appendix 7: designing an education policy simulation designing an education simulation...

REPORT ON THE EFA POLICY SIMULATION WORKSHOP May 12-16, 2003, Barbados

Appendix 7: Designing an Education Policy Simulation Designing an Education Simulation Model By CHANG, Gwang-Chol1 INTRODUCTION This paper has been prepared on the following premises: (i) a simulation model is a management tool serving the purpose of strategic planning and contributing to informed policy dialogue; (ii) the term “sector” comprises not only the levels and types of education traditionally covered under the heading of formal education system, but also other types of less formal education that the concept of Education for All (EFA) refers to. As a reference material, this paper introduces some basic concepts, techniques and current practices of strategic planning in the education and human resource development sector. And as a tool of scenario planning, it explains how a simulation model can contribute to developing coherent policies, designing credible plans and improving transparency in sector planning and management. It describes the key components and steps in the design of a simulation model, and includes a list of indicators most frequently used in policy simulation, in the Annex. A. STRATEGIC PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT Planning is about setting a direction for a system and then guiding that system to follow that direction. The plan can be defined as a set of decisions about what to do, why, and how to do it. There are many forms of planning with several types of activities involved in this process. Different people may use different terms for the same type of activities or apply different definitions for the same term. They may also carry them out in a different order. A.1. Definition of Strategic Planning Over the past decades, public administrations have had to deal and cope with increasing uncertainty and changing environments. The interconnection of these environments has also grown progressively. Any decision in a sector should now be weighed in the light of its effects within the sector as well as outside the system. Compared to other socio-economic sectors, education involves more complex and multidimensional problems. Faced with financial constraints, many governments are not able to meet the broad social demands without adopting restrictive measures. In the dynamics of educational management of student flows, as well as that of public 1 Programme Specialist, Section for Support to National Educational Strategies, Division of Educational Policies and Strategies, UNESCO.

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finance, they have to make difficult decisions to regulate the utilisation of resources, without leading to serious disruptions and dysfunctions. The uncertainty in educational development and the interdependence of the decisions in the sector require taking a holistic approach. In short, it has become increasingly difficult to plan and do everything that needs to be done. One ought to make choices, often tough ones, through a decision-making process. This process can be called strategic planning2. Strategic planning is “a disciplined effort to produce fundamental decisions and actions that shape and guide” what a system is, where it is going and how it is going to get there (Bryson 1995). Strategic planning can support strategic thinking and serve strategic management. 3 A strategic education plan is the physical product of the strategic planning process and embodies the guiding directions on how to run an education system within a larger national development framework. Strategic planning contributes to managing a system strategically. Like any other systems, education has inputs, processes, outputs and outcomes (see also Figure 2 in Section C.2). Inputs to the system include resources such as teachers, buildings, equipment, books, etc. These inputs go through a process (throughput) where they are mixed (input mix), combined and/or moved along to achieve results. Outputs are tangible results produced by processes in the system, such as the number of graduates or learning achievements. Another kind of result is outcomes, or benefits for the students, their families and/or the society as well. Systems are often analyzed in terms of relevance, efficiency, effectiveness, impact and sustainability: for example, one can wonder whether the inputs to the education system are relevant, to what extent the processes are efficient and how far the anticipated outputs are effectively produced. Outcomes and results will be analyzed in terms of their impact and sustainability.

2 In the past, planners usually referred to the term “long-range planning”. More recently, they use the term “strategic planning”. Although many still use these terms interchangeably, strategic planning and long-range planning differ. Long-range planning is generally considered to mean the development of a plan aimed at achieving a policy or set of policies over a period of several years, with the assumption that the projection of (or extrapolation from) the past and current situation is sufficient to ensure the implementation of the proposed activities. While long-range planning assumes that this environment is stable, strategic planning assumes that a system must be responsive to a dynamic and changing environment. This term is meant to capture the strategic (comprehensive, holistic, thoughtful or fundamental) nature of this type of planning. 3 Strategic management consists of three elements: (i) formulation of an organization’s mission and policies in light of evolving external factors; (ii) development of competitive strategies to implement the policies; (iii) creation of an organizational structure which will deploy resources to successfully carry out these strategies.

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A.2. Three Stages of Strategic Planning There are a variety of terminologies used in strategic planning and a variety of approaches to carry it out. One cannot say that there is a “single perfect way” to conduct strategic planning. Each institution has its own particular interpretation of the approaches and activities in strategic planning. However, there is a generic process of typical stages that includes a similar nature of activities carried out in a similar sequence. In the education sector, three stages and upstream works of strategic planning are commonly undertaken: (i) system analysis; (ii) policy setting; (iii) action planning:

i. Sector Analysis This stage of strategic analysis consists in conducting data collection on and critical analysis of the aspects relating to (and surrounding) the education sector. Planners carefully review how the system functions (internal dynamics) and examine various driving forces behind the education system (the environment of which education is a part), e.g. macro-economic and socio-demographic situations and developments. Planners look at the above aspects from the perspective of the system’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (better known as the SWOT analysis) regarding the educational development. 4 They also examine the relevance, efficiency and effectiveness of the system’s inputs, processes and outputs. This will help identify the critical issues, identify challenges and think out remedial actions. Some call this phase of education sector analysis (ESA) the diagnostic work. Sector review, system analysis, diagnosis, etc. are also used interchangeably. Wide consultations with stakeholders will contribute to form a common understanding of the problems and issues. Lack of reliable information and relevant analysis often lead to misunderstanding and confusion among stakeholders. A tool/mechanism should be set up in order to provide relevant data and information for discussions, which will allow people “to sing on the same song sheet”.

ii. Policy and Strategy Setting Careful (and critical) analysis of the educational system undertaken during the sector analysis leads to questions about what the education sector must do in order to address major issues, challenges and opportunities. These questions include what overall results (policies or strategic goals) the system should

4 Some countries undertake this sector analysis after they have prepared their policy statements. Others conduct the analysis before formulating the policies.

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achieve and the overall methods (or strategies) to implement these policies. This stage of strategic planning is called policy formulation. Policymaking (or policy setting) can be authoritarian or democratic. Participatory policy formulation requires not only the participation of the stakeholders in the design of policies and strategies but also the availability of a number of relevant information and policy options/alternatives that can allow for evidence-based policy dialogue and consensus building. Goals, policies or results can, for example, be worded to be specific, measurable, agreed upon, realistic, timely, extending the capabilities of those working to achieve the goals, and rewarding to them (SMART or SMARTER as acronym). Using the SMART tool can help adjust the existing educational policies and strategies or update them in the light of new developments.

iii. Action Planning Action planning is a process whereby one will translate the policy statements (options and strategies) into executable, measurable and accountable actions (EMA). Action planning includes specifying objectives, results, outputs, strategies, responsibilities and timelines (what, what for, how, who and when). The output of this process is the preparation of a plan of action. The plan of action is a sort of “business” plan 5 (sometimes called operational plan, implementation plan or operating plan), which describes in a certain degree of detail the actions required, inputs needed and resources required over the next years. It also includes methods to monitor and evaluate the planned activities. For the purpose of result-based planning, Logical Framework (LogFrame) is also widely used when preparing development projects, programmes and plans, thus contributing to results-based programming, management and monitoring in the education sector. Often, ministries will develop short-term plans (1 to 2 years) for each sub-sector, department, etc., which can be called work plans. Usually, projections of resource requirements are included in strategic, operating or work plans. Resources can be human, technical, physical and financial. Information on financial resources include: the cost estimates required for the implementation of the plan, the budget likely to be available in the future and the funding gaps (additional funding) to fill in for each of the years included in the span of time, giving particular attention to the first years. Plans also depict how the funds will be mobilized and spent (recurrent budget, capital budget, project budgets, etc).

