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Lal Bahadur Shastri Institute of Management, Delhi LBSIM Working Paper Series LBSIM/WP/2020/05 Applying a Bootstrap Analysis to Evaluate the performance of Indian Mutual Funds Anuj Verma August,2020

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    Lal Bahadur Shastri Institute of Management, Delhi

    LBSIM Working Paper Series

    LBSIM/WP/2020/05

    Applying a Bootstrap Analysis to

    Evaluate the performance of Indian

    Mutual Funds

    Anuj Verma

    August,2020

  • 2

    LBSIM Working Papers indicate research in progress by the author(s) and are brought out to elicit ideas,

    comments, insights and to encourage debate. The views expressed in LBSIM Working Papers are those of the

    author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the LBSIM nor its Board of Governors.

  • 3

    WP/August2020/05

    LBSIM Working Paper

    Research Cell

    Applying a Bootstrap Analysis to Evaluate the Performance of Indian Mutual

    Funds

    ANUJ VERMA

    Associate Professor- Lal Bahadur Shastri Institute of Management, Delhi

    August,2020

    ABSTRACT

    There are many investment avenues in India, but there is lack of awareness and information about

    these financial investments among the people. As a result, an investor does not know which avenue

    will provide best return. If the person does not have knowledge of how to get maximum benefit

    with minimum risk, then one should invest in mutual fund. There are many types of funds and

    schemes available in mutual fund market.

    To fulfill the purpose of the Research paper, an extensive research was done to understand the

    working of the Mutual Fund industry of India. The primary objective of the paper is to know

    which funds give best results under their respective fund category. Forty Indian open-ended large

    cap equity-oriented schemes having highest assets under management were selected. The data,

    which is the daily NAV of the equity funds and the closing of Nifty Index, were collected for a

    period of five years starting from 01/04/2013 to 31/03/2018. Finally, Bootstrapping technique

    has been used to evaluate the performance of mutual funds.

    Keywords: Financial Investment, Mutual Fund, Fund Category

    JEL Classification: G24, G30, G11.

  • 4

    Applying a Bootstrap Analysis to Evaluate the Performance of Indian Mutual

    Funds

    INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

    India has a very dynamic financial sector which is undergoing rapid changes, both in existing and

    new financial firms. This sector includes financial institutions such as- non-banking financial

    companies, commercial banks, co-operatives, insurance companies, mutual funds, pension funds

    and other related fintech entities. The Government of India has introduced several reforms to

    liberalize, regulate and enhance this industry. The asset management industry in India is among

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    the fastest growing industry in the world. Currently, 44 Asset Management Companies (AMCs) are

    operating in the country. The Asset Under Management (AUM) of the Indian mutual fund industry

    has been increasing rapidly with a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15%. It made a leap

    of nearly 22 % from financial year 2016-17 to 2017-18 and the total AUM stood at Rs23.36 lakh

    crore on March 2018. The below bar graph indicates the growth of AUM from 2008- 2018.

    The amount of equity (MF) portfolios have increased to of 2.27 billion in 2018 which was recorded

    the highest. The number of listed companies on NSE and BSE increased from 6,445 in FY10 to

    7,501 in March 2018. The market capitalization of all the companies listed on the BSE reached a

    record Rs 150 lakh crore (US$ 2.33 trillion) backed by high gains in the broader market. To raise

    capital, companies are now preferring to opt for Initial Public Offers (IPOs). This is because the

    number of retail investors opting for equity market have increased. The total amount of Initial

    Public Offerings increased to Rs 84,357 crore (US$ 13,089 million) by the end of FY18.

    The Bombay Stock Exchange listed companies have reached market capitalization of Rs 150 lakh

    crore. Also, by the end of financial year 2017-18 the market for Initial Public Offer (IPO) stood at

    nearly Rs84,357 crore.

