Corporate bond
Off-balance sheet credit
RMB & FX loans
Overall credit
% yoy 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted
Source: UBS, CEIC.
6
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total
Infrastructure
Real estate
Manufacturing
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Floor spacesold
Floor spacestarted
Source: UBS, CEIC.
Real estate marketFixed Asset Investment (FAI)
% growth y/y, 3 months moving average % growth y/y, 3 months moving average
Resulting in a greater incentive in fixed asset investment in China, particularly in infrastructure and real state market
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1 Seaborne market, including pellets.
Source: World Steel Association and Vale.
804 796 801 804 807 810
819 816 836 855 878 899
1,623 1,612 1,637 1,659 1,685 1,709
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ex-China crude steel production
Chinese crude steel production
201157
149135 122 1201,610 1,629
1,6831,739 1,750 1,752
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Chinese domestic
Seaborne market of iron ore
Seaborne market1 iron ore supply
In this context, the expectations for Chinese steel production improved, potentially absorbing additional iron ore supply
Crude steel production
Mt Mt
8
17
114
222
14799
-93
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
1,991 1,981 1,909
2014 2015 2016E
-4%-1%
The nickel market will record a potential deficit¹ in 2016 with lower
global nickel supply
The nickel supply should decrease 4% in 2016, primarily because of the reduction of NPI in China and
because of the increase of uncertainty regarding the nickel ore export industry in the Philippines, which is the
main supplier of nickel to the NPI production.
World Nickel Supply
Kt
Supply and Demand Balance1
Kt
1 Supply and demand balance excluding the inventories in the LME and SHFE.
Source: Market analysts (CRU Q3 Outlook; Wood Mackenzie July Short Term Outlook, Wood Mackenzie Q2 Long Term Outlook).
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Due to favorable arbitrage, inventories have migrated
towards Shanghai Exchange, with total inventories
within the historical range
We expect a surplus in the copper market in 2016,
with a tight market in the following years
In 2016, we expect a surplus in the copper market, with a tight
market in the following years
Source: CRU Copper Outlook Quarterly Report 2Q16, metalprices.com
Kt Kt
-225
38
-553
-198-31
322 383328
110
-277
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
LME
Comex
Shanghai
Global balance in refined copper World Copper inventories in Exchanges
10
Impact on Vale’s
performance
11
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016²
Iron Ore
Metallurgical Coal
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 20102016²
Copper Nickel
1 Nominal prices for 2015 and 2016 and real prices for the previous years.2 Average until July 29th, 2016.
Source: Bloomberg, World Bank, Wood Mackenzie and CRU.
Despite recent prices increases, commodities’ prices are returning
to a historical level
US$/t
Base Metals1 Bulk materials1
12
-33%
6,857
4,521
3,547
1,861
2012 2013 2014 2015
-73%
22,661
20,52021,207
16,984
2012 2013 2014 2015
3
4
Our focus and managerial discipline allowed us a substantial
reduction in costs and expenses, despite an increase in volumes
Costs¹
US$ million
Expenses1,2
US$ million
1 Net of depreciation and amortization.2 Includes SG&A, R&D, Pre-operating and stoppage and other expenses. Does not include gain/loss on sale of assets.3 Positive impact of US$ 244 million from the goldstream transaction on the 1Q13.4 Positive impacts of US$ 230 million from the goldstream transaction on the 1Q15 and US$ 331 million of Asset Retirement
Obligations - ARO).
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3.8
4.9 5.0
2013 2014 2015
299.8319.2 333.4
2013 2014 2015
Nickel Copper3
260275
291
2013 2014 2015
+11.8%
+11.2%
370 380424
2013 2014 2015
+14.5%
30.0%
Kt Kt
Iron Ore1,2 Coal (Moatize)
Mt Mt
With the start-up of new projects and an increase in productivity,
we have increased production volumes in different commodities
1 Includes iron ore fines, lump, ROM and iron ore feed for Vale’s pellets plants.2 Excludes Samarco’s attributable production.3 Includes Lubambe’s attributable production. 2013 figure include Tres Valles production.
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4.1
3.0
2.21.6
2.21.9
1.42.0
2.4
102.6
90.2
74.3
62.458.4 54.9
46.7 48.355.7
2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T16 2T16
US$ billion, quarterly EBITDA
1 Adjusted EBITDA excludes gains and/or losses on sales of assets and non-recurring expenses and includes dividends received from
non-consolidated affiliates.