5 In addition to the strategic plan or quite often as part of it, one will have to prepare an action plan of medium range. This rolling medium-term plan (in general, 3-5 years according to countries’ planning practices) will permit mid-term updates and necessary adjustments to long-term policies and strategies in place.

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In the context of strategic planning, policy simulation is widely used when preparing education sector development plans or programmes, as a tool for scenario planning and resource projections. Since there are too many actors, interests and the interrelations between these in the education sector, it is necessary to have not only a reliable information system, but also an objective forecasting tool to facilitate policy consultations regarding financial constraints and their consequences on education and national development.

B. POLICY SIMULATION AND RESOURCE PROJECTIONS As explained in the previous section, the purpose of a plan of action is to express in operational terms the national orientations which were defined at the formulation stage of the sector’s general policy. In the education sector, this plan must specify the actions, activities and inputs to be implemented in a strategic, co-ordinated, coherent and holistic way during the planned period. It must also include resource requirements to achieve the educational policy, including financial estimates of recurrent and capital expenditures. Planners use a variety of tools for the definition of future actions and resource projections. There are also different techniques of costing and budgeting in the planning of educational development. Most common of these is the simulation modelling technique. B.1. Simulation and Scenario Planning Simulation modelling is a tool par excellence for scenario planning. It is used to test the viability of an education development strategy and to propose alternatives that can help cope with dynamic and changing environments. Scenario planning in education is a non-predictive means of examining a variety of possible futures for the development of the whole education system or the specific issues that one is interested in.6 The simulation method is widely used as a strategic planning and management tool allowing for democratic discussion and reflection. The scenarios, designed as results of a long process of trial and error by taking into consideration the policy options and the technical feasibilities as well as the financial constraints, feed into constructive policy and social consultations about a common future. A simulation model can help design a comprehensive financial framework. In the process of constructing a development scenario, the simulation model is first used as a 6 Unlike traditional forecasting or rigid planning techniques, scenario planning can help present alternative images instead of simply extrapolating “fixed” trends from the present. One will need to examine critical uncertainties, i.e. those issues whose outcome is both undetermined and vital for the development of education over the next ten or fifteen years.

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tool of projection, and then as a tool of prospection, and finally as a tool of forecasting (see Section C.3). One of the scenarios will provide a reference for designing the resource framework of an action plan. As a result, the resources required that are anticipated for the future will show if the plan is credible, realistic and sustainable. Policy simulation contributes to ensuring holistic educational development, coherence in the development of sub-sectors, and a better understanding of the implications of the policies and strategies, by facilitating the identification of pedagogical and institutional inputs, as well as the financial resources which these imply. Three stages or types of application of a policy simulation are described below, i.e. educational policy formation, medium-term planning, and budgeting:

• The simulation exercise serves the formation of educational policies, which is complex by nature. A simulation model can contribute useful information to evidence-based policy dialogue and consensus building. It is used as a tool for testing the feasibility of reform or development options of the sector. It allows, at the preliminary planning stage, to anticipate the pedagogical, physical and financial implications of the goals and policy options retained for long-term periods, thus contributing to designing feasible and coherent policies. This type of application corresponds to the first and second stages of strategic planning (cf. Section A).

• The simulation model provides information on actions, inputs and resources. It

is used as a forecasting tool following the adoption of sector reform and/or development options. It makes it possible to determine the pedagogical, physical and financial implications of educational objectives. As a systemic forecasting tool, it helps in considering the dynamics of the educational system and the detection of the interrelations of a number of parameters which influence the operation and the improvement of educational services. It also provides the information on the necessary educational inputs and the monitoring and evaluation indicators on planned actions. This type of application corresponds to the third stage of strategic planning.

• As early as the plan’s preparation phase, the simulation can make it possible to

establish an upstream forecast of recurrent expenditures and investments for the education sector in accordance with educational policy orientations. The government, as a result, can have advance information on the annual costs required to implement its reform and development plan, foresee the budgetary gap in relation to the possibility of State financing in a given period, and identify the fields for which additional resources should be sought from the national private sector and/or from external partners.

B.2. Projection of Resources In a plan, one ought to identify development actions and estimate required resources

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(human, technical, physical and financial). A simulation can contribute immensely to the design of a sector development plan or a plan of action. In particular, it provides the information on the necessary educational actions, inputs and evaluation indicators. Educational inputs requirements. Educational inputs needs are estimated on the basis of the quantitative and qualitative objectives expressed. The simulation makes it possible to determine the nature and scale of these inputs per year for the period considered. It provides indicative information on school enrolments as well as the human, physical and financial means to mobilise, in order to carry out development actions. Presented below are some categories of educational inputs whose evaluation is carried out thanks to computer simulation.

• Personnel. The simulation makes it possible to estimate the number of teaching and non-teaching personnel required (managerial and supervisory staff, administrative and service personnel, technical and maintenance workers, etc.) and to foresee recruitment needs (per year, per region, and by education level) while taking into account staff attrition. It also enables the evaluation of the training needs of these personnel, both at pre-service and in-service training level. The new requirements for teachers for a given year will indicate to the educational authorities the need to take adequate measures many years in advance (this varies according to countries).

• School buildings. On the basis of the number of students and the parameters of

pedagogical management, the simulation has the potential to evaluate the number of buildings to build, on a given time-horizon. It also indicates the expenditures necessary for the purchase of necessary equipments and maintenance expenses of all kinds. The required number of classrooms and other spaces as well as the needs for new buildings are provided by the model per year and by region for all levels of teaching.

• Teaching and learning materials. A simulation can allow to estimate the future

needs for textbooks and other teaching aids and to indicate the requirements for the production and the distribution of these materials, in accordance with the national policy in this field. It can also aid to foresee necessary actions to acquire and/or renew the materials, so as to meet the curricular reform and to evaluate the recurrent costs resulting from this.

C. DESIGNING A POLICY SIMULATION MODEL C.1. Different Types of Simulation There exist two classifications of approaches in the design of simulation models. These classifications do not preclude the existence of a number of variants and subcategories which were designed by countries according to their specific needs.

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• Generic model and country-specific model There are two types of simulation models (or approaches) for programming educational development: the generic models which are sometimes called “ready-to-use” models and country-specific models, also called “tailor-made” models. The so-called generic approach is used in designing a simulation model which contains components common to a majority of education systems. It does not correspond therefore to any system or to any given country but represents a virtual education system. Adapted in a limited way, this model makes it possible to approximately indicate the pedagogical, physical, and financial consequences of main policy orientations. It can be useful at the stage of pre-designing education policy options and in facilitating consensus building on the main educational development goals and orientations7. The second approach is the development of specific simulation applications. Its use is generally adopted to define detailed educational development options, in particular at the preparation stage of action plans. The application designed at this stage of post-definition of educational policy takes into account the structure and specificities of a given country’s education system. Adapted to a given country, this kind of model cannot be used by another without a major reorganization and meticulous adaptation.