  • 6

    The Government of India has realized the importance of small merchants and have relaxed the

    norms and regulations of turnover up to Rs 2 crore. This will in turn help them to pay 6% of profit

    in tax which was previously 8% of total turnover. The Government of India has also launched the

    'Bharat 22' exchange traded fund (ETF), which will be managed by ICICIPrudential Mutual Fund,

    and is looking to raise Rs 8,000 crore (US$ 1.22 billion) initially. According to Association of

    Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) the mutual fund sector has witnessed huge investment in the form

    of SIP and is expected to see a growth of more than three times in investor’s accounts which will

    turn up to 130 million by 2020. RBI has allowed 100% foreign investment under the automatic

    route in “other financial services”. The Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has allowed

    exchanges in India to operate in equity and commodity segment simultaneously starting from

    October 2018. All these initiatives would go a long way to enhance the growth of financial

    industry.

    OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

    1) To evaluate and compare the performance of various mutual fund schemes.

    2) To know which schemes has given best performance under their respective fund category.

    3) To apply bootstrap statistical analysis and examine the impact of market, size of

    portfolio and value of portfolio on the performance of mutual funds in India.

    LITERATURE REVIEW

    “Applying a Bootstrap Analysis to Evaluate the Performance of Chinese Mutual Funds”

    Long-Hui Chen and Hsin-Hung Chen, 2017

    In this paper, the performance of Chinese mutual funds has been evaluated by the authors. For the

    empirical study, 434 open ended equity schemes were selected which exist from January 2001.

    The schemes that provided returns and relevant data for at least two years were taken into the

    sample set. For evaluating the performance of mutual funds statistical tools such as- Cahart four

    factor model and Jensen Alpha were used. The results from these statistical tools showed that

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    excellent management skills were demonstrated by the fund managers while selecting the stocks.

    After using performance measures bootstrapping analysis was done on the sample. The alphas

    were bootstrapped and then ranked in descending order. After comparing actual alphas with

    bootstrapped alphas it was concluded that the positive returns generated by the mutual fund

    schemes was due to stock picking ability of the fund manager and not due to luck.

    “Performance of equity mutual funds in Brazil- A bootstrap analysis”

    Marco Antonio Laes, Marcos Eugenio da Silva, 2014

    This paper evaluates the performance of mutual funds in Brazil. For analysis, daily nav of the

    mutual fund schemes were collected for ten years (2002-2012). There were two criteria for

    considering a scheme in a sample set. The first criteria was a scheme should have atleast one year’s

    history and the second criteria is that the net asset value of the fund should exceed $2 million. The

    authors have used Cahart four factor model to evaluate the Brazilian mutual funds. It was found

    that out of the four factors small minus big and market were two factors that were impacted by the

    2008 crisis the most. Then bootstrap simulation was done to identify the luck factor present in the

    schemes. It was observed that the returns generated by the schemes were mostly due to luck than

    skill of the manager. Also, bad management of the managers has led to poor performance of the

    fund.

    METHODOLOGY

    DATA COLLECTION METHOD

    For the purpose of the research the information and details were collected via secondary data. To

    have an overview of mutual funds industry in India, secondary information have been collected from

    newspapers, reference books and fact sheets. The data used for calculations such as NAV history

    of a fund, returns generated by portfolio have been collected from websites of Association of

    Mutual Funds India (AMFI), Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Asset Management Companies (AMC),

    Value Research and other sources. Forty Indian open-ended large cap equity schemes were selected

    which have the highest Asset Under Management (AUM) and their daily NAV were collected for

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    a period of five years starting from 01/04/2013 to 31/03/2018. Also, every scheme’s benchmark

    index data was collected in order to obtain return of the market.

    TOOLS

    The statistical tools used to evaluate the performance of mutual fund schemes are-

    a) Sharpe Measure

    b) Treynor Measure

    c) Jensen Alpha Measure

    d) M square Measure

    e) Bootstrap Procedure

    CALCULATIONS

    1) Sharpe Measure- To calculate Sharpe measure, three years return of the portfolio,

    three years risk free return government securities and standard deviation has been

    used.

