apollo tyres result updated
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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Y/E March - Consolidated (` cr) 4QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (yoy) Angel est. % diff.Net sales 3,231 2,730 18.4 3,344 (3.4)EBITDA 360 308 16.9 348 3.6
EBITDA margin (%) 11.1 11.3 (15)bp 10.4 75bp
Adjusted PAT 157 193 (18.6) 146 7.2Source: Company, Angel Research
Mixed performance on the consolidated front: Apollo Tyres (APTY) reported amixed set of 4QFY2012 results, as strong performance in domestic operations
was overshadowed by poor South African operations. APTYs consolidated top
line jumped by 18.4% yoy (flat qoq) to `3,231cr, driven by 8.8% yoy growth each
in total volumes and net average realization. While domestic operations witnessedstrong 14% yoy growth in volumes, Europe witnessed 4% yoy volume growth and
South Africa witnessed an 18% yoy decline in volumes as its operations were
impacted by planned shutdowns and rising threat of imported tyres. The
companys EBITDA margin expanded by 110bp sequentially (down 15bp yoy) to
11.1%, mainly due to margin improvement in the domestic business (EBITDA
margin improved 200bp yoy and 160bp sequentially) led by lower
raw-material expenses. Net profit declined by 18.6% yoy to `157cr mainly on
account of higher interest (up 31.5%) and depreciation (up 22.1%) expenses.
Healthy standalone performance: APTYs standalone net sales grew by strong28.2% yoy (7.9% qoq) to `2,259cr, driven by volume growth of 14% yoy (6.5%
qoq) and net average realization growth of 12.5% yoy (1.3% qoq). EBITDA
margin expanded by 200bp yoy (160bp qoq) to 9.6%, largely due to a decline in
raw-material expenses, leading to 61.9% yoy growth in operating profit. However,
net profit grew by just 9.2% yoy to `72cr, led by higher interest, depreciation and
tax expenses during the quarter.
Outlook and valuation: We revise upwards our earnings estimates forFY2013/14E at the standalone level, led by the likely improvement in OEM
demand as well as replacement segments and stable raw-material prices.
We expect APTY to deliver a healthy revenue CAGR of 11.8% over FY201214E,
led by production ramp-up at Chennai facility and revival in South Africa
operations. We expect the companys operating margin to improve in FY2013E,
driven by gradual softening of raw-material prices. At `82, APTY is trading at
attractive levels of 6.1x FY2014E earnings. We maintain our Buy rating on thestock with a target price of `100.Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014ENet sales 8,868 12,153 13,699 15,184% chg 9.2 37.1 12.7 10.8
Net profit 440 439 610 671% chg (32.6) (0.2) 38.8 10.1
EBITDA margin (%) 10.9 9.6 10.5 10.1
EPS (`) 8.7 8.7 12.1 13.3P/E (x) 9.4 9.3 6.8 6.1
P/BV (x) 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.0
RoE (%) 20.1 16.8 19.7 18.4
RoCE (%) 15.2 15.4 18.7 18.7
EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 5.6 4.4 3.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUYCMP `82
Target Price `100
Investment Period 12 Months
Stock Info
Sector
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 46.9
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 20.0
FII / NRIs / OCBs 23.3
Indian Public / Others 9.8
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex (7.5) (11.3) 38.3
Apollo Tyres 8.3 13.8 205.2
APTY@IN
Face Value (`)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
Tyre
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (`cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
16,420
4,966
APLO.BO
4,123
1.1
95/51
411,032
1
Yaresh Kothari022-3935 7800 Ext: [email protected]
Apollo TyresPerformance Highlights
4QFY2012 Result Update | Tyre
May 10, 2012
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Exhibit 1:Quarterly performance (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY12 4QFY11 % chg FY2012 FY2011 % chgNet sales 2,259 1,762 28.2 8,158 5,490 48.6Consumption of RM 1,635 1,279 27.9 5,997 3,712 61.5(% of sales) 72.4 72.6 73.5 67.6
Staff costs 95 75 26.8 369 307 20.1