• Budgetary model and demographic model Another classification relates to two types of simulation models which planners call “budgetary” model and “demographic” model, with their multiple variants. These two types of models are designed according to two different methodological approaches: the first uses the national budget for education as the decision variable, and another, where educational expenditures are but the results of the simulation. In the budgetary model, the planner is first concerned with determining an acceptable budget ceiling in proportion to the State’s general budget. The computer carries out calculations backwards to obtain enrolment targets. In the case of the demographic model, the opposite logic is the one developed. Regarded as independent variables, the enrolment targets are laid down a priori and the computer calculates their corresponding financial budgets as a consequence. C.2. Three Stages of Simulation There are three principal stages to follow in the process of simulation on educational development. These are: the organization of the baseline data to be projected, the 7 The stage of policy definition can be subdivided into two chronological phases: the pre-definition phase, and that of its adoption. The pre-definition of educational policy is a stage during which the policy-makers, in consultation with major decision-makers, set the general educational development orientations.

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definition of hypotheses to be related to the baseline data, and the production of results as the consequence of “cross-tabulation” between hypotheses and baseline data. One can easily note that these three stages of simulation correspond to three stages of strategic planning (See Section A). This parallelism is shown below in table 1. Table 1. Parallelism of strategic planning and policy simulation Stage no. Strategic planning Policy simulation

1 Sector analysis (Diagnosis) Data (Baseline) 2 Policy formulation (Policies) Hypotheses (Policy assumptions) 3 Action planning (Plan of action) Results (Projections)

In developing a simulation model, each of the stages of the above table can be conveniently presented on a worksheet of the spreadsheet application (e.g. MS Excel) in order to enter data and policy assumptions (stages 1 and 2) and to consult the subsequent results (stage 3). This facilitates the verification and the monitoring of related data and information at each stage of the simulation. In other words, the education system (Figure 1) will be displayed as it functions (figure 2) on a spreadsheet application.

Figure 1. Diagram of a system

Inputs Process Outputs (outcomes)Students Input mix EnrolmentsEducational personnel Policy options Requirements Facilities Pedagogical orientations Graduates and performanceMaterials Etc. Etc.Etc.

Contextual factors (macro-economic and social policies and prospects)Administrators (or managers) perspective

Planners’ perspectiveContextual factors (macro-economic and social policies and prospects)

Figure 2, reflecting Figure 1, shows an example of the simplified flows of a simulation model. This model is called demographic model because the starting factor is the school-age population to be enrolled while educational expenditures become the results of the policy options for educating the target population. The opposite is budgetary model where the starting factor is the cost ceiling. One can say that the budgetary model responds to the necessity to control education expenditures, in particular following structural adjustment policies, while the demographic model places the right to education and the satisfaction of social demand at the centre of education policy.

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Figure 1. Simplified chart of the flows of a "demographic" simulation model

Flow direction

Iterative process

Legend: Baseline data Parameters/hypotheses Results

School-age population

School-age population for first grade of

primary education

Intake rate, enrolment ratios and flow rates

School enrolments at

different education levels

Graduates from a cycle or level of education

Different modalities of

resource utilization

Macro-economic

and budgetary indicators

Educational expenditures

(recurrent and

investment)

+ Teachers and other personnel;

+ Classrooms and other

rooms; + Educational materials and

equipment

Let’s examine in detail the three stages of simulation. C.2.1. Baseline data The first stage of simulation is data entry. It consists in establishing and arranging the data of the education sector and those on the macro-economic frame. These can be school, pedagogical, macro-economic or budgetary data. In other words: data on the school-age population, access to and participation in education, the teaching and non-teaching personnel, the pedagogical orientations, the school facilities, the economic development situation, the national education expenditures, etc. Most of the baseline data are those of the base year(s) or the most recent years. The degree of refinement and reliability of a simulation will depend mostly on the quality of these baseline data. If some indispensable data for the construction of a simulation are non-existent or not fully reliable, additional research should be carried out. To this end, planners establish a checklist of data against which they check the availability of the baseline data in order to determine the data gaps to fill in. (See Annex 1a) Demographic data. The demographic data, in particular those of the school-age population which need to be forecast, should be available. These data are available in many countries, but in most cases, they are incomplete and relatively old, sometimes going back more than 10 years. They usually are available in the form of national aggregates by age group, and therefore not detailed enough to meet the information needs of education planners. In case the data are available by age group of five-years, one can use other instruments to disaggregate them, of which the most commonly used are the Sprague multipliers. Macro-economic and budgetary data. In the field of education, macro-economic

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framing consists of analysing the foreseeable evolution of the macro-economic indicators likely to have an impact on educational development. The indicators most usually used and most indispensable are the data on the GDP (or GNP depending on the country), the share of the current educational expenditures (recurrent and investment) in proportion to the GDP and to the national budget (for the recent years as well as the previsions for the coming years), the average annual growth rate of the GDP and the national budget, as well as the maximal share of education expenditures in relation to the budget that a country would be able to afford. Data on students flows. The simulation presupposes the existence of an education management and information system (the acronym is EMIS). The information system provides the data on the basis of which the forecasts are calculated. Other information components necessary to the construction of a simulation, the qualitative data in particular, are provided thanks to thematic or sub-sector studies, or through analyses of the whole education sector. The data essential to the construction of the simulation are those of the student flows of the base year (or the average rates observed during the recent school years), namely: intake rate in first grade of primary education, the promotion, repetition and drop-out rates, transition rate from one cycle to another, as well as the graduation rate from the different education cycles. Pedagogical options in education. Educational planning takes place within the framework defined by the country’s education policy, and includes the pedagogical choices, the organization and management methods of educational services. These pedagogical orientations include, for example, the regulation of student flows (automatic promotion or selection by competition, etc.), the timetables and the use of education personnel, classroom management, the curricula, etc. C.2.2. Policy assumptions Now that the baseline data resulting from the sector analysis (diagnosis) are put together, the next stage is to bring together all the policy goals, objectives and options likely to influence educational development in order to translate them into hypotheses/parameters. This means the pedagogical, policy, organizational and even macro-economic options and choices which constitute the parameters influencing the operation and the development of education. The quantitative objectives most frequently used are the enrolment ratios, intake and flow rates, the supervision ratios (for example, that of pupils:teacher), the utilization rates of the education buildings and the share of education in the national budget. These parameters which can be called education policy hypotheses, are in general widely scattered in policy statements, legislative texts, sector orientation notes and economic and social development plans. Planners often establish a checklist of the policy assumptions that are necessary for simulation, against which they check the availability of these policy-related data in order to determine the policy gaps to fill in. (See Annex 1b)

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Once assembled, the goals/objectives will be classified into decision (independent) variables and result (dependent) variables. The variables which constitute the policy assumptions in a simulation are the decision variables. Table 2 displays a set of sample decision variables used in a simulation model. The second column contains the results that can be generated by the simulation model. Table 2: Type of parameters in primary education used in a simulation model

Independent (decision) Variables

Dependent (result) Variables

Category "students" 1. Intake rate in first grade 2. Flow rate 3. Pupils-class ratio 4. Proportion of multi-grade classes 5. Proportion of double shift classes

1. New entrants in first grade 2. Number of pupils 3. Gross enrolment ratios 4. Number of classes/classrooms 5. Number of multi-grade and/or double shift

classes Category “Teaching and non-teaching personnel”

6. Turnover 7. Attrition rate 8. Supervision rate 9. Proportion of non-teaching personnel

6. Needed teachers and new requirements 7. Other personnel and new requirements 8. Training and recruitment needs 9. Annual attrition of personnel

Category “Cost and Financing” 10. Initial index value 11. Salary scale and other emoluments 12. Budgetary allocations 13. Macro-economic indicators

10. Salary expenses 11. Recurrent expenditures 12. Investment expenditures 13. Evolution of education expenditures

C.2.3. Projection results The projections are the results of the simulation of policy hypotheses in relation to the baseline data. To this end, on a worksheet of a spreadsheet application, planners prepare the required statistical formulas of the indicators for the simulation and ensure the coherence of these formulas. The preparation of formulas (and the application of the projection indicators) requires not only the knowledge of the structure and operation of an education system, but also the mastery of the relations between the hypotheses on the one hand, and of the impact they have on the evolution of the (baseline or projected) data, on the other. Annex 2 presents a number of indicators and their formulas that are most frequently used for the purpose of simulation. In general, the simulation results contain two categories of related information: the first includes the number of students and teachers, the infrastructure and equipments, the learning and teaching materials, and the second relates to their consequences on the budgetary and financial resources.