    2) Treynor Measure- To calculate Treynor measure, three years risk free return of

    government securities, portfolio and fund’s beta is used.

    3) Jensen Alpha- To calculate Jensen Alpha, past three years return of the fund, past three

    years risk free return of government securities, average three years return of benchmark

    index (Nifty) and fund’s beta is used

    4) M-Square Measure- For calculating M- Square, Sharpe ratio, standard deviation of the

    excess return and three years risk free return government securities is used.

  • 9

    PERFORMANCE EVALUATION ON DIFFERENT PARAMETERS

    1. Return- An investor cannot depend solely on a year’s return. One must always look at

    the returns given by the fund at various time frames. This will tell how well and

    consistent the fund has been performing in the last few years

    The below table shows the returns generated by various equity funds & balanced funds (also called

    hybrid equity fund).

    Fund name 1 year

    return

    (%) as of

    08-05-

    2018

    3 years

    return (%)

    as of

    08-05-2018

    5 years

    return (%)

    as of

    08-05-2018

    10 years

    return (%)

    as of

    08-05-2018

    All equity 12.92 11.01 16.60 11.21

    Large cap 12.92 10.01 14.01 9.21

    Mid and small cap 13.02 14.83 24.79 14.41

    Balanced fund equity oriented 8.34 9.44 14.84 10.69

    Equity funds- technology 37.55 11.78 21.30 11.12

    Equity funds- pharma 1.36 -1.58 12.98 16.22

    Equity funds - infrastructure 10.01 11.12 17.75 5.96

    Equity funds- diversified 12.33 11.04 17.84 10.55

    Equity funds- thematic 13.40 14.68 18.74 11.87

    ELSS 11.57 12.41 19.03 10.59

    Source: Valueresearch

  • 10

    2. Diversification- the main reason people prefer mutual funds over investing directly in

    equity market is because the funds diversify the risk by allocating small amount of assets

    into various sectors. These asset allocation details are given in scheme information

    document (SID) of every fund.

    3. Expense Ratio- Expense ratio is a percentage of asset under management taken by the

    fund company for performing their services for investors. The NAV of a fund is declared

    after accounting for expense ratio. Expense ratio = fund’s operating expenses/ average

    asset under management. The below table shows the expense ratio of all selected

    schemes

    Name Expense Ratio Name Expense Ratio

    Aditya Birla Sun Life Frontline

    Equity Fund (G)

    1.97% Canara Robeco Bluechip

    Equity Fund (G)

    3%

    SBI Blue Chip Fund-Regular

    Plan (G)

    1.98% Aditya Birla Sun Life

    Index Fund

    0.80%

    ICICI Prudential Bluechip

    Fund (G)

    2.1% Edelweiss Large Cap Fund

    (G)

    1.60%

    HDFC Top 100 Fund (G) 2.14% SBI Nifty Index Fund 0.65%

    Reliance Large Cap Fund (G)

    2.26% Taurus Largecap Equity

    Fund

    2.80%

    Franklin India Bluechip Fund

    (G)

    2.03% Baroda Large cap Fund (G)

    2.95%

    UTI - Master Share (G)

    2.33% Essel Large Cap Equity

    Fund

    2.79%

    Axis Bluechip Fund (G) 2.29% JM Core 11 Fund 1.56%

    JM Large Cap Fund (G)

    2.08% Principal Nifty 100 Equal

    Weight Fund

    0.60%

    DSP Top 100 Equity Fund (G)

    2.23% Reliance Index Fund -

    Sensex Plan

    0.98%

    Kotak Bluechip Fund (G) 2.16% Quant Focused Fund 2.50%

  • 11

    BNP PARIBAS LARGE CAP

    Fund (G)

    2.33% Aditya Birla Sun Life

    Focused Equity Fund

    2.03%

  • 12

    Tata Large Cap Fund (G)

    1.42% Motilal Oswal Focused

    25 Fund

    2.07%

    HSBC Large Cap Equity Fund

    (G)

