applied futures research overview, 2002

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Applied Futures Research:Overview, Common Tools, and Common Weaknesses

Dr. Wendy L. SchultzInfinite Futures

2001-2002 Fulbright Lecturer,Finland Futures Research Centre

[email protected] http://www.infinitefutures.com

Dr. Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures, 2002

Positivists vs. Futurists:design differences theory formation vs.

futures articulation reductionist vs.

systemic & holistic experimental vs.

descriptive linear systems vs.

complex & chaotic systems

predictive vs. exploratory

reproducible results vs. insights

one hard ’truth’ vs. multiple soft ’alternatives’

value-neutral vs. value-loaded


Positivists vs. Futurists:researchers’ roles objective vs.

subjective observer vs.

facilitator/participant

knowledge revealer vs. change agent

reporting vs. performing

Futures studies assumes that the point of exploring multiple possible outcomes is to help people create the futures they desire: active, value-focussed research.


Alternative possible futures...

Reality is a non-linear -- i.e., chaotic -- system, and thus impossible to predict;

Possible futures emerge from the turbulent interplay of current trends and emerging issues of change.

trendsinnovationsrevolutions, etc.

possibility onepossibility two

possibility three…etc.


…alternative possible futures

A basic assumption of futures studies: not one future, but many possible futures;

of those possible futures, some are more probable than others -- evaluate changing probabilities by monitoring trend growth;

of those possible futures, some are more preferable than others -- evaluate preferability by dialogue within community.


Alternative futures:possible, probable, and preferable

possible futures

probable futures

preferablefutures

objective of futures studies:act to enhance the probability of our preferable futures.


Five Key Componentsof Applied Futures ResearchID &

Monitor ChangeCritique

ImplicationsImagine

DifferenceEnvisionPreferred

Plan andImplement

Identify patterns of change: trends in chosen variables, changes in cycles, and emerging issues of change.

Examine primary, secondary, tertiary impacts; inequities in impacts; differential access, etc.

Identify, analyze, and build alternative images of the future, or ’scenarios.’

Identify, analyze, and articulate images of preferred futures, or ’visions.’

Identify stakeholders, resources; clarify goals; design strategies; organize action; create change.


Strategic Planning and Foresight

stakeholderanalysis

SWOTVISION

typical strategic planning process

mission+ values

strategies,resources,milestones,evaluation

what futures studies and foresight add:

wider change scans

scenarios to explore emerging possibilities

…and to enrich vision

…and to audit strategy flexibility

CURRENT CONDITIONS:market, clients, competitors,innovations, state of organization


Categories of data required by common foresight tools...

EnvironmentalScanning Visioning

SWOT,Strategies,Evaluation

ScenarioBuilding

CreatingChange

Change

FuturesWheels,

Impact Matrices

Square boxes require datafrom external sources;

hexagonsrequire both.

visioningrequires internal

value data;


Context: applied futures research


Identifying change...

• Current conditions;

• Cycles;• Trends;• Emerging

issues of change; and

• Wild cards.

• Locate its source;• Evaluate its

likelihood;• Monitor its

growth; and• Track its spread.

Kinds of change….

…lookeverywher

e!


Environmental Scanning

Primary futures tool for identifying and monitoring emergence, growth, and coalescence of change.

Related to issues management and competitive intelligence.

”Environment” refers to the information environment – all media – and ”scanning” to the logically structured, iterative monitoring of selected information sources.


Trends, emerging issues…and wild cards.

WILDCARD!!

TIME

numberof cases;degreeofpublicawareness

local;few cases;emergingissues

global; multiple dispersed cases;trends and megatrends

scientists;artists; radicals; lunatics

specialists’journals and websites

layperson’s magazines,websites, documentaries

newspapers,news magazines

governmentinstitutions

Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change.

adapted from J. Coates,Issues Management


Environmental Scanning:a basic approach….

Choose 5-9 information sources: Number of sources will vary because

update rate per source varies; Sector of sources MUST vary: ”360o

view;” Specialist and fringe sources preferred.

Create scanning database: title, source, description, implications,

STEEP category(ies), (keywords), ID #.


Common futures research tools…identifying/monitoring change. Data collection: historical analysis to identify

cycles, database construction to identify trends. Historical/cultural/structural bias; hidden data gaps

Environmental scanning: emerging issues (’weak signals’) identification, evaluation, and analysis. Identification relies on familiarity with state-of-art

Assumption analysis: assumption identification and reversal, linked to emerging issues for ’wild card’ extrapolation. No rigorously defined identification method exists.


