appendix 11.2 volume 3, chapter 11: community€¦ · table of tables table 3.1: existing baseline...

Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT Appendix 11. 2 – Updated Community baseline

Appendix 11.2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

APPENDIX 11.2 Volume 3, Chapter 11: Community

Appendix 11.2: Updated Community Baseline



CONTENTS

1. Introduction 1

1.2 Purpose 1

1.3 Principles for an updated baseline and assessment 3

2. Case studies 4

2.1 Approaches in other major project Environmental Statements 4 High Speed Two 4 Thames Tideway Tunnel 5 Hinkley Point C 5 Summary 6

3. Potential influences on existing (2011 Census) baseline data 7

4. Published local information 15

5. Conclusion – creating an updated baseline 18

6. Preliminary updated baseline for relevant study areas and effects/receptors 19

Population and age structure 19 Households 25 Dwellings 27

TABLE OF TABLES

Table 3.1: Existing baseline measures and alternatives 7 Table 4.1: Local and regional data sources 15 Table 6.1: Change in population/age structure, 2011-17 (ONS mid-2017 population estimates and Census 2011) 19 Table 6.2: Ethnicity (Annual Population Survey 2017/18 and Census 2011) 23 Table 6.3: Ethnicity for London boroughs (GLA, 2017) 24 Table 6.4: Ethnicity in wider study area primary and secondary schools (Annual School Census, 2018) 25 Table 6.5: 2016 household estimates, types and changes, 2011-16 (ONS sub-national household projections, 2016-based) 26 Table 6.6: Tenure structure and changes since 2011 (MHCLG Live Table 100 and Census 2011) 28 Table 6.7: Tenure for London boroughs (Annual Population Survey, GLA analysis and Census 2011) 30



TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 11.2.1: Ethnicity of primary school pupils – community inner study area

APPENDICES

Annex A Stakeholder feedback and record of changes Annex B Figures


Appendix 11.2-1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

INTRODUCTION

1.1.1 This appendix sets out Heathrow’s proposed approach to update, where possible, baseline data from the 2011 Census in order to develop a robust, spatially significant baseline dataset on which to assess potential effects. This primarily relates to demographic, population and housing data relevant to the Community assessment (Chapter 11: Community, Volume 1).

1.1.2 This appendix sets out:

1. The purpose and principles for this work (Section 1)

2. Case studies that review how other large scale infrastructure projects have developed a robust, up-to-date position on baseline information (Section 2)

3. Potential sources of public data that could influence or provide an update to the 2011 Census baseline (Section 3)

4. Potential sources of information published by local public bodies that could influence or provide an update to the 2011 Census baseline (Section 4)

5. Conclusions – the potential for an updated baseline (Section 5)

6. Preliminary updated baseline for relevant study areas and effects / receptors (Section 6) – this draws on previous sections to highlight the most robust sources of information that could be used to infer how the baseline has changed since 2011. It is intended as a first step in setting an agreed baseline for further assessment beyond the Preliminary Environmental Information Report (PEIR) and is referenced in the PEIR where relevant

7. Annex A sets out feedback from members of HSPG who were asked to comment on and review the content of this note and suggest additional data sources which will be developed in the leas up to the ES

8. Annex B provides the supporting Figure 11.2.1 which outlines the ethnicity of primary school pupils within the inner study area.

1.2 Purpose

1.2.1 In order to undertake a robust assessment of likely significant effects that the DCO Project may have on community receptors, it is essential to have a full understanding of the existing demographic, housing and socio-economic characteristics that define communities around the Airport (and across identified study areas).



1.2.2 Most of the community and socio-economic demographic baseline developed so far (for the EIA Scoping Report, May 2018) is necessarily based on the 2011 Census. The 2011 Census has the great advantage of being the most comprehensive database of local demographics. It is spatially fine-grained, allowing for community-level detail on important baseline information such as resident age, ethnicity, economic characteristics and housing characteristics. However, the 2011 Census data is now almost eight years old, and the next Census is not due until 2021 (likely to be after application for development consent).

1.2.3 This appendix sets out:

a. Datasets from the Census that help define the baseline for the community study areas

b. Heathrow’s suggestions on how more recent datasets (that may be collected via a sample survey, through modelling, or at a wider spatial scale that could be used to inform how Census data may have changed over time) could be used to estimate how baseline demographic, housing and economic characteristics may have changed. While many Census categories are also measured by more recent surveys or studies, no other data source is as comprehensive as the Census. More recent data tends to be one of two types – sample survey data and modelled data. The former can be limited by small sample sizes and therefore be statistically unreliable, while the latter can be limited at the local level in particular by its dependence on other information and assumptions.

1.2.4 Based on the above, Heathrow will attempt to make some reasonable assumptions about how characteristics of the population may have changed, to help inform the baseline for the PEIR and eventually for the Environmental Statement (ES) to support the application for development consent. This appendix suggests the PEIR baseline uses a synthesis between comprehensive but outdated Census data and up-to-date but less fine-grained alternatives.

1.2.5 In consideration of ‘best / standard practice’ across the industry, this appendix also includes a review of approaches taken in other major application ESs including High Speed Two, Thames Tideway and Hinkley Point C. It identifies alternative data sources where they are available and discusses the assumptions and limitations of newer data sources, including the geographies they are available for and the underlying methodology, and if (and how) they may provide a guide to how existing detailed datasets from 2011 may have changed over time. It also reviews key work produced by local planning authorities (LPAs) to measure and summarise population characteristics at a local level, summarising what these can tell us about local demographics.



1.2.6 This appendix also seeks to invite the input of the LPAs involved in the Heathrow Strategic Planning Group (HSPG). It invites HSPG bodies to comment on Heathrow’s initial suggested approach, the potential alternatives identified and the best-practice principles which need to be followed for a robust assessment. Heathrow intends to follow a collaborative approach, and this appendix will be updated following input from the HSPG.

1.3 Principles for an updated baseline and assessment

1.3.1 A key principle of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is that assessments should be based on the most reliable, comprehensive and up-to-date information available. As demonstrated by the case studies above, this may mean having to balance these needs against each other, where information is either not comprehensive or not recent.

1.3.2 Heathrow’s suggested approach is to update existing data which is known to be comprehensive but older by supplementing it with more up-to-date information, while recognising the limitations of this data as discussed in the next section. The assessment will also use bespoke primary data which will be collected for the application for development consent, such as information collected on properties subject to Compulsory Purchase.

1.3.3 Any data source used in the assessment necessarily represents a set point in time and can change due to wider changes in economic conditions or demographic trends. The assessment will as far as possible try to account for this by using future projections and identifying sensitivities to change. The DCO Project will involve long timescales for construction and operation. An adaptive assessment of effects will be used, which takes a ‘plan, monitor, manage’ approach. This will incorporate assumptions about future monitoring and adaptive mitigation of effects which occur during construction and operation.