    2.5% Sundaram Select

    Focus Fund

    2.46%

    L&T India Large Cap Fund (G)

    2.67% HDFC Index Fund - Sensex

    Plan

    0.30%

    IDFC Large Cap Fund (G) 2.62% LIC MF Index-Sensex Plan 1.55%

    IDBI India Top 100 Equity

    Fund (G)

    2.54% Tata Index Nifty Fund

    1.27%

    Indiabulls Blue Chip Fund (G) 2.51% Taurus Nifty Index Fund 1.67%

    LIC MF Large Cap Fund (G) 2.55% LIC MF Index-Nifty Plan 1.20%

    Invesco India Largecap Fund

    (G)

    2.64% IDFC Nifty Fund

    0.27%

  • 13

    LARGE CAP FUNDS

    According to SEBI, top 100 companies in terms of market capitalization will come under the large

    cap segment.

    Name of funds Sharpe

    Measure

    Treynor

    Measure

    Jensen Alpha

    Measure

    M Square

    Measure

    Aditya Birla Sun Life

    Frontline Equity Fund (G)

    0.70 1.98 0.05 12.27%

    SBI Blue Chip Fund (G) 0.52 0.96 0.04 10.55%

    ICICI Prudential Bluechip

    Fund (G)

    0.86 2.51 0.06 13.75%

    HDFC Top 100 Fund (G) 1.04 4.16 0.09 15.87%

    Reliance Large Cap Fund (G) 0.86 2.5 0.06 14.47%

    Franklin India Bluechip

    Fund(G)

    0.52 0.95 0.04 10.54%

    UTI - Master Share(G) 0.73 2.23 0.06 11.84%

    Axis Bluechip Fund (G) 1.42 5.43 0.11 14.49%

    JM Large Cap Fund-(G) 0.51 0.95 0.04 9.29%

    DSP Top 100 Equity Fund

    (G)

    0.49 0.48 0.04 10.28%

    Kotak Bluechip Fund (G) 0.55 1.64 0.05 10.83%

  • 14

    BNP PARIBAS LARGE

    CAP Fund (G)

    0.44 0.14 0.04 9.95%

    Tata Large Cap Fund Regular

    Plan (G)

    0.53 1.57 0.05 10.80%

    HSBC Large Cap Equity

    Fund(G)

    0.72 2.14 0.05 13.15

    L&T India Large Cap Fund

    Regular Plan (G)

    0.53 1.55 0.04 10.35

    IDFC Large Cap Fund-

    Regular Plan (G)

    0.76 2.28 0.07 13.05

    IDBI India Top 100 Equity

    Fund (G)

    0.32 0.02 0.03 8.87%

    Indiabulls Blue Chip Fund

    (G)

    0.79 2.3 0.06 13.06%

    LIC MF Large Cap Fund (G) 0.78 2.3 0.06 11.56%

    Invesco India Largecap

    Fund(G)

    0.67 1.79 0.05 11.35%

    Canara Robeco Bluechip

    Equity Fund (G)

    0.99 3.99 0.08 12.50%

    Aditya Birla Sun Life

    Index Fund

    0.80 2.36 0.06 12.00%

    Edelweiss Large Cap Fund

    (G)