(% of sales) 4.2 4.2 4.5 5.6
Purchases of TG 53 48 11.7 238 159 49.5
(% of sales) 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.9
Other expenses 259 227 14.4 888 791 12.3
(% of sales) 11.5 12.9 10.9 14.4
Total expenditure 2,042 1,628 25.5 7,492 4,969 50.8EBITDA 217 134 61.9 666 521 27.8EBITDA margin (%) 9.6 7.6 8.2 9.5
Interest 75 53 40 241 159 51.8
Depreciation 52 39 34 186 147 26.0
Other Income 16 39 (60.0) 18 49 (62.5)
PBT (excl. extr. Items) 106 81 30.8 258 264 (2.3)Exceptional items - - - - - -
PBT (incl. extr. Items) 106 81 30.8 258 264 (2.3)(% of sales) 4.7 4.6 3.2 4.8
Provision for taxation 33 14 129.9 76 65 16.7
(% of PBT) 31.5 17.9 29.6 24.8
Reported PAT 72 66 9.2 181 198 (8.5)PATM (%) 3.2 3.8 2.2 3.6
Equity capital (cr) 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.4
EPS (`) 1.4 1.3 9.2 3.6 3.9 (8.5)Source: Company, Angel Research
Net sales up 28.2% yoy on a 14% yoy increase in volumes: On a standalone basis,APTY registered strong top-line growth of 28.2% yoy (7.9% qoq) to `2,259cr,
backed by a strong 14% yoy increase each in volumes and net average realization,
respectively. Volume growth was led by strong OEM demand during the quarter
due to which proportion of OEM sales increased to ~34%.
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Standalone net profit up 9.2% yoy: Net profit for the quarter witnessed modest9.2% yoy (69.7% qoq) growth to `72cr despite strong growth in operating profit.
This can be attributed to higher interest (up 40.2% yoy) and depreciation expense
(up 34.4% yoy), led by ramping up of Chennai facility. Further, lower other income(down yoy) and high tax rate (31.5% in 4QFY2012) restricted the companys
profitability during the quarter.
Exhibit 6:Net profit up 9.2% yoy
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Standalone performance
8.8
3.63.2
3.8 3.8
2.31.2 2.0
3.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.04.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
(%)(`cr) Net profit Net profit margin (RHS)
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Exhibit 7:Quarterly performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY12 4QFY11 % chg FY2012 FY2011 % chgNet sales 3,231 2,730 18.4 12,153 8,868 37.1Consumption of RM 1,891 1,612 17.3 7,379 4,841 52.4(% of sales) 58.5 59.1 60.7 54.6
Staff costs 302 229 32.0 1,335 1,134 17.7
(% of sales) 9.4 8.4 11.0 12.8
Purchases of TG 202 149 35.4 658 481 36.7
(% of sales) 6.2 5.5 5.4 5.4
Other expenses 476 431 10.4 1,615 1,446 11.7
(% of Sales) 14.7 15.8 13.3 16.3
Total expenditure 2,871 2,421 18.6 10,987 7,903 39.0EBITDA 360 308 16.9 1,166 965 20.8EBITDA margin (%) 11.1 11.3 9.6 10.9
Interest 87 66 31.5 287 197 45.9Depreciation 90 74 22.1 326 272 19.7
Other Income 26 42 (37.2) 33 51 (35.9)
PBT (excl. extr. items) 210 210 (0.3) 586 547 7.1Exceptional Items - - 29 -
PBT (incl. extr. items) 210 210 (0.3) 556 547 1.7(% of sales) 6.5 7.7 4.6 6.2
Provision for taxation 51.5 18 191.3 144.4 106.3 35.8
(% of PBT) 24.6 8.4 25.9 19.4
Share in loss/(profit) of associates 1 (0) 2 1
Minority interest (0) 0 (0) (0)
Reported PAT 157 193 (18.6) 410 440 (6.9)Adjusted PAT 157 193 (18.6) 439 440 (0.2)PATM (%) 4.9 7.1 3.6 5.0
Equity capital 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.4
Reported EPS (`) 3.1 3.8 (18.7) 8.1 8.7 (6.9)Adjusted EPS (`) 3.1 3.8 (18.7) 8.7 8.7 (0.2)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Consolidated performance: For 4QFY2012, APTY registered strong net salesgrowth of 18.4% yoy (flat qoq) to `3,231cr, driven by 8.8% yoy growth each in
total volumes and net average realization. Indian operations were the prime
growth driver, with total sales increasing by 28.2% yoy, driven by 14% growth eachin volumes and net average realization. While European operations witnessed
slightly lower-than-expected growth of 8.7% yoy, poor performance in South Africa
impacted the overall performance. South Africa operations witnessed an 18% yoy
decline in volumes, led by poor demand, higher imports and on account of plant
shutdown due to national as well as company-specific issues.