• First of all, the forecasts are made on enrolments

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The simulation first relates either to the access to or to the participation in education. Two methods are therefore possible to activate the simulation process: one, on the basis of access indicators, such as the intake rate in first grade of a given education level (primary education in general), and the other, on the basis of the enrolment ratio. The two methods (or approaches) have their own advantages and disadvantages.

The approach by apparent intake rate (AIR) is meant to be closer to reality, because it follows the learning process. In this approach, AIR becomes the decision variable, while the gross enrolment ratio (GER) becomes the result. On the other hand, the approach by GER considers the participation in education as the decision variable. The AIR is dependent on the enrolment ratio as well as other flow indicators, such as the promotion and repetition rates. On the basis of the intake rate (AIR) or the enrolment ratio (GER) retained at the level of primary education, it is then necessary to measure the progression of pupils from one grade to another by applying the promotion, repetition and drop-out rates, as well as the transition rate from one cycle to another, to estimate the number of pupils and students per school year and their school grades. This exercise will provide the enrolment projections per year on a simulated period (5, 10 or 15 years), and this by private or public organizing bodies, by gender (girls and boys), by area (rural and urban), etc.

• The enrolment data will make it possible to forecast other inputs On the basis of the number of pupils and students per year, it is now possible to calculate, thanks to the combination of parameters linked to the supervision ratios and the pedagogical organization: the number of teachers, classrooms, textbooks as well as all the other means necessary to the organization of education. The simulated results can calculate not only these requirements or other means, but also the new requirements on personnel and school constructions. The annual forecasts on teachers, classrooms or other pedagogical means are obtained on a worksheet of a spreadsheet application and constitute the annual targets (quantified indicators) to be attained by the education system.

• The input mix will lead to resource projections

The ultimate purpose of a simulation is the quantification of the resources subsequent to decisions in education policy. The simulation results in the projection of quantified human, physical, and financial resources, which will facilitate the policy dialogue concerning the technical and budgetary implications of the decisions taken by the policy authorities.

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The quantitative forecasts of educational development depend not only on the policy objectives, but also on the budgetary and macro-economic projections of the country. If the financial estimates relating to the education sector prove to be too high in relation to the possibilities of economic development projects, planners should start again at the beginning of the process of simulation. In consultation with relevant educational authorities and other actors of the system, they should change the parameters used and search for alternative options for educational development. The methodology of scenario design is explained below.

C.3. Construction of development scenarios The simulation model makes it possible to construct development scenarios on which to base policy dialogue and thereby facilitate the conception of education policy. On the basis of major education policy orientations, several educational development scenarios can be constructed.

The design of a scenario proceeds grosso modo in two stages. At the first stage, the policy orientation documents are analysed to identify the education objectives and options. Once identified, these objectives and options are quantified and transformed into decision variables (also called simulation parameters or hypotheses). The results of the simulation, arising from the application of these parameters, reveal, in general, a big gap between the total cost of the education policy objectives and the country’s financing capabilities during the period concerned. It leads to an exercise to refine policy objectives. The second stage will then be the modification of some decision variables in order to reduce the considerable deficit observed at the previous stage. The final selection of objectives requires the consultations between the principal actors of the given education system. In other words, the baseline and the alternative scenarios are presented and discussed during policy consultations with the view of retaining a reference scenario for the programming of educational development actions. The scenario, which will finally be adopted for education sector development, results from a long process of trial and error that takes into consideration the quantified objectives and pedagogical options, as well as the financial constraints. In the process of constructing a development scenario, the simulation model is first used as a tool of projection in the literal sense of the word, and then as a tool of prospection, and finally as a tool of forecasting. Although there is no single pattern followed in the construction of a development scenario, we can nevertheless identify a commonly used method characterised by the following three principal stages.

• Establishment of a baseline scenario (projection)

The first scenario which we will call a “baseline” scenario will consist of a pure

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and simple projection of past trends. It is about determining the consequences of the current education policy if this will remain unchanged during the planned period. In actual fact, it is an extremely rare case where one is satisfied with, and requires no change in the current policy. This scenario makes it possible to weigh the consequences of the laissez-faire policy, to identify and specify the desirable changes to adopt within the framework of a new sector development scenario.

• The stage of alternative scenarios (prospection)

The second stage consists in developing two or three alternative scenarios8 based on the objectives and parameters resulting from the application of new policies in relation to past trends. These scenarios allow the persons in charge at the policy and technical level to weigh the consequences of adopting the new education options for sector development. These scenarios are developed on the basis of a given macro-economic and budgetary framework.

This stage allows the prospection of options to retain and the verification of the socio-economic and financial sustainability of the education policy objectives considered, in particular by studying the effect of the different combination of parameters, on the evolution of the sector. It is in the course of this stage that the feasibility – or the degree of realism – in the policies and strategies considered, is verified. The objectives and hypotheses are evaluated in terms of financial and budgetary consequences. The results of the different scenarios inform the deliberations and the policy dialogue with the view of reaching a consensus on the objectives of education policy. Once the different options are carefully weighed, one of the scenarios will progressively acquire a certain stability and will result in what is called a reference scenario.

• The definition of the reference scenario (prevision)

The third phase is the adoption of one of the previously considered scenarios, or even a scenario resulting from the combination of several objectives and parameters coming from different sector development hypotheses, examined during the previous phase. Once verified on the policy and technical level, this scenario is refined with the degree of information which is required in the programming of actions. It becomes the reference scenario for the future education plan, making it possible to foresee development actions and the financial resources required.

8 One should not confuse scenarios with variants. The scenario is a collection of options and choices

that are sufficiently reflected on, thus constituting a coherent policy for education development, whereas the variant is a slightly different version of the same scenario. Variants result from the sensitivity tests that are undertaken on a scenario with a view of appraising the implication of one or several secondary variables. The sensitivity tests of variables contribute to the refinement and finalisation of a scenario.

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The plan of action of a country and the projection of inputs and resources are formulated on the basis of this reference scenario of the simulation model. This simulation model should be a country-specific model containing as much country-specific data and policy options as possible in order for the plan of action to be as much realistic and credible as possible.

References BRYSON, J. M. 1995. Strategic Planning for Public and Nonprofit Organizations: A

Guide to Strengthening and Sustaining Organizational Achievement, Revised Edition. Minneapolis, USA.

CHANG, G.C.; RADI, M. 2001. Educational planning through computer simulation. (Education policies and strategies, ED-2001/WS/36.) Paris, UNESCO.

