appendix wb (water budget and water quantity risk … · 2017. 11. 14. · appendix wb-1 (p.2) •...

1

APPENDIX WB (WATER BUDGET AND WATER QUANTITY RISK

ASSESSMENTS)

APPENDIX WB-1 (p.2) • Historic Data Records

APPENDIX WB-2 (p.7) • Water Taking Summaries by subwatershed

APPENDIX WB-3 (p.16) • Current and future stress assessment summaries

APPENDIX WB-4 (p.29) • Modelling of the Black-Severn River Watershed

APPENDIX WB-5 (p .52) • Peer Review Sign-off letters

2

APPENDIX WB-1(HISTORIC DATA RECORDS)

(WATER BUDGET- HISTORIC DATA RECORDS)

DATA RECORDS Water Survey Canada (WSC)

1) stream flow and baseflow normals Canadian Climate Normals

1) - Temperature 2) - Precipitation

3

Mean Annual Flow and Mean Annual Baseflow (cm/s)ID Name

Year 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929Stream Flow 13.71 22.95 34.83 32.04 26.79 33.60 23.36 28.66 23.53 26.70 26.99 23.04 32.42 28.30 45.58 54.08Baseflow 8.45 17.76 22.11 22.40 18.00 22.43 16.01 19.10 13.96 18.47 17.65 13.23 21.12 21.38 31.31 39.51Year 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949Stream Flow 10.22 23.13 16.79 38.38 25.85 21.13 23.26 25.25 29.68 28.87 24.78 20.92 21.74 24.88 30.70 16.41 23.81 21.32 32.41 23.59 42.68Baseflow 7.02 16.11 12.55 28.42 18.28 14.72 16.48 18.12 17.97 19.48 16.35 14.57 16.33 16.45 22.03 13.10 16.54 16.27 23.85 14.84 27.87Year 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976Stream Flow 1.07 0.96 0.62 0.80 0.76 0.72 0.84 0.50Baseflow 0.41 0.40 0.26 0.28 0.24 0.22 0.30 0.26Year 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993Stream Flow 19.52 24.34 27.59 27.52 19.80 19.27 17.20 17.85 26.95 27.06 20.54 27.98 22.48 22.51 32.34 26.58 14.41 20.62 23.85 23.15 23.03 25.60 24.36Baseflow 9.87 13.22 15.77 15.16 10.50 9.44 8.53 9.81 14.59 14.79 11.56 13.89 13.89 13.02 18.49 14.93 7.19 10.70 12.43 12.89 12.78 14.31 13.32Year 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975Stream Flow 26.91 76.45 55.32 58.29 53.38 30.01 48.26 78.59 36.48 30.56 33.42 27.69 46.11 48.53 78.08 48.03 56.49 50.59 46.23 61.04 65.64 70.51 49.00Baseflow 15.71 46.82 34.22 39.12 27.19 15.30 23.43 49.15 18.34 12.26 12.76 10.04 19.79 27.76 45.01 30.71 32.62 26.75 22.95 34.99 38.28 40.40 28.67Year 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985Stream Flow 15.14 12.42 17.39 20.11 39.88 26.49 27.63 25.08 22.69 33.20 31.86 34.97 23.98 35.31 25.30 29.99 30.60 34.48 31.83 32.67 29.88 27.97 40.14Baseflow 10.67 9.50 10.06 15.22 26.20 20.84 17.56 17.31 17.09 21.35 21.66 23.73 17.36 23.34 20.37 22.85 20.80 22.05 23.90 24.15 19.19 20.28 28.02Year 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988Stream Flow 1.38 2.93 2.66 2.80 2.32 2.42 2.80 3.59 3.57 2.26 3.10 2.52 3.06 2.91 2.98 2.81 3.46 2.27 2.70 4.01 3.97 2.84 1.92Baseflow 0.44 1.29 1.05 1.22 1.10 1.00 1.11 1.51 1.44 0.78 1.33 1.15 1.32 1.27 1.38 1.24 1.47 1.25 1.17 1.86 1.78 1.26 0.92Year 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985Stream Flow 1.32 2.64 3.53 5.05 11.96 8.38 11.76 5.22 2.16 8.44 10.81 7.51 6.32 9.98 9.58 11.97 7.15 8.38 7.22 8.26 7.24 5.41 12.17Baseflow 1.21 2.08 2.61 3.91 7.08 6.47 7.89 4.00 1.37 4.65 7.33 4.81 2.98 7.00 7.73 8.41 3.54 4.18 4.94 5.30 4.35 3.48 6.82Year 1967 1968 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1991 1993 1996 1997Streamflow 13.92 20.43 19.16 19.28 20.24 13.09 19.56 18.33 19.13 19.33 17.54 7.21 21.14 15.60 19.42 21.60 20.91 7.07 14.98 14.85Baseflow 4.27 10.73 7.26 9.53 9.32 5.26 5.38 5.99 4.73 6.60 4.73 1.48 11.47 5.78 8.46 7.87 6.41 1.96 8.40 8.45Year 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993Stream Flow 22.69 33.57 34.13 36.24 24.37 36.28 25.30 31.00 31.86 35.48 33.17 33.42 34.29 30.57 43.59 46.80 26.65 22.02 26.50 32.40 32.22 27.55 45.80Baseflow 17.09 21.36 22.12 24.55 17.39 23.85 20.37 23.30 21.06 22.16 24.03 24.35 20.60 21.23 29.46 33.41 19.38 16.81 15.43 21.55 20.15 18.43 28.25Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000Stream Flow 79.62 40.60 59.30 82.87 65.87 47.21 36.73 51.85Baseflow 58.79 32.83 42.33 64.21 50.84 32.73 24.76 34.07

South Branch Muskoka River at Black BridgeSouth Branch

Muskoka River at Mathias

Hawkrock River at Gravenhurst

Black River near Washago

Severn River at Swift RapidsSevern River

below Washago02EC004

02EC011

02EC013

02EC016Lake

Couchiching Outflow at

Severn River above Sparrow

Lake02EC918

Severn River at Severn Bridge

02EC017

WSC Station

02EB002

02EB003

02EB104

02EC002

Middle Severn River at

WashagoTremt Canal Lock 42 near

Washago

02EC003

4

Mean Annual Baseflow (cm/s)ID Name

02EB002 South Branch Muskoka River at Black Bridge

02EB003 South Branch Muskoka River at Mathias

02EB104 Hawkrock River at Gravenhurst

02EC002 Black River near Washago 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 200018.92 23.37 28.37 24.00 16.95 16.26 17.86 22.6811.67 12.00 16.47 14.32 7.92 9.05 11.02 12.45

02EC003 Severn River at Swift Rapids 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 200058.34 45.37 53.11 64.47 69.84 57.45 66.47 61.28 56.40 81.19 74.35 43.14 46.34 54.48 61.74 59.43 61.97 63.73 44.45 60.35 79.99 64.59 45.52 38.44 52.4135.13 25.28 36.59 39.78 40.70 41.51 42.15 38.53 36.83 57.37 47.68 23.52 28.27 31.30 41.28 39.43 37.88 43.59 27.33 34.97 58.02 43.83 26.45 21.60 30.27

02EC004 Severn River below Washago 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 200044.38 26.65 22.02 26.50 32.40 30.27 27.55 44.95 21.68 35.94 52.08 39.44 30.56 20.47 34.0032.59 19.38 16.81 15.43 21.55 19.65 18.43 27.58 16.24 24.64 39.51 28.14 19.05 13.95 20.70

02EC011 Severn River at Severn Bridge 1989 1990 1991 1992 19932.01 3.01 2.65 2.28 3.540.86 1.33 1.23 1.14 1.45

02EC013 Middle Severn River at Washago 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199314.51 4.89 4.26 5.66 5.82 8.64 6.10 16.359.49 2.96 2.19 2.70 2.98 3.87 3.16 9.79

02EC016 Tremt Canal Lock 42 near Washago

02EC017 Lake Couchiching Outflow at Washago 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 200021.68 35.94 54.49 41.84 30.56 20.47 34.00 32.83 101816.24 24.64 40.56 29.59 19.05 13.95 20.70 22.37 693.44

