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Applied Solar Expertise Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE Vice President EPIA Consultant Applied Materials Solar Member of Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and Supervisory Board of ISFH and Helmholtz Thin Films in Photovoltaics: Contribution to a Future Mainstream Electricity Provider Society Vacuum Coaters Chicago April 18th, 2011

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Page 1: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

Applied Solar Expertise

Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE Vice President EPIA Consultant Applied Materials Solar Member of Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and Supervisory Board of ISFH and Helmholtz

Thin Films in Photovoltaics: Contribution to a Future

Mainstream Electricity Provider

Society Vacuum Coaters Chicago April 18th, 2011

Page 2: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

Main

Color

Palette

Secondary

Color

Palette

CMYK

0/25/100/0

RGB

253/196/0

CMYK

5/80/100/0

RGB

224/81/21

CMYK

0/0/0/100

RGB 0/0/0

CMYK

5/95/100/0

RGB

227/50/38

CMYK

0/70/0/10

RGB

218/104/157

CMYK

50/80/0/0

RGB

148/83/161

CMYK

100/5/5/10

RGB

0/152/203

CMYK

30/8/100/15

RGB

165/175/41

CMYK

0/0/0/60

RGB

98/100/100

2

1. EPIA is the worlds biggest PV only oriented industrial

association with currently over 240 members

2. The membership represents

# the global PV industry

# the complete value chain (material production,

equipment manufacturing, component production,

system integration, R&D institutes etc)

# many national PV associations

Page 3: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

3

EREC – European Renewable Energy Council Umbrella organisation representing all RES sectors: AEBIOM European Biomass Association EBB European Biodiesel Board EBIO European Bioethanol Industry Association EGEC European Geothermal Energy Council EPIA European Photovoltaic Industry Association ESHA European Small Hydropower Association ESTIF European Solar Thermal Industry Federation EUBIA European Biomass Industry Association EWEA European Wind Energy Association EUREC Agency European Renewable Energy Research Centres Agency

Associate members: EU-OEA European Ocean Energy Association EREF European Renewable Energy Federation ESTELA European Solar Thermal Electricity Association

Representation of European RES industry, trade & research

Page 4: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

Source:

• Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future

• The power of Price Experience Curves – for PV modules and relevant thin film technologies

• Thin vacuum deposited films for c-Si wafer based and Thin Film modules

• Long term perspective towards 100% global energy supply by Renewables with PV playing an increasingly important role

Content

110418 4 Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – SVC: Thin Films in PV

Page 5: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

5

PV Solar – serving a Multitude of Customer Needs

on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency

€/kWh €/hr light W/m ² g/W

Source: Fraunhofer ISE

€/m² / aesthetics €/W flexibility W/mm²

Page 6: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

Source: EPIA market workshop, Paris, 2011

Historical and next 5 year PV market growth (bottom-up)

110418 6 Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – Thin Films in Photovoltaics (SVC)

16928

280 331 471 581 1119 1439 1581 2513

6168 7263

21300

24200

31900

35500

43000

14000 15700 18400 20000

23200

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Historical Data

EPIA Policy Driven

EPIA Moderate

Average growth 2000 – 2010 51% p.a.!!

[MW]

6% pa

20% pa

Page 7: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

SET For 2020 – PV penetration in EU - a top-down approach

Baseline Scenario: 4%

Paradigm Shift Scenario: 12%

Share of e-Demand by 2020

Indicative

2010 2030 2020

GW

Accelerated Scenario: 6%

Cumulative

Volume (GW)

Page 8: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

8 8

PV reduces the afternoon peak!