…looking for impacts

How might our homes & families change? How might our work change? How might our hobbies & leisure differ? How might we travel & communicate? How might childhood & education differ? How might our environment change? How might government & economy differ?


Emerging issues of change…

24/7/365: no home-office divide – but flexibility!; By 2015, we talk to our computers, they talk back,

and recognize us via biometrics; By 2015, augmented reality widespread; By 2020, people are “globens” – world citizens; By 2020, routine, computer language translation; By 2030, micromachines create “smart” materials;


…emerging issues of change,

cont’d. By 2030, anti-aging advances let us live from

35-95 as “the same age;” By 2035, a manned mission to Mars; 3-D scanning, faxing, and “printing:” the

home fabrication unit. Continued global warming, with sea-level rise; Loss of biodiversity, especially of marine life.


Futures Wheels:Workshop Instructions

Enter your assigned change in the inner circle of your worksheet.

Everyone take five minutes by themselves to imagine possible impacts of this change over the next fifteen years.

Share your individual lists within your group. Which of these are immediate, or primary, impacts? Write those down next to the appropriate “spoke”.

Now consider each primary impact, one by one. Brainstorm two or three impacts it will have, and map those, connecting each to its primary impact.

change

work?

hobbies?

education?home/families?

travel?

communications?

economy?

environment?

Futures Wheel

primary effects

secondary effects


Common futures research tools…critiquing impacts of change.

Cross-impact matrices: structured, rated comparison of impacts against each other. Spurious mathematicization; linear.

Futures wheels: brainstorming primary, secondary, tertiary impacts. Disorganized; gaps in impact generation; doesn’t

account for time differences. Causal layered analysis: interpretation of

social texts, symbols, myths re: change. Subjective, culturally bound, subtle.


Existing images ofalternative futures: sources Individuals… what do people think?

e.g., Surveys, Ethnographic Futures Research, etc. Culture... what do religions imply? political

ideologies? what do artists imagine? writers? advertisers? other artifacts? Content analysis; hermeneutic analysis, etc.

Forecasts… what trends have researchers extrapolated? what scenarios have futurists built? Secondary analysis of existing research and data.


Scenarios: imagining difference through structured processes. Images of alternative possible futures; Based on trends and emerging issues; Exploratory, NOT predictive; Present both opportunities and threats; Real, NOT ideal; Used to create contingency plans.


Effective scenarios….provoke ideas!

• Vividly, boldly portray difference;• Clearly identify the time horizon;• Explain how the change unfolded –

tell the story of trends and impacts growing over time;

• Are written in the present tense, as if the future were happening now;

• Contain a few transformed elements of the ”past” – 2002 – to contrast the ”past” with the scenario’s present day.


Basic Scenario Building:FAR/Futures Table

Choose variables: specific and critical; uncertain.

Estimate/forecast range of outcomes: present trends extended vs. transformation;

or high, medium, low; etc.

Create internally consistent scenarios: identify and resolve ”impossible pairs;” organize by logical relationship.

Var\Out A B C D

Int. rate

high medium

low

Market luxury ”green”

mass youth

Tariffs. none low medium

high

Supplies

local nat’l regional

global


Basic Scenario Building:SRI Scenario Parameter Matrix

Choose variables: specific and critical; uncertain.

Label scenario ”plots:” usually, ”present trends extended,” positive

outcomes, negative outcomes, transformations.

Extrapolate a range of plausible outcomes for each variable.

Sort outcomes into the ”plot” column using the rule of logical consistency.

Var\Out PTE Up-side

Down-side

Wild Card

Int. rate

medium

low high negative

Market youth mass specialty

”green”

Tariffs. low none high freeware

Supplies

national

local global recycled


Basic Scenario Building:Schwartz/GBN Approach

Critical issue: what decision keeps you awake at night?

Local operating environment: what key factors will determine the success or failure of the critical issue?

MACRO environment: what are some of the driving forces creating change in the wider world?

Rank those driving forces by importance and uncertainty: MOST important AND MOST uncertain.


Basic Scenario Building:Schwartz/GBN Approach, cont’d. Select the scenario logics and create the

scenario matrix. Flesh out the scenarios by referring to

the key factors, and suggest plausible events that might create that end state.

