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Applied SustainabilityClass 3: Sustainability FramesPB FisherSpring 2013

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Trends since Industrial RevINPUTs Exponential Increase in Population Exponential increase in Econ Growth Exponential increase in Energy/Energy Demand Globalization (shift in governance from local) Urbanization (more live in cities today than rural) Power US Asia (as population/econ center)

OUTPUTS Explosion in GHG Emissions and Pollution Enviro Degradation/Biodiversity Loss Dramatic Increase in Inequality (between rich/poor)

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1972 Projections: Limits

2004 Projections: Limits

“Limits to Growth”

Meadows, Meadows, Randers, Behrens

Unsustainability+Sachs, Common Wealth

1. Economic Convergence: per capita income in poor countries will continue to converge with rich

World Economy will be MUCH bigger by 2050 Avg income for developing countries will be ~$40k, which is the avg income for US

in 2005, while in US it will be ~$90k.

2. More People, but higher incomes for more people ** Must stabilize population at 8b; then econ growth can be positive if we

can manage environmental side effects.

3. Asian Century: Historic shift in the economic gravity of World4. Urban Century: Continuing urbanizing trends

Means that cities have tremendous potential, but also will be sites for major destruction: pollution, disasters, and disease with higher density

5. Poverty Trap: Poorest billion are not achieving econ growth, which is dangerous:

1. Death from starvation2. Lack basic needs (food, water, nourishment, shelter)3. Lack political and economic stability4. Most population growth5. Most enviro destructive6. Most potential for conflict7. Cycle is self reinforcing, not self-correcting requires global policies and funding

6 Trends that will Shape the 21st Century

Unsustainability+Sachs, Common Wealth

6. Environmental Challenges: Rapid econ growth (in a linear system) means unprecedented enviro destruction; climate change will intensify many of the challenges

I = P*A*T (IPAT equation) By 2050:

P = increase 40% (1.4 fold increase) A = increase 4 fold P * A = 6 fold increase I (env harm) = 6 times more destruction, if T is constant Technology works both ways: can protect or destroy

If world is already unsustainable, what will a 6 fold increase in the

destruction do? Based on this equation, two things must happen if we agree A is

necessary, reduce P (population) and make technology sustainable

Environmental Challenges in the 21st Century

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Sustainability FramingOrr, Mykleby and Senge

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Orr, 3 Missing Pieces1. Taught “nothing of ecology, systems, and

interconnectedness.” Blind spot for country that is “determined to grow and armed with

the philosophy of econ improvement” As a result, failed to see our mutual interdep and vulnerability

2. Tech Incompetency: Upwardly mobile (academic track) became tech illiterate or incompetent; yet, they increasingly looked for tech to solve problems.

3. Political Disconnection: Even if we understood ecological interdep and tech savvy, we still lacked the political will and wherewithal to connect our values to “things of livelihood and location, soils and stewardship. We mistook the large abstractions of nationalism, flag, and Presidential authority for patriotism.”

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Orr, Taking Place Seriously “a world that takes both its enviro and prosperity seriously

over the long run must pay careful attention to the patterns of connect local and the regional with global.” (p160)

Why Local is globally important in Preserving “Place”1. We are place-centric beings shaped in locality2. Env mvmt is shaped by people to preserve/protect particular

places3. Perceived global problems can be solved through lots of local

solutions4. Purely global perspective creates abstractions5. We have been unsuccessful at making a global economy

ecologically sustainable—probably can’t do it

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Senge : 3 Ideas for a Sustainable Future (pp. 1-13)

1. Must take Future Gens into account2. Institutions Matter: world is shaped by people, but also networks

of businesses, gov’ts and NGOs. Fisher: Systems 3. All “Real Change” is grounded in “new ways of thinking and

perceiving” need to work differently than we have in the past

“The difference between many random initiatives that add up to little and a revolution that can transform society itself boils down to a shift in thinking.” (p11)

“Just as our way of thinking got us into the situation (Industrial Age Bubble)…so too, will our thinking—differently—help us find out way out. Solving isolated social and environmental problems will not get us very far; at best it will provide short-term relief. Neither will preserving the status quo while imagining naively that new technologies alone will somehow save the day.” (p41)

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Senge, How we got here… Shifting the Burden “Business execs have been doing this for years, hiring

consultants to sort out their mgmt problems, safety specialists to reduce the # of accidents, and, today, enviro specialists, such as pollution experts, to scrub emissions from smokestacks…The net effect of decades of shifting the burden to experts is that many people today regard issues involving water, waste and toxicity, energy and community health as ‘someone else’s problems’.”

“While many businesspeople often have strong views about the ineffectiveness of gov’t regulation, many also simultaneously advocate that it’s up to gov’t to tackle such problems. And rather than working with gov’t…they have shifted the burden to lobbyists who fight to preserve the status quo”.

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Problem: Way of thinking

“But the time for shifting responsibility to others, or covering up deep problems with simplistic solutions that only make the problems ‘go away’ for a short time, is running out.” (p22)

We have gotten into this mess by a “way of thinking that focuses on parts and neglects the whole.’

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Mykleby, Security & Sustainability

Bottom Line: “national security is the responsibility of every American. 21st C security has just as much to do with the vibrancy and resiliency of the essential systems that operate within our borders as it does with perceived threats lurking outside out borders. Our national systems are intimately intertwined with the larger global system that constitutes human civilization as we understand it—food, water, energy, education, industry, mobility, information, the build environment, public health, and the global ecology.”

Sustainability as a central, coalescing grand strategic concept, would serve to inform out national policy decisions regarding investments, security, econ development, energy, the environment and engagement well into this century.