Electricity Load Curve in Germany

And Impact of up to 50 GW PV

Page 9: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

9

Competitiveness Between Electricity Generation Cost PV and Electricity Price

Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates, 1999

Page 10: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

10

1

10

100

1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05

MW accumulated

AS

P in $

/W

PEF 20%

source: NAVIGANT

1980 2005 20081990 2000

Price Experience Curve

Photovoltaic Modules

Page 11: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

11

The Power of Price Experience Curves (PEC)

Source: Adapted from National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Cumulative Production

Pro

du

ct P

rice

Log Quantity

Log Price

-40%

-30%

-20%

+10%

Dominated by Technology

Dominated by Materials & Energy

Price Experience Factor (PEF)

Page 12: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

12

DRAM – Moore´s Law

Experience Curve

Source: Applied Materials, Semiconductors Group, 2009

1,E-07

1,E-06

1,E-05

1,E-04

1,E-03

1,E-02

1,E-01

1,E+12 1,E+14 1,E+16 1,E+18 1,E+20

Cumulated bits

DR

AM

Price [

$cents

/ b

it]

PEF 40%

1980 1990 2000 2008

Experience Curve

1,E-07

1,E-06

1,E-05

1,E-04

1,E-03

1,E-02

1,E-01

1,E+12 1,E+14 1,E+16 1,E+18 1,E+20

Cumulated bits

DR

AM

Price [

$cents

/ b

it]

PEF 40%

1980 1990 2000 2008

Page 13: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

13

Semiconductor – Tremendous Development

Source: Semiconductor Insights Inc.

4 bit Microprocessor, Intel, 1971

1971

Today

State-of the Art Microprocessor, AMD, since 2005

AMD PMOS transistor with

physical gate length of 42nm

Smallest Technology Dimension

Page 14: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

14

DRAM – Moore´s Law

Experience Curve Driven by Technology

1,E-07

1,E-06

1,E-05

1,E-04

1,E-03

1,E-02

1,E-01

1,E+12 1,E+14 1,E+16 1,E+18 1,E+20

Cumulated bits

DR

AM

Price [

$cents

/ b

it]

PEF 40%

1980 1990 2000 2008

Source: Applied Materials, Semiconductors Group, 2009

10

100

1000

10000

1975 1985 1995 2005

Years

Sm

alle

st

Technolo

gy D

imensio

n [

nm

]

Indicated year when vo lume share

of new technology node > 5%

Page 15: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

15

Atlantic Hotel Sail City,

Bremerhaven, Germany

~ 500 million m2

coated glass p.a.

glass glass

coating

Baltimore Visitor Center

Baltimore, MD USA

Bird’s Nest Stadium,

Beijing PRC

Architectural Glass

Page 16: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

16

Low-e Coatings

Double Ag Layer Leading Edge Values

Technology PVD Sputtering

Glass Size: 3,21m x 6,0m

Layer Uniformity: < 2%

Manuf. Line length: 200 - 250m

Vacuum pressure: 10-6 mbar

Output / min: 1,3 glasses

Output / year: 10km2

(size of 1400 soccer

fields)

Ref.: Applied Materials, glass division, 2009

Page 17: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

17

10%

100%

1000%

1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04

Cumulated Coated Glass [Mio m2]

Rela

tive C

oating C

osts

/ m

2

PEF 17%

2000 200519901980

Price Experience Curve

Glass Coating

Source: Applied Materials, Energy and Environmental Solutions, 2009

Page 18: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

18

Technology PVD Sputtering

Glass Size: 3,21m x 6,0m

Layer Uniformity: < 2% for layers in the 5-20nm range

Manuf. Line length: 200m - 250m

Output / year: 10km2 (size of 1400 soccer fields)

corresponding to 2GW (at 20% efficiency)

Glass Coating Equipment

Source: Applied Materials, Energy and Environmental

Solutions, 2009

Page 19: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

19

Price Experience Curve Driven by Technology

0,1

1,0

10,0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Years

Syste

m C

apacity (

Mill

ion m

2 p

.a.)