2. CASE STUDIES

2.1 Approaches in other major project Environmental Statements

2.1.1 The Census is updated every ten years. In addition, full Census results are usually only released about two years after the Census date. As a result, projects in pre-release years such as 2011 or 2012 face a similar problem to the PEIR by having to rely on older Census data. Socio-economic assessments within ESs for major projects have developed different approaches to this, as discussed below.

High Speed Two 2.1.2 High Speed Two (HS2) is being pursued in phases through the Hybrid Bill

permission process. Phase 1 was submitted to Parliament in 2013; the Phase 1 ES1 makes use of 2011 Census data. However, Phase 2a was submitted to Parliament in 2017 and Phase 2b is due to be submitted in 2019/20. Phase 2a includes a full ES (published 2017), while a ‘working draft’ ES was published in 2018 for Phase 2b.

2.1.3 The Phase 2a and 2b (full and draft) ESs2,3 use highly linear study areas for local communities, due to the nature of the project. They have a complex structure which breaks down community effects by ‘community area’. The Phase 2a ES reports an overall socio-economic and labour market baseline for the whole project and community / health baselines (‘profiles’) for each individual community area.

2.1.4 The baselines do use Census 2011 data in places, particularly at ward level for community profiles. However, more recent data is also used where it is available. For example, ward population and density profiles are based on Office for National Statistics (ONS) mid-year population estimates from 2014/15 (which are available at output area level). Community profiles also make use of other data sources, particularly the Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and published health statistics from the National Health Service (NHS) and local Joint Strategic Needs Assessments. The Phase 2a socio-economics and labour market baseline does not use any Census data, instead relying on later ONS data including the Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES), Annual Population Survey (APS) or UK Business Counts, all of which are available at LPA level (the level used for the route-wide baseline). The Phase 2a methodology does not explicitly address the

1 High Speed 2 (November 2013), ‘London-West Midlands Environmental Statement Volume 3: Route-wide Effects’ (https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hs2-phase-one-environmental-statement-documents) [Accessed January 2019] 2 High Speed 2 (July 2017), ‘West Midlands-Crewe Environmental Statement Volume 3: Route-wide Effects’ (https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hs2-phase-2a-environmental-statement) [Accessed January 2019] 3 High Speed 2 (October 2018), ‘High Speed Rail (Crewe to Manchester and West London to Leeds Working Draft Environmental Statement Volume 3: Route-wide Effects’ (https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hs2-phase-2b-working-draft-environmental-statement) [Accessed January 2019]

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hs2-phase-one-environmental-statement-documents

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hs2-phase-2a-environmental-statement

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hs2-phase-2b-working-draft-environmental-statement

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hs2-phase-2b-working-draft-environmental-statement



question of updating the Census, but the baseline in practice appears to use whatever dataset is both most up-to-date and available at necessary study areas.

Thames Tideway Tunnel 2.1.5 The Thames Tideway Tunnel Development Consent Order (DCO) application was

submitted in early 2013. The project ES was not able to use Census 2011 material as only Census 2001 data was available at the time of submission. This also was a highly linear project; the ES reports both project-wide socio-economic effects (at London level and within the affected boroughs) and for multiple community areas around the project sites. For all levels the assessment uses Census 2001 for many measures, including population, age structure, ethnicity and other demographics. It also uses more up-to-date sources such as IMD, BRES or public health profiles but these generally are not directly substituting for the Census. The ES caveats its use of Census 2001 in all instances by stating that Census 2011 data was not available at the time of writing. The ES methodology also caveats the Census data by stating that it is historical and reflects a point in time:

‘…data presented within the assessment is historic and accurate forecasts are either not available or cannot be accurately predicted… However, the assessments of socio-

economic effects have not been exclusively dependent on any single piece or set of data. The data provide context or guidance to the assessment and have not been directly relied

upon in reaching an assessment of the significance of effects on individual receptors. Efforts have been made to obtain the most recently available data, including by

undertaking primary data collection.’4

2.1.6 Thames Tideway’s approach was to continue using older Census data, supplementing but not replacing with some newer data and caveating weaknesses.

Hinkley Point C 2.1.7 The Hinkley Point C DCO application was submitted in 2011, with the latest

Census data available at the time of submission being Census 2001. The socio-economic assessment in the ES5 generally used more up-to-date data than Census 2001 where possible. For example, total population and age profiles are taken from ONS mid-year population estimates from 2009. For some measures the 2001 Census is used in the absence of alternatives (for example, commuting or moving groups data), and in some instances it is used alongside more up-to-date data (for example, housing data alongside 2009 dwelling stock data). The

4 Thames Tideway Tunnel (Jan 2013), ‘Environmental Statement, Volume 2: Environmental assessment methodology, Section 10: Socio-economics’, p. 38. (https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/wp-content/ipc/uploads/projects/WW010001/WW010001-000878-6.2.02_Environmental_Statement_Volume_2_Assessment_Methodology_Sections_1_to_15.pdf) [Accessed: May 2019] 5 EDF Energy (October 2011), ‘Hinkley Point C Environmental Statement, Volume 1: Hinkley Point C Development Site’ (https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/projects/south-west/hinkley-point-c-new-nuclear-power-station/?ipcsection=docs&stage=app&filter1=Environmental+Statement) [Accessed January 2019]

https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/wp-content/ipc/uploads/projects/WW010001/WW010001-000878-6.2.02_Environmental_Statement_Volume_2_Assessment_Methodology_Sections_1_to_15.pdf

https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/wp-content/ipc/uploads/projects/WW010001/WW010001-000878-6.2.02_Environmental_Statement_Volume_2_Assessment_Methodology_Sections_1_to_15.pdf

https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/projects/south-west/hinkley-point-c-new-nuclear-power-station/?ipcsection=docs&stage=app&filter1=Environmental+Statement

https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/projects/south-west/hinkley-point-c-new-nuclear-power-station/?ipcsection=docs&stage=app&filter1=Environmental+Statement



baseline also makes use of detailed local data from sources such as LPAs or bespoke research carried out for the DCO application, particularly for construction skills and housing (both major examination issues).

Summary 2.1.8 Projects have taken different approaches to updating baseline data. Some, such

as Thames Tideway, have not updated the last Census, despite its age. Others have used more up-to-date data to either supplement or wholly replace Census data. Hinkley Point C in particular used detailed estimates of local demographics based on National Statistics and other sources. However, in all cases there were some Census measures that could not be wholly replaced.

Heathrow Expansion Appendix 11.2 – Updated community baseline


3. POTENTIAL INFLUENCES ON EXISTING (2011 CENSUS) BASELINE DATA

3.1.1 Table 3.1 lists the main demographic and socio-economic measures used previously in the community and socio-economic baseline. This table is not exhaustive but focuses in particular on data taken from the 2011 Census, as most other data sources are more recent and more regularly updated and so do not need supplementing.