02EC918 Severn River above Sparrow Lake

WSC Station

5

Station Name Parameter Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YearDaily Average (°C) -10.43 -9.2 -3.4 4.5 11.5 16 18.5 17.5 12.9 7 0.6 -6.6 4.9Daily Maximum (°C) -4.9 -3.2 2.3 10.3 18.1 22.4 24.7 23.5 18.8 12.2 4.6 -1.8 10.6Daily Minimum (°C) -15.92 -15.2 -9 -1.3 4.9 9.6 12.3 11.5 7.1 1.7 -3.4 -11.3 -0.8Extreme Maximum (°C) 13.9 12 25.6 30.2 31.7 35 33.9 35 34.4 27.8 24.4 18.8Date (yyyy/dd) 1950/25 1994/20 1945/28 1990/28 1977/21 1944/28 1955/31 1944/14 1953/03 1946/05+ 1950/01 1982/03Extreme Minimum (°C) -40 -41.5 -34.3 -21.1 -7.8 -2.2 1.7 -1.1 -5 -11.1 -23.3 -41.1Date (yyyy/dd) 1994/16 1979/11 1980/02 1954/04 1956/08+ 1945/01+ 1943/01+ 1965/30 1945/30+ 1972/19 1995/29 1942/20Daily Average (°C) -11.05 -9.3 -3.7 4.3 11.7 15.9 18.7 17.6 13.1 7 0.4 -7 4.8Daily Maximum (°C) -5.32 -3 2.6 10.2 18.4 22.3 25 23.5 18.7 11.8 4.1 -2.3 10.5Daily Minimum (°C) -16.68 -15.6 -10 -1.7 4.9 9.5 12.3 11.6 7.5 2.1 -3.4 -11.6 -0.9Extreme Maximum (°C) 12 12.5 21.1 30 32.2 33 34.5 34 32 26.5 19 16.5Date (yyyy/dd) 1995/14 1984/23 1977/30 1990/28 1977/21 1994/16 1988/08 1988/03 1999/04 1979/22 1978/05 1982/03Extreme Minimum (°C) -42.5 -41 -37 -18 -7.2 -1.5 3 -0.5 -5.5 -11.1 -24.5 -40.5Date (yyyy/dd) 1981/04+ 1979/11+ 1980/02 1982/08 1977/07 1980/09+ 1981/22+ 1986/28 1981/30 1977/23 1995/29 1980/25

Note:

Month Canadian Climate Normals 1971-2000: Temperatures for Stations within or near the Black-Severn River Watershed

Muskoka A

Dorset MOE

Data was originally used in the 2007 Conceptual Water Budget for the South Georgian Bay-Lake Simcoe Source Protection Region

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Mean Annual Precipitation (Period 1971-2000) for stations in the Black-Severn River Watershed AES Station Begin End Missing Status Latitude Longitude Elevation Precipitation (mm)

ID Name Year Year Years North West m Rainfall Snow Total

Black River 6115525 Muskoka

A 1971 2000 1 Active 44o 58' 79o 18 282 809 334 1143

6112072 Dorset MOE

1976 2000 7 Active 45o 13' 78o 56' 323 804 277 1081

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APPENDIX WB-2

(WATER BUDGET- WATER TAKING SUMMARY)

WATER TAKING SUMMARY BY SUBWATERSHED • Black-River subwatershed • Head River subwatershed • Kashe/Gartersnake River subwatershed • Lake Couchiching-St.John subwatershed • Severn River subwatershed • Upper Black-River subwatershed

8

PERMIT NUMBER WELL NAME TYPE OF USE EASTING NORTHING PopPermitted Pumping

L/day

Months of Taking

m3/aConsumptive

FactorConsumptive

Demand

Municipal wells GW

TOTALS:Groundwater

TOTALS:Surface Water

TOTALS:Domestic Use Other - Water Supply 8,157 335 12 998,108 0.20 199,622 Agricultural Use Other - Agriculture 387,219 12 141,432 0.80 113,145

TOTALS:

Water Taking Summary - Black River

PERMIT NUMBER WELL NAME Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Total (m3)

Municipal wells GW

TOTALS: - - - - - - - - - - - - - Groundwater

TOTALS: - - - - - - - - - - - - - Surface Water

TOTALS: - - - - - - - - - - - - - Domestic Use 16,943 15,440 16,943 16,396 16,943 16,396 16,943 16,943 16,396 16,943 16,396 16,943 199,622 Agricultural Use 9,603 8,751 9,603 9,293 9,603 9,293 9,603 9,603 9,293 9,603 9,293 9,603 113,145

TOTALS: 26,546 24,191 26,546 25,689 26,546 25,689 26,546 26,546 25,689 26,546 25,689 26,546 312,767

Water Taking Summary - Black River

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L/day

Months of Taking

m3/aConsumptive

FactorConsumptive

Demand

Municipal wells GW

TOTALS:Groundwater

3110-5X7R2N Quarry Pond Other - Dewatering 642223 4948545 3,410,000 12 1,245,503 0.25 311,376 97-P-4005 Quarry Pits and Quarries 650632 4941722 5,000,000 12 1,826,250 0.25 456,563


TOTALS:Domestic Use Other - Water Supply 13,341 335 12 1,632,399 0.20 326,480 Agricultural Use Other - Agriculture 878,861 12 321,004 0.80 256,803

TOTALS:Notes Average pumping rates coloured in red indicate that PTTW maximum permitted rates were used in absence of known average rates.

Water Taking Summary - Head River


Municipal wells GW


3110-5X7R2N Quarry Pond 26,428 24,083 26,428 25,575 26,428 25,575 26,428 26,428 25,575 26,428 25,575 26,428 97-P-4005 Quarry 38,750 35,313 38,750 37,500 38,750 37,500 38,750 38,750 37,500 38,750 37,500 38,750

TOTALS: 65,178 59,396 65,178 63,075 65,178 63,075 65,178 65,178 63,075 65,178 63,075 65,178 767,938 Surface Water


TOTALS: 114,683 104,509 114,683 110,983 114,683 110,983 114,683 114,683 110,983 114,683 110,983 114,683 1,351,221 Notes Average pumping rates coloured in red indicate that PTTW maximum permitted rates were used in absence of known average rates.

Water Taking Summary - Head River

10


L/day

Months of Taking

m3/aConsumptive

FactorConsumptive

Demand

Municipal wells GW

TOTALS:Groundwater



TOTALS:

Water Taking Summary - Kashe/Gartersnake River


Municipal wells GW



TOTALS: - - - - - - - - - - - - - Domestic Use 10,469 9,540 10,469 10,131 10,469 10,131 10,469 10,469 10,131 10,469 10,131 10,469 123,348 Agricultural Use 557 507 557 539 557 539 557 557 539 557 539 557 6,561

TOTALS: 11,026 10,048 11,026 10,670 11,026 10,670 11,026 11,026 10,670 11,026 10,670 11,026 129,909

Water Taking Summary - Kashe/Gartersnake River

11


L/day

Months of Taking

m3/aConsumptive

FactorConsumptive

Demand

Municipal wells GWWell 1 Municipal Water Supply 625751 4941807 - 12 - 1.00 - Well 2 Municipal Water Supply 625745 4941635 - 12 - 1.00 -

TOTALS:Groundwater

00-P-1055 Intake/Pumphouse Campgrounds 630006 4948782 214,000 5 32,742 0.20 6,548 spring (artesian free flow) Campgrounds 630163 4940939 45,640 5 6,983 0.20 1,397

well @ campground Campgrounds 630067 4940760 45,460 5 6,955 0.20 1,391 well @ residence Campgrounds 629983 4940810 1,273 5 195 0.20 39

02-P-1121 TW2 (well) Communal 631020 4951092 90,000 12 32,873 0.20 6,575 TOTALS:

Municipal SW intakes3860-77WP7K Sandcastle WTP Municipal 631322 4955300 40,575 12 14,820 0.20 2,964 1356-7BUM7D Washago WTP Municipal 631678 4956025 105,820 12 38,651 0.20 7,730 4612-6E9PSB West Shore WTP Municipal 628382 4949884 425,700 12 155,487 0.20 31,097

91-P-3036 Lake Couchiching WTP Municipal 626197 4942039 9,187,540 12 3,355,749 0.20 671,150 TOTALS:

Surface Water00-P-1071 Lake Couchiching Communal 630167 4945688 1,150,000 12 420,038 0.20 84,008

1248-69MN86 Lake St. George Golf Course Irrigation 628750 4954189 190,932 4 23,294 0.70 16,306 97-P-1040 Lake Couchiching Other - Water Supply 626388 4940491 204,570 12 74,719 0.20 14,944


TOTALS:Notes Average pumping rates coloured red indicate that PTTW maximum permitted rates are used where average rate could not be determined.