Planar

Magnetron

DC Rotatable

Magnetron

AC Rotatable

Magnetron

Fast Cycle

Time, High

Volume

Glass Coating

Source: Applied Materials, Energy and Environmental Solutions, 2009

10%

100%

1000%

1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04

Cumulated Coated Glass [Mio m2]

Rela

tive C

oating C

osts

/ m

2

PEF 17%

2000 200519901980

Page 20: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

20

Display: TFT-LCD Panel Technology

Liquid

Crystal

Color Filter

PVD

PECVD

Page 21: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

21

Display – Experience Curve

Experience Curve

1%

10%

100%

1 10 100 1000

Cumulated Display Area [million m2]

Rela

tive C

osts

[%

]

PEF 35%

1997 2000 2005 2009

Source: Applied Materials, Display Group, 2009

Page 22: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

22

Substrate Size Expansion in LCD

Gen 2 Gen 2.5 Gen 3 Gen 3.5 Gen 4 Gen 6

370 x 470mm

Gen 5 Gen 7

Gen 8 = 5.7 square meters 2.2

me

ters

Gen 2 Gen 2.5

Gen 3

Gen 3.5

Gen 4

Gen 6

370 x

Gen 5

Gen 7

Gen 8 = 5.7 square meters

2.6 meters

2.2

me

ters

4 up

10.4”

6 up

12.1”

6 up

15 ~ 17”

6 up x 37” wide 6 up x 52” wide 6 up

19 ~ 24”

Gen 6

Gen 7

Page 23: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

23

TFT-LCD Panel Technology

TFT PECVD

Color Filter PVD Source: Applied Materials, Display Group, 2009

Page 24: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

24

Display

0,1

1,0

10,0

100,0

Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15

Years

Dis

pla

y S

ubstr

ate

Are

a [

m2]

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Laptop

Desktop

TV

Gen 2 Gen 2.5 Gen 3 Gen 3.5 Gen 4 Gen 6

370 x470mm

Gen 5 Gen 7

Gen 8 = 5.7 square meters

2.6 meters

2.2

mete

rs

Gen 2Gen 2.5

Gen 3

Gen 3.5Gen 4

Gen 6

370 x470mm

Gen 5

Gen 7

Gen 8 = 5.7 square meters

2.6 meters

2.2

mete

rs

4 up

10.4”6 up

12.1”

6 up

15 ~ 17”

6 up x 37” wide 6 up x 52” wide6 up

19 ~ 24”

Gen 6

Gen 7

Driven by Technology Experience Curve

1%

10%

100%

1 10 100 1000

Cumulated Display Area [million m2]

Rela

tive C

osts

[%

]

PEF 35%

1997 2000 2005 2009

Source: Applied Materials, Display Group, 2009

announced

Page 25: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

25

From Display to Solar

Gen 8.5 AKT-55K PECVD System Applied SunFab™

Gen 8.5 PECVD System

Glass

a-Si

SiNx

SiNx n+ a-Si

Thin Film Transistor (TFT) Structure Thin Film Solar Structure (Single Junction)