On the operating front, the companys margin expanded by 110bp sequentially
(flat on yoy basis) to 11.1%, mainly due to margin improvement in the domestic
business (EBITDA margin improved by 200bp yoy and 160bp sequentially), led by
a decline in raw-material expenses. However, weak performance in South Africa
nullified the positive impact of strong domestic performance. While South Africaoperations reported operating loss largely due to a decline in volumes, Europe
operations witnessed a 200bp margin contraction sequentially during the quarter.
Net profit declined by 18.6% yoy to `157cr mainly on account of higher interest
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(up 31.5%) and depreciation (up 22.1%) expense and lower other income (down
37%). Further, higher tax rate (24.6% as against 8.4% in 4QFY2011) impacted the
companys bottom line negatively.
Exhibit 8:Segmental performance
4QFY12 4QFY11 % chg FY2012 FY2011 % chgRevenue (` cr)India 2,259 1,762 28.2 8,158 5,490 48.6
South Africa 339 354 (4.1) 1,305 1,183 10.3
Europe 677 623 8.7 2,850 2,234 27.5
Others 29 - - 105 - -
EBIT (` cr)India 180.4 134.1 34.6 498.8 422.5 18.1South Africa (11.2) 25.1 (144.5) (43.3) 32.5 (233.4)
Europe 119.0 116.5 2.2 386.4 299.2 29.1
Others 5.4 (1.2) (559.9) 1.4 (3.0) (146.9)
EBIT margin (%)India 8.0 7.6 6.1 7.7
SA (3.3) 7.1 (3.3) 2.7
Europe 17.6 18.7 13.6 13.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
Conference call Key highlights
Management expects standalone business momentum (expects growth of
~20% in FY2013E) to continue, led by double-digit growth expected in the
truck segment, while passenger cars is likely to witness high single-digit
growth. South Africa is expected to grow on the back of growth in the cars and
truck segments. Demand in Europe is likely to remain weak in FY2013.
Overall, management expects the companys consolidated top line to grow by
~15% in FY2013E.
Management expects raw-material prices to remain stable in FY2013.
However, adverse forex movement remains a major concern as two-thirds of
total raw material is imported.
APTY took an average price increase of ~1% in the domestic truck segment in
May 2012. In South Africa, the company increased prices by ~3% each in
February and April 2012.
Ramp-up at Chennai facility is on track. Current production is at 300MT/day
and is expected to reach 450MT/day by 3QFY2012.
APTY does not intend to incur any major capex in FY2013, except for
maintenance capex, which will be around `300cr. Of this, around
`100cr-120cr will be for Indian operations and rest for overseas.
On a consolidated basis, net debt stood at `2,700cr as of March 2012
(`2,900cr as of December 2011).
According to management, radialization levels in the TBR segment increased
to ~17% in FY2012.
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Investment arguments Tyre industry set for a structural shift: Currently, manufacturing radial tyres is
far more capital intensive than manufacturing cross-ply tyres. Investment
required for radial tyres per tpd is 3.2x that of cross-ply tyres at `6.1cr/tpd.