3.1.2 A large amount of primary research will be a necessary part of the application for development consent. For example, data will be collected on properties within the Compulsory Purchase Zone (CPZ) as part of the compulsory purchase process for the DCO application. This data and research will be used to inform the community and socio-economic assessments.

3.1.3 The ONS has recently released a 2021 Census White Paper, setting out the future of the Census.6 This indicates that the next Census will take place in 2021 (too late for the Heathrow application for development consent to make use of). It will retain most categories from the 2011 Census, as well as new questions on sexual and gender identity and UK armed forces veterans. It also describes the ONS’s plans to replace the Census after 2021 with rolling and regularly updated measures of the population, based on a range of administrative datasets. The ONS is currently in the process of designing and researching some examples of these datasets. However, while the ONS may release some data before submission of the application for development consent, this is likely to be experimental data that cannot be relied upon for EIA purposes.

Table 3.1: Existing baseline measures and alternatives

Measure Current, most detailed dataset

Potential update / alternative

How it might help us update our knowledge on the characteristics of the measure

Limitations

Total Population Age

Census 2011 ONS Subnational / Small Area Population Estimates

Can give full and recent (2016/17) population, age and gender estimates for all areas, down to Output Areas. This

These are reliant on the accuracy of the ONS's modelling. This will necessarily be more variable at Output Area level.

6 ONS (December 2018), ‘Help Shape Our Future: The 2021 Census of Population and Housing in England and Wales.’ [Available online: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/765089/Census2021WhitePaper.pdf] [Accessed: May 2019]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/765089/Census2021WhitePaper.pdf






Limitations

Sex Population density

Greater London Authority (GLA) population projections

can give us an indication of the basic population characteristics and changes since 2011. These are also official National Statistics. The GLA also produces a range of population projections including at ward level; these are primarily for London areas. These are useful context; however, ONS estimates would offer greater consistency by covering all areas.

GLA projections do not go below ward level. They are reliant on the assumptions in GLA modelling and primarily apply to London areas.

Total Households Household composition (family type)

Census 2011 ONS Household Projections (2016-based) Or GLA Household Projections (for London areas)

These are National Statistics and indicate the ONS's modelling of the change in the number and composition of households and projected change up to 2041. They can indicate household growth since 2011; they are also commonly used in the planning system. The GLA produces trend-based projections for households at borough level, with both short- and long-term variants produced.

These are reliant on the accuracy of the ONS's modelling. They are only available at LPA level. The categories of households are also not as detailed as the Census. GLA projections are also reliant on modelling assumptions, and only available for London boroughs.

Dwellings Tenure

Census 2011 Valuation Office Agency (VOA) Council Tax

The VOA data measures total dwellings by council

VOA data is dependent on council tax receipts; this should be acceptable if caveated.






Limitations

Stock of Properties (2018) and Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) Live Tables on Dwelling Stock (2017)

tax band for LPAs, Mid-level Super Output Areas (MSOAs) and Lower-level Super Output Areas (LSOAs)7. They can be used to understand the change in dwelling stock at LSOA/MSOA level since 2011. Updated annually. The MHCLG Live Tables give total dwelling stock by tenure for LPAs and are statutory National Statistics. These are based on LPA data; LPAs use Census 2011 as a base and update by reconciling housing flows. These can be used to measure change over time. They also include live tables for vacant dwellings (these are based on council tax data); this can be used together to give a fuller insight. Updated annually, can measure housing flows.

Only available at LPA level. The MHCLG Live Tables are reliant on LPA data, but this is a statutory function and is considered acceptable. They are also only available at LPA level or higher. The main limitation is that they measure dwellings rather than households, which will need to be caveated.

Occupancy rating [household overcrowding]

Census 2011 English Housing Survey

This is annual but is only available for regions. It can give regional trends for London and South East since 2011.

Only available for regions; can only give regional trends.

7 MSOAs and LSOAs are geographic hierarchy designed to improve the reporting of small area statistics in England and Wales






Limitations

There is no other reliable measure; IMD housing domain could be used but this in turn uses some Census data and would not be a full update. The GLA produces London-wide statistics (for example, annual Housing in London report) which includes overcrowding, but this is itself based on English Housing Survey.

Ethnicity Census 2011 Annual Population Survey (APS) or GLA borough-level estimates (London areas only) or Department for Education (DfE) Annual School Census

The APS measures ethnic groups based on survey returns, for LPAs. It can give an indication of change in relative proportions of white and Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) residents for LPAs since 2011. The GLA statistics are based on bespoke population / household projections produced for the London Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA). They also include projections forward through the London Plan period.

The APS is only available at LPA level. It is prone in some LPAs (for example, South Bucks District) to small sample size and decreased reliability; also, ethnic groups in some LPAs can be small and very difficult to measure from survey data. For some LPAs the APS can only measure total BAME population. Unfortunately, there is likely to be no reliable measure for individual ethnic groups for some non-London LPAs other than the Census. The APS also measures residents aged 16 and over The GLA estimates are only available for London and are dependent on the accuracy of the GLA’s






Limitations

The Annual School Census measures pupils in every publicly-funded school by ethnicity; summary statistics at local education authority (counties, unitary authorities or London boroughs) level are also available. This can give an insight into ethnicity for local areas around schools, based on local schoolchildren.

bespoke population modelling. The Annual School Census can only measure state school pupils. Secondary school pupils often travel longer distances so are less ‘local’.

Language Census 2011 DfE Annual School Census or Annual Population Survey (full dataset, not publicly available)

The Census is the main national study of the main language(s) spoken by people in England. Updated statistics are mainly produced by public bodies measuring service users. The Annual School Census is the most comprehensive. It measures pupils in every publicly-funded school whose first language is or is not English. This data can indicate small area differences in resident languages and the prevalence of English in local households, as reflected by children in school. It is recommended that only data for primary schools is used, as

The Annual School Census can only measure state school pupils. Secondary school pupils often travel longer distances so are less ‘local’. The data also only has two categories (first language English/not English). The Annual Population Survey would have issues with small populations and sample sizes for some (non-London) authorities; it would be unreliable for detailed breakdowns of minority languages. It is also only available in the full dataset and may have to be ordered and paid for, with strict data use conditions. It may be possible to request






Limitations

secondary schools usually have larger and less defined catchment areas. The DfE also produces summary statistics at county, unitary authority or London borough level. The Labour Force Survey/APS measures main language every three years; this could be used at LPA level. The GLA have produced a summary of this data by London borough and national region for 2015.

this directly from the ONS.

Religion Census 2011 Annual Population Survey (full dataset, not publicly available)

The APS measures religion using the same categories as the Census. The ONS have previously released APS data for parliamentary constituencies for 2015.

This is only available in the full dataset and would need either special access or a specific ad hoc query to the ONS. This would also have issues with small sample sizes and populations in some LPAs, particularly for minority religions.