Glass

TCO a-Si

Al

Page 26: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

26

TF: New Module Size – 5.7m2

SunFab

Page 27: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

27

PV

Page 28: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

28

1

10

100

1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05

MW accumulated

AS

P in $

/W

PEF 20%

source: NAVIGANT

1980 2005 20081990 2000

Price Experience Curve Driven by Technology

Wafer thickness

0,7mm → 0,15mm

Kerf loss

0,5mm → 0,10mm

Efficiency

8% → 22%

Automation

Industrial manufacturing

Economy of scale

0,1MW → 200MW

Thin Film

Photovoltaic

Page 29: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

29

1. PEC for c-Si will continue

2. Reason for different PEC and PEF for Thin Film PV

3. Different growth rates for global PV installations as parameter

4. Different fraction of TF/c-Si as parameter

PEC = Price Experience Curve PEF = Price Experience Factor

Page 30: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

30

PV Value Chains

Page 31: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

31

PV Future – Eight Cases

Volume Scenarios Evaluation Cases

Volume

Growth Baseline Paradigm Shift

TF Share 15% 15%→35% 15% 15% →35%

TF PEF 20% 25% 20% 25% 20% 25% 20% 25%

Case 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

PV Volume Scenarios

0

50

100

150

200

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Years

Worldw

ide a

nnual P

V insta

llations

in G

Wp

Baseline

Paradigm Shift

Source: EPIA, Set for 2020

Page 32: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

0,1

1,0

10,0

1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06

MW accumulated

AS

P in $

/W

Case A – TF 20%

Case A – cSi 20%

PEC Scenario Case A: Baseline

TF share 15% const

TF PEF 20%

Case B:Paradigm Shift

TF share 15% → 35%

TF PEF 25%

0,1

1,0

10,0

1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06

MW accumulated

AS

P in $

/W

Case B – TF 25%

Case B – cSi 20%

c-Si Technology

price expectation in 2020

ca. 60 – 80 $ct/W

Thin Film Technology

price expectation in 2020

ca. 30 – 70 $ct/W

Photovoltaic – Future Price Development

Page 33: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

33

Price Contributors Installed Watt

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Module Efficiency

Price c

ontr

ibution in €

/W

P(module):

resulting price

for module

P(tot): to tal price for installed module

P(power): power related contribution

Typical module

efficiency of 14%

P(area): area

related contribution

Module Price vs. Efficiency Price Contribution

cSi TF

Price(total) 3.0€

Price(power) 0.5€

DC-AC inverters &

approval procedures

+ Price(area) 0.7€

mounting structure, cab-ling

and installation costs

+ Price(module) 1.8€

module price ex-works &

a margin for the installer

BOS – Complete Systems

Consideration

0.2 - 0,3 €/W

@ 14% Efficiency

Page 34: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

34

a) low cost (price) per m² (BIPV) at lower eta (4-6%)

- deposition area: 0,6 → 1,4 → 3 → 5 → 10 m² (…1/2 the jumbo size)

- utilize technology development in TFT technology (e.g. ASI)

- creation of semitransparency by thin-layers

- flexible solar cells (… web coaters)

b) low cost (price) per Wp

- ASI/µc-Si and II – VI compound (CIS, CTS)

- efficiency from 8 – 12 % today up to 10 – 15 % in 2010 and

14 – 20 % in 2030

Thin Film Technologies have:

Page 35: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

35

Project: SCHOTT Solar

Location: Alzenau

Function: Façade of Production building

Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV)

Page 36: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

Thin Film PV Value Chain

36

Large glass (or flexible)

Substrate

(0.7 – 5.7m2)

PVD TCO

Installation Laser

Patter- ning

Absorber Laser

Patter- ning

PVD Back

Contact

Laser Pattern-

ing

Module Finish

Thin Film Silicon PECVD a-Si and µc-Si (6 ... 10 7 ... 12)

CIGS co-evaporation (10 ... 12 13 ...15)

Sputtering and selenization (9 ...11 12 ...14)

CdTe/CdS close space sublimation (9 ... 11 10 ...12)

Same/similar process steps with same/similar cost / m²

Different processes and material cost for absorber formation

Page 37: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

37

Glass Substrate

Transparent Conductor

Amorphous Silicon

Microcrystalline Silicon

Back Contact

a-Si:H/c-Si:H Cell Spectral Response

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

20

0

40

60

80

100

0

1

2

3

4

5

Nu

mb

er o

f Su

nlig

ht

Ph

oto

ns

(m-2

s-1m

icro

n-1

) E+

19

Rel

ativ

e Ex

tern

al Q

uan

tum

Eff

icie

ncy

, %

c-Si:H junction a-Si:H junction

AM 1.5 global spectrum

Tandem Junction Increases Voltage Collects More Light Enhances Stability

Thin Film –Tandem Junction Harvest the Solar Spectrum

Wavelength, microns

Glass Substrate

TCO

Amorphous

Silicon

Back Contact

Page 38: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

38

Layer Deposition Thin Film Tandem Cell: a-Si / µc-Si

Amorphous Silicon

Microcrystalline

Silicon

Transparent Conductor

Glass Substrate

Back Contact

PVD (Inline System)