2014 2015
EBITDA
41.4 33.1 24.1 25.7 31.8 28.8 23.6 35.1 36.0
Despite seasonally lower sales volumes, recent price hikes and
continuous cost discipline boosted Vale’s adjusted EBITDA1 in 2Q16
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%)
Platts IODEX Iron Ore Price
Average (US$/t)
15
57.6
39.336.9
32.630.9
28.0 28.5
4T14 1T15 2T15 3T15 4T15 1T16 2T16
-51%
1 Considers: [Cash cost + Royalties + freight + distribution + expenses(SG&A + R&D + pre-operating and stoppage expenses) +
moisture, adjusted for quality and pellets premiums] / [iron ore sales volume (ex ROM)].
US$/t
Iron ore and pellets EBITDA breakeven on a landed in China basis1
decreased in a consistent way
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We have been increasing our discipline in capital allocation with
significant reduction in capital expenditures
1 Considers exchange rate of BRL/USD 3.50 - 3.80.
Capex, US$ billion
11.7 11.6
9.6
7.9
5.5
4.6 4.6
4.6
4.1
2.9
16.3 16.2
14.2
12.0
8.4
5.5 – 6.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E¹
Sustaining
Growth Projects
17
8.16.5
11.6
7.9
0.60.2
Original Budget Total Until 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Logistics
Mine and plant
Mine, plant and logistics
1.6
2.6
9.414.4
19.7
Our biggest growth project – the S11D – will complete most of its
investment in the next 2 years
1 Includes project expenses, that are not capitalized, of US$ 289 million accumulated until 2015, US$ 84 million in2016, US$ 52 million
in 2017, US$ 15 million in 2018 and US$ 5 million in 2019.
US$ billion1
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The S11D project reached significant progress in the mine, plant
and railway until now
S11D Plant – Screening, crushing and patios Status June 2016
• Combined physical progress of 79%
− 90% of physical progress at the
mine site
− 70% of physical progress at
logistic sites
− 92% of physical progress at the
railway spur
• Cold commissioning on the mine site
initiated
• Duplication of the railway with 54%
physical progress and 243 Km
delivered
• Railway spur connection to EFC
Railway concluded
S11D Logistics – Port offshore
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The project will function with dry processing and will not need tailings dams
Screening Process Process’ Highlights
• High Fe content and highly homogenous
ore body allows the dry processing,
without any concentration process
• 18,000 MWh of electricity saved every
year (equivalent to a 20,000 inhabitants’
city)
• Lower environmental impact (lower water
consumption and no need for tailings
dams)
• Simpler process reducing capital
investment and sustaining investment,
mainly on tailings dams
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26,509
27,661 27,508
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Our debt slightly decreased in 2Q16
Gross Debt
US$ million
Net Debt
Cash position
June 30, 2016
4,306
29,77331,470 31,814
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
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Fixed rate69%
Floating rate31%
US$90%
Other currencies
10%
0.53.2
4.02.9
20.5
31.1
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020onwards
Grossdebt
US$ billion
In parallel, we continue to manage our current debt profile
Debt amortization schedule¹ Debt profile, after currencies hedge
1 As of June 30th, 2016.2 Does not include accrued interest.
75% of debt maturities after 2019
2
22
Samarco
23
Basic Financial
Structure
Operationalization
of the agreement
Reparatory and
Compensatory
Programs
The agreement with the Brazilian authorities will allow the acceleration
of reparatory programs, complementing the actions already iniciated
Secondary
responsability of
shareholders
• R$ 4.4 bi in the first three years (2016-2018) to guarantee the progress of reparatory
and compensatory programs while projects are being detailed
• R$ 0.8 – 1.6 bi per year between 2019 and 2021, the value will be defined based on
the prioritization of each program’s projects
• R$ 240 million per year for 15 years (starting on the signature of the agreement) to
the execution of compensatory projects
• Payment of R$500 million to finance sanitation initiatives between 2016 – 2018
• Establishment of a Foundation that will develop and execute environmental and
socio-economic programs
• The Foundation will be governed by a seven member Board, appointed by Samarco,
BHP, Vale and the Brazilian Authorities and supported by advisory panels
• Restoration of the environment and the social conditions of the affected areas
• Compensation where reparation is not possible, for example:
– Basic sanitation project for the affected areas
– Reconstruction of Bento Rodrigues and Paracatu de Baixo
• In case Samarco does not meet its funding obligations with the Foundation, both Vale
and BHP will provide funds to the Foundation in proportion to their current
shareholding stakes in Samarco (50%)
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Impact on Vale’s
financial results
Resumption of
Samarco’s
operations
Environmental
licensing process
The uncertanties on the potential resumption of Samarco’s
operations had an impact on Vale’s financial results
1 State Department for Environmental and Sustainable Development of Minas Gerais.2 Equivalent to the present value of its estimated secondary responsibility under the Agreement.