JALLADE, L.; RADI, M.; CUENIN, S. 2001. National education policies and

programmes and international co-operation: What role for UNESCO? (Education policies and strategies, ED-2001/WS/5.) Paris, UNESCO.

UNESCO. 1974. UNESCO Education Simulation Model (ESM.) Social Sciences

Reports and Documents N° 29. Paris, UNESCO.

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Annexes:

Annex 1: Checklists of data and policy assumptions for simulation Annex 1a. Data on current situation 1. Social and macro-economic framework

1.1. Demographic data 1.1.1 Population (general data) 1.1.2 School-age population (by age, at least for primary & secondary education) 1.1.3 Annual growth rate of school-age population

1.2. Economic data 1.2.1 Gross national product (GNP) or gross domestic product (GDP) 1.2.2 Total budget (national and, where possible, regional) 1.2.3 Educational expenditures and their share in the total budget

1.3. Socio-cultural data (to be identified according to country) 2. Data on political, administrative, and institutional aspects of the country

2.1 Structures of the education system (formal and non-formal) 2.2 Organization of education services (de-concentration, decentralisation, etc.) 2.3 Responsibilities (Ministries, communities, other organizing agencies, etc.)

3. Data on school enrolments and their flows

3.1. Data on access to and participation in education 3.1.1 New entrants in first grade of each cycle and type of education (TVE, private education, etc.) 3.1.2 School enrolments at different levels of education 3.1.3 Transition from one cycle (level) to another (absolute numbers or ratios)

3.2. Student flows (promotion, repetition, drop-out rates) 3.3. Data on the disparities in education (by gender, region, minority, etc.)

4. Data on the quality of pedagogical aspects

4.1. Data on the teaching personnel 4.1.1 Number of the different categories of teaching and non-teaching personnel (by level of education – primary, secondary, etc. and by qualification) 4.1.2 Workload (weekly or yearly) or teaching/learning hours 4.1.3 Turnover, training and attrition of teachers

4.2. Pedagogical organization (size of classes, multigrade classes, double shift etc.) 4.3. Pedagogical aids and materials 4.4. Curricula and teaching methods 4.5. Central, regional, local (and/or private) administrations (personnel by category)

5. School facilities

5.1. Number of classrooms and utilization rate 5.2. Number of other rooms and utilization rate (labs, teachers’ offices, latrines, etc.)

6. Cost and financing of education

6.1. Budgetary allocation by level of education and type of expenditures (recurrent & capital) 6.2. Financing by local government and other agencies (recurrent & capital) 6.3. Financing by households and the private sector (recurrent & capital) 6.4. Unit costs (salaries, classroom construction & maintenance, equipment, materials, books, subsidies to regions, communities, etc.) 6.5. External financing (recurrent & capital)

35


1b. Policy goals/objectives (medium and long term hypotheses) Category Primary Secondary Higher Non-

formal • Intake and/or transition rates X X X X • Enrolment ratios X X X • Flow rate (promotion, dropout, etc.) X X X X • Rate of students by subject, etc. X X • Proportion of multi-grade/ double shift classes • Ratio of manuals per student and guides per

teacher X X X

• Students-class (and classroom) ratio and/or students-teacher ratio

X X X X

• Mandatory teaching/learning hours X X • Turnover (and attrition) of teaching and non-

teaching personnel X X X X

• Population (esp. school-age population projections over 10 to 15 years to come)

X X X X

• Unit costs (salaries, classroom construction & maintenance, equipment, materials, books, subsidies to regions, communities, etc.)

X X X X

• GDP growth rate X X X X • Percentage of the budget in proportion to GDP X X X X • Share of education in the budget X X X X

N.B. The crosses (X) were put at the intersection of the levels of education and the corresponding parameters which have to be identified and defined for use during the workshop. Participants will consult policy-makers and the services involved, and will collect the information on the future directions of the system and the country in general (which are to be used as hypotheses for the simulation purpose). These hypotheses are called, in simulation practice, objectives, parameters, target indicators or (independent or dependent) variables.

36


Annex 2: Most frequently used indicators in simulation models: Definitions and formulas9 A. Basic Indicators Enrolment ratios

GROSS ENROLMENT RATIO Definition: Total enrolment in a specific level of education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the eligible official school-age population corresponding to the same level of education in a given school-year. Calculation method: Divide the number of pupils (or students) enrolled in a given level of education regardless of age by the population of the age-group which officially corresponds to the given level of education. Formula:

tah

tht

h PE

GER,

=

Where: t

hGER = Gross Enrolment Ratio at level of education h in school-year t t

hE = Enrolment at the level of education h in school-year t t

ahP , = Population in age-group a which officially corresponds to the level of education h in school-year t NET ENROLMENT RATIO Definition: Enrolment of the official age-group for a given level of education expressed as a percentage of the corresponding population. Calculation method: Divide the number of pupils enrolled who are of the official age-group for a given level of education by the population for the same age-group. Formula:

tah

taht

h PE

NER,

,=

Where: t

hNER = Net Enrolment Ratio at level of education h in school-year t t

ahE , = Enrolment of the population of age-group a at level of education h in school-year t t

ahP , = Population in age-group a, which officially corresponds to level of education h in school-year t

9 Most indicators, their definitions and formulas, presented here are drawn or adapted from those defined by UNESCO, especially its Institute of Statistics.

37


AGE SPECIFIC ENROLMENT RATIO Definition: Percentage of the population of a specific age enrolled, irrespective of the level of education. Calculation method: Divide the number of pupils (or students) of a specific age enrolled in educational institutions at all levels of education by the population of the same age. Formula:

ta

tat

a PE

ASER =

Where: t

aASER = Age Specific Enrolment Ratio of the population of age a in school-year t t

aE = Enrolment of the population of age a in school-year t. t

aP = Population of age a in school-year t

Intake (admission) rates

APPARENT INTAKE RATE Definition: Total number of new entrants in the first grade of primary education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the population at the official primary school-entrance age. Calculation method: Divide the number of new entrants in grade 1, irrespective of age, by the population of official school-entrance age. Formula:

ta

tt

P

NAIR =

Where: tAIR = Apparent Intake Rate in school-year t

tN = Number of new entrants in the first grade of primary education, in school-year t t

aP = Population of official primary school entrance-age a, in school-year t. NET INTAKE RATE Definition: New entrants in the first grade of primary education who are of the official primary school-entrance age, expressed as a percentage of the population of the same age. Calculation method: Divide the number of children of official primary school-entrance age who enter the first grade of primary education by the population of the same age. Formula:

ta

tat

PN

NIR =

Where: tNIR = Net Intake Rate in school-year t.

taN = Number of children of official primary school-entrance age a who enter the first grade of

primary education, in school-year t.

38


t

aP = Population of official primary school-entrance age a, in school-year t.