Applied SunFab™ PECVD system

1-2m

250-500nm

n p

p

Doped layer: typically 20-30nm

PECVD (Batch System)

n n+

ATON,

Applied Materials

300nm

1m

Page 39: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

39

Flexible Solar – Expanding Applications

• Lightweight

• Conformable

Building Integrated PV

Non-Rigid Applications

Flexcell

Flexcell

PowerFilm

Uni-Solar

ISS Saaku

Maier Sports

SonnenEnergieWinnen

Flickr Photo

Page 40: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

40

Excellent Market Opportunity

• Annual lightweight rooftop opportunity ~4 GWp

– Worldwide for PV < 10 kg / m2

• Excellent Fit for Flat Industrial Rooftops

– Annual new & replacement roofs in western Europe

represents a surface area >2 GWp equivalent PV.

• Meets EU Feed-In-Tariff Requirements

– Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV)

• Compliments Existing Technologies

• Scale: Multi-million m2/year of coated film

Uni-Solarr

Flexcell

Page 41: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

41

Addressing Flex PV Technologies

FLEXIBLE

SUBSTRATE

BACK

CONTACT

ABSORBER

LAYER

TRANSPARENT

CONDUCTOR

Flex PV

Back

Contact CIGS

Thin Film

Silicon

CdTe

TCO

Common equipment

solutions drive costs

down for all players

Unique equipment

solutions required

Page 42: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

42

Traditional Thin Film Technologies: a-Si, a-Si/µc-Si, CTS, CI(G)S

Large area deposition technologies for all layers (PVD, CVD)

High deposition rate technologies with high performance layers

Innovative cell architectures for higher efficiencies

Page 43: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

43

c-Si value chain

Relevant steps for vacuum deposited thin films:

# ARC/passivation: from AP-CVD TiO2 to PE-CVD or PVD SiNx

# metallization: from evaporated Ti-Pd-Ag to screen printing of Al- (back) and

Ag- (front) paste towards future Al - evaporation

Si purification Poly

Silicon Ingots Wafering

Cell Production / Manufacture Laminate Module Installation

Saw Damage

Emitter Formation

Passivation Metallization Edge

Isolation Inspect /

Test

Ph

oto

Page 44: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

44

c-Si Technology

Existing films, eg SiNx, with high throughput and accuracy

Todays metalization with screen printed Ag- paste to be exchanged with evaporated Al- films, which have significantly lower material cost

After medium term introduction of decreasing thickness of wire cut wafers (from 180 – 200 µm today to less than 100 um) there will ultimately be 10 µm crystalline Si films by high rate deposition from TCS – if done properly efficiencies above 20% may be reached. Additionally the two worlds of stable and high efficiency c-Si and the integrated series connection of „traditional Thin Film“ may be combined

In the long term nanotechnology may help to have band gap tayloring allowing principally multibandgap Si cells with the potential for efficiencies beyond 30%

Page 45: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

45

Long-term PV Roadmap Development of Si-Thickness for various technologies

0,01

0,1

1

10

100

1000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Sil

ico

n T

hic

kn

es

s [

µm

]

20% → 25% → 30%+

15% → 20% → 25%

10% → 15% → 20%

440µm WT, 400µm KL Efficiency

Development

300nm a-Si (Single Jct.)

Long Term

1,5µm a-Si / µcSi

(Tandem Jct.)