Marriage or civil partnership

Census 2011 ONS Population estimates by marital status and living arrangements

The ONS produces annual estimates of the married population, based on Labour Force Survey/APS data for national level only. This is not likely to be a high priority for the PEIR assessments, although it is an

No subnational estimates are published but the ONS may provide estimates at LPA level on request. Data based on surveys would be of variable quality at LPA level.






Limitations

Equality Act 2010 ‘Protected Characteristic’ so would likely be needed for the Equality Impact Assessment supporting the application for development consent.

Disability Census 2011 Annual Population Survey or Disability-related benefit claimant rates

The APS measures disability at LPA level; the definition also conforms to the Equality Act 2010. There are several types of disability-related benefits, including Personal Independence Payment, Employment and Support Allowance (ESA), Disability Living Allowance (DLA) and some Universal Credit cases. Some are available below LPA level at Super Output Area level.

Only available for LPAs or higher geographies. Small sample size means high variability for some LPAs. Disability-related benefits are different measures to self-reported disability, as they are not self-assessed and are more related to ability to work. Welfare reform has significantly changed the nature of disability-related benefits in recent years; DLA and ESA are currently being phased out and Universal Credit has stricter eligibility rules. Using welfare data would be complex and heavily caveated as a result, with rates tending to fall over time because of changes in measurement. These measures will be likely to be unreliable as a result.

General Health

Census 2011 Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2015 Health Domain

The Census question on health is a very simple measure and asks people to rate their general health from very good to

Some underlying measures for the IMD health domain are from before 2015; however, IMD will be updated in 2019.






Limitations

or Range of NHS or ONS public health statistics (e.g. life expectancy)

very bad. More detailed quantitative measures can provide more insight on health and are updated more regularly. The IMD health domain combines several measures of health and disability inequality at LSOA level and ranks areas. Life expectancy is a useful absolute measure of population health and available for LPAs for 2015-17, although lower level data for wards or MSOAs is available from 2015 via Public Health England’s Local Health site.

Life expectancy indicates average health in an area; other measures could be used to assess numbers of people with poor health if necessary.

Deprivation Indices of Multiple Deprivation, 2015

MHCLG have indicated by correspondence that the next IMD update is due in summer 2019

It is recommended to continue to use IMD 2015 until MHCLG release the next update.

Some of the underlying measures of the IMD are older than 2015. The 2019 update will likely use some slightly different measures, although MHCLG guidance will explain this.

Range of health statistics

NHS, Public Health England

- These are regularly updated, no action needed.



4. PUBLISHED LOCAL INFORMATION

4.1.1 LPAs and other bodies within the HSPG area have published a range of demographic and socio-economic information. These include ward profiles, evidence bases for local plans and Joint Strategic Needs Assessments (JSNAs) produced by NHS bodies. A review has been undertaken of key examples to set out how these could inform the baseline to inform the community assessment for the application for development consent.

Table 4.1: Local and regional data sources

Authority/area Sources Comment

London Borough of Hillingdon

Ward Profiles (2018) These set out demographic profiles for each ward in the London Borough of Hillingdon and were updated in 2018. The data is drawn from publicly-available datasets, including Census 2011 and others discussed in this note. Estimates of households use the electoral register and can be compared to other measures for comparison, for the London Borough of Hillingdon.

Hillingdon JSNA, 2017 Sets out a range of statistics, including demographic characteristics. Many are drawn from public datasets including GLA, Census and Public Health England data. Detailed data on health and vulnerable groups.

London Borough of Hounslow

Hounslow JSNA, 2017 (Hounslow JSNA, 2019)

Range of demographic and health statistics, including from ONS and GLA datasets. Identifies vulnerable groups and needs. The London Borough of Hounslow Council has indicated that an updated JSNA will be published in 2019; this will be reviewed when available.

Hounslow Insights / Hounslow ward profiles

Online council database with a range of demographic, social and contextual information about the London Borough of Hounslow including borough and ward profiles.

Hounslow Local Economic Assessment 2011

Considers available data on business, employment, skills, housing, transport and population

Hounslow Regeneration and Economic Development Strategy 2016-20 with evidence base

Sets out the regeneration and economic development priorities and interventions for the borough and includes information on socio-economic inequality.

London Borough of Ealing

Ealing JSNA, 2017 Sets out major health needs. Includes document on population characteristics setting out demographics of




the London Borough of Ealing (based on ONS, GLA and Public Health England data).

Greater London Authority

London Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) (2017)

Summary of London housing market and housing need.

GLA Population/Household Projections (2017)

Range of 2016-based population projections at London, borough and ward level, including breakdowns by age, sex and ethnicity. Also includes household projections at borough level. Only available for London areas.

Spelthorne Borough

Local Plan Evidence Base (developing)

Spelthorne Borough Council is in the process of developing a new Local Plan. The SHMA (2015, jointly produced with Runnymede Borough Council) in particular sets out detailed information on housing; however, much of the baseline for these documents is from the Census and other public datasets. Spelthorne Borough Council have indicated that an updated SHMA will be published in 2019; which will be reviewed when available.

Spelthorne Authority Monitoring Reports (2018, published annually)

Records annual development in Spelthorne Borough and performance compared to council policies, including total annual housing development, commercial development and council spending.

Runnymede Borough

Borough Profile (2018) Demographic summary of Runnymede Borough based on ONS and other public datasets.

Local Plan Evidence Base (developing)

Runnymede Borough Council is in the process of developing a new Local Plan. This includes documents produced jointly with Spelthorne Borough Council including the SHMA (2015). Spelthorne Borough Council have indicated that an updated SHMA will be published in May 2019; this will be reviewed when available.

Elmbridge Borough

‘Knowing Our Communities’ (2017) and ‘Housing in Elmbridge Facts & Figures 2015’

Demographic and housing information for Elmbridge Borough and wards. Draws on Census and ONS data, identifying structure of housing markets and demographics. Also identifies concentrations of business activity based on local business rates.

Kingston and North Surrey SHMA, 2016

Jointly produced with other North Surrey authorities; identifies housing market characteristics in Elmbridge Borough.

Surrey County Council

Surrey JSNA (2016, with subsequent updates)

Study of the health and care needs of Surrey, including Runnymede Borough, Spelthorne Borough and Elmbridge Borough. Includes interactive profiles of the county, districts and wards, using a range of public datasets including ONS, NHS, Public Health England and Census data.

Surrey-i Online database with a range of demographic, economic and housing data and information for Surrey. Includes information published nationally by ONS,




MHCLG etc and data/information published by Surrey County Council and district/borough councils.

Slough Borough Ward profiles (2018), part of Slough JSNA (2018).

Summaries of the demographics of wards in Slough Borough, based on a range of Census, ONS, Public Health England and other public datasets. Also includes data on land use in Slough Borough based on European Environment Agency data. The JSNA also provides further detail on Slough Borough health indicators and summarises areas public health priorities. Produced with Berkshire Public Health Team.

Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead

JSNA (2016), including Ward Profiles

Summary of health needs in the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead. Includes demographic summaries of every ward in the Royal Borough, based on a range of Census, ONS, Public Health England and other public datasets. Produced with Berkshire Public Health Team.

Berkshire Authorities [Slough Borough, Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead]

Berkshire SHMA (2016) Sets out the housing baseline and development needs for Berkshire authorities, including detailed data based on a range of public datasets.

South Bucks District

Emerging South Bucks and Chiltern Local Plan Evidence Base, especially Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessment (HEDNA) (2015-17)

Study of the housing, labour and economic development markets in South Bucks District and surrounding authorities. Includes detailed data on housing and economic baselines, drawing out future development needs.

Buckinghamshire County Council

Public Health Local Area Forum Profiles (2017)

Demographic and public health profiles of 19 Local Area Forums, including areas in South Bucks District. Use Public Health England, NHS and ONS data.



5. CONCLUSION – CREATING AN UPDATED BASELINE

5.1.1 Table 3.1 and Table 4.1 suggest that the current baseline relies on four broad categories of data:

1. Data based on the 2011 Census that can be relatively easily replaced by National Statistics at all levels

2. Data based on the 2011 Census that can be replaced only at higher geographies or with less reliable or accurate survey data

3. Data based on the 2011 Census that cannot be easily replaced but could be supplemented by other measures or regional/national updates

4. Data that is reasonably recent and regularly updated which does not need replacing.

5.1.2 A consolidated and updated baseline presents a challenge of presentation, which Heathrow suggests dealing with in the following way:

1. The first and last categories are relatively easy to present, and the baseline can simply present the most recent measure (potentially with a summary of rates of change since 2011)

2. The second and third categories potentially require presenting both the comprehensive 2011 measure alongside the more up-to-date but less comprehensive measure in the same table, with in some cases some supporting commentary on how the updated data updates our understanding of the measure and how it relates to the assessment.

5.1.3 The final output would therefore be a synthesis of older and newer data.



6. PRELIMINARY UPDATED BASELINE FOR RELEVANT STUDY AREAS AND EFFECTS/RECEPTORS

6.1.1 Based on the datasets set out in Sections 3 and 4, the principles in Section 1 and 2 and the conclusions of Section 5, this section presents updated baseline data from the sources discussed previously and sets out some preliminary conclusions on what this data suggests have been the major changes in the study areas since 2011.

6.1.2 This section draws on previous sections to highlight the most robust sources of information that could be used to infer how the baseline has changed since 2011. It is intended as a first step in setting an agreed baseline for further assessment beyond the PEIR and is referenced in the PEIR where relevant.

6.1.3 As discussed in previous sections, this data is not necessarily as comprehensive or as fine-grained as the Census, and some qualitative interpretation is necessary. It also must be stressed that this data is subject to limitations as discussed above and is dependent in many cases on the assumptions embedded within modelling by the ONS or others.

Population and age structure 6.1.4 The ONS’s mid-2017 population estimates for small areas can be directly

compared with data from the 2011 Census at all spatial levels. The following table sets out the changes in terms of population and age structure in communities in the inner study area since 2011.

Table 6.1: Change in population/age structure, 2011-17 (ONS mid-2017 population estimates and Census 2011)

Change 2011-17 Age structure change 2011-17

Area Total Population Increase % 0-4 5-11. 12-17. 18-64 65+


4,287 1% 100 (0%)

5200 (19%)

-21 (0%)

-7292 (-3%)

6300 (17%)


28,407 10% 2900 (15%)

5700 (24%)

0 (0%) 14900 (9%)

4900 (14%)






15,143 6% 1000 (5%)

5700 (28%)

-284 (-2%)

3800 (2%)

4900 (18%)

Slough Borough

8,563 6% 200 (2%)

4100 (30%)

600 (6%)

1800 (2%)

1800 (14%)


5,580 4% -622 (-7%)

1900 (16%)

500 (5%)

200 (0%)

3600 (15%)


2,918 4% 0 (1%)

1000 (18%)

-244 (-5%)

500 (1%)

1700 (13%)

Elmbridge Borough

5,504 4% -52 (-1%)

2200 (18%)

400 (4%)

-100 (0%)

3100 (14%)

Runnymede Borough

6,372 8% 100 (2%)

1100 (20%)

-62 (-1%)

3800 (7%)

1400 (10%)

Spelthorne Borough

3,522 4% 400 (7%)

1400 (20%)

-359 (-5%)

300 (1%)

1700 (10%)

Wider study area

80,296 5% 4200 (4%)

28200 (22%)

600 (1%)

18000 (2%)

29300 (15%)

Bedfont 1,050 8% 100 (8%)

400 (33%)

-25 (-3%)

400 (5%)

200 (17%)

Brands Hill 166 6% -12 (-5%)

100 (39%)

0 (12%)

0 (1%) 0 (29%)

Colnbrook 226 12% 0 (21%)

100 (44%)

0 (4%) 100 (7%)

0 (21%)

Cranford 574 8% 0 (6%)

200 (30%)

-21 (-4%)

200 (5%)

200 (23%)

Cranford Cross 319 20% 0 (11%)

100 (50%)

0 (24%)

200 (16%)

0 (38%)

Feltham North 520 4% 0 (5%)

300 (28%)

-80 (-9%)

300 (3%)

100 (4%)

Harlington 1,148 25% 100 (23%)

300 (81%)

100 (41%)

600 (18%)

100 (29%)

Harmondsworth 591 32% 0 (34%)

0 (28%)

-3 (-2%)

500 (38%)

0 (18%)

Hayes 1,395 9% -3 (0%)

300 (16%)

-24 (-2%)

1000 (10%)

200 (17%)

Heston 1,460 4% 200 (6%)

600 (20%)

-243 (-8%)

200 (1%)

700 (18%)





Hounslow Central and South

2,593 10% 300 (17%)

700 (38%)

100 (3%)

900 (5%)

600 (20%)

Hounslow West and Heath

3,282 10% 400 (16%)

900 (30%)

200 (8%)

1100 (5%)

700 (21%)

Iver and Richings Park

256 11% 0 (14%)

100 (36%)

-60 (-30%)

200 (11%)

100 (23%)

Longford 95 38% 0 (50%)

0 (114%)

0 (57%)

100 (34%)

0 (41%)

Poyle 137 8% 0 (2%)

100 (75%)

-34 (-35%)

100 (6%)

0 (11%)

Sipson 241 25% 0 (31%)

100 (101%)

-24 (-33%)

200 (25%)

0 (0%)

Stanwell 1,682 12% 200 (20%)

400 (36%)

-10 (-1%)

800 (9%)

200 (12%)

Stanwell Moor 41 3% -2 (-2%)

0 (8%) -9 (-11%)

-33 (-3%)

100 (55%)

West Drayton 3,510 21% 400 (30%)

700 (41%)