00-P-1320

91-P-3036

Water Taking Summary - Lake Couchiching & Lake St. John

12


Municipal wells GWWell 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - Well 2 - - - - - - - - - - - -


00-P-1055 Intake/Pumphouse - - - - 1,327 1,284 1,327 1,327 1,284 - - - spring (artesian free flow) - - - - 283 274 283 283 274 - - -

well @ campground - - - - 282 273 282 282 273 - - - well @ residence - - - - 8 8 8 8 8 - - -

02-P-1121 TW2 (well) 558 509 558 540 558 540 558 558 540 558 540 558 TOTALS: 558 509 558 540 2,458 2,378 2,458 2,458 2,378 558 540 558 15,950

Municipal SW intakes3860-77WP7K Sandcastle WTP 252 229 252 243 252 243 252 252 243 252 243 252 1356-7BUM7D Washago WTP 656 598 656 635 656 635 656 656 635 656 635 656 4612-6E9PSB West Shore WTP 2,639 2,405 2,639 2,554 2,639 2,554 2,639 2,639 2,554 2,639 2,554 2,639

91-P-3036 Lake Couchiching WTP 56,963 51,910 56,963 55,125 56,963 55,125 56,963 56,963 55,125 56,963 55,125 56,963 TOTALS: 60,510 55,142 60,510 58,558 60,510 58,558 60,510 60,510 58,558 60,510 58,558 60,510 712,941

Surface Water00-P-1071 Lake Couchiching 7,130 6,498 7,130 6,900 7,130 6,900 7,130 7,130 6,900 7,130 6,900 7,130

1248-69MN86 Lake St. George - - - - - 4,010 4,143 4,143 4,010 - - - 97-P-1040 Lake Couchiching 1,268 1,156 1,268 1,227 1,268 1,227 1,268 1,268 1,227 1,268 1,227 1,268

TOTALS: 8,398 7,653 8,398 8,127 8,398 12,137 12,542 12,542 12,137 8,398 8,127 8,398 115,257 Domestic Use 6,411 5,843 6,411 6,205 6,411 6,205 6,411 6,411 6,205 6,411 6,205 6,411 75,540 Agricultural Use 3,936 3,587 3,936 3,809 3,936 3,809 3,936 3,936 3,809 3,936 3,809 3,936 46,376

TOTALS: 79,814 72,733 79,814 77,239 81,713 83,087 85,856 85,856 83,087 79,814 77,239 79,814 966,064 Notes Average pumping rates coloured red indicate that PTTW maximum permitted rates are used where average rate could not be determined.

00-P-1320

91-P-3036

Water Taking Summary - Lake Couchiching & Lake St. John

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L/day

Months of Taking

m3/aConsumptive

FactorConsumptive

Demand

Municipal wells GWWell 1 & 2 Municipal Water Supply 633698 4954130

Well 3 Municipal Water Supply 633685 4954178Park Lane Wells Well #1 Municipal Water Supply 633295 4956374 13,500 12 4,931 1.00 4,931

76-P-3062 Well #1 (Severn Estates) Municipal Water Supply 631123 4958933 13,000 12 4,748 1.00 4,748 TOTALS:

GroundwaterW-6 off season Campgrounds 598322 4972024 20,000 5 3,060 0.20 612

W-6 peak season Campgrounds 598322 4972024 98,200 5 15,025 0.20 3,005 W-1 off season Campgrounds 598365 4972036 20,000 5 3,060 0.20 612

W-1 peak season Campgrounds 598365 4972036 98,200 5 15,025 0.20 3,005 TOTALS:

Municipal SW intakes1830-6KXPST Port Severn SW supply Municipal 601170 4962804 400,000 12 146,100 0.20 29,220

TOTALS:Domestic Use Other - Water Supply 9,315 335 12 1,139,764 0.20 227,953 Agricultural Use Other - Agriculture 378,938 12 138,407 0.80 110,726


Water Taking Summary - Severn River

5,114 1.005,114

7841-696LMC

Davy Drive Wells 14,000 12


Municipal wells GWWell 1 & 2

Well 3Park Lane Wells Well #1 419 381 419 405 419 405 419 419 405 419 405 419

76-P-3062 Well #1 (Severn Estates) 403 367 403 390 403 390 403 403 390 403 390 403 TOTALS: 1,256 1,144 1,256 1,215 1,256 1,215 1,256 1,256 1,215 1,256 1,215 1,256 14,793

GroundwaterW-6 off season - - - - 124 120 124 124 120 - - -

W-6 peak season - - - - 609 589 609 609 589 - - - W-1 off season - - - - 124 120 124 124 120 - - -

W-1 peak season - - - - 609 589 609 609 589 - - - TOTALS: - - - - 1,466 1,418 1,466 1,466 1,418 - - - 7,234

Municipal SW intakes1830-6KXPST Port Severn SW supply 2,480 2,260 2,480 2,400 2,480 2,400 2,480 2,480 2,400 2,480 2,400 2,480

TOTALS: 2,480 2,260 2,480 2,400 2,480 2,400 2,480 2,480 2,400 2,480 2,400 2,480 29,220 Domestic Use 19,347 17,631 19,347 18,723 19,347 18,723 19,347 19,347 18,723 19,347 18,723 19,347 227,953 Agricultural Use 9,398 8,564 9,398 9,095 9,398 9,095 9,398 9,398 9,095 9,398 9,095 9,398 110,726

TOTALS: 32,480 29,599 32,480 31,433 33,946 32,851 33,946 33,946 32,851 32,480 31,433 32,480 389,925 Notes Average pumping rates coloured red indicate that PTTW maximum permitted rates are used where average rate could not be determined.

Water Taking Summary - Severn River

7841-696LMC

Davy Drive Wells 434 420 434 420 434 396 434 434 420 434 420 434

14


L/day

Months of Taking

m3/aConsumptive

FactorConsumptive

Demand

Municipal wells GW studies

TOTALS:Groundwater



TOTALS:

Water Taking Summary - Upper Black River


Municipal wells GW studies




TOTALS: 10,337 9,420 10,337 10,004 10,337 10,004 10,337 10,337 10,004 10,337 10,004 10,337 121,798

Water Taking Summary - Upper Black River

15


L/day

Months of Taking

m3/aConsumptive

FactorConsumptive

Demand

Municipal wells GW studies01-P-4062 Well #1 Municipal Water Supply 652961 4933992 294,000 12 107,384 1.00 107,384 01-P-4064 Well #1 Municipal Water Supply 653026 4933809 392,000 12 143,178 1.00 143,178

TOTALS:Groundwater

8422-5ZKNND Well #1 Golf Course Irrigation 653285 4932850 64,800 4 7,906 0.70 5,534 TOTALS:

Surface Water3274-62UJCV Quarry Pond Pits and Quarries 664500 4939550 12,528,000 12 4,575,852 0.25 1,143,963 8422-5ZKNND Canal Lake Golf Course Irrigation 653285 4932850 655,200 4 79,934 0.70 55,954



Water Taking Summary - Upper Talbot River


Municipal wells GW studies01-P-4062 Well #1 9,114 8,306 9,114 8,820 9,114 8,820 9,114 9,114 8,820 9,114 8,820 9,114 01-P-4064 Well #1 12,152 11,074 12,152 11,760 12,152 11,760 12,152 12,152 11,760 12,152 11,760 12,152

TOTALS: 21,266 19,380 21,266 20,580 21,266 20,580 21,266 21,266 20,580 21,266 20,580 21,266 250,562 Groundwater

8422-5ZKNND Well #1 - - - - - 1,361 1,406 1,406 1,361 - - - TOTALS: - - - - - 1,361 1,406 1,406 1,361 - - - 5,534

Surface Water3274-62UJCV Quarry Pond 97,092 88,479 97,092 93,960 97,092 93,960 97,092 97,092 93,960 97,092 93,960 97,092 8422-5ZKNND Canal Lake - - - - - 13,759 14,218 14,218 13,759 - - -

TOTALS: 97,092 88,479 97,092 93,960 97,092 107,719 111,310 111,310 107,719 97,092 93,960 97,092 1,199,917 Domestic Use 13,812 12,587 13,812 13,367 13,812 13,367 13,812 13,812 13,367 13,812 13,367 13,812 162,738 Agricultural Use 11,869 10,816 11,869 11,486 11,869 11,486 11,869 11,869 11,486 11,869 11,486 11,869 139,839

TOTALS: 144,039 131,261 144,039 139,392 144,039 154,512 159,663 159,663 154,512 144,039 139,392 144,039 1,758,589 Notes Average pumping rates coloured red indicate that PTTW maximum permitted rates are used where average rate could not be determined.