• Samarco filed on June 23, 2016 the Environmental Impact Study and the Environment
Impact Report (EIA / RIMA) in the SEMAD1, as part of the licensing process for the
use of exhausted pits for tailings disposal
• Vale provisioned R$ 3.7 billion2 in its interim financial statements as of June 30, 2016
• Vale expects to contribute about US$ 150 million to the Foundation in 2H16, with this
amount offset against the abovementioned R$ 3.7 billion provision
• Vale intends to make available, in addition, short-term facilities of up to US$ 100
million to Samarco to support its operations
• Nonetheless, Samarco and its shareholders still expect Samarco to generate a
significant portion of the funds required to meet its obligations as per the Agreement
• Samarco cannot currently make a reliable estimation of how and when its operations
will be resumed, given the current status of the licensing process
• Samarco’s current assessment is that the probability of resuming operations in 2016 is
highly unlikely
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Paving the future
26
2016 and 2017 will be years for optimizing of our business with
the continuous structural reduction of cost and expenses
Our main priority is to strengthen our balance sheet together
with the increase in our Free Cash Flow
1
2
From the strategic and financial point of view, we are preparing
ourselves to face the current uncertainties of our industry
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1
2
Source: Vale’s internal data.
22 mines in 4
production
systems
3 railways and 4
ports in Brazil
12 pelletizing
plants (Brazil
and Oman)
2 DCs and 5
blending ports
In iron ore, our integrated supply chain offers operational flexibility to maximize margins
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1
2
• Reduction of losses in New
Caledonia
• Optimization of operational flows
and progress in Long Harbour’s
ramp-up, with further reduction
of costs and expenses in the
North Atlantic
• Potential expansion steps
already identified in the
operations in Indonesia,
leveraging the resource base
and the existing brownfield
opportunities
In nickel, business in which we are the world’s largest producer, our portfolio will be further optimized
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1
2
• Completion of the ramp-up of Salobo tapping into a new rich
resource base
• Optimization of copper concentrate production in North Atlantic
operations with revision of our production flowsheet
• The late cycle of the commodity balances Vale’s business
portfolio
• Start-up of the Patrocínio phosphate rock project by 2017 will
generate an additional estimated EBITDA of US$ 80-90
million
• Ramp-up of the Nacala Logistics Corridor will increase our
competitiveness in the coal business, reducing around 60% of
COGS when compared to 2015
• Operational improvements in Mozambique are paving the way
for better results in our coal business
Copper
Coal
Fertilizers
In copper, coal and fertilizers we will improve our competitive position in the near future
30
2
1
• Our discipline in capital allocation will enable a significant
CAPEX reduction from 2015 to 2016
• The portfolio simplification in the range of US$ 4 to 5 billion will
help us improve our cash flow and reduce our leverage
• The execution of the ongoing initiatives will allow a solid cash
generation at any price scenario
Our main priority is to strengthen our balance sheet together with the increase in our Free Cash Flow
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Evaluation of additional transactions,
aiming at reducing net debt by US$ 10
billion
• Coal JV
• Precious metals streaming
• 7 VLOCs
• Energy assets
• Definition of the future assets portfolio
• Assessment of the value of potential
transactions
• Estimate of the potential debt
reduction associated with potential
transactions
2016
2016 - 2017Asset portfolio simplification,
totaling US$ 4 – 5 bilhões
2
1
Potential divestments and strategic transactions will help balance
free cash flow and strengthen the balance sheet
32
We will be competitive, independently of prices
Strong balance sheet
World-class
assets
Lowcapex
• Assets well positioned in the cost
curve
• Capital allocation discipline with
lower sustaining capex
requirements
• Low leverage, with long debt
maturity
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