Flow and transition rates

PROMOTION RATE Definition: The proportion of pupils enrolled in a given grade at a given school-year who will at the beginning of the following school-year, be enrolled in the next higher grade. Calculation method: There are two possible ways of calculating this indicator, depending on the availability of data on the number of promotees by grade. If such data are available, “Formula 1” can be used, in which case, the number of promotees by grade in school-year t+1 is divided by the number of pupils enrolled in the corresponding grade in school-year t. Otherwise, “Formula 2” is used when data on the number of promotees by grade are not available; the number of repeaters by grade in school-year t+1 are deducted from the number of pupils enrolled in the corresponding school-year and the difference is then divided by the number of pupils enrolled in corresponding grade in school-year t. Formulas:

ti

tit

i Ep

p1

1+

+=

or

ti

ti

tit

i ERE

p1

11

1+

++

+ −=

Where:

tip = Promotion Rate at grade i in school-year t

11

++

tip = number of pupils promoted to grade i+1 in school-year t+1

11

++

tiE = number of pupils enrolled in grade i+1 in school-year t+1

11

++

tiR = number of pupils repeating grade i+1 in school-year t+1 t

iE = number of pupils enrolled in grade i, in school-year t. REPETITION RATE Definition: Proportion of pupils from a cohort enrolled in a given grade at a given school-year who study in the same grade in the following school-year. Calculation method: Divide the number of repeaters in a given grade in school-year t+1 by the number of pupils from the same cohort enrolled in the same grade in the previous school-year t. Formula:

ti

tit

i ER

r1+

=

Where:

tir = Repetition Rate at grade i in school-year t

itiR + = number of pupils repeating grade i, in school-year t+1

tiE = number of pupils enrolled in grade i, in school-year t.

39


DROPOUT RATE Definition: It is the proportion of pupils leaving school without completing a given grade in a given school-year expressed as a percentage of those who were enrolled at the same grade in the beginning of the same grade in the beginning of the same school-year. Calculation method: Note that there are two possible ways of calculating this indicator, depending on the availability of data on the number of drop-outs by grade. If such data are available, “Formula 1” can be used, in which case, number of drop-outs by grade in school-year t is divided by the number of pupils enrolled in the corresponding grade in school-year t. Otherwise, “Formula 2” is used when data on the number of dropouts are not available; the number of repeaters and promotees by grade in school-year t+1are deducted from the number of pupils enrolled in the corresponding school-year and the difference is then divided by the number of pupils enrolled in corresponding grade in school-year t. Formula (2):

ti

ti

ti

tit

i EPRE

d)( 1

11 +

++ +−

=

Where:

tid = Dropout Rate at grade i in school-year t

)( 11

1 ++

+ +− ti

ti

ti PRE = number of pupils dropping out from grade i in school-year t

TRANSITION RATES Definition: The number of pupils (or students) admitted to the first grade of a higher level of education in a given year, expressed as a percentage of the number of pupils (or students) enrolled in the final grade of the lower level of education in the previous year. Calculation method: Divide the number of new entrants in the first grade of the specified higher cycle or level of education by the number of pupils who were enrolled in the final grade of the preceding cycle or level of education in the previous school year. Formula:

tnh

th

tht

hh ERE

TR,

11,1

11,1

1,

++

++

+

−=

Where:

thhTR 1, + =Transition rate (from cycle or level of education h to h+1 in school year t)

11,1

++

thE = number of pupils enrolled in the first grade at level of education h+1 in school-year t+1

11,1

++

thR = number of pupils repeating the first grade at level of education h+1 in school-year t+1

tnhE , = number of pupils enrolled in final grade n at level of education h in school year t.

Outputs and efficiency of the system

GROSS COMPLETION RATE Definition: The total number of students completing (or graduating from) the final year of primary or secondary education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the population of the official primary or secondary graduation age.

40


Calculation method: Divide the number of students completing (or graduating from) the final year of primary or secondary education by the population at the official graduation age. Formula:

tah

tht

h PC

GCR,

=

Where: t

hGCR = Gross Completion Rate at level of education h in school-year t t

hC = number of students completing (or graduating from) the final year of primary or secondary education h in school-year t

tahP , = Population at the official graduation age a which officially corresponds to the level of primary

or secondary education h in school-year t In fact, in the absence of information on graduates, the completion rate is often proxied by the following formula (here applied to the primary case):

No. of students in the last primary grade – repeating students GCR (primary) = Population of the official age group for the last primary grade SURVIVAL RATES BY GRADE Definition: Percentage of a cohort of pupils (or students) enrolled in the first grade of a given level or cycle of education in a given school-year who are expected to reach successive grades. Calculation method: Divide the total number of pupils belonging to a school-cohort who reached each successive grade of the specified level of education by the number of pupils in the school-cohort i.e. those originally enrolled in the first grade of primary education. Formula:

kg

m

t

tig

kig E

PSR

∑== 1

,

,

Where: 1

1,1

1,,+

++

+ −= tig

tig

tig REP

i = grade (1, 2, 3,…,n) t = year (1, 2, 3, …,m) g = pupil-cohort.

kigSR , = Survival Rate of pupil-cohort g at grade i for a reference year k

kgE = Total number of pupils belonging to a cohort g at a reference year k

tigP , = Promotees from who would join successive grades i throughout successive years t. k

gEt

iR = Number of pupils repeating grade i in school-year t. COEFFICIENT OF EFFICIENCY Definition: The ideal (optimal) number of pupil-years required (i.e. in the absence of repetition and drop-out) to produce a number of graduates from a given school-cohort for a cycle or level of education expressed as a percentage of the actual number of pupil-years spent to produce the same number of graduates. Input-output ratio, which is the reciprocal of the coefficient of efficiency, is often used as an alternative. N.B. One school-year spent in a grade by a pupil is counted as one pupil-year.

41


Calculation method: Divide the ideal number of pupil-years required to produce a number of graduates from a given school-cohort for the specified level of education, by the actual number of pupil-years spent to produce the same number of graduates. Formula:

+

=

∑∑

∑+

=

+

=

+

=

kn

j

tjg

kn

nj

tjg

kn

nj

tjg

g

jDjG

nGCE

1,,

,

**

*

Where:

gCE = Coefficient of Efficiency for a pupil-cohort g

ngG , = the number of pupils graduating from cohort g in final grade n after n years of study (without repetition)

jgG , = the number of pupils graduating from cohort g in final grade n after j years of study

jgD , = the number of pupils (of the cohort g) dropping out after j years of study k denotes the number of repetitions allowed; n the prescribed normal duration of study for a cycle or level of education; g the pupil-cohort; and j the number of years of study. YEARS-INPUT PER GRADUATE Definition: The estimated average number of pupil-years spent by pupils (or students) from a given cohort who graduate from a given cycle or level of education, taking into account the pupil-years wasted due to drop-out and repetition. N.B. One school-year spent in a grade by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year. Calculation method: Divide the total number of pupil-years spent by a pupil-cohort (graduates plus drop-outs) in the specified level of education by the sum of successive batch of graduates belonging to the same cohort. Formula:

∑

∑∑+

=

+

=

+

=

+

= kn

njjg

kn

jjg

kn

njjg

g

G

jDjGYIG

,

1,, **

Where:

gYIG = Years input per graduate (for graduates belonging to cohort g)

jgG , = Graduates from cohort g after j years of study g,j

jgD , = drop-outs from cohort g after j years of study

k denotes the number of repetitions allowed; n the prescribed normal duration of study for a cycle or level of education; g the pupil-cohort; and j the number of years of study.