Water Taking Summary - Upper Talbot River

16

APPENDIX WB-3 (WATER BUDGET- TIER 1 MONTHLY STRESS

ASSESSMENTS)

CURRENT MONTHLY STRESS ASSESSMENTS • January • February • March • April • May • June • July • August • September • October • November • December

FUTURE MONTHLY STRESS ASSESSMENTS • January • February • March • April • May • June • July • August • September • October • November • December Monthly

17

GW SW GW SW

km2 mm/momm/m

o mm/mo mm/mo m³/s mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo % %Black River 509 88 7 81 36 6.8 16.8 23 1.4 17 26,546 0.05 9,603 0.02 0.3% 0.3%Head River 607 85 6 79 37 8.4 17.2 26 1.6 16 114,683 0.19 21,796 0.04 1.2% 0.4%Kashe/Gartersnake River 246 90 6 84 34 3.1 17.2 23 1.4 18 11,026 0.04 557 0.00 0.3% 0.0%Lake Couchiching/St. John 102 95 4 91 38 1.5 21.5 30 2.1 17 10,905 0.11 12,334 0.12 0.6% 0.9%Severn River 562 92 5 87 38 8.0 14.1 28 1.2 17 30,000 0.05 11,878 0.02 0.4% 0.2%Upper Black River 391 91 7 84 29 4.2 15.0 16 1.4 4 10,337 0.03 1,403 0.00 0.2% 0.0%Upper Talbot River 285 79 5 74 36 3.8 16.6 28 1.6 14 46,947 0.16 108,961 0.38 1.1% 2.7%

Note: Values rounded for presentation purposes 25-50% of available groundwater supply being taken; 20-50 % of available surface water supply being taken 50% or more of available supply being taken

Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (current) - January

ReserveAvailable

SupplySubwatershed Area Precip AET

SurplusWater Mean Flow

GroundwaterConsumption

SWConsumption

GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW

km2mm/m

o mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo m³/s mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo % %Black River 509 61 9 52 25 5.2 16.8 12 1.4 2 24,191 0.05 8,751 0.02 0.3% 0.2%Head River 607 59 9 50 29 7.2 17.2 16 1.6 14 104,509 0.17 19,862 0.03 1.1% 1.6%Kashe/Gartersnake River 246 61 9 52 23 2.3 17.2 12 1.4 2 10,048 0.04 507 0.00 0.3% 0.0%Lake Couchiching/St. Joh 102 62 6 56 30 1.3 21.5 20 2.1 16 9,938 0.10 11,240 0.11 0.5% 2.7%Severn River 562 62 8 54 27 6.2 14.1 16 1.2 3 27,339 0.05 10,824 0.02 0.4% 0.1%Upper Black River 391 64 9 55 19 3.0 15.0 8 1.4 1 9,420 0.02 1,279 0.00 0.2% 0.0%Upper Talbot River 285 56 8 48 28 3.3 16.6 20 1.6 13 42,782 0.15 99,295 0.35 1.0% 5.0%


Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (current) - February

ReserveSubwatershed

AvailableSupply

Area Precip AET

Surplus

Water Mean FlowGroundwaterConsumption

SWConsumption

GWStress

SWStress

18

GW SW GW SW

km2 mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo m³/s mm/momm/m

o mm/momm/m

o m3/mo mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo % %Black River 509 71 24 47 72 13.7 16.8 48 1.4 29 26,546 0.05 9,603 0.02 0.3% 0.1%Head River 607 68 23 45 78 17.7 17.2 61 1.6 31 114,683 0.19 21,796 0.04 1.2% 0.1%Kashe/Gartersnake River 246 72 22 50 70 6.4 17.2 47 1.4 28 11,026 0.04 557 0.00 0.3% 0.0%Lake Couchiching/St. John 102 67 19 48 81 3.1 21.5 72 2.1 32 10,905 0.11 12,334 0.12 0.6% 0.3%Severn River 562 69 21 48 76 15.9 14.1 61 1.2 30 30,000 0.05 11,878 0.02 0.4% 0.1%Upper Black River 391 74 22 52 69 10.1 15.0 37 1.4 27 10,337 0.03 1,403 0.00 0.2% 0.0%Upper Talbot River 285 65 22 43 70 7.4 16.6 63 1.6 28 46,947 0.16 108,961 0.38 1.1% 1.1%


Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (current) - March

ReserveSubwatershed

AvailableSupply

Area Precip AETSurplusWater Mean Flow


SWConsumption

GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW

km2 mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo m³/s mm/momm/m

o mm/mo mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo % %Black River 509 73 45 28 111 21.8 16.8 92 1.4 44 25,689 0.05 9,293 0.02 0.3% 0.0%Head River 607 70 47 23 89 20.8 17.2 73 1.6 36 110,983 0.18 21,093 0.03 1.2% 0.1%Kashe/Gartersnake River 246 75 45 30 124 11.8 17.2 105 1.4 50 10,670 0.04 539 0.00 0.3% 0.0%Lake Couchiching/St. John 102 68 45 23 100 3.9 21.5 87 2.1 40 10,554 0.10 11,937 0.12 0.5% 0.2%Severn River 562 71 46 25 107 23.2 14.1 90 1.2 43 29,033 0.05 11,495 0.02 0.4% 0.0%Upper Black River 391 73 48 25 141 21.3 15.0 115 1.4 57 10,004 0.03 1,358 0.00 0.2% 0.0%Upper Talbot River 285 69 50 19 83 9.1 16.6 74 1.6 33 45,432 0.16 105,446 0.37 1.1% 0.9%


Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (current) - April

ReserveSubwatershed

AvailableSupply



SWConsumption

GWStress

SWStress

19

GW SW GW SW

km2 mm/momm/m

o mm/mo mm/mo m³/s mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo % %Black River 509 88 55 33 45 8.5 16.8 39 1.4 18 26,546 0.05 9,603 0.02 0.3% 0.1%Head River 607 85 59 26 38 8.6 17.2 33 1.6 16 114,683 0.19 21,796 0.04 1.2% 0.2%Kashe/Gartersnake River 246 90 58 32 51 4.7 17.2 43 1.4 20 11,026 0.04 557 0.00 0.3% 0.0%Lake Couchiching/St. John 102 81 57 24 44 1.7 21.5 36 2.1 17 12,805 0.13 12,334 0.12 0.6% 0.6%Severn River 562 85 55 30 40 8.4 14.1 33 1.2 17 31,466 0.06 11,878 0.02 0.4% 0.1%Upper Black River 391 89 64 25 44 6.4 15.0 36 1.4 18 10,337 0.03 1,403 0.00 0.2% 0.0%Upper Talbot River 285 83 64 19 37 3.9 16.6 33 1.6 15 46,947 0.16 108,961 0.38 1.1% 2.1%


Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (current) - May

ReserveSubwatershed

AvailableSupply



SWConsumption

GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW

km2 mm/momm/m

o mm/momm/m

o m³/s mm/momm/m

o mm/momm/m



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (current) - June

ReserveSubwatershed

AvailableSupply

Area Precip AET

Surplus

Water Mean FlowGroundwaterConsumption

SWConsumption

GWStress

SWStress

20

GW SW GW SW

km2 mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo m³/s mm/mo mm/mo mm/momm/m

o m3/mo mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo % %Black River 509 82 49 33 14 2.7 16.8 11 1.4 5 26,546 0.05 9,603 0.02 0.3% 0.3%Head River 607 79 51 28 12 2.7 17.2 9 1.6 4 114,683 0.19 21,796 0.04 1.2% 0.7%Kashe/Gartersnake River 246 87 53 34 14 1.3 17.2 10 1.4 5 11,026 0.04 557 0.00 0.3% 0.0%Lake Couchiching/St. Joh 102 80 51 29 17 0.6 21.5 11 2.1 5 12,805 0.13 16,478 0.16 0.6% 2.7%Severn River 562 82 48 34 12 2.5 14.1 9 1.2 3 31,466 0.06 11,878 0.02 0.4% 0.4%Upper Black River 391 84 56 28 8 1.2 15.0 6 1.4 3 10,337 0.03 1,403 0.00 0.2% 0.1%Upper Talbot River 285 77 52 25 9 1.0 16.6 6 1.6 3 48,353 0.17 123,178 0.43 1.1% 14.4%


Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (current) - July

ReserveSubwatershed

AvailableSupply



SWConsumption

GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW

km2mm/m

o mm/mo mm/momm/m

o m³/s mm/mo mm/momm/m

omm/m



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (current) - August

ReserveSubwatershed

AvailableSupply



SWConsumption

GWStress

SWStress

21

GW SW GW SW

km2mm/m

omm/m

o mm/mo mm/mo m³/s mm/momm/m

omm/m

o mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo % %Black River 509 100 28 72 18 3.5 16.8 10 1.4 2 25,689 0.05 9,293 0.02 0.3% 0.2%Head River 607 98 33 65 18 4.2 17.2 10 1.6 2 110,983 0.18 21,093 0.03 1.2% 0.4%Kashe/Gartersnake River 246 106 29 77 20 1.9 17.2 11 1.4 2 10,670 0.04 539 0.00 0.3% 0.0%Lake Couchiching/St. Joh 102 98 36 62 23 0.9 21.5 14 2.1 3 12,392 0.12 15,946 0.16 0.6% 1.4%Severn River 562 102 33 69 20 4.3 14.1 10 1.2 2 30,451 0.05 11,495 0.02 0.4% 0.3%Upper Black River 391 103 25 78 12 1.8 15.0 5 1.4 1 10,004 0.03 1,358 0.00 0.2% 0.1%Upper Talbot River 285 95 31 64 13 1.4 16.6 7 1.6 1 46,793 0.16 119,205 0.42 1.1% 7.0%


Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (current) - September

ReserveSubwatershed

AvailableSupply



SWConsumption

GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW

km2 mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo m³/s mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo % %Black River 509 93 18 75 34 6.5 16.8 32 1.4 17 26,546 0.05 9,603 0.02 0.3% 0.1%Head River 607 87 21 66 32 7.2 17.2 30 1.6 16 114,683 0.19 21,796 0.04 1.2% 0.3%Kashe/Gartersnake River 246 100 18 82 37 3.4 17.2 34 1.4 18 11,026 0.04 557 0.00 0.3% 0.0%Lake Couchiching/St. John 102 87 22 65 38 1.5 21.5 35 2.1 17 10,905 0.11 12,334 0.12 0.6% 0.7%Severn River 562 92 20 72 38 8.0 14.1 37 1.2 17 30,000 0.05 11,878 0.02 0.4% 0.1%Upper Black River 391 97 15 82 27 3.9 15.0 22 1.4 16 10,337 0.03 1,403 0.00 0.2% 0.1%Upper Talbot River 285 83 20 63 23 2.4 16.6 21 1.6 14 46,947 0.16 108,961 0.38 1.1% 5.5%


Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (current) - October

ReserveSubwatershed

AvailableSupply



SWConsumption

GWStress

SWStress

22

GW SW GW SW

km2mm/m

o mm/mo mm/mo mm/mo m³/s mm/mo mm/momm/m

o mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo m3/mo mm/mo % %Black River 509 103 12 91 54 10.6 16.8 49 1.4 21 25,689 0.05 9,293 0.02 0.3% 0.1%Head River 607 97 12 85 50 11.7 17.2 44 1.6 20 110,983 0.18 21,093 0.03 1.2% 0.1%Kashe/Gartersnake River 246 108 12 96 57 5.4 17.2 53 1.4 23 10,670 0.04 539 0.00 0.3% 0.0%Lake Couchiching/St. John 102 97 12 85 54 2.1 21.5 49 2.1 21 10,554 0.10 11,937 0.12 0.5% 0.4%Severn River 562 101 12 89 56 12.1 14.1 51 1.2 22 29,033 0.05 11,495 0.02 0.4% 0.1%Upper Black River 391 107 12 95 51 7.7 15.0 45 1.4 21 10,004 0.03 1,358 0.00 0.2% 0.0%Upper Talbot River 285 92 12 80 40 4.4 16.6 34 1.6 16 45,432 0.16 105,446 0.37 1.1% 2.1%


Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (current) - November

ReserveSubwatershed

AvailableSupply



SWConsumption

GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (current) - December

ReserveSubwatershed

AvailableSupply



SWConsumption

GWStress

SWStress

23

Area Precip AETSurplusWater

GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (future) - January

SubwatershedMean Flow

AvailableSupply Reserve


SWConsumption


GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (future) - February




SWConsumption

24


GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (future) - March




SWConsumption


GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (future) - April




SWConsumption

25


GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (future) - May




SWConsumption


GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (future) - June




SWConsumption

26


GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (future) - July




SWConsumption


GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (future) - August




SWConsumption

27


GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (future) - September




SWConsumption


GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (future) - October




SWConsumption

28


GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (future) - November




SWConsumption


GWStress

SWStress

GW SW GW SW



Black-Severn Watershed Stress Assessment (future) - December




SWConsumption

29

APPENDIX WB-4 (WATER BUDGET- PRMS MODEL)

Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) ........................................................ 30

Model Parameters .................................................................................................. 34

Model Calibration ................................................................................................... 39

Model Outputs ........................................................................................................ 40

LIST OF TABLES Table- 1: Environment Canada Precipitation and Temperature Stations used in the PRMS model (Earthfx, 2010). ....................................................................................... 33

Table-2: The top 23 land use/surficial geology combinations within the Black-Severn River watershed (Earthfx, 2010). ................................................................................... 36

Table-3: Monthly Precipitation Interpolated by PRMS (Earthfx, 2010). ......................... 41

Table-4: Monthly and actual evapotranspiration (AET) estimated by PRMS (Earthfx, 2010). ............................................................................................................................ 41

Table-5: Monthly total Streamflow calculated by PRMS (Earthfx, 2010). ...................... 42

Table-6: Monthly Median Streamflow calculated by PRMS (Earthfx, 2010). ................. 42

Table-7: Monthly Baseflow discharge calculated using PRMS (Earthfx, 2010). ............ 43

LIST OF FIGURES Figure-1: Calibration catchments for the reduced parameter PRMS model (Earthfx, 2010). ............................................................................................................................ 44

Figure-2: Environment Canada Monitoring Stations used by PRMS (Earthfx, 2010). ... 45

Figure-3: Ground Surface Topography (Earthfx, 2010). ................................................ 46

Figure-4: PRMS-interpolated annual average precipitation (Earthfx, 2010). ................. 47

Figure-5: PRMS-simulated annual average evapotranspiration (Earthfx, 2010). .......... 48

Figure-6: Schematic diagram of the reservoir-routing scheme used by PRMS (Earthfx, 2010). ............................................................................................................................ 49

Figure-7: Beaver pond contributing areas within the Black-Severn River watershed (Earthfx, 2010). ............................................................................................................. 50

Figure-8: PRMS-predicted annual average recharge in the Black-Severn River basin (Earthfx, 2010). ............................................................................................................. 51

30

PRECIPITATION-RUNOFF MODELLING SYSTEM (PRMS) A PRMS model of the Black-Severn River watershed was built to estimate the evapotranspiration, streamflow, baseflow and recharge components of the water budget. Simplifications (reduction) to the PRMS modelling code in the Black-Severn River watershed was done based on the assumption that the basin is fairly homogeneous with respect to land use and surficial geology. The spatial distribution of land use and surficial geology was determined from the Southern Ontario Land Resource Information System (SOLRIS–developed by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR), 2006) land classification and Ontario Geologic Survey (OGS) surficial geology maps (OGS, 2003), respectively. In all, there are 30 distinct land use classifications and 43 distinct surficial geology classifications that total 1290 possible combinations. The Black-Severn River model, in the end, was reduced to the 20 most-common land use/surficial geology combinations that, on their own, cover approximately 67% of the watershed area (Earthfx, 2010). To use PRMS, each watershed is divided into subunits, referred to as hydrologic response units (HRUs) based on basin characteristics such as slope, slope aspect, elevation, vegetation type, soil type, land use, and precipitation distribution. Water and energy balances are computed daily for each HRU. The sum of the responses of all HRUs, weighted on a unit-area basis, produces the daily system response and streamflow for a basin (Earthfx, 2010). The calibration targets for the model were flows from three HYDAT stream gauges (in sequence, ordered downstream): 02EC019: Black Creek near Vankoughnet (2006-2009); 02EC002: Black River near Washago (1915-2004); and, 02EC003: Severn River at Swift Rapids (1953-2005). Model development proceeded in a step-wise fashion, where catchment 02EC019 was first calibrated, followed by 02EC002, then by 02EC003. This ‘step-wise’ order was chosen such that the catchments

• Were modeled from smallest to largest basin area; • Were modeled from most homogeneous to least homogeneous with respect to

land use and surficial geology types; and, • That contributed flows to the following downstream catchment (Figure-1).

The PRMS model outputs are in the form of daily averages, which are used to match the general trend in the observed daily flows at each gauge. As well, monthly and seasonal total discharge, are used to match the observed volumes from each catchment (Earthfx, 2010). PRMS Operation and Input Data Key inputs to the model are daily precipitation, daily solar radiation, and minimum and maximum daily air temperature. For this study, daily precipitation and temperature data for 1975 to 2002 water years (October 1, 1975 to September 30, 2002) were obtained for 28 and 26 Environment Canada climate stations, respectively(Table-1, and Figure- 2. Daily precipitation as well as, minimum and maximum temperatures were interpolated to each HRU using an inverse distance squared weighting technique.