100 (5%)

2200 (21%)

100 (7%)

Heathrow inner study area

18,826 10% 1900 (13%)

5100 (31%)

-99 (-1%)

8500 (7%)

3400 (17%)

London 651,060 8% 32300 (5%)

142400 (21%)

15300 (3%)

326700 (6%)

134400 (15%)

South East 446,075 5% -1012 (0%)

110600 (16%)

-25383 (-4%)

108200 (2%)

253700 (17%)

England 2,606,974 5% 66500 (2%)

654300 (16%)

-190808 (-5%)

707000 (2%)

1370000 (16%)

6.1.5 This identifies that:

1. The overall population of the inner study area has risen by 18,826 or 10% between 2011 and 2017, while the total population of the nine districts of the wider study area has risen by 80,296 or 5%

2. The population of London has risen by 8% and the population of both the South East and England as a whole rose by 5%



3. The greatest percentage rises within the inner study area have been in Longford (95, 38%), Harmondsworth (591, 32%), Harlington (1,148, 25%), West Drayton (3,510, 21%) and Cranford Cross (319, 20%)

4. It should be noted that for some of these areas the absolute rise is still low. Figures for smaller areas are likely to have wider confidence intervals. The increase in West Drayton likely reflects development including the occupation of the new Drayton Garden Village area

5. In general, there has been a slight increase in the proportion of under-16s in the study areas, a much smaller increase in the proportion of over-75s and a slight decrease in the proportion of working-age (16-74) residents. This tends to be the case in particular in London areas, and less so in non-London areas.

Ethnicity

6.1.6 According to the APS for the 12 months ending September 2018, 64.1% of residents aged 16 and over the wider study area identify as belonging to white ethnic groups while 35.6% of residents identify as belonging to Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) groups. The number of residents aged 16 and over identifying as white increased by 1% between 2011 and 2017/18 while the number identifying as BAME increased by 13%. The number of BAME residents has risen most rapidly in the London Borough of Hillingdon, with a 31,500 or 40% increase in the number of BAME residents. The largest BAME group in the wider study area comprises residents identifying as Indian, Pakistani or Bangladeshi (225,700 residents in 2017/18).



Table 6.2: Ethnicity (Annual Population Survey 2017/18 and Census 2011)

Area White (16+) BAME (16+) 95% conf. interval of %

no. (+/-)

White change since 2011

BAME change since 2011


148,700 (52.3%)

134,000 (47.1%)

7.3 8,700 (6%)

4500 (3%)


126,100 (53.2%)

110,400 (46.6%)

6.1 -12,000 (-9%)

31,500 (40%)


118,300 (53.3%)

102,700 (46.3%)

7.7 9,600 (9%)

9,000 (10%)

Elmbridge Borough

98,400 (92.1%) 8,400 (7.9%) 5.5 4,400 (5%)

-600 (-6%)

Runnymede Borough

64,500 (87.8%) 9,000 (12.2%) 8.2 4,800 (8%)

2,100 (30%)

Slough Borough

48,200 (43.9%) 61,400 (56%) 4.4 -4,400 (-8%)

7,400 (14%)


46,200 (84.8%) 8,300 (15.2%) 8.8 -400 (-1%)

700 (9%)

Spelthorne Borough

67,700 (88.9%) 8,500 (11.1%) 8.5 -1,500 (-2%)

-400 (-4%)


103,300 (88.5%)

13,400 (11.5%) 2.6 1,700 (2%)

-900 (-6%)

Wider study area

821,500 (64.1%)

456,100 (35.6%)

2.1 10,900 (1%) 53,200 (13%)

South East 6,618,800 (91.1%)

637,600 (8.8%) 0.6 200,900 (3%) 62,900 (11%)

London 4,432,300 (62.2%)

2,681,800 (37.6%)

1.1 298,300 (7%) 266,600 (11%)

England 38,360,100 (86%)

6,177,000 (13.9%)

0.3 908,000 (2%) 639,500 (12%)

6.1.7 Modelled projections of ethnicity are available for London boroughs, produced by

the GLA based on projections and housing development. These can be compared to the estimates of change above. Unlike the APS, these cover all ages (including under-16s). These projections indicate that the number of residents identifying as belonging to BAME groups has risen in the London parts of the wider study area, particularly in the London Borough of Hillingdon:



Table 6.3: Ethnicity for London boroughs (GLA, 2017)

Area Total population

(2018)

White (2018) BAME (2018) White change since 2011

BAME change since 2011


350,790 163,340 (47%) 187,450 (53%) -2,478 (-1%)

14,819 (9%)


309,900 161,000 (52%) 148,900 (48%) -5,031 (-3%)

40,995 (38%)


278,270 134,480 (48%) 143,790 (52%) 3,975 (3%) 20,338 (16%)

London 9,006,340 5,125,290 (57%)

3,881,050 (43%)

237,855 (5%) 594,544 (18%)

6.1.8 One measure of ethnicity at the local level is provided by the Annual School Census, which collects data at school level for the ethnicity of pupils. Data for primary school pupils in the inner study area can be used as a proxy for changes in local ethnicity, as pupils in primary schools tend to travel shorter distances than secondary school pupils. This data is only available for state-funded schools. Data from the latest Annual School Census for the 2017/18 school year indicates that 29.1% of pupils in inner study area primary schools were identified as white, while 70.2% were identified as BAME and 0.8% were not classified (as this question was voluntary). Figure 11.2.1, (Annex B) shows the inner study area schools with the highest proportions of BAME students. This data suggests a rise in the proportion of BAME children in the inner study area. In 2011, 66% of inner study area residents aged 5-9 were identified as belonging to BAME groups.

6.1.9 LPA-level data on ethnicity of primary and secondary school pupils is shown below, which provides a recent indication of ethnicity data at LPA level. The proportion of BAME pupils at both primary and secondary levels is highest in Slough Borough and lowest in Surrey.



Table 6.4: Ethnicity in wider study area primary and secondary schools (Annual School Census, 2018)

Area Primary schools Secondary schools

Total White Total BAME Total White Total BAME


10,554 (32%) 17,616 (53%) 5,456 (28%) 10,919 (56%)


12,437 (41%) 15,576 (51%) 8,669 (42%) 9,848 (48%)


8,760 (35%) 13,405 (53%) 5,686 (32%) 9,728 (55%)

Slough Borough 5,339 (30%) 11,764 (66%) 2,963 (24%) 8,467 (70%)


7,554 (71%) 2,834 (27%) 7,896 (75%) 2,402 (23%)

Buckinghamshire 32,870 (72%) 12,138 (27%) 25,741 (69%) 10,835 (29%)

Surrey 76,076 (82%) 14,635 (16%) 49,666 (83%) 8,546 (14%)

London 313,917 (42%) 383,474 (51%) 198,007 (39%) 272,288 (53%)

South East 592,596 (81%) 124,172 (17%) 416,694 (82%) 82,907 (16%)

England 3,485,200 (74%) 1,097,244 (23%) 2,416,841 (74%) 732,745 (22%)

Note: totals may not sum to 100% because of students who are unclassified or for whom the information was refused.