    0.75 2.25 0.06 12.10

    SBI Nifty Index Fund 0.88 2.54 0.07 12.60%

  • 15

    Taurus Largecap Equity Fund 0.02 0.01 0.01 6.50%

    Baroda Large cap Fund (G) 0.60 1.78 0.05 10.40%

    Essel Large Cap Equity Fund 0.45 0.44 0.04 10.10%

    JM Core 11 Fund 1.00 3.99 0.11 16.70%

    Principal Nifty 100 Equal

    Weight Fund

    0.22 0.01 0.02 8.50%

    Reliance Index Fund -

    Sensex Plan

    0.97 3.52 0.06 12.70%

    Quant Focused Fund 0.38 0.02 0.03 9.60%

    Aditya Birla Sun Life

    Focused Equity Fund

    0.50 0.94 0.04 10.60%

    Motilal Oswal Focused

    25 Fund

    0.53 1.39 0.04 10.70%

    Sundaram Select

    Focus Fund

    0.83 2.49 0.06 12.60%

    HDFC Index Fund - Sensex

    Plan

    1.09 4.16 0.1 13.70%

    LIC MF Index-Sensex Plan 0.91 2.96 0.06 12.30%

    Tata Index Nifty Fund 0.90 2.61 0.07 12.60%

    Taurus Nifty Index Fund 0.92 3.22 0.07 12.20%

    LIC MF Index-Nifty Plan 0.74 2.23 0.06 11.70%

    IDFC Nifty Fund 0.96 3.42 0.06 13.10%

  • 16

    RANKING ACCORDING TO MEASURES

    Rank Sharpe Measure Treynor Measure Jensen Alpha

    Measure

    M Square Measure

    1 Axis Bluechip Fund Axis Bluechip Fund Axis Bluechip Fund Axis Bluechip Fund

    2 HDFC

    Index Fund -

    Sensex Plan

    HDFC Index Fund -

    Sensex Plan

    HDFC Index Fund -

    Sensex Plan

    HDFC Index Fund -

    Sensex Plan

    3 HDFC Top 100

    Fund (G)

    HDFC Top 100 Fund

    (G)

    HDFC Top 100 Fund

    (G)

    HDFC Top 100 Fund

    (G)

    4 JM Core 11 Fund JM Core 11 Fund JM Core 11 Fund JM Core 11 Fund

    5 Canara Robeco

    Bluechip Equity

    Fund (G)

    Canara Robeco

    Bluechip Equity

    Fund (G)

    Canara Robeco

    Bluechip Equity

    Fund (G)

    Canara Robeco

    Bluechip Equity

    Fund (G)

    6 Reliance

    Index Fund -

    Sensex Plan

    Reliance

    Index Fund - Sensex

    Plan

    Reliance

    Index Fund - Sensex

    Plan

    Reliance

    Index Fund - Sensex

    Plan

    7 IDFC Nifty Fund IDFC Nifty Fund IDFC Nifty Fund IDFC Nifty Fund

    8 Taurus Nifty

    Index Fund

    Taurus Nifty

    Index Fund

    Taurus Nifty

    Index Fund

    Taurus Nifty

    Index Fund

    9 LIC MF Index-

    Sensex Plan

    LIC MF Index-

    Sensex Plan

    LIC MF Index-

    Sensex Plan

    LIC MF Index-

    Sensex Plan

    10 Tata Index

    Nifty Fund

    Tata Index

    Nifty Fund

    Tata Index

    Nifty Fund

    Tata Index

    Nifty Fund

  • 17

    11 SBI Nifty

    Index Fund

    SBI Nifty

    Index Fund

    SBI Nifty

    Index Fund

    SBI Nifty

    Index Fund

    12 ICICI Prudential

    Bluechip Fund (G)

    ICICI Prudential

    Bluechip Fund (G)

    ICICI Prudential

    Bluechip Fund (G)

    ICICI Prudential

    Bluechip Fund (G)

    13 Reliance Large Cap

    Fund (G)

    Reliance Large Cap

    Fund (G)

    Reliance Large Cap

    Fund (G)

    Reliance Large Cap

    Fund (G)

    14 Sundaram Select

    Focus Fund

    Sundaram Select

    Focus Fund

    Sundaram Select

    Focus Fund

    Sundaram Select

    Focus Fund

    15 Aditya Birla Sun

    Life Index Fund

    Aditya Birla Sun Life

    Index Fund

    Aditya Birla Sun Life

    Index Fund

    Aditya Birla Sun

    Life Index Fund

    16 Indiabulls Blue

    Chip Fund (G)

    Indiabulls Blue Chip

    Fund (G)

    Indiabulls Blue Chip

    Fund (G)

    Indiabulls Blue Chip

    Fund (G)

