APNIC

Depletion of the IPv4 free address pool – IPv6 deployment

The day after!!

8 August 2008Queenstown, New Zealand

In conjunction with APAN

Cecil Goldstein, Training Manager

Acknowledgements

This presentation includes material and information from Geoff Huston (APNIC Chief Scientist)

IPv4 countdown

http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html

Let us imagine that today is the day after!!!

22 December 2011

And...you need IP address space

What happens??

What will the Internet look like ?

What will you do?

Well, that will depend on what happens between now and

22 Dec 2011

• So let us consider then where we are NOW and how we may move to THEN…….

IP Addresses – what makes the internetThe Internet

IPv4 \IPv6

Allocation

Allocation

Assignment

end user

* In some cases via an NIR such as KRNIC

*

The address infrastructure today

2004:

Number Resource Organization

What is APNIC?

• Regional Internet Registry (RIR) for the Asia Pacific region

• Responsible for distributing Internet resources throughout the AP region

• Industry self-regulatory body• Consensus-based, open, and transparent

decision-making and policy development• Meetings and mailing lists• Open to anyone

– http://www.apnic.net/meetings/23/index.html– http://www.apnic.net/community/lists/index.html

RIR policy development process

OPEN

TRANSPARENT‘BOTTOM UP’

Anyone can participate

All decisions and policies documented and freely available to anyone

Internet community proposes and approves policy

Need

DiscussEvaluate

Implement Consensus

Global policy coordination

NROAPNIC

ARIN

RIPE NCC

LACNIC

AfriNIC

ASO ICANN

The main function of ASO:

• ASO receives global policies and policy process details from the NRO• ASO forwards global policies and policy process details to ICANN board

APNIC address policy

[prop-050] IPv4 address transfers

[prop-055] Global policy for the allocation of the remaining IPv4 address space

[prop-062] Use of final /8

[prop-063] Reducing timeframe of IPv4 allocations from twelve to six months

[prop-066] Ensuring efficient use of historical IPv4 resources

Policy proposals for APNIC 26

The growth of the Internet and IPv4 unallocated address space exhaustion

IPv4 Address Pool – June 2005

25%available

source: http://potaroo.net

Central Registry

RIPE NCC

AfriNICARINLACNIC

APNIC

Other

IPv4 IANA address pool – March 2008

16%available

source: http://potaroo.net

Central Registry

RIPE NCC

AfriNICARIN

LACNIC

APNIC

Other

18

Projected lifetime of remaining IPv4 addresses

Current free pool

41 x /8

IANA pool depletition:

1st Half of 2011

RIRs pool depletion:

2nd half of 2011

IPv4 address space issued - RIRs to customersFirst quarter (to March ) 2008

19

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

(First Quarter 2008)

/8s

IPv4 address consumption prediction

• Assumptions– Tomorrow is a lot like today– Trends visible in the recent past continue into

the future

• This model assumes that there will be:– no panic– no change in policies– no change in the underlying demand dynamics– no rationing– no withholding or hoarding!

• No really! Ref: IPv4 unallocated address space exhaustion by Geoff Huston, Sept 2007

So what will happen after the exhaustion?

• The Internet will not stop but its growth will be impacted

• Who will be impacted?– ISPs

• Sustaining their business models will become more difficult unless you have huge IPv4 address blocks

– End users• Cost of access to the Internet will increase

Some possible scenarios

• What will happen after the IPv4 unallocated address space exhaustion?– Persist in IPv4 networks using more NATs– Address markets emerging for IPv4– Routing fragmentation– IPv6 deployment/ transition

Ref: IPv4 unallocated address space exhaustion by Geoff Huston, Sept 2007

Address market ?

IPv6 deployment

Issues and concerns

IPv6 current deployment status

• Not many cases of production networks– Not many business cases– Quite a few research and experimental

networks

• Some statistics to review

26

IPv4

IPv6ASN

IPv6

IPv4ASN

250,000 27,000

8501,000

IPv4 vs IPv6

APNIC IPv6 delegations by year

27 As of this date

Issues

• Obviously not many production networks deployed– Gap in understanding between front line

network engineers and decision makers• CEOs and CIOs do not seem interested or aware enough to make investments not making tangible profit

• Commercial value

Where are we heading?

• We should look to preserve the functionality and integrity of the Internet as a service platform– Functionality of applications– Viability of routing– Capability to sustain continued growth– Integrity of the network infrastructure

https://www.ripe.net/ripe/meetings/ripe-55/presentations/huston-ipv4.pdf

But this is not all…..

• We are running into exhaustion of the 16-bit AS Number pool– Estimated exhaustion time: 1200 UTC 1

November 2010– See http://www.potaroo.net/tools/asns

RIRs and 32-bit AS Numbers

• From 1 January 2007 the RIRs are allocating 32-bit AS numbers (upon specific request)

• From 1 January 2009 the RIRs will be allocating 32-bit AS numbers by default (leaving some 16-bit AS numbers available upon specific request)

Conclusion

• Plan

• Compare

• Prepare

• Test

• Deploy

IPv6 is not a new product to sell…..it is a means to sustainability

Thank you!

www.apnic.net