31

A flow chart describing the operation of the PRMS code is shown in (Diagram-1). The model tracks volumes of water for each HRU in a number of “storage reservoirs.” These include interception storage, depression storage, snowpack, shallow soil moisture zone, “subsurface water” (i.e., a perched water zone), and groundwater storage. Unique values for all parameters, from precipitation to hydraulic conductivity, were assigned to each 100 m cell in the model (Earthfx, 2010). Specific details pertaining to the input data and operation of the model can be found in the Tier 1 (Earthfx, 2010).

32

Diagram- 1: Schematic Representation of the PRMS Model (Earthfx, 2010).

33

Table- 1: Environment Canada Precipitation and Temperature Stations used in the PRMS model (Earthfx, 2010).

Station ID

Station Name Easting Northing Record Begin

Record End

6082178 DWIGHT 664404.3 5027680.4 1973 2005 6110218 ALLISTON NELSON 590634.9 4889157.6 1973 2006 6111467 CHATSWORTH 507963.4 4916306.4 1952 2006

6111769 COLDWATER WARMINSTER 616330.8 4943265.9 1971 2006

6111859 COOKSTOWN 605207.6 4894929.6 1972 2006 6112133 DUNCHURCH 589606.8 5055804.4 1973 2006 6113329 HANOVER 500000.0 4884830.9 1972 2006 6115525 MUSKOKA A 634063.7 4980653.2 1934 2006 6116132 OWEN SOUND MOE 505292.3 4936667.9 1964 2006 6117684 SHANTY BAY 608832.7 4917209.8 1973 2006 6119500 WIARTON A 492084.3 4955184.0 1947 2007 611HBEC THORNBURY SLAMA 541027.0 4934944.2 1968 2005 6129660* WROXETER 487947.0 4857074.9 1966 2006 6142400 FERGUS SHAND DAM 553688.3 4842471.4 1939 2006 6142803 GLEN ALLAN 522836.5 4836741.3 1955 2006 6151689 COBOURG MOE 725953.5 4872028.0 1970 2006 6152695 GEORGETOWN MOE 590077.5 4831755.0 1962 2006 6155790 ORANGEVILLE MOE 573595.8 4863025.6 1961 2006 6155878 OSHAWA WPCP 674100.8 4859345.7 1969 2006 6157012 RICHMOND HILL 624513.7 4860082.7 1959 2006 6158255* THORNHILL GRANDVIEW 627368.7 4850877.9 1965 2006 6158350 TORONTO 628995.4 4836095.1 1840 2006 6158665 TORONTO ISLAND A 629066.8 4832393.0 1957 2006 6158733 TORONTO INT A MALTON 610122.4 4839460.8 1937 2007 6164433 LINDSAY FROST 680708.6 4911395.2 1974 2006 6165195 MINDEN 680170.3 4978080.9 1883 2006 6166418 PETERBOROUGH A 711629.1 4901204.4 1969 2006

6166455 PETERBOROUGH TRENT U 716523.8 4914337.5 1968 2005

(*) indicates meteorological stations without temperature data.

34

Model Parameters Many parameters need to be defined before conducting a PRMS analysis to determine the water supply elements of a water budget. Consistent assumptions and parameter values were applied to all three local calibration catchments. This allows for surface water mechanisms to be inferred across the entire Black-Severn River watershed. The following discusses the PRMS model parameters (i.e., data used within the model). Topography Topography for the Black-Severn River watershed is based on a 100 m digital elevation model (DEM–MNR, 2003) provided to Earthfx by the LSRCA and is shown in Figure-3. The elevations range from approximately 400 mASL in the northeast, to approximately 150 mASL along the shores of Georgian Bay and Lake Couchiching. In addition, since much of the model area is exposed bedrock, the typical dendritic channel network common to most alluvial-dominated basins is lacking. It is unlikely; however, that channel form will affect the model results, because running the model in "daily" mode does not account for processes such as overland flow and channel routing (Earthfx, 2010). Slope and slope-aspect affect the amount of shortwave solar radiation arriving at land surface used in snowmelt and evapotranspiration (ET) calculations. Observed data for radiation received on a horizontal surface are adjusted in the PRMS model for land-surface slope and slope aspect as well as time of year. For example, a north-facing valley wall will get less solar radiation than the south-facing wall slope and will therefore have lower potential ET rates and the snowpack will persist longer. Slope and slope aspect values were calculated from the DEM using a five-point finite-difference approximation1

Land Cover

. Slope aspects were classified into 13 classes based on direction (North, East, South and West) and magnitude (0, 0 to 5%, 5 to 10%, and greater than 10%) (Earthfx, 2010).

The type of land cover has a strong affect on the water balance. Interception and ET are directly influenced by vegetation type and cover density, which, in turn, affect runoff and infiltration rates. Conversion of natural to non-natural land use generally increases the amount of impervious cover leading to evaporation from depression storage and increased runoff. At the same time; however, ET and evaporation from interception storage are decreased, so the net effect on groundwater recharge is more difficult to predict intuitively and is best done using a water-balance model. Natural land cover has been determined using SOLRIS land use data. The predominant land use is forest of all types (such as, coniferous, deciduous, mixed, sparse), which is followed by agricultural (including crop fields, treed fields, pasture and agricultural facilities). Urban residential land use is almost non-existent within the basin. Other notable land use types with significant coverage include bogs/wetlands and large waterbodies. Nearly 83% of the land cover is naturally occurring, either as forest, meadow or wetland (which includes marshes, fens, swamps, and open aquatic). Of the 1 The five-point approximation reduces to a standard central difference approximation when the cell sizes are equal (Earthfx, 2010).

35

83% natural cover, 75% (roughly 1,700 km2) is forest. Another 11% (260 km2) is wetland, and 12% (275 km2) is open water (Earthfx, 2010). As mentioned, consistent parameter values were assigned to each land-use type across the entire study area. Vegetation type was determined from SOLRIS land-use classifications. Cover density and transmission factors were estimated initially from the available literature (e.g., Hardy et al., 2004) and refined during model calibration to improve the match between observed and simulated flows. Final calibrated PRMS parameter values for each land-use class are shown in Table 7 of the Tier 1 (Earthfx, 2010). It should be recognized that there are limitations in this approach because it is reasonable to expect that there will be variations in the physical properties for each land parcel even though they are assigned the same land-use classification. For example, much of the Black-Severn River subwatershed is covered largely by dense forest over exposed bedrock. The extent of forest cover, or exposure of bedrock, is uncertain and will likely vary across the watershed. Open water and wetlands were treated as largely impervious so that recharge to these areas would be limited or zero. Depression storage values over these areas were exaggerated to allow for evaporation losses (Earthfx, 2010). Soil Cover/ Surficial Geology Soil properties have a significant influence on hydrological processes as they control the amount of water that can infiltrate and be transmitted to the water table and how much water is lost to evaporation and transpiration by plants and trees (ET). Soil water movement is controlled by two main factors:

1. the ability of the soil to transmit water (hydraulic conductivity); and 2. the gravity and suction forces acting on the soil water.

Surficial geology within the Black-Severn River watershed is dominated (69%) by bedrock of all forms, with or without drift cover, followed by sediments of glacial origin (12%), organics (10%), and tills (7%). Soil classification systems provide generalized information about the nature and properties of a soil in a particular location. For simplification, soil properties were estimated from the surficial geology maps which represent more generalized mapping of the parent material of the soils. Consistent parameter values were assigned to each geologic material type. Hydraulic conductivities for the soils were estimated from the calibrated values for the units determined from the YPDT-CAMC ORM study (Kassenaar and Wexler, 2006). Other properties were estimated initially from the available literature (e.g., Todd, 1980; Linsley et al., 1975; Chow, 1964; Fetter, 1980) and refined during model calibration to improve the match between observed and simulated flows. Final calibrated parameter values for each geologic material type are shown in the Tier One (Earthfx, 2010). Combinations of Land Use and Surficial Geology Land use/surficial geology combinations used in producing a ‘reduced parameter’ PRMS model of the Black-Severn River watershed are listed in Table-2. This Table lists 23 of 361 land use/surficial geology combinations present within the basin. These top

36

23 combinations cover roughly 66% of the entire basin (i.e., greater than the 65% coverage threshold mentioned in Section 2.1), while, individually, the remaining 338 combinations (with the exception of 2) cover less than 1% of the basin area. These remaining combinations have been grouped, as reasonable as possible, with the 23 combinations listed in Table-2. The last three combinations listed in Table-2, which all cover a small portion of the basin, have been included because these combinations existed within at least one the three local models used to calibrate regional characteristics. Table-2: The top 23 land use/surficial geology combinations within the Black-Severn River watershed (Earthfx, 2010).