    17 LIC MF Large Cap

    Fund (G)

    LIC MF Large Cap

    Fund (G)

    LIC MF Large Cap

    Fund (G)

    LIC MF Large Cap

    Fund (G)

    18 IDFC Large Cap

    Fund-Regular Plan

    (G)

    IDFC Large Cap

    Fund-Regular Plan

    (G)

    IDFC Large Cap

    Fund-Regular Plan

    (G)

    IDFC Large Cap

    Fund-Regular Plan

    (G)

    19 Edelweiss Large

    Cap Fund (G)

    Edelweiss Large Cap

    Fund (G)

    Edelweiss Large Cap

    Fund (G)

    Edelweiss Large Cap

    Fund (G)

    20 LIC MF Index-

    Nifty Plan

    LIC MF Index-Nifty

    Plan

    LIC MF Index-Nifty

    Plan

    LIC MF Index-Nifty

    Plan

    21 UTI - Master

    Share(G)

    UTI - Master

    Share(G)

    UTI - Master

    Share(G)

    UTI - Master

    Share(G)

    22 HSBC Large Cap

    Equity Fund(G)

    HSBC Large Cap

    Equity Fund(G)

    HSBC Large Cap

    Equity Fund(G)

    HSBC Large Cap

    Equity Fund(G)

  • 18

    23 Aditya Birla Sun

    Life Frontline

    Equity Fund (G)

    Aditya Birla SunLife

    Frontline Equity

    Fund (G)

    Aditya Birla Sun Life

    Frontline Equity

    Fund (G)

    Aditya Birla Sun

    Life Frontline Equity

    Fund (G)

    24 Invesco India

    Largecap Fund(G)

    Invesco India

    Largecap Fund(G)

    Invesco India

    Largecap Fund(G)

    Invesco India

    Largecap Fund(G)

    25 Baroda Large cap

    Fund (G)

    Baroda Large cap

    Fund (G)

    Baroda Large cap

    Fund (G)

    Baroda Large cap

    Fund (G)

    26 Kotak Bluechip

    Fund (G)

    Kotak Bluechip Fund

    (G)

    Kotak Bluechip Fund

    (G)

    Kotak Bluechip

    Fund (G)

    27 Tata Large Cap

    Fund Regular Plan

    (G)

    Tata Large Cap Fund

    Regular Plan (G)

    Tata Large Cap Fund

    Regular Plan (G)

    Tata Large Cap Fund

    Regular Plan (G)

    28 L&T India Large

    Cap Fund Regular

    Plan (G)

    L&T India Large Cap

    Fund Regular Plan

    (G)

    L&T India Large Cap

    Fund Regular Plan

    (G)

    L&T India Large Cap

    Fund Regular Plan

    (G)

    29 Motilal Oswal

    Focused 25 Fund

    Motilal Oswal

    Focused 25 Fund

    Motilal Oswal

    Focused 25 Fund

    Motilal Oswal

    Focused 25 Fund

    30 SBI Blue Chip

    Fund (G)

    SBI Blue Chip Fund

    (G)

    SBI Blue Chip Fund

    (G)

    SBI Blue Chip Fund

    (G)

    31 Franklin India

    Bluechip Fund(G)

    Franklin India

    Bluechip Fund(G)

    Franklin India

    Bluechip Fund(G)

    Franklin India

    Bluechip Fund(G)

    32 JM Large Cap

    Fund-(G)

    JM Large Cap Fund-

    (G)

    JM Large Cap Fund-

    (G)

    JM Large Cap Fund-

    (G)

  • 19

    33 Aditya Birla Sun

    Life Focused

    Equity Fund

    Aditya Birla Sun Life

    Focused Equity Fund

    Aditya Birla Sun Life

    Focused Equity Fund

    Aditya Birla Sun

    Life Focused

    Equity Fund

    34 DSP Top 100

    Equity Fund (G)

    DSP Top 100 Equity

    Fund (G)

    DSP Top 100 Equity

    Fund (G)