42


AVERAGE DURATION OF STUDIES PER GRADUATE Definition: The estimated average number of years taken by graduates to graduate from a given school cohort in a cycle or level of education. Calculation method: Divide the sum of the products of the number of graduates by number of n years spent in a given school cohort in a cycle or level of education by the number of graduates in the corresponding school cohort and cycle or level of education and express the result in number of years. N.B. one year spent in a grade by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year. Formula:

∑

∑+

=

+

== kn

nii

kn

nii

G

iGADSG

*

Where:

nG = Graduates after n years of study

1+nG = Graduates after n+1 years of study

knG + = Graduates after n+k years of study

∑+

=

=kn

niiGG = Total number of graduates

AVERAGE DURATION OF STUDIES PER DROPOUT Definition: The estimated average number of years dropouts from a given school cohort in a level of education, stayed at school before dropping out. Calculation method: Divide the total number of years (pupil-years) during which drop-outs from a given school cohort and in a level or cycle of education stayed in a school before leaving by the number of drop-outs in corresponding school cohort and level or cycle of education and express the result in numbers of years. N.B. one year spent in a grade by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year. Formula:

∑

∑+

=

+

== kn

nii

kn

nii

D

iDADSD

*

Where:

iD = Dropouts after i years of study

knD + = Dropouts after n+k years of study

∑+

=

=kn

niiDD = Total number of dropouts

AVERAGE DURATION OF STUDIES FOR THE COHORT Definition: The estimated average number of years required to graduate a pupil/student from a given school cohort in a cycle or level of education. Calculation method: Divide the sum of the total number of pupil-years taken by pupils from a given school cohort and in a level or cycle of education to graduate and the total pupil-years during which

43


drop-outs stayed in school before leaving by the sum of the number of graduates and drop-outs in corresponding school cohort and level or cycle of education and express the result in numbers of years. N.B. one year spent in a grade by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year. Formula:

1000** DADSDGADSGADSC +

=

Where: ADSG= Average duration of studies per graduate ADSD= Average duration of studies per dropout See above. PROPORTION OF TOTAL WASTAGE SPENT ON DROPOUT Definition: The proportion of total number of pupil/years wasted due to drop out of school from a given cohort in cycle or level of education. Calculation method: Divide the total number of pupil-years wasted by pupils who drop out from a given school cohort and in a level or cycle by the sum of the total number of pupil-years wasted by both the former and the pupils who repeat grades in the corresponding school and level or cycle of education (i.e. the excess of pupil-years wasted on the repetition and drop-outs) and multiply the result by 100.N.B. one year spent in a grade by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year. Formula:

%100**

1

PYEG

iDPTWSD

n

ii∑

==

Where: PYEG=PYC - OPYG pupils-years spent in excess See above. PROPORTION OF TOTAL WASTAGE SPENT ON REPETITION Definition: The proportion of total number of pupil/years wasted due to repetition of school within a given cohort in a level of education. Calculation method: Deduct the PTWSD from 100 and express the result as a percentage. N.B. one year spent in a grade by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year. Formula:

)%100( PTWSDPTWSR −= Where:

%100**

1

PYEG

iDPTWSD

n

ii∑

==

See above. ADULT LITERACY OR ILLITERACY RATES Definition: Adult literacy rate is defined as the percentage of population aged 15 years and over who can both read and write with understanding a short simple statement on his/her everyday life. Adult

44


illiteracy is defined as the percentage of the population aged 15 years and over who cannot both read and write with understanding a short simple statement on his/her everyday life. Calculation method: Divide the number of literates by the corresponding age-group population. Alternatively, apply the same method using the number of illiterates to derive the illiteracy rate; or by subtracting literacy rate from 100%. Formula:

t

tt

PL

LIT+

++ =

15

1515

or

t

tt

PI

ILL+

++ =

15

1515

Where: tLIT +15 = Adult Literacy Rate (15+) in year t tILL +15 = Adult Illiteracy Rate (15+) in year t

tL +15 = Adult Literate Population (15+) in year t tI +15 = Adult Illiterate Population (15+) in year t tP +15 = Adult Population (15+) in year t

%1001515 =+ ++

tt ILLLIT NUMBER OF ADULT ILLITERATES Definition: The population aged 15 years and above who cannot both read and write with understanding a short simple statement on their every day life. Calculation method: Either use data on the number of adult illiterates collected during population census or survey or subtract the number of adult literates from the total population aged 15 years and above.

Teacher-related indicators

PUPILS-TEACHER RATIO Definition: Average number of pupils (students) per teacher at a specific level of education in a given school-year. Teachers are defined as persons whose professional activity involves the transmitting of knowledge, attitudes and skills that are stipulated in a formal curriculum programme to students enrolled in a formal educational institution. Calculation method: Divide the total number of pupils enrolled at the specified level of education by the number of teachers at the same level. Formula:

th

tht

h TE

PTR =

Where: thPTR = Pupil-teacher ratio at level of education h in school-year t

thE = Total number of pupils or (students) at level of education h in school-year t

45


t

hT = Total number of teachers at level of education h in school-year t. TEACHERS’ EMOLUMENTS AS PERCENTAGE OF PUBLIC CURRENT EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION Definition: Public expenditure devoted to teachers' emoluments expressed as a percentage of total public current expenditure on education. Calculation Method: Divide public current expenditure devoted to teachers’ emoluments in a given financial year by the total public current expenditure on education for the same financial year. Formula:

t

tt PCXE

TXTX =%

Where:

tTX% = Percentage of public current expenditure on education devoted to teachers’ emoluments in financial year t.

tTX = Total public current expenditure on teachers' emoluments in financial year t.

tPCXE = Total public current expenditure on education in financial year t.

Facilities-related indicators

PUPILS-CLASSROOM RATIO Definition: The ratio of the number of pupils (students) to the number of classrooms. Calculation Method: Divide the number of pupils (students) at a level or cycle of education by the number of classrooms in the corresponding level or cycle of education. Formula:

th

tht

h CE

PCR =

Where: thPCR = Pupil-classroom ratio at level of education h in school-year t

thE = Total number of pupils or (students) at level of education h in school-year t thC = Total number of classrooms at level of education h in school-year t.

CLASSROOM SPACE UTILISATION RATE Definition: Percentage of the area of the standard floor space occupied by pupils/students in a classroom. Calculation Method: Divide the area of floor space of a classroom actually used by pupils/students at a level or cycle of education by the standard floor space which is planned for utilisation by pupils/students in the corresponding level or cycle of education. Formula:

th

tht

h SA

CSUR =

46


Where:

thCSUR = Classroom space utilisation rate

thA = Area of classroom's floor space actually used at h level or cycle of education thS =Area of the standard classroom's floor space that is planned for utilisation at h level or cycle of

education Data required: 1) Number of classrooms 2) Standard and actual area of floor space classrooms are respectively utilized or planned to be utilized. CLASSROOM TIME UTILISATION RATE Definition: Proportion of hours classrooms are used or occupied for teaching/learning purposes within the total number of standard hours of utilisation. Calculation Method: Divide the number of hours during which classrooms are actually utilised for teaching and learning at a level or cycle of education by the standard numbers of hours classrooms are planned to be used in the corresponding level or cycle of education. Formula:

th

tht

h SH

CTUR =

Where: thCTUR = Classroom time utilisation rate

thH = Number of actual hours classrooms used at h level or cycle of education

thS = Number of standard hours of utilisation of classrooms at h level or cycle of education

Data required: 1) Number of classrooms 2) Standard and actual number of hours classrooms are respectively utilised or planned to be utilised. CLASSROOM UTLISATION RATE Definition: The product of the classroom's space and time utilisation rates. Calculation Method: Multiply the CTUR (Classroom Space Utilisation Rate) by the CSUR (Classroom Time Utilisation Rate). Formula:

thCUR = + t

hCSUR thCTUR

Where:

thCUR = Classroom utilisation rate

Data required: 1) Number of classrooms 2) Standard and actual number of hours classrooms are respectively utilised or planned to be utilised. 3) Standard and actual area of floor space classrooms are respectively utilized or planned to be utilised.