Land use type Surficial geology type Percent watershed

coverage Forest - Dense Mixed Bedrock: Precambrian, Exposed 8.8% Wooded Area Bedrock: Precambrian, Exposed 8.7% Forest Sparse Bedrock: Precambrian, Exposed 6.7% Forest - Dense Mixed Bedrock: Discontinuous drift cover >1m thick 5.2% Forest - Dense Deciduous Bedrock: Precambrian, Exposed 4.6%

Forest - Dense Deciduous Bedrock: Discontinuous drift cover >1m thick 3.5%

Wetland Peat and Muck: Wetlands (organic deposits) 3.4% Wooded Area Bedrock: Palaeozoic 3.1% Wooded Area Bedrock: Discontinuous drift cover >1m thick 2.8% Waterbody Bedrock: Precambrian, Exposed 2.1% Water - Deep Clear Bedrock: Precambrian, Exposed 2.0% Wooded Area Glaciofluvial/lacustrine deposits: Sand 1.9% Mixed Agriculture Bedrock: Palaeozoic 1.7% Bedrock Bedrock: Precambrian, Exposed 1.7% Monoculture Bedrock: Palaeozoic 1.5% Forest - Dense Mixed Peat and Muck: Wetlands (organic deposits) 1.5% Forest - Dense Deciduous

Till: silty fine to very fine sand with variable stone content 1.4%

Forest - Dense Coniferous Bedrock: Precambrian, Exposed 1.3%

Forest - Dense Mixed Till: silty fine to very fine sand with variable stone content 1.4%

Forest Sparse Peat and Muck: Wetlands (organic deposits) 1.4%

Mixed Agriculture Till: Moderately stoney to stoney sandy silt to silt till 0.7%

Rural Land Use Glaciofluvial/lacustrine deposits: Sand 0.8% Bog - Treed Peat and Muck: Wetlands (organic deposits) 0.3%

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Climate Climate varies appreciably across the study area both spatially and temporally with local variation created by such factors as topography, prevailing winds, and proximity to large lakes. Long-term climate data, including daily maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, were obtained from Environment Canada for the 27-year period from January 1, 1975 to December 31, 2002. 28 stations have long-term record covering this period. Since the PRMS model works in “water years”, which begin in October of the previous calendar year, the data sets were reduced to the period of October 1, 1975 to September 30, 2002. Prior to processing the daily data, data on climate normals (30-year averages) for the period 1971-2000 were examined to search for obvious patterns. Data were obtained from Environment Canada for stations within or near the study area. The annual precipitation trend for the area is illustrated in Figure-4. The chosen modeling period of 1975-2002 appears to have many examples of both low precipitation years (≤900 mm) and high precipitation years (≥1300 mm), which recur in a, roughly, cyclical fashion; therefore, the chosen modeling period is deemed sufficient in representing in situ conditions. Mean annual precipitation, in the immediate region, ranged between 940 millimeters per year (mm/yr) at Barrie WPCC (6110557) to 1050 mm/yr at Muskoka A (6115525). Figure-4 shows the distribution of precipitation over the study area interpolated by PRMS using an inverse-squared weighting scheme. The data show that annual average precipitation is higher in the northwest part of the study area, although the spatial coverage of data, particularly to the northwest, is limited. While it appears that the data may be correlated with elevations within the study area, analysis of precipitation normals on a larger scale (e.g., Kassenaar and Wexler, 2006) shows that, while the high values are not anomalies, they are localized to this area. Similarly, the distribution of annual AET is illustrated in Figure-5. Monthly averages of maximum daily temperatures for the period 1975 to 2002 ranged from -5.0°C to 26.9°C while the monthly averages of minimum daily temperatures ranged from -16.3°C to 15.7°C. Mean daily temperature is not shown in the table because it is simply computed as the average of the reported minimum and maximum daily temperatures. The mean daily temperature for January (typically the coldest month) ranged from -10.7°C at Dorset MOE to -6.6°C at Alliston Nelson (south of Barrie). The mean daily temperature for July (typically the warmest month) ranged from 15.6°C at Beatrice -2 to 20.3°C at, Alliston Nelson. Daily climate data selected for use as input to the PRMS hydrologic model were nearly complete although some infilling of missing data was required. The PRMS code provided methods to infill solar data but these were not needed because the input solar data were complete. Data pre-processors developed by Earthfx to infill precipitation and temperature built on procedures developed by Schroeter et al. (2000), described in detail in the Tier One (Earthfx, 2010).

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Climate Adjustments Five PRMS meteorological parameters were adjusted to reflect the regional climate (Leavesley et al. 1983):

1. BST – Base temperature. When exceeded by daily minimum temperature (TN), all precipitation is rain. When BST exceeds daily maximum temperature (TX), all precipitation is considered snow.

2. AJMX – Rain/snow adjustment factor, by month. If TN<BST<TX, then these parameters determine the proportion of rain in a mixed rain/snow event.

3. PAT – Maximum air temperature, which when exceeded, forces precipitation to be all rain. This parameter is set monthly.

4. CTW – A coefficient which is equivalent to the proportion of potential evapotranspiration (PET) allotted to snowpack sublimation.

5. PETMN – a parameter added by Earthfx that sets a minimum PET. A detailed discussion on the process of adjusting meteorological parameters can be found in the Tier One (Earthfx, 2010). Surface Water Reservoir Routing The version of PRMS used in modelling the Black-Severn River basin lacks a runoff-routing package that is crucial in modeling the attenuation of flows caused by the sinuosity and roughness of stream channels, wetland retention, ephemeral rill formation, and topography. However, the attenuation of flows can be synthesized in PRMS by distributing net precipitation, based on the land-use type to which it contributes, to a network of surface water storage reservoirs with independent adjustable routing coefficients. Any storage reservoir can be set to contribute to a downstream reservoir or directly to the target gauge. A maximum of three reservoirs can be set to contribute to a single downstream reservoir. Five storage reservoirs were created for this model and are illustrated in Figure- 6. They include:

1. Open water reservoir, which includes all forms of water bodies; 2. Wetlands; 3. Wetland contributing area, which includes all lands that likely contribute directly

to a wetland (delineation of contributing areas is described below); 4. Beaver dam contributing area, is the same as above, except for lands that likely

contribute to a beaver pond; and, 5. All remaining land types, which predominantly include urban, agricultural, and

forest land types. Each reservoir has an associated subsurface reservoir (i.e., the interflow or unsaturated flow domain) that either discharges to the surface (i.e., storage) reservoir or recharges to the global groundwater reservoir. Since wetlands and water bodies were treated as being impervious, no contribution to the groundwater reservoir can occur from the open water and wetlands storage reservoirs. With the exception of the wetland buffer reservoir, which discharges directly to the wetland reservoir (Figure-6), all discharge from the remaining four surface storage reservoirs were directed to the calibration gauge as streamflow.

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The area contributing to wetlands and beaver dams were delineated using a simple 4-pass upslope buffering algorithm written by Earthfx. Although the PRMS reservoir routing routine allows the model to attenuate flows, this method is limited in that once water is received by a reservoir, the attenuated water is assumed to eventually discharge to the gauged stream without any further means of depletion. In reality, water received by the wetlands and beaver ponds from contributing areas would be depleted after a period of time due to evapotranspiration. As the model currently stands, this process is not accounted for.