Implications: how does the decision look in each scenario? -- SWOT analysis.

What might usefully serve as leading indicators or signposts that you are heading toward one or another of these scenarios?


Schwartz/GBN Example:Scenario Matrix for ”Global Agro-Seeds, Inc.”

Example -- driving forcesof change: development of the South; loss of marine biodiversity; trade protectionism; decreasing water supplies; public confidence in science; religious/philosophical conflicts; nano-bio-tech convergence.

Choose two most important to you,whose outcomes are most uncertain;drawn axes showing the extremes of their possible outcomes.

South flourishes

South crashes

”Science saves”

”Science stumbles”

broker of national,”natural” gene stocks

”steward” of national,”natural” gene stocks

partner in engineeringnew exotics from localplant stocks

supplier of high-yieldengineered seeds for famine relief


Basic scenario building,Manoa Approach:

Choose three emerging issues from different STEEP categories;

Create futures wheels exploring the impacts of each emerging issue, by a set date (2022);

Create a qualitative cross-impact matrix exploring the interactions of all three emerging issues;

imagine what a day would be like in the future where ALL those changes were real.


Manoa Approach Example:Three trends for 2030

Three futures wheels: 24/7/365 economy; hyper-reality widespread; and continued global warming.

Brainstorm primary, secondary, tertiary impacts for each issue, addressing: government, economic structures, family

life, patterns of work, education and training, arts and leisure, news and media, religion, etc.

“24/7/365”more workersneeded

“mom’n’pop” shops fail


Manoa Approach Example:Three trends for 2030

Cross-Impacts: Emerging Issues

“24/7/365” economy

Hyper-realitywidespread

Continuedglobal warming

“24/7/365” economy

Hyper-realitywidespread

Continuedglobal warming

Results offutures wheel



What impacts will hyper-reality have on the 24/7/365 economy?

What impacts will global warming have on the 24/7/365 economy?

What impacts will the 24/7/365 economy have on hyper-reality?

What impacts will global warming have on hyper-reality?

What impacts will the 24/7/365 economy have on global warming?

What impacts will hyper-reality have on global warming?


Common futures research tools…scenario building.

Morphological analysis/FAR: linking logically consistent outcomes across parameters. Limits unlikelihood, wild card thinking.

SRI Scenario Parameter Matrix: uses four ’plots’ to vary outcomes across parameters. Mimics ’default’ images; confuses scenarios with vision.

GBN/Shell approach: uses continua based on two uncertain trends to create four scenarios. Limits uncertainties considered; polarizes; creates related

scenarios. Manoa approach: uses impacts and cross-

impacts from three trends for each scenario. Lacks structural rigor, consistency checks.


Strategic Design Trade-offs:Scenario Building as an Example

Degree of difference from presentTime horizon

Read

er

Sop

his

ticati

on

scenarioparameter

systemdynamics:World3

GBN/Shellmatrix

futurestable/FAR

Manoa

divergencemapping

Burchsted-Crews


Effective visions….inspire action!

• Vividly, boldly portray hopes, ideals, and values;

• Clearly identify the time horizon;• Describe a ”future history” of actions and

projects that created the improved ”present;”• Are written in the present tense, as if the

preferred future were real now;• Contain a few transformed elements of the

”past” – 2002 – to contrast the ”past” with the vision’s improved present day.


Common futures research tools…visioning. Future Workshops: vision based on

present-day problem-solving. Very short timeline.

Future Search: vision based on history, stakeholders, trends. Stakeholders must have historical relationship.

Appreciative Inquiry: based on dialogue, past successes, ’language creates reality.’ No links to trends of change or emerging

issues.


Strategic Design Trade-offs:Visioning as an Example

Degree of difference from presentTime horizon

Level of

Part

icip

an

t R

isk

FutureSearchNanusAppreciativeInquiry

Boulding-Ziegler

FuturesWorkshops

Manoa


Common Research Flaws

Flaws in choice: Using the same tool for every project; Attempting too much rigor; Attempting too much creativity.

Flaws in application: Excluding participation; Process inflexibility.


Common Research Flaws, cont’d.

Flaws in communication: No explicit statement of:

time horizon; social change theory; values.

Generating too much complexity. No process links to client dialogue or

action.

applied futures research overview, 2002

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