Households 6.1.10 The ONS’s mid-2017 household estimates can be directly compared with data

from the 2011 Census at all spatial levels. The following table sets out the changes in terms of households, by type, in LPAs in the wider study area since 2011.



Table 6.5: 2016 household estimates, types and changes, 2011-16 (ONS sub-national household projections, 2016-based)

Area Total households, 2016 (‘000s)

Change 2011 - 16

Total households

One person households

Households with dependent children

Other household types


125 0.7% 0.3% 1.1% 0.6%

Elmbridge Borough

54 2.2% 2.6% 1.2% 2.7%


107 6.6% 2.8% 10.1% 6.0%


99 4.4% 1.8% 5.8% 5.1%

Runnymede Borough

34 4.4% 6.5% 4.0% 3.3%

Slough Borough

53 5.1% 9.1% 6.6% -0.2%


27 3.6% 7.4% 1.4% 2.9%

Spelthorne Borough

40 1.6% 1.5% 0.8% 2.3%

Royal Borou

60 3.3% 5.5% 2.8% 2.1%



Area Total households, 2016 (‘000s)

Change 2011 - 16

Total households

One person households

Households with dependent children

Other household types

gh of Windsor and Maidenhead

Wider study area

600 3.5% 3.3% 4.4% 2.9%

England

22,885

3.7% 5.9% 0.6% 4.4%

Source: ONS sub-national household projections, 2016-based

6.1.11 This identifies that:

1. the total number of households in the wider study area grew by 3.5% or approximately 20,400 between 2011 and 2016. This growth is marginally slower than in England overall (3.7%)

2. In particular, households with dependent children grew by 4.4% or approximately 8,600 in the wider study area – a much higher rise than in England overall (0.6%)

3. One-person households grew by 3.3% in the wider study area (compared to 5.9% in England overall), while other household types grew by 2.9% (compared to 4.4% in England). This may reflect the slightly lower proportion of older people in the wider study area compared to England, and could also reflect housing trends and slower household formation

4. Household growth was particularly strong in Slough with total growth of 6.6% (circa 2,600), and relatively low in Ealing (0.7% or circa 850)

5. Growth in the number of households with dependent children was strongest in the London Borough of Hillingdon (10.1% or circa 3,600) and lowest in Spelthorne Borough (0.8% or circa 100).

Dwellings 6.1.12 The total stock of dwellings in the inner study area grew by approximately 5,100 or

7% between 2011 and 2017, according to Council Tax and Census data. Figure 11.5, Volume 2 shows where changes in dwelling stock have occurred within the inner study area since 2011. Areas with particularly high growth include Hounslow



town centre and parts of West Drayton (containing the new Drayton Garden Village development). This corresponds to high rates of development in these areas.

Tenure 6.1.13 According to estimates of tenure by LPA for 2017, within the wider study area as a

whole 17% of homes are in the social housing sector (including homes for various forms of affordable rent and shared ownership), while 83% are in the private sector (either rented or owner-occupied).

6.1.14 The proportion of social homes has fallen by 1 percentage point since 2011. This decline has been greatest in Slough Borough, where the proportion of homes in the social housing sector has declined by 3 percentage points. This proportion has risen by 1 percentage point in the London Borough of Hounslow, although this figure should be treated with caution due to missing data for some previous years.

Table 6.6: Tenure structure and changes since 2011 (MHCLG Live Table 100 and Census 2011)

Dwellings, 2017 Change in proportion 2011-17 (percentage point)

Area Total social

Total private Social % Private % Social Private


23,590 108,500 18% 82% -2% 2%

Elmbridge Borough

5,580 51,710 10% 90% -1% 1%


18,210 90,720 17% 83% -1% 1%


26,560 73,270 27% 73% 1% -1%

Runnymede Borough

4,510 30,840 13% 87% -1% 1%

Slough Borough 10,490 43,900 19% 81% -3% 3%


3,550 25,450 12% 88% -2% 2%

Spelthorne Borough

5,500 36,830 13% 87% -1% 1%



Dwellings, 2017 Change in proportion 2011-17 (percentage point)

Area Total social

Total private Social % Private % Social Private


7,810 55,520 12% 88% -2% 2%

Wider study area 105,800 516,740 17% 83% -1% 1%

6.1.15 This data is based on housing completions and does not break down private sector housing into rented or owned tenures. Data from the English Housing Survey for 2016-17 suggests that the private rented sector has risen by 14% (or approximately 86,700 households) in the South East and 20% (173,300) in Greater London.

6.1.16 The private rented sector now comprises 30% of all households in London (up from 26% in 2011) and 19% in the South East (up from 18% in 2011). The number of social rented homes grew by 1.2% in the South East over this period and fell by 1.5% in London. The number of owner-occupied homes in London grew by 1.3% in London and 4.5% in the South East.

6.1.17 This data would suggest that the private rented sector in the inner study area has likely grown since 2011, with areas of significant development such as West Drayton and Hounslow Town Centre likely to accommodate a significant portion of growth. If a rise of households in the private rented sector of 14% (as in the South East) were applied to the inner study area, there would be about 19,000 private rented households in 2016/17 – a rise of 2,300. If a rise of 20% (as in London) were applied, there would be about 20,000 private rented households – a rise of 3,300.

6.1.18 More detailed data on private tenure breakdowns for London areas only is available for 2016, via the APS (and analysis undertaken by the GLA). However, these figures should be treated with caution due to relatively large confidence intervals (which explain the differences between this data and the more robust MHCLG data shown above). What this data does suggest is growth in the private rented sector in the London Borough of Hillingdon and London Borough of Ealing in particular, with the data suggesting an increase of approximately 6,300 private rented households in the London Borough of Hillingdon and 2,900 households in the London Borough of Hounslow. It also suggests a rise in the number of owner-occupied households in the London Borough of Hillingdon and London Borough of Hounslow.



Table 6.7: Tenure for London boroughs (Annual Population Survey, GLA analysis and Census 2011)

Households, 2016 Change 2011-16 (%)

Area Total Owner-occupied

Social rented*

Private rented

Owner-occupied

Social rented

Private rented


116,800

52% (61,300)

14% (16,600)

33% (38,900)

-3% -33% 8%


112,500 62% (69,800)

15% (17,200)

23% (25,500)

11% -5% 33%


94,400 53% (50,500)

22% (21,000)

24% (22,900)

6% -12% -2%

*The MHCLG data on social housing in the previous table is likely to be more robust and accurate



ANNEX A STAKEHOLDER FEEDBACK AND RECORD OF CHANGES

This section is to record responses received from the HSPG participants on this appendix, and to set out how these inform ongoing data collection work.