Model Calibration Model calibration was performed in both a subjective and objective manner. The primary calibration target was in visually matching simulated and observed daily-and monthly-average total discharge. Daily-mean discharge is calculated for each Julian day of the year (i.e., 366 days per year); monthly-mean discharge is calculated for each month of the year (12 months per year). The term daily-/monthly-mean refers to the average discharge over the 28-year modeling period (WY 1975 to 2002, inclusive that occurred on that specific day/month. This method of validation essentially filters out any aperiodic discharge events likely caused by independent rainfall events. What remains, is the seasonal variation in streamflow that is most representative of recharge, as seasonal baseflow, occurring within the calibration catchments. Scatter plots were also employed to assess simulated annual, seasonal, and monthly total discharge. Seasons were grouped as winter (December-February), spring (March-May), summer (June-August), and fall (September-November). In addition to these plots, an annual hydrograph may be presented to illustrate PRMS’s prediction of annual streamflow volumes. During initial model runs, to meet calibration targets, model calibration required there to be a significant contribution to baseflow from areas of exposed Precambrian bedrock, which, in all, covers half the Black-Severn River watershed. Without this contribution, simulated gauges will go dry in the summer, which is contrary to observation. In addition, the contribution to baseflow had to be raised during the winter, in order to meet the baseflow recession during spring melt. For all soil types, the rate at which water accumulated in the groundwater reservoir was set equal to the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the soil. During the winter months, this rate is dropped to 5% of the summer rate in order simulate flow through frozen soil. For the PRMS model to best match observed data, winter permeability had to be set equal to summer permeability in areas of Precambrian bedrock. In this scenario, bedrock permeability had to be set, year-round, to 10-7 m/s, at least an order of magnitude greater than published values (Freeze and Cherry, 1979; Todd, 1980), and was thus receiving over 400 mm/yr recharge. These results can mean many things; however, it is more likely that either the bedrock is indeed highly permeable (possibly highly fractured) or there exists some other mechanism to attenuate surface runoff. It was decided, by Earthfx and during valuable discussions at peer-review meetings, that the latter is the likely case. Essentially, the problem is this, when assuming low (i.e., conventional) conductivities for bedrock, there would be large quantities runoff simulated at the gauge that far exceeded measured values. By inspecting seasonal trends, via the daily-mean discharge

40

hydrographs, simulated spring runoff would commence at the right time; however, the spring discharge would invariably exceed, and would occur prior to, measured trends. What must be required to prevent this is some mechanism that will serve as a temporary storage reservoir, which releases water at a steady rate. Initial attempts to model this mechanism relied on assuming a large contribution of baseflow from Precambrian bedrock regions, hence the increased conductivity/recharge. An investigation was conducted to see if the distribution of beaver dams would be suitable for such a mechanism. Upon receipt of the beaver dam distribution from LSRCA, it was immediately apparent that these ponds could become this mechanism, because there appeared to be an evenly-spread distribution of beaver dams that seemed to have an affinity toward the exposed bedrock regions where high permeability was necessary to match observed streamflow. Beaver dam distribution, including their delineated contributing areas (see Section 2.4) is included in Figure-7. Calibration was made against long-term surface water flow gauges maintained by the Water Survey of Canada (WSC) within the Black-Severn River watershed. Gauge locations are shown in Figure-1. Observed and simulated total flows were also compared using standard residual statistics used in surface water modeling, as described in Earthfx (2009). A detailed discussion on the calibration to each gauge can be found in the Tier One Water Budget and Water Quantity Stress Assessment of the Black-Severn River watershed (Earthfx, 2010).

Model Outputs The PRMS model simulations produced outputs that were used in the stress assessment calculations. The following discusses the PRMS model outputs used within the stress assessment. Precipitation and Evapotranspiration PRMS interpolation of monthly precipitation and actual evapotranspiration per subwatershed is given in (Table-3 and Table-4) respectively, and are illustrated in Figure-4 and Figure-5, respectively. Streamflow and Baseflow Separate runs were preformed on each subwatershed in order to estimate daily streamflow from the PRMS model. From these data, monthly mean flow and monthly median flow were determined and are presented in Table-5 and Table-6, respectively. Monthly baseflow was also estimated by PRMS and is presented in Table-7. Recharge Although the Black-Severn River watershed had limited available gauges for calibration, there were sufficient data to develop the model and build mechanisms that were required to simulate the hydrological processes as observed at the calibration gauges. Previous modeling efforts proved quite difficult in simulating seasonal flow patterns without using unjustified assumptions such as high rates of recharge occurring over the exposed bedrock areas. With the addition of beaver ponds (a new and, this time justifiable, mechanism of flow attenuation) the model was able to simulate measured discharge to a greater degree

41

than in previous efforts. The manual calibration of this model took approximately 150 model runs, varying between 30 min to 3 hours per run. Considering the lack of physical data, yet the well-calibrated results, this effort has been a great success. Figure-8 illustrates the final annual recharge rates for the Black-Severn River watershed (Earthfx, 2010). Table-3: Monthly Precipitation Interpolated by PRMS (Earthfx, 2010).

Subwatershed Area (km2)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total

Black River

509

88

61

71

73

88

86

82

88

100

93

103

94

1,027

Head River

607

85

59

68

70

85

84

79

88

98

87

97

89

989 Kashe/Gartersnake River

246

90

61

72

75

90

85

87

87

106

100

108

98

1,059

Lake Couchiching/St. John

102

95

62

67

68

81

85

80

91

98

87

97

94

1,005

Severn River

562

92

62

69

71

85

84

82

89

102

92

101

96

1,025

Upper Black River

391

91

64

74

73

89

87

84

91

103

97

107

97

1,057 Upper Talbot River

285

79

56

65

69

83

83

77

88

95

83

92

83

953

Note: Values are rounded for presentation purposes. All values in mm/mon or mm/year except where noted. Table-4: Monthly and actual evapotranspiration (AET) estimated by PRMS (Earthfx, 2010).

Subwatershed Area (km2)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total

Black River

509

7

9

25

47

57

54

51

46

29

19

13

7

364

Head River

607

6

9

24

49

61

59

53

49

34

22

13

7


246

6

9

23

47

60

57

55

47

30

19

12

7

372


102

4

6

20

47

59

59

53

52

37

23

12

6

378

Severn River

562

5

8

22

48

57

55

50

49

34

21

12

6

367

Upper Black River

391

7

9

23

50

67

60

58

43

26

16

12

7

378

Upper Talbot River

285

5

8

23

52

67

61

54

46

32

21

13

6

388

Note: Values are rounded for presentation purposes. All values in mm/mon or mm/year except where noted.

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Table-5: Monthly total Streamflow calculated by PRMS (Earthfx, 2010).

Subwatershed Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total

Annual

Black River

36

25

72

111

45

20

14

11

18

34

54

54 493

Head River

37

29

78

89

38

17

12

10

18

32

50

52 462 Kashe/Gartersnake River

34

23

70

124

51

21

14

12

20

37

57

56 518


38

30

81

100

44

21

17

15

23

38

54

53 514

Severn River

38

27

76

107

40

17

12

11

20

38

56

57 500

Upper Black River

29

19

69

141

44

15

8

6

12

27

51

52 475

Upper Talbot River

36

28

70

83

37

15

9

7

13

23

40

46 406

Note: Values are rounded for presentation purposes. All values in mm. Table-6: Monthly Median Streamflow calculated by PRMS (Earthfx, 2010).


Annual

Black River

23

12

48

92

39

18

11

7

10

32

49

46 388

Head River

26

16

61

73

33

15

9

7

10

30

44

45 369 Kashe/Gartersnake River

23

12

47

105

43

19

10

7

11

34

53

49 412


30

20

72

87

36

18

11

11

14

35

49

49 434

Severn River

28

16

61

90

33

15

9

6

10

37

51

52 406

Upper Black River

16

8

37

115

36

14

6

3

5

22

45

44 353 Upper Talbot River

28

20

63

74

33

12

6

4

7

21

34

42 345

Note: Values are rounded for presentation purposes. All values in mm.

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Table-7: Monthly Baseflow discharge calculated using PRMS (Earthfx, 2010).


Annual

Black River

10

5

13

30

18

8

5

4

8

19

26

22

167

Head River

15

10

24

36

18

7

4

3

6

16

26

25


10

5

14

33

19

8

5

3

7

19

27

22

173


21

16

42

53

22

8

4

3

7

20

29

30

257

Severn River

10

5

13

24

13

6

3

3

6

15

22

19

139

Upper Black River

10

4

11

33

21

7

3

2

5

17

29

23

165

Upper Talbot River

19

15

35

39

17

5

2

1

3

10

22

26

194

Note: Values are rounded for presentation purposes. All values in mm.

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Figure-1: Calibration catchments for the reduced parameter PRMS model (Earthfx, 2010).

45

Figure-2: Environment Canada Monitoring Stations used by PRMS (Earthfx, 2010).

46

Figure-3: Ground Surface Topography (Earthfx, 2010).

47

:

Figure-4: PRMS-interpolated annual average precipitation (Earthfx, 2010).

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Figure-5: PRMS-simulated annual average evapotranspiration (Earthfx, 2010).

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Figure-6: Schematic diagram of the reservoir-routing scheme used by PRMS (Earthfx, 2010).

50

Figure-7: Beaver pond contributing areas within the Black-Severn River watershed (Earthfx, 2010).

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Figure-8: PRMS-predicted annual average recharge in the Black-Severn River basin (Earthfx, 2010).

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APPENDIX WB-5 (WATER BUDGET-PEER REVIEW SIGN-OFF LETTERS)

Note: The Tier 1 Water Budget for the Black-Severn River Watershed is currently undergoing the peer review process. Peer review sign-off has not been achieved to date.

appendix wb (water budget and water quantity risk … · 2017. 11. 14. · appendix wb-1 (p.2) •...

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