    DSP Top 100 Equity

    Fund (G)

    35 Essel Large Cap

    Equity Fund

    Essel Large Cap

    Equity Fund

    Essel Large Cap

    Equity Fund

    Essel Large Cap

    Equity Fund

    36 BNP PARIBAS

    LARGE CAP Fund

    (G)

    BNP PARIBAS

    LARGE CAP Fund

    (G)

    BNP PARIBAS

    LARGE CAP Fund

    (G)

    BNP PARIBAS

    LARGE CAP Fund

    (G)

    37 Quant

    Focused Fund

    Quant Focused Fund

    Quant Focused Fund

    Quant Focused Fund

    38 IDBI India Top 100

    Equity Fund (G)

    IDBI India Top 100

    Equity Fund (G)

    IDBI India Top 100

    Equity Fund (G)

    IDBI India Top 100

    Equity Fund (G)

    39 Principal Nifty 100

    Equal Weight Fund

    Principal Nifty 100

    Equal Weight Fund

    Principal Nifty 100

    Equal Weight Fund

    Principal Nifty 100

    Equal Weight Fund

    40 Taurus Largecap

    Equity Fund

    Taurus Largecap

    Equity Fund

    Taurus Largecap

    Equity Fund

    Taurus Largecap

    Equity Fund

    From the table we can see that the top three equity schemes under large cap funds are- Axis

    Bluechip Fund – Growth, HDFC Top 100 Fund - Growth Option and HDFC Index Fund - Sensex

    Plan.

    But out of these three schemes HDFC Top 100 Fund - Growth Option and HDFC Index Fund -

    Sensex Plan have the least expense ratio and make it to the second tier. Now comparing both the

    schemes on the basis of standard deviation we can conclude that HDFC Top 100 Fund - Growth

  • 20

    Option is the best performing scheme as there is less deviation in it’s three years excess return than

    HDFC Index Fund - Sensex Plan. The below diagram shows the result.

    HDFC Top 100

    Fund (G)

    Standard Deviation

    HDFC Top 100 Fund (G)

    and HDFC Index Fund - Sensex Plan

    Axis Bluechip Fund (G), HDFC Top 100 Fund (G) and HDFC Index Fund - Sensex Plan

    Top 3 schemes

    according to

    statistical

    tools

    BOOTSRAPPING PROCEDURE

    Bootstrapping is an effective tool to check the reliability and stability of model. It helps in

    estimating confidence intervals and standard errors for statistical estimates such as- median, mean,

    odds ratio, proportion, correlation and regression coefficient. Bootstrapping mainly estimates the

    sampling distribution of an estimator by resampling with replacement from the original sample.

    One can construct a hypothesis with the help this procedure and define the number of samples that

    are required to get reliable results.

    Bootstrapping can be used when one is unsure about the distribution of the data. In this study IBM

    SPSS Statistics has been used to identify approximate standard errors. These errors are then

    Expense Ratio

  • 21

    compared with normal regression errors to find the absolute difference. The p value in ANOVA

    table is less than 0.05 indicating that the model is fit. In regression table the p values of independent

    variables are less than 0.05 and hence are significant. Also, the bootstrap table shows that p values

    of these variables have increased but are still below 0.05 concluding that return of mutual fund

  • 22

    schemes are impacted by market, value of portfolio and size of portfolio.

    Bootstrapping Procedure

    Bootstrap

    Bootstrap Specifications

    Sampling Method Simple

    Number of Samples 1000

    Confidence Interval Level 95.0%

    Confidence Interval Type Bias-corrected and accelerated

    (BCa)

    Regression

    Variables Entered/Removeda

    Model

    Variables

    Entered

    Variables

    Removed

    Method

    1 hml, smb, rm-

    rfb

    . Enter

    a. Dependent Variable: excess return

    b. All requested variables entered.