Macro-economic indicators

PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION AS PERCENTAGE OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

47


Definition: Total public expenditure on education (current and capital) expressed as a percentage of the Gross National Product (GNP) in a given financial year. Calculation method: Divide total public expenditure on education in a given financial year by the GNP of the country for the corresponding year. Formula:

t

tt GNP

PXEGNP =%

Where:

tGNP% = Percentage public expenditure on education in financial year t.

tPXE = Total Public expenditure on Education in financial year t.

tGNP = Gross National Product in financial year t. Interpretation: In principle a high percentage of GNP devoted to public expenditure on education denotes a high level of attention given to investment in education by the government; and vice versa. PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE Definition: Total public expenditure on education (current and capital) expressed as a percentage of total government expenditure in a given financial year. Calculation method: Divide total public expenditure on education incurred by all government agencies/departments in a given financial year by the total government expenditure for the same financial year. Formula:

t

tt TPX

PXEPXE =%

Where:

tPXE% = Public expenditure on education as a percentage of total government expenditure in financial year t.

tPXE = Total public expenditure on education in financial year t.

tTPX = Total government expenditure in financial year t. PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC CURRENT EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION BY LEVEL Definition: Public current expenditure for each level of education, expressed as a percentage of total public current expenditure on education. Calculation method: Divide public current expenditure devoted to each level of education by the total public current expenditure on education. Formula:

∑=

= n

h

th

tht

h

PCXE

PCXEPCXE

1

%

48


Where:

thPCXE% = Percentage public current expenditures on level of education h in financial year t.

thPCXE = Total public current expenditures on level of education h in financial year t.

PUBLIC CURRENT EXPENDITURE PER PUPIL (STUDENT) AS % OF GNP PER CAPITA Definition: Public current expenditure per pupil (or student) at each level of education, expressed as a percentage of GNP per capita in a given financial year. Calculation method: Divide per pupil public current expenditure on each level of education in a given year by the GNP per capita for the same year. Formula:

t

t

th

tht

GNPch PGNP

EPCXE

PCXE /% , =

Where: t

GNPchPCXE ,% = Public current expenditure per pupil of education level h as percentage of GNP per capita in financial year t

thPCXE = Public current expenditure on education level h in financial year t

tGNP = Gross National Product in financial year t thE = Total enrolment in education level h in school-year t tP = Total national population in year t.

PUBLIC CURRENT EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION Definition: Public current expenditure on education expressed as a percentage of total public expenditure on education (current and capital) in a given financial year. Calculation method: Divide public current expenditure on education in a given financial year by the total public expenditure on education for the same financial year. Formula:

t

tt TPXE

PCXEPCXE =%

Where:

tPCXE% = Percentage public current expenditure on education in financial year t.

tPCXE = Total public current expenditure on education in financial year t.

tTPXE = Total public expenditure in financial year t.

B. Secondary and Related Indicators used for projections

49


Pupils/students

ENROLMENTS Formula: 1) ttt ErNE 1

11

11

11 += ++

2) i=2, 3, …, n; 111

11

+++

++ += t

it

iti

ti

ti ErEpE

Enrolment in Grade 1 in school-year t+1 can be projected using formula (1), if enrolment in Grade 1, in school-year t, the Grade 1 repetition rate and new entrants in year t+1 are known. Furthermore, if enrolment in all grades in year t are known, as well as all promotion and repetition rates, projection of enrolment in Grades 2,...,n in year t+1 can established using formula (2). NEW ENTRANTS The projections of new entrants N in year t are the following equation: Formula:

ta

tt PnN += (symbols as defined above) Two options can be used for projecting new entrants: either using constant intake intake rate or linear adjustment of intakes rates. i) Constant intake rate uses the last observed value of the intake rate throughout the period that projections are established. ii) Linear adjustment of intake rate uses regression analysis, the regression line being estimated by the method of least squares. FLOW RATES Amongst others, two options for projecting flow rates are presented below: either constant flow rates or adjusting the rates using logito approach. i) Constant approach uses the last observed values the rates and keeps them constant throughout period projections are established. ii) Logito approach give simultaneous estimation of a set flow rates. Formula:

tdPLn 11 βα +=

TRANSITION RATES Two options can be used for projecting transition rates: Transitions rates Option I: Formula:

α*tpp oo

tt +=

β*tpp oo

tt +=

α = constant annual rate change of p β = constant annual rate change of r

50


Option II:

tp and takes the values you have entered for each year of the simulation period. tr Teachers

TEACHER REQUIREMENTS The teacher flows are expressed as follows: a) Calculation of full-time equivalent teachers required • Method based on the pupil-teacher ratio Formula:

t

tt

RE

TR =

crtRRt *0 += Where:

tTR = number required of full-time equivalent teachers required tE = total projected number of students tR = pupil-teacher ratio 0R = initial pupil-teacher ratio

cr = constant annual rate change of pupil-teacher ratio • Method based on the number of pupils by class and hours taught by teachers Formula:

tt

ttt

LCHE

TR**

=

cctCC t *0 += where:

tTR and are defined above. tEtH = average number of weekly hours per student

tC = average number of students per class tL = average number of weekly hours per full-time teacher

cc = constant annual rate change of average number of students per class b) Calculation of teachers available Formula:

)1(*,1

, itji

tji ATAT α−=+

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)*,

1, i

tji

tji ATAT β=+

∑∑ ++ =k

j

tji

n

i

t ATAT 1,

1

where:

tijAT = Available teachers by categories (i) and steps (j)

iα = replacement rate of teachers

iβ = proportion of teachers changing to the next category tAT = total number of teachers available

c) Calculation of new teachers required Formula:

jttt

jo ATTRNT δ*)( 111,

+++ −= where:

1+tNT = number of new teachers required 1

,+tjoNT = new teacher required by categories

jδ = proportion of new teachers appointed to the category j Facilities

CLASSROOM REQUIREMENTS Formula:

td

tdt

d ASCE

TCR =

[ ]td

td

tdt

d ASCEaE

NC1*)1( −−−

=

cctASCASC od

td *+=

where:

tdE = Total projected number of students, year t and level of education d

tdTCR = total classrooms required, year t and level of education d tdASC = Average number of students per classrooms year t, level of education d

tdNC = new classrooms required, year t, level of education d

a = replacement rate of buildings cc = constant annual rate of change of average of students per classrooms 0 = initial year

Projection of costs

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TOTAL COSTS (RECURRENT AND CAPITAL) Formula:

td

td

td IRCC +=

Where: t = year d = level of education

tdC = Total costs

tdRC = Total recurrent costs

tdI = Investment

RECURRENT COSTS Formula:

td

td

td

td

td COCACMCTRC +++=

∑∑+=

=k

jdij

tdij

n

i

td wTCT

11

dtd

td CMPSECM *=

dtd

td CAPSECA *=

dtd

td COPSECO *=

Where:

tdCT = Teacher costs

tdCM = Costs of materials

tdCA = Administrative costs tdCO = Other costs

tdijT = Teachers by categories(i) and steps(j) tdijw = salaries by categories and steps

dCMPS = per pupil cost for materials

dCAPS = per pupil administrative cost

dCOPS = per pupil other costs BUILDING (CAPITAL) COSTS Formula:

[ ]1*)1(* −−−= td

td

td EaECBPSI

Where:

dCBPS = per pupil building cost tdE = Enrolment

a = replacement rate of buildings

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