50µm

wafer ”curfless cut“ and ribbons

120µm WT, 100µm KL

180µm WT (Wafer Thickness)

140µm KL (Kerf Loss)

Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates, 2009

Multi jct &very thin

Intrinsic layers

Integrated Thin Film

and c-Si approach

c-Si wafer

Page 46: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

46

As deposited (amorphous Si-layers)

70nm

Si SiO2

Si-Substrate

0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0 5nm Si, 1100°C 4nm Si, 1100°C 3nm Si, 1100°C 2nm Si, 1100°C

Inte

nsit

ät

[a.u

.]

Energie [eV]

Oxide thickness:

3nm, 10 periods

Energy [eV] Source:

Enhance the Absorption Si/SiO2-Super Lattice for Band Gap Shifting

Page 47: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

47

47

Multi Junction Solar Cells Combine Materials with Different Absorbance Behaviour

500 1000 1500 2000 25000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600 L

eis

tun

gsd

ich

te [

W/m

m]

AM15

GaInP

GaInAs

Ge

Wellenlänge [nm]

Quelle:

Po

we

r d

en

sity [W

/m2µ

m]

Wave length [nm]

Page 48: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

48

Source

48

Ga0.65In0.35P

Tunnel diode

Ga0.83In0.17As

Tunnel diode

Ge

ARC

n-graded Ga1-x

InxAs buffer layer

p-Ge substrate (100)

p+-AlGaInAs - barrier layer

p-GaInAs - base

n-GaInAs - emitter

n+-AlGaInP/AlInAs - barrier layer

p++-AlGaAs

p+-AlGaInP - barrier layer

p-GaInP - base

GaInP - undoped layer

n-GaInP - emitter

n+-AlInP - window layer

cap layer

n++-GaAs or GaInP

p+-GaInP - barrier layer

GaInAs - undoped layer

p+-GaInAs - barrier layer

front contact

rear contact

p++-AlGaAs

n++-GaInAs

n- doped window- and nucleation layer

n-Ge diffused emitter

1.7 eV

1.3 eV

0.7 eV

Photovoltaic Optoelectronics

Recent world record of 41% at 500x concentration

Page 49: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

49

Concentrated PV Combine Mutli-Level Junctions with Optical Magnification

IBM:

Concentration

x2000, liquid met-

al cooling system

with thin layer

of Ga and In

Challenges

High efficiency solar cell

Optical system with tracking systems

Cooling the solar cell

Source: Sungri

Page 50: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

50

Performance of a Concentrix System 5,8 kW Nominal Power

Data: July 27th 2008, Seville Spain

For comparison: typical curve for flat panel

Page 51: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

51

High Optical Concentration Photovoltaic Lorca, Spain

Source: Concentrix Solar

Page 52: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

Technology Evolution

ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates

0 5 10 15 20 25

0

0 5 10 15 20 25

0

25

75

100

Module Efficiency [%]

today c-Si

TF

a-Si-pin/pin,

a-Si/µc-Si,

II-VI

dye a-Si-pin II-VI

r/mg

r/mg

mc

mc

Cz

Cz

+ (4 to 5) years *

+ (10 to 13) years *

Si III -V

50

30

Mo

du

le p

ric

e (

rel.

Un

its)

@ - (8 to 10) %

price decrease

per year

Beyond

20 years

OPV

r ribbon mg metallurgical grade Silicon mc multicrystalline Cz Czochralski CPV concentrated PV OPV organic PV

Page 53: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

53

Share of PV Technologies

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

New Technologies

TF

cSi

Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates, 2008

Page 54: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Cu

mm

ula

ted

PV

Po

wer

[GW

]

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Ye

ary

in

sta

lle

d P

V P

ow

er

[GW

]

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

An

nu

al

PV

Gro

wth

Ra

teRES-thinking 2050 Worldwide PV Growth Scenario till 2050

PV Growth Rate PV Volume Growth

CAGR 2000-2009: 45%

Ref: EREC and EPIA 2010

Cu

mu

late

d P

V P

ow

er

[GW

]