On the other hand, the selling price of radial tyres is ~20% higher than that of
cross-ply tyres. Thus, to generate similar RoCE and RoE, tyre companies would
need to earn EBITDA margin of ~21% compared to ~9% earned on
cross-ply tyres, considering the difference in capital requirements and the
consequent impact on asset turnover, interest cost and depreciation.
Therefore, higher capital requirements will help protect margins from
upward-bound input costs, as the business model evolves bearing in mind
final RoEs rather than margins. With the sector set for a structural shift and the
apparent pricing flexibility, RoCE and RoE of tyre manufacturers are expected
to improve going forward.
Riding on high domestic demand: The Indian tyre industry is witnessing strongdemand from the replacement as well as OEM markets, keeping capacities
running at peak. APTY is poised to achieve market leadership on the back of
increasing production from 820tpd in FY2010 to ~1,300tpd in 1HFY2013E.
Strategic overseas investment offers synergies in the long term: Acquisitionsdone by the company in the past two-three years are increasingly contributing
to its revenue. We estimate Vredestein Banden combined with Dunlop SA to
contribute close to 35% to the companys overall consolidated revenue,
helping it to further strengthen its foothold in the Indian tyre industry.Acquisitions offer synergies by way of access to radial tyre technology, wider
product portfolio and presence in newer geographies.
Outlook and valuation
We revise upwards our earnings estimates for FY2013/14E at the standalone level,
driven by the likely improvement in demand in the OEM as well replacement
segments and stable raw-material prices.
Exhibit 9: Change in estimates
Y/E March (` cr) Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates % chgFY2013E FY2014E FY2013E FY2014E FY2013E FY2014E
Net sales 13,580 15,007 13,699 15,184 0.9 1.2OPM (%) 10.1 10.2 10.5 10.1 41bp (0)bp
EPS (`) 10.5 12.5 12.1 13.3 14.8 6.5Source: Company, Angel Research
We remain positive on the tyre industry in view of the structural shift that the
industry is witnessing and due to softening raw-material prices, mainly natural
rubber. We expect the company to deliver a healthy revenue CAGR of 11.8% over
FY201214E, led by production ramp-up at Chennai facility and revival in South
Africa operations. We expect the companys operating margin to improve in
FY2013E, driven by gradual softening of raw-material prices.
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At `82, APTY is trading at attractive levels of 6.1x FY2014E earnings. We maintainour Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `100.Key downside risks to our call: A sharp rise in input costs from current levels,slower growth in international business and lower-than-anticipated domestic
replacement demand pose downside risks to our estimates.
Exhibit 10: Angel vs. consensus forecastAngel estimates Consensus Variation (%)
FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14ENet sales (` cr) 13,699 15,184 13,669 14,888 0.2 2.0EPS (`) 12.1 13.3 11.0 12.6 10.2 5.7
ource: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 11: One-year forward P/E band
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 12: One-year forward P/E chart
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 13: One-year forward EV/EBITDA band
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 14: One-year forward EV/EBITDA chart
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research
0
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Apr-0
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7
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(`) Share Price (`) 2x 5x 8x 11x
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(x) One-yr forward P/E Five-yr average P/E
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(`cr) EV (`cr) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
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(x) One-yr forward EV/EBITDA Five-yr average EV/EBITDA
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Exhibit 15: Tyre - Recommendation summary
