apple retail market presentation - 18 mar 13
TRANSCRIPT
March 2013
UAE Retail Market Overview
Retail Market - UAE1
UAE Retail Space by Emirate – Q1 2013
Total retail space in the UAE as of end Q1 2013 stood at 4.04 million sq m.
The lion’s share of space exists in the Emirate of Dubai, representing 55% of the total retail stock, followed by Abu Dhabi with a share of 33%.
The Northern Emirates (comprising of Sharjah, Ajman, Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah) have a combined share of just 12%.
Dubai55%
Abu Dhabi & Al Ain
33%
Northern Emirates
12%
Based on the CBRE survey, the UAE ranks second only to the UK based on the number of international retailers present.
The UK remains the country which attracts most international retailers, with 57% of brands in the survey present in the country. However, the UAE is close behind on 53%.
Global Rankings 2012
Country% of International Retailers Present
Global Rankings -2011
2 UAE 53.1% 2
10 Saudi Arabia 41.1% 11
14 Turkey 39.0% 14
12 Kuwait 40.2% 13
27 Bahrain 30.4% 27=
27 Qatar 30.4% 29
40= Egypt 23.0% 41
49 Morocco 18.4% 49
64= Oman 12.0% 64=
70 Iran 5.5% 70
72 Libya 4.0% 72
73 Algeria 1.5% 73
Retail Presence by Country
Retail Market - Dubai2
Dubai Map
Until 1990, retail space in Dubai registered just 51,000 sq m, with much of this stock concentrated in traditional souks, small community and neighbourhood style retail centres.
Mall based retail space started to increase from 1995 with the entry of Deira City Centre and the Burjuman Centre. Total retail space currently measures around 2.2 million sq m.
Dubai Retail Space Growth (1990 – Q1 2013)
Prior to 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Q1,2013
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2,215,219G
LA
(sq
m)
Prime rental rates for new leases are now typically around AED 2,000 – 4,500, down from around AED 5,000 - 6,000 during the peak.
Since late 2008, retail lease rates have fallen across all retail types. However, declines have been less severe than other asset types, including residential and offices.
Shopping Mall TypeLine Shop
(AED/sq m/annum)
Anchor
(AED/sq m/annum)
Mall of Emirates 2,000 – 6,000 750 – 2,000
Deira City Centre 2,500 – 6,500 500 – 2,000
Mirdiff City Centre 2,000 – 4,500 400 – 1,600
Dubai Mall 3,000 – 5,000 1,000 – 2,000
Dubai Marina Mall 3,000 – 5,500 1,000 – 2,000
Dubai Mall Lease Rates
Occupancy rates within major malls remain exceptionally high, typically over 90%. However, the opening of new malls has impacted performance within smaller centres.
The best occupied malls at this time are the Mall of Emirates and Deira City Centre.
Higher vacancy rates are likely within non-mall based concepts, as retailers continue to shift focus to high demand areas.
Retail Mall Occupancy Rates
Dubai Mall Mall of the Emirates
Mirdiff City Centre
Ibn Bat-tuta Mall
Deira City Centre
Festival Centre
Dubai Marina
Mall
80%
84%
88%
92%
96%
100%
96%
99%
96%
92%
98%
94% 94%
Occu
pa
ncy (
%)
Total footfall in Dubai Mall reached 65 million during 2012, up from around 54 million during 2011 (this equates to 54,000 visitors per shop unit).
The second busiest mall was Mall of Emirates with just over 36 million visitors during 2012.
Retail Mall Footfall Figures (2012)
Dubai Mall Mall of the Emirates
Mirdiff City Centre
Ibn Battuta Mall
Deira City Centre
Festival Centre
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
7065
36
18.36
14.3
21.4
25
Nu
mb
er
of
Sto
res
An
nu
al
Fo
otf
all
(m
illi
on
)
Around 503,500 sq m of new retail GLA will be handed over in the Dubai market during the period 2013 – 2016.
This will increase overall retail supply from the current 2.2 million sq m up to over 2.7 million sq m by end 2016.