Yearl

y I

nsta

lled

PV

Po

wer

[GW

]

Source: EREC RES-Thinking, 03/2010

Page 55: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

10

100

1000

10000

100000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

in T

Wh

/ a

1% of total

10% of total

Total electricity production

PV electricity production

EU-27

100% target for RES of final energy

All RES sources to contribute

43% electricity share assumed (vs. 37% in [r]evolution scenario)

World (OECD)

80% target for RES of final energy

43% electricity share assumed, too

PV covers about 1/4 of electricity and about 1/6 of final energy demand

Total PV energy supply in 2050: 11k TWh/a

PV Growth Assumption for 2050

RES-thinking 2050 – World PV Growth Scenario till 2050

Ref: EREC 2010 and W. Hoffmann personal estimates

Page 56: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

56

Primary Energy Need in 2100

600.000 TWh

120.000 TWh

Extrapolation with today's tech- nologies and energy sources

2000

2100

2000

2100

Assuming energy saving, Shift to electricity and consequent use of renewables

ref.: World Energy Council & W. Hoffmann personal estimates

200.000 TWh

100.000 TWh

Same quality of life with much less energy

70.000 TWh

100.000 TWh

Schmid & Sterner (2010)

Authors estimate (2010)

2100

Page 57: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

IEA PV Roadmap Vision

PV cumulative installed capacity to reach 900 GW in 2030 and 3000 GW in 2050

ETP 2010

Hi-RE Scenario

Page 58: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

Projection for Future RE Portfolio for a 100% Global End Energy Coverage

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Towards 2050 Towards 2100

RE

S s

ha

re in

%Non RES

Other RES

Bio Mass

Wind

STC

Solar Thermie

PV

ref.: W. Hoffmann, own estimates 09/2010

Page 59: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

Source:

110418 59 Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – SVC 2011

The World Wide Super Grid

Sou

rce:

So

lar

Mill

enn

ium

AG

, Erl

ange

n

Super Grid „EUMENA“ 2010 - 2050

Super Grid „NAFTA“ 2020 - 2060

Super Grid „ASIA“ 2030 - 2070

Super Grid „AUSTRALIA“ 2040 - 2080

Super Grid „WORLD WIDE“ 2050 - 2100

Electricity

wind off-/ on shore

Solar Thermal Power Plant

PV Solar Electricity

Other Renewables

Biofuel/Hydrogen

for Transportation

Solar Thermal

for heating and cooling

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

5

5

5

3

3

5

: W. Hoffmann 2003

Page 60: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

Main

Color

Palette

Secondary

Color

Palette

CMYK

0/25/100/0

RGB

253/196/0

CMYK

5/80/100/0

RGB

224/81/21

CMYK

0/0/0/100

RGB 0/0/0

CMYK

5/95/100/0

RGB

227/50/38

CMYK

0/70/0/10

RGB

218/104/157

CMYK

50/80/0/0

RGB

148/83/161

CMYK

100/5/5/10

RGB

0/152/203

CMYK

30/8/100/15

RGB

165/175/41

CMYK

0/0/0/60

RGB

98/100/100

60

Munich, 28/10/2009 TITLE OF THE PRESENTATION

Feria Valencia, Valencia, Spain

5th World Conference on

Photovoltaic Energy Conversion

The most inspiring Platform for the global PV Solar Sector

www.photovoltaic-conference.com

Conference: 6-10 September 2010 Exhibition: 6-9 September 2010

25th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition

25th

European Photovoltaic

Solar Energy

Conference and Exhibition

36th

US IEEE

Photovoltaic

Specialists Conference

20th

Asia/Pacific PV

Science and Engineering

Conference

Page 61: Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics ... · Source: • Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future • The power of Price Experience Curves – for

Applied Solar Expertise

Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE

Vice President EPIA

Consultant Applied Materials Solar

Member of Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and Supervisory Board of ISFH and Helmholtz

Thank you very much!