Company Reco. CMP(`) Tgt. price(`) Upside(%)P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY11-13E EPS
FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E CAGR (%)Apollo Tyres* Buy 82 100 22.1 6.8 6.1 4.4 3.9 19.7 18.4 15.1Ceat Buy 97 164 68.5 2.5 2.4 3.6 3.5 18.8 16.5 84.7
JK Tyre* Buy 76 113 48.3 3.1 2.4 5.2 4.9 11.4 13.2 26.1
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Consolidated
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Profit and Loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14ETotal operating income 4,995 8,121 8,868 12,153 13,699 15,184% chg 6.4 62.6 9.2 37.1 12.7 10.8Total Expenditure 4,573 6,936 7,903 10,987 12,263 13,643Net Raw Materials 3,411 4,581 5,322 8,037 8,756 9,726
Other Mfg costs 337 539 648 546 630 720
Personnel 415 1,088 1,134 1,335 1,644 1,828
Other 410 727 798 1,069 1,233 1,370
EBITDA 422 1,185 965 1,166 1,436 1,541% chg (29.3) 180.7 (18.6) 20.8 23.1 7.3
(% of Net Sales) 8.5 14.6 10.9 9.6 10.5 10.1
Depreciation & Amort. 129 254 272 326 342 363
EBIT 294 931 693 840 1,094 1,178% chg (37.2) 216.9 (25.5) 21.3 30.1 7.7
(% of Net Sales) 5.9 11.5 7.8 6.9 8.0 7.8
Interest & other charges 112 134 197 287 258 258
Other Income 31 117 51 33 36 39
(% of PBT) 14.7 13.7 9.3 5.9 4.1 4.1
Recurring PBT 213 914 547 586 871 959% chg (47.3) 328.3 (40.1) 7.1 48.7 10.1
Extraordinary Items (1) 59 - 29 - -
PBT 214 855 547 556 871 959Tax 74 261 106 144 261 288
(% of PBT) 34.7 30.5 19.4 25.9 30.0 30.0
PAT (reported) 140 594 440 410 610 671Adj. PAT 139 653 440 439 610 671% chg (48.4) 369.5 (32.6) (0.2) 38.8 10.1
(% of Net Sales) 2.8 8.0 5.0 3.6 4.5 4.4
Basic EPS (`) 2.8 11.8 8.7 8.1 12.1 13.3Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 2.8 13.0 8.7 8.7 12.1 13.3% chg (50.0) 369.5 (32.6) (0.2) 38.8 10.1
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Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 50 50 50 50 50 50Reserves & Surplus 1,299 1,917 2,362 2,774 3,301 3,890
Shareholders Funds 1,350 1,968 2,413 2,825 3,352 3,940Minority Interest - - 1 1 1 1
Total Loans 891 1,707 2,480 2,550 2,350 2,350
Deferred Tax Liability 194 251 316 316 316 316
Total Liabilities 2,435 3,926 5,210 5,691 6,018 6,607APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 2,284 5,563 6,903 7,624 7,964 8,436
Less: Acc. Depreciation 882 3,120 3,501 3,826 4,169 4,531
Net Block 1,402 2,443 3,403 3,798 3,796 3,904Capital Work-in-Progress 281 536 503 557 581 616
Goodwill 24 118 117 117 117 117
Investments 5 6 11 17 21 26Current Assets 1,423 2,439 3,290 3,901 4,331 5,020
Cash 362 349 191 173 130 363
Loans & Advances 206 310 395 583 658 729
Other 855 1,780 2,704 3,144 3,544 3,929
Current liabilities 700 1,614 2,113 2,697 2,828 3,075
Net Current Assets 723 824 1,177 1,204 1,504 1,945Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 2,435 3,926 5,210 5,691 6,018 6,607
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Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14EProfit before tax 213 914 547 586 871 959
Depreciation 129 254 272 326 342 363Change in Working Capital 32 (115) (510) (45) (343) (208)
Less: Others 212 637 263 - - -
Other income (31) (117) (51) (33) (36) (39)
Direct taxes paid (74) (261) (106) (144) (261) (288)
Cash Flow from Operations 480 1,312 415 689 573 787(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (517) (3,533) (1,307) (774) (365) (506)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments 0 (1) (5) (6) (4) (5)
Other income 31 117 51 33 36 39
Cash Flow from Investing (485) (3,417) (1,262) (747) (334) (471)Issue of Equity 46 - - - -- -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 245 816 773 70 (200) -
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 27 44 29 29 83 83
Others (234) 1,231 (114) - - -
Cash Flow from Financing 83 2,091 689 40 (283) (83)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 77 (13) (158) (18) (43) 233
Opening Cash balance 285 362 349 191 173 130Closing Cash balance 362 349 191 173 130 363
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Apollo Tyres
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, pleaserefer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited andits affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.