  • 23

    Model Summary

    Model

    R

    R Square

    Adjusted R

    Square

    Std. Error of the

    Estimate

    1 . 787a

    . 787

    .787

    .054393922894

    089

    a. Predictors: (Constant), hml, smb, rm-rf

    ANOVAa

    Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

    1 Regression 1035.498 3 345.166 116661.417 .002b

    Residual .003 1 .003

    Total 1035.501 4

    a. Dependent Variable: excess return

    b. Predictors: (Constant), hml, smb, rm-rf

    Coefficientsa

    Model

    Unstandardized Coefficients

    Standardized

    Coefficients

    t

    Sig. B Std. Error Beta

    1 (Constant) .584 .042 14.005 .045

    rm-rf 1.038 .003 .932 395.590 .002

    Smb -1.813 .024 -.162 -74.037 .009

    Hml .549 .018 .081 29.921 .021

    a. Dependent Variable: excess return

  • 19

    Bootstrap for Coefficients

    Model

    B

    Bootstrapa

    Bias

    Std. Error

    Sig. (2-tailed)

    BCa 95% Confidence Interval

    Lower Upper

    1 (Constant) .584 -.104b .239b .813b -.077b .639b

    rm-rf 1.038 -.020b .046b .032b .909b 1.042b

    Smb -1.813 .385b .953b .045b -1.865b,c .845b

    Hml .549 -.215b .505b .028b .544b .545b

    a. Unless otherwise noted, bootstrap results are based on 1000 bootstrap samples

    b. Based on 416 samples

    c. Some results could not be computed from jackknife samples, so this confidence interval is computed by

    the percentile method rather than the BCa method.

    CONCLUSION

    Mutual funds are volatile in nature. Hence an investor should read the Scheme Information

    Document (SID) carefully before investing. Various factors such as- expense ratio, past

    performance, standard deviation and other soft factors should be considered before adding a

    scheme into portfolio. Evaluation of mutual funds by statistical tools is very essential and should

    not be ignored. From the statistical tools- Sharpe Measure, Treynor Measure, Jensen Alpha and M

    Square measure it can be concluded that the best performing Large Cap Fund is HDFC Top 100

    Fund - Growth Option.

    The significance level in ANOVA table is less than 0.05 indicating that the model is statistically

    fit. Also, the bootstrap technique indicates the reliability and validity of the model. Bootstrap

    analysis indicate that returns of mutual funds are impacted by market, value of portfolio and size of

    portfolio as the significance level of these independent variable are less than 0.05. Hence, an

    investor should consider these hard factors before selecting any mutual fund scheme.

  • REFERENCES

    Advisorkhoj. (2013-2018). Equity Large cap funds

    AUM. India. AMFI. (2013-2014). AMFI NAV

    History. India.

    Chen, L.-H. C.-H. (2017). Applying a Bootstrap Analysis to Evaluate the

    Performance of Chinese Mutual Funds.

    Control, M. (2013-2018). Returns of large cap funds. India.

    David Blake, C. I. (2014, June). New Evidence on Mutual Fund Performance: A

    Comparison of Alternative Bootstrap Methods. UK.

    IBEF. (2018). Indian Financial Service

    Industry. India. India, A. (2013-18). NAV

    History.

    K. Balanaga Gurunathan, N. S. (2014). Fama-French Three Factors Model in

    Indian Mutual Fund Market . p. 5.

    Lacs, M. A. (2013). Performance of Mutual Equity Funds in Brazil: A Bootstrap

    Analysis. 13. Long-Hui Chen, H.-H. C. (2017). Applying a Bootstrap Analysis to

    Evaluate the Performance of

    Chinese Mutual Funds. 13.

    N. S. Santhi, K. B. (2014). Fama-French Three Factors Model in Indian Mutual Fund

    Market .

    Banaglore.

    Research, V. (2018). Equity Large Cap Funds.

    SALTOLU, P. D. (2010). APPLICATION OF BOOTSTRAP METHODOLOGY IN

    FUND PERFORMANCE . 98.

    Sant, S. K. (2017). Capital Asset Pricing Model. Delhi.

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