Future Retail Supply (2013 – 2016)
2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
58438.6737149175
151000
294067.129906447
503505.803621364
GLA
(sq
m)
Name of the Development Deira City Centre Wafi City Ibn Battuta Mall
Completion Date 1995 2001 2005
Location Port Saeed Oud Metha Sheikh Zayed Road
Retail Space (GLA sq m) 115,000 44,600 110,000
Number of Units 370 350 270
Occupancy Rate1/ 97% 94% 90%
Weekly Footfall1/ 411,000 N/K 275,000
Timeline of del ivery
Major Existing Retail Developments
Note: 1. CBRE estimates
Name of the Development
Mall of the Emirates Festival Centre Dubai Outlet Mall
Completion Date 2005 2007 2007
Location Al Barsha Umm Ramool Al Ain Road
Retail Space (GLA sq m) 230,500 200,000 65,000
Number of Units 520 600 240
Occupancy Rate1/ 99% 94% 89%
Weekly Footfall1/ 692,000 480,000 125,000
Timeline of del ivery
Major Existing Retail Developments
Name of the Development
Dubai Mall Dubai Marina Mall Mirdiff City Centre
Completion Date 2008 2008 2010
Location Downtown Burj Khalifa Dubai Marina Mirdiff
Retail Space (GLA sq m) 350,300 31,500 196,000
Number of Units 1,200 160 430
Occupancy Rate1/ 91% 85% 96%
Weekly Footfall1/ 1,250,000 N/K 350,000
Timeline of del ivery
Major Existing Retail Developments
Name of the Development
The Pointe Mall Agora Mall Palm Mall
Completion Date 2015 2014/2015 2016
Location Palm Jumeirah Jumeirah Road Palm Jumeirah
Retail Space (GLA sqm) 136,000 21,100 160,000
Number of Units 195 N/K N/K
Timeline of del ivery
Major Upcoming Retail Developments
Abu Dhabi - Retail Market3
Abu Dhabi Map
From a restricted historic supply picture, the retail offering in the capital has grown significantly over the past five years to reach 976,000 GLA sq m.
The highest increase in retail space was observed in 2010 with the soft opening of Dalma Mall in Mussafah offering circa148,000 GLA sq m.
Abu Dhabi Retail Space Growth (1990 – Q1 2013)
1990
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Q1 201
3
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000 975,954
GLA
(sq
m)
Retail lease rates within malls can obviously vary dependant on the retail type with F&B units potentially seeing differing rates to standard in-line stores.
Lease rates within the major malls are observed to range between AED2,800 – 3,500, although rents will vary dependant on factors such as unit sizes, type of retailer, lease structure, etc.
Mall Lease Rents
Shopping Mall Line Shop (AED/sq m/year)
Abu Dhabi Mall 2,800 – 3,500
Al Raha Mall 2,000 – 2,750
Al Wahda Mall 2,500 – 3,500
Dalma Mall 2,200 – 3,000
Khalidiya Mall 2,500 – 3,200
Marina Mall 2,800 – 3,500
Mazyad Mall 2,200 – 2,800
Mushrif Mall 2,500 – 3,200
Retail Mall Occupancy Rates
Retail space in Abu Dhabi City is close to full capacity, with occupancy rates reaching around 97 - 100% percent within Abu Dhabi Mall and the Marina Mall.
However, malls located off-island such as Al Raha Mall, Bawabat Al Sharq and Dalma Mall are still suffering from low occupancy levels.
Abu Dhabi Mall
Al Wahda Mall
Dalma Mall Khalidiya Mall
Marina Mall Mushrif Mall0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%100%
90%
45%
95% 97% 95%O
ccu
pa
ncy (
%)
Retail space (GLA) within Abu Dhabi city is expected to increase from 976,000 sq m in Q1 2013 to circa 1.7 million sq m by 2015.
With rising retail supply, mall owners will see tighter competition and the demarcation of quality retail space will become more apparent.
Future Retail Supply (2013 – 2015)
2013 2014 2015 Total0
150,000
300,000
450,000
600,000
750,000
196,150 142,400
392,400
730,950 G
LA
(sq
m)
By end 2012, total footfall in Marina Mall reached 18.7 million equating to roughly 46,750 visitors per shop unit.
Abu Dhabi Mall also enjoys higher footfall amongst similar retail schemes with over 16.3 million visitors.