Authority / Group

Response Action arising

London Borough of Hounslow Council

Response submitted 18/03/19 via email. London Borough of Hounslow: 1. Welcomes feedback from best-

practices learning 2. Suggests a number of datasets that

could be used for data on disabilities, including recipients of Disability Living Allowance, Primary support reason for short and long-term (SALT) support, and Pupil primary need from Statements or Education, health and care plan (EHCP)

3. Suggests with regards to ethnicity, to consider using the school population SFR28-2017 Local Authority tables

4. Requests that Table 1.2 note several data sets and sources of information, including Hounslow Insights, Hounslow Local Plan/Economic Assessment evidence bases, Hounslow Regeneration and Economic Development Strategy, and forthcoming Hounslow JSNA

5. Supports the proposed methodology provided limitations and assumptions are clearly explained and states no additional comments to make to the draft statement of principles for examination at present.

We welcome the feedback and note the following:

1. In terms of Disability Living Allowance, this benefit is currently being phased out. This document has avoided using measures that are being phased out, because while they can provide a snapshot they cannot be usefully compared to previous years. Data on pupil support needs is a useful data source, but for the purpose of updating Census data it is considered to be excessively granular and does not clearly compare to Census data on disability

2. LPA-level data on ethnicity from the Annual School Census has been added

3. The Hounslow datasets mentioned have been reviewed and noted in this appendix

4. The forthcoming 2019 Hounslow JSNA is welcomed and will be reviewed when it is published

5. We welcome support for the methodology of this paper and note that limitations and assumptions will be explained where necessary.

Spelthorne Borough Council

Response submitted 22/03/19 via email. This response included a number of general comments on engagement and on PEIR work. With regards to this note, it noted several potential datasets and information sources that could be used:

We welcome the feedback, including the general comments on engagement and the community PEIR workstream; these will be taken into account and responded to in detail. In terms of comments on this appendix:

1. We have added the Surrey-I database to Table 1.2 and used it where appropriate



Authority / Group

Response Action arising

1. Demographic data: suggest using Surrey-i database for a range of data on Surrey, as well as potentially Experian Mosaic data

2. Housing – suggest reviewing the Spelthorne New Local Plan Evidence base including the Spelthorne and Runnymede SHMA for information on housing in Spelthorne Borough. Notes that an updated SHMA will be published in May 2019. Also suggest reviewing the English Housing Survey and government data on Affordable Housing Supply

3. Suggest reviewing the Spelthorne Authority Monitoring Report and the Spelthorne Economic Strategy for information on the local economy and local housing and commercial development

4. Suggest using the IMD 2015 Explorer published by MHCLG and the Surrey interactive map for information on deprivation at LPA level.

5. Notes that the assessment does not consider wider quality of life measure. In particular, Spelthorne Borough Council is concerned about noise pollution and its wider effects on health and quality of life. Spelthorne Borough Council is also concerned about air quality and asks that it not be considered in isolation from community assessments

6. Suggests consideration be given to community cohesion including community safety

7. Suggests reviewing lessons learned from Heathrow Terminal 5 construction.

to access information on Surrey. This note also draws on much of the source information for Surrey-i, such as ONS statistics

2. While acknowledging that Experian Mosaic data can provide useful insights, we have ultimately decided not to use it in this appendix as it does not directly update Census datasets crucial for the PEIR assessment.

3. Relevant parts of the Spelthorne emerging Local Plan evidence base have been reviewed while preparing this report. The 2019 SHMA update will be reviewed when it is published. Authority Monitoring Reports and Spelthorne Economic Strategy have also been reviewed for context

4. It is fully agreed that deprivation and the IMD are important insights into local communities. Chapter 11: Community and this appendix have considered these, and a further and more detailed assessment on deprivation and inequality has been carried out (Appendix 11.3: Effects on socio-economic deprivation, inequality and low-income groups, Volume 3)

5. In terms of wider quality of life, Heathrow Airport has committed in ‘Heathrow 2.0: Our plan for sustainable growth’ to develop a means of measuring and understanding the baseline and drivers of quality of life, in collaboration with local stakeholders including HSPG. This process is underway and Spelthorne Borough Council will continue to be consulted. The PEIR process will also include assessments of elements such as noise and health, including in-combination and cumulative effects

6. Information on the construction of Terminal 5 and lessons learned will feed into the assessment, including information on the construction workforce.



ANNEX B FIGURES

Longford

Heston

Stanwell Bedfont

Poyle

Hayes

Harmondsworth

Iver and Richings ParkWest Drayton

Stanwell Moor

Harlington

Feltham North

Cranford

Hounslow (West and Heath)

Colnbrook

Cranford Cross

Hounslow (Central and South)

SipsonBrands Hill

500000 500500 501000 501500 502000 502500 503000 503500 504000 504500 505000 505500 506000 506500 507000 507500 508000 508500 509000 509500 510000 510500 511000 511500 512000 512500 513000 513500 514000 514500 515000 515500 51600016

9500

1700

0017

0500

1710

0017

1500

1720

0017

2500

1730

0017

3500

1740

0017

4500

1750

0017

5500

1760

0017

6500

1770

0017

7500

1780

0017

8500

1790

0017

9500

1800

0018

0500

1810

0018

1500

1820

0018

2500

1830

0018

3500

1840

00

This d rawing m ay contain Ord nanc e Surve y Maste rm ap and Raste r Data.OS Cop yright Acknowle d ge m e nt.Re p rod uc e d b y p e rm ission of Ord nanc e Surve y on b e half of HMSO. © Crown Cop yright and d atab ase right. All rights re se rve d . He athrow Airp ort Lim ite d , O.S. Lic e nc e N um b e r 100020071.

0 550 1,100 1,650 2,200 2,750 3,300275

Me tre s

He athrow Exp ansion Proje ctHe athrow Proje ct N o.

Scale

V e rsion

Drawn By Chk/Ap p rove d Drawn Date Status

1:55,000

17/05/2019

ISO A3 Land scap e

HEP53-XX-GA-XXX-360244

Title

© He athrow Airp ort Lim ite d

Location-Le ve l-Sub Se rie s/Syste m -Id e ntifie r

Proje ct N am e

Com p any

Docum e nt Unc ontrolle d W he n Printe d

Figure 11.2.1: Ethnic ity of p rim ary school p up ils – com m unity inne r stud y are a

[

HEP53

1:55,000Scale

Quod KOS W ood FIN AL

1.0

Draft De ve lop m e nt Conse nt Ord e r lim its

Com m unity are asPrimary schools (sized by total pupils)% p rim ary sc hool p up ils id e ntifie d as Blac k, Asian orMinority Ethnic (Annual Sc hool Ce nsus, 2018)

20% - 28%

28% - 43%

43% - 50%

50% - 72%

72% - 84%

84% - 95%

appendix 11.2 volume 3, chapter 11: community€¦ · table of tables table 3.1: existing baseline...

Documents