Retail Mall Footfall Figures (2012)
Abu Dhabi Mall
Al Wahda Mall
Khalidiya Mall Marina Mall Mushrif Mall0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
5
10
15
20
25
17.5
12.8
10.5
19.2
11.2
Nu
mb
er
of
Sto
res
An
nu
al
Fo
otf
all
(m
illi
on
)
Name of the Development
Abu Dhabi Mall Al Wahda Mall Khalidiya Mall
Completion Date 2001 2007 2008
Location Tourist Club Area Airport Road Khalidiya
Retail Space (GLA sq m) 80,500 56,000 52,000
Number of Units 220 450 160
Occupancy Rate1/ 100% 90% 95%
Weekly Footfall2/ 340,000 230,000 197,000
Timeline of del ivery
Major Existing Retail Developments
Name of the Development
Madinat Zayed Shopping Centre Mina Centre Marina Mall
Completion Date 1999 2000 2001
Location Madinat Zayed Mina Breakwater
Retail Space (GLA sq m) 26,500 35,000 164,000
Number of Units 450 50 400
Occupancy Rate1/ 90% 92% 97%
Weekly Footfall2/ n/a n/a 390,000
Timeline of del ivery
Major Existing Retail Developments
Name of the Development Dalma Mall Mushrif Mall Bawabat Al Sharq Mall
Completion Date 2010 2011 2011
Location Musaffah Mushrif Baniyas
Retail Space (GLA sq m) 147,629 36,400 94,080
Number of Units 400+ 300 423
Occupancy Rate1/ 45% 95% 45%
Weekly Footfall2/ n/a 216,000 n/a
Timeline of del ivery
Major Existing Retail Developments
Name of the Development Capital Mall Central Market Paragon Bay Mall
Completion Date 2013 2013 2013
Location Musaffah Khalifa Street Reem Island
Retail Space (GLA sq m) 60,000 48,000 60,000
Number of Units 406 170 120
Timeline of del ivery
Major Upcoming Retail Developments
Name of the Development The Galleria Mina Plaza Deerfields Town
Square
Completion Date 2013 2014 2014
Location Sowwah Square Mina Zayed Al Bahia
Retail Space (GLA sq m) 28,050 29,100 153,290
Number of Units 1101/ 45 220
Timeline of del ivery
Major Existing Retail Developments
Name of the Development Yas Mall Reem Mall
Completion Date 2015 2016
Location Yas Island Reem Island
Retail Space (GLA sq m) 192,400 200,000
Number of Units 500 600
Timeline of del ivery
Major Upcoming Retail Developments
Franchise Agreement (Joint venture with major
franchise operation).
Local Sponsor (51% / 49% - joint venture
agreement with another local company).
Independent (no formal local partner).
Entry Methods
Most common system for setting up retail operations in the UAE. Major players include Al Shaya, Al Thayer, Chaloub, Landmark and
Azadea.
Positives
Low risk (financially) with low initial capital expenditure for start up costs (property, leasing and cap-ex), limited liability for daily operations and management and no liability for the profit and loss of the business.
Buying power of the franchise to minimise roll out costs.
Instant cash flow and access to long-term residual income streams.
Income calculated on the basis of gross sales and not necessarily profitability.
Negatives
Potential dilution of the brand and misuse of IP (logos, trade marks, etc).
Lack of control over brand identity and integrity.
Lack of control over staff training.
Franchise Agreement
Only UAE nationals or corporations wholly owned by UAE nationals or those with a UAE partner or sponsor are permitted to carry out operations.
JV with major local sponsor (Dubai Holding, Emaar, Jumeirah Group, etc).
Variations of JV structure (silent partner, fixed annual payment, profit share and or a mix of).
Positives
Benefit of the sponsor for negotiating, visa’s, preferential licensing, etc but without the loss of control associated with a franchise agreement.
If high profile Government entity - top cover and assurances ’get out of jail free card’ if required. - Strength of partner but without full franchise control.
Negatives
Still requires a 51% / 49% agreement (on paper but negotiation of terms possible).
Potential for some loss of control of brand and IP.
Local Sponsor (Joint Venture)
Standalone brand without local sponsor.
Positives
Maintain full ownership 100% structure and profits
No requirement for 51% local ownership.
Maintain full brand control.
Potential to leverage Apple global brand without any restrictions.
Negatives
No local bargaining power (although global brand strength should mitigate this).
Higher financial risk with potential upfront expenditure required (property, leasing and cap-ex).
Potential issues in attaining Visa’s, licenses and general administrative duties.
Untried model in other emirates